Showing posts with label Detroit Tigers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Detroit Tigers. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 30, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Detroit Tigers

Full list of draftees

Picking 24th overall, this year marked the latest the Tigers have picked since 2012, when the signing of Prince Fielder meant they didn't get to pick until #91 overall. A casual draft fan who tunes in for the event might look at this class and see a whole lot of "over-drafting" given where many Tigers players were picked and where they were ranked on public boards, including my own. In reality, Detroit really forged its own path here, targeting outlier traits such as Jordan Yost's bat to ball, Michael Oliveto's raw power from the catching position, Malachi Witherspoon's arm strength, and so on and so forth. They also saved money for their first five picks before dumping their savings into fifth rounder Ryan Hall, seventh rounder Cale Wetwiska, and eleventh rounder River Hamilton, among others. It's a fairly prep-heavy class for an organization in the middle of a banner season at the major league level pushing its chips in to capture some future stars.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-24: SS Jordan Yost, Sickles HS [FL]
Slot value: $3.73 million. Signing bonus: $3.25 million ($476,300 below slot value).
My rank: #63. MLB Pipeline: #50. Baseball America: #82.
Kevin McGonigle's immediate success in pro ball aided a number of hit-over-power infielders in this class, not the least of which may be his first round successor in Jordan Yost. At first he didn't stand out in Florida's always-loaded recruiting class as a slap hitting skinny kid, but he showed up for his senior year looking much more like a professional ballplayer. He really started to fill out his 6' frame, adding impact to what is no longer just a slap profile. It's a gorgeous left handed swing that naturally shoots line drives around the field with grace and consistency, combining with a professional approach at the plate to create a potentially plus hit tool with very limited swing and miss. The power bumped up from well below average to simply below average in 2025, as he's still skinny but now has enough juice to get it up over outfielders heads and ambush a few baseballs over the right field wall when he gets an opportunity. The offensive profile reminds me a bit of Derek Curiel, who had great success in his freshman year at LSU this season. Defensively, Yost's plus speed gives him plenty of range at shortstop while his glovework helps make plays on all the balls he gets too. While he doesn't have the cannon arm of many big league shortstops, it gets the job done and he has a real shot to stick at the position if he keeps working. If not, the profile fits just fine at second base. The upside here is that of a high on-base type that can pop for 10-15 home runs per season at peak, though I do envision single digit totals some years given the lack of projection on his skinny frame. Drafted 24th overall, his $3.25 million signing bonus was closer to the slot value for the #28 pick.

CBA-34: C Michael Oliveto, Hauppauge HS [NY]
Slot value: $2.83 million. Signing bonus: $2.45 million ($377,300 below slot value).
My rank: #99. MLB Pipeline: #219. Baseball America: #117.
There are late risers in every draft class, then there are guys like Michael Oliveto who rocket up draft boards so quickly in the final weeks of the cycle that public lists might even miss them. That was the case with Michael Oliveto, who found himself outside MLB Pipeline's top 200 prospects and Baseball America's top 100, though industry chatter was that he could go much higher and he did. He wasn't much of a prospect early for much of his high school career and wound up committing to Yale where he could pursue high status academic endeavors. However, when he showed up at the World Wood Bat Association Championship in October and went 8-13 with five extra base hits against top pitching, scouts sat up and took notice. He continued performing this spring then put on one of the most impressive showings of the MLB Draft Combine in June, leading top brass to pay additional heed to the name their Northeast area scouts had been pitching. Oliveto already has a big league body at 6'3", 185 pounds, with additional room to fill out further. He showed off his power back at WWBA, throughout the spring, and then on the biggest stage yet at the Combine just before the draft. It's a violent, leveraged operation from the left side that could give him plus power in time. His hit tool is not nearly as proven, as scouts are mostly riding off that thirteen at bat WWBA sample and he didn't face the strongest competition on Long Island this spring. That said, he's done everything he needed to in the opportunities he's had, and the Tigers are clearly confident. Defense has been another spot of varying opinions. He's a reasonably good blocker with natural actions, but he seems to move a bit slowly back there catching Long Island pitching so he'll need to get quicker and twitcher to handle higher velocity. There is some arm strength here but, like Jordan Yost, it's not the cannon of some of his counterparts. There is upside here of a 25+ home run threat behind the plate, something that simply does not come around every day, but lots of work to get there. His slightly below slot bonus was closer to the slot value of the #41 pick.

2-62: RHP Malachi Witherspoon, Oklahoma
Slot value: $1.45 million. Signing bonus: $1.45 million.
My rank: #120. MLB Pipeline: #121. Baseball America: #93.
The Witherspoon twins have been on a journey. Coming out of Fletcher High School in the Jacksonville area, Malachi was considered a top prospect for the 2022 draft and ranked #167 on my board. He and his brother Kyson both made it to campus at Northwest Florida State JC, where Malachi's command struggles limited his innings and Kyson stepped forward as the better prospect of the two. Both brothers transferred to Oklahoma for their sophomore season, where Kyson rocketed towards becoming a first round pick of the Red Sox in this draft. Malachi was a bit quieter, but his big arm and improved polish attracted suitors in its own right and here he went about a round or two earlier than many expected. The fastball sits in the mid 90's and touches 99 at peak with some hop, though it has routinely played below its velocity and gotten barreled up, with his 5.09 ERA in 2025 marking a career-best. He can really rip through a breaking ball with a plus slider with hard snap and an above average curveball. The changeup is more inconsistent but flashes average or better potential. It's an uptempo delivery with some effort that has lead to below average command throughout his career, an additional factor that has caused his stuff to play down. Still, the 6'3" righty is a great athlete and plenty physical, giving the Tigers confidence they can streamline his delivery and get him closer to average command. Most analysts have Witherspoon pegged as a reliever with a deep, high octane arsenal, though in investing in him the way they did, the Tigers likely see a starting pitcher. There is a lot of upside here for an arm that won't turn 21 until mid-August, putting him (and his twin brother) among the youngest college juniors drafted. I initially had Witherspoon ranked a bit higher and am feeling a little bit of remorse for dropping him down over those relief concerns.

3-98: LHP Ben Jacobs, Arizona State
Slot value: $780,600. Signing bonus: $722,500 ($58,100 below slot value).
My rank: #96. MLB Pipeline: #107. Baseball America: #119.
Ben Jacobs is a fun arm that could turn out to be much more than what he might look like to the naked eye presently. He began his career at UCLA but barely pitched as a freshman, so he transferred to Arizona State as a sophomore and has been a reliable starter for the Sun Devils for two seasons. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and touches 96 at peak, a fairly average velocity band for drafted talent, but the pitch plays up with carry and hop out of the hand. Like Malachi Witherspoon, he has strong feel for spin and shows two distinct breaking balls in a big curveball with nice finish and a shorter, tighter slider that could both be above average pitches. He's broken out some very solid changeups as well, rounding out a full, pro-ready arsenal. The 6'1" lefty moves well on the mound with an athletic delivery that bodes well for future velocity gains and command, though at this point that command is fringy and has led to a 4.99 ERA over three college seasons. Jacobs has the size and arsenal to start, and under Detroit's tutelage he shuold be able to hone his command just enough to make it work. If he can't, he'll have a lot of weapons to serve to hitters in short stints, but the Tigers believe in the Southern Californian as a starter.

4-129: LHP Caleb Leys, Maine
Slot value: $577,400. Signing bonus: $574,900 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
This one is completely off the beaten path, but the Tigers have proven in this draft that they're not concerned with general prospect consensus. Caleb Leys jumped straight into the Maine rotation as a freshman in 2022 and spent two years racking up 137 innings for the Black Bears, then missed the entire 2024 season with Tommy John surgery. Back healthy in 2025, he again pitched a full season and this one was his best yet, helping him bring home the America East Pitcher of the Year award on the back of a 2.69 ERA and a 74/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 innings. Leys sits in the low 90's with his fastball and touches 95 at peak, while his tight, above average slider helps him miss bats at a reasonable clip. The distinguishing factor here, however, is the outlier extension he creates with his 6'1" frame, getting way down the mound due to excellent lower half athleticism and flexibility. Despite the extension, he has a relatively high release point and the fastball lacks life out of his hand, so the Tigers player development staff will have a very interesting project on their hands. Oftentimes you can teach better movement profiles, but you can't teach a kid to extend over seven feet down the mound. Leys has fringy command that has been inconsistent at Maine, but given his athleticism he should get closer to average command as he gets farther from surgery. Aside from the Tommy John, he has been completely healthy for three of his four seasons and totaled 204 innings in that time. If he can bring his fringy changeup along and keep throwing strikes, he could be a back-end starter. If the Tigers can find more hop for his fastball, perhaps more. Despite being a senior sign, the Rhode Island native was young for the class and only turned 22 just before the draft.

5-159: RHP Ryan Hall, North Gwinnett HS [GA]
Slot value: $430,600. Signing bonus: $997,500 ($566,900 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #271.
After saving money with their first five picks, the Tigers dumped much of those savings into fifth rounder Ryan Hall here, paying him early third round money (roughly the slot value of the #81 pick) to sign away from a Georgia Tech commitment. An ultra athlete, Hall was the starting quarterback at North Gwinnett High School in the Atlanta suburbs and the athleticism is apparent on the baseball field, as evidenced by this play on a comebacker in April. He experienced a bump in stuff this spring, too, as his fastball comfortably sat in the low 90's and touched 95 with life in games. His slider varies in shape between a deeper, two-plane offering and a tighter sweeper, but regardless it looks like an above average pitch as he learns to control its shape. There is a reasonably solid changeup in there as well, giving him three big league pitches. The 6'1" righty repeats his delivery well and has the look of a potential mid-rotation starter if everything breaks right, though of course as a teenager who has never focused on pitching full time (he is also a talented hitter with an explosive right handed swing), a lot of refinement will be needed. The Tigers are banking on the athleticism, youth, trajectory, and natural ability to carry him to a higher ceiling than most public draft boards envisioned.

7-219: RHP Cale Wetwiska, Northern Oklahoma JC
Slot value: $261,300. Signing bonus: $647,500 ($386,200 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Two rounds after spending more than half a million over slot on Ryan Hall, the Tigers gave several hundred thousand more above slot value to seventh rounder Cale Wetwiska, giving him fourth round money to keep from a Dallas Baptist commitment. If the picks above this were off the beaten path, this one may be the most of all given how much the Tigers paid him. Wetwiska, who went unranked on most every public board, spent two years at Northern Oklahoma College - Enid, a small JuCo in, well, Enid, Oklahoma that plays its schedule against other local JuCos with names like East Central, Pratt, Labette, and Carl Albert State. He's been good, but not great for the Jets, working his way into the rotation and finishing his two years with a 4.28 ERA and a 114/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.2 innings. The fastball sits in the low 90's and reaches 95 at peak, showing plenty of life through the zone as he extends down the mound. There is a hard upper 80's cutter that has been inconsistent, but flashes late cut and depth, while his changeup shows great fading action to the arm side. Fringy command has held him back to this point, which is unsurprising for a college sophomore who only turned 20 in April, but he's athletic and balanced on the mound with a good chance to streamline things in the Tigers organization. This is another #4 starting pitching prospect to throw into a pool of Tigers arms that's getting deeper and deeper.

8-249: OF Nick Dumesnil, Cal Baptist
Slot value: $216,800. Signing bonus: $214,300.
My rank: #62. MLB Pipeline: #118. Baseball America: #53.
It was certainly surprising to see Nick Dumesnil fall this far in the draft, especially given that he wound up signing for slot value in the eighth round rather than brandishing some big bonus demands that could have been thought to have artificially pushed him down. A relatively unheralded recruit, Dumesnil barely played as a freshman at Cal Baptist but still hit .333 in limited action off the bench. Taking on a full time role as a sophomore, he exploded in 2024 hitting .362/.440/.702 with 19 home runs before ascending even further in the elite Cape Cod League, slashing .311/.378/.489 with wood bats against the best pitching he'd ever faced. Coming into the season, he was considered a potential first round pick with a spot in the teens a real possibility. While his numbers took a step back from 2024, they were still solid and he took home WAC Player of the Year honors, but scouts came away much (apparently, much much) less convinced that offensive prowess could carry over to pro ball. Dumesnil produces a ton of bat speed from the right side, showing above average power in games with an explosive, whippy right handed swing that works to all fields. While he has always been an aggressive hitter, his approach played up on the Cape where he had no issues facing some of the top pitchers in college baseball. Still, he chased at a high rate in 2025 and his contact and strikeout numbers suffered because of that, leading some scouts to slap below average grades on the hit tool. Meanwhile, he is a plus runner with strong instincts that went 26 for 27 in stolen base attempts in 36 games on the Cape, outrunning strong-armed catchers with ease. That speed translates on defense, where he has shown well in center field both at Cal Baptist and on the Cape. Pessimists still see a left field profile given his fringy arm strength and the high athletic standard of big league center fielders. A move to left field would put more pressure on the bat, especially that questionable approach, though in a fourth outfielder role even a pessimist should be fine with his center field defense on a non-regular basis. The Southern California native has a lot of parallels to Mike Sirota, himself a small school outfielder who entered his draft year a potential high first round pick before struggling with swing and miss as a junior. Sirota wound up drafted by the Reds and has since been traded to the Dodgers, where he has shown extremely well in the low minors so far. Dumesnil will hope to follow that path.

11-339: RHP River Hamilton, Sam Barlow HS [OR]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $497,500 ($347,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: #123. MLB Pipeline: #99. Baseball America: #171.
Using up the rest of their bonus pool here, the Tigers are buying low on a big time talent in River Hamilton, paying him fifth round money to pitch for them in Detroit rather than for the other Tigers in Baton Rouge. Hamilton has long been a famous name in this class and at points earlier in his high school career was considered a potential first round pick. That momentum began to slow last summer and he's battled injuries throughout his senior season, leading to this fall we see here. When healthy, the fastball sits in the low 90's and peaks at 96 with riding and running action to help it carry past barrels. He shows an above average slider that gives him a second out pitch for pro ball, while his changeup is more advanced than that of many high schoolers and could become a third above average pitch in time. All of this comes from an ideal pitcher's frame at 6'3", 195 pounds, with tons of projection that could get him consistently into the mid 90's in time. He's a good mover on the mound who has long shown feel to land all three pitches where he needs them, though that delivery looked a little stiffer this spring as he's battled to stay healthy. Detroit will undoubtedly handle the Portland-area native carefully as he bulks up and hopes to put his injury issues behind him, and the payoff could be huge. A fully healthy River Hamilton is probably one of the most complete high school pitching prospects in the country once you get outside the top couple of rounds, with a chance to become a mid-rotation starter in time.

14-429: 1B Beau Ankeney, Loyola Marymount
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #395.
Beau Ankeney began his career at Grand Canyon, but appeared in just five games – without a hit – over his first two seasons before breaking into the starting lineup as a junior. He transferred to Loyola Marymount for his senior season in 2025 and broke out with the best year of his career as one of the best hitters in the WCC. Listed at 6'4", 235 pounds, Ankeney is an imposing presence in the box and he lives up to it with plus-plus raw power that helped him crush 22 home runs in 57 games in 2025. It's a violent right handed swing that sends baseballs impressive distances, the kind of real, big league pop you don't often find in the fourteenth round. His hit tool is fringier, with a relatively aggressive approach and fringy bat to ball leading to some elevated whiff and strikeout rates, though he did keep the latter under 20% in 2025. In order to reach his ceiling as a power hitting bench/platoon bat, he'll need to stay in his zone more effectively as opposing pitcher gets better and better. His glove won't help him, as he is confined to first base or, if you want to stretch it and accept below average range, left field. 

Monday, September 16, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Detroit Tigers

Full list of draftees

As has become a trend for them, the Tigers went heavy on preps in 2024, drafting high schoolers with their first three picks and then taking a five in the later rounds. They didn't sign all of those later gambles, with the biggest "one that got away" being Kansas City righty Anson Seibert on his way to a Tennessee commitment, but did pick up a few. It's a pitching-heavy class beyond first rounder Bryce Rainer, though they paused briefly to grab a trio of college bats in the middle of day two with some really interesting data profiles.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-11: SS Bryce Rainer, Harvard-Westlake HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $5.71 million. Signing bonus: $5.8 million ($87,900 above slot value).
My rank: #9. MLB Pipeline: #10. Baseball America: #10.
The Tigers grabbed a top-two high school bat for the second straight season, following Max Clark in 2023 with Bryce Rainer in 2024. Rainer hails from the same Harvard-Westlake School in the LA Hills that famously produced Jack Flaherty, Lucas Giolito, Max Fried, and now Pete Crow-Armstrong, and he has a chance to be the best of all of them. He was a two-way player for the Wolverines who could have been a day one draft pick as a pitcher, running his fastball up to 96 with the makings of a solid breaking ball and changeup, but he'll hit for Detroit. Rainer entered the spring projected in the back of the first round, then embarked on an excellent senior season that saw him elevate virtually every aspect of his game. Previously forced to sell out for power, he showed up looking more physical in 2024 and was able to access that power much more freely and easily without sacrificing any thump. He's long and athletic in the box and generates a ton of torque with his left handed swing, with a shot at plus power at the next level. At the same time, Rainer came out this spring showing much better barrel accuracy and performed against top pitching around Southern California, quelling many swing and miss questions and looking like a much more complete hitter. This is a bat that could swat 25-30 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages, which would put him in the middle of any lineup. He's always had that plus arm, but his defense looked much more fluid this spring as well and he now looks like a bona fide shortstop. Rainer moves well on the dirt and shows more speed than you'd expect given his bigger 6'3" frame, and he didn't slow down at all despite packing on more muscle last winter. There's still more projection remaining and the LA kid has a chance to be one of the best players in this class. He had previously been committed to Texas.

2-49: RHP Owen Hall, Edmond North HS [OK] {video}
Slot value: $1.89 million. Signing bonus: $1.75 million ($143,700 below slot value).
My rank: #78. MLB Pipeline: #74. Baseball America: #86.
Three years ago, the Tigers grabbed Jackson Jobe with their first round pick and while he hasn't always stayed healthy, he's looked excellent on the mound. This year, the Tigers went back to the Oklahoma City high school ranks to take another prep righty, this time Owen Hall, and signed him slightly below slot value to pull him away from a Vanderbilt commitment. Hall has long been a famous name in this class, having pushed himself into the first round conversation at various points during his high school career. While others have since passed him and he finds himself selected in the second round, he's still an elite arm. Hall's fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 98 with riding life from an over the top slot. He rips off an above average slider with nice sharp bite, then rounds out his arsenal with a decent strike-stealing curveball and an average changeup. The 6'3" righty has a clean, picturesque delivery that he repeats well and features very little wasted movement, helping him pound the strike zone with average command and above average control. Hall is very strong right now and still has projection remaining, looking like he'll be plenty durable as a starter in the long run. If there's a bone to pick with the profile, it's that his delivery might be almost too clean and lack deception, leading to his pitches playing a little true. However, between the size, strength, projection, deep arsenal, and control, Hall looks like as "safe" a starting pitching prospect as you'll find for second round money while retaining plenty of upside.

CBB-72: LHP Ethan Schiefelbein, Corona HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $1.09 million. Signing bonus: $1.8 million ($703,900 above slot value).
My rank: #88. MLB Pipeline: #94. Baseball America: #91.
Ethan Schiefelbein makes it back to back prep pitchers and three straight preps overall to start the draft, this time signing for well above slot value (roughly the value of the #51 pick) to eschew a UCLA commitment. While Bryce Rainer is up to 96 and Owen Hall is up to 98, Schiefelbein is more of a finesse lefty who sits in the low 90's and touches 94 at best. His fastball, though, plays well above its modest velocity because because of sneaky life that gives it some "invisiball" qualities while he hides the pitch well in the delivery. He has feel for a pair of nice breaking balls in a slider and a changeup, which get nice depth and miss high school bats at a high rate. Lastly, his changeup is still fairly raw but his acumen on the mound should enable him to develop it effectively in pro ball. The 6'2" lefty repeats his athletic delivery well and throws all four of his pitches with conviction, helping him pound the strike zone with above average command. The Tigers see a ton of projection on the 18 year old and think he can add significant power to both his fastball and his secondary stuff, which when combined with his pitchability and handedness could make him a mid-rotation starter.

3-85: RHP Josh Randall, San Diego {video}
Slot value: $892,600. Signing bonus: $700,000 ($192,600 below slot value).
My rank: #163. MLB Pipeline: #143. Baseball America: #223.
The Tigers made Josh Randall their third pick from Southern California out of four, and he'll be their first college pick. Randall began his career at Arizona, where he struggled to an 8.66 ERA in limited action over two seasons, then transferred to San Diego and where he served as the Toreros' ace in 2024. Another power arm, he sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 98 with a ton of run and sink from a low three quarters slot. He has a hard, short slider that gives him another above average weapon, while his firm changeup flashes average or better potential but needs further refinement. Randall gives hitters a really tough look, with his low three quarters slot and low release point playing up further because he gets down the mound very well with nice extension. While he struggled mightily with command at Arizona, he dropped his walk rate from 20% in Tucson to 8% in San Diego, now looking at least average in that regard. Now there's the question of whether he can start. Some may point to his delivery, which features a bit of a crouch and that low three quarters release point, as well as his shallow arsenal, and see him as more of a reliever. The Tigers, however, will look to his size (6'4", 240 pounds), arm strength, athleticism, and newfound command to get him through the lineup multiple times every turn in the rotation. They'll work to bring the changeup along and hold the command together – otherwise, the Southern California native has most of what it takes to start in pro ball. If not, he'll be a funky fastball/slider reliever with power stuff. In two appearances for Low A Lakeland, he allowed two runs in four innings while striking out a pair and walking none, though he did hit two.

4-114: RHP Michael Massey, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $637,200. Signing bonus: $522,500 ($114,700 below slot value).
My rank: #104. MLB Pipeline: #109. Baseball America: #94.
Michael Massey, not to be confused with the Royals infielder of the same name, has had a bit of an up and down ride but brings plenty of arm talent to Detroit. He began his career at Tulane, then transferred to Wake Forest after one season and was nearly untouchable out of the bullpen as a sophomore in 2023. Massey's stock rose when Wake Forest announced he'd be a part of the rotation in 2024, with top fifty projections rolling in preseason and many thinking he could rise into the first round. However, his stuff and command took a step back in longer outings and he watched his strikeout (47.2% to 32.1%) and walk (9.9% to 15.1%) rates move heavily in the wrong directions. After reaching 98 in the bullpen, Massey's fastball sat more in the low 90's and topped out around 94-95 in longer outings, though it retained its elite riding life with a true north-south profile. His slider looks plus at its best, and while he threw it harder in short stints in 2023, it still showed nasty late bite in 2024 and missed a ton of bats. He added a truer downer curveball in 2024 as well which he struggled to command at times, but it missed plenty of bats as well when he executed it in the zone. Massey doesn't use his changeup much in games but has shown a decent one in bullpen sessions. The 6'5" righty hides the ball well with short arm action and uses his size to get elite extension down the mound, giving his stuff that much more hop out of his hand. While he repeated his delivery well in short stints, the command ticked back in 2024 and looked fringier. The Tigers could still try him out as a starter given his size and arm strength, though he'll need to continue to be methodically stretched out to get the most out of his high octane stuff. If he moves back to the bullpen, he could lean back on that fastball/slider combination that served him so well in 2023 and move quickly.

5-147: SS Jack Penney, Notre Dame {video}
Slot value: $462,300. Signing bonus: $397,500 ($64,800 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #500.
With their sixth pick, the Tigers finally went for a college bat, and they wound up with the metrically intriguing Jack Penney. Penney was a two year starter and three year contributor at Notre Dame, where he never posted eye popping stats but showed very well under the surface. A hit over power type, the Boston-area product takes some of the best at bats in the class with an extremely disciplined approach that led to ultra low chase rates and an impressive 16.0% walk rate in 2024. On top of that, he makes plenty of contact and struck out in just 13.9% of his plate appearances, making for a really well-rounded hit tool. That advanced bat played up on the Cape, where he hit .284/.376/.404 with five home runs and a 39/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games. While he's content to drive the ball around the field for singles and doubles, he has a sneaky quick bat that produces fringe-average power and he can really turn on the ball for average pop to his pull side. Given his pitch selection and bat to ball aptitude, I could see a slightly more power-oriented approach working in pro ball and he has a shot for 10-15 home runs per season to go with high on-base percentages at peak. The bat looks even better considering his glove, as he'll likely stick on the infield. Shortstop may be a stretch with average defensive tools, but he could profile very well at second or third base. That's some nice upside for a fifth rounder signed a bit below slot value. He got a brief cup of coffee at Low A Lakeland after the draft, slashing .255/.367/.392 with and 18/9 strikeout to walk ratio over fourteen games.

6-176: SS Woody Hadeen, UC Irvine {video}
Slot value: $354,100. Signing bonus: $300,000 ($54,100 below slot value).
My rank: #153. MLB Pipeline: #130. Baseball America: #401.
This is one of the most extreme profiles in the entire draft, and it's certainly a fun one. Metrically speaking, it's also one of the best hit tools in the entire class. Out of 145 college hitters on the Baseball America 500, no hitter came even close to matching 8.4% chase rate, with the next best being Samford's Garrett Howe (now with the Guardians) at 12.1%. Meanwhile, his 89.4% contact rate was second only to Texas Tech's Kevin Bazzell (now with the Nationals), who was just ahead at 89.5%. This is a man who, frankly speaking, never ever chases and when he does swing, never ever whiffs. It's probably the most extreme contact-oriented approaches in the class, as Hadeen just slaps the ball around the field with no regard for lifting or turning on it and just searches for holes a la Luis Arraez. A switch hitter, he has an elite eye and elite hand eye coordination, showing some similarities to last year's Pirates second rounder (and Saginaw native/Michigan State alum) Mitch Jebb. Not only did he get on base at a .524 (!) clip for UC Irvine this spring, he actually hit .424 (14-33) in a tiny eight game sample in the Cape Cod League back in 2022. Of course there's a tradeoff, and Hadeen lasted until the sixth round because of his power. Not only did he have (by far) the lowest chase rate and the second highest contact rate out of 145 hitters, he also had the lowest 90th percentile exit velocity at 98.7 MPH. That's 30 grade power, and he hit just one home run in 155 career games in Irvine. Hadeen is almost exclusively a singles hitter whose entire offensive value will come from his on-base percentage. Listed at 6'2", he's big enough and whips the bat around well enough to probably tack on a little additional power in pro ball, but that's not his game. Meanwhile, he's an above average runner with strong instincts to deploy his speed well, which helps him on both sides of the ball. He can play anywhere on the field, with shortstop a real possibility even if his arm is a bit stretched there. The Southern California native most likely projects as a light hitting utility infielder. Luis Arraez comparisons, as I noted above, will be common and would represent his absolute ceiling if everything breaks right. In a short four game stint for Low A Lakeland, he picked up one hit in nine at bats while walking twice and striking out once.

9-266: RHP Zach Swanson, Toutle Lake HS [WA] {video}
Slot value: $195,100. Signing bonus: $722,500 ($527,400 above slot value).
My rank: #206. MLB Pipeline: #178. Baseball America: #160.
The Tigers made one more splash here in the ninth round, grabbing another expensive high school arm by going half a million over slot value (late third round money, roughly pick #101) to sign Zach Swanson away from an Oregon State commitment. Swanson starts things off with a low 90's fastball that gets up to 95, playing up with riding life. His high spin slider is his best pitch, coming in with late bite that dives under bats and looks above average. He has great feel for it and is willing to throw it in any count, a separator for a high school arm. His changeup, meanwhile, is a distant third pitch and will need significant refinement in pro ball. Swanson is a very good athlete but throws with considerable effort on the mound, showing heavy head whack that impacts his command and leads to bouts of inconsistency. The delivery will likely need to be overhauled as well in pro ball, and that could unlock much more upside than expected. If the Tigers can iron him out, he has mid rotation upside, with a fallback option as a fastball/slider reliever.

15-446: OF Zach MacDonald, Miami [OH] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
If Zach MacDonald reaches the majors, I believe he would be the first Michigander since Eric Haase (Westland) to play for the Tigers. MacDonald grew up Portage, a suburb of Kalamazoo, where he attended Portage Central High School. He spent the last three seasons at Miami of Ohio, where he has long shown power but put it all together in 2024. A local favorite of Midwest area scouts, MacDonald provides nice upside for a college pick this late in the draft, with plenty of tools that could make him an impact player if he pulls everything together. He creates nice separation in his right handed swing with a leveraged stroke that gets long through the zone and lifts the ball with authority. He previously struggled with swing and miss and struck out at a 31.3% clip in 2023, an extremely high number especially for a hitter in a mid major conference, but cut that number down to 20.2% in 2024. That's still a bit of an elevated number, and while his barrel accuracy has improved dramatically, he can still get under the ball and may be susceptible to quality fastballs up in the zone. MacDonald is a solid runner as well and should be able to hold is own in all three outfield spots, which helps his projection as a dynamic fourth outfielder. He'll have to continue to clean up his swing and miss as he makes the jump from the MAC to pro pitching, with age working in his favor as he didn't turn 21 until after the draft. He didn't quite find his footing in a short eight game stint at Low A Lakeland, where he hit .161/.235/.290 with an 18/3 strikeout to walk ratio.

Thursday, September 21, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Detroit Tigers

Full list of draftees

It was an extremely high school-heavy draft class for the Tigers, who drafted nine preps overall and signed seven of them, including four in their first five picks. It appears they'll be playing the long game, in a sense creating the next wave of talent that should be up sometime in the 2026-2027 range. The class is heavy on position players, heavy on talent that can stick in the dirt (just one outfielder drafted after Max Clark), and especially early, heavy on advanced hitters. I like most of the picks here and I think Detroit is moving in the right direction with this class.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-3: OF Max Clark, Franklin Community HS [IN] {video}
Slot value: $8.34 million. Signing bonus: $7.7 million ($641,700 below slot value).
My rank: #4. MLB Pipeline: #5. Baseball America: #5. Prospects Live: #5.
The Tigers popped the first high school position player off the board, and in doing so they brought in as dynamic a talent as you're going to find. Max Clark is already all over the internet as a social media-savvy up and coming baseball star, and he has the talent to match. He's not huge at 6'1", 190 pounds, but he's ideally proportioned at that size with plenty of lean muscle and an ultra projectable, long limbed frame. He has as long and as decorated a track record as any player in the prep class, with extremely consistent production against the top arms in his class going back a long time now. He takes great at bats, uses the whole field, and never tries to do too much at the plate with a clean left handed swing. Hit over power for most of his prep career, he has been hitting the weight room hard and has begun to turn on the ball more often, with at least average power now but likely to be above average power in the future as he fills out. Right there, you have not just a potential but a likely plus hitter with above average power, but it doesn't stop there. Clark is a plus-plus runner that moves gracefully on both sides of the ball, playing extremely well to his gap to gap hitting approach that should enable him to hit plenty of doubles and triples. Throw in his plus-plus arm and strong instincts, and you have a potential plus defender in center field to boot. It's an extraordinarily well-rounded profile that's a bit reminiscent of an early career Curtis Granderson or Grady Sizemore. To top it off, Clark is extremely competitive and well versed in the spotlight, with a likable demeanor and mature work ethic. It's tough to live in the spotlight like that (of course I am not speaking from experience here), and it will continue to be tough for the all-American kid, but he has handled it with grace to this point and I'd certainly bet on him to continue to achieve the lofty expectations around him. He hit well in the Florida Complex League but struggled a bit with an aggressive promotion to Low A Lakeland, overall slashing .224/.383/.376 with two home runs and a 25/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games.

CBA-37: SS Kevin McGonigle, Monsignor Bonner HS [PA] {video}
Slot value: $2.31 million. Signing bonus: $2.85 million ($540,500 above slot value).
My rank: #31. MLB Pipeline: #33. Baseball America: #25. Prospects Live: #21.
This is another fun profile that I'm curious to follow. Kevin McGonigle is one of the best pure hitters in the country, easily one of the most pro ready bats in the entire high school crop. The Tigers signed him away from an Auburn commitment here for most of the money they saved on Max Clark, rolling in for around the slot value of the #28 pick here at #37. McGonigle takes exceptional at bats, looking to do damage early with aggressive hacks but adeptly toning it down and making adjustments as he gets deeper in. You can't fool him with the same pitch twice. Showing a compact left handed swing, he uses the whole field effectively and can turn on the ball for some moderate pull side power to keep pitchers honest. It's certainly a hit over power profile, but one that could flirt with .400 on-base percentages while knocking 15-20 home runs per season at peak. The Philadelphia native also moves very well at shortstop, showing great body control and quick twitch athleticism despite average speed. However, he may be pushed to second or third base in the long run because he likes to set his feet before he throws, lacking the pure arm strength to make those tough throws on the run especially to his right. It's a profile that may not have the highest ceiling due to a lack of power projection at 5'10", but he has a chance to be a significant big league contributor for a long time. He hit the ground running in his pro debut, slashing .315/.452/.411 with one home run and a 10/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Lakeland.

2-45: SS Max Anderson, Nebraska {video}
Slot value: $1.91 million. Signing bonus: $1.43 million ($476,550 below slot value).
My rank: #44. MLB Pipeline: #91. Baseball America: #71. Prospects Live: #61.
I love this pick, especially since the Tigers saved nearly half a million dollars to bring in a very legitimate second round talent with a signing bonus closer to the #57 slot here at #45. Max Anderson is a career .350 hitter at Nebraska that has never stopped hitting, including breaking out for a massive junior season in which he slashed .414/.461/.770 with 21 home runs and a 29/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. He's also a two year performer in the Cape Cod League, sitting at .297/.356/.405 over a two year sample against elite pitching. Anderson has some of the best bat to ball skills in the class, showing the ability to find the fat part of the barrel no matter where it's pitched, including outside the zone. That's a very good thing because he's an extremely aggressive hitter that chases over 30% of the time, so if he's a good bad ball hitter, have at it. Not only that, but Anderson is one of the rare amateur bats that thrives against both velocity and offspeed stuff, showing the ability to recognize pitches, find his timing, and do damage no matter the location nor the pitch type. That should ease his transition to pro ball considerably despite his propensity to chase out of the zone. Once he makes contact, which is awesome, he has sneaky above average power that could give him 20+ home runs per season to go with his high averages, though he hasn't proven that power so much with wood just yet. The Hastings, Nebraska native is not a great athlete so shortstop probably won't happen despite the Tigers drafting him there. With a fringy arm and below average speed, even third base may be a challenge, so Anderson could end up at first base when it's all said and done. Finding a way to make it work at second or third base would obviously elevate the profile, but fortunately he has plenty of bat to profile even at first base. He hit .289/.345/.445 with two home runs and a 26/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 32 games at Low A Lakeland.

3-76: LHP Paul Wilson, Lakeridge HS [OR] {video}
Slot value: $945,100. Signing bonus: $1.7 million ($754,900 above slot value).
My rank: #111. MLB Pipeline: #51. Baseball America: #51. Prospects Live: #116.
Paul Wilson represents the Tigers' largest over slot bonus in this class, getting the money for the #50 pick here at #76 to sign away from an Oregon State commitment. His father, Trevor Wilson, was a reliable starting pitcher for the Giants in the late 80's and early 90's, and now Paul will get his shot. Well-known in the Pacific Northwest already with a presence on the national stage, he really pushed himself up boards with a strong spring and earned his large signing bonus. He sits in the low to mid 90's and was reaching the upper 90's in the spring, getting more hop on his fastball to help miss bats. He shows nice feel to spin the ball with both a slider and a curveball, with the curve especially looking like a potential putaway pitch in pro ball. There's a changeup, too, with some fading action but overall more of an average pitch at this point. The 6'3" lefty looks pretty filled out as is and does throw with some effort from a short arm delivery, which could lead to relief risk. However, he did a better job this spring at holding his command together and maintaining his peak velocity and stuff, leading to increased optimism that he can start, and he's plenty physical enough to do so. The Tigers are buying big arm strength with feel to spin the ball and a positive trajectory, which is even better when you're getting it all from the left side.

4-107: SS Carson Rucker, Goodpasture Christian HS [TN] {video}
Slot value: $627,900. Signing bonus: $772,500 ($144,600 above slot value).
My rank: #135. MLB Pipeline: #132. Baseball America: #297. Prospects Live: #190.
The Tigers kept at it with the high school picks here, pulling in the younger brother of Twins prospect Jake Rucker. While Jake reached AA this year, Carson will just be getting started with another over slot bonus to keep him away from a Tennessee commitment, where he would have played at his brother's alma mater. Carson is a well rounded hitter with a strong, projectable 6'2" frame that he has begun to fill out. He takes powerful, leveraged hacks from the right side to produce above average power, though the swing can get a little long at times and create some swing and miss. It's nothing egregious, though, and he's a solid pure hitter that can handle advanced stuff while still doing damage. He's solid at shortstop, but he'll likely get pushed to third base by a springier defender, especially if he slows down with age, but he should stick on the left side of the infield. It's a nice profile with a lot going for it that could develop into a solid every day contributor as he progresses. The bloodlines are nice to have as well, though it should be noted that the Nashville-area native is on the older side for a high school senior and turned 19 just a month after the draft. He hit .242/.390/.364 with one home run and a 9/6 strikeout to walk ratio in his nine game Florida Complex League debut.

5-143: RHP Jaden Hamm, Middle Tennessee State {video}
Slot value: $442,200. Signing bonus: $397,500 ($44,700 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #218. Baseball America: #186. Prospects Live: #140.
Jaden Hamm jumped on the map with a strong fall practice last year and really established himself with an eleven strikeout one hitter against Evansville in March, though in all he was inconsistent and was blown up in a few starts. Overall, he showed a 5.31 ERA and a 93/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 79.2 innings and the Tigers are buying the guy they saw when Hamm was at his best. The fastball sits in the low 90's and can touch 97 in short stints, with huge riding action that makes it an above average pitch when he locates it. He adds a hammer curveball and a nice fading changeup, though those two pitches are less consistent than his fastball. The 6'1" righty has long arm action and comes from an over the top release point, which some hitters can get a good luck at especially if he's behind in the count and they're sitting on the fastball. Hamm does generally do a good job of locating that fastball but is less consistent in that regard with his offspeed stuff. The Tigers will want to focus on helping the Middle Tennessee native find more consistency with those offspeed pitches, which could make him a solid back end starter. If not, the fastball/curveball could play very well out of the bullpen especially as he likely adds a tick of velocity in that role. He looked extremely sharp in his pro debut, tossing twelve shutout innings (one unearned run) while striking out twelve and walking just one between the Florida Complex League and Low A Lakeland.

6-170: C Bennett Lee, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $342,400. Signing bonus: $297,500 ($44,900 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #428. Prospects Live: unranked.
It may look like a backup catcher profile on the surface, and it probably is, but Bennett Lee is a fun prospect to get into your system regardless. He burst onto the scene with a massive freshman season at Tulane in 2021 (.440/.527/.600, 4 HR), then came back to earth a little bit as a sophomore. He transferred to Wake Forest in 2023 and held down the starting catcher role for the Omaha-bound Demon Deacons, slashing .303/.435/.472 with seven home runs and an even 32/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games. It's not a standout offensive profile, but it's one that gets it done. Starting from a quiet setup, he uses the whole field and find the barrel consistently for hard contact, profiling for fringy raw power overall. He's very patient in the box and draws a ton of walks, helping him get on base at a .426 clip over his three year college career and providing a nice baseline for his offensive value. The offensive bar is lower for catchers, especially if they can defend like Lee. He has an above average glove back there with a strong arm, showing off his chops by working with the best staff in college baseball this spring. A hard nosed competitor, he'll be a great add to the clubhouse that will make his pitchers better, which is exactly what you want in a backup catcher. He showed off his patience by slashing .200/.444/.217 with an 11/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games at Low A Lakeland.

7-200: SS John Peck, Pepperdine {video}
Slot value: $267,000. Signing bonus: $222,500 ($44,500 below slot value).
My rank: #189. MLB Pipeline: #243. Baseball America: #150. Prospects Live: #176.
John Peck is certainly an interesting profile. He had a huge sophomore season in 2022 (.361/.417/.578, 7 HR) but struggled on the Cape over the summer (.182/.248/.245) and couldn't replicate his big sophomore season in 2023, when he slashed .272/.353/.441 with six home runs and a 51/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games. Peck is physically gifted if nothing else. Not huge at six feet tall, he has explosive bat speed from the right side that produces sneaky plus raw power that you rarely find this late in the draft, much less from a shortstop. However, he doesn't tap that power much in games and never hit more than seven home runs in a season at Pepperdine because he struggles to square the ball up and rarely turns on it with authority. The swing gets swoopy and he's prone to chasing breaking balls, leading to a high strikeout rate that was really exacerbated on the Cape, where he struck out 31.8% of the time. I'm far from sold on Peck's ability to make it work against pro pitching, but like I mentioned, you can't teach that kind of bat speed and when it comes from a quality defender, it's worth a shot here in the seventh round. The Southern California native has the arm to stick at shortstop, though he's not as twitchy as you'd like at that position and he may have to move to third base. Still, he should be at least an average defender there and it helps buy the bat some time to pull it together. There could be some Javier Baez in the profile if it comes together, though Baez is a freak athlete that far surpasses Peck in that regard. He hit .204/.391/.224 with a 13/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Lakeland.

12-350: RHP Andrew Dunford, Houston County HS [GA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $367,500 ($217,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
It was a big year for Houston County High School in the Macon area, with senior star Drew Burress and former Houston County Bear turned Georgia Bulldog Jaden Woods primed to do well on draft day. Burress priced himself out of the draft and will attend Georgia Tech, while Woods signed with the Pirates for slot value in the seventh round. So as it turns out, the highest signing bonus of any player from that school (which also recently produced Orioles pitcher DL Hall and Washington Commanders quarterback Jake Fromm) went to Andrew Dunford, who was unranked on every major public board. He's hard to miss on the diamond, standing 6'7" and already packed with muscle. The fastball sits in the low 90's and tops around 94, but with his size and athleticism, he's sure to add more velocity. He gets running and sinking action on it as well. His slider looks good when he finishes it, though it regularly backs up on him and needs more consistency. The same can be said for his changeup, which looks promising but again needs consistency. Despite his size, Dunford moves very well on the mound and stays around the zone. It's a frame you can absolutely dream on, with a huge ceiling as he works forward in his development. That kind of size and athleticism together is not commonly found. He tossed four shutout innings while striking out three and walking two in the Florida Complex League.

15-440: C Brady Cerkownyk, Connors State JC [OK] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $397,500 ($247,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
Brady Cerkownyk is an off the radar pick from the professional baseball perspective, but you certainly knew who he was if you were facing Connors State, a small JuCo in eastern Oklahoma. To say he terrorized the Oklahoma JuCo pitching ranks would be an understatement – in 55 games, he slashed .470/.555/.985 with 27 home runs, 23 doubles, and an 18/31 strikeout to walk ratio, including a .552/.639/1.162 line at his home Biff Thompson Field in Warner. After the season, he took a brief turn in the MLB Draft League and hit .243/.356/.324 with a 10/5 strikeout to walk ratio over eleven games. There's not a ton of public information out there about Cerkownyk, but we'll do our best. He's a 6' catcher with a very well rounded bat, controlling the strike zone very well and rarely swinging and missing against Oklahoma JuCo pitching. The strikeout rate rose from 7.3% at Connors State to 22.2% in his short MLB Draft League stint, and we have to expect that it's going to be a sizable jump in competition going into pro ball. He's got some thump in the bat too with a powerful right handed swing, but it remains to be seen whether he can tap it consistently in pro ball. The Toronto native has a strong arm behind the plate and gets out of the crouch quickly, though I haven't seen any video of his glovework. He's due to regress from his 1.540 OPS at Connors State, but even half that would be a nice find for a catcher. He played just two games in the Florida Complex League, picking up one single in six at bats while striking out once and getting hit by a pitch.

Tuesday, August 16, 2022

2022 MLB Draft Review: Detroit Tigers

Full list of draftees

The Tigers went exclusively the college route this year, loading up on bats early with five in their first six picks before transitioning to mostly pitching for the latter portion of day two and day three. Aside from that, there are no clear trends here, but I do really like that group of hitters they were able to put together early in the draft. Jace Jung has a very good chance to be the best hitter in the entire draft, while Peyton Graham has some of the most upside of any college player outside the first round.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.

1-12: 2B Jace Jung, Texas Tech. My rank: #9.
Slot value: $4.59 million. Signing bonus: $4.59 million.
The Tigers started off their 2022 draft class with a bang, picking up the man that has been perhaps college baseball's best all-around hitter the past couple of seasons. The younger brother of Rangers prospect and former top ten pick Josh Jung, Jace is a career .328/.468/.647 hitter at Texas Tech and finished 2022 with a .335/.481/.612 line, 14 home runs, and a 42/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games. Talked about throughout the top ten picks for much of the past two seasons, he got a little banged up while starting every single game for the Red Raiders and slumped a bit to close out the season, which may be why he was still available at twelve. The San Antonio native has a unique setup at the plate, holding his hands high behind his ear with the bat head cocked back towards the press box behind home plate, but personally I like it a lot because it really shortens the path his barrel needs to travel to reach the ball. He's already right there in the hitting position and wastes very little movement getting going. He stands out for an extremely patient approach, helping him walk in fully 20% of his plate appearances this spring as pitchers barraged him with offspeed stuff while he happily took first base time and time again. When you do give him something to hit, he won't miss it, with an easy plus hit tool that helps him make consistent hard contact to all fields. Jung has plenty of pop, too, producing huge exit velocities with great frequency, and that power also plays to all fields. Together, that's a hitter that could blast 25-30+ home runs a year with very high on-base percentages, fitting right into the upper third of the order. It's all about the bat here, though he should be able to stick in the dirt in some capacity. Drafted as a second baseman, he has enough range to be serviceable there, but he isn't the explosive athlete that can take away hits from the hole. He could also see some time at third base, where his range is a better fit, though he lacks the cannon arm of his older brother. Still, expect Jung to hit his way through the minors very quickly. He's already at High A West Michigan, where he's slashing .226/.314/.290 with seven strikeouts to four walks over eight games.

2-51: SS Peyton Graham, Oklahoma. My rank: #31.
Slot value: $1.51 million. Signing bonus: $1.8 million ($289,400 above slot value).
The Tigers got another Big 12 bat in the second round, but Peyton Graham is a very, very different player than Jace Jung. He has been a priority follow for area scouts throughout his time at Oklahoma, then after a so-so start to the 2022 season, he really warmed up with the weather to finish at .335/.417/.640 with 20 home runs, 34 stolen bases, and a 69/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games. Graham is an ultra projectable athlete that combines abundant physical gifts with on-field performance and rapidly improving feel for the game. Built like a string bean at 6'3", he already has plenty of lean strength packed into that lanky frame and should only continue to get stronger. He already shows plus power that plays to all fields, showing the ability to get his arms extended and really drive the ball with force all over the zone. He makes plenty of contact right now, and it's usually very hard contact, though he is an aggressive hitter that has a tendency to chase and he walked in just 8.6% of his plate appearances this spring. As Graham moves up through the minors, pitchers will be more and more keen to take advantage of his approach and that will need to be a major point of emphasis going forward. The North Texas native did look better in that regard as the season wore on, but he's still too much of a free swinger. Graham is plenty athletic enough to play shortstop, where he shows both the range and arm strength to be a weapon out there, though the game can speed up on him a little bit and his feel for the position is just a tick behind. Just like with hitting, the Tigers will want to get him plenty of reps out there and help him make the routine play more consistently. I don't think it will come to this, but if he does move off the dirt, I think his plus speed could make him an asset in center field. Graham has serious All Star upside if he can tighten up his plate discipline, and I did see a couple of Trea Turner comps thrown out there (though Graham has more power and less plate discipline at this stage of his career). Regardless, this will be a lot of fun to track, and he is slashing .240/.406/.320 with nine strikeouts to six walks through seven games at Low A Lakeland, already showing a more patient approach in a small sample.

4-117: RHP Troy Melton, San Diego State. My rank: #147.
Slot value: $517,900. Signing bonus: $517,900.
Troy Melton was an interesting day two candidate for the 2021 draft, but an up and down season that saw him finish with a 6.14 ERA, in addition to his youth relative to the class, led him to return to San Diego State for 2022. With a 2.07 ERA and a 67/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.1 innings, the results were much better this time around, and Melton still doesn't turn 22 until December so he's age appropriate for this draft. He sits in the low to mid 90's with a fastball that has gotten up to 97, getting good extension as well that brings his release height down and helps the ball jump on hitters a little extra. His slider is an average pitch and could use to add some power, while his changeup is a third pitch that's a bit behind the others. Last year, he got hit hard when he left balls over the plate, with long arm action that made it easy for hitters to pick pitches up out of his hand. A shorter arm stroke in 2022 helps him hide the ball better, and his ERA dropped more than four runs. The 6'4" righty is a great athlete that does not throw with too much effort, filling up the zone well with at least average command. Given his athleticism and ability to make adjustments, there is a lot for the Tigers to play with here as they work to sharpen up his offspeed stuff, so there is a chance he develops into a mid rotation starter. For now, he looks more like a #4 or #5 given his lack of a true out pitch. The Southern California native could move relatively quickly.

5-147: 3B Luke Gold, Boston College. My rank: #100.
Slot value: $386,900. Signing bonus: $386,900.
This is a nice pickup in the fifth round for the Tigers, who are getting a very good hitter even if he's not as explosive as a guy like Jace Jung or Peyton Graham. Luke Gold showed very well in the Cape Cod League last summer (.267/.363/.523), then put together a quietly solid 2022 campaign by slashing .308/.401/.557 with nine home runs and a 28/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games in a very strong ACC. Every draft, I find a few guys that are best described as "just a pro hitter," and Gold fits that. He grinds out at bats and makes a ton of contact from the right side, showing very little swing and miss while consistently spraying hard line drives to all fields. All that contact keeps his walk rates down, but you don't have to worry about him chasing and helping pitchers out. There is some power from a simple, quick, right handed swing, and he tapped it with wood bats on the Cape where he homered six times in 27 games. In all, it's a very nice offensive profile that could produce around 15 home runs a year with high batting averages and steady, consistent performance. He will have to hit, because he's more ballplayer than athlete and projects as a fringy defender no matter where you put him. The Albany-area native played mostly second base at Boston College, where his fringy speed limited his range, and it looks like the Tigers drafted him as a third baseman to see if he has just enough arm strength to make it work. If Gold slows down at all with age, he could be pushed to first base in the long run, where he may not have enough power to play every day (especially with Spencer Torkelson around). You're never going to get guaranteed starters for slot value in the fifth round anyways, so I still really like the floor here and think Gold will contribute sooner rather than later. He's already been deployed at Low A Lakeland, where he has two hits in eleven at bats through four games with an even three to three strikeout to walk ratio.

6-177: SS Danny Serretti, North Carolina. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $293,900. Signing bonus: $293,900.
Danny Serretti, like Troy Melton, was a well-known name that had a chance to go on day two of the draft, in 2021, but he opted to head back to school and try his luck again. He did manage to put up significantly better numbers this spring, with a .365/.437/.567 slash line, ten home runs, and a 38/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games landing him in the sixth round. A switch hitter, he has been much more disciplined this spring and really cut down on his swing and miss, helping him do damage with a lot of hard contact. There is some sneaky power to the pull side in his 6'1" frame, and he does drive balls into the gaps for extra base hits regularly. It's not a flashy offensive profile, but one that can handle pro pitching and make enough impact to keep moving up. He's been the UNC shortstop for a few years now, with smooth actions in the dirt and perhaps just enough arm to stick there. The New Jersey native's athleticism helps him on both sides of the ball, as he moves really well in the box, on the basepaths, and at shortstop. It's a pretty coachable profile that has a very good shot to wind up a utility infielder down the line. He's off to a red hot start for Low A Lakeland, where he's slashing .455/.647/.818 with a home run and just one strikeout to six walks through four games.

7-207: OF Seth Stephenson, Tennessee. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $229,800. Signing bonus: $300,000 ($71,200 above slot value).
Seth Stephenson makes it two switch hitters in a row for the Tigers, and he went a little above slot to grab himself a nice $300,000 bonus in the seventh round. Stephenson spent two years at Temple JC in Texas before transferring to Tennessee, where he put up a great season and hit .339/.408/.508 with four home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 41/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games. He stands out most for his speed, with plus-plus wheels that help him fly around the bases and the outfield. Listed at a skinny 5'9", there is very little power in the tank and he hit just four home runs this year despite playing at a hitter-friendly home park, but he does make a ton of line drive contact and lets his speed do the rest. He's a relatively aggressive hitter that wants to make things happen quickly, so he doesn't walk much and his strikeout rate is a bit elevated as well. He's played some infield in college but will likely stick with the outfield in pro ball, where his speed makes him an asset in all three positions. To reach his ceiling as a speedy fourth outfielder, the Austin-area native will need to manage the strike zone a bit better so that he can cut down on the swing and miss, giving his speed more opportunity to go to work.

10-297: RHP Trevin Michael, Oklahoma. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $153,000. Signing bonus: $50,000 ($103,000 below slot value).
If you want quick to the big leagues, it might not get much quicker than Trevin Michael, the oldest player in the entire draft at nearly 25 years old. After graduating from Oklahoma's Piedmont High School in 2016, he redshirted his freshman season, spent two years pitching for Northern Oklahoma JC, then two years at Lamar, then finally came to Oklahoma in 2022 as a sixth year senior. Serving as the Sooner closer, he was nothing short of dominant this spring with a 2.89 ERA and a 95/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 71.2 innings and really stepping up during the College World Series run. He sits in the mid 90's and regularly touches the upper 90's, with some hop that makes it jump on hitters. A rare four pitch college reliever, he adds three secondaries that will all be put to good use in pro ball. His short, hard slider has some sweep to it, while his more top to bottom curveball gives him more depth and his changeup fades nicely away from left handed hitters. An absolute bulldog on the mound, he attacks the strike zone relentlessly and that makes up for average command. The 6'2" righty did make a couple of starts for Oklahoma this spring and performed well in extended outings, but given his age, he'll likely be a pure reliever for the Tigers where they can rush him up to the big leagues as quickly as possible. Expect him in Detroit sometime in 2023, though for now he's starting off in the Florida Complex League and has struck out two of the four batters he's faced.

13-387: OF Dom Johnson, Kansas State. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $180,000 ($55,000 against bonus pool).
Dom Johnson was on scouts' radars out of high school in 2020, but made it to campus at Oklahoma State and barely played in 2021. He transferred to Kansas State after the season and thrived in Manhattan, slashing .345/.419/.593 with twelve home runs and a 48/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. Working with a line drive swing, he makes a lot of hard contact with a quick stroke from the right side and likes to turn on balls when pitchers come in. That's where his power comes from, because at 5'9" he doesn't quite have the thump to put the ball over the fence the other way on a consistent basis. He's also a plus runner that has a chance to play center field if he can get a little more refined out there, giving him a very solid fourth outfielder projection. To reach that, he'll also need to get more refined at the plate, where he has a tendency to chase good breaking balls. I saw him play a couple games in person at Texas Tech, where Cubs fifth rounder Brandon Birdsell struck him out three times in a row on the same pitch – a good slider down and away. The Tigers are buying the athleticism and trajectory here, because even if he has a ways to go in his development, he's miles ahead of where he was a year ago.

Monday, August 23, 2021

2021 MLB Draft Review: Detroit Tigers

Full list of draftees

The Tigers injected a ton of mostly pitching talent this year, taking eight arms in their first ten picks. They came away with the top high school pitcher in the class as well as by some accounts the second best college pitcher in the class (fifth on my board). While the previous wave of Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Alex Faedo, Beau Burrows, Tarik Skubal, and Kyle Funkhouser has been fairly hit and miss so far, Detroit is hoping to lay the groundwork for the next wave of pitching with names like Jackson Jobe, Ty Madden, and Dylan Smith, then possibly catch some lightning in a bottle with a more under the radar guy like Tyler Mattison, Tanner Kohlhepp, or Jordan Marks. While the system has no shortage of corner bats, Izaac Pacheco adds another one with a huge ceiling as well. It's kind of funny to write because I'm not the world's biggest Ty Madden fan, but getting him at #32 is still an absolute steal no matter where you land on him, so that's easily my favorite pick of this draft class for them. One last interesting trend I noticed was that their second, third, and fourth picks all grew up in the Houston area.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.

1-3: RHP Jackson Jobe, Heritage Hall HS [OK]. My rank: #8.
Given that all four top prep shortstops were still on the board, many Tigers fans were unhappy with this pick and while I wouldn't have taken Jackson Jobe in this situation either, there's no denying that the Tigers got their man and that Jobe is an absolute stud. He entered the spring as arguably the second best pitching prospect in the high school class behind Andrew Painter, but the combination of a slow start for Painter and a hot one from Jobe flipped that convincingly and by July, he was the top prep arm by most accounts. Jobe is relatively new to pitching and earned serious draft buzz as a shortstop, but has rapidly and continually improved since stepping on the mound. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can run it up to 97-98, all without a ton of effort. His slider is his best pitch, coming in with ridiculous spin rates that cause it to suddenly disappear at the last second, combining close to ideal power and shape and flashing plus-plus. Jobe also spins a sharp, above average curveball that is fully distinct from his slider, and he also throws one of the better changeups in the prep class. Everything plays up because he fills up the strike zone consistently, with above average control and average command that should only get better with more experience. The 6'2" righty is a great athlete that repeats his delivery well and holds his stuff deep into games, and he still has some projection remaining. Combining the power, deep arsenal, athleticism, and feel for pitching in general, there really isn't much to dislike here, with the only knock on Jobe (aside from his demographic) perhaps being his age, as he turned 19 a few weeks after the draft. That's really not a big issue given how new he is to pitching and how quickly he's taken to it. Prep right handers are very, very risky, but the Oklahoma City native has true top of the rotation potential and the Tigers are all in. Committed to Ole Miss, he instead signed for $6.9 million, which was $321,200 below slot value but still marked the second largest bonus in the class behind only Jack Leiter.

CBA-32: RHP Ty Madden, Texas. My rank: #18.
By ranking Ty Madden 18th, I was actually one of the low guys on him, as he came in at #9 at MLB Pipeline, #12 at Baseball America, and #13 at Prospects Live. He had one of the most complete profiles in the college pitching class and was largely expected to be off the board somewhere in the 8-15 range, and I don't think the Tigers even dreamed he'd be available at pick 32. Even if I was a bit lower than most on his outlook pre-draft, there's no denying that Detroit got incredible value here, especially given he didn't require a massive above slot bonus. Madden largely met the sky-high expectations set on him coming into the season, posting a 2.45 ERA and a 137/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.2 innings perhaps highlighted by a complete game, two hit shutout of Houston while striking out fourteen on March 5th. He was hit just a touch harder in Big 12 conference play (3.71 ERA, 60/20 K/BB in 53.1 IP), but he was still largely consistent and went at least six innings in sixteen of his eighteen starts and only allowed more than two earned runs on four occasions. An absolute workhorse, he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has run it up to 99, holding that velocity deep into games. Madden adds a slider and a changeup which switch back and forth as to which is better, with the slider looking plus on some days with late bite and the changeup looking above average on others. The 6'3" righty fills up the strike zone with both and has one of the best combinations of stuff and command in the class, effectively deploying his three pitches to work through lineups multiple times. Really, it's almost the perfect profile and perhaps five to ten years ago, he would have been considered a slam dunk top ten pick with a shot at the top five. The only knock here is approach angle, as the Houston-area native comes from a very high release point that puts steep angle on all of his pitches. That used to be a desired trade, but nowadays teams are looking for flatter angles that enable the fastball to ride up in the zone, whereas Madden is mostly confined to pounding the bottom of the zone with all of his pitches. The game is always changing and perhaps this once again becomes a valued profile, and either way, he certainly has the command and stuff to be effective living around the knees. He projects more as a #3 starter than an ace, but has a very high floor and has proven fully durable in Austin. He signed for $2.5 million, which was $242,700 above slot value and roughly slot for the 28th overall pick.

2-39: SS Izaac Pacheco, Friendswood HS [TX]. My rank: #47.
The industry was a bit split on Izaac Pacheco, but his fans saw one of the best power bats in the country just demolish local pitching this spring after a solid, if at times uneven, run through the summer showcase circuit. He produces massive raw power from the left side, a product of the strength, bat speed, and leverage he can produce from his 6'4" frame. That enables him to put on a show in batting practice and in games when he gets a hold of one, which he did frequently this spring. There are more questions about the hit tool, as he has a tendency to pull off the ball looking for pull side home runs and strides towards first base rather than towards the pitcher in his load. Additionally, Pacheco can chase at times as well and swing over the top of breaking stuff. Because of that, he might move a bit more slowly at the outset, but the Tigers believe he could be a few mechanical tweaks and a refined approach away from flipping from a below average to an above average contact hitter. If he does, the power will certainly play, and he has a chance for 30+ a year if he makes enough contact. Drafted as a shortstop, Pacheco probably fits better at third base in the long run because he's not all that quick, but he is excellent a vacuuming up the balls he can get to and with his plus arm, he could be a plus defender at third base. So really, the only question here is on the hit tool (admittedly the most important tool), and if Detroit can get that figured out, it's a great all-around profile for the second round. Rather than attend Texas A&M, the Houston-area native signed for $2.75 million, which was $843,200 above slot value and roughly the value of the 25th overall pick. Through 14 games in the FCL, he's slashing .200/.322/.300 with a home run and 22 strikeouts.

3-74: RHP Dylan Smith, Alabama. My rank: #68.
Detroit went back to the college pitching ranks and drafted a third kid in a row from the Houston area, scooping up Dylan Smith after a huge breakout year at Alabama. After two unremarkable years pitching out of the Crimson Tide bullpen, he ratcheted things up with a 3.84 ERA and a 113/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 98.1 innings as a starter this spring, capping it off with a complete game win over Rider in the Ruston Regional. Like Ty Madden, he was a bit more hittable in conference play (4.89 ERA, 68/15 K/BB in 57 IP) and especially prone to the long ball. The stuff is nasty, with Smith sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and getting up to around 95-96, and he shows great feel to spin the baseball with a distinct slider and curveball that are both above average. The slider is a bit ahead of the curve, while he flips in a solid changeup that should continue to work for him in pro ball. For now, the control is ahead of the command, but he does pound the zone and with an athletic 6'2" frame and delivery, he'll likely continue to tighten it up within the zone. That should help with his home run issues, and he has a chance to pitch in the middle of the Detroit rotation in the not too distant future. There's certainly a lot to work with and a lot working for him already. The Houston-area native signed for $1.115 million, which was $270,800 above slot value.

4-104: RHP Tyler Mattison, Bryant. Unranked.
Tyler Mattison had a chance to be drafted last year, but when the draft was shortened to five rounds, those hopes largely went away. It ended up being a blessing in disguise for Mattison, who had the best year of his four year Bryant career this spring, posting a 2.46 ERA and a 95/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.1 innings and earned a much higher draft selection than he would have had. He may be a fourth year player but he's extremely young for the class and more or less age appropriate for the class below, so age isn't really much of a factor here and we can evaluate him along the same lines as most of the third year class. His fastball has been steadily ticking up and now sits in the low to mid 90's with some 98's and 99's, coming from a steep angle similar to the similarly-named Ty Madden. He adds a curveball that shows good depth and is coming along nicely, as well as a newer slider and a more established changeup that looks above average at times. The 6'4" righty has proven durable so far and significantly improved his command in 2021, giving the look of a #4 starter. He didn't face the strongest competition in the Northeastern Conference but the stuff is trending up quickly and should be able to rise to the challenge in pro ball. The far Upstate New York native signed for $400,000, which was $160,000 below slot value.

5-135: RHP Tanner Kohlhepp, Notre Dame. My rank: #154.
Tanner Kohlhepp is taking a long road to Detroit, having grown up in Wisconsin, begun his career at Tennessee, transferred to Iowa Western JC, and now finished off at Notre Dame just a few miles south of the Michigan border. He really found his stride in South Bend and put up a career year with a 3.08 ERA and a 65/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 61.1 innings mostly out of the Irish bullpen, often working two, three, four innings at a time. Kohlhepp shows a mid 90's fastball that can hit triple digits in short stints, adding a whole host of secondaries in a slider, cutter, and changeup. None stands out as a true plus weapon, but coming from his funky sidearm slot, they all miss bats darting in different directions while the big fastball keeps hitters from cheating to get to them. There's some effort in his funky operation that may keep the 6'4" righty from starting long term, and he'll definitely want to get better about hitting his spots within the zone, but his size and deep arsenal do give him a chance. He gets both lefties and righties out consistently and holds his stuff over multiple innings. Even if he does end up back in the bullpen, where he's fully comfortable, in my opinion there's no harm in running him out there as a starter and just seeing what happens. He is very old for his class and turned 22 in May. The Eau Claire native signed for $400,000, which was $14,000 below slot value.

7-195: LHP Brant Hurter, Georgia Tech. My rank: #195.
Brant Hurter had a chance to pitch his way into early round consideration in 2020, but Tommy John surgery took that opportunity away and he had to try again this year. Now nearly 23, he's coming off an up and down but all around solid campaign in which he posted a 3.90 ERA and an 83/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 85.1 innings, numbers that were really marred by a couple of tough starts against Louisville and Notre Dame. He sits around 90 with his fastball that can get up to 94-95 and adds a slider that looks plus on its best days, and usually at least above average. Hurter mainly sticks with those two pitches but can flip in a changeup when he needs to, and if he's going to start in pro ball, he should be able to incorporate that pitch more into his arsenal. The big 6'6" lefty has an interesting operation in which he doesn't really extend that far down the mound with his lower half, working around and then over the top of his plant leg to put some angle on the ball. Regardless, he consistently fills up the strike zone and aside from the Tommy John, he has proven durable so far and has thrown 187.1 innings in his three healthy seasons. Given his age and lack of velocity, I'd probably like to see him pushed to the bullpen and just work off the hopefully bumped-up fastball and slider, where he could move quickly. The Atlanta-area native signed for full slot value at $241,000.

9-255: RHP Garrett Burhenn, Ohio State. Unranked.
Though they haven't taken a player from Michigan or Michigan State since Jake Bivens and Grant Reuss in 2017 (neither of whom made it out of complex ball), the Tigers drafted an Ohio State Buckeye for the third consecutive season after Andrew Magno in 2019 and Dillon Dingler in 2020. Burhenn was on scouts' radars in the Midwest as an underclassman, but he really pushed himself forward by reinventing himself over the pandemic. After showing pretty ordinary stuff in 2019 and 2020, everything got a little crisper in 2021 and he finished with a 3.81 ERA and a 91/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.1 innings. His fastball sits in the low 90's with good spin, while his slider is an above average pitch and his brand new curveball works well off the slider. He also throws a changeup that looks like a solid average pitch. Burhenn has always pounded the strike zone, but he tended to get hit hard when he left his average stuff over the plate, but now that everything has improved a half grade, he's missed more bats and more barrels. The 6'3" righty has a durable frame and now has 192.2 collegiate innings under his belt despite the pandemic robbing him a full middle season, and his simplified delivery should help him stick as a back-end starter. The Indianapolis native signed for full slot value at $160,800.

16-465: RHP Jack Anderson, Florida State. Unranked.
This one might seem a bit under the radar, but Jack Anderson always caught my eye despite having more famous teammates. He had a strong year out of the Florida State bullpen and put up a 2.48 ERA with a 45/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 innings, usually working about one to two innings at a time. Anderson works with a low 90's fastball, a sharp mid 80's slider, and a changeup that gives him a third average or better pitch. He pounds the strike zone with everything and after walking three in his season-opening tuneup against North Florida, he went on a run of fourteen consecutive appearances without a free pass spanning 27.2 innings and struck out 35 in that span. I'm not usually a fan of college relievers, but I'll cut some slack in the sixteenth round despite the Tampa native's lack of a plus pitch because I think he'll make everything work really well together. If the Tigers can perhaps bring another tick of velocity out of his fastball, which I think is possible given his sturdy 6'3" frame, he has a chance to get into some high leverage situations down the line. He signed for $125,000.

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

2020 Draft Review: Detroit Tigers

1-1: 1B Spencer Torkelson, Arizona State
2-38: C Dillon Dingler, Ohio State
CBB-62: OF Daniel Cabrera, Louisiana State
3-73: SS Trei Cruz, Rice
4-102: 3B Gage Workman, Arizona State
5-132: 3B Colt Keith, Biloxi HS (MS)

I love this class for the Tigers, and not just because of Spencer Torkelson. With a very pitching-heavy farm system led by guys like Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, and Matt Manning, the Tigers picked up six bats (five college) to help balance it out, and they were aggressive about it. In spending more than $600,000 above their bonus pool, they were able to max out the amount of talent they could pull in without losing future draft picks, which to me is absolutely the right move considering the draft is by far the most cost-effective way to acquire talent. The Orioles and Mariners underspent their bonus pools and came away with missed opportunities, while the Tigers, like the Blue Jays, put themselves in a really good position. Of course I love Torkelson's bat, but the class goes beyond that. Dillon Dingler in the second round was a steal, as was Daniel Cabrera in the second competitive balance round, and I love that the Tigers were willing to go over slot to get each of their last four picks. They finished it off with Colt Keith, who to me is the bargain of the draft, not just the bargain of the class.
Full index of team reviews here.

1-1: 1B Spencer Torkelson, Arizona State (my rank: 1)
Spencer Torkelson is the first college first baseman ever to go first overall, and with good reason. Typically, teams try to get up the middle players in this spot to minimize risk, but the Sonoma County, California native is the best amateur hitter on the planet and the Tigers did the right thing by bringing him on. He has put up absolutely unreal numbers during his time at Arizona State, slashing .337/.463/.729 with 54 home runs and a 104/110 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games, earning the Barry Bonds treatment with 31 walks in just 17 games in 2020. He also tore up the elite Cape Cod League in 2018 (.343/.474/.733, 10 HR) when he was just 18 years old, driving home the point. With Torkelson, we're talking true plus-plus raw and game power that plays against high level pitching, against velocity, quality breaking balls, and with wood bats. He can easily drive the ball out to any field with a combination of huge natural strength and a very quick bat that deploys that strength very efficiently. If you took away all of his power, you could still confidently call Tork a plus contact hitter because of how easily he finds the barrel. Throw in that he's very young for a college junior and doesn't turn 21 until August, and you have the complete package as a hitter. It's an MVP caliber bat that projects similarly to Pete Alonso as a realistic median projection, and the ceiling is as high as you'd like it to be. Because he was a part of the best infield in college baseball at Arizona State, the Sun Devils never really considered playing him anywhere but first base, but he's naturally athletic and the Tigers have been trying him out at third base here and there in summer camp. Does he stick there? Maybe with some work, but if I'm the Tigers, unless I truly believe in his defense at the hot corner, I'm not messing with it and I'm just letting him hit his way to the big leagues. Even at first base, he should provide value as an above average defender there. His roughly $8.42 million signing bonus was $1,100 above slot value and broke Adley Rutschman's record by more than $300,000. Pre-draft profile here.

2-38: C Dillon Dingler, Ohio State (my rank: 32)
Many Michigan fans are probably having a hard time coming to terms with having to root for Ohio State's catcher, but it's okay, the Cleveland Indians signed Michigan catcher Joe Donovan in the undrafted free agent market so it's a fair swap. And Dingler is such a great talent that Michigan fans will be able to get over it sooner or later. He grew up in North Canton, Ohio, and was more solid than spectacular over his first two seasons with the Buckeyes, slashing .267/.362/.396 with seven home runs in 102 games. However, evaluators always had a feeling there was more in the tank and it all came out at once in his last two games in Ohio State red, blasting four home runs in ten at bats against North Florida. Suddenly, he went from a safe backup catcher profile to a legitimate starting catching prospect. He has plenty of natural raw power in his 6'3" frame that he's now learning how to tap, and that's on top of a very professional approach at the plate that enables him to control the strike zone very well. Dingler has routinely been noted for his athleticism behind the plate, with the ability to quickly pounce on baseballs in the dirt and easily move side to side to block wild pitches. With a quick transfer and a strong arm, he projects to not only stay behind the plate but be above average in that regard. Sure, Dingler's actual track record of hitting at a high level is short, but he's hit at a satisfactory level for a long time and the Tigers believe they're catching him right on the upswing. Either way, the bar for catcher offense is very low, so even if he regresses more to his pre-2020 form, he still has a very good shot at playing every day. That's a really nice floor when you consider the upside of a 20-25 home run bat (perhaps more) with good on-base percentages, which would place him in the top couple of catchers in the league. His $1.95 million signing bonus was right at slot value. Pre-draft profile here.

CBB-62: OF Daniel Cabrera, Louisiana State (my rank: 37)
Given the existence of the LSU, Auburn, Missouri, Clemson, Mempis, and Princeton Tigers, just to name a few, odds were that somebody would go Tigers to Tigers in this draft. That guy was LSU's Daniel Cabrera, and the Detroit Tigers couldn't be happier to get him this late in the draft. Cabrera was a well-known draft prospect coming out of the Baton Rouge high school ranks in 2017, but his high bonus demands meant that he stayed home to play at LSU, coming out the other end more or less a similar prospect. Over three years with the Tigers, he slashed .305/.392/.518 with 22 home runs and a 102/72 strikeout to walk ratio in 140 games, including a hot .345/.466/.500 start to the 2020 season. I mentioned that Dingler has a professional approach at the plate, but Cabrera's approach is his calling card. He makes very consistent contact with a clean left handed swing, managing the strike zone very well against top competition. While there isn't a ton of power in his 6'1" frame, he uses what he has well and drives the ball around the field very consistently, running into his share of home runs here and there. On the other side of the ball, he's an ordinary defender who fits in left field. Cabrera isn't the flashiest prospect, but he's a high probability big leaguer with a very good chance to end up a full time starter, projecting for perhaps 15-20 home runs a year and high on-base percentages. He signed for $1.21 million, about $110,000 above slot value. Pre-draft profile here.

3-73: SS Trei Cruz, Rice (my rank: 141)
Out of the Tigers' six picks, I think this was the one that left most evaluators, myself included, scratching their heads a little bit. I don't hate it or anything, but I'm not going to jump and immediately endorse it like I am with their other five picks. Trei Cruz is hoping to join his grandfather Jose Cruz (1970-1988) and father Jose Cruz Jr. (1997-2008), who combined to play 3,741 major league games and hit 369 home runs in the majors. Trei is old for his class and was eligible as a sophomore last year, but wanted to return to Rice for his junior season and it looks like that paid off for him. Over three years, he hit .296/.406/.484 with 16 home runs and a 127/93 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games for the Owls. Proponents look at Cruz and see a wide array of skills that will serve him well in pro ball, while detractors might see that same skill set as a "jack of all trades, master of none" profile that could cause him to wind up as a tweener. He has a lot of wiry strength in his 6'2" frame that produces solid raw power, while his strong plate discipline enables him to put up pretty consistent numbers wherever he goes. A switch hitter, the swings are a little bit funky from both sides of the plate, and while he usually gets his hands in a good hitting position by the time he starts his swing, he can get caught in between and that causes some minor swing and miss. It's a similar story on the other side of the ball. He shows good feel for playing the infield, but his range is a little stretched at shortstop and he might be forced to second or third base down the road. Together, it's a lot of "solid, but" in his overall profile: solid raw power, solid plate discipline but some minor mechanical hitches, solid defense but limited range. The Tigers clearly see this as an opportunity, and they think if he can take a step forward in just one or two areas, they'll have themselves a legitimate major leaguer. I do think something will have to tangibly improve though if he wants to be more than a decent utility infielder. Cruz signed for $900,000, which was $42,600 above slot value.

4-102: 3B Gage Workman, Arizona State (my rank: 59)
I mentioned that Spencer Torkelson was part of the best infield in college baseball and had no need to try anywhere else. Gage Workman was a big reason why Torkelson was confined to first base, with an above average glove at third base. Workman graduated from high school in the Phoenix area a year early with plans for going on his Mormon mission, but I guess that never materialized because he played three years at Arizona State and is now a Detroit Tiger. He had a big sophomore season with a .330/.413/.528 slash line, eight home runs, and a 68/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games, and a solid run through the Cape Cod League set him up as a potential top 50 pick heading into 2020. However, he was a bit more up and down with a .250/.316/.471 line, three home runs, and a 21/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games in 2020, and that gave his stock a bit of a market correction down to more of the second/third round range. Workman shows nice raw power from both sides of the plate, albeit a little more from the left side. At 6'4", he projects to add more as he grows into his frame, and he's young enough to get smoother with that right handed swing as well. He has a very aggressive approach at the plate that limits his offensive production at times, though he's very athletic and still makes a lot of hard contact anyways. His glove is above average and makes him a very valuable defender at third base, one who can easily handle additional ground in the shift, and he might even be able to slide to shortstop if needed in a pinch. It's a little more projection than you typically want to do with a college bat, but he won't turn 21 until October and is therefore the age of a college sophomore, and his combination of strength and athleticism gives him a lot of upside. At best, perhaps 25-30 home runs a year with decent on-base percentages, and that's why the Tigers paid $1 million for him, about $428,600 above slot value. Pre-draft profile here.

5-132: 3B Colt Keith, Biloxi HS, MS (my rank: 64)
The Tigers finished out their draft class with a player who, in my opinion, is one of the biggest steals in the draft. Colt Keith grew up in Arizona but moved to Mississippi's Gulf Coast before his junior season of high school. He was one of the top two-way players in the country, but it looks like the Tigers are drafting him as a hitter only, and in my opinion that is the right move. Keith is a very well rounded hitter who makes very consistent contact from the left side, with a great track record of hitting against high level competition. Not just a contact hitter, he has a lot of wiry strength in his 6'3" frame and has begun to tap more power, looking average in that regard now but easily projecting for above average power down the line. His swing is pretty short and he doesn't get a ton of extension, but his hands are very quick and generate a lot of force without much wasted movement. Helping him get his arms extended a bit more consistently could help him tap even more power, and the combination of mechanical tweaks and added strength could land him with plus power down the line. That's definitely an optimistic projection and probably more of his ceiling than most likely outcome, but it's certainly a possibility and he does have that above average hit tool to go with it. He's played shortstop in high school and handled it adequately, though the Tigers see him moving over to third base and working to be above average there, much like fourth rounder Gage Workman. As a pitcher who can hit 93 on the gun, his arm is certainly an asset. He's a little bit old for the class with an August birthday, though giving up pitching should help him make up for some of that time. Keith was committed to Arizona State (like Torkelson and Workman) and I was very surprised to hear he signed for just $500,000, which was $73,400 above slot value. Huge bargain. Pre-draft profile here.

Undrafted: 1B Trevin Esquerra, Loyola Marymount (unranked)
Trevin Esquerra is a first baseman/outfielder out of Loyola Marymount, and he's an interesting athlete as both a switch hitter and a switch thrower, though he just sticks to throwing left handed these days. He broke out for the Lions as a junior last year and kept hitting this year as a senior, combining for a .314/.388/.595 slash line, 19 home runs, and an 86/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 games over the last two seasons. He generates a lot of leverage with his 6'1" frame that plays into above average power in games, though his swing is a little smoother from the left side and can get long on the right side. There is also a lot of swing and miss in his game, hampered by an aggressive approach for most of his college career. He was more patient in 2020 and drew 14 walks in 16 games, but the swing and miss was still there as he struck out 20 times. Since he won't provide much defensive value, the San Diego native probably projects as a part time player who can come up with some power off the bench.

Undrafted: OF Austin Langworthy, Florida (unranked)
College baseball fans will recognize this name immediately. Austin Langworthy was never a star, but he appeared in 198 games for the Florida Gators over four years and has already teamed with dozens of pros like Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Jonathan India, and Alex Faedo. He was at his best from 2018-2019, when he hit .286/.384/.449 with 14 home runs and an 86/70 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games, though he was off to a slower .246/.316/.348 start in 2020. Langworthy has a quick left handed swing that sprays line drives from gap to gap, though at 5'11", there isn't a ton of home run power. He's not the toolsiest player and probably makes for a better college profile than pro profile, but he has a chance to work his way up as a fourth or fifth outfielder with a wide array of skills.