Showing posts with label Ronny Cruz. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ronny Cruz. Show all posts

Monday, August 4, 2025

Reviewing the 2025 Washington Nationals Trade Deadline

Traded: Michael Soroka (CHC), Kyle Finnegan (DET), Amed Rosario (NYY), Alex Call (LAD), Luis Garcia (LAA), Andrew Chafin (LAA)

Received: Christian Franklin (CHC), Ronny Cruz (CHC), Josh Randall (DET), R.J. Sales (DET), Clayton Beeter (NYY), Browm Martinez (NYY), Sean Paul Liñan (LAD), Eriq Swan (LAD), Jake Eder (LAA), Sam Brown (LAA)

Yet again, it was a fire sale for the Nationals at the deadline. While no superstars were dealt like in years past, they still shipped off six major league assets in exchange for ten mid and low-caliber prospects. On day one, none project to be a James Wood, a CJ Abrams, or a MacKenzie Gore, but the law of averages means that in a group of ten, some will certainly over perform and there could be a few legitimate pieces here that are contributors on the next contending Nationals team. Let's dig in, trade by trade.

Trade 1 (7/26)
Yankees receive:
    - 3B Amed Rosario (age 29): 5 HR, .270/.310/.426, 1 SB, 105 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR
Nationals receive:
    - RHP Clayton Beeter (age 26): 14.79 ERA, 12.92 FIP, 2.45 WHIP, 1/4 K/BB in 3.2 IP
    - CF Browm Martinez (age 18): 3 HR, .404/.507/.632, 13 SB, 187 wRC+ in DSL
In a trade deadline where the vast majority of activity occurred within the last 24-48 hours before the deadline, this trade feels like ancient history. Mike Rizzo had many shortcomings, but finding diamonds in the free agent rough was not one of them. Amed Rosario signed with the team for just $2 million and put up a very respectable season in Washington, seeing frequent starts at second and third base while providing a league average bat. The Yankees needed another infield bat to help an offense that suddenly went quiet, and Rosario's keen ability to hit lefties (.299/.333/.483 pre-trade) landed the Nationals a decent return. Clayton Beeter was drafted by Dodgers 66th overall back in 2020 out of Texas Tech, then went to the Yankees for Joey Gallo in 2022. He put up excellent numbers in the upper minors 2023 and 2024, but injuries slowed his ascent and he never quite caught on in the majors with just five relief appearances over two seasons. Now 26 years old, he has primarily pitched at AAA this season to good, but not great results. Primarily a starting pitcher for most of his minor league career, a high walk rate has finally forced him to the bullpen where he projects to stay long term. The stuff is pretty impressive and has missed a ton of bats in the upper minors and should play in the majors so long as he can stay ahead in counts. While the Nationals sent him to AAA Rochester after the trade, I would expect him to be on the short list to earn some innings in Washington in the near future and I could see him sticking around as a solid mid-leverage reliever. The command will likely never come together enough for a high leverage role but I feel it more likely than not that he makes himself a regular in the Nationals bullpen in some capacity in the near future. Browm Martinez, meanwhile, is the prototypical "rookie ball lottery ticket." Just 18 years old, he signed with the Yankees for $130,000 out of the Dominican Republic last year and held his own as a 17 year old in the Dominican Summer League in 2024. Repeating the level in 2025 as many kids do, he has been one of the best hitters on the island by hitting .404 with three home runs and just eight strikeouts in eighteen games. It's a tiny sample in a league where stats don't mean terribly much in the first place, but you really can't perform any better than he did and that's certainly not a bad thing. Listed at an undersized 5'10", 160 pounds, he'll look to bulk up in the Nationals' system as any kid his age would (remember he's the age of a graduating high school senior). Still, he has made a ton of contact and even hit for some power already, pointing to perhaps more offensive upside than his size would indicate. A centerfielder by trade, he has shown well out there and could stick. Martinez is many years away and a lottery ticket in its truest sense, so Nationals fans will likely have forgotten all about Amed Rosario's 47 games by the time he reaches the majors in the late 2020's.

Trade 2
Angels receive:
    - LHP Andrew Chafin (age 35): 2.70 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 1.60 WHIP, 18/12 K/BB in 20 IP
    - RHP Luis Garcia (age 38): 4.10 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 1.53 WHIP, 31/18 K/BB in 37.1 IP   
Nationals receive:
    - LHP Jake Eder (age 26): 4.91 ERA, 5.23 FIP, 1.31 WHIP, 15/9 K/BB in 18.1 IP
    - 1B Sam Brown (age 23): 5 HR, .244/.350/.358, 2 SB, 117 wRC+ at AA
This trade briefly grabbed headlines because it involved three major leaguers, but ultimately it's likely to be a nothing-burger. The Angels acquired two low leverage, late career relievers in exchange for one younger low leverage, early career reliever and organizational depth at first base, a position that doesn't really require organizational depth. Given that Andrew Chafin joined the Nationals in May and Luis Garcia in July, getting anything in return for the 35 and 38 year olds, respectively, is a win. They'll join the Angels to add some depth and keep the team competitive going forward. As a fun fact that I just learned today, the Nationals previously acquired Garcia in 2009 – for Ronnie Belliard! The primary return for the Nationals here is lefty Jake Eder, a 26 year old reliever who was actually born on the exact same day as Clayton Beeter – 10/9/1998. Also drafted in 2020, he was taken by his hometown Marlins in the fourth round out of Vanderbilt and immediately put up a huge 2021 at AA Pensacola, establishing himself as a legitimate prospect. However, Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2022 and he was traded to the White Sox for Jake Burger in 2023, then was sent on to the Angels for cash before the 2025 season, posting ERA's above 6.00 in the minors in each of the past three seasons. He has been developed through and through as a starting pitcher, never making a relief appearance in the minors, but has served as a long reliever in his brief major league time. He has held better command than Beeter, but the stuff is a touch lighter and he likely doesn't have enough weapons to work through a major league lineup multiple times. While he probably is what he is at this point, he could stick around for a few seasons in a long relief role and will give the Nationals some bullpen depth going forward. Meanwhile, Sam Brown is likely organizational depth more than anything else. A twelfth round pick out of Washington State in 2023, the Angels sent him straight to AA Rocket City where he struggled to hit for impact in 2024. Repeating the level in 2025, he has been incrementally better with an on-base-driven offensive profile. Brown is not a thumper with just nine career home runs and a .325 slugging percentage in 218 games, and likely never will be with high ground ball rates. He does, however, have a very professional approach at the plate that limits strikeouts and leads to a ton of walks. Given his limited defensive profile, it's unlikely he ever breaks through to a major league role without finding more impact in the bat. If the right combination of injuries happens in front of him and he's able to continue getting on base at a high clip, there is a chance he earns a cup of coffee in the majors. He's a disciplined enough hitter to handle major league pitching pretty confidently, with the main limitation being that not much may happen once the ball does come off his bat.

Trade 3
Tigers receive:
    - RHP Kyle Finnegan (age 33): 4.38 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, 32/14 K/BB in 39 IP
Nationals receive:
    - RHP Josh Randall (age 22): 3.92 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 1.32 WHIP, 70/15 K/BB in 80.1 IP at A-/A+
    - RHP R.J. Sales (age 22): 2.71 ERA, 2.76 FIP, 1.12 WHIP, 63/17 K/BB in 66.1 IP at Low A
From a fan perspective, this is probably the Nationals' biggest trade of the deadline. Kyle Finnegan was a veritable Mike Rizzo masterclass, having never reached the majors after seven seasons in the A's' minor league system and signing with the Nationals as a minor league free agent in 2020. It was a bit unusual that he signed a major league contract with the team, but it worked out in spades as he went on to save 108 games in five and a half seasons, the second most in Washington Nationals history behind Chad Cordero. He'll join the Tigers for the stretch run as a high leverage reliever that could be on the "last pitch of the World Series" watch list. In return, the Nationals received a pair of low minors pitchability arms from the Tigers' 2024 draft class. Josh Randall was a third round pick out of the University of San Diego last year and has spent most of 2025 at Low A Lakeland, where he controlled the strike zone well but was more hittable than you'd hope for a college arm in Low A. He made one successful start at High A West Michigan before the trade and will report to High A Wilmington to start. Interestingly, Randall was more of a power arm early in his college career and has gradually shifted to becoming a command and control type. The fastball still comes in hard, touching 98 at peak, but its run and sink hasn't missed a ton of bats and also hasn't generated as many ground balls as hoped. He adds a solid slider and was very effective in Low A, but he'll need to miss more barrels going forward to stick in the rotation. There's a shot he does so and becomes a back-end starter, though the likelier outcome is that of a multi inning reliever whose stuff takes a step forward in short stints while maintaining above average command from a sidearm slot. R.J. Sales, the Tigers' tenth round pick in the same draft out of UNC Wilmington, has had a similar start to his career. He's pitched exclusively at Low A Lakeland, where he has been excellent over sixteen appearances (fifteen starts) albeit often against younger competition. He'll start off at Low A Fredericksburg, but I expect the Nationals to promote him to Wilmington before the end of the season. Sales has somewhat lighter stuff but has shown above average command to dice up Low A hitters. Unlike Randall, a sidearmer, Sales comes straight over the top and "looks" more like a starter. He has been up to 96 and has a similar projection as a back-end starter/long reliever. Between the two, expect one to exceed expectations and one to fall short, so hopefully we'll get one back-end starter out of this pair. If either Randall or Sales can stick around and give the Nationals a few full seasons in the back of the rotation, even if the other never reaches the majors, that's a successful trade for half a season of Kyle Finnegan.

Trade 4
Cubs receive:
    - RHP Michael Soroka (age 27): 4.87 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, 87/24 K/BB in 81.1 IP
Nationals receive:
    - OF Christian Franklin (age 25): 8 HR, .265/.393/.427, 11 SB, 117 wRC+ at AAA
    - SS Ronny Cruz (age 18): 2 HR, .270/.314/.431, 10 SB, 91 wRC+ in ACL
While Kyle Finnegan has the most history in Washington, Michael Soroka was probably the biggest name traded from the Nationals from a production standpoint. Long ago a top prospect for the Braves, injuries derailed his career for a few seasons from 2020-2023 before he made a small comeback with the White Sox and eventually re-established himself as a legitimate major league arm this season in Washington. Just on a one year deal, he'll head to Chicago and fill whatever role the Cubs need from him, whether that's in the back of the rotation or in a hybrid relief role. Coming back to Washington is probably the best prospect package they got from any trade. Christian Franklin was initially a top prospect for the 2021 draft, but fell to the Cubs in the fourth round after an inconsistent junior season at Arkansas. Throughout his slow climb through the minors, he has shown extremely strong plate discipline leading to very high on-base percentages and reasonable strikeout rates. Long lauded for his raw power despite a modest 5'9" frame, he hasn't been able to consistently elevate the ball and has hit just 26 home runs in 307 minor league games. Set to turn 26 in the offseason, he may not still have the lofty upside he once possessed, but the raw traits are certainly there. He crushes left handed pitching and certainly has the batting eye to handle major league pitching in general, and if the Nationals can find a way to get him elevating the ball better (which they do not have a successful history of doing), he has a chance to be a real weapon at the plate. More likely, he profiles as a platoon outfielder who can take on a significant role and inject some juice into the Nationals' lineup against left handed starting pitchers while holding his own against righties on the days he gets those starts. While Franklin is just about ready, Ronny Cruz is much farther off. He signed with the Cubs as a relatively unheralded third round pick last year out of Miami Christian High School in Florida, then held his own in a 48 game stint in the Arizona Complex League this year as an 18 year old. There is massive upside here, albeit a long ways off. Cruz has huge raw power, blasting a baseball 108 MPH off the bat as a 17 year old at the 2024 MLB Draft Combine. While that didn't translate to home run power this year, with just two long balls in those 48 games, he did put up ten doubles and six triples making loud noises off his bat. He's understandably raw as a hitter with an unrefined approach at the plate and a lack of barrel accuracy, so the Nationals will let him take it slowly and he may spend all of 2026 at Low A Fredericksburg. Given that he was extremely young for a high school senior when he was drafted, he'll have plenty of time. Defensively, Cruz could end up at any number of positions and has a lot of physical and skill development ahead of him to determine where that may be.

Trade 5
Dodgers receive:
    - OF Alex Call (age 30): 3 HR, .274/.371/.386, 1 SB, 117 wRC+, 0.9 fWAR
Nationals receive:
    - RHP Sean Paul Liñan (age 20): 2.78 ERA, 3.29 FIP, 1.09 WHIP, 101/31 K/BB in 74.1 IP at A-/A+/AAA
    - RHP Eriq Swan (age 23): 4.43 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, 77/46 K/BB in 69 IP at High A
This one might be the most interesting trade the Nationals made. Alex Call will be 31 by the time this season ends, but he still has four years of team control remaining so he'll hit free agency for the first time at age 35 if the Dodgers tender him each year. I wouldn't think the Nationals were necessarily looking to move him, but ultimately they received an offer they couldn't refuse. Call isn't the flashiest player, but he has performed better and better against left handed pitching throughout his short career to the point where he'll fill an important role even on an always-deep Dodgers roster. Meanwhile, his outfield defense will keep him earning regular playing time to go along with being a .300+ hitter against lefties. It's a nice get for Los Angeles if he can keep from regressing. Sean Paul Liñan signed for just $17,500 out of Colombia in 2022, but gradually elevated himself into one of the top young pitchers in the Dodgers' low minors. From a crouched delivery with long arm action and nice extension, he slings the ball to the plate with a visually appealing delivery and plenty of deception. The fastball only sits low 90's but gets on hitters quick from that low slot, but his dastardly changeup steals the show with late action. If he wants to start, he'll need to find a more reliable breaking ball than his short slider, but to this point he has missed bats in bunches in the low minors. The command is still coming along, as is to be expected with a 20 year old pitcher, and will be another key in his development. If the two come together with his present stuff, he could be a mid rotation starter, with a more median outcome being a fastball/changeup reliever. It's certainly a profile that would play well in that latter role but the Nationals like his arm strength, changeup, and delivery at a very young age. He probably won't be up until 2027 unless the Nationals immediately shift him to the bullpen, which I doubt would happen. Lastly, Eriq Swan was a fourth round pick out of Middle Tennessee State in 2023, but injuries limited him to just 28.1 innings in 2024. Healthy in 2025, he has pitched the entire season at High A Great Lakes where he was recently joined by Liñan, running nice strikeout rates but walking too many hitters. He's a fireballer, holding mid 90's velocity deep into his starts and touching as high as 101 in short stints. The Dodgers have really helped him bring along a nice slider as well, coming in with power and sweep to keep hitters off balance. There's a changeup too for a change of pace off his power fastball/slider combo. While he doesn't throw with much effort, he has really struggled with command and was running an ugly 15.4% walk rate at the time of the trade, leading to serious relief questions. Barring some magic from Washington's pitching development, he's likely a reliever in the majors where he can sit close to 100 with his fastball and pull the string on the slider. He might move quicker in that role and look the part of a Josh Staumont.

Saturday, September 7, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Chicago Cubs

Full list of draftees

The Cubs followed one primary theme here, and that was chasing power. Their first three picks all have the potential for plus or better power, as do many of their later picks. That's a bit of a break from recent years, where they have focused heavily on pitching, but looking back to their World Series team nearly a decade ago, it was built on drafting hitters like Kris Bryant and Javier Baez, among others. Beyond that, they interestingly went on a Southern California mid-major binge, grabbing four in a six pick stretch from the University of San Diego, UC Santa Barbara (x2), and UC San Diego. 
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-14: 3B Cam Smith, Florida State {video}
Slot value: $5.07 million. Signing bonus: $5.07 million.
My rank: #13. MLB Pipeline: #14. Baseball America: #16.
The Cubs started things off with a bang, pulling in one of the top hitting prospects in all of amateur baseball in Cam Smith. Smith was a well-known prep in South Florida and had day two draft interest in 2022, but he made it to campus at Florida State and immediately jumped into the starting lineup as a freshman. While his freshman numbers were more good than great, he significantly elevated his profile by hitting .341/.396/.557 with six home runs in 49 games in the Cape Cod League that summer. Scouts were interested to see if he could apply that progress back to the ACC, and boy did he ever with a massive sophomore season that led to a first round draft selection. Smith has a true big league body at a listed 6'3", 225 pounds, and he looks every bit of it. He uses that natural strength to get extended and drive the ball to all parts of the park, notably applying an opposite field approach that helps him wear out the right center field gap. That approach almost conceals his power a bit, which is impressive considering he still hit sixteen home runs. Smith's raw exit velocities are among the best in the class, giving him plus-plus power when he turns on the ball. Unlike most power bats, he makes plenty of contact as well, and he was the only college hitter on the Baseball America 500 (out of 145) to run a 90th percentile exit velocity above 111 MPH while also running a contact rate above 81%. Smith can do damage against all pitch types, and he's really cleaned up his approach since looking overwhelmed as a freshman last year – his strikeout rate dropped from 28.7% to 14.9% while his walk rate jumped from 9.1% to 13.7%. It will be interesting to see if the Cubs let him continue to develop as a doubles machine smacking balls to the back side or if they look to get him to turn on the ball more often to unlock potential 30+ home run power. Smith also moves well at third base despite his size and fringy speed, with a plus arm and natural feel for the position making a potential average or better defender at the hot corner. That adds to the profile further and he has a shot to become one of the better third basemen in all of baseball. He's off to a hot start and has already been promoted, slashing .326/.418/.641 with seven home runs and a 21/14 strikeout to walk ratio through 26 games at Low A Myrtle Beach and High A South Bend.

2-54: 3B Cole Mathis, College of Charleston {video}
Slot value: $1.68 million. Signing bonus: $1.68 million.
My rank: #70. MLB Pipeline: #84. Baseball America: #61.
Cole Mathis is a really fun one with excellent metrics under the hood. He's actually a decorated pitcher who had some pro interest for his arm, which helped him put up a 3.60 ERA in 100 innings at the College of Charleston from 2022-2023. A big sophomore season at the plate but his bat on the map, then he tore through the Cape Cod League by slashing .326/.391/.660 with eleven home runs in 37 games (while running a 23/5 strikeout to walk ratio as a pitcher). Entering 2024 a late day two prospect, he started dreadfully slowly and was hitting just .184 with one home run through his first 21 games. Then a switch flipped and he hit .427/.541/.831 with thirteen home runs in his final 31 games the rest of the way, prompting the Cubs to hit the button perhaps a bit earlier than some expected. As you might expect, it's big raw power. Mathis is a built rock solid at a listed 6'1", 210 pounds, with plenty of strength to produce plus raw power that he had no problem tapping with wood bats against elite competition on the Cape. Meanwhile, the hit tool might be even better than the power, as the West Georgia native is exceptionally patient at the plate and rarely ever expands the zone. He makes plenty of contact within it, too, helping him keep strikeouts to a minimum and ensuring he's always on base – his career OBP at the College of Charleston stands at a gaudy .451. If there's one qualm about his offensive game, it's that he's more strong than athletic, so he could be tested once pro pitchers start to speed up his bat a bit more, but he did hit .326 on the Cape. If it clicks, Mathis has a chance for 25-30 home runs per year with high on-base percentages, which would put him right in the middle of the Cubs lineup long term. The Cubs drafted him as a third baseman, but he's most likely a first baseman long term with heavy feet and stiffer actions, though he does have a plus arm. That arm helped him run his fastball up to 96 as a reliever and he made ten starts for the Cougars in 2023, and he could fall back on pitching if hitting doesn't work out. The fastball can get a bit straight, while his hammer curveball gives him a quality offspeed offering and he pounds the strike zone with average command. Mathis is young for the class, having still been 20 on draft day.

3-90: SS Ronny Cruz, Miami Christian HS [FL] {video}
Slot value: $826,000. Signing bonus: $620,000 ($206,000 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #386.
Continuing the power theme, the Cubs picked up one of the better power bats remaining the prep class here in the third round and did so giving him fourth round money to sign away from a Miami commitment. Ronny Cruz is very projectable with a long, lean 6'2" frame, and this spring he has done a much better job of leveraging that frame to blast balls long distances. He gets the bat long through the zone with great extension, and he looked at his best during the MLB Draft Combine in June. Meanwhile, Cruz is raw as a hitter. He's susceptible to selling out for power, causing him to swing through hittable pitches, but that's getting better. The Cubs are buying into the power and believe the positive trajectory he's shown lately will help him hit enough to tap that power in pro ball. Meanwhile, he was drafted as a shortstop but may ultimately grow off the position. Second or third base could be his future, but so long as he makes reasonable strides in his glovework, he should be solid at either. Finding that kind of power that can stick on the dirt is not easy, and the Dominican-born Cruz is very young for the class having turned 18 more than a month after the draft. That gives him further time to fill out his frame and clean up his actions on both sides of the ball. It's a real sleeper for Chicago here.

4-120: SS Ty Southisene, Basic HS [NV] {video}
Slot value: $600,800. Signing bonus: $1 million ($399,200 above slot value).
My rank: #130. MLB Pipeline: #111. Baseball America: #191.
Ty Southisene breaks the power hitter pattern here, but he's a big time get that signed for roughly the slot value of the #78 pick rather than attend Tennessee. It's a really, really complete profile, with only one drawback – size. I've seen Southisene variously listed between 5'7" and 5'9", but no matter how you slice it, he's smaller than most of his competition. He uses a quick right handed swing to shoot line drives around the park with authority, and his quick hands and twitchy strength make the ball jump off his bat with more juice than you'd expect. There's a bit of a barrel tip in his load, but those quick hands help negate that as well. Additionally, he's an above average runner with excellent body control that gives him an outside shot to play shortstop, though his arm strength may push him to second base. Southisene's quickness and athleticism give him a chance to be at least above average if not plus at second. All together, we're talking about a potential high average type that can knock 10-15 home runs per season while playing strong defense on the dirt, really nice upside to find for third round money. If he were a few inches taller, we could be talking about a top fifty pick, and the Las Vegas native is out to prove that size does not matter.

5-153: C Ariel Armas, San Diego {video}
Slot value: $435,600. Signing bonus: $375,000 ($60,600 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
The Cubs have struggled to develop catching since Willson Contreras came up, with Miguel Amaya representing the only semi-success the organization has had behind the plate. They'll try again with Ariel Armas, though his ceiling is limited and he may project better as a backup catcher. Armas played three years at San Diego, alma mater of Kris Bryant, where he didn't hit much over his first two seasons but broke out for a nice offensive season in 2024. He still won't blow you away with his bat, but it now projects to be enough for a catcher. There's average pop in the bat even if he doesn't tap it so much in games, at least enough to keep pitchers honest. He's also a smart hitter in the box with a low chase rate that walked (11.2%) nearly as much as he struck out (13.7%). It's a fairly well-rounded offensive profile that won't be overwhelmed by pro pitching in any way. The carrying tool here, though, is his defense. He was the WCC Defensive Player of the Year in 2024, showing polished defense behind the plate that will help him not only remain at catcher long term but provide significant value there. That takes about as much pressure off his bat as you can hope for, so he'll only have to hit a little to ascend through the ranks. Just how much impact he can find in his right handed swing will determine his ultimate ceiling, but it's never a bad thing to have a glove like this in your system. Aggressively assigned to High A South Bend to start things out, he's hitting .204/.316/.286 with a 10/7 strikeout to walk ratio through thirteen games.

7-212: OF Ivan Brethowr, UC Santa Barbara {video}
Slot value: $263,300. Signing bonus: $245,000 ($18,300 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #194. Baseball America: #472.
After taking a couple rounds off, the Cubs went back to the power well in a big way. Ivan Brethowr began his career at Arizona State, but didn't play much as a freshman and transferred to UC Santa Barbara, where he has been one of the Gauchos' best hitters. Brethowr immediately stands out on the field at a listed 6'6", 250 pounds, making him the biggest player in a Cubs' draft class full of large humans. Unsurprisingly, he has plus power to the pull side and loves to turn on the ball for impressive home runs. He's plenty strong enough to put the ball out the other way, too, but at this point he doesn't have the barrel feel to consistently tap that opposite field power and most of his batted balls the opposite way are mishits. The pull-heavy approach combined with the longer levers that lead to lower barrel accuracy give him a below average hit tool, so the Cubs will have to revamp his approach a bit in pro ball to tap his power more consistently. The upside, though, is tremendous if they can get it right. On the defensive side of the ball, the Kansas City-area native has average speed and a strong arm to make right field a viable option, though he may slow down as he ages. He's earned comps to fellow California mid-major product Aaron Judge, and while that would of course that outcome would require a lot to go right (and he's less disciplined as a hitter at this stage), they do have similar profiles with their size, power, and handedness. It's been a steep transition to pro ball so far, where he is slashing .165/.267/.253 with two home runs and a 26/7 strikeout to walk ratio through 22 games at Low A Myrtle Beach.

11-332: OF Eli Lovich, Blue Valley West HS [KS] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $650,000 ($500,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #474.
With their first pick of day three, the Cubs spent an extra half million against their bonus pool to sign Eli Lovich away from an Arkansas commitment, good for fourth round money. Lovich is a pure projection play, one who the Cubs believe would have exploded at Arkansas and come out the other end a much higher pick. As such, they're investing much more money than you might expect given his rankings on various draft boards. He's long and lean at 6'4", 185 pounds, with room to add 40-50 pounds of strength. For now, he's mostly a line drive hitter who uses the whole field effectively with a level, loose swing that will be conducive to adding power. That power is fringy right now, but he's almost certain to get much, much stronger in Chicago and he could get to above average power easily. A decent runner, he likely fits as a right fielder long term but the Cubs would love it if he could make it work in center field. Lovich has a strong arm and was actually ranked on Baseball America's board as a pitcher, not a hitter, so giving up the mound could also help the Kansas City-area native bring it together. He has a long way to go, but the upside here is tremendous and he really resembles exactly the kind of hitter that goes to school and comes back a first or second rounder three years later. The Cubs see that and will see him through to that ceiling in their system.

12-362: RHP Daniel Avitia, Grand Canyon {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: #195. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #250.
I thought top-five round projections for Daniel Avitia were a little rich earlier this spring, but now that the Cubs managed to get their hands on him here in the twelfth round, he becomes a very interesting prospect for $150,000. Avitia was a central piece of the Grand Canyon rotation as a freshman and as a sophomore, but missed time with injuries in 2024 and didn't take the step forward scouts were looking for. The Cubs like power arms, but Avitia is more of a soft tosser. The fastball hovers around 90, topping out around 94 and coming in with running and sinking action. His slider and changeup are both solid average pitches, nothing special but they get the job done. Where Avitia shines is command and execution. He can spot all three pitches where he needs them, helping them play up and keeping him ahead in counts. The Phoenix native gets his whiffs by executing those pitches where he needs them rather than forcing them to chase bad pitches out of the zone, so it remains to be seen how well that will play against pro pitchers who can pick him up a little better. Avitia also comes from a low three quarters slot that creates an ultra low release point, which will allow the Cubs to get creative with his pitch usage as he keeps hitters off balance. Clocking in at 6'4", he has some projection remaining and if he can tack 2-3 MPH on his fastball while maintaining his plus command, he suddenly becomes a legitimate MLB starting pitching candidate. His older brother David is actually already in the Cubs' system, where he's a light hitting catcher currently in High A.

13-392: RHP Evan Aschenbeck, Texas A&M {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Here the Cubs bring in one of the top relievers in the country, and in fact Evan Aschenbeck was named Stopper of the Year this past spring. He spent two years at Blinn JC in Texas, then spent the last two at Texas A&M where he put up that massive senior season in 2024. While he's a very different pitcher, the profile is fairly similar to Daniel Avitia on the surface. His fastball hovers around 90, topping out around 93 although his is a riding fastball from a moderately high slot while Avitia's is a running fastball from a very low slot. Also like Avitia, Aschenbeck has an average slider and changeup to round out his arsenal. He shows plus command and execution, again like Avitia, with the ability to mix pitches effectively and throw them all with conviction in any count to any spot. He's a very high baseball IQ type who thrived in high pressure situations in the SEC. Unlike Avitia, who is two years his junior, he lacks projection and is unlikely to throw much harder. That caps the 23 year old's ceiling a little bit, and he's unlikely to be much more than a middle reliever at best for the Cubs. That said, he could move through the minors very quickly with his command and durability.

20-602: RHP Brayden Risedorph, Indiana {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
It took until the final round, but the Cubs finally picked up a Midwesterner to come pitch in their system. Brayden Risedorph is from the small town of Kendallville, Indiana, which sits about 25 miles north of Fort Wayne near the northeastern corner of the Hoosier State. He spent two years at Indiana, where he served as a swingman but struggled to an 8.31 ERA in 2024. Unsurprisingly, the Cubs are targeting the stuff here, not the performance. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and can touch 99 in short stints, though it plays a bit straight out of his hand with some running action so it doesn't miss many bats. There's a solid sweeper with the chance to be above average, while his splitter is inconsistent but shows nasty, late drop at its best. Risedorph shows fringy command that may limit him to the bullpen long term, but the arm strength, physicality, and stuff all point to more ceiling than you'd expect. The Cubs will have to get creative with his pitch mix and perhaps tweak the fastball to keep hitters off it if he wants to come anywhere close to that ceiling, but as a draft-eligible sophomore he was still 20 on draft day and has a shot to put things together.