1-1: 1B Spencer Torkelson, Arizona State
2-38: C Dillon Dingler, Ohio State
CBB-62: OF Daniel Cabrera, Louisiana State
3-73: SS Trei Cruz, Rice
4-102: 3B Gage Workman, Arizona State
5-132: 3B Colt Keith, Biloxi HS (MS)
I love this class for the Tigers, and not just because of Spencer Torkelson. With a very pitching-heavy farm system led by guys like Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, and Matt Manning, the Tigers picked up six bats (five college) to help balance it out, and they were aggressive about it. In spending more than $600,000 above their bonus pool, they were able to max out the amount of talent they could pull in without losing future draft picks, which to me is absolutely the right move considering the draft is by far the most cost-effective way to acquire talent. The Orioles and Mariners underspent their bonus pools and came away with missed opportunities, while the Tigers, like the Blue Jays, put themselves in a really good position. Of course I love Torkelson's bat, but the class goes beyond that. Dillon Dingler in the second round was a steal, as was Daniel Cabrera in the second competitive balance round, and I love that the Tigers were willing to go over slot to get each of their last four picks. They finished it off with Colt Keith, who to me is the bargain of the draft, not just the bargain of the class.
Full index of team reviews here.
1-1: 1B Spencer Torkelson, Arizona State (my rank: 1)
Spencer Torkelson is the first college first baseman ever to go first overall, and with good reason. Typically, teams try to get up the middle players in this spot to minimize risk, but the Sonoma County, California native is the best amateur hitter on the planet and the Tigers did the right thing by bringing him on. He has put up absolutely unreal numbers during his time at Arizona State, slashing .337/.463/.729 with 54 home runs and a 104/110 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games, earning the Barry Bonds treatment with 31 walks in just 17 games in 2020. He also tore up the elite Cape Cod League in 2018 (.343/.474/.733, 10 HR) when he was just 18 years old, driving home the point. With Torkelson, we're talking true plus-plus raw and game power that plays against high level pitching, against velocity, quality breaking balls, and with wood bats. He can easily drive the ball out to any field with a combination of huge natural strength and a very quick bat that deploys that strength very efficiently. If you took away all of his power, you could still confidently call Tork a plus contact hitter because of how easily he finds the barrel. Throw in that he's very young for a college junior and doesn't turn 21 until August, and you have the complete package as a hitter. It's an MVP caliber bat that projects similarly to Pete Alonso as a realistic median projection, and the ceiling is as high as you'd like it to be. Because he was a part of the best infield in college baseball at Arizona State, the Sun Devils never really considered playing him anywhere but first base, but he's naturally athletic and the Tigers have been trying him out at third base here and there in summer camp. Does he stick there? Maybe with some work, but if I'm the Tigers, unless I truly believe in his defense at the hot corner, I'm not messing with it and I'm just letting him hit his way to the big leagues. Even at first base, he should provide value as an above average defender there. His roughly $8.42 million signing bonus was $1,100 above slot value and broke Adley Rutschman's record by more than $300,000. Pre-draft profile here.
2-38: C Dillon Dingler, Ohio State (my rank: 32)
Many Michigan fans are probably having a hard time coming to terms with having to root for Ohio State's catcher, but it's okay, the Cleveland Indians signed Michigan catcher Joe Donovan in the undrafted free agent market so it's a fair swap. And Dingler is such a great talent that Michigan fans will be able to get over it sooner or later. He grew up in North Canton, Ohio, and was more solid than spectacular over his first two seasons with the Buckeyes, slashing .267/.362/.396 with seven home runs in 102 games. However, evaluators always had a feeling there was more in the tank and it all came out at once in his last two games in Ohio State red, blasting four home runs in ten at bats against North Florida. Suddenly, he went from a safe backup catcher profile to a legitimate starting catching prospect. He has plenty of natural raw power in his 6'3" frame that he's now learning how to tap, and that's on top of a very professional approach at the plate that enables him to control the strike zone very well. Dingler has routinely been noted for his athleticism behind the plate, with the ability to quickly pounce on baseballs in the dirt and easily move side to side to block wild pitches. With a quick transfer and a strong arm, he projects to not only stay behind the plate but be above average in that regard. Sure, Dingler's actual track record of hitting at a high level is short, but he's hit at a satisfactory level for a long time and the Tigers believe they're catching him right on the upswing. Either way, the bar for catcher offense is very low, so even if he regresses more to his pre-2020 form, he still has a very good shot at playing every day. That's a really nice floor when you consider the upside of a 20-25 home run bat (perhaps more) with good on-base percentages, which would place him in the top couple of catchers in the league. His $1.95 million signing bonus was right at slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
CBB-62: OF Daniel Cabrera, Louisiana State (my rank: 37)
Given the existence of the LSU, Auburn, Missouri, Clemson, Mempis, and Princeton Tigers, just to name a few, odds were that somebody would go Tigers to Tigers in this draft. That guy was LSU's Daniel Cabrera, and the Detroit Tigers couldn't be happier to get him this late in the draft. Cabrera was a well-known draft prospect coming out of the Baton Rouge high school ranks in 2017, but his high bonus demands meant that he stayed home to play at LSU, coming out the other end more or less a similar prospect. Over three years with the Tigers, he slashed .305/.392/.518 with 22 home runs and a 102/72 strikeout to walk ratio in 140 games, including a hot .345/.466/.500 start to the 2020 season. I mentioned that Dingler has a professional approach at the plate, but Cabrera's approach is his calling card. He makes very consistent contact with a clean left handed swing, managing the strike zone very well against top competition. While there isn't a ton of power in his 6'1" frame, he uses what he has well and drives the ball around the field very consistently, running into his share of home runs here and there. On the other side of the ball, he's an ordinary defender who fits in left field. Cabrera isn't the flashiest prospect, but he's a high probability big leaguer with a very good chance to end up a full time starter, projecting for perhaps 15-20 home runs a year and high on-base percentages. He signed for $1.21 million, about $110,000 above slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
3-73: SS Trei Cruz, Rice (my rank: 141)
Out of the Tigers' six picks, I think this was the one that left most evaluators, myself included, scratching their heads a little bit. I don't hate it or anything, but I'm not going to jump and immediately endorse it like I am with their other five picks. Trei Cruz is hoping to join his grandfather Jose Cruz (1970-1988) and father Jose Cruz Jr. (1997-2008), who combined to play 3,741 major league games and hit 369 home runs in the majors. Trei is old for his class and was eligible as a sophomore last year, but wanted to return to Rice for his junior season and it looks like that paid off for him. Over three years, he hit .296/.406/.484 with 16 home runs and a 127/93 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games for the Owls. Proponents look at Cruz and see a wide array of skills that will serve him well in pro ball, while detractors might see that same skill set as a "jack of all trades, master of none" profile that could cause him to wind up as a tweener. He has a lot of wiry strength in his 6'2" frame that produces solid raw power, while his strong plate discipline enables him to put up pretty consistent numbers wherever he goes. A switch hitter, the swings are a little bit funky from both sides of the plate, and while he usually gets his hands in a good hitting position by the time he starts his swing, he can get caught in between and that causes some minor swing and miss. It's a similar story on the other side of the ball. He shows good feel for playing the infield, but his range is a little stretched at shortstop and he might be forced to second or third base down the road. Together, it's a lot of "solid, but" in his overall profile: solid raw power, solid plate discipline but some minor mechanical hitches, solid defense but limited range. The Tigers clearly see this as an opportunity, and they think if he can take a step forward in just one or two areas, they'll have themselves a legitimate major leaguer. I do think something will have to tangibly improve though if he wants to be more than a decent utility infielder. Cruz signed for $900,000, which was $42,600 above slot value.
4-102: 3B Gage Workman, Arizona State (my rank: 59)
I mentioned that Spencer Torkelson was part of the best infield in college baseball and had no need to try anywhere else. Gage Workman was a big reason why Torkelson was confined to first base, with an above average glove at third base. Workman graduated from high school in the Phoenix area a year early with plans for going on his Mormon mission, but I guess that never materialized because he played three years at Arizona State and is now a Detroit Tiger. He had a big sophomore season with a .330/.413/.528 slash line, eight home runs, and a 68/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games, and a solid run through the Cape Cod League set him up as a potential top 50 pick heading into 2020. However, he was a bit more up and down with a .250/.316/.471 line, three home runs, and a 21/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games in 2020, and that gave his stock a bit of a market correction down to more of the second/third round range. Workman shows nice raw power from both sides of the plate, albeit a little more from the left side. At 6'4", he projects to add more as he grows into his frame, and he's young enough to get smoother with that right handed swing as well. He has a very aggressive approach at the plate that limits his offensive production at times, though he's very athletic and still makes a lot of hard contact anyways. His glove is above average and makes him a very valuable defender at third base, one who can easily handle additional ground in the shift, and he might even be able to slide to shortstop if needed in a pinch. It's a little more projection than you typically want to do with a college bat, but he won't turn 21 until October and is therefore the age of a college sophomore, and his combination of strength and athleticism gives him a lot of upside. At best, perhaps 25-30 home runs a year with decent on-base percentages, and that's why the Tigers paid $1 million for him, about $428,600 above slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
5-132: 3B Colt Keith, Biloxi HS, MS (my rank: 64)
The Tigers finished out their draft class with a player who, in my opinion, is one of the biggest steals in the draft. Colt Keith grew up in Arizona but moved to Mississippi's Gulf Coast before his junior season of high school. He was one of the top two-way players in the country, but it looks like the Tigers are drafting him as a hitter only, and in my opinion that is the right move. Keith is a very well rounded hitter who makes very consistent contact from the left side, with a great track record of hitting against high level competition. Not just a contact hitter, he has a lot of wiry strength in his 6'3" frame and has begun to tap more power, looking average in that regard now but easily projecting for above average power down the line. His swing is pretty short and he doesn't get a ton of extension, but his hands are very quick and generate a lot of force without much wasted movement. Helping him get his arms extended a bit more consistently could help him tap even more power, and the combination of mechanical tweaks and added strength could land him with plus power down the line. That's definitely an optimistic projection and probably more of his ceiling than most likely outcome, but it's certainly a possibility and he does have that above average hit tool to go with it. He's played shortstop in high school and handled it adequately, though the Tigers see him moving over to third base and working to be above average there, much like fourth rounder Gage Workman. As a pitcher who can hit 93 on the gun, his arm is certainly an asset. He's a little bit old for the class with an August birthday, though giving up pitching should help him make up for some of that time. Keith was committed to Arizona State (like Torkelson and Workman) and I was very surprised to hear he signed for just $500,000, which was $73,400 above slot value. Huge bargain. Pre-draft profile here.
Undrafted: 1B Trevin Esquerra, Loyola Marymount (unranked)
Trevin Esquerra is a first baseman/outfielder out of Loyola Marymount, and he's an interesting athlete as both a switch hitter and a switch thrower, though he just sticks to throwing left handed these days. He broke out for the Lions as a junior last year and kept hitting this year as a senior, combining for a .314/.388/.595 slash line, 19 home runs, and an 86/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 games over the last two seasons. He generates a lot of leverage with his 6'1" frame that plays into above average power in games, though his swing is a little smoother from the left side and can get long on the right side. There is also a lot of swing and miss in his game, hampered by an aggressive approach for most of his college career. He was more patient in 2020 and drew 14 walks in 16 games, but the swing and miss was still there as he struck out 20 times. Since he won't provide much defensive value, the San Diego native probably projects as a part time player who can come up with some power off the bench.
Undrafted: OF Austin Langworthy, Florida (unranked)
College baseball fans will recognize this name immediately. Austin Langworthy was never a star, but he appeared in 198 games for the Florida Gators over four years and has already teamed with dozens of pros like Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Jonathan India, and Alex Faedo. He was at his best from 2018-2019, when he hit .286/.384/.449 with 14 home runs and an 86/70 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games, though he was off to a slower .246/.316/.348 start in 2020. Langworthy has a quick left handed swing that sprays line drives from gap to gap, though at 5'11", there isn't a ton of home run power. He's not the toolsiest player and probably makes for a better college profile than pro profile, but he has a chance to work his way up as a fourth or fifth outfielder with a wide array of skills.
Showing posts with label Daniel Cabrera. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Daniel Cabrera. Show all posts
Tuesday, July 21, 2020
Thursday, April 16, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Daniel Cabrera
OF Daniel Cabrera, Louisiana State
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 9/5/1998. B/T: L/L
2020 Stats: 2 HR, .345/.466/.500, 6 SB, 12/14 K/BB in 17 games
There are players with more exciting tool sets than Daniel Cabrera, but sometimes the straightforward guys get it done. Cabrera was a potential day one prospect coming out of Parkview Baptist High School in Baton Rouge in 2017, but he took his advanced bat across town to LSU and has done nothing but hit there. He made an immediate impact by hitting .315/.405/.525 with eight home runs as a freshman, then hit .284/.359/.516 with 12 home runs as he battled wrist problems as a sophomore. He was taking things to another level when the season shut down in 2020, hitting .345/.466/.500 to bring his career slash line to .305/.392/.518 with 22 home runs in 140 games. Overall, those aren't the flashiest numbers, but you'd be hard pressed to find a hole in his game.
Cabrera is as balanced a hitter as you'll find in this college class outside of that top tier. He employs an advanced approach at the plate, and he uses an extremely simple but powerful swing to produce average power to go along with his high on-base percentages. That swing has been his calling card all along, as it has no holes and very efficiently enables him to hit pitches in all quadrants of the zone. His approach got a bit out of wack during his sophomore year, but there's no reason to think he can't lock down the strike zone against professional pitching and he walked more than he struck out during his junior year. Defensively, he's decent but probably fits best in left field, where he'll get the job done but won't necessarily be an asset.
The biggest knock on Cabrera is his lack of upside. There's no loud tools here, just competent baseball ability. That gives him a great chance to be at least a fourth or fifth outfielder, but it also means even a best case scenario projects him with 15-25 home runs per season and high on-base percentages. That upside is considerably less remarkable than many other first round college bats, especially considering he won't add much on defense. To me, an optimist that he'll keep hitting, he seems like a guy who will fall between those two projections and end up a 15 homer bat with decent on-base percentages. That's a hitter who can start on some teams and might be a platoon hitter on others, but either way it's value. That might not fit in the first round, but it makes sense as a comp pick or as an early second rounder for a team that wants to be absolutely sure they recuperate some value out of this shorter draft.
Cape Cod League action
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 9/5/1998. B/T: L/L
2020 Stats: 2 HR, .345/.466/.500, 6 SB, 12/14 K/BB in 17 games
There are players with more exciting tool sets than Daniel Cabrera, but sometimes the straightforward guys get it done. Cabrera was a potential day one prospect coming out of Parkview Baptist High School in Baton Rouge in 2017, but he took his advanced bat across town to LSU and has done nothing but hit there. He made an immediate impact by hitting .315/.405/.525 with eight home runs as a freshman, then hit .284/.359/.516 with 12 home runs as he battled wrist problems as a sophomore. He was taking things to another level when the season shut down in 2020, hitting .345/.466/.500 to bring his career slash line to .305/.392/.518 with 22 home runs in 140 games. Overall, those aren't the flashiest numbers, but you'd be hard pressed to find a hole in his game.
Cabrera is as balanced a hitter as you'll find in this college class outside of that top tier. He employs an advanced approach at the plate, and he uses an extremely simple but powerful swing to produce average power to go along with his high on-base percentages. That swing has been his calling card all along, as it has no holes and very efficiently enables him to hit pitches in all quadrants of the zone. His approach got a bit out of wack during his sophomore year, but there's no reason to think he can't lock down the strike zone against professional pitching and he walked more than he struck out during his junior year. Defensively, he's decent but probably fits best in left field, where he'll get the job done but won't necessarily be an asset.
The biggest knock on Cabrera is his lack of upside. There's no loud tools here, just competent baseball ability. That gives him a great chance to be at least a fourth or fifth outfielder, but it also means even a best case scenario projects him with 15-25 home runs per season and high on-base percentages. That upside is considerably less remarkable than many other first round college bats, especially considering he won't add much on defense. To me, an optimist that he'll keep hitting, he seems like a guy who will fall between those two projections and end up a 15 homer bat with decent on-base percentages. That's a hitter who can start on some teams and might be a platoon hitter on others, but either way it's value. That might not fit in the first round, but it makes sense as a comp pick or as an early second rounder for a team that wants to be absolutely sure they recuperate some value out of this shorter draft.
Cape Cod League action
Thursday, January 11, 2018
Top 10 Prospects to Reach NCAA - 2018
The MLB draft is different from the NBA and NFL drafts in that high schoolers are eligible to be drafted and often sign, greatly reducing the amount of talent in college baseball. If Major League Baseball functioned the same way as other sports, many of today's top prospects, including the Rockies' Brendan Rodgers (Florida State), the Blue Jays' Bo Bichette (Arizona State), the Indians' Triston McKenzie (Vanderbilt), the Astros' Kyle Tucker (Florida) and Forrest Whitley (Florida State), and the Phillies Mickey Moniak (UCLA) would be in college right now, making their mark on their programs and perhaps the College World Series. However, some of the top talent can sneak through, as we see with some of the top 2015 draft prospects, Florida star Brady Singer and TCU star Luken Baker. In this slow offseason, let's take a look at the top 2017 high school talent to reach the NCAA, according to my pre-draft rankings from June. The rankings denote where I ranked them among all draft eligible players, not just high schoolers.
1. OF Garrett Mitchell (UCLA). 2017 rank: #38
I was much higher on Mitchell than most, and he chose to attend UCLA rather than accept a 14th round draft selection by the Oakland A's. Mitchell is a bit raw as a prospect, but he's an excellent athlete that reminds me of a left handed Hunter Pence. His swing is long and flat and needs work, but the bat is in the zone for a very long time, and looks a lot like Pence's swing. One reason his draft stock fell a bit was due to his diabetes, but if he can show he can manage it with the Bruins, he could emerge a first rounder. Pence didn't even end up at a Division I school right away, beginning his career at Texarkana College, but he mashed for two seasons at UT-Arlington (16 HR, .368/.421/.585) before teams took him seriously enough to draft him. Mitchell could have a similar career after he transitions to Pac-12 pitching.
2. RHP Tanner Burns (Auburn). 2017 rank: #43
Auburn was able to pry top draft prospect Davis Daniel away from the Cubs in 2016, and they got an even more highly regarded draft prospect in Tanner Burns. A pitcher like Daniel, Burns could have gone in the second round, but he fell to the 39th and chose the Auburn Tigers over the Yankees. Daniel didn't get going right away (5.89 ERA, 1.44 WHIP as a freshman in 2017), but Burns comes in much more polished and could make an impact quickly for the Tigers. While his stuff seemed borderline for MLB teams looking to draft him, it should translate right away to facing SEC hitters, with a low to mid 90's fastball, an inconsistent but at times great curveball, and a changeup that is coming along. He's not a control artist but can command it reasonably well, and in addition to working with Daniel, he'll join arguably the top pitcher in college baseball, Casey Mize, in what looks to be an exceptionally talented Auburn rotation featuring three big league prospects.
3. LHP Jake Eder (Vanderbilt). 2017 rank: #59
Vanderbilt always loses quite a few recruits to the MLB draft, but they usually land at least one top draft prospect, including Alonzo Jones and the late Donny Everett from the 2015 high school class. Eder is the biggest prospect to make it to campus since Everett, standing 6'4" and coming in with a low 90's fastball, some secondaries to work with, and very little in the command/mechanics department. Unlike Burns, he won't have an immediate impact on a Vandy rotation that already includes Patrick Raby (10-4, 2.73 ERA), Chandler Day (7-2, 3.78 ERA), and Drake Fellows (3-3, 3.30 ERA), but he may be Vanderbilt's 2020 ace if they can clean up his mechanics, which I believe are the root of the problem for his lack of command and consistent secondary stuff. At a school that has recently produced superstar pitching prospects Kyle Wright, Jordan Sheffield, Carson Fulmer, and Walker Buehler, there may be no better place for him to work on everything.
4. OF Daniel Cabrera (Louisiana State). 2017 rank: #73
Unlike Eder, Daniel Cabrera will be ready to contribute on day one in Baton Rouge. LSU seems to always have stars in its outfield, most recently Greg Deichmann and Jake Fraley, and Cabrera can join well regarded 2018 draft prospects Zach Watson and Antoine Duplantis in tracking down fly balls at Alex Box Stadium. Cabrera earned his draft stock more from having an advanced, polished bat than from having a high ceiling, which means he's ready to face SEC pitching now and shouldn't have too much trouble transitioning. He doesn't hit for a ton of power, but he knows himself as a hitter and can spray line drives all over the field. By his sophomore year, he could be hitting near the top of the LSU lineup and being the next in a line of great Tigers outfielders.
5. LHP Asa Lacy (Texas A&M). 2017 rank: #78
Our fourth straight SEC recruit lands in College Station, where he could be the next great Aggie arm. In the upper 80's, his fastball isn't fast enough to blow by SEC hitters yet, but he's very projectable and already has an advanced changeup and a good curveball. He seems like the kind of guy that could put it together and surprise everyone, turning into not just a star but a superstar at the NCAA level. He has a ways to go, but I get a good feeling with him.
6. RHP Bryce Bonnin (Arkansas). 2017 rank. #82
The Arkansas Razorbacks have to be excited about their pitching staff in 2018, because not only did highly regarded 2017 draft prospect Blaine Knight (8-4, 3.28 ERA) turn down the Rangers as a draft-eligible sophomore, but high schooler Bryce Bonnin is skipping out on the Cubs and joining Knight in Fayetteville. Our fifth straight SEC recruit on this list has a deadly fastball/slider combination, but unlike Burns and Lacy, I feel like he could use some time working out of the bullpen as a freshman. His loose arm works well with his stuff, but he does need to tighten his command and work on his changeup, where the bullpen could serve as the perfect practice ground. By his junior year, he could be one of the best arms in the SEC.
7. SS Greg Jones (UNC-Wilmington). 2017 rank: #84
Jones is a little different from the other hitters on this list in that a) he'll be draft eligible as a sophomore in 2019 and b) he's joining a mid-major school, rather than a power five like the players above him. UNC-Wilmington will have less time time to work with him if he decides to go pro after his sophomore season, but his transition will also be easier due to the lower level of play of mid-major schools. Jones is very raw as a player as he experienced a late growth spurt in high school, but he is toolsy as they come with blinding speed and more power potential than you would expect from a skinny 5'11" shortstop. Due to the mid-major nature of UNC-Wilmington, Jones will have a chance to contribute right away, though we should expect some growing pains from him. He'll probably strike out a ton early, but the Seahawks are known for their offensive prowess and he'll be right in the middle.
8. RHP Chris McMahon (Miami). 2017 rank: #92
McMahon's arrival at Miami will be similar to Burns' at Auburn in that he should be ready to contribute early on. He throws low 90's and can command it fairly well, and his curveball and changeup are ready for the ACC now. Miami struggled last year, but landing a big recruit like McMahon could help spark the team in 2018, especially as they return most of their roster.
9. RHP Kyle Hurt (Southern California). 2017 rank: #98
USC hasn't been great at landing their top draft-eligible recruits, but they did grab a solid pitcher in Kyle Hurt. Like UNCW's Greg Jones, he'll be eligible for the draft as a sophomore, and like Jones, he does have work to do. He works with three good pitches in a low 90's fastball, a hard curveball, and a nice changeup, but his curve and change do lack consistency. He looked really good over the summer of 2016, but hurt his knee in the winter and had some bumps in his recovery. Hurt is a little bit of a wild card, but if he overcomes his inconsistency issues, he could be a durable starter for the Trojans.
10. RHP C.J. Van Eyk (Florida State). 2017 rank: #107
Florida State landed the top high school prospect to forgo signing in the 2016 draft, Drew Mendoza, and this year they grabbed the number ten guy, C.J. Van Eyk (as well as would-be #11 Shane Drohan, who just missed this list). Mendoza had a very successful freshman year (10 HR, .270/.400/.534), and Van Eyk will look to follow in his footsteps by making an immediate impact. More talented than a few of the guys above him on this list, Van Eyk only ranks so low because at draft time he was a Tommy John candidate, but it looks like he has avoided the surgery. Van Eyk throws a fastball in the low 90's and has an excellent curveball, though his command does tend to deteriorate has the throws harder. FSU will have two big things to work on with him: helping him bring his command with him into the higher velocity bands and building him up so he can be durable enough to last a full college season. Once that happens, he could be the next Seminole ace. He joins a very talented FSU pitching staff that includes highly regarded 2018 draft prospects Tyler Holton (10-3, 2.34 ERA) and Cole Sands (6-4, 5.40 ERA, but is better than the numbers say) as well as the aforementioned Drohan.
Edit: 3a. SS Brady McConnell (Florida). 2017 rank: #58
I missed McConnell by mistake when originally compiling this list, but he slotted one spot ahead of Vanderbilt's Jake Eder and should have been number three. McConnell is a slick-fielding shortstop with a smooth, powerful swing for a skinny guy, contracting and unloading on pitches with his legs. Unfortunately, because his swing relies on a fair amount of pre-pitch movement, he was a bit inconsistent in the spring and fell from a first round candidate to more of a second round talent, causing him to pack up and head to Gainesville instead of signing with an MLB team. Being that Florida, the reigning national champion, is still perhaps the most talented team in the country, McConnell will join a very talented infield that includes well-regarded draft prospects Jonathan India and Deacon Liput, and his spot may be open with the departure of Dalton Guthrie. We've heard more about the simply ridiculous pitching staff that includes potential first overall pick Brady Singer, fellow potential first rounder Jackson Kowar, and superstar closer Michael Byrne, as well as top recruit Hunter Ruth (see "Others" below), but this Florida team is as well-rounded, talented, and dangerous as college teams come.
Others: #118 LHP Shane Drohan (Florida State), #119 RHP Gavin Williams (East Carolina), #120 RHP Hunter Ruth (Florida), #122 C Philip Clark (Vanderbilt), #127 RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina)
1. OF Garrett Mitchell (UCLA). 2017 rank: #38
I was much higher on Mitchell than most, and he chose to attend UCLA rather than accept a 14th round draft selection by the Oakland A's. Mitchell is a bit raw as a prospect, but he's an excellent athlete that reminds me of a left handed Hunter Pence. His swing is long and flat and needs work, but the bat is in the zone for a very long time, and looks a lot like Pence's swing. One reason his draft stock fell a bit was due to his diabetes, but if he can show he can manage it with the Bruins, he could emerge a first rounder. Pence didn't even end up at a Division I school right away, beginning his career at Texarkana College, but he mashed for two seasons at UT-Arlington (16 HR, .368/.421/.585) before teams took him seriously enough to draft him. Mitchell could have a similar career after he transitions to Pac-12 pitching.
2. RHP Tanner Burns (Auburn). 2017 rank: #43
Auburn was able to pry top draft prospect Davis Daniel away from the Cubs in 2016, and they got an even more highly regarded draft prospect in Tanner Burns. A pitcher like Daniel, Burns could have gone in the second round, but he fell to the 39th and chose the Auburn Tigers over the Yankees. Daniel didn't get going right away (5.89 ERA, 1.44 WHIP as a freshman in 2017), but Burns comes in much more polished and could make an impact quickly for the Tigers. While his stuff seemed borderline for MLB teams looking to draft him, it should translate right away to facing SEC hitters, with a low to mid 90's fastball, an inconsistent but at times great curveball, and a changeup that is coming along. He's not a control artist but can command it reasonably well, and in addition to working with Daniel, he'll join arguably the top pitcher in college baseball, Casey Mize, in what looks to be an exceptionally talented Auburn rotation featuring three big league prospects.
3. LHP Jake Eder (Vanderbilt). 2017 rank: #59
Vanderbilt always loses quite a few recruits to the MLB draft, but they usually land at least one top draft prospect, including Alonzo Jones and the late Donny Everett from the 2015 high school class. Eder is the biggest prospect to make it to campus since Everett, standing 6'4" and coming in with a low 90's fastball, some secondaries to work with, and very little in the command/mechanics department. Unlike Burns, he won't have an immediate impact on a Vandy rotation that already includes Patrick Raby (10-4, 2.73 ERA), Chandler Day (7-2, 3.78 ERA), and Drake Fellows (3-3, 3.30 ERA), but he may be Vanderbilt's 2020 ace if they can clean up his mechanics, which I believe are the root of the problem for his lack of command and consistent secondary stuff. At a school that has recently produced superstar pitching prospects Kyle Wright, Jordan Sheffield, Carson Fulmer, and Walker Buehler, there may be no better place for him to work on everything.
4. OF Daniel Cabrera (Louisiana State). 2017 rank: #73
Unlike Eder, Daniel Cabrera will be ready to contribute on day one in Baton Rouge. LSU seems to always have stars in its outfield, most recently Greg Deichmann and Jake Fraley, and Cabrera can join well regarded 2018 draft prospects Zach Watson and Antoine Duplantis in tracking down fly balls at Alex Box Stadium. Cabrera earned his draft stock more from having an advanced, polished bat than from having a high ceiling, which means he's ready to face SEC pitching now and shouldn't have too much trouble transitioning. He doesn't hit for a ton of power, but he knows himself as a hitter and can spray line drives all over the field. By his sophomore year, he could be hitting near the top of the LSU lineup and being the next in a line of great Tigers outfielders.
5. LHP Asa Lacy (Texas A&M). 2017 rank: #78
Our fourth straight SEC recruit lands in College Station, where he could be the next great Aggie arm. In the upper 80's, his fastball isn't fast enough to blow by SEC hitters yet, but he's very projectable and already has an advanced changeup and a good curveball. He seems like the kind of guy that could put it together and surprise everyone, turning into not just a star but a superstar at the NCAA level. He has a ways to go, but I get a good feeling with him.
6. RHP Bryce Bonnin (Arkansas). 2017 rank. #82
The Arkansas Razorbacks have to be excited about their pitching staff in 2018, because not only did highly regarded 2017 draft prospect Blaine Knight (8-4, 3.28 ERA) turn down the Rangers as a draft-eligible sophomore, but high schooler Bryce Bonnin is skipping out on the Cubs and joining Knight in Fayetteville. Our fifth straight SEC recruit on this list has a deadly fastball/slider combination, but unlike Burns and Lacy, I feel like he could use some time working out of the bullpen as a freshman. His loose arm works well with his stuff, but he does need to tighten his command and work on his changeup, where the bullpen could serve as the perfect practice ground. By his junior year, he could be one of the best arms in the SEC.
7. SS Greg Jones (UNC-Wilmington). 2017 rank: #84
Jones is a little different from the other hitters on this list in that a) he'll be draft eligible as a sophomore in 2019 and b) he's joining a mid-major school, rather than a power five like the players above him. UNC-Wilmington will have less time time to work with him if he decides to go pro after his sophomore season, but his transition will also be easier due to the lower level of play of mid-major schools. Jones is very raw as a player as he experienced a late growth spurt in high school, but he is toolsy as they come with blinding speed and more power potential than you would expect from a skinny 5'11" shortstop. Due to the mid-major nature of UNC-Wilmington, Jones will have a chance to contribute right away, though we should expect some growing pains from him. He'll probably strike out a ton early, but the Seahawks are known for their offensive prowess and he'll be right in the middle.
8. RHP Chris McMahon (Miami). 2017 rank: #92
McMahon's arrival at Miami will be similar to Burns' at Auburn in that he should be ready to contribute early on. He throws low 90's and can command it fairly well, and his curveball and changeup are ready for the ACC now. Miami struggled last year, but landing a big recruit like McMahon could help spark the team in 2018, especially as they return most of their roster.
9. RHP Kyle Hurt (Southern California). 2017 rank: #98
USC hasn't been great at landing their top draft-eligible recruits, but they did grab a solid pitcher in Kyle Hurt. Like UNCW's Greg Jones, he'll be eligible for the draft as a sophomore, and like Jones, he does have work to do. He works with three good pitches in a low 90's fastball, a hard curveball, and a nice changeup, but his curve and change do lack consistency. He looked really good over the summer of 2016, but hurt his knee in the winter and had some bumps in his recovery. Hurt is a little bit of a wild card, but if he overcomes his inconsistency issues, he could be a durable starter for the Trojans.
10. RHP C.J. Van Eyk (Florida State). 2017 rank: #107
Florida State landed the top high school prospect to forgo signing in the 2016 draft, Drew Mendoza, and this year they grabbed the number ten guy, C.J. Van Eyk (as well as would-be #11 Shane Drohan, who just missed this list). Mendoza had a very successful freshman year (10 HR, .270/.400/.534), and Van Eyk will look to follow in his footsteps by making an immediate impact. More talented than a few of the guys above him on this list, Van Eyk only ranks so low because at draft time he was a Tommy John candidate, but it looks like he has avoided the surgery. Van Eyk throws a fastball in the low 90's and has an excellent curveball, though his command does tend to deteriorate has the throws harder. FSU will have two big things to work on with him: helping him bring his command with him into the higher velocity bands and building him up so he can be durable enough to last a full college season. Once that happens, he could be the next Seminole ace. He joins a very talented FSU pitching staff that includes highly regarded 2018 draft prospects Tyler Holton (10-3, 2.34 ERA) and Cole Sands (6-4, 5.40 ERA, but is better than the numbers say) as well as the aforementioned Drohan.
Edit: 3a. SS Brady McConnell (Florida). 2017 rank: #58
I missed McConnell by mistake when originally compiling this list, but he slotted one spot ahead of Vanderbilt's Jake Eder and should have been number three. McConnell is a slick-fielding shortstop with a smooth, powerful swing for a skinny guy, contracting and unloading on pitches with his legs. Unfortunately, because his swing relies on a fair amount of pre-pitch movement, he was a bit inconsistent in the spring and fell from a first round candidate to more of a second round talent, causing him to pack up and head to Gainesville instead of signing with an MLB team. Being that Florida, the reigning national champion, is still perhaps the most talented team in the country, McConnell will join a very talented infield that includes well-regarded draft prospects Jonathan India and Deacon Liput, and his spot may be open with the departure of Dalton Guthrie. We've heard more about the simply ridiculous pitching staff that includes potential first overall pick Brady Singer, fellow potential first rounder Jackson Kowar, and superstar closer Michael Byrne, as well as top recruit Hunter Ruth (see "Others" below), but this Florida team is as well-rounded, talented, and dangerous as college teams come.
Others: #118 LHP Shane Drohan (Florida State), #119 RHP Gavin Williams (East Carolina), #120 RHP Hunter Ruth (Florida), #122 C Philip Clark (Vanderbilt), #127 RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina)
Thursday, July 13, 2017
2017 Draft Review: San Diego Padres
First 5 rounds: MacKenzie Gore (1-3), Luis Campusano (2-39), Blake Hunt (CBB-69), Mason House (3-78), Sam Keating (4-108), Jonny Hozma (5-138)
Also notable: Alex Cunningham (9-258), Dominic Taccolini (10-288), Nick Feight (19-558), Daniel Cabrera (26-768)
The Padres threw all the chips in and took high risk high schoolers with each of their first six picks: two pitchers (always the injury risk), two catchers (low success rate historically), and two guys from way off the prospect map (one who played no major showcase events, one from Alaska...Alaska). The Padres' major league team doesn't really have anything going for it right now other than Wil Myers and the vastly underrated Ryan Schimpf, so they have time to toy around with some high risk, high reward prospects.
1-3: LHP MacKenzie Gore (my rank: 4)
Coming into the season, Gore was in the first round conversation but was projected to go somewhere in the back half or even in the Competitive Balance Round, outside the top 30, but a spectacular spring had his name rocketing up draft boards to the point where he was in the conversation for first overall pick. The Padres ultimately grabbed him with the third pick, even with names like Kyle Wright and Brendan McKay still on the board. The high school lefty from the small town of Whiteville, North Carolina, population fewer than 6,000, is everything scouts love. Aside from being lefty, he's 6'3" and well built, can hit the mid 90's with his fastball, has a big, hard curveball that can put batters away, and has made progress on a changeup. He's extremely competitive in the best way, bringing a bulldog mentality to the mound that reminds some of fellow rural North Carolina lefty Madison Bumgarner. Gore has a lot of wasted movement in his delivery which leads pessimists to believe he'll land in the bullpen, but optimists, myself included, see the opportunity to streamline everything and possibly add even more velocity and sharpness. He has true top of the rotation potential, but as a high school pitcher, he naturally comes with the considerable risk of completely flopping. Gore signed for $6.7 million, which is $31,900 above slot.
2-39: C Luis Campusano (my rank: 51)
Another riser in this draft class, Campusano hit his way to the top of the catching class with M.J. Melendez (Royals, 2-52), coming from high school near Augusta, Georgia. The first thing scouts noticed was that he came into the season in excellent physical condition, which is a plus both on the field, where it helps performance, and off the field, where it hints towards a strong work ethic. While he doesn't project to win any Gold Gloves, he's good enough behind the plate to be able to stick there, though high school catchers have a low success rate historically. At the plate, he is power over contact, showing plus power from a simple swing, but he hasn't proven his ability to make contact against advanced pitching. If he can't make contact, he can't get to his power, and that renders everything else useless. He's got some Rod Barajas in him, but he could end up a far superior player to the former catcher. He'll have to make contact to do so, though. He signed for $1.3 million, $460,700 below slot.
CBB-69: C Blake Hunt (my rank: 96)
Hunt, a southern California high school product, will have a lot of work to do to reach his ceiling. He's great defensively, actually better behind the plate than Campusano, but his swing has more issues. Hunt possesses some power potential with his short, powerful swing, but he doesn't get much extension and his stride doesn't gain any ground. The Padres will have to toy with both the stride and his swing path, giving him lots of bust potential, but between him and Campusano, the Padres are hoping to get their next MLB catcher. Hunt signed for $1.6 million, $751,400 above slot.
3-78: OF Mason House (my rank: 85)
For some reason, all of the public baseball video on House amounts to one swing, so I have to lean heavily on online scouting reports. He's a power left handed bat who scouts had a tough time evaluating because he didn't play any major showcase events, and his small town Whitehouse, Texas high school didn't play any high level competition. From that one in-game swing I saw online, the swing seems a bit long, but being raw is forgivable in his case. He's a good athlete who can run, so he's not a one-dimensional bat, and he'll be an interesting prospect to follow. House signed for $732,200, at slot for the 78th pick.
4-108: RHP Sam Keating (unranked)
Keating is on the right trajectory, with his velocity and stuff improving steadily over the past year. He began sitting consistently in the low 90's this spring, and his slider and curveball have become more distinct from each other. He has a loose arm and an easy delivery, so as long as he stays healthy and continues his current path, he could be a big league starter. Standing 6'3", he's a classic starting pitching prospect. Keating signed for $900,000, which is $403,000 over slot.
26-768: OF Daniel Cabrera (my rank: 73)
Cabrera won't sign here in the 26th round, likely instead attending LSU, but he's a solid hit over power prospect. He has a quick left handed, line drive swing, and he should be a safe bet to hit for average and get on base at higher levels. However, most of his other tools are at or below average, and he isn't overall an exciting prospect. That could change after three years in Baton Rouge, but for now, he'll have to prove he can be more than a one-dimensional player.
Others: 5th rounder Jonny Homza comes from South Anchorage High School in Alaska, but the Padres were able to buy him out of attending Hawaii for $250,000, which is $121,200 under slot. He was drafted as a third baseman despite his ability to catch, and he has a strong swing that is similar to Blake Hunt's. As an extreme cold weather player, he has a lot of work to do, but it could pay off. 9th rounder Alex Cunningham was an integral part of Coastal Carolina's run to the 2016 NCAA Championship, going 10-4 with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP, but he returned to school this year and was even better. As a senior, he went 7-2 with a 2.63 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP, striking out 117 batters in 106 innings while walking just 24. Already 23, he should be a quick mover through the minors, already seeing a promotion to High Class A Lake Elsinore. 10th rounder Dominic Taccolini played four years at Arkansas, alongside the likes of Andrew Benintendi, Zach Jackson, and Blaine Knight, but he never quite put it together on the mound. He finished with a decent senior year, going 4-1 with a 4.24 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP against tough SEC competition, striking out 49 in 51 innings. Taccolini will also be a quick mover through the minors, likely as a reliever whose stuff could suddenly jump forward in pro ball. 19th rounder Nick Feight was a big reason that UNC-Wilmington's offense was among the most feared in college baseball in 2016, slashing .349/.412/.726 with 21 home runs against admittedly weak Colonial Athletic Association competition. He took a small step back in 2017, slashing .293/.355/.536 with 15 home runs as a junior, and as a first baseman, his bat will have to carry him. The Northern Virginia native (Battlefield HS) performed reasonably well on the Cape (.270/.316/.416), but he's likely an organizational bat unless he can take a big step forward offensively.
Also notable: Alex Cunningham (9-258), Dominic Taccolini (10-288), Nick Feight (19-558), Daniel Cabrera (26-768)
The Padres threw all the chips in and took high risk high schoolers with each of their first six picks: two pitchers (always the injury risk), two catchers (low success rate historically), and two guys from way off the prospect map (one who played no major showcase events, one from Alaska...Alaska). The Padres' major league team doesn't really have anything going for it right now other than Wil Myers and the vastly underrated Ryan Schimpf, so they have time to toy around with some high risk, high reward prospects.
1-3: LHP MacKenzie Gore (my rank: 4)
Coming into the season, Gore was in the first round conversation but was projected to go somewhere in the back half or even in the Competitive Balance Round, outside the top 30, but a spectacular spring had his name rocketing up draft boards to the point where he was in the conversation for first overall pick. The Padres ultimately grabbed him with the third pick, even with names like Kyle Wright and Brendan McKay still on the board. The high school lefty from the small town of Whiteville, North Carolina, population fewer than 6,000, is everything scouts love. Aside from being lefty, he's 6'3" and well built, can hit the mid 90's with his fastball, has a big, hard curveball that can put batters away, and has made progress on a changeup. He's extremely competitive in the best way, bringing a bulldog mentality to the mound that reminds some of fellow rural North Carolina lefty Madison Bumgarner. Gore has a lot of wasted movement in his delivery which leads pessimists to believe he'll land in the bullpen, but optimists, myself included, see the opportunity to streamline everything and possibly add even more velocity and sharpness. He has true top of the rotation potential, but as a high school pitcher, he naturally comes with the considerable risk of completely flopping. Gore signed for $6.7 million, which is $31,900 above slot.
2-39: C Luis Campusano (my rank: 51)
Another riser in this draft class, Campusano hit his way to the top of the catching class with M.J. Melendez (Royals, 2-52), coming from high school near Augusta, Georgia. The first thing scouts noticed was that he came into the season in excellent physical condition, which is a plus both on the field, where it helps performance, and off the field, where it hints towards a strong work ethic. While he doesn't project to win any Gold Gloves, he's good enough behind the plate to be able to stick there, though high school catchers have a low success rate historically. At the plate, he is power over contact, showing plus power from a simple swing, but he hasn't proven his ability to make contact against advanced pitching. If he can't make contact, he can't get to his power, and that renders everything else useless. He's got some Rod Barajas in him, but he could end up a far superior player to the former catcher. He'll have to make contact to do so, though. He signed for $1.3 million, $460,700 below slot.
CBB-69: C Blake Hunt (my rank: 96)
Hunt, a southern California high school product, will have a lot of work to do to reach his ceiling. He's great defensively, actually better behind the plate than Campusano, but his swing has more issues. Hunt possesses some power potential with his short, powerful swing, but he doesn't get much extension and his stride doesn't gain any ground. The Padres will have to toy with both the stride and his swing path, giving him lots of bust potential, but between him and Campusano, the Padres are hoping to get their next MLB catcher. Hunt signed for $1.6 million, $751,400 above slot.
3-78: OF Mason House (my rank: 85)
For some reason, all of the public baseball video on House amounts to one swing, so I have to lean heavily on online scouting reports. He's a power left handed bat who scouts had a tough time evaluating because he didn't play any major showcase events, and his small town Whitehouse, Texas high school didn't play any high level competition. From that one in-game swing I saw online, the swing seems a bit long, but being raw is forgivable in his case. He's a good athlete who can run, so he's not a one-dimensional bat, and he'll be an interesting prospect to follow. House signed for $732,200, at slot for the 78th pick.
4-108: RHP Sam Keating (unranked)
Keating is on the right trajectory, with his velocity and stuff improving steadily over the past year. He began sitting consistently in the low 90's this spring, and his slider and curveball have become more distinct from each other. He has a loose arm and an easy delivery, so as long as he stays healthy and continues his current path, he could be a big league starter. Standing 6'3", he's a classic starting pitching prospect. Keating signed for $900,000, which is $403,000 over slot.
26-768: OF Daniel Cabrera (my rank: 73)
Cabrera won't sign here in the 26th round, likely instead attending LSU, but he's a solid hit over power prospect. He has a quick left handed, line drive swing, and he should be a safe bet to hit for average and get on base at higher levels. However, most of his other tools are at or below average, and he isn't overall an exciting prospect. That could change after three years in Baton Rouge, but for now, he'll have to prove he can be more than a one-dimensional player.
Others: 5th rounder Jonny Homza comes from South Anchorage High School in Alaska, but the Padres were able to buy him out of attending Hawaii for $250,000, which is $121,200 under slot. He was drafted as a third baseman despite his ability to catch, and he has a strong swing that is similar to Blake Hunt's. As an extreme cold weather player, he has a lot of work to do, but it could pay off. 9th rounder Alex Cunningham was an integral part of Coastal Carolina's run to the 2016 NCAA Championship, going 10-4 with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP, but he returned to school this year and was even better. As a senior, he went 7-2 with a 2.63 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP, striking out 117 batters in 106 innings while walking just 24. Already 23, he should be a quick mover through the minors, already seeing a promotion to High Class A Lake Elsinore. 10th rounder Dominic Taccolini played four years at Arkansas, alongside the likes of Andrew Benintendi, Zach Jackson, and Blaine Knight, but he never quite put it together on the mound. He finished with a decent senior year, going 4-1 with a 4.24 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP against tough SEC competition, striking out 49 in 51 innings. Taccolini will also be a quick mover through the minors, likely as a reliever whose stuff could suddenly jump forward in pro ball. 19th rounder Nick Feight was a big reason that UNC-Wilmington's offense was among the most feared in college baseball in 2016, slashing .349/.412/.726 with 21 home runs against admittedly weak Colonial Athletic Association competition. He took a small step back in 2017, slashing .293/.355/.536 with 15 home runs as a junior, and as a first baseman, his bat will have to carry him. The Northern Virginia native (Battlefield HS) performed reasonably well on the Cape (.270/.316/.416), but he's likely an organizational bat unless he can take a big step forward offensively.
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