Showing posts with label Maddux Bruns. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Maddux Bruns. Show all posts

Thursday, July 15, 2021

2021 MLB Draft Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

Full list of draftees

The Dodgers went for a pitching-heavy class here, taking arms with seventeen of nineteen picks and not even drafting a position player until the sixteenth round. They started it off with two high school arms with massive upside, the kind that an excellent player develop pipeline like theirs can turn into aces. Behind them, they picked up a mix of quite a few different types of arms, all of whom have a chance to become legitimate impact prospects in this system. It's easy to like what the Dodgers do when you know they're going to maximize the talent of the guys they brought in. If I had to pick one favorite pick, it would be third rounder Peter Heubeck.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.

1-29: LHP Maddux Bruns, UMS-Wright HS [AL]. My rank: #88.
By looking at the draft ranking, you might think I don't like this pick. And honestly I don't love it, but you have to think about the team drafting the player as well as who the player is. The Dodgers, frankly, have some of the best player development in the league, and Maddux Bruns' raw talent fits right into this system. Bruns has some of the best raw stuff in the class, coming in with a low to mid 90's fastball that has touched as high as 98 in addition to a hammer of a curveball a distinct slider, and a changeup. It all comes from a big 6'2" frame and seems to get a little extra oomph on it as he works aggressively downhill with his entire body. Named for Greg Maddux, Bruns differs from his namesake in that his control and command are very much a work in progress. He had times over the summer where he lost complete control of the strike zone, and while he looked better during his spring season in Mobile, he's still firmly below average in that regard. The lefty is also old for a high schooler, having turned 19 in June, theoretically giving him less time to develop that finer feel for pitching. That's why he's a perfect fit for the Dodgers, who consistently bring out the absolute best in their players and could turn him into a monster. Though he's committed to defending champion Mississippi State, it looks like the Dodgers got him early enough in the draft that the $2.42 million slot value should be plenty and he could even go a bit below slot.

3-101: RHP Peter Heubeck, Gilman HS [MD]. My rank: #54.
If I were a Dodger fan, I would be thrilled with this pick. Peter Heubeck had legitimate top fifty upside, and if he were still available at this point in the draft, you'd have thought he'd be headed to school. The Dodgers snagged him anyways and will likely pay him a hefty bonus, and when you pair him with Maddux Bruns, the rest of the NL West should be scared. Heubeck is a 6'3" righty that comfortably sits in the low 90's with his fastball for now, topping out around 95, but with plenty of room to add more velocity. He adds a downer curveball that has gotten more consistent this spring, flashing plus at times, and has shown feel for a changeup as well. Over the summer, he struggled to repeat his delivery at times and that led to inconsistent command. However, he quieted it down a bit this year and did a better job of filling up the strike zone, and the more consistent delivery helped his stuff play up as well. One of Heubeck's best aspects is his ability to get down the mound and release the ball out in front, putting nice ride and high spin rates on his pitches. There's top of the rotation upside here, though like Bruns, he's old for the class and will turn 19 shortly after I publish this article. The Baltimore native is committed to Wake Forest and will likely require a signing bonus well above the $577,000 slot value.

4-131: RHP Nick Nastrini, UCLA. My rank: #219.
Staying right in their backyard, the Dodgers headed over to Westwood to make their next pick. Nick Nastrini came into the season with the chance to pitch his way into the top two rounds, but instead saw his command completely implode and finished with a 6.89 ERA and a 48/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.1 innings for UCLA. Heading into the season, he was a guy who did a lot of things well and was waiting to put it all together, especially considering he was finally on the mound consistently after a couple of years of battling thoracic outlet syndrome and a pandemic shutdown. His fastball ticked into the low to mid 90's and reached as high as 98, while he also showed the high spin curveball, slider, and above average changeup that he's always had. However, after showing average command in his first two years at UCLA, Nastrini simply could not find the zone in 2021 and walked nearly a quarter of the hitters he faced. The command spiraled downward as the season progressed, too – after walking only ten batters in his first 17.2 innings, he walked fifteen over his next ten innings and thirteen over his final 3.2. At that point, you have to think it's in his head more than anything else. When he's on, you have a well-built, 6'3" righthander with a full arsenal, a history of throwing strikes, and a relatively clean delivery (albeit with a bit of a late arm), so there's definitely starter upside here, but he's a reclamation project for the Dodgers' development staff. Slot value here is $430,800, but I expect the San Diego native to sign for less.

5-162: RHP Ben Casparius, Connecticut. My rank: #174.
Ben Casparius is a pretty different arm from Nick Nastrini. After beginning his career at UNC, he transferred back home to Connecticut in 2020 and after sitting out the pandemic-shortened season, he burst onto the scene as UConn's ace. In fifteen starts, the Westport, Connecticut native put up a 4.03 ERA and a 127/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.2 innings, though that ERA actually sat at 3.07 until his final start of the season in which he allowed eleven earned runs to a white hot Notre Dame offense. Casparius doesn't have any plus pitches, but he gets it done with three average to above average offerings in a low 90's fastball, a slider, and an above average changeup that functions as his bread and butter. A dogged competitor, his command may be average in a vacuum, but it plays up due to his willingness to attack the strike zone and go after hitters, and he's been noted as a hard worker off the field as well. Almost 22 and a half, the 6' righty might not come with the upside of Bruns or Heubeck, but he should work as a bit of a balance for this draft class and work his way up as a back-end starter. Slot value is $318,200, but I don't expect him to need that much to sign.

6-192: RHP Emmet Sheehan, Boston College. Unranked.
Emmet Sheehan was a breakout performer for Boston College this spring, putting up a 4.23 ERA and a 106/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 76.2 innings. He has a pretty average profile on the surface, but again, it's an interesting one that a team like the Dodgers would love to mold. Hailing from the same region of southwestern Connecticut as Ben Casparius, Sheehan brings a low 90's fastball that was ticking into the mid 90's more often as the season went on, adding in a curveball and changeup that are average for now. However, there's a lot the Dodgers can do here. His fastball rides while his changeup fades, and while his curveball lacks power, it has plenty of depth when he snaps it right. A tweak here and a tweak there, and you have a very interesting starting pitching prospect. The 6'5" righty needs to get more consistent with his changeup, add a little power to that curve, and tighten up his command just a little bit to help tunnel his pitches better, all very doable things for the Los Angeles development pipeline. This will be a fun sleeper to follow. Slot value is $247,000 and I doubt he'll require more than that to sign.

11-342: LHP Justin Wrobleski, Oklahoma State. Unranked.
To start off day three, the Dodgers opted for an injured arm in Justin Wrobleski, who went down with Tommy John surgery in April. Wrobleski began his career at Clemson, transferred to the State College of Florida, then on to Oklahoma State for his junior year. His brief time there was up and down, as he posted a 4.20 ERA and a 50/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 40.2 innings, though it should be noted that four of those walks came in his final inning before the injury. He's a 6'1" lefty with a low 90's fastball that gets up to about 95, while his best pitch is an above average slider that flashes legitimate plus from the left side. Coming from a closed off delivery, he gets a nice combination of sweep and depth on the pitch and it can be deadly against both lefties and righties. He also throws an average changeup. Command has come and gone for the Atlanta-area native, and ultimately he may not profile as more than a reliever, but I noted him as an interesting sleeper coming into the season and it will be interesting to see what happens once he gets some consistent innings in the Dodgers system, if he's signable. Wrobleski is also young for the class and didn't turn 21 until the day after the draft, which may make him less signable, so we'll see.

12-372: LHP Ronan Kopp, South Mountain JC [AZ]. Unranked.
Now this is a player development project if there ever was one. Ronan Kopp is a massive, 6'7", 250 pound lefty out of Arizona. He grew up in Scottsdale and was originally set to head due south to Arizona State, but instead of heading to Tempe, he switched his commitment to South Mountain JC just a bit to the southwest in Phoenix proper. There, he was inconsistent, with a 2.84 ERA and a 38/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings. Kopp generates easy, easy velocity with his massive frame, running his fastball into the upper 90's at times without expending much effort or working his kinetic chain as effectively as he might be able to with more coaching. There's also a breaking ball that has looked good at times, but he has never found any consistency with it whatsoever. Throw in well below average command and a delivery that needs to be cleaned up considerably, and you have a lot of work to do. But Kopp's combination of size, strength, and handedness is hard to find, and the Dodgers are hoping to strike gold and bring it all out of him. Working in Kopp's favor is age, as he's very young for his class and is actually a little bit younger than Bruns and Heubeck. Signability is always a question with teenagers in the twelfth round, but considering he switched his commitment from Arizona State to South Mountain in part to be eligible this year, you have to think there's a good chance he is signable.

Friday, July 2, 2021

2021 MLB Draft: Ten Options for the Nationals at pick #11 (final update)

The draft is almost here, so I'll be updating this story one more time. The Nationals pick at #11 and have been almost exclusively tied to arms, so that will be the focus here, but I do see three to four bats that could make sense if the Nationals want to buck some trends (and make me happy). 

First, I'll give my opinion on who I think the Nationals should draft. There are six players who I would give virtually no chance of reaching the Nationals, and those are high school shortstops Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawlar, Brady House, and Kahlil Watson, in addition to Vanderbilt righthander Jack Leiter and Louisville catcher Henry Davis. If one of those falls to #11, the Nationals should 100% snatch one up if the signing bonus is remotely reasonable. There's also Vanderbilt ace Kumar Rocker, who is very unlikely to be available at #11, but he seems to have at least a sliver of a chance of getting down there and I absolutely don't see the Nationals passing him up if he's available. I'd go for it in that case as well. Jackson Jobe seems to be in the same boat, but prep righthanders tend to slide in the draft and if he's available with a remotely reasonable signing bonus, again I think the Nationals should pounce. In the event that all eight are gone, which is likely, there are two college bats I think the Nationals should focus on. I'd take Boston College outfielder Sal Frelick out of the remaining players, and if he's gone along with the other eight, I'd go with UCLA shortstop Matt McLain. Then in the unlikely scenario that those are the top ten picks, I'm a bit lost because I think there's a slight break in the quality of players, so I would either pick Will Bednar or just grab Gunnar Hoglund, sign him below slot, then overspend at pick #47. Below is what would be my board if I were the Nationals picking at #11, not what I think their board is, color coded by how likely they are to be available. Red is definitely not, orange is probably not, yellow is 50-50, and green is most likely.

Marcelo Mayer, Jack Leiter, Henry Davis, Brady House, Kahlil Watson, Kumar Rocker, Jackson Jobe, Sal Frelick, Matt McLain, Will Bednar, Gunnar Hoglund

Without further introduction, here are the ten players I think the Nationals are most likely to end up with at #11, ordered by likelihood. I'm not a reporter, so these are more just guesses than anything else. Slot value is just over $4.54 million and the Nationals' overall bonus pool for their top ten rounds is $8.77 million.

1. RHP Jackson Jobe, Heritage Hall HS, OK
As I said in the previous paragraph, I don't think Jackson Jobe will make it out of the top ten, as he's getting interest as high as #3 to the Tigers. However, in the event that he does, I can absolutely see Mike Rizzo smashing Jobe's name into the keyboard or doing whatever he does to make his picks with extra zeal. The Oklahoma City product is relatively new to pitching, but his name has been rocketing up boards ever since his dominant summer a year ago. His fastball is now sitting comfortably in the low to mid 90's and has touched 98, but that's not his main weapon. Jobe's slider is arguably the best breaking ball in the entire high school class, coming in with absurd spin rates that cause it to shoot down and away from righties or into lefties at the last second. That feel for spin translates to his curveball, which is a distinct and above average pitch in its own right, and he possesses one of the better changeups in the high school class as well. Together with a clean delivery and notable athleticism, he consistently deals strikes and really has all the ingredients to be an impact starting pitcher. Aside from his demographic, that of an inherently risky high school righthander, Jobe only has one thing working against him – age. He'll turn 19 a few weeks after the draft, making him one of the older players in the class, but everything else is so good that that should not be a factor. He'll likely demand an enormous signing bonus, probably the highest on this list of ten, to keep from attending Mississippi, where he'll be draft-eligible as a sophomore in 2023.

2. RHP Ty Madden, Texas
2021 stats: 7-5, 2.45 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 137/44 K/BB in 113.2 IP.
While he is getting some looks in the back of the top ten and could end up in Colorado at #8 or Los Angeles at #9, there is a very good shot that Ty Madden is available for the Nationals at #11. The unquestioned ace of the most complete pitching staff in the country (sorry, Vanderbilt), Madden is everything the Nationals love – a big, durable, consistent performer who has the look of a mid-rotation starter. He combines arm strength with pitchability, creating the type of pitcher that does not grow on trees. Madden's fastball comes in with low to mid 90's velocity, getting up to 99 at times early in games, and he adds a potentially plus slider that plays very well off his fastball. His changeup can be a bit inconsistent, but when it's on, it gives him a third potentially above average pitch, which will help him pitch deep into games. He commands all three pitches very well, pounding the bottom of the strike zone and missing bats in bunches. If there's anything to nitpick with the Houston-area native, it's something called his VAA, or vertical approach angle. Because the 6'3" righty comes from such a high release point, everything he throws has significant downward plane, which plays very well around hitters knees and below. However, he has gotten hit harder when he leaves pitches up, and in today's launch angle-conscious game that has more hitters going for high VBA's – vertical barrel angles, – it will be especially difficult for him to be effective in that part of the zone in pro ball. Fortunately, his command means that he won't miss his spots often, and his velocity gives him some margin for error.

3. RHP Sam Bachman, Miami [OH]
2021 stats: 4-4, 1.81 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 93/17 K/BB in 59.2 IP.
Sam Bachman's draft outlook is probably about the same as Madden's with some teams interested in the back of the top ten but a good chance of reaching #11. If both he and Madden are available for the Nationals, it will be an interesting decision for Rizzo, as both pitchers seem to fit his models but for very different reasons. While Madden is durable and consistent, Bachman is more of a power arm that comes with significant durability questions, but we know Rizzo has never been one to shy away from injured or potentially-injury prone arms. Bachman's raw stuff is elite, perhaps the best in the entire class outside of the Vanderbilt duo of Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker. The 6'1" righty deals regularly in the mid 90's with his fastball and has touched as high as 101, but it's not just the velocity that makes it a special pitch. He also comes from an extremely low release point while still maintaining a three quarters arm slot, putting tremendous ride on the pitch that makes it play exceptionally well up in the zone. And with his velocity, even when he misses over the plate, it's tough to square up. Bachman also adds a plus slider that breaks late and tight, playing well off the fastball. As with Madden, his changeup has been a bit less consistent, but it too flashes above average and like Madden, he could have three plus pitches at the major league level. While he doesn't quite parallel the Longhorn ace in the command arena, his ability to hit his spots is trending upwards and he fills up the strike zone very consistently, setting himself apart from other data-friendly power arms. The drawback here is durability, as the Indianapolis-area native throws with considerable effort and some evaluators don't like his arm action. Additionally, he missed a few weeks this spring with arm soreness and I don't think he ever threw 100 pitches in a game, so he comes with considerable relief risk even if the pure stuff and command fit in the rotation. Personally, I'd pull the trigger on Bachman before Madden, but I'm not sure about Rizzo.

4. SS Matt McLain, UCLA
2021 stats: 9 HR, .333/.434/.579, 9 SB, 34/34 K/BB in 47 games.
Jackson Jobe, Ty Madden, and Sam Bachman seem like the clear frontrunners to me, so after those three this list definitely becomes guesswork. If the Nationals were to pass on an arm and pick up a bat, UCLA shortstop Matt McLain seems like the most likely bet to me. He was extremely well regarded coming out of his Los Angeles-area high school, but surprisingly turned down the Diamondbacks after being drafted 25th overall in 2018. His time at UCLA has been up and down, but there have been more ups and than downs and he was on a tear before going down with a broken thumb in May, then picked up where he left off in a brief return. Though he's just 5'11" and skinny at that, he has always possessed great feel to hit and has learned to drive the ball more and more consistently throughout his time in Los Angeles, now projecting for at least average power. He also tightened up the strike zone in 2021, aiding projections for a plus hit tool, and his plus speed enables him to be a factor on the basepaths. The jury is still out on whether he can stick at shortstop long term, as he has the athleticism to profile there but his feel for the spot has been inconsistent. Either way, he profiles as a plus defender at second base, so you're getting significant value on the defensive side to go along with his top-of-the-lineup offensive upside. Personally, I'd prefer McLain over both Madden and Bachman.

5. RHP Will Bednar, Mississippi State
2021 stats: 9-1, 3.12 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 139/26 K/BB in 92.1 IP.
When I first started working on this list, I didn't include Will Bednar, despite the fact that I personally would have considered him at #11 if I were picking. However, after dominating at the College World Series and allowing no hits in the final game, he seems to be much more of a realistic target for Mike Rizzo and co. Bednar has been trending straight up since he landed in Starkville with a 2.93 ERA and a 37% strikeout rate (162 in 107.2 innings) against top competition, and he can attack hitters in a lot of ways. His main weapon is a low to mid 90's fastball that can hit 96-97 early in games but usually settles into the 91-94 range, playing up because it has tremendous riding life that plays extremely well up in the zone. He adds a plus slider with extreme horizontal sweep, then can go to an average curve and changeup that he uses significantly less often. While the Pittsburgh-area native doesn't have pinpoint command, he generally fills up the strike zone and has gotten better at locating his pitches to all four quadrants even as his stuff has leapt forward. He has a durable 6'2" frame and looks the part of a #2 starter.

6. OF Sal Frelick, Boston College
2021 stats: 6 HR, .359/.443/.559, 13 SB, 28/27 K/BB in 48 games.
Sal Frelick's draft stock is in a similar place to McLain's, if perhaps a tick better, and I would prefer Frelick if both he and McLain were available. In fact, among the players with any significant chance to reach the Nationals at pick #11, Frelick is the one I want. He elevated his profile this year by coming out of the gate hot when most other first round bats stumbled, and he maintained the hot hitting to finish the season hitting .359/.443/.559 with just a 12.3% strikeout rate. Undersized at 5'9", he's an elite athlete that plays with a ton of energy, giving him the ability to impact the game in numerous ways. He makes a ton of contact with plus bat to ball skills and excellent adjustability in his left handed swing that helps him find the barrel even against tough pitches, and when he gets one over the plate, he has enough power to make you pay. The Boston-area native is a plus runner that will gladly steal a base or two and will stick in center field, though some have toyed with trying him at second base. Personally, I'd just leave him at center and let him run wild. If the Nationals drafted him, he would immediately become the most dynamic player in their system.

7. RHP Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi
2021 stats: 4-2, 2.87 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 96/17 K/BB in 62.2 IP.
#11 overall might be a bit early to nab a pitcher fresh off spring Tommy John surgery, but Mike Rizzo has never shied away from injured pitchers early in the draft and depending on who's available here, I wouldn't mind the pick either. Aside from a healthy right arm, Gunnar Hoglund has everything you look for in a starting pitching prospect – velocity, two offspeed pitches, command, a clean delivery, consistent performance, and an upward trajectory. His fastball previously sat effortlessly around 90, but the 6'4" righty added some juice in 2021 and ticked up to about 92-94, touching as high as 97 early in games. After mostly pitching off his fastball early in his career, he began to lean more on an improved slider in 2021 that touched the upper 80's, getting consistently above average grades. And as the season moved on, he began incorporating a surprisingly good changeup more and more, giving him three above average pitches to work with. On top of all of that, he has regularly been noted as having some of the best command in the class, easily locating all of his pitches where he wants them. There are no weaknesses in this profile and given that Tommy John is becoming more and more of a regularity, the Tampa-area native could present Rizzo with a really interesting discount option. From there, Mike can overspend at pick #47, perhaps on a high school arm like Frank Mozzicato, Ben Kudrna, or Maddux Bruns, though I would personally prefer Mozzicato or Kudrna to Bruns (and I'd prefer a high school bat over all three of them, though I doubt Rizzo would go that route).

8. OF Colton Cowser, Sam Houston State
2021 stats: 16 HR, .374/.490/.680, 17 SB, 32/42 K/BB in 55 games.
Fun fact, Colton Cowser was actually teammates with Ty Madden at Cypress Ranch High School in the Houston suburbs, and they were actually the third and fourth best prospects on that team at the time behind 2019 draftees JJ Goss (Rays, 36th overall) and Matthew Thompson (White Sox, 45th overall). He's been on a tear since late March, once homering four times in two games and another time going deep in five consecutive games, all while pushing his on-base percentage close to .500. Evaluators have long been waiting for him to grow into his 6'3" frame and start tapping his power, and he showed this year he has a chance to be average in that regard. Cowser is also an excellent contact hitter who consistently puts together professional at bats, showing that with significantly more walks (42) than strikeouts (32) in 2021. Though he wasn't facing the toughest competition in the Southland Conference, he did perform well with the US Collegiate National Team back in 2019, so evaluators are very comfortable with his offensive profile. He's also an above average runner who can swipe a base and be a net-positive in the outfield, where he projects as a fringy centerfielder or an above average corner guy. Cowser profiles as a potential leadoff guy who can hit 15-20 home runs per season for the Nationals down the line.

9. RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt
2021 stats: 14-4, 2.73 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 179/39 K/BB in 122 IP.
I think it's highly unlikely Kumar Rocker makes it all the way to the Nationals. There has been some talk of him going as high as fifth overall to the Orioles, while the Diamondbacks at #6 and the Royals at #7 have shown interest as well. But if the chips fall that way and Rocker gets out of the top ten, I absolutely do not see Mike Rizzo letting him go any further. At this point, we all know the book on Kumar. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's deep into games, with his extension making the pitch play up. Rocker's slider is one of the best pitches in college baseball when he's commanding it, making even advanced hitters look like absolute fools. He throws a cutter that has a chance to be an above average pitch and while he has shown a changeup in the past, he didn't use it much in 2021 and it wasn't particularly effective when he broke it out late in the season. Rocker has also been noted as a control-over-command pitcher throughout his career, one who has no trouble filling up the strike zone or eliciting chases but who struggles to hit spots within the zone. Regardless, his exceptional track record in the SEC and strong makeup that enables him to step up when the lights shine the brightest will not be lost on scouting directors come draft day, and the stuff is so good that he can afford merely average command in pro ball and still succeed. If the command steps up from 50 to 55, he'll be an ace.

10. RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS, FL
Eleventh overall feels a touch too early to grab Andrew Painter, but Mike Rizzo loves himself a high school pitcher and if Jackson Jobe is off the board, he could come into consideration. Painter entered the spring as the top pitching prospect in the high school class, but a combination of a loud spring from Jobe and a slow start for Painter changed that. He turned it around as the season went on, helping most traditional evaluators feel comfortable that he is still the second best. Painter is a huge, 6'6" righthander that combines physical projection with present stuff and pitchability. His fastball gets up to 95-96 without much effort, and he holds the low 90's deep into games. The South Florida product adds a pair of distinct, above average breaking balls, while his changeup is more advanced than that of most high school pitchers. He commands everything well, giving him an extremely well-rounded profile at a young age that reminds some of Mick Abel a year ago, albeit with less glowing numbers on the analytic side. The reason Painter might belong closer to the back of the first round is just that, the analytics, as some see a more traditional arsenal that doesn't stand out in today's game of high spin rates. Personally, I see Gage Jump and Chase Petty as the second and third best high school pitchers in the class, but my guess is the Nationals have Painter as #2 behind Jobe. He'll likely be an expensive sign with a Florida commitment, but at #11, I don't see him going above slot value.

Potential Second Round Targets

I mentioned a few times that the Nationals might elect to save some money early on with a pick like Gunnar Hoglund or Gavin Williams, or perhaps even on any number of other players on this list not named Jobe or Rocker (albeit less), and that would enable them to go after an expensive high schooler in the second round at pick #47. Knowing the Nationals, that would likely be a high school pitcher. Some options there:

LHP Frank Mozzicato, East Catholic HS, CT
Mozzicato has been flying up boards late in the spring once the Connecticut high school season finally got started, absolutely dominating his Hartford-area competition with a low 90's fastball and one of the best curveballs in the high school class. He's young for the class and has projection remaining in his 6'3" frame, but that projection is important considering he only tops out at 93 as of now. He's a UConn recruit.

RHP Ben Kudrna, Blue Valley Southwest HS, KS
Kudrna hasn't burst onto the scene quite like Mozzicato, but he's been quietly sliding up boards for a long time now. His fastball has ticked up into the mid 90's and he fills up the strike zone with an above average slider and changeup, all from a clean, repeatable delivery. The Kansas City-area product doesn't quite have the bat-missing stuff to project as an ace, but he has a higher floor than most high school pitchers. He's committed to LSU.

LHP Maddux Bruns, UMS-Wright Prep HS, AL
Named after Greg Maddux, this 6'2" lefty has a bit of a different profile. The Mobile native has huge raw stuff, led by a fastball that has reportedly touches the upper 90's, as well as a plus curveball and an above average slider. It's power, power, power, but at this point he has extremely inconsistent command that can be anywhere from average to non-playable. Bruns is one day shy of a full year older than Mozzicato, so he's already 19 and will be draft-eligible after two years at Mississippi State if he gets there. I would prefer both Mozzicato and Kudrna heavily to Bruns.

This is an extremely deep class of high school bats, so there will undoubtedly be numerous available at #47 that really shouldn't be there. They'll be very expensive at this point and will require an above-slot bonus, but if the Nationals save money at pick #11, they should be able to get one. I think it's much more likely they go for a pitcher, but I would really like one of the bats.

SS Max Muncy, Thousand Oaks HS, CA
No, not that Max Muncy. This Muncy (no relation) really stands out for his feel for the game, and even if he's not the most athletic player in the class, he understands his body and maximizes the production he gets out of his 6'1" frame. He has a chance to be a very well-rounded player who could improve quickly with pro coaching and conditioning. He's committed to Arkansas.

3B Wes Kath, Desert Mountain HS, AZ
Kath has been trending up this spring as one of the most well-rounded bats in the West. He combines a strong feel to hit with impressive raw power in his sturdy, 6'3" frame, giving him the chance for both high on-base percentages and high slugging percentages. He has the arm for third base and may be able to stick there. Kath is an Arizona State commit.

SS James Triantos, James Madison HS, VA
Okay, pick #47 might be just a little bit rich for James Triantos, but we have to include the local kid. Oh yeah, and he plays at my alma mater and I used to take batting practice in his backyard, so while I haven't seen him hit since he was in middle school, I'm following this one pretty closely. Triantos has absolutely ripped the cover off the ball this spring, helping lead Madison High School in Vienna to its first state championship since 2015, a team which I was on. He produces great leverage through the zone that gives him power to all fields, and he simply hasn't swung and missed this spring, either. He's probably a third baseman long term and while he's a UNC commit, signability likely won't be an issue this early.