Showing posts with label Miami Marlins. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Miami Marlins. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 7, 2026

2026 MLB Draft Review: Miami Marlins

Full list of draftees

The Miami Marlins executed a clear strategy here to put together a very interesting draft class. First, they surprisingly landed one of the top players in the entire class and a hometown kid in the middle of the first round, then selected back to back safe bet back-end starting pitchers. With their first four picks, they saved an impressive $900K, which they spent on a slew of sleeper prep prospects. Contact/speed bat Wessley Roberson was the most expensive, but they also brought in real deep sleepers in a pair of raw, projectable trees in the 6'6" Nic Tolbert and the 6'8" Bane Barker later on, then finished with two-way threat Joey Lawson. I of course love getting Jacob Lombard below slot, though I am otherwise a bit underwhelmed with a class that featured four of the first 87 picks and all the capital that comes with it. If any of these preps hit, though, it will be a success.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-14: SS Jacob Lombard, Gulliver Prep HS [FL]
Slot value: $5.44 million. Signing bonus: $5 million ($444,900 below slot value).
My rank: #5. MLB Pipeline: #5. ESPN: #6.
Five years ago, the Marlins surprised the baseball world by floating potential top-five pick and star prep Kahlil Watson down to the #16 overall pick. While Watson was eventually traded to Cleveland and hasn't quite put things together yet, the Marlins are following an eerily similar path in 2026. Jacob Lombard too was universally regarded as one of the top preps in the country, with serious interest in the top five picks and most major outlets ranking him in the top six or seven. Not only did he make it down to fourteen, he even signed below slot value. Previously a Miami commit, he'll hop off I-95 a few exits earlier on his way to LoanDepot Park instead. So who is the new hometown star? Jacob Lombard is the younger brother of Yankees rookie star George Lombard Jr. and the son of former big league outfielder George Lombard Sr., and he is now the highest drafted of the trio. Long a famous name in the class, he had eyes on the #1 overall pick until a so-so summer knocked him down just a few pegs behind rising names like Roch Cholowsky and Grady Emerson. He swung and missed just a bit more than scouts hoped, so he headed back to Miami with something to prove. At Gulliver Prep just two miles from the University of Miami campus and eight miles from LoanDepot, he showed scouts everything they wanted to see with a strong senior season where he stood out as the clear cut best hitter in the state of Florida. Listed at 6'3", 195 pounds, he is as tooled up as they come with strength, athleticism, and projection to dream on. He stands out for plus power from the right side, a product of his strength and great leverage in his right handed swing. He taps that power consistently by getting the ball up in the air and effectively channeling his strength through the baseball, making for an extremely dangerous bat. The hit tool may have more questions and is likely the reason he lasted about a half dozen-plus picks past where he was expected to go. Lombard has a long track record with the bat on the showcase circuit, but it appears teams may be slightly more turned off by the aforementioned swing and miss he showed in the summer of 2025 that caused several them to look elsewhere in the top ten picks. The swing can get grooved at times and pro pitchers will begin to attack any holes they can find in that swing. Lombard is a good hitter with a good plan at the plate, and at just 18 years old, he has plenty of time to iron things out and the Marlins are confident he will. Beyond the bat, the Miami native is an easy plus runner who can wreak havoc on the bases, and even if he slows down with added strength, he should continue to be a big asset in that regard. Lombard is also a very smooth defender at shortstop with excellent body control, smooth actions, and the ability to throw from multiple angles, making him a near-lock to stick at the toughest infield position. The arm is closer to average, but it should be no issue. Lombard projects for 30+ home runs annually with decent on-base percentages and plenty of stolen bases, making for an All Star shortstop ceiling albeit with some risk in the hit tool.

2-52: LHP Ethan Kleinschmit, Oregon State
Slot value: $1.89 million. Signing bonus: $1.89 million.
My rank: #100. MLB Pipeline: #69. ESPN: #72.
After swinging for the fences with Jacob Lombard, Miami went with a safer profile for their second pick in Ethan Kleinschmit. He began his career at Linn-Benton JC in Oregon, where he dominated West Coast JuCo competition as a freshman and earned the opportunity to transfer fifteen minutes down the road to Oregon State. He has been a staple in the Beavers rotation for the past two seasons, making 32 starts and going 17-7 with a 3.64 ERA and an impressive 210 strikeouts over 168 innings. Kleinschmit won't overpower hitters, sitting in the low 90's and touching 95 at peak, but the fastball has been effective against college hitters. His best pitch is a big diving slider with great depth that he'll throw to both lefties and righties, sending them away from lefties or down at the back foot of lefties. The Oregon native also throws a solid changeup that gives him a very effective third pitch, making for a very strong baseline for an innings eating starting pitcher. Kleinschmit has a very simple delivery and repeats it well, looking like he's just tossing it in there and maintaining his stuff deep into starts. That leads to above average command and helps him execute all three pitches consistently. The 6'3" lefty is plenty durable and projects as a prototypical #4 starter who could be one of the rare modern pitchers to eclipse two hundred innings every year. There is a lot of Patrick Corbin in this profile and Marlins fans may see him in Riverside sooner rather than later.

CBB-71: RHP Ryan Peterson, Sam Houston State
Slot value: $1.19 million. Signing bonus: $897,500 ($295,100 below slot value).
My rank: #104. MLB Pipeline: #86. ESPN: #154.
Heading back to the safe bet starting pitcher wellspring, Miami went a little under slot value to bring in Ryan Peterson. He hit campus in 2024 and turned 20 midway through his freshman season, where he served as an effective swingman, then joined the rotation full time as a sophomore but to middling results. He went undrafted and returned to Huntsville, where he took a big step forward as a junior by cutting his ERA almost in half and bumping his strikeout rate from 21.4% to 28.5%. Like Ethan Kleinschmit, he sits in the low 90's and touching 95 with his fastball albeit with ordinary life. While Kleinschmit makes his money on his slider, Peterson shows off a plus curveball with sharp, deep bite to dive under bats. He also turns over an average slider, though despite his two-breaking ball mix and advanced age, he doesn't have much of a changeup. The 6'3" righty has a sturdy frame and an athletic delivery with nice extension, putting a little extra hop on his pitches, and he fills up the strike zone with above average command. Despite carrying 215 pounds on that big 6'3" frame, he moves like a much smaller pitcher and his athleticism was certainly appealing to the Marlins. He's advanced with a good fastball and a pair of breaking balls, though having turned 22 back in April, he'll need to find a changeup relatively quickly as he moves up through the system. He'll look to join Kleinschmit in the back half of the Miami rotation in short order.

3-87: SS Cam Kozeal, Arkansas
Slot value: $929,700. Signing bonus: $772,500 ($157,200 below slot value).
My rank: #118. MLB Pipeline: #115. ESPN: #124.
Continuing with the savings, Miami targets its first college bat in Cam Kozeal here in the third round. Kozeal has long been a famous name, earning national exposure as a potential top five round pick out of high school in Omaha back in 2023. He made it to campus at Vanderbilt and earned significant playing time as a freshman, but transferred to Arkansas after one season. There, he blossomed as a hitter by slashing .326/.399/.630 with 35 home runs in 122 games and improved from the #170 prospect on my 2023 draft rankings to my #118 prospect in 2026. A bit undersized at 5'10", he has filled out really nicely in Fayetteville and now packs 205 pounds on his strong, stocky frame. As he has gotten stronger, his swing has gotten whippier and his barrel heavier, generating higher exit velocities that helped him jump from fringy to average or even a tick above average power. He has always been a scrappy hitter who works his at bats while attacking hittable pitches, making adjustments and consistently making things happen. However, he did struggle a bit in SEC play in 2026 (.234/.302/.508) and hasn't hit too much over two summers in the Cape Cod League either (.225/.330/.351), potentially creating some pause when projecting his offensive upside. He's likely a 10-15 home run type who can get on base at a reasonable clip, a profile that could potentially play every day near the bottom of the order. Defensively, he's a bit stretched at shortstop and may fit better at second base, where his fringy athleticism and arm strength will be less exposed. The Marlins love his style of play and believe he will swing his way to a regular big league role as an offensive-minded second baseman.

4-115: OF Wessley Roberson, Glynn Academy [GA]
Slot value: $677,500. Signing bonus: $1.2 million ($522,500 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: #175.
After going at or below slot with each of their first four picks, the Marlins began to unload those savings on outfielder Wessley Roberson, an exciting athlete out of the same Glynn Academy in South Georgia that produced Adam Wainwright in 2000. He'll sign away from an LSU commitment for $1.2 million, roughly the value of the Marlins' #71 pick, and instead head about six hours south to Miami on I-95. For now, Roberson stands out for his hitting ability. He is a plus hitter who has hit everywhere he has gone, running excellent contact rates and fiercely working at bats to force his way on base. Working from a wide setup, he unloads a quick, effective left handed swing that gets the barrel long through the zone and effectively follows through the baseball. At this point, the power is below average as he waits to grow into his skinny six foot frame, but the swing should help him tap potentially fringe-average power as he fills out a little more and help him reach double digit home run totals. He is an easy plus runner who torments opposing pitchers and plays a mean center field, where he should stick in pro ball and provide value. While he was not highly ranked on most public boards, ESPN being the only place I saw that put him in the top 200, the Marlins are in love with his hitting ability and see him flying through the minors quicker than most high schoolers.

5-147: LHP Trey Beard, Florida State
Slot value: $496,400. Signing bonus: $493,900 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #134. ESPN: #198.
Heading back to the Sunshine State, Miami continued its roll of high-floor starting pitchers with Trey Beard. A native of Dunedin just north of St. Petersburg, he began his college career at FAU where he made thirty starts over two seasons, including an excellent sophomore season in Boca in which he went 7-1 with a 3.14 ERA and a sharp 118/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 86 innings. That caught the attention of the Florida State staff, which brought him back up north to Tallahassee where he again found success with another 97 strikeouts in 68 innings. Like Ethan Kleinschmit and Ryan Peterson, Beard doesn't throw very hard, sitting in the low 90's and touching 94 at peak. The fastball is effective when he locates it, but it gets hit pretty consistently when it catches too much plate. He shows a big 12-6 curveball with nice depth and can also turn it over into a fringy slider, but his best pitch is a plus changeup with parachute action seemingly slowing down as it heads towards the plate. Beard works from a very high slot that puts tough angle on his pitches, accentuating the vertical action on his curveball and changeup especially. In order to remain a starter, he'll need to maintain his above average command to keep his fastball and slider effective multiple times through a lineup. Shifting to the bullpen would hopefully get his fastball closer to the mid 90's and allow him to lean a little more on his changeup, but the Marlins would prefer his breaking balls take a step forward to become real weapons.

8-235: 1B Rintaro Sasaki, Stanford
Slot value: $239,200. Signing bonus: $210,200 ($29,000 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
The Marlins are buying low on one of the most legendary bats in Japanese amatuer history. Rintaro Sasaki hit 140 home runs, 140 home runs (one hundred and forty), in four years at Hanamaki Higashi High School in northern Japan, where his father previously coached Shohei Ohtani. Personally, I had to Google it and verify it in several different places before I could even begin to believe the 140 number was real. I still can't quite fathom how a kid could hit 140 home runs in high school, no matter how many times I repeat it in this writeup. The top prospect (obviously) in the 2024 NPB draft in Japan, he instead made shockwaves by withdrawing to attend Stanford. He arrived in Palo Alto with great fanfare as Baseball America's Preseason National Freshman of the Year, but has unfortunately hit to middling results in his two years stateside. He did take a step forward from his freshman (.269/.377/.413, 7 HR, 19.9% K) to his sophomore (.262/.403/.549, 16 HR, 19.4% K) seasons, but ultimately fell short of the towering expectations placed on him. Still, he finds himself here in the eighth round with the chance to recapture his former luster under a pro development program. Listed at a Prince Fielder-esque 6'1", 270 pounds, he stands out for one unsurprising thing: power. Sasaki has Hulk-like strength that produces elite exit velocities, making for plus-plus raw power that produced some of the highest exit velocities at the MLB Draft Combine in June, where he was one of just three hitters to send a baseball over 450 feet. In high school, he could meet a pitch anywhere in the zone and, if he made even decent contact, send it deep into the trees, parking lots, or whatever they put behind high school fields in Japan. At Stanford, more advanced pitching stayed off his barrel more frequently and limited his game power to merely plus, though he seemed much more comfortable in 2026 than he did in 2025. The Marlins believe the difficult transition across continents as a teenager may have slowed his development, and that in their system he can continue trending in the right direction perhaps faster than other college bats. He's just 21 years old still and won't turn 22 until the start of the 2027 season. Sasaki will of course have to hit, as he's a bottom of the scale athlete that will be limited to first base at best. Had he not signed, he could have gone back to Japan to play for the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks.

9-265: 3B Nic Tolbert, Oktaha HS [OK]
Slot value: $210,200. Signing bonus: $597,500 ($387,300 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
With more savings to unload, Miami went for a sleeper signing in Nic Tolbert, a small town power bat from just outside of Muskogee, Oklahoma. Previously committed to Wichita State, he signed for late fourth round money (pick #128 value) here in the ninth round and will get to work pushing towards his lofty ceiling. Listed at 6'6", 210 pounds, he looks the part of a future big league slugger once he adds 20-30 pounds of good weight to that lanky frame. Unlike many tall sluggers, he has a direct left handed swing that helps him naturally tap his power rather than selling out and swinging through hittable pitches, providing a clear development path for the Marlins. He is untested against higher level arms and may take some time to work slowly up the minor league rungs, carrying plenty of risk as he makes the jump from Eastern Oklahoma to the pros. Defensively, Tolbert has seen time all over the field and comes to the Marlins as a third baseman, but could realistically land at any corner spot, infield or outfield. There is a wide array of outcomes here and a wide gap between his ceiling and his floor but if the Marlins think he'll hit, it's a worthwhile gamble for fourth round money. He is a little bit old for the class, turning 19 a few weeks after the draft.

12-355: RHP Bane Barker, Sandalwood HS [FL]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $497,500 ($347,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
With unspent bonus pool money remaining heading into the back half of the draft, Miami came back to the Sunshine State to bring in Bane Barker, an uncommitted high school arm who signed for fifth round money here in the twelfth round. A Jacksonville native who attended powerhouse Sandalwood High School on the east side of the city, he is a late bloomer and a major project whom the Marlins believe is only scratching the surface of his potential. The fastball only sat in the mid 80's a year ago, only scraping the upper 80's over the summer, but he started throwing harder in the fall and eventually started touching 92-93 at peak, though the average velocity remains closer to 90. He adds a nice downer curveball that can disappear when he spins it right in addition to a solid slider and a developing changeup. The 6'8" righty is extraordinarily projectable, with the Marlins likely to do significant work cleaning up his delivery as he grows into his extra large frame and develops physically. For now, the command is fringy but Miami will be patient as he acclimates to pro ball. Much like Nic Tolbert, there is a massive gap between his floor and his ceiling and both are equally unproven, so this is really a lottery ticket purchased with the extra bonus pool money.

20-595: C Joey Lawson, Bishop Verot HS [FL]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $196,500 ($46,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
Miami finished things off with a surprising signing, grabbing one last Sunshine Stater in Joey Lawson. A product of Bishop Verot High School in Fort Myers, he seemed a long shot to sign away from a UNC commitment but Miami got it done as one of their final signings of the class and they didn't break the bank either. Lawson was a decorated two-way player who actually had significantly more interest as a pitching prospect, where his fastball reached 94 and his curveball looked like a hammer strikeout pitch. To me, he looked more natural on the mound as well, but Miami believes in the bat and will take the time to develop him that way. He's physically developed at 6'2", 215 pounds, showing natural power from the right side and creating plenty of leverage with his swing path. He's a heady ballplayer who looks to be reasonably advanced as a hitter, giving him a good shot to develop into an all-around threat at the plate. Lawson mostly played first base at Bishop Verot when he wasn't pitching, but Miami looks like they're going to try him out behind the plate. His short arm action on the mound looks conducive to the position and his sturdy frame appears a fit as well, making for an interesting experiment. Sticking behind the plate would of course buy more slack for the bat to develop and it's a nice bargain for just under $200,000. Lawson is a bit old for the class, having turned 19 a few weeks before the draft. If hitting doesn't work out, he can always fall back on pitching.

Saturday, November 8, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Miami Marlins

Full list of draftees

The Marlins are not usually a team to go college bat early, with Aiva Arquette representing just the sixth time in franchise history dating back to 1992 that they've taken one with their first pick. If you take the past 29 drafts, he's only the fourth, and the last three (Colin Moran, JJ Bleday, Jacob Berry) have not quite met expectations. Despite this, Miami started off the draft with six straight college bats and overall did not draft a single high school player, relatively out of character for them. I really like this class they put together, especially if they're right about ninth rounder Kaiden Wilson that he hasn't yet scratched the surface of his potential. Miami focused on power early, with five of their initial six college bats showing above average or better raw exit velocities and second rounder Brandon Compton in particular showing some of the best raw power in the entire class. There is a uniquely Florida feel to this class as well, as six of Miami's picks hail from the Sunshine State (including five in a row from rounds 3-7, three Florida State Seminoles, and two former Stoneman Douglas Eagles).
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-7: SS Aiva Arquette, Oregon State
Slot value: $7.15 million. Signing bonus: $7.15 million.
My rank: #5. MLB Pipeline: #6. Baseball America: #5.
It is hard not to love this pick for the Marlins, who acquired for themselves arguably the best all-around college position player in the entire draft. Aiva Arquette represents an excellent choice if they're going to break their college bat dry spell. He was a highly regarded prep who had interest in the top few rounds, but made it to campus at Washington where he turned in a star 2024 season. When head coach Jason Kelly split for College Station to become the new pitching coach at Texas A&M, Arquette headed south to Oregon State and exploded for a huge 2025, slashing .354/.461/.654 with 19 home runs while managing OSU's grueling travel-heavy schedule. Listed at 6'5", 220 pounds, he is an imposing presence in the box but brings with him the strong athleticism and feel for the game of a much smaller player. There is plus power in the tank that he has gotten to in games, coming from a leveraged right handed swing that gets the ball up in the air with authority. He doesn't have to sell out for home runs and could still hit 25-30 annually at peak, if not more. The swing has gotten a bit swoopy at times, but it looked more consistent in 2025 and his excellent hand-eye coordination and feel for the barrel help him meet the ball on time even when he doesn't get long through the zone. He has also improved his approach from relatively aggressive to more average, helping him consistently find better pitches to hit and enabling that power to come forth. Arquette performed well last summer in the elite Cape Cod League as well, hitting .291/.357/.437 and impressing scouts by improving throughout the summer. In all, this is a big league bat that will hit in the middle of the order. While the hit tool is closer to average than plus, it's still plenty enough to get to his prodigious power. On the other side of the ball, Arquette impressed scouts with the progress he has made at shortstop, now looking like he can stick at the position long term despite his size. The Honolulu native has impressive body control, improving glovework, and the plus arm to become an average big league shortstop. He is an average runner that may be forced to third base if he slows down at all, but for now that doesn't appear to be an issue. An everyday shortstop that can flirt with 30 home run totals and get on base at a reasonable clip is a cornerstone player, and Miami thinks they've gotten that in Arquette.

CBA-43: OF Cam Cannarella, Clemson
Slot value: $2.28 million. Signing bonus: $2.28 million.
My rank: #31. MLB Pipeline: #36. Baseball America: #27.
This is a really exciting pick outside the top 40. Cam Cannarella burst onto the scene as a Clemson freshman in 2023, hitting .388 with 24 stolen bases and earning first team freshman All-American honors from numerous outlets. A shoulder injury as a sophomore in 2024 slowed him somewhat, though he did set a career high with eleven home runs, then entered his junior season as a potential top ten overall pick. A slump to start the season dashed those hopes a bit, but he finished red hot on a 22 game hitting streak that included a trio of four hit games and a separate trio of three hit games. While Clemson ultimately did not survive their home regional, it was not Cannarella's fault as he went 8-14 (.571 AVG) with a pair of home runs against a red hot USC Upstate, West Virginia, and Kentucky. The South Carolina native is much smaller than his first round counterpart at a listed 6', 185 pounds, his skinny frame not lending itselt to much power. He's more of a slasher anyways so he's not looking to tap his below average power much, but he is an excellent contact hitter who rarely expands the zone and forces pitchers to come to him. With an accurate barrel that helps him get to balls all over the zone while adjusting effectively to offspeed stuff, he is well equipped to handle major league pitching and still make the most out of pitches he gets fooled on. On-base percentage will be his strength (he finished three years at Clemson with an excellent .453 OBP across 178 games), and he'll have to really turn on the ball to get it over the fence with wood. Additionally, Cannarella is a plus runner with excellent instincts in the outfield, helping him catch everything in his zip code while making some incredible plays up against the wall, though he doesn't have much of an arm. He's a sparkplug with infectious energy on both sides of the ball, inspiring his teammates to rally behind him as he plays as hard as anybody. The profile reminds me a lot of Brewers outfielder Sal Frelick, though Cannarella has the benefit of being a few inches taller.

2-46: OF Brandon Compton, Arizona State
Slot value: $2.13 million. Signing bonus: $2 million ($128,800 below slot value).
My rank: #45. MLB Pipeline: #47. Baseball America: #41.
Brandon Compton is another very exciting pick, albeit with the polar opposite profile to Cam Cannarella. He did not play as a true freshman, then burst onto the scene by hitting .354/.427/.661 with 14 home runs as a redshirt freshman in 2024. Expectations were high as he pushed himself into the first round conversation for 2025, but the stat line (.271/.379/.486, 9 HR) couldn't quite live up to what he did in 2024. However, the under the hood numbers were excellent and represented a far better player than the stat line showed, and teams were still lining up to grab him in the second round. He has some of the most impressive raw power in the class, recording 90th percentile exit velocities around 110 MPH and putting on one of the most jaw-dropping MLB Draft Combine batting practices in the event's history. It's a gorgeous, compact left handed swing combined with tons of strength from a sturdy 6'1", 225 pound frame that sends the ball rocketing off the bat in the air with authority. He cut his strikeout rate from 25.5% as a freshman to 21.1% as a sophomore, still high but more palatable. There will always be swing and miss in Compton's game, though a strong run through the Cape Cod League (.331/.414/.489, just 16.6% strikeout rate) lends hope that it shouldn't be a dealbreaker in pro ball. Pressure will be on his surface numbers to bounce back in pro ball though because his defensive tools are all fringy at best, leaving left field as the most likely landing place. He won't provide much value on that side of the ball. That said, if he can just made contact at a reasonable rate, the power is so impressive that he could threaten for 30+ home run seasons annually at peak.

3-78: OF Max Williams, Florida State
Slot value: $1.04 million. Signing bonus: $897,500 ($146,200 below slot value).
My rank: #70. MLB Pipeline: #81. Baseball America: #92.
The first of many Floridians in this class for the Marlins, Max Williams' hometown is variously listed as Ormond Beach (just north of Daytona) or Fleming Island (south of Jacksonville) and he attended Clay High School in Green Cove Springs (also south of Jacksonville). Williams began his career at Alabama, hitting well in a part-time role before transferring back home to Florida State and putting up two excellent seasons. He has a bit of an awkward setup at the plate, using a spread out stance and a choppy swing that gashes at the ball more than anything else. It works, though, as his twitchy athleticism and innate strength helps him blast the ball in the air with authority, showing plus power in games that helped him crush 33 home runs over 119 games in two seasons in Tallahassee. In fact, the ball jumps off his bat so spectacularly (similar to Brandon Compton) that mechanical tweaks could help him unlock 30 homer power in the big leagues. Williams is very aggressive at the plate, limiting his walks, but he fights his way through at bats and works pitchers better than most ultra-aggressive hitters. He also shows very solid bat to ball to make up for the tendency to chase out of the zone, keeping the strikeout rates reasonable (and dropping from 21.6% in 2024 to 16.1% in 2025). In the outfield, his above average speed gives him a shot to play center field if he can refine his reads and routes a little bit, but if Cam Cannarella hits enough to claim that spot, his above average arm will help him profile very well in either corner outfield spot. To top it off, Williams is very young for a college junior, not turning 21 until a month after the draft and clocking in nearly a full year younger than other college bats the Marlins took to start this draft.

4-108: SS Drew Faurot, Florida State
Slot value: $708,300. Signing bonus: $531,225 ($177,075 below slot value).
My rank: #147. MLB Pipeline: #158. Baseball America: #248.
Two picks, two North Florida natives who transferred into Florida State. Drew Faurot was a well-known prep prospect who pushed himself up draft boards with a strong spring at Florida State University High School in Tallahassee, but spurned offers to head to UCF. After blasting fifteen home runs as a true freshman, he transferred back to his hometown to play for FSU. While his numbers took a step back as a sophomore, he re-established himself as a junior in 2025 to push back into roughly the same draft range where he had been in high school. Faurot has huge bat speed that gives him above average raw power and helped him hit sixteen home runs in 2025, producing strong batted ball data. He does a great job getting his arms extended to produce that power, though in turn the swing can get long and he can swing and miss in the zone a bit. With a moderately aggressive approach, there are some strikeout questions, though his 18.3% K rate in 2025 represented a career-best and he showed well against strong pitching on the Cape last summer (.263/.342/.414). A switch hitter that performs better from the right side, there are some who would like to see him focus just on that side of the plate. Faurot has a solid glove and can handle any position on the infield, though he's just a little bit stretched at shortstop and figures to profile at second base in the long run. This could become a utility infield profile with the thump to club 15-20 home runs annually if he gets enough at bats to get there, or if the hit tool translates then he could find himself as an every day second baseman.

5-139: 1B Chris Arroyo, Virginia
Slot value: $523,900. Signing bonus: $521,400 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #134. MLB Pipeline: #193. Baseball America: #110.
Chris Arroyo brings the Marlins a third straight Floridian. Born and initially raised in Puerto Rico, he attended high school at powerhouse Stoneman Douglas in the South Florida suburb of Coral Springs alongside seventh rounder Jake Clemente. Beginning his college career at Florida with Clemente, he pitched a little but ultimately spent most of the season on the bench. Transferring to Pasco Hernando State, he exploded as one of the best JuCo hitters in the country while also showing well on the mound, earning a two-way opportunity at UVA. He made it onto the mound for 12.2 innings in Charlottesville, but ultimately shined with the bat where he served as the team's regular first baseman. Miami will be drafting him as a hitter only. Arroyo shows sneaky plus raw power, though it plays closer to above average with a more linear swing geared for all fields line drive contact. While he's an aggressive hitter, he still controls the zone well by fighting off tough pitches and battling deep into counts, ultimately leading to a low 13.8% strikeout rate in 2025. It's the kind of offensive profile that could improve dramatically in pro ball, especially as he focuses on hitting only. Additionally, like Max Williams he is extremely young for the class and didn't turn 21 until September, making him more than a year younger than Cam Cannarella. That gives Miami more time to fine tune the approach. Defensively limited to first base now that he's no longer pitching, the pressure will be on his bat and especially the power to start showing up more frequently. This is an interesting profile that gives the Marlins a lot to work with and could become a potential 20+ home run bat annually.

6-168: LHP Joey Volini, Florida State
Slot value: $397,000. Signing bonus: $297,750 ($99,250 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #216. Baseball America: #303.
Continuing to roll with the Floridians, Miami picked up a third Florida State Seminole transfer in four picks. Joey Volini grew up in Tampa and played at powerhouse Jesuit High School alongside future Seminole and A's #11 overall pick Jamie Arnold, then began his career locally at USF where he showed well in sporadic action. Joining Drew Faurot in transferring to Florida State in 2025, Volini started off the season with a bang by dominating virtually every opponent early in the season. By the end of March, he was 7-0 with a 1.25 ERA and a 63/9 strikeout to walk ratio across 43.1 innings. After getting roughed up by Wake Forest in April, his numbers came back to earth a little bit over his next several starts, but the prospect was established. Volini does not throw particularly hard, sitting around 90 and only really topping out around 93 at peak, but he makes up for it with the rest of the profile. He can really spin a breaking ball, showing excellent finish on his deep curveball while tightening it up for a solid slider as well, while his deceptive changeup gives him a fourth big league pitch. Volini trusts all four pitches and can throw them in any count, also showing the ability to command everything to both sides of the plate. His strong feel for pitching helps him keep hitters off balance, while his huge frame (6'4", 245 pounds) gives the indication that he'll be durable going forward. With above average command, an approach that keeps pitch counts down, and that big frame, he has a very good shot to become a back-end starter. In order to do that, he'll need to find another tick or two on the fastball so 89 over the plate doesn't get crushed. As a senior sign, he'll turn 23 in December but has the profile to move quickly.

7-198: RHP Jake Clemente, Florida
Slot value: $309,400. Signing bonus: $500,000 ($190,600 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #189. Baseball America: #204.
The final in our run of five straight Floridians, Jake Clemente snuck up draft boards and has a chance to outplay many of his pre-draft projections. A native of Coral Springs, Clemente was teammates with fifth rounder Chris Arroyo at Stoneman Douglas High School and the two were part of the same incoming freshman class at Florida prior to the 2023 season. Clemente missed the entire season with shoulder problems, then when Arroyo transferred out, he took a regular role in the bullpen in 2024. While his transition to the rotation in 2025 was short-lived, he thrived upon becoming the Gators' closer and from April onwards held a 1.45 ERA and a 35.4% strikeout rate across 31 innings. Clemente is a power arm, sitting in the mid 90's as a starter and touching as high as 99 in relief with sink to generate ground ball contact down and miss bats up. The velocity is the primary draw, as his mid to upper 80's power slider can lack finish at times and his firm changeup is a tertiary pitch. He added a curveball in 2025 that seems to have better finish and might be his better breaking ball going forward. The 6'3" righty is plenty physical enough to start with an athletic delivery and strong frame, but fringy command coming from very long arm action as well as a lack of a putaway secondary might make a transition to the rotation difficult. Given that Miami gave him fifth round money to sign here in the seventh round, they may have some hopes of trying him in the rotation once again once they have a chance to stretch him out in spring training. Regardless, the floor here is that of a power reliever who can approach triple digits out of the bullpen, and if they can sharpen one of the secondaries, that's a big league reliever.

9-258: LHP Kaiden Wilson, Texas A&M
Slot value: $209,600. Signing bonus: $697,500 ($487,900 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
This one is a pure projection play for Miami. Kaiden Wilson has very little track record and went unranked on most major public draft boards, but signed for fourth round money here in the ninth round. Wilson has just 33.1 innings under his belt with an ugly 6.21 ERA, having never started a game nor completed three innings in a single outing for the Aggies, but Miami believes in the upside. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and plays up with riding and cutting action from a high slot, making for a relatively unique fastball shape that has proven very difficult to square up. He has a sharp mid 80's slider with tight sweep to miss bats, while his changeup is a tertiary pitch at this point. Wilson has struggled with command and his stuff can play down when he falls behind in the count and/or leaves the ball over the plate, precluding Texas A&M from stretching him out as a starter. Given the hefty investment, I'd expect the Marlins to do just that in spring training in 2026, looking to fine tune the command a bit and bring along his changeup. The 6'2" lefty is plenty physical and looks durable enough to handle the move so long as the command and secondaries come along. It's very interesting stuff from the left side that will absolutely play against major league hitters so long as he can get himself up to the Show.

15-438: 3B Josh Hogue, North Carolina State
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
NC State infielders out of Florida have a pretty good track record, with two famous examples including Trea Turner (Lake Worth) and Tommy White (St. Pete Beach). Josh Hogue, a native of North Palm Beach who played his high school ball at Palm Beach Gardens High School, is hoping to be the next, though he's not technically an infielder yet. Hogue initially played at Santa Fe JC in Gainesville, then transferred to NC State where he hit .314 as a sophomore then nearly tripled his home run output while hitting .321 as a junior in 2025. Hogue is a very solid all around hitter, showing above average bat to ball ability and a keen eye to pick up offspeed stuff out of the hand. There's some pop in the bat too, as he can let loose when he gets a pitch he likes and drive it in the air to the pull side. He jumped from ten extra base hits and a .450 slugging percentage in 2024 to 29 extra base hits and a .562 slugging percentage in 2025, showing the ability more and more often to turn on the ball without sacrificing contact. Hogue played exclusively outfield in Raleigh and did the same during his brief pro debut with Low A Jupiter (ironically less than a fifteen minute drive from his high school), where he would be limited to a corner spot, but Miami did draft him as a third baseman and could give him a shot on the dirt next year. Overall, Hogue profiles as a bench option who can swing it a bit from the left side.

Tuesday, September 3, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Miami Marlins

Full list of draftees

Last year, the Marlins gave Oregon prep pitcher Noble Meyer about a million dollars below slot value with their first pick, then handed Massachusetts prep pitcher Thomas White over $1.5 million above slot value to sign with their second. Miami did something very similar this year with a pair of prep bats, handing PJ Morlando more than a million below slot value with their first pick and Carter Johnson more than a million above slot value with their second. If you go by bonuses versus slot value, they essentially traded their #16 and #56 picks for the #25 and #33 picks instead. Clearly, they saw less separation between the top prospects in both draft classes and wanted two shots at big names versus one at a premium name. This year, they targeted mostly bats overall, mostly looking at guys with either strong bat to ball or strong plate discipline. I'm personally pretty interested in the names they pulled together, and I think eighth rounder Jacob Jenkins-Cowart has a chance to be a real steal if they can get his development right.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-16: OF PJ Morlando, Summerville HS [SC] {video}
Slot value: $4.7 million. Signing bonus: $3.4 million ($1.3 million below slot value).
My rank: #38. MLB Pipeline: #43. Baseball America: #52.
The Marlins started this draft off with a bit of a surprising pick, grabbing PJ Morlando for a massive under slot bonus that paid him just under the slot value for the #25 pick here at pick #16, signing him away from a South Carolina commitment in the process. Morlando has long been a famous name in this class, having earned first round buzz for his exploits on the summer showcase circuits for years now. He entered the spring jockeying with Konnor Griffin for the title of the best prep bat in the country, ranking as high as #10 on my pre-season boards. His spring turned out to be fairly unremarkable, though, and his stock dropped accordingly with some outlets letting him fall out of the top fifty. The Marlins still believe in Morlando's bat, and boy does he give them good reason. He has massive raw power and puts on arguably the most impressive batting practice of any high schooler in the country. It comes from a very strong, mature 6'3" frame that effortlessly generates great leverage. However, he hasn't always tapped that power consistently in games and may have improvements to make in terms of barrel accuracy. Meanwhile, he has an extremely disciplined approach at the plate that has helped him handle all kinds of high level pitching, especially premium velocity. Morlando uses the entire field effectively and should be one of the most pro-ready bats in the prep class. How much of his prodigious raw power the Marlins can unlock in games will determine how far he goes as a hitter. Meanwhile, the Charleston-area product has played all over the field, but his fringy speed likely limits him to a corner outfield spot or first base, which would put more pressure on the power to show up. He's extremely old for the class, having turned 19 in May, but he seems to have a great head on his shoulders and brings maturity beyond his years to the game. It may be tempting to compare this pick to Jacob Berry, whom the Marlins drafted sixth overall in 2022 and which has not looked good in hindsight, but I'd caution against that. Berry, like Morlando, was a below average athlete with a great combination of power, contact, and discipline. But Berry's power came from excellent feel for the barrel and the ability to loft the ball with authority, which masked his more ordinary raw exit velocities and caused his power to play down with wood. Morlando, meanwhile, shows much better raw exit velocities but has had issues making that optimal contact in games. You weren't going to get Berry hitting the ball harder, but you might be able to tweak Morlando's approach to access the power he already has. He grounded out in his first at bat at Low A Jupiter but shortly after with a lumbar stress reaction.

2-56: SS Carter Johnson, Oxford HS [AL] {video}
Slot value: $1.6 million. Signing bonus: $2.8 million ($1.2 million above slot value).
My rank: #43. MLB Pipeline: #40. Baseball America: #37.
After saving $1.3 million on PJ Morlando, the Marlins spent nearly all of their savings on pulling second rounder Carter Johnson away from an Alabama commitment, with his $2.8 million bonus representing just over the slot value for the #33 pick here at #56. While there isn't a true carrying tool here with Johnson, you'd be hard pressed to find any weaknesses in his profile either. He has a long track record of hitting against top showcase competition with a natural, whippy left handed swing that produces hard line drives to all fields. Meanwhile, scouts are split on his future power projection but the Marlins would appear to be bullish. Johnson is skinny at 6'2", with twitchy hands, nice leverage, and strong feel for the barrel to help him produce fringe-average power for now. I see him growing into average power, but the frame is fairly skinny and I think he'll always be hit over power. The Alabama native is also a smooth defender at shortstop that gets rid of the ball quickly and accurately, giving him a chance to stick there long term. He's more of an average runner, though, so there is a chance he gets pushed off to second or third by a springier, more explosive defender. Johnson's well-rounded profile could have him moving quickly through the minors, and once in the majors he could project for 15-20 home runs per season with high on-base percentages at peak. The Marlins assigned him aggressively to Low A Jupiter, where he is hitting .237/.283/.301 with one home run and a 34/5 strikeout to walk ratio through 23 games against much older competition.

CBB-70: RHP Aiden May, Oregon State {video}
Slot value: $1.14 million. Signing bonus: $900,000 ($239,100 below slot value).
My rank: #73. MLB Pipeline: #82. Baseball America: #116.
This pick may seem a bit inconspicuous after two highly touted preps, but Aiden May is a very interesting prospect in his own right. He began his career at Pima JC in Arizona, transferred to Arizona for his sophomore season, then jumped to Oregon State for his junior year and pitched extremely well. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, touching 97 at peak, with running action. The overall ordinary life makes the pitch play down, making it a fringe-average pitch for now. He can sink or cut it when needed, though those variations are just average as well. His slider, though, steals the show. He leaned heavily on it in 2024, throwing it more than his fastball, getting tremendous sweep on it to create some ugly swings and miss a ton of bats. That pitch alone could make him a major leaguer. He's working his changeup in more to good results, giving him a second solid offspeed offering. May is a good athlete with a loose delivery and a low three quarters slot that helps him create a low release point, adding some intrigue to the east-west profile here. He also repeats his delivery well and throws a lot of strikes, both with his fastball and with his slider, giving him at least average command going forward. The Marlins are buying into the show-stopping slider, but how far he goes as a starter will depend on finding more success with his fastball. The Marlins may toy with the shape and/or location to keep it off more barrels, looking to better neutralize left handed hitters. At minimum, the sweeper is so effective that he'll have a bullpen spot waiting for him in Miami should starting not work out.

3-92: 2B Gage Miller, Alabama {video}
Slot value: $800,800. Signing bonus: $800,800.
My rank: #93. MLB Pipeline: #68. Baseball America: #111.
Though he started his career as an unheralded recruit at Bishop State JC in Mobile, Gage Miller came out of nowhere upon transferring to Alabama in 2024 to put up one of the best seasons in the SEC, even finding his name on the Golden Spikes Midseason Watch List. For good reason, too – he finished with 21 home runs and a .382/.470/.721 line in 58 games for the Tide. I mentioned that the PJ Morlando pick was very different from the Jacob Berry pick, but this one is much more similar. Given that it's a third round pick and not a sixth overall pick, it's much more reasonable. Miller, like Berry, produces more game power than raw power. The raw power, in fact, is fringy at best, but he is so adept at finding the barrel and driving the ball in the air that it plays to above average power in games. It's a lightning quick right handed swing with zero wasted movement, helping him make plenty of contact both inside and outside the zone and walk (10.1%) more than he struck out (9.0%) in 2024. There's some chase in the profile, especially against changeups, but it's not a lot and the overall approach is pretty strong. Miller played third base at Alabama but the Marlins drafted him as a second baseman, where his fringy defensive tools might be better hidden. There's a good chance he gets pushed further down the defensive spectrum to first base or left field, where the pressure would really mount on his bat, but the upside is a bat-first second baseman who can hit close to 20 home runs per season with relatively high batting averages. He's moving quickly already, slashing .264/.337/.322 with a 19/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 games between Low A Jupiter and High A Beloit.

4-122: SS Fenwick Trimble, James Madison {video}
Slot value: $589,000. Signing bonus: $550,000 ($39,000 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #201.
The Marlins got an interesting data darling in Fenwick Trimble, who also has a tremendous baseball name. He's a three year starter and performer at JMU, including having hit .356/.452/.633 with 27 home runs in 117 games over the past two seasons combined. Perhaps his most impressive swing came in his very first at bat of the 2024 season when he knocked a three run home run off eventual White Sox fifth overall pick Hagen Smith, who would allow just one more run in his next five starts combined. Trimble indeed has a very heavy barrel that produces above average raw power, mostly translating into doubles (he has 43 of them over the past two seasons) because his approach is geared towards hard line drives to all fields. He also makes a ton of contact and walked (10.2%) more than he struck out (8.1%) in 2024, owing to a very accurate barrel. In fact, out of 145 college hitters on the Baseball America 500, only one was able to best both his 107.1 MPH 90th percentile exit velocity and his 85.5% contact rate – Lehigh's Rafe Perich, now a Ranger. Now Trimble does have a bit of a tendency to chase, which may hurt him as he makes the jump from Sun Belt to pro pitching. He hit just .231/.279/.347 in 46 games on the Cape last summer, salvaged a bit by a hot run through the playoffs. This may be a case where the Virginia Beach product will have to choose between a power-oriented or contact-oriented approach. Interestingly, the Marlins drafted Trimble as a shortstop despite the fact that he played exclusively outfield at JMU – first the corners, then center field in 2024. Trimble has some speed and has refined his glove out there, so even if he moves back to a corner, he'll be a solid defender and likely net-positive. To this point, he has also not appeared on the infield in the minors. It will be interesting to see how the Marlins develop him as a hitter, and so far he's slashing .255/.300/.340 with eight stolen bases and a 15/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games at Low A Jupiter.

5-155: RHP Grant Shepardson, Mountain Vista HS [CO] {video}
Slot value: $427,000. Signing bonus: $897,500 ($470,500 above slot value).
My rank: #101. MLB Pipeline: #141. Baseball America: #193.
The Marlins doubled the slot value here in the fifth round to give Grant Shepardson third round money, just over the slot value for the #85 pick, to sign away from a San Francisco commitment. Personally, I'm a big fan of Shepardson. He already sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can touch 98 with riding action, and more is likely coming. He flashes plus with his slider, though the pitch is inconsistent and he can get around it at times, causing it to flatten out, or overcorrect and get too vertical on the pitch. For now, those two pitches are the main show, as the changeup is more of a distant third right now. The 6'1" righty is very athletic on the mound with nice lower half extension and a quick arm, helping him project for additional velocity while also making his stuff jump on hitters. The command is improving, too, giving him a really well-rounded profile. If Shepardson can bring his changeup along and get a little more consistent with his slider, he has a chance to be a real impact starting pitcher in Miami. Between the velocity, ability to spin, athleticism, and trajectory, I'm personally bought in.

6-184: SS Payton Green, Georgia Tech {video}
Slot value: $331,300. Signing bonus: $328,800 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #170. MLB Pipeline: #169. Baseball America: #196.
Payton Green has been on scouts' radars for a while now. A top prep prospect out of Pro5 Academy in the Raleigh-Durham area, he stayed home to attend NC State and held down a starting role for two years. In 2024, he hopped over to Georgia Tech and took a small step forward, hitting .308/.407/.577 with twelve home runs in 55 games. Green, like second rounder Carter Johnson, does a lot well on the diamond and lacks a standout tool, though unlike Johnson he's probably a tad more power over hit. Standing 6'3", he shows average power in games with a smooth right handed swing. He'll chase power at times, getting aggressive and trying to turn on the ball and unraveling his at bats in the process, but he's at his best when he lets that power come naturally. Green is an aggressive hitter who can chase out of the zone but makes pretty solid contact overall, so if the Marlins can refine his approach a little bit, there's sneaky offensive upside here. There's projection remaining on his frame as well, which could help him grow into above average power in time. He has played all over the infield and while he probably doesn't profile as a shortstop in pro ball, he can be adequate there if needed and should make a solid third baseman in the long run. Green hasn't found his footing at the plate yet, slashing .150/.314/.150 with a 13/9 strikeout to walk ratio through 15 games at Low A Jupiter.

7-214: RHP Nick Brink, Portland {video}
Slot value: $259,600. Signing bonus: $195,000 ($64,600 below slot value).
My rank: #211. MLB Pipeline: #166. Baseball America: #204.
It was a down year for high-end senior signs, but the Marlins picked up one of the better ones in Nick Brink. He spent four years at the University of Portland, missing the 2022 season with Tommy John surgery but turning into a true ace for the Pilots over the past two seasons. The fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96 with sink, making for an average pitch, and he brings a full arsenal of secondaries. His changeup is his best pitch, tumbling out of his hand to confound hitters. He throws both a curveball and a slider, showing more depth than power as they project more as strike stealers than true bat missers in pro ball. Everything plays up because Brink has plus command and shows great feel to sequence and execute all four pitches, continually keeping hitters off balance and putting each pitch in competitive locations to help them play at their best. That polish will come in handy given his age, as he's set to turn 23 before the end of the pro season, and he'll look to move quickly through the system. He has the upside of a back-end starter with a fallback as a long reliever whose stuff could tick up in shorter stints. He's also a strong student who had interest from Ivy League schools out of high school but turned them down to stay home in Portland, a decision that has certainly paid off in numerous ways.

8-244: 1B Jacob Jenkins-Cowart, East Carolina {video}
Slot value: $211,600. Signing bonus: $211,600.
My rank: #113. MLB Pipeline: #228. Baseball America: #113.
To me, this is one of the single best value picks of the draft. I had Jacob Jenkins-Cowart ranked in the fourth round range, and they got him here in the eighth without going above slot value. Sure, the profile is far from perfect, but there is enough in there for me to be very interested. Jenkins-Cowart hit the ground running at ECU in 2022, where he was named a Freshman All-American by D1Baseball after hitting .330/.367/.549 with 13 home runs and starting nearly every game. He failed to build on that in 2023, then his power took some time to show up in 2024 until the ran into a bit of a home run binge late in the season. The Greensboro native is a a lanky 6'6" and stands out for that long, projectable frame. Those long arms give him above average power for now, though tweaks to his approach could help him tap that power more in games as he learns to select better pitches he can turn on and elevate. Jenkins-Cowart is an aggressive hitter who has never walked more than 7.5% of the time in any season, leading to more weak contact than you'd like. However, I'm intrigued by his strong bat to ball ability, running roughly an 80% contact rate despite the propensity to chase bad pitches, and it's even more impressive given his long levers that cause many lanky hitters to swing through hittable pitches. That body control could help him really pull things together with more refinement to his approach, though unfortunately the Marlins are not known for strong hitting development. Meanwhile, JJC is a fringy runner who played corner outfield at ECU, and while the Marlins drafted him as a first baseman, he's stuck in right field so far as a pro. I see him continuing as a corner outfielder long term but if he slows down further as he fills out and ages, he could be forced to first base. Either way, the bat is the draw here with the potential for 15-20 home runs per season, perhaps more if they get the development right, alongside average on-base percentages. So far, he's slashing .221/.284/.326 with one home run and a 28/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games for Low A Jupiter.

13-394: SS Cody Schrier, UCLA {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: #217. MLB Pipeline: #138. Baseball America: #130.
Cody Schrier is a bit of a post-hype prospect whom the Marlins are hoping to buy into at the right time. He was among the best prep prospects in California in 2021, ranking #55 on my overall draft board that year but reaching campus at UCLA instead. There he made an immediate impact, earning first team freshman all-American honors at numerous publications and was one of 55 players nationally selected to the pre-season Golden Spikes watchlist before his sophomore year. Unfortunately, Schrier plateaued from there and has seen his batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage all drop in each year in Westwood, beginning at .298/.383/.492 as a freshman and ending at .242/.320/.354 as a junior. Schrier, like a few other infielders in this Marlins draft class, is a jack of all trades, master of none. He has a quick right handed swing and nice strength in his 6'1" frame, giving him average power to the pull side when he does look to turn on the ball. That power plays down a bit in games though and he had just ten extra base hits in 2024, a career-low. Schrier shows controlled aggression at the plate, chasing at a very high rate but still recognizing pitches well and showing the ability to handle premium offspeed stuff. Still, he does swing and miss more than you'd like and projects as a fringe-average hitter. The Marlins hope they can use his pitch recognition ability to tweak his approach and get him hunting better pitches to hit. Meanwhile, the Southern California native does show very strong feel for the infield can handle shortstop in a pinch, though his average speed and arm will likely push him to second base or third base, where he could be above average. Schrier is a heady, accomplished ballplayer with a high baseball IQ who projects as a utility infielder at best.

Monday, September 4, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Miami Marlins

Full list of draftees

As usual, the Marlins went heavy on the pitching in this class, taking thirteen pitchers in their first seventeen picks. You could argue they landed to land the top two high school pitchers in the entire class with their first two picks, and the massive over slot bonus they gave Thomas White meant that they had to spend the rest of the draft playing catchup with their bonus pool. The profiles of those they drafted were pretty diverse, even among pitchers between some high slot/high ride guys and other lower slot/run/sink arms. Overall, I think it's a decent class, not my favorite but if you can land the two best high school pitchers in the country, it's hard to argue. I will say, I find it impressive that they managed to make 21 picks and not come away with a single Floridian given how much talent the Sunshine State pumps into the pro pipeline.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-10: RHP Noble Meyer, Jesuit HS [OR] {video}
Slot value: $5.48 million. Signing bonus: $4.5 million ($975,300 below slot value).
My rank: #11. MLB Pipeline: #8. Baseball America: #7. Prospects Live: #11.
The Marlins started off their draft with a bang, grabbing the consensus best high school pitcher in the class and diverting him away from an Oregon commitment for nearly a million dollars below slot to boot (close to the value of the #15 pick). Meyer was already considered the top prep pitching prospect in the class coming into the season, and he only solidified that with an exceptional spring. His fastball comfortably sits in the low to mid 90's but reached triple digits this spring, coming in with plenty of running action. His hard, sweeping slider looks like a plus pitch more often than not, and his changeup looks like it should become an above average pitch in time with more consistency. Coming in from a low three quarters slot, he provides a tougher look for hitters and repeats his delivery very well, with above average command not often seen from preps touching triple digits. The 6'5" righty is also extremely projectable and could be sitting comfortably in the mid 90's sooner rather than later, with true ace upside. It's hard to poke holes in Meyer's profile aside from the fact that he's a high school righthanded pitcher, an inherently risky profile. So far, he has a 4.09 ERA and a 15/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 11 innings between the Florida Complex League and Low A Jupiter.

CBA-35: LHP Thomas White, Philips HS [MA] {video}
Slot value: $2.42 million. Signing bonus: $4.1 million ($1.68 million above slot value).
My rank: #29. MLB Pipeline: #24. Baseball America: #19. Prospects Live: #26.
The Marlins used their savings on Noble Meyer, then about $700,000 more, to sign Thomas White away from a Vanderbilt commitment with money that fit between the 17th and 18th pick slot values. Many evaluators would tell you the Marlins got the two best high school pitchers in the country, and I'd have to agree with White (#29) ranking just ahead of Charlee Soto (#30) on my board. There's a lot for him to work on, but even more to like already. He sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 with his fastball, up a tick from last summer, with some nice life. His curveball has begun to step forward with slurvy break, while he's added a slider recently as well. At this point, his best offspeed pitch is an above average changeup that's extremely advanced for a high school pitcher, and together it's already a big league arsenal. White is extremely projectable with a smooth, easy delivery, so it's easy to envision even more velocity coming in the future. At this point, he's still growing into his 6'5" frame and can rush his release point at times, but the command will come. The Massachusetts native certainly has a lot going with him, and if the Marlins are patient, he has the ingredients to become a potential co-ace with Meyer. He'll just need to clean up the command a little bit and get more consistent with his secondaries, but I see no reason he won't. It's been rocky in the early going, as he's allowed seven runs (three earned) over 2.1 innings between the Florida Complex League and Low A Jupiter, striking out five and walking four along the way.

2-47: OF Kemp Alderman, Mississippi {video}
Slot value: $1.83 million. Signing bonus: $1.4 million ($425,300 below slot value).
My rank: #61. MLB Pipeline: #55. Baseball America: #102. Prospects Live: #95.
The Marlins saved some more money here in the second round, grabbing Kemp Alderman out of Ole Miss. He has gotten better and better during his time in Oxford, going from barely used freshman in 2021 to solid hitter in 2022 to one of the best hitters in the SEC in 2023, where he slashed .376/.440/.709 with 19 home runs and a 41/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games. It's one of the most extreme profiles in this draft class. Alderman is country strong, to put it lightly, with elite raw power bordering on 80 grade. His exit velocities are off the charts, in fact holding the highest 90th percentile exit velocity on my draft board (and likely in college baseball, though I don't have access to all the data) and a max exit velocity up around 118. He can demolish a baseball to the pull side, but the power plays plenty well to the opposite field and he doesn't need to square it up to send it out. On the flip side, the hit tool needs a lot of work. He's an extremely aggressive hitter that chases almost a third of the time, whiffing at a high rate that makes his pro outlook a little bit questionable. As the best hitter in Ole Miss' somewhat disappointing lineup last year, he didn't see a lot in the zone and still walked over 10% of the time, but he'll see a lot more pitches in the shadow zone in pro ball and he'll have to adjust. As I mentioned before, though, he doesn't need to get all of it to get it out, so he'll have the luxury of doing damage on his mishits, just so long as he makes some contact. The rural Mississippi native is a fringy runner who won't provide a ton of value on defense, but his plus arm should partially make up for that in right field. He pitched a bit for the Rebels as well and touched 94 on the mound. Together, Alderman has the look of a power hitting corner outfielder who may be forced to a platoon role if he continues to chase at his current rate. He's still getting acclimated to pro pitching with a .196/.288/.299 slash line, one home run, and a 33/6 strikeout to walk ratio through 29 games at Low A Jupiter.

3-78: 1B Brock Vradenburg, Michigan State {video}
Slot value: $916,000. Signing bonus: $916,000.
My rank: #121. MLB Pipeline: #117. Baseball America: #178. Prospects Live: #146.
Like Kemp Alderman, Brock Vradenburg has gotten better and better throughout his time at Michigan State. He was a mediocre role player in 2021, then turned into a solid if unspectacular every day player in 2022 even if he wasn't really considered a pro prospect. However, he broke out in a big way in 2023 and slashed .400/.492/.721 with 13 home runs and a 34/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games, brute forcing his way into the top one hundred picks. Vradenburg is a towering presence in the box at 6'7", using a combination of plus barrel control, a patient approach, and a line drive swing to make a ton of hard contact to all fields. That stands in stark contrast to most towering hitters, whose long arms often inhibit their ability to make contact against quality stuff in the zone. Meanwhile, even though he doesn't go up to the plate looking to lift the ball, Vradenburg can really put a charge into it with sneaky high exit velocities that could translate to above average power if he chose to look for it. It will be interesting to see how the Marlins choose to proceed there, either letting him remain a hit over power bat or having him sacrifice some contact to put more balls over the fence. An average runner, his lanky frame and fringy athleticism inhibit him from playing much other than first base, and he's just adequate there as it is. With a ton of pressure on his bat and zero help from his glove, the Southern California native will need to continue to hit for impact all the way up the ladder if he wants to play every day. He has what it takes to make contact and get on base, and we'll just need to unlock a little more power along the way. His bat hasn't quite gotten going yet, as he's slashing .204/.333/.258 with one home run and a 32/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games at Low A Jupiter.

4-110: LHP Emmett Olson, Nebraska {video}
Slot value: $609,600. Signing bonus: $460,000 ($149,600 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #228. Baseball America: #283. Prospects Live: #307.
Emmett Olson isn't the most exciting prospect in this class, but he should give the Marlins an interesting starting pitching prospect to work with. Olson had a great sophomore season (2.86 ERA, 65/16 K/BB) and started off hot in 2023, but couldn't maintain that and finished the season with a 4.50 ERA and an 80/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 82 innings. He sits around 90 with his fastball, usually a tick above, and touches 94 at peak with some riding action from an overhand slot. He works in a full arsenal of secondaries, though none are true bat missers. His slider is probably his best pitch with some late diving action, while his curveball is bigger and used to steal strikes when he lands it, and his changeup is mostly a change of pace for right handed hitters. Olson works all of it with solid command that helps him get into good counts and executive his game plan, helping everything play up a touch. The Chicago-area native projects as a #5 starter or long reliever, with a chance for more if one of his secondary pitches can take a step forward and he perhaps adds a tick of velocity. In his first outing in the Florida Complex League, he allowed one run over 1.2 innings with two strikeouts to one walk.

5-146: RHP Andrew Lindsey, Tennessee {video}
Slot value: $429,400. Signing bonus: $340,000 ($89,400 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #172. Baseball America: #394. Prospects Live: #96.
This is one of the more interesting profiles in the Marlins' class. Andrew Lindsey started his college career at Walters State JC, transferred to Charlotte, then stepped away from the game in 2022 despite a successful run with the 49ers in 2021. After a year off, he and fellow former Walters State Senator Zach Joyce both came back from their hiatuses to join the Tennessee Volunteers, with Joyce also having stepped away from the game, in his case for mental health reasons. Joyce was drafted by the Angels in the fourteenth round this year, while Lindsey earned his way into the fifth round here. He actually pushed his way ahead of eventual Rockies first round pick Chase Dollander to become the Tennessee ace, putting up a 2.90 ERA and a 73/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 71.1 innings as a swingman. Like many Tennessee pitchers, Lindsey has seen a velocity bump and now sits in the mid 90's, touching 98 with heavy sink and run from a lower slot. His short slider has cutter-like action in the upper 80's and can pop across that 90 threshold, giving him a true bat missing pitch, while his curveball and changeup are used a bit less often. He pounds the strike zone with everything and repeats his low three quarters delivery consistently. The 6'3" righty is also a great athlete with plenty of present physicality, maintaining his stuff deep into games and looking like a starting pitcher long term. Really, the only major drawback in his profile is his age, as he'll turn 24 in November and is therefore already older than dozens of major leaguers including Julio Rodriguez, Bobby Witt Jr., and Michael Harris. Still, Lindsey has the potential to move quickly even as a starting pitcher. He didn't appear on my rankings, but he was in that next batch of players I would have loved to get to before draft day (there always has to be a batch). In two Florida Complex League starts, he allowed four runs over 4.1 innings while striking out two and walking one.

6-173: OF Jake DeLeo, Georgia Tech {video}
Slot value: $333,900. Signing bonus: $300,000 ($33,900 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #304. Prospects Live: #269.
Jake DeLeo is another older prospect, though still a year and a half younger than Andrew Lindsey, having turned 22 in May. He started the season on a fifteen game hitting streak and finished on a fourteen game hitting streak, totaling a .365/.426/.651 slash line, 14 home runs, and a 48/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. DeLeo has a quick right handed bat capable of gashing hard line drives to all fields, and he can turn on the ball too for average power. It's a simple swing that helps him make plenty of contact in the zone, though his approach is raw and does have a tendency to chase. That, plus an overall streaky bat, leads to a bit of a questionable hit tool, though he did improve significantly from his first season in the Cape Cod League (.234/.271/.288, 30/6 K/BB) to his second (.248/.326/.405, 44/13 K/BB). If he can clean the approach up a little bit, he probably profiles as a gap to gap hitter that can hit plenty of doubles and triples while ambushing you for 10-15 home runs per season. The Connecticut native is also an above average runner with a strong arm that should be able to play center field in the bigs at least in a reserve role, making this a pretty clear fourth outfield profile. If he can find a way to continue tapping his power consistently in games against more advanced pitching, it could be more. He's outhitting the guys drafted above him in this Marlins class so far, slashing .246/.314/.410 with four home runs, twelve stolen bases, and a 34/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games for Low A Jupiter.

7-203: LHP Justin Storm, Southern Miss {video}
Slot value: $261,000. Signing bonus: $241,000 ($20,000 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #185. Baseball America: #294. Prospects Live: #261.
Justin Storm never started a game in his three years at Southern Miss, but gives the Marlins a solid relief prospect. He had his best year yet in 2023, posting a 2.36 ERA and a 72/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 45.2 innings, serving as the Southern Miss closer. Storm sits in the low 90's with his fastball, touching 95, with plenty of carrying action from a high slot similar to Emmett Olson. He shows great feel for his slider, which shows late, deep break, and helps him miss a ton of bats. Storm is a huge guy at 6'7", 230 pounds, and generates his velocity pretty easily so he can spot pitches well around the zone, better than most relievers. For that reason, you could think about throwing him out there as a starter, though he'll need to develop a changeup and given that he's in the low 90's already, you don't want him losing any more velocity. With two big league pitches and solid command, he could move pretty quickly if he remains in the bullpen. In 4.1 innings in the Florida Complex League, he allowed three runs and struck out four but walked six.

15-443: RHP Nigel Belgrave, Maryland {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #250. Baseball America: #313. Prospects Live: #178.
Nigel Belgrave gives the Marlins a high octane pure reliever. While Justin Storm has a chance to make the jump to the rotation if the Marlins want to go that route, Belgrave is a pure reliever. He didn't pitch as a true freshman then walked 22 batters in 18 innings as a redshirt freshman in 2022, then took a step forward in the Cape Cod League where he put up a 3.52 ERA and an 11/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 15.1 innings. Coming back to Maryland for his redshirt sophomore season this past spring, he put up a 6.42 ERA and a 43/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.2 innings, leaving a pretty clear picture for scouts. The fastball sits in the mid 90's and touches 97 with sink and run, acting as a ground ball machine that can be difficult to lift with any kind of authority. His slider is equally deadly, with power and late sweep that give him a true bat misser. It's just those two for now, though Belgrave has worked in a cutter lately and that could split the difference nicely. The command has improved but remains comfortably below average, causing him to get hit hard when he falls behind in the count. The 6'4" righty has a pretty free and easy delivery, but his combination of a long trunk rotation and a very loose arm lead to difficulty repeating the whole thing. The Marlins may need to streamline and clean things up a bit in order to get him to passable command, so he can effectively mix that fastball/slider and keep hitters guessing. So far, he has allowed four runs in six innings while striking out seven and walking nine between the Florida Complex League and Low A Jupiter.

Wednesday, August 24, 2022

2022 MLB Draft Review: Miami Marlins

Full list of draftees

The Marlins are one of the better organizations out there when it comes to pitching development and really struggle with hitters. So naturally, they drafted a near-finished product with the bat in the first round then proceeded to take eleven consecutive pitchers in rounds 2-12, highlighted by two expensive high schoolers at the top and a slew of power college arms. I don't love the final list of names here, and I really didn't like the Jacob Berry pick to start things off. They prioritized velocity and feel for spin here, and did pick up a very interesting sleeper in twelfth rounder Cole Kirschsieper.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-6: 3B Jacob Berry, Louisiana State. My rank: #18.
Slot value: $6.04 million. Signing bonus: $6 million ($37,500 below slot value).
I'll be honest, of all the picks in the first round, this one left me scratching my head the most even if it wasn't necessarily a surprise. Brooks Lee (#5 on my board) has a very similar profile to Jacob Berry (#18 on my board) except that he hits for even more power and provides much more value on defense, and he was still available here and wound up signing for $300,000 less. Obviously teams look for different things from players and I'm never going to call my board the gospel, but these players being so similar and Lee clearly being better at the same things is just odd to me. If Berry goes on to have a significantly better career than Lee, I can eat my words. Anyways, let's talk about Jacob Berry. He originally began his career at Arizona, where he put up a monster freshman season slashing .352/.439/.676 with 17 home runs, then transferred to LSU as a sophomore. The SEC proved to be no problem for the Phoenix-area native, as he slashed .370/.464/.630 with 15 home runs and a 22/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games as a draft-eligible sophomore whose May birthday makes him the age of a college junior. Berry is a switch hitter, built like a boulder full of solid muscle at 6', 210 pounds. He takes a very simple, direct hack from both sides of the plate with excellent pitch recognition and feel for the barrel. After running a solid 19.5% strikeout rate as a freshman last year, he cut that to 8.9% this spring as he just barreled up everything he saw. Despite the build, he's actually a hit-over-power guy that thrives by his ability to find the barrel. He does not boast the elite top-end exit velocities you typically see at the top of the draft, especially as a first baseman, relying on a high quantity of hard hit balls rather than absolutely crushing it here and there. That means he'll probably move pretty quickly through the minors and he could be up as soon as next season, with the potential to hit 20+ home runs a year with high on-base percentages. Defensively, he manned third base for LSU this spring but probably profiles as a first baseman going forward, with clunky actions at the hot corner and an arm that might be a little bit light. There is also a chance he could crack it in left field. Regardless, he will provide value with his bat and should hit enough to play every day no matter where he winds up. It's a very solid mid to late first round profile, but the Marlins are really, really banking on his above average raw power showing up with wood bats to pick him in the top ten without a discount. So far, he's slashing .230/.327/.333 with two home runs and an 18/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Jupiter. 

2-46: RHP Jacob Miller, Liberty Union HS [OH]. My rank: #39.
Slot value: $1.7 million. Signing bonus: $1.7 million.
I like this pick a lot better, and I'm surprised the Marlins didn't have to go above slot value to sign Jacob Miller away from that Louisville commitment. A second to third round pick heading into the season, he had a fantastic spring that pushed him into late first round conversations, but lasted until the Marlins in the early second round. He saw a velocity bump this spring and sat in the low to mid 90's, touching as high as 99, but he stands out most for his feel for spin. Miller throws a nasty, plus curveball with wicked two-plane bite in addition to a tighter, firmer slider that looks above average and a solid changeup with some run. The 6'2" righty pounds the strike zone with solid average command for a teenager, with a durable frame that should lend itself well to starting. He's not the greatest athlete on the mound, but the present stuff combined with the size and command are plenty enough to over look that. Expect him to miss a ton of bats in the low minors with that power arsenal, and he could be a very solid #3 starter for Miami in time. The central Ohio native should thrive in this system, and here is some really good video giving a taste of what Marlins fans are in for. So far through three short Florida Complex League starts, he has a has allowed five runs (three earned) with three strikeouts to two walks over 3.2 innings.

3-85: RHP Karson Milbrandt, Liberty HS [MO]. My rank: #91.
Slot value: $747,100. Signing bonus: $1.5 million ($752,900 above slot value).
39 picks later, Karson Milbrandt got nearly as much to sign away from his Vanderbilt commitment as Miller did from his Louisville commitment. Milbrandt from Liberty, like Miller from Liberty Union, had a strong spring that moved him up about a round or so. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and gets up to 96, a couple ticks behind Miller, but he does get much more life on the pitch with huge spin rates and plenty of running action. His slider and curveball took a step forward this spring and both now flash above average, while his changeup is inconsistent but solid. Milbrandt comes from a low three quarters slot that makes for a very deceptive look, making for a very enticing profile that the Marlins can get creative with. There is plenty of projection in his 6'2" frame and he moves well on the mound, though there is some work to be done to remain a starter. For now, he sometimes struggles to repeat his release point and shows fringy command, which does point to some relief risk. His offspeed stuff taking a step forward does help in that regard, though. If the Marlins can get the Kansas City-area native more consistent with his mechanics and help that offspeed stuff continue on the positive trend it was on, they could have a really interesting arm on their hands.

4-112: RHP Marcus Johnson, Duke. My rank: #152.
Slot value: $543,800. Signing bonus: $510,000 ($33,800 below slot value).
Moving on to the college ranks, the Marlins believe they're buying low on Marcus Johnson, who was in the second round conversation entering the season. He was excellent out of the Duke bullpen as a sophomore last year, with a 3.05 ERA and a 59/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 innings, then transitioned to the rotation this year with mixed results. His ERA ballooned to 5.61 while he ran a still-solid 76/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 innings, that K rate dipping slightly from 26.5% to 23.8% while his walk rate rose slightly from 5.4% to 7.8%. His fastball touches 97 in short stints but sat more in the low 90's as a starter, coming in with nice riding action that helps it play a little above that velocity when located. He snapped off a plus slider out of the bullpen that looked more above average as a starter, also adding in a solid changeup. With a big, projectable 6'5" frame and a repeatable, short arm delivery that helps him pound the strike zone, he does have what it takes to start even with the more ordinary stuff. Even in the starting role, he did show flashes of that true bat missing stuff and the Marlins believe they can get him showing it more consistently even in those extended outings, which could make him a #3 starter if it all works out. If he does move back to the bullpen, the Southern California native has already proven he can thrive off that fastball/slider combination while controlling at bats and overpowering hitters. So far, he has allowed four runs over 4.1 innings with five strikeouts to four walks in the Florida Complex League.

5-142: RHP Josh White, California. My rank: #200.
Slot value: $406,500. Signing bonus: $406,500.
The Marlins went back to the college ranks in the fifth round to pick up another power arm, taking Josh White out of Cal. He was great as a sophomore in 2021 with a 2.79 ERA and an 81/25 strikeout to walk ratio, but took a step back as a junior with a 5.05 ERA and a 91/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 67.2 innings. White sits in the low 90's with his fastball but can reach back for up to 97, coming in with steep angle and some minor running action. He shows feel to spin a breaking ball, flashing above average with both his slider and curveball at his best. The San Francisco Bay Area native does add a changeup, but it's a fourth pitch for now that he doesn't have much feel for. With an upright delivery and average athleticism, he doesn't move as well on the mound as perhaps a guy like Karson Milbrandt or Marcus Johnson, and his command is very inconsistent. The Marlins are buying the arm strength on a guy who has flashes serious bat missing stuff at his best and has thrived at times in the Pac-12, combined with that great feel for spin. The 6'1" righty doesn't come with a ton of projection but could work in as a back-end starter or a breaking ball-heavy reliever, and increased velocity on his fastball could help make up for its lack of life. So far, he has allowed four runs through four innings in the Florida Complex League, striking out six while walking three.

6-172: RHP Jared Poland, Louisville. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $306,400. Signing bonus: $149,000 ($157,400 below slot value).
Jared Poland is the first big money saver to help afford Karson Milbrandt, but he still brings value in his own right. A two-way player early in his Louisville career, he gave up hitting after his sophomore season and saw his pitching take a step forward as a result. 2022 was his best year yet, where he posted a 3.46 ERA and a 103/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 83.1 innings. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and gets up to 96, but it plays below its velocity because he puts steep angle on it with average life. Poland makes his money on his offspeed pitches, including an above average slider with deep bite and a solid average changeup. The 6' righty locates his stuff well and loves to go right after hitters, helping his stuff play up further except when his fastball catches too much plate. A senior sign that will turn 23 this offseason, the Marlins will want him to move a little quicker and he may fit best in a bullpen role, where he can pitch off his offspeed stuff and add a tick to that generic fastball. It's not too dissimilar a profile to Josh White a pick earlier, except that he's a year older with better command. He has thrown 2.2 shutout innings so far in the Florida Complex League, striking out two and walking three.

12-352: LHP Cole Kirschsieper, Illinois. My rank: #186.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
This pick could be a very interesting sleeper, especially in an organization that develops pitching as well as the Marlins do. Cole Kirschsieper rose to prominence with a flat out incredible run through last summer, in which he played in the Appalachian League, with the US Collegiate National Team, and in the Cape Cod League, where he regularly faced elite competition. Between the three, he allowed just one earned run over 36 innings (0.25 ERA) and struck out 54 against 17 walks, putting himself firmly on my radar entering the season. While he couldn't quite build off that success, he was still solid at Illinois this spring and posted a 3.17 ERA and an 85/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.1 innings. Kirschsieper doesn't throw all that hard, sitting around 90 and touching 93, so he'll need to add velocity. The slider is average with some sweeping action, while his above average changeup misses bats and keeps hitters off balance. The 5'11" lefty comes from a deceptive, low three quarters slot that makes all of his stuff play up, working east-west and commanding everything pretty well. He does not presently throw hard enough to get major league hitters out, so adding at least a tick of velocity if not a little more will be very important. Beyond that, sharpening his offspeed pitches would be useful, but they're playable now. If the Chicago-area native moves to the bullpen, he has enough life on his fastball to play well with only a small uptick to perhaps 91-93 as opposed to the 89-91 he sits around now being very useful. Despite being on the smaller side, I would like to see how he can play in the rotation for now. He's looked good so far, with three shutout innings in the Florida Complex League with four strikeouts and no walks.

14-412: 1B Torin Montgomery, Missouri. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $75,000.
The Marlins drafted Torin Montgomery in the 35th round out of high school in 2019, and three years later they got their guy. He began his college career at Boise State but transferred to Missouri after one season, and in 2022 he caught fire at the plate, slashing .362/.456/.542 with seven home runs and a 37/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games. Big and strong at 6'3", 230 pounds, he can really smoke a baseball with the best of them, showing plus raw power in the tank although he doesn't tap it very often. For now, he hits the ball on the ground too much and doesn't elevate with as much authority as he's capable of, so working on getting more loft into his swing will be important in his development. Not just a pure slugger, Montgomery makes a lot of contact from the right side and rarely swings and misses, though he can be a tad aggressive. It's a very enticing bat with the right development, and he'll have to hit because he's limited to first base defensively. The Seattle-area native doesn't run all that well and looks like a potential platoon/bench bat in the future. So far, he's slashing .259/.341/.407 with two home runs and a 23/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Jupiter.

16-472: SS Brett Roberts, Florida State. My rank: #217.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $100,000.
The Marlins finally came home to the Sunshine State in the sixteenth round, grabbing Brett Roberts out of Florida State. Roberts is not a native Floridian, having grown up in Atlanta and beginning his college career at Tennessee Tech, but he adjusted very well to Tallahassee and the ACC slate to land himself in the sixteenth round. In 2022, he slashed .300/.372/.461 with five home runs and a 36/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games, holding down an everyday role for the Seminoles. A pro hitter, he makes a ton of contact from the right side and struck out in just 14.5% of his plate appearances, regularly putting the ball in play and making the defense work. He uses the whole field and hits it where they ain't, but the overall impact is a question. He produces unremarkable exit velocities and I rarely see him turn on the ball, so most of his power will come to the gaps. An above average runner, he can play all over the field and projects as a solid utility infielder, showing plenty enough range and arm strength to give you confidence at shortstop. He's off to a hot start in the Florida Complex League, slashing .256/.333/.488 with three home runs and an 8/5 strikeout to walk ratio through 13 games.

19-562: C Carmine Lane, South Florida. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: unspecified.
Carmine Lane represents the one and only player from South Florida in the Marlins' draft class. A native of Lake Worth about sixty miles north of downtown Miami, he attended American Heritage High School in Delray Beach before matriculating north to USF in Tampa. He has gotten better and better each year there, including a huge 2022 in which he slashed .332/.390/.523 with ten home runs and a 38/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. He takes huge, healthy hacks from the right side that help him really stroke the ball to the pull side, but he still ran a solid 14.3% strikeout rate with strong bat to ball skills. He may need to tone down his approach just a little bit as he moves from the AAC to pro ball, but his combination of leverage and bat to ball skills aren't easy to find in the second to last round of the draft. Interestingly, the Marlins drafted him as a catcher despite having played every single position on the diamond except catcher for USF, even pitching 2.1 innings as a freshman. I'm not entirely sure what Miami intends to do with him defensively, but he played mostly third base for the Bulls and showed off a strong arm that would work well behind the plate. He's hitless with three strikeouts in six at bats so far in the Florida Complex League, but has drawn two walks.