Man, if only the Pirates hadn't acquired less for Gerrit Cole, one of the best pitchers in the game, than they traded away for Chris Archer, a solid #4 starter. Even looking just specifically at the minor leagues, losing out on Shane Baz hurts, and the fact that highly touted draft picks like Steven Jennings, Braxton Ashcraft, and Conner Uselton have yet to really get it going hurts in the depth department. There are some really interesting guys, like Mitch Keller, Oneil Cruz, Ke'Bryan Hayes, and Travis Swaggerty, but overall I'm really underwhelmed by this system and I don't think they've drafted particularly well at all recently (though I do like Quinn Priester a lot). On the bright side, breakouts from Cody Bolton, Mason Martin, and Lolo Sanchez help a lot, and now the Pirates would like to see guys like Swaggerty, Ashcraft, and Santiago Florez do the same.
Affiliates: AAA Indianapolis Indians, AA Altoona Curve, High A Bradenton Marauders, Class A Greensboro Grasshoppers, short season West Virginia Black Bears, rookie level Bristol Pirates, complex level GCL and DSL Pirates
Catcher
- Jason Delay (2020 Age: 25): Despite drafting three well known college catchers in the top five rounds of the 2017 and 2018 drafts, the Pirates have very little in the way of future major league talent behind the plate. Delay, a fourth round pick out of Vanderbilt in 2017, is probably the most likely of the group to reach the majors after he slashed .234/.286/.398 with eight home runs and a 63/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games at AA Altoona. He's absolutely a glove-first guy, as he's good enough defensively to start every day in the majors right now and brings all the intangibles you need in a catcher. However, he'll never hit enough to start. Whether he hits enough to actually get to the majors at all is still up in the air, as he has some pop from the right side but not a lot and he doesn't have great on-base skills. The best case scenario here is probably something of a Jeff Mathis profile.
- Keep an eye on: Deon Stafford, Grant Koch
Corner Infield
- Ke'Bryan Hayes (2020 Age: 23): Hayes was a late first round pick out of a Houston-area high school in 2015 and he's moved up through the Pirates system one level at a time, finally reaching AAA in 2019 and slashing .261/.334/.411 with ten home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 92/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games, 110 of which were with Indianapolis. He's hit over power, with the knack for finding the barrel and hitting lots of balls to the gaps and quite a few over the fence. He'll probably always be more of a doubles hitter than a home run guy, as evidenced by his 62 doubles and 17 home runs over the past two seasons and the fact that he's physically mature at 6'1", and his strong plate discipline will help him be a doubles machine at the next level. In fact, his stats from Indianapolis this year might be a fair projection of what he'll do in the majors, maybe with a few more home runs to get him up to 15-20 annually. He's a defensive whiz at third base, which means the pressure is off his bat, not that he needs it off.
- Will Craig (2020 Age: 25): Craig is a very different prospect than Hayes, but the two still share a lot in common. Craig was drafted in the first round out of Wake Forest in 2016 and has moved a level at a time after skipping Class A, and in 2019 he slashed .249/.326/.435 with 23 home runs and a 146/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at AAA Indianapolis. He's a power hitter at 6'3" and has increased his home run totals each year in the minors, though I can't say fully confidently that he'll get to it a ton at the major league level. He's a talented hitter who may be able to make it work up there, but he's also limited defensively to first base so he'll have to hit. I see kind of a borderline starter, one who hits 15-20 home runs annually but who may struggle in the on-base department.
- Mason Martin (2020 Age: 20-21): Here's an interesting one. Martin was a 17th round pick out of a high school in southeastern Washington in 2017, and he struggled significantly with contact in 2018 by striking out in 35.8% of his plate appearances in Class A and in 32.3% once he was dropped to rookie ball. This year was a different story; he crushed 35 home runs while slashing .254/.351/.558 with a 168/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at Class A Greensboro and High A Bradenton, which meant a 29% strikeout rate at Class A and a 32.3% rate after the promotion to High A. That's still high, but he shortened his left handed swing in 2019 and that enabled him to get to his big time raw power significantly more often, and he led all minor leaguers with 129 RBI, way ahead of a second place tie at 107. Like Craig, he's limited to first base, but the trajectory is up here and Martin could be a real power threat at the major league level in a few years. Strikeouts will continue to be an issue but he doesn't turn 21 until June, so he has time.
- Dylan Busby (2020 Age: 24): I don't envision Busby ever becoming a full time starter for the Pirates at first base, as Mason Martin has more upside and Will Craig is a more advanced hitter at the same age, but his big time power could push him up the ladder in a bench role. In 2019, he slashed .213/.316/.453 with 22 home runs and a 158/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at High A Bradenton, with home runs and strikeouts (36.4% rate on the latter) being his calling card. He's 6'2" and generates his power from his long arms and naturally whippy swing, which should help it play up. However, he has serious swing and miss concerns and he's three and a half years older than Martin, so I'm not sure he'll ever fully put them behind him, and his best outlook is likely as a bench bat/pinch hitter with power.
- Keep an eye on: Jared Triolo
Middle Infield
- Kevin Kramer (2020 Age: 26): Yes, Pirates fans, Kevin Kramer is still technically a prospect. After slashing .135/.175/.135 in 21 major league games in 2018, he slightly improved that line to .167/.260/.190 in 22 major league games in 2019, though he spent the majority of his season at AAA Indianapolis and slashed .260/.335/.417 with ten home runs and a 116/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games. He's a pretty average player across the board, showing some power from time to time while also doing a pretty decent job of getting on base and keeping his strikeouts down, which should help him eventually adjust to major league pitching and improve that .152/.222/.165 career line. He's spent time at second and third base and will likely continue to do so in the majors, where he likely won't ever start regularly unless the Pirates try to tank and sell off guys like Colin Moran. He could also see time in the outfield in the likely case that Starling Marte ends up traded, and Kramer's offensive profile probably has him around ten home runs annually with middling on-base percentages.
- Oneil Cruz (2020 Age: 21): Here's the exciting one. Cruz was acquired from the Dodgers for Tony Watson in 2017 and has developed into one of the systems beset prospects, and in 2019 he slashed .298/.356/.475 with eight home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 74/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 games, mostly at High A Bradenton and AA Altoona. He's an absolute beanstalk, listed a 6'7" and 175 pounds, but he's a surprisingly competent hitter who has improved his hit tool and who finds the barrel regularly because he doesn't sell out for his power. There may be some who actually wish he would do so, as he could hit 30+ home runs annually if he did without sacrificing that feel for the barrel, though I think he's better off staying true to himself as a hitter and letting that power develop naturally as he thickens up and improves his pitch recognition. Defensively, he's managed to stick at shortstop so far despite his height, as he has a plus-plus arm, though he may have to move to third base or the outfield eventually. Overall, nobody in this system has a higher ceiling.
- Robbie Glendinning (2020 Age: 24): Raise your hand if you saw this one coming. Robbie Glendinning, an Australia native and 21st round pick out of Missouri in 2017 who slashed an unremarkable .268/.360/.381 in 59 games in 2018, had a huge breakout this year. Starting at High A Bradenton, he slashed .340/.393/.599 with eight home runs and a 50/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games, forcing a quick promotion to AA Altoona, where he cooled off a bit but still slashed .261/.346/.391 with five home runs and a 65/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games against advanced pitching. While his power is mostly to the gaps, he was able to find his home run stroke 13 times in 2019 and impact the ball consistently, and now he has a chance to compete with Kevin Kramer and try to break into the majors as a utility infielder with gap power and feel for the barrel. I don't expect Glendinning to start regularly, but he's advanced enough to carve out a bench role soon.
- Ji-Hwan Bae (2020 Age: 20-21): Ugh. Bae is an extremely talented player, but he beat up his girlfriend last year and it's hard to write nice things about him. Bae signed for $1.25 million after having his contract with the Braves cancelled during the bonus-manipulation scandal, and he was suspended for 30 games in 2019 due to the assault. However, once he returned, he played very well, slashing .323/.403/.430 with no home runs but 31 stolen bases and a 77/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 86 games. Though he only turned 20 mid season, he showed great on-base ability with his contact-oriented approach and feel for the barrel. His swing is a bit similar to Ichiro's in that he often clears his body from the left handed batters box while starting towards first base, and that will likely keep him from providing much in the way of home run power. However, he finds the barrel consistently and can spray balls to the gaps, then uses his plus speed to get extra bases. Defensively, he has the tools to stick at shortstop, but he needs to refine his game there a bit. With some further development he could start at shortstop or second base for the Pirates down the line, but he'll be rightfully hard to root for as a convicted domestic abuser.
- Rodolfo Castro (2020 Age: 20-21): Castro is a bat-first second baseman who slashed .242/.298/.456 with 19 home runs and a 122/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at Class A Greensboro and High A Bradenton, though he was better at the lower level (.242/.306/.516) than the higher one (.243/.288/.391). Despite an aggressive approach, he's handled advanced pitching at a young age and still doesn't turn 21 until May, giving him plenty of time to iron out the holes in his swing and continue to develop both in the on-base and power departments as a switch hitter with a quick bat. Defensively, he's pretty unspectacular and may end up at second or third base, where he should be adequate but a bit below average. It's probably a bat-first utility infielder profile unless he really breaks out with that bat.
- Keep an eye on: Stephen Alemais, Connor Kaiser, Ethan Paul
Outfield
- Jason Martin (2020 Age: 24): One of the four players acquired in the ill-advised Gerrit Cole trade, and he reached the majors and slashed .250/.325/.306 in 20 games there this year. He spent most of the season at AAA Indianapolis, where he slashed .259/.312/.419 with eight home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 79/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 games. Despite standing only 5'9", he's a quality athlete with a little bit of power and good speed, though those who doubted him because of his height may turn out to be right as his bat looks like it lacks the thump to land him in a starting role. With his speed, he should be a solid left fielder who can handle center if needed, and that gives him a fourth outfielder projection.
- Travis Swaggerty (2020 Age: 22): Swaggerty capped off a very productive career at the University of South Alabama with a first round selection in the 2018 draft, though his numbers in his first full season were just adequate. In 121 games at High A Bradenton, he slashed .265/.347/.381 with nine home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 116/57 strikeout to walk ratio, though the Florida State League is known to be pitcher-friendly. Though he's just 5'11", he packs a lot of strength into his frame and should be able to hit 15-20 home runs annually at the major league level, if not more if he finds the barrel more. He also has good feel for the barrel and with his patient approach, he should be able to post good on-base percentages at the major league level, where he can use his speed to steal some bases. A good defender in center field, Swaggerty can impact the game in a lot of ways, though he'll need to prove just how much impact he can provide after an unspectacular run through High A. Age is on his side, as he was young for a college junior when he was drafted and he only turned 21 at the end of the minor league season, when he'd already played over 100 games at High A.
- Jared Oliva (2020 Age: 24): Oliva has been a consistently decent hitter throughout his time in the Pirates system and indeed even dating back to his time at Arizona, where he was a seventh round pick in 2017. In 2019, Oliva slashed .277/.352/.398 with six home runs, 36 stolen bases, and a 104/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games, standing out for his speed and his feel for the barrel. A great baserunner, he's now stolen 84 bases in 287 games as a pro, and he's been able to produce good gap power and a bit of home run power as he's moved up through the minors. I have a hard time pegging him as a starter due to the lack of real home run power as well as good-not-great defense that has kept him in center field for now, but his profile does fit really well as a fourth outfielder and I like him better for that role than Jason Martin.
- Cal Mitchell (2020 Age: 21): Mitchell has been a bit enigmatic as a prospect, looking like a potential first round pick for the 2017 draft before a rough senior season at his San Diego high school dropped him to the second round. He then hit well at Class A in 2018 (.280/.344/.427) and set himself up nicely at Bradenton this year, where he slashed .251/.304/.406 with 15 home runs and a 142/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games alongside Swaggerty in that Marauder outfield. His natural strength and feel for the barrel could help him hit 20 home runs annually in the majors, though his aggressive approach at the plate gives him some swing and miss and really limits his walks, so he'll have to continue to work to find better pitches to hit so he can get to his power. Defensively, he's just adequate in left field, so it's that 20 homer/decent on-base percentage upside that will carry him through the minors.
- Lolo Sanchez (2020 Age: 21): Kevin Sanchez, better known by his great nickname Lolo, tore it up at Class A Greensboro this year by slashing .301/.377/.451 with four home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 28/17 strikeout to walk ratio in 61 games before a promotion to High A Bradenton. He didn't hit nearly as well there, slashing just .196/.300/.270 with one home run, 13 stolen bases, and a 31/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games, but at least he maintained his great plate discipline. Sanchez is a contact hitter who rarely strikes out and draws his fair share of walks, then uses his speed on the bases. However he lacks a ton of impact with the bat, and he'll need to drive the ball more against advanced pitching if he wants to start at the major league level eventually. Defensively, he's good in center field and that takes some pressure off his bat.
- Matt Gorski (2020 Age: 22): The Pirates took Gorski out of Indiana with their second round pick in 2019, though I think that was a bit of an overdraft. Gorski is a great athlete who had a big sophomore season in 2018 before slumping a bit in 2019, then he slashed .223/.297/.346 with three home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 48/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games at short season West Virginia. He has some power at 6'4", though he hasn't tapped it consistently and it's mostly projection at this point. He also has speed and a strong arm, giving him all the physical tools he needs to succeed, though he might not have the best pure feel for the game and might not move as quickly as the typical college bat. It's kind of a boom/bust profile, which is more common in high school draftees.
- Sammy Siani (2020 Age: 18): The younger brother of Reds prospect Mike Siani, Sammy was drafted in the competitive balance round out of a Philadelphia high school in 2019. In his pro debut, he slashed .241/.372/.308 with a 41/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 39 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League, showing a patient approach and really smooth, uppercut swing that has yet to start producing real power. The Pirates believe that power will come, as he has very good feel for the barrel already and his swing is conducive to home runs, so we'll have to see how he handles his first full pro season. If all breaks right, he could hit 15-20 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages and decent outfield defense, though he comes with his share of risk.
- Keep an eye on: Bligh Madris, Chris Sharpe, Jonah Davis, Jack Herman, Blake Sabol, Matthew Fraizer, Conner Uselton
Starting Pitching
- Mitch Keller (2020 Age: 24): Keller was a second round pick out of a Cedar Rapids, Iowa high school in 2014, and he's dominated throughout his minor league career. In 2019, he posted a 3.56 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 123/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 103.2 innings at AAA Indianapolis, where he did well to shut down offenses despite the juiced baseballs. He didn't fare as well in his eleven major league starts, where he had a 7.13 ERA, a 1.83 WHIP, and a 65/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 innings, just barely staying below the rookie limits. He's a 6'2" righty who comfortably sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, adding a power curveball and a changeup, all of which he commands pretty well. His ability to control the strike zone, combined with his velocity, enabled his rise through the minors, and he still controlled the zone in the majors when he wasn't getting hit. He's certainly got the talent to succeed at the major league level, and once he settles in and learns to pitch to major league hitters, he should be a solid #2 or #3 starter.
- JT Brubaker (2020 Age: 26): Brubaker was a sixth round pick out of Akron in 2016 and was a fairly unremarkable prospect until 2018, when he broke out with a 2.81 ERA and a 131/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 154 innings at AA and AAA. Expectations were high for 2019, but he lasted just six starts, four of which were at AAA Indianapolis, and he posted a 2.28 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 24/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.2 innings before going down with elbow issues. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his diving fastball and adds a pair of good breaking balls, with his hard slider being the better one. Assuming health, the only thing holding him back from being an impact starter is a good changeup, as he doesn't have much of one, but he could still cut it as a #4/#5 guy without one, and he should be major league ready pretty early into 2020. He'd also make a good fastball/slider reliever.
- Cody Bolton (2020 Age: 21-22): A sixth round pick out of high school in Tracy, California in 2017, Bolton took a huge step forward this year with High A Bradenton, where he posted a 1.61 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and a 69/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 61.2 innings. He wasn't quite as good after a promotion to AA Altoona, where he had a 5.85 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 33/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 innings, but in all he established himself as one of the better arms in this system. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has sharpened his slider and improved his changeup, which helped make the difference for him this year. He also has above average command, and while he's not necessarily an ace, he now looks like he could be a really solid #3 starter with just a little further refinement of those secondaries.
- Aaron Shortridge (2020 Age: 22-23): Shortridge has had an up arrow next to his name for a few years, as he successfully transitioned from the bullpen to the rotation at Cal in 2018 and that led to being drafted in the fourth round that year, where he had a successful debut in short season ball (2.67 ERA, 38/7 K/BB). The Pirates bumped him up to High A Bradenton this year, where he posted a 3.25 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 104/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 135.2 innings. Standing 6'3", his best attribute is his command, as he rarely hurts himself with walks and can make his stuff play up by staying ahead in the count. That stuff is just decent, as he sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a mediocre curveball and changeup, and sharpening that secondary stuff just a little bit should help him work his way up as a back-end starter. If he has to move back to the bullpen, his stuff should tick up naturally and with his command, he'll be an effective reliever.
- Quinn Priester (2020 Age: 19): Cold weather high school pitchers tend to get less attention than their more developed counterparts in Florida, Texas, California, etc. that get to be outside much more often. Priester, however, used that to his advantage in the Chicago area, as he taught himself to pitch and used the cold weather to prove his toughness, looking sharp in his cold, windy, and rainy starts this past spring. The 6'3" righty went to the Pirates in the first round this year and posted a 3.19 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 41/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 36.2 innings in complex ball and one start at short season West Virginia. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a big, swing and miss curveball, as well as a solid changeup and command. He'll need further development, as is expected for a high school draftee, but he's a hard worker who really understands pitching, which should help him towards his ceiling of a #2 or #3 starter. He also may move quicker than the typical high school arm.
- Tahnaj Thomas (2020 Age: 20-21): Thomas, a product of the Bahamas, was acquired for Jordan Luplow last offseason and had a successful 2019, posting a 3.17 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 59/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 48.1 innings at rookie level Bristol. He's a great athlete and very projectable at 6'4", and his quick arm produces low to mid 90's fastballs and a slider ball with good depth. He's still refining his command but he's not necessarily wild, and he should be able to get to average or a tick above in that regard in time. He doesn't have much of a changeup at this point, so developing that will be key for him if he wants to remain a starter. He does profile well as a fastball/slider reliever, and that should be a good fallback for him.
- Braxton Ashcraft (2020 Age: 20): Ashcraft is the prototypical power Texas right hander, coming in at 6'5" and having been drafted in the second round in 2018 out of high school in Waco. He's yet to really get it going, and he posted a 5.77 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 39/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 innings at short season West Virginia, his lack of refinement as a pitcher doing him in against short season opponents. He sits fairly easily in the low 90's with his fastball, and he has a ton of projection and room to add more velocity with his athleticism. He also adds a good slider, but to this point, he's been hit harder than his stuff says that he should because he's still learning how to pitch rather than just throw. He's got the potential to be a mid rotation starter, but it'll take time and there's a lot of risk.
- Santiago Florez (2020 Age: 19-20): Florez is all projection at this point, but the Colombian teenager just looks like a pitcher. Reaching rookie level Bristol this year, he posted a 3.46 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 36/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 41.2 innings, an unremarkable stat line until you actually watch him pitch. Standing 6'5", he has an explosive right arm that pumps fastballs in the low to mid 90's and adds a big, looping curveball with great shape that he'll need to add some bite on. He still doesn't have much of a changeup or much command, so he comes with significant reliever risk, where he could develop into a back of the bullpen force with a little luck. He turns 20 in May and will be one to track.
- Keep an eye on: James Marvel, Pedro Vasquez, Max Kranick, Osvaldo Bido, Steven Jennings, Nicholas Economos
Relief Pitching
- Travis McGregor (2020 Age: 22): MacGregor is technically still a starter, but with significant work to do on his secondaries and all the injury trouble he's had, his most likely destination is the bullpen. The Pirates' second round pick in 2016 out of a Tampa-area high school, he had a breakout 2018 in which he posted a 3.18 ERA and an 80/22 strikeout to walk ratio but went down with Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2019. A 6'3" righty, he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and drops in a solid changeup, but his breaking ball is soft at this point and won't work if he wants to start in the higher levels. His stuff could tick up in shorter spurts and he'll be able to rely a bit more heavily on his hard fastball, though we of course need to see how he returns in a hopefully healthy 2020.
- J.C. Flowers (2020 Age: 21-22): Flowers was a two-way player at Florida State and served as FSU's closer, but the Pirates deployed him as a starter at short season West Virginia after drafting him in the fourth round this year. There, he had a 4.30 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 24/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 29.1 innings, not bad numbers for a converted reliever starting straight out in the New York-Penn League. He's very new to pitching and already sits in the low 90's while adding a solid slider and changeup, and the Pirates hope to develop him as a potential back-end starter with some untapped upside. If things don't work out, he has experience in the bullpen and could do well there, and the Pirates also have not ruled out transitioning him back to the outfield, where he has some speed and power.
- Keep an eye on: Luis Escobar, Montana DuRapau, Blake Cederlind
Showing posts with label Sammy Siani. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sammy Siani. Show all posts
Friday, December 6, 2019
Wednesday, June 26, 2019
2019 Draft Review: Pittsburgh Pirates
First five rounds: Quinn Priester (1-18), Sammy Siani (CBA-37), Matt Gorski (2-57), Jared Triolo (CBB-72), Matt Fraizer (3-95), J.C. Flowers (4-124), Grant Ford (5-154)
Also notable: Blake Sabol (7-214), Ethan Paul (9-274)
The Pirates took a couple of high-upside high schoolers at the start of the draft, then took ten straight college players as they followed the general trend in this year's draft. Interestingly, all of the college players they took early on actually come with risk/reward profiles that are more similar to high schoolers, so it looks like they really targeted upside overall in this draft. Given that they had competitive balance picks in both the A and B rounds and therefore five of the first 95 picks, I actually find their draft class to be a bit light, but we'll see how these upside guys turn out down the road.
1-18: RHP Quinn Priester (Cary-Grove HS [IL], my rank: 20)
The Pirates seem to like high school pitchers, and they grabbed another in Quinn Priester. The Chicago-area native entered the spring looking more like a comp round or early second round pick, but he pitched extremely well despite the nasty Chicago weather and pushed himself up boards. Most high school pitchers are much more "thrower" than "pitcher," but Priester is very much the latter, as he reportedly taught himself to pitch by watching YouTube rather than using a pitching coach. The results of his efforts are a low to mid 90's fastball and a very good curveball with solid command, though his changeup is still coming along. Given how much progress he made on his own, it's very easy to envision him taking another step forward with pro instruction, especially on the changeup and command fronts, and he even seems like the guy who could add a slider down the road. At 6'3", Priester is very athletic and does a very good job of getting his legs into his delivery to create velocity, and all together he is one of the more "starterish" high school pitchers in this draft. Priester has work to do, but he has a high ceiling and his feel for the game will help him make the most of his talent. He signed for $3.4 million, which was $80,000 below slot and diverted him away from a TCU commitment.
CBB-37: OF Sammy Siani (Penn Charter HS [PA], my rank: 48)
Siani hails from Pennsylvania, but he's not exactly a hometown player because he comes from the other end of the state in Philadelphia. His older brother, Mike, is currently at Class A Dayton in the Reds organization, though Sammy beat him by 72 picks after Mike signed over slot as a fourth rounder in 2018. Sammy is only 5'11" but he uses his smooth, uppercut swing to generate average power despite his size, and that should grow as he fills out his frame. That power also comes with an advanced hit tool, as Siani can make consistent hard contact from the left side of the plate and could be an all-around contributor at the plate. He's pretty fast and while he probably won't stick in center field, he should be a solid right fielder that produces some positive value out there. Overall, he projects for 15-20 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages, though as a 5'11" high schooler, he comes with his share of risk. It took $2.15 million, or $150,000 over slot, to sign him away from a Duke commitment, then he picked up two hits in ten at bats while striking out four times in his first two games the complex level Gulf Coast League.
2-57: OF Matt Gorski (Indiana, my rank: 137)
As you can tell by my ranking, I find this to be a questionable pick. Despite being a college junior, Gorski actually comes more with the risk/reward profile of a high school player. After a big sophomore season where he slashed .356/.404/.554 at Indiana, he regressed this year and dropped to .271/.374/.498 with 12 home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 62/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. The Indianapolis native comes with plenty of tools, as he shows power and stole 57 bases over three years in Bloomington, also adding in a strong arm. However, his mechanics tend to break down at times and you have to question his feel for the game, as he regularly plays below his tools. He has a long swing and still needs to add some loft to it to get to his power more regularly, but the 6'4" slugger struck out in 23.7% of his plate appearances this year and his hit tool is fringy as is. Because he's 6'4" and has both power and speed, he still retains his high upside at 21 years old, but he'll need some work. At best, Gorski could hit 20-25 home runs per season with mediocre on-base percentages and solid outfield defense, but he comes with more risk than the typical college hitter. He signed for $1 million, which was $240,000 below slot, and has two hits in fourteen at bats with seven strikeouts over his first four games at short season West Virginia, adding three walks.
CBB-72: 3B Jared Triolo (Houston, unranked)
Triolo is a fairly average player all around, but he's interesting and has some upside. In 2019, he slashed .332/.420/.512 with seven home runs and a 30/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games for the University of Houston, and that came on the heels of a solid .276/.364/.423 run through the Cape Cod League. The Austin-area native shows good feel for the barrel to go along with strong plate discipline, though his power is slightly below average at this point because his swing is more geared towards line drives. His swing may be fine as is, and that would lead to solid on-base percentages along with ten or so home runs a season, but some adjustments could help him tap the power in his 6'3" frame and get him up to 15-20 home runs annually. He's a solid-average defender at third base, and overall he projects as a fringe-regular who may more likely end up as a part time starter at the major league level. However, if he takes well to mechanical changes, he has the hitting aptitude to turn himself into a solid regular. He signed for $868,200, or $2,500 below slot, and he's slashing .217/.269/.522 with a home run and a 4/2 strikeout to walk ratio through his first six games at West Virginia.
3-95: OF Matt Fraizer (Arizona, unranked)
The Arizona Wildcats may have finished fifth in a tough Pac-12 this year with just a 15-14 in-conference record, but in the third round of the draft, Matt Fraizer was already the third Wildcat hitter drafted after Cameron Cannon (#43, Red Sox) and Nick Quintana (#47, Tigers). Fraizer slashed just .266/.352/.359 as a sophomore in 2018 then dropped to .165/.240/.187 over 31 games on the Cape, but he came out of the gate a different hitter in 2019. In March, the Fresno, California native was slashing .412/.452/.565 with a home run and a 6/6 strikeout to walk ratio through 19 games, but he broke his hand and that marked the end of his season. The Pirates obviously liked what they saw in those 19 games, and they'll hope that the breakout was for real. Fraizer has a quick, line drive swing that can spray balls around the park, and at 6'3", he should be able to tap some power at the next level. He's also fast, allowing him to impact the game in yet another way, and that makes him a solid center fielder. Given Fraizer's lack of a track record, he comes with more risk than the typical college player, but he also has a high ceiling and this pick could turn into a steal if that breakout truly was for real. He signed for $525,500, which was $85,800 below slot.
4-124: RHP J.C. Flowers (Florida State, unranked)
Flowers was both Florida State's starting center fielder and its closer, and although he slashed .268/.374/.500 with eleven home runs as a hitter this year, the Pirates look like they prefer him as a pitcher. The Jacksonville native had actually never pitched at the collegiate level prior to this season, as he broke his jaw as a sophomore and decided to take to pitching after his subsequent struggles. On the mound this year, he posted a 1.66 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 20/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 21.2 innings, also saving eleven games. He's a 6'3" righty without the typical velocity you'd like from college relievers, sitting in the low 90's, but he adds a solid hard slider and a present changeup despite being new to pitching. You'd typically think a pitcher like this would be confined to relief, but by taking him the fourth round, the Pirates must be taking into account his inexperience and his athleticism and concluding that he has a good chance to start. For now, he looks more like a back-end starter, but he definitely has the chance for more if he takes well to starting. Slot value is $460,000 and he has not signed yet.
5-154: RHP Grant Ford (Nevada, unranked)
Well, Grant Ford went unranked on both the MLB Pipeline top 200 and the Baseball America 500, and YouTube has no video on him since high school, so I'll admit I don't know much about him and I'll do my best here. He's a 6'1" righty from San Jose who posted a 2.76 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 51/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 45.2 innings for Nevada, a massive improvement over his poor 2018 season. Video from high school shows long arm action with a riding fastball, a solid changeup, and a fringy breaking ball, though he has historically struggled with his command at Nevada and seemed like he finally figured out the strike zone in 2019. He's likely a reliever at the next level and he signed for $422,500, which was $79,100 above slot, then allowed three runs over 1.2 innings in his first appearance at West Virginia.
7-214: OF Blake Sabol (Southern California, unranked)
Blake Sabol is a very talented player who hasn't quite gotten it together during his time at Southern California, and as a junior he slashed just .268/.346/.368 with three home runs and a 40/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. However, he showed what he can really do with a white hot run through the Cape Cod League over the summer, where he slashed .340/.445/.573 with seven home runs and a 21/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 37 games. Like Gorski and Triolo, he's a big guy at 6'4" but hasn't quite tapped his power as much as he should, as his mechanics get out of whack at times and he'll need a lot of refinement. There's a high ceiling here as a starting outfielder, but as a college junior, he has to make the adjustments quicker than a high schooler would. He signed for $247,500, which was $41,000 above slot, and he is slashing .227/.370/.364 with a 4/4 strikeout to walk ratio over six games at West Virginia.
9-274: SS Ethan Paul (Vanderbilt, unranked)
If you're watching the College World Series like I am as I write this, you've probably heard Ethan Paul's name as Vanderbilt's senior shortstop and three hitter. This year, he was a key cog in the Vandy offens, slashing .311/.382/.495 with nine home runs and a 64/31 strikeout to walk ratio through 70 games coming into the last game of the season. He's average across the board, showing some contact ability, mediocre but present power, and some speed. Defensively, he probably won't stick at shortstop but he'll be able to handle second base just fine, and he ultimately projects as a utility infielder. Slot value is $152,300, but as a senior who will be 23 in August, it will take less than that for him to sign.
Also notable: Blake Sabol (7-214), Ethan Paul (9-274)
The Pirates took a couple of high-upside high schoolers at the start of the draft, then took ten straight college players as they followed the general trend in this year's draft. Interestingly, all of the college players they took early on actually come with risk/reward profiles that are more similar to high schoolers, so it looks like they really targeted upside overall in this draft. Given that they had competitive balance picks in both the A and B rounds and therefore five of the first 95 picks, I actually find their draft class to be a bit light, but we'll see how these upside guys turn out down the road.
1-18: RHP Quinn Priester (Cary-Grove HS [IL], my rank: 20)
The Pirates seem to like high school pitchers, and they grabbed another in Quinn Priester. The Chicago-area native entered the spring looking more like a comp round or early second round pick, but he pitched extremely well despite the nasty Chicago weather and pushed himself up boards. Most high school pitchers are much more "thrower" than "pitcher," but Priester is very much the latter, as he reportedly taught himself to pitch by watching YouTube rather than using a pitching coach. The results of his efforts are a low to mid 90's fastball and a very good curveball with solid command, though his changeup is still coming along. Given how much progress he made on his own, it's very easy to envision him taking another step forward with pro instruction, especially on the changeup and command fronts, and he even seems like the guy who could add a slider down the road. At 6'3", Priester is very athletic and does a very good job of getting his legs into his delivery to create velocity, and all together he is one of the more "starterish" high school pitchers in this draft. Priester has work to do, but he has a high ceiling and his feel for the game will help him make the most of his talent. He signed for $3.4 million, which was $80,000 below slot and diverted him away from a TCU commitment.
CBB-37: OF Sammy Siani (Penn Charter HS [PA], my rank: 48)
Siani hails from Pennsylvania, but he's not exactly a hometown player because he comes from the other end of the state in Philadelphia. His older brother, Mike, is currently at Class A Dayton in the Reds organization, though Sammy beat him by 72 picks after Mike signed over slot as a fourth rounder in 2018. Sammy is only 5'11" but he uses his smooth, uppercut swing to generate average power despite his size, and that should grow as he fills out his frame. That power also comes with an advanced hit tool, as Siani can make consistent hard contact from the left side of the plate and could be an all-around contributor at the plate. He's pretty fast and while he probably won't stick in center field, he should be a solid right fielder that produces some positive value out there. Overall, he projects for 15-20 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages, though as a 5'11" high schooler, he comes with his share of risk. It took $2.15 million, or $150,000 over slot, to sign him away from a Duke commitment, then he picked up two hits in ten at bats while striking out four times in his first two games the complex level Gulf Coast League.
2-57: OF Matt Gorski (Indiana, my rank: 137)
As you can tell by my ranking, I find this to be a questionable pick. Despite being a college junior, Gorski actually comes more with the risk/reward profile of a high school player. After a big sophomore season where he slashed .356/.404/.554 at Indiana, he regressed this year and dropped to .271/.374/.498 with 12 home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 62/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. The Indianapolis native comes with plenty of tools, as he shows power and stole 57 bases over three years in Bloomington, also adding in a strong arm. However, his mechanics tend to break down at times and you have to question his feel for the game, as he regularly plays below his tools. He has a long swing and still needs to add some loft to it to get to his power more regularly, but the 6'4" slugger struck out in 23.7% of his plate appearances this year and his hit tool is fringy as is. Because he's 6'4" and has both power and speed, he still retains his high upside at 21 years old, but he'll need some work. At best, Gorski could hit 20-25 home runs per season with mediocre on-base percentages and solid outfield defense, but he comes with more risk than the typical college hitter. He signed for $1 million, which was $240,000 below slot, and has two hits in fourteen at bats with seven strikeouts over his first four games at short season West Virginia, adding three walks.
CBB-72: 3B Jared Triolo (Houston, unranked)
Triolo is a fairly average player all around, but he's interesting and has some upside. In 2019, he slashed .332/.420/.512 with seven home runs and a 30/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games for the University of Houston, and that came on the heels of a solid .276/.364/.423 run through the Cape Cod League. The Austin-area native shows good feel for the barrel to go along with strong plate discipline, though his power is slightly below average at this point because his swing is more geared towards line drives. His swing may be fine as is, and that would lead to solid on-base percentages along with ten or so home runs a season, but some adjustments could help him tap the power in his 6'3" frame and get him up to 15-20 home runs annually. He's a solid-average defender at third base, and overall he projects as a fringe-regular who may more likely end up as a part time starter at the major league level. However, if he takes well to mechanical changes, he has the hitting aptitude to turn himself into a solid regular. He signed for $868,200, or $2,500 below slot, and he's slashing .217/.269/.522 with a home run and a 4/2 strikeout to walk ratio through his first six games at West Virginia.
3-95: OF Matt Fraizer (Arizona, unranked)
The Arizona Wildcats may have finished fifth in a tough Pac-12 this year with just a 15-14 in-conference record, but in the third round of the draft, Matt Fraizer was already the third Wildcat hitter drafted after Cameron Cannon (#43, Red Sox) and Nick Quintana (#47, Tigers). Fraizer slashed just .266/.352/.359 as a sophomore in 2018 then dropped to .165/.240/.187 over 31 games on the Cape, but he came out of the gate a different hitter in 2019. In March, the Fresno, California native was slashing .412/.452/.565 with a home run and a 6/6 strikeout to walk ratio through 19 games, but he broke his hand and that marked the end of his season. The Pirates obviously liked what they saw in those 19 games, and they'll hope that the breakout was for real. Fraizer has a quick, line drive swing that can spray balls around the park, and at 6'3", he should be able to tap some power at the next level. He's also fast, allowing him to impact the game in yet another way, and that makes him a solid center fielder. Given Fraizer's lack of a track record, he comes with more risk than the typical college player, but he also has a high ceiling and this pick could turn into a steal if that breakout truly was for real. He signed for $525,500, which was $85,800 below slot.
4-124: RHP J.C. Flowers (Florida State, unranked)
Flowers was both Florida State's starting center fielder and its closer, and although he slashed .268/.374/.500 with eleven home runs as a hitter this year, the Pirates look like they prefer him as a pitcher. The Jacksonville native had actually never pitched at the collegiate level prior to this season, as he broke his jaw as a sophomore and decided to take to pitching after his subsequent struggles. On the mound this year, he posted a 1.66 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 20/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 21.2 innings, also saving eleven games. He's a 6'3" righty without the typical velocity you'd like from college relievers, sitting in the low 90's, but he adds a solid hard slider and a present changeup despite being new to pitching. You'd typically think a pitcher like this would be confined to relief, but by taking him the fourth round, the Pirates must be taking into account his inexperience and his athleticism and concluding that he has a good chance to start. For now, he looks more like a back-end starter, but he definitely has the chance for more if he takes well to starting. Slot value is $460,000 and he has not signed yet.
5-154: RHP Grant Ford (Nevada, unranked)
Well, Grant Ford went unranked on both the MLB Pipeline top 200 and the Baseball America 500, and YouTube has no video on him since high school, so I'll admit I don't know much about him and I'll do my best here. He's a 6'1" righty from San Jose who posted a 2.76 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 51/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 45.2 innings for Nevada, a massive improvement over his poor 2018 season. Video from high school shows long arm action with a riding fastball, a solid changeup, and a fringy breaking ball, though he has historically struggled with his command at Nevada and seemed like he finally figured out the strike zone in 2019. He's likely a reliever at the next level and he signed for $422,500, which was $79,100 above slot, then allowed three runs over 1.2 innings in his first appearance at West Virginia.
7-214: OF Blake Sabol (Southern California, unranked)
Blake Sabol is a very talented player who hasn't quite gotten it together during his time at Southern California, and as a junior he slashed just .268/.346/.368 with three home runs and a 40/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. However, he showed what he can really do with a white hot run through the Cape Cod League over the summer, where he slashed .340/.445/.573 with seven home runs and a 21/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 37 games. Like Gorski and Triolo, he's a big guy at 6'4" but hasn't quite tapped his power as much as he should, as his mechanics get out of whack at times and he'll need a lot of refinement. There's a high ceiling here as a starting outfielder, but as a college junior, he has to make the adjustments quicker than a high schooler would. He signed for $247,500, which was $41,000 above slot, and he is slashing .227/.370/.364 with a 4/4 strikeout to walk ratio over six games at West Virginia.
9-274: SS Ethan Paul (Vanderbilt, unranked)
If you're watching the College World Series like I am as I write this, you've probably heard Ethan Paul's name as Vanderbilt's senior shortstop and three hitter. This year, he was a key cog in the Vandy offens, slashing .311/.382/.495 with nine home runs and a 64/31 strikeout to walk ratio through 70 games coming into the last game of the season. He's average across the board, showing some contact ability, mediocre but present power, and some speed. Defensively, he probably won't stick at shortstop but he'll be able to handle second base just fine, and he ultimately projects as a utility infielder. Slot value is $152,300, but as a senior who will be 23 in August, it will take less than that for him to sign.
Monday, May 20, 2019
2019 Draft Preview: High School Outfielders
This isn't a particularly deep class of high school outfielders, with the Atlanta area usually sending us a boatload but remaining quiet this year, but once you get past the top two rounds or so, more names do start to appear. Most of the better bats in this high school draft class will be found on the infield (see Bobby Witt, Brett Baty, Rece Hinds, Tyler Callihan), but it's not empty and there certainly are some headliners.
Tier I: Riley Greene, Corbin Carroll
The two headliners in this year's high school outfield class live three thousand miles apart on perfectly opposite corners of the country, and their skill sets might be just as far apart as well. Riley Greene, playing ball in Orlando and committed to Florida, is the best pure bat in the high school class save for Witt. Greene is imposing at the plate at 6'1" and gets to his plus raw power very consistently, making him as safe a bet as any high schooler to hit in pro ball. He has a big swing, but his very good approach at the plate and hand-eye coordination help him keep his swing and miss rate low, and those two traits combined should help him grow into 25-30 home run pop in the majors. Combine that with his projected high on-base percentages, and Greene should be a solid middle of the order hitter down the road. He's just so-so in the outfield, likely ending up in left field, but he won't be a liability and the added pressure on his bat won't be an issue. He'll definitely go in the top ten picks, more than likely in the top six. Seattle native Corbin Carroll is safely behind Greene on most draft boards, but he provides a very different vision of a player. At a listed 5'11" and 160 pounds, he doesn't look like an impact hitter, but he has one of the best hit tools in the country among high schoolers with an exceptional feel for both the barrel and zone that help him get on base consistently even against high-level competition. Carroll does a good job of using his load to gain ground on the ball, allowing him to drive through the ball and giving evaluators hope that he can add power down the road as he fills out. He's a good defender in center field who should be able to stick there, with his plus speed helping him track down balls in the gaps. He looks to go somewhere in the top half of the first round, though closer to the middle than the front.
Tier II: Sammy Siani, Maurice Hampton, Jerrion Ealy, Trejyn Fletcher
If Greene and Carroll were about as different as it gets, then the four players in this tier (save for Siani) are actually pretty similar. Sammy Siani, younger brother of Reds 2018 fourth rounder Mike Siani, plays ball in Philadelphia and offers an interesting tool set. He's just 5'11" but he has a smooth, uppercut swing that could produce close to average power down the road. Despite his power-oriented swing, he actually does a very good job of getting the bat on the ball consistently and catching up to good pitching, so with less of a need to worry about his strikeout rates climbing to high, he can continue focusing on trying to drive the ball into the gaps and over fences. He's pretty good defensively so that's a slight boost, and he has a fairly wide range of outcomes due to his potential power upside. He looks like a second round pick at the moment. Over in Memphis, Maurice Hampton offers some really interesting upside with his intense athleticism (he's committed to LSU to play both baseball and football) and present tools. Hampton has a quick swing and above average raw power, though like most two-sport athletes, he needs to refine his hit tool and learn to translate his batting practice power into game power. He also needs to get a little more patient at the plate, as increasing his walk rate could help him employ that SEC cornerback speed on the bases. Defensively, that speed makes him a solid center fielder, though he's raw there as well. With an August birthday, Hampton is one of the younger players in the class. which will give him some extra time to refine his game if he chooses to give up football. He looks like he could go in the comp round, but signability will make that uncertain. Interestingly, Hampton isn't the only two-way SEC recruit this year, as Jackson, Mississippi's Jerrion Ealy is committed to Ole Miss as a running back. At 5'10" and 190 pounds, he's built like a running back, too, and that athleticism makes him a really interesting baseball prospect. Ealy hits the ball hard and showed impressive feel for the barrel over the summer, but it's been a rough spring as he has shown that he has a long way to go offensively. His mechanics need to be ironed out so that he can smooth out his swing and add loft, and given his mediocre performance this spring, he comes with a lot of risk. He's better defensively than Hampton at this point, showing a better chance to stick in center field, though he's also a full year older with an August birthday. When Hampton turns 18, he'll turn 19 less than three weeks later, and he looks more like a second or third round pick, also clouded by signability concerns. Trejyn Fletcher isn't committed to an SEC school to play football, but it's a good thing we're talking about baseball because Vanderbilt has a spot waiting for him in its dugout for next season. Despite the lack of gridiron skills, Fletcher is just as interesting as Hampton and Ealy because he reclassified from a junior to a senior this year (which would be age-appropriate for him anyways), and oh yeah, he might be the best high school baseball prospect in Maine history. The Portland native is just as raw as you would expect for a kid from what I as a Virginian consider the Arctic, showing a very choppy, short swing that won't work in pro ball. That said, he's extremely athletic and has been rising on draft boards recently, shooting up potentially into the second round, and his solid glove and strong arm will buy the bat some time to develop. He has high upside and a lot of risk, but it looks like he might get drafted early enough for a team to keep him from following the path that infielder Ryan Flaherty paved from Portland to Vanderbilt.
Tier III: Chris Newell, Trey Faltine, Glenallen Hill Jr., Joshua Mears
These four don't offer quite the upside of the previous four, or if they do, they have a bit less of a chance to get there. Chris Newell, like Siani, lives in the Philadelphia area, and he actually has a fairly similar left handed swing to him. However, while Siani is currently hit over power due to his feel for the barrel, Newell is more power over hit and is already driving the ball with more authority than Siani, at least when he gets to it. There is more swing and miss in his game, giving the uppercut less of a chance to work in pro ball, and he has a fairly similar defensive profile to his crosstown Trey Faltine has one of the more interesting profiles among the guys who aren't SEC football players, as he's probably the most versatile player in the entire class. Faltine, from the Houston area, can play any position but catcher and he's also a legitimate pitching prospect, which I'll leave for a later writeup while I throw him in the outfield group for this one. Offensively, he has a great feel for the barrel with a swing that is more geared for contact than for power, and at 6'3", he could add some power down the road. He's not exceptionally fast but he can play any position, using his instincts to perform well anywhere from shortstop to center field. Despite his feel for the game, he overall lacks the current in-game impact of some of the players ahead of him, but once he decides what position he wants to play and gives up pitching (if he ends up as a position player at all), he should be able to channel his focus into becoming a top of the order hitter with high on-base percentages, some power, and average to slightly above average speed. He looks like a third or fourth rounder at first glance but could sneak into the second round. Glenallen Hill Jr. is the son of former big leaguer Glenallen Hill, and the Santa Cruz native has used his big, powerful swing to put himself on the map as a potential power hitter despite standing just 5'9". He's not too much unlike the Rangers' Willie Calhoun in that regard, though he's faster, can switch hit, and is limited to the outfield defensively. Hill's swing is a thing of beauty, but he has struggled with contact at times and because of his size, the power plays closer to average. Those two issues combined make him more of a third or fourth round prospect, though he has some real upside if he can find a way to get to his power consistently and use his speed to play good defense in the outfield. Lastly, Seattle area-native Joshua Mears doesn't quite match his cross-town opponent Corbin Carroll, but he's got some pop coming from a 6'3", 235 pound frame. Combine that with a good swing that generates plenty of whip and loft, and that will get scouts' attention. He has some swing and miss in his game and he's mediocre defensively, but the upside at the plate if he can gain a better approach at the plate will make him a solid pick in the third or fourth rounds.
Others: Hylan Hall, Dasan Brown, James Beard, Hudson Head
Tier I: Riley Greene, Corbin Carroll
The two headliners in this year's high school outfield class live three thousand miles apart on perfectly opposite corners of the country, and their skill sets might be just as far apart as well. Riley Greene, playing ball in Orlando and committed to Florida, is the best pure bat in the high school class save for Witt. Greene is imposing at the plate at 6'1" and gets to his plus raw power very consistently, making him as safe a bet as any high schooler to hit in pro ball. He has a big swing, but his very good approach at the plate and hand-eye coordination help him keep his swing and miss rate low, and those two traits combined should help him grow into 25-30 home run pop in the majors. Combine that with his projected high on-base percentages, and Greene should be a solid middle of the order hitter down the road. He's just so-so in the outfield, likely ending up in left field, but he won't be a liability and the added pressure on his bat won't be an issue. He'll definitely go in the top ten picks, more than likely in the top six. Seattle native Corbin Carroll is safely behind Greene on most draft boards, but he provides a very different vision of a player. At a listed 5'11" and 160 pounds, he doesn't look like an impact hitter, but he has one of the best hit tools in the country among high schoolers with an exceptional feel for both the barrel and zone that help him get on base consistently even against high-level competition. Carroll does a good job of using his load to gain ground on the ball, allowing him to drive through the ball and giving evaluators hope that he can add power down the road as he fills out. He's a good defender in center field who should be able to stick there, with his plus speed helping him track down balls in the gaps. He looks to go somewhere in the top half of the first round, though closer to the middle than the front.
Tier II: Sammy Siani, Maurice Hampton, Jerrion Ealy, Trejyn Fletcher
If Greene and Carroll were about as different as it gets, then the four players in this tier (save for Siani) are actually pretty similar. Sammy Siani, younger brother of Reds 2018 fourth rounder Mike Siani, plays ball in Philadelphia and offers an interesting tool set. He's just 5'11" but he has a smooth, uppercut swing that could produce close to average power down the road. Despite his power-oriented swing, he actually does a very good job of getting the bat on the ball consistently and catching up to good pitching, so with less of a need to worry about his strikeout rates climbing to high, he can continue focusing on trying to drive the ball into the gaps and over fences. He's pretty good defensively so that's a slight boost, and he has a fairly wide range of outcomes due to his potential power upside. He looks like a second round pick at the moment. Over in Memphis, Maurice Hampton offers some really interesting upside with his intense athleticism (he's committed to LSU to play both baseball and football) and present tools. Hampton has a quick swing and above average raw power, though like most two-sport athletes, he needs to refine his hit tool and learn to translate his batting practice power into game power. He also needs to get a little more patient at the plate, as increasing his walk rate could help him employ that SEC cornerback speed on the bases. Defensively, that speed makes him a solid center fielder, though he's raw there as well. With an August birthday, Hampton is one of the younger players in the class. which will give him some extra time to refine his game if he chooses to give up football. He looks like he could go in the comp round, but signability will make that uncertain. Interestingly, Hampton isn't the only two-way SEC recruit this year, as Jackson, Mississippi's Jerrion Ealy is committed to Ole Miss as a running back. At 5'10" and 190 pounds, he's built like a running back, too, and that athleticism makes him a really interesting baseball prospect. Ealy hits the ball hard and showed impressive feel for the barrel over the summer, but it's been a rough spring as he has shown that he has a long way to go offensively. His mechanics need to be ironed out so that he can smooth out his swing and add loft, and given his mediocre performance this spring, he comes with a lot of risk. He's better defensively than Hampton at this point, showing a better chance to stick in center field, though he's also a full year older with an August birthday. When Hampton turns 18, he'll turn 19 less than three weeks later, and he looks more like a second or third round pick, also clouded by signability concerns. Trejyn Fletcher isn't committed to an SEC school to play football, but it's a good thing we're talking about baseball because Vanderbilt has a spot waiting for him in its dugout for next season. Despite the lack of gridiron skills, Fletcher is just as interesting as Hampton and Ealy because he reclassified from a junior to a senior this year (which would be age-appropriate for him anyways), and oh yeah, he might be the best high school baseball prospect in Maine history. The Portland native is just as raw as you would expect for a kid from what I as a Virginian consider the Arctic, showing a very choppy, short swing that won't work in pro ball. That said, he's extremely athletic and has been rising on draft boards recently, shooting up potentially into the second round, and his solid glove and strong arm will buy the bat some time to develop. He has high upside and a lot of risk, but it looks like he might get drafted early enough for a team to keep him from following the path that infielder Ryan Flaherty paved from Portland to Vanderbilt.
Tier III: Chris Newell, Trey Faltine, Glenallen Hill Jr., Joshua Mears
These four don't offer quite the upside of the previous four, or if they do, they have a bit less of a chance to get there. Chris Newell, like Siani, lives in the Philadelphia area, and he actually has a fairly similar left handed swing to him. However, while Siani is currently hit over power due to his feel for the barrel, Newell is more power over hit and is already driving the ball with more authority than Siani, at least when he gets to it. There is more swing and miss in his game, giving the uppercut less of a chance to work in pro ball, and he has a fairly similar defensive profile to his crosstown Trey Faltine has one of the more interesting profiles among the guys who aren't SEC football players, as he's probably the most versatile player in the entire class. Faltine, from the Houston area, can play any position but catcher and he's also a legitimate pitching prospect, which I'll leave for a later writeup while I throw him in the outfield group for this one. Offensively, he has a great feel for the barrel with a swing that is more geared for contact than for power, and at 6'3", he could add some power down the road. He's not exceptionally fast but he can play any position, using his instincts to perform well anywhere from shortstop to center field. Despite his feel for the game, he overall lacks the current in-game impact of some of the players ahead of him, but once he decides what position he wants to play and gives up pitching (if he ends up as a position player at all), he should be able to channel his focus into becoming a top of the order hitter with high on-base percentages, some power, and average to slightly above average speed. He looks like a third or fourth rounder at first glance but could sneak into the second round. Glenallen Hill Jr. is the son of former big leaguer Glenallen Hill, and the Santa Cruz native has used his big, powerful swing to put himself on the map as a potential power hitter despite standing just 5'9". He's not too much unlike the Rangers' Willie Calhoun in that regard, though he's faster, can switch hit, and is limited to the outfield defensively. Hill's swing is a thing of beauty, but he has struggled with contact at times and because of his size, the power plays closer to average. Those two issues combined make him more of a third or fourth round prospect, though he has some real upside if he can find a way to get to his power consistently and use his speed to play good defense in the outfield. Lastly, Seattle area-native Joshua Mears doesn't quite match his cross-town opponent Corbin Carroll, but he's got some pop coming from a 6'3", 235 pound frame. Combine that with a good swing that generates plenty of whip and loft, and that will get scouts' attention. He has some swing and miss in his game and he's mediocre defensively, but the upside at the plate if he can gain a better approach at the plate will make him a solid pick in the third or fourth rounds.
Others: Hylan Hall, Dasan Brown, James Beard, Hudson Head
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