Fortunately, the Angels' farm system is in a much better place than it was just a few years ago, when it was the worst in baseball. Now, headliner Jo Adell has given it a facelift and there are some nice names behind him, but it still lacks much impact talent once you get past the first few names on the list. It's an offense-heavy list with a lot of high-upside bats scattered throughout, with the few notable arms in the system mostly concentrated in the upper-minors.
Affiliates: AAA Salt Lake City Bees, AA Mobile BayBears, High A Inland Empire 66ers, Class A Burlington Bees, Rookie level Orem Owlz, complex level AZL and DSL Angels
The Headliner: OF Jo Adell
Drafted in the first round (tenth overall) out of a Louisville-area high school in 2017, 19 year old Jo Adell has already made a name for himself on a national scale and is arguably one of the top ten prospects in baseball after a huge 2018. Over 99 games, he slashed .290/.355/.543 with 20 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 111/32 strikeout to walk ratio across three levels, reaching all the way up to AA Mobile as a teenager. He shows power, speed, the ability to get on base, and good defense in the outfield, so the only knock on his game is some swing and miss. Otherwise, he looks like a future All Star that could be an annual 30 homer, 20 stolen base threat, and it doesn't take a huge stretch of the imagination to imagine him holding up an AL MVP Award. If the Angels can figure out a way to keep Mike Trout, a core of Trout, Adell, and Shohei Ohtani will be fun to watch.
Other High-Upside Hitters: OF Brandon Marsh, 2B Jahmai Jones, OF D'Shawn Knowles, SS Kevin Maitan, OF Jordyn Adams, and SS Nonie Williams
Adell isn't the only high-upside hitter in this system, though many of the others have been disappointing and look farther from reaching their lofty ceilings than originally thought. We'll start with 20 year old Brandon Marsh, who hasn't been a total disappointment. The outfielder slashed .295/.390/.470 in 34 games at Class A Burlington, but put up a more pedestrian .256/.348/.385 line in 93 games at hitter-friendly High A Inland Empire, combining for ten home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 158/73 strikeout to walk ratio. Marsh is still young and it's nice to see the power/speed/patience combination as a hitter, but the strikeouts are a little high and we're still waiting on a breakout. If anything, I do think the power will come along, though I'm not sold on the contact. 21 year old Jahmai Jones was cruising through the low to mid minors until his bat regressed in 2018, where he slashed .239/.337/.380 with ten home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 114/67 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games between Inland Empire and AA Mobile. If you can get past the handedness, his offensive profile is not too dissimilar to Marsh's, as both show moderate power, good speed, and patience at the plate while struggling a bit with the strikeout. I think Marsh has a more power potential and therefore more breakout potential while Jones is a little faster and has a better track record, and on defense Jones plays second base. Overall, he looks like a utility infielder at this point but could surprise if he rights the ship in AA next year. 18 year old Kevin Maitan has been a big disappointment so far, and that's difficult to do at that age. Regarded as potentially the next Chipper Jones when he signed for over $4 million with the Braves in 2016, he slashed .248/.306/.397 with eight home runs and a 66/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games at rookie level Orem last year, showing the prodigious raw power that originally got him that big signing bonus but struggling to make contact and get to his power. He has plenty of time to right the ship and still has some of the best upside in the system, but he's going to take longer to develop and has a lower chance of reaching that ceiling than originally expected. 19 year old Jordyn Adams was a first rounder (17th overall) out of high school in the Raleigh area in 2018, and he hit .267/.361/.381 with no homers but five stolen bases in 29 games between complex ball and Orem this year. He's raw, with his best attribute being his blinding speed (he could have been a wide receiver at UNC), but he has the chance to grow under pro coaching and become a leadoff man with some pop. However, he has a long way to get there and first has to prove he can make contact against higher level pitching. Turning the tide a little bit, 17 year old D'Shawn Knowles has actually been a pleasant surprise so far, slashing .311/.391/.464 with five home runs and nine stolen bases across 58 games between complex ball and Orem in 2018, showing an advanced bat for someone so young and holding up well in his first taste of pro pitching. Knowles is known more as a strong defensive outfielder with a raw bat, but it might not be as raw as expected and he has a chance to be one of the better prospects in this system come next season. Watch this name. Lastly, 20 year old Nonie Williams has been a huge disappointment since being drafted in the third round (96th overall) out of the Kansas City area in 2016. Through three seasons, he still has not gotten above Orem and has slashed .219/.279/.301 with three home runs and 20 stolen bases over 121 games, his 143/36 strikeout to walk ratio holding him down. The Angels knew he was raw when they drafted him, but he's going to have to right the ship soon if he wants to become the all-around player the Angels thought they drafted.
High Floor Hitters: 1B Matt Thaiss, SS Luis Rengifo, OF Michael Hermosillo, OF Brennan Lund, SS Leonardo Rivas, SS Jeremiah Jackson, and SS Livan Soto
The players on this list don't necessarily have star upside, but they have less bust risk than on the previous list. Some have a chance to become starters, but ultimately they're likely to bench assets. Most of these guys are naturally closer to the majors but some are a little farther down. 23 year old Matt Thaiss has the most name recognition as a first round pick (16th overall) out of UVA in 2016, showing some power and plate discipline but not doing what he needs to do to stand out as a first base only prospect. In 2018, he slashed .280/.335/.467 with 16 home runs and a 103/44 strikeout to walk ratio at AA Mobile and AAA Salt Lake City, his walk rate dropping from 2017 but otherwise not losing any production. The Angels want to project him as Albert Pujols' replacement at first base, but I think he'll end up somewhere around a league average hitter, which is okay for most positions but not great for a first baseman. 21 year old Luis Rengifo is also knocking on the door as a potential utility player, having slashed .299/.399/.452 with seven home runs, 41 stolen bases, and a very nice 75/75 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games between High A Inland Empire, Mobile, and Salt Lake City. The bat is just a little light, but the rest of his game is coming along nicely with his plate discipline, speed, and defense all looking above average. Second base might be his best bet to start, but I think he will at least be a useful utility man. 23 year old outfielders Michael Hermosillo and Brennon Lund are looking to capture fourth outfield spots, with the former a little closer than the latter. Hermosillo slashed .267/.357/.480 with 12 home runs and ten stolen bases in 68 games at Salt Lake City, then .211/.274/.333 in 31 MLB games. He strikes out a bit too much but he has some speed and some pop. Lund spent the year at Mobile, slashing .264/.343/.404 with eight home runs and 21 stolen bases across 100 games, showing a similar profile to Hermosillo. Both show some power, speed, and patience, though both also tend to swing and miss and don't have the power to make up for that. Lastly, we have three low-level shortstop prospects in 21 year old Leonardo Rivas and 18 year olds Jeremiah Jackson and Livan Soto. As you would expect, Rivas is the most advanced, having slashed .234/.354/.333 with five homers, 16 stolen bases, and an interesting 140/84 strikeout to walk ratio, mostly at Class A Burlington. The bat is very light and he will likely never be a big league starter, but he walks so much that we just can't ignore him for now. Jackson was just taken in the second round (57th overall) out of high school in Mobile, and he slashed .254/.314/.491 with seven home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 59/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games between complex ball and rookie level Orem. He has the highest upside of this trio and is the most likely to become a starter, potentially replacing Andrelton Simmons down the road, but he has a long way to go and he profiles more as a solid utility man than as a starter. He does have some power and plate discipline but may have to move off shortstop and instead compete at third base. Lastly, Soto's profile resembles Rivas' more than it does Jackson's, as he slashed .291/.385/.349 with no home runs, nine stolen bases, and an even 24/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games. Like Rivas, he has a light bat with no power but also an excellent eye at the plate. He also plays better defense than Rivas and is younger, and I'd argue he has a higher ceiling, but he'll have to show at least some sock in the bat to move up.
Notable Pitchers: Griffin Canning, Jose Suarez, Patrick Sandoval, Jose Soriano, Stiward Aquino, and Chris Rodriguez
The Angels are very shallow in pitching prospects, though they do have three that stand out as potential impact arms and three more that are a long way off and could develop into such. These six are pretty good prospects in their own right, but there's a drop-off afterwards and there aren't too many other candidates to join this list. 22 year old Griffin Canning looks to have the best combination of floor and ceiling at this point, coming off a year where he posted a 3.65 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 125/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.1 innings, jumping all the way from High A Inland Empire to AAA Salt Lake City. His numbers dipped progressively over each level, as is natural, and he'll probably need more time at AAA next season, but he has moved through the minor leagues very quickly for a 2017 draftee and could be a mid rotation starter by mid-season. The ceiling isn't very high with him, but he's not just your run of the mill, back-end starter type. 20 year old Jose Suarez doesn't get as much attention as perhaps he should, reaching AAA at a very young age and holding his own there. Like Canning, he pitched at Inland Empire, AA Mobile, and Salt Lake City in 2018 and his numbers progressively dipped, but he's almost two years younger and posted a 3.92 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 142/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 innings. He's just 5'10" and throws in the low 90's, but the lefty is very advanced for his age and looks like a safe bet to be a #4ish starter, someone who can get outs and throw strikes consistently. He won't be an ace, but he should be a productive, long-term starting option. 22 year old Patrick Sandoval came over in the Martin Maldonado trade, and he had a huge breakout year in 2018. The 6'3" lefty went 11-1 with a 2.06 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 145/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 122.1 innings despite pitching for four different minor league teams across three levels from Class A up to AA. Like Suarez, he doesn't throw too hard, but he commands his pitches very well and mixes up his deep arsenal well enough to miss a lot of bats and induce a lot of weak contact. He probably has a higher ceiling than both Canning and Suarez, and though he doesn't quite have the same floor, he could join them to make a very solid back three of the rotation behind whoever ends up at the front. 20 year olds Jose Soriano and Chris Rodriguez as well as 19 year old Stiward Aquino haven't done much yet, but they have breakout potential in a system that lacks many pitching options. Soriano is the most advanced, having put up a 4.47 ERA, a 1.49 WHIP, and a 42/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 46.1 innings at Class A Burlington, showing the building blocks for success though he has not put it together yet. He throws hard, up to 97 at times, and his skinny 6'3" frame projects more velocity, but he struggles with command and has not yet refined his secondary pitches. Aquino put up a 3.99 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 31/13 strikeout to walk ratio across 29.1 innings in complex ball, obviously a long way off but showing perhaps the best ceiling in the organization. He's a 6'6" righty with a mid 90's fastball and a curveball that's coming along well, so he just needs to keep on the development arc he's currently on. He might never get above A ball, but keep an eye on him. Lastly, Rodriguez missed the season with injuries but shows a good combination of stuff and command, and he could develop into a Griffin Canning type down the road if he can get healthy and get consistent. Obviously, he's a long way off as well.
Showing posts with label Griffin Canning. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Griffin Canning. Show all posts
Sunday, November 18, 2018
Sunday, June 25, 2017
2017 Draft Review: Los Angeles Angels
First 5 rounds: Jo Adell (1-10), Griffin Canning (2-47), Jacob Pearson (3-85), John Swanda (4-115), Joseph Booker (5-145).
Also notable: Jonah Todd (6-175), Brett Hanewich (9-265), Keith Rogalla (12-355), Mitchell Traver (20-595).
The Angels took two exact-opposite players with their first two picks, nabbing a high-upside, high-risk, toolsy high schooler with their first pick before drafting a high-floor, safe bet college starter with their second. While the Angels farm system has dramatically improved from "literally empty" to "well, at least they're not the Marlins or Diamondbacks," there is still plenty of work to be done in making it into something respectable, and they did a decent job of that with this draft. Nothing really stands out, though they did take six right handed pitchers in seven picks from the fourth through the tenth rounds.
1-10: CF Jo Adell (my rank: 12)
Upon signing, Adell immediately became the Angels' top prospect since either Mike Trout, which probably says more about the state of the Angels' farm system than it does about Adell, who is just 18. Adell is raw and toolsy, showing the combination of plus power and plus speed that teams love. He led all high schoolers with 25 home runs this year, but whether those tools can translate up remains to be seen. He has some significant swing and miss in his game, and he'll take a fairly long time to reach the majors, but the upside is tremendous. He signed an at-slot deal of just under $4.4 million.
2-47: RHP Griffin Canning (my rank: 18)
Canning was viewed as a potential top-20 pick right up until the weekend before the draft, when something apparently was wrong with his physical and pushed him down the draft. It's not publicly known exactly what the injury is/could be, but it apparently stemmed from his MRI, which could mean any range of things. The UCLA ace, who grew up just south of Anaheim in Rancho Santa Margarita, will join his hometown team after a very successful three year career for the Bruins. He had his best season yet as a junior this year, going 7-4 with a 2.34 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, striking out 140 batters in 119 innings while walking just 32. At 6'2", he's not a big guy but not quite undersized, and he has a three pitch mix that he commands well. The fastball sits in the low 90's, the curveball has big break, and the changeup seems to disappear as it gets to the plate, giving him close to a major league arsenal already. The upside here isn't great, as he likely will never be more than a mid-rotation starter, but he has one of the highest floors in this draft (aside from injury concerns). He signed an at-slot deal of just under $1.5 million.
3-85: OF Jacob Pearson (my rank: 80)
Pearson is another toolsy high school outfielder, though he lacks Adell's upside. He generates good bat speed and power from the left side, but the swing is a little bit long and could lead to contact concerns. He's fast, too, but unlike Adell, his arm is below average. If Pearson's hit tool can come along, he could be a solid starting option in the big league outfield, but right now he looks more like a fourth outfielder. He has not signed.
12-355: RHP Keith Rogalla (unranked)
Rogalla just finished a solid if unspectacular three year career at Creighton, where he went 11-10 overall with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP primarily as a starter, but most see him as a reliever going forward. There, his low to mid 90's fastball could sit in the mid 90's, and his curveball could tighten into an above average pitch. He walked 35 batters in 71.1 innings this year, so he'll need to improve his command to advance. Rogalla has not signed.
Others: 4th rounder John Swanda has a lot of upside, but the package is incomplete at this point for the high school pitcher out of Des Moines. He has an average three pitch arsenal, but he commands it well and could turn into a mid-rotation starter when all is said and done. 6th rounder Jonah Todd played one year at Auburn after transferring from Marion Military Institute, where he showcased excellent on-base abilities and now power, slashing .376/.460/.471 with no home runs. He did knock 13 doubles and five triples while stealing nine bases and walking more (12.8%) than he struck out (9.7%). He's a fun success story, coming from that military background before working at a Walmart over the summer so he could afford to play at Auburn, where he made the team as a walk-on. 9th rounder Brett Hanewich, out of Stanford, is a bit of a wild card, as he has been a major part of the Cardinal pitching staff when healthy, but that has been less and less often as his career has progressed. He has touched 96 before, but more often sits in the low 90's, and he doesn't have great command, and his slider is just as inconsistent. There is still hope for him as a starter, but he would probably be best off as a reliever in pro ball. 20th rounder Mitchell Traver, one of the more recognizable named in college baseball after being a part of the TCU pitching staff for what seems like forever, is already 23 but can provide value in the 20th round. A redshirt senior who came to school way back in 2013, he has pitched in 37 games (33 starts) over the years, going 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP for the Horned Frogs. He has a long medical history that has caused him to miss time for elbow, shoulder, and back injuries, but his potentially plus fastball/slider combo makes him a solid prospect as a reliever. This is the fourth time (!) he's been drafted, having gone in the 39th round in 2012, the 28th round in 2015, the 17th round in 2016, and the 20th round this year. No matter how his career turns out, he won't be the redshirt senior out of TCU to make an MLB impact; Cardinals third baseman Matt Carpenter was drafted as a fifth year Horned Frog as well.
Also notable: Jonah Todd (6-175), Brett Hanewich (9-265), Keith Rogalla (12-355), Mitchell Traver (20-595).
The Angels took two exact-opposite players with their first two picks, nabbing a high-upside, high-risk, toolsy high schooler with their first pick before drafting a high-floor, safe bet college starter with their second. While the Angels farm system has dramatically improved from "literally empty" to "well, at least they're not the Marlins or Diamondbacks," there is still plenty of work to be done in making it into something respectable, and they did a decent job of that with this draft. Nothing really stands out, though they did take six right handed pitchers in seven picks from the fourth through the tenth rounds.
1-10: CF Jo Adell (my rank: 12)
Upon signing, Adell immediately became the Angels' top prospect since either Mike Trout, which probably says more about the state of the Angels' farm system than it does about Adell, who is just 18. Adell is raw and toolsy, showing the combination of plus power and plus speed that teams love. He led all high schoolers with 25 home runs this year, but whether those tools can translate up remains to be seen. He has some significant swing and miss in his game, and he'll take a fairly long time to reach the majors, but the upside is tremendous. He signed an at-slot deal of just under $4.4 million.
2-47: RHP Griffin Canning (my rank: 18)
Canning was viewed as a potential top-20 pick right up until the weekend before the draft, when something apparently was wrong with his physical and pushed him down the draft. It's not publicly known exactly what the injury is/could be, but it apparently stemmed from his MRI, which could mean any range of things. The UCLA ace, who grew up just south of Anaheim in Rancho Santa Margarita, will join his hometown team after a very successful three year career for the Bruins. He had his best season yet as a junior this year, going 7-4 with a 2.34 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, striking out 140 batters in 119 innings while walking just 32. At 6'2", he's not a big guy but not quite undersized, and he has a three pitch mix that he commands well. The fastball sits in the low 90's, the curveball has big break, and the changeup seems to disappear as it gets to the plate, giving him close to a major league arsenal already. The upside here isn't great, as he likely will never be more than a mid-rotation starter, but he has one of the highest floors in this draft (aside from injury concerns). He signed an at-slot deal of just under $1.5 million.
3-85: OF Jacob Pearson (my rank: 80)
Pearson is another toolsy high school outfielder, though he lacks Adell's upside. He generates good bat speed and power from the left side, but the swing is a little bit long and could lead to contact concerns. He's fast, too, but unlike Adell, his arm is below average. If Pearson's hit tool can come along, he could be a solid starting option in the big league outfield, but right now he looks more like a fourth outfielder. He has not signed.
12-355: RHP Keith Rogalla (unranked)
Rogalla just finished a solid if unspectacular three year career at Creighton, where he went 11-10 overall with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP primarily as a starter, but most see him as a reliever going forward. There, his low to mid 90's fastball could sit in the mid 90's, and his curveball could tighten into an above average pitch. He walked 35 batters in 71.1 innings this year, so he'll need to improve his command to advance. Rogalla has not signed.
Others: 4th rounder John Swanda has a lot of upside, but the package is incomplete at this point for the high school pitcher out of Des Moines. He has an average three pitch arsenal, but he commands it well and could turn into a mid-rotation starter when all is said and done. 6th rounder Jonah Todd played one year at Auburn after transferring from Marion Military Institute, where he showcased excellent on-base abilities and now power, slashing .376/.460/.471 with no home runs. He did knock 13 doubles and five triples while stealing nine bases and walking more (12.8%) than he struck out (9.7%). He's a fun success story, coming from that military background before working at a Walmart over the summer so he could afford to play at Auburn, where he made the team as a walk-on. 9th rounder Brett Hanewich, out of Stanford, is a bit of a wild card, as he has been a major part of the Cardinal pitching staff when healthy, but that has been less and less often as his career has progressed. He has touched 96 before, but more often sits in the low 90's, and he doesn't have great command, and his slider is just as inconsistent. There is still hope for him as a starter, but he would probably be best off as a reliever in pro ball. 20th rounder Mitchell Traver, one of the more recognizable named in college baseball after being a part of the TCU pitching staff for what seems like forever, is already 23 but can provide value in the 20th round. A redshirt senior who came to school way back in 2013, he has pitched in 37 games (33 starts) over the years, going 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP for the Horned Frogs. He has a long medical history that has caused him to miss time for elbow, shoulder, and back injuries, but his potentially plus fastball/slider combo makes him a solid prospect as a reliever. This is the fourth time (!) he's been drafted, having gone in the 39th round in 2012, the 28th round in 2015, the 17th round in 2016, and the 20th round this year. No matter how his career turns out, he won't be the redshirt senior out of TCU to make an MLB impact; Cardinals third baseman Matt Carpenter was drafted as a fifth year Horned Frog as well.
Friday, June 9, 2017
2017 Draft Demographics: Safe Bet College Starters
1st Tier: Brendan McKay, Alex Faedo
2nd Tier: Griffin Canning, David Peterson, Seth Romero, Wil Crowe
3rd Tier: Jake Thompson, Will Gaddis, Spencer Howard, Zac Lowther, Keegan Thompson
Others: Charlie Barnes
Also in this category: Luke Heimlich
This isn't a particularly wide-ranging demographic, so we can focus a little more on each individual player. These guys won't be aces, starting pitchers of any sort are extremely valuable, and these guys are as safe a bet as any to become just that. They have proven track records and give you a much better idea of who they are. You may recognize two big wild cards on here in Romero and Heimlich, but if you focus on their on-field abilities, they fit in this profile.
Tier I (McKay, Faedo)
Brendan McKay the pitcher (not to be confused with his alter ego, Brendan McKay the hitter) may have the highest floor in this whole draft. If drafted as a pitcher, he's a pretty safe bet to at least pitch effectively somewhere in a major league rotation. The lefty throws in the low to mid 90's early in games before tapering off as the game goes by, but he should be able to fix that if he focuses solely on pitching, and he still gets the job done when his fastball is sitting 88-89. He also has one of the best curveballs in the class, with big breaking action that generates plenty of swings and misses. Alex Faedo, who is three inches taller than McKay at 6'5" but throws right handed, has had erratic fastball velocity this spring after fall knee surgeries, but still fits well in this demographic. Before the surgeries, he could dial his fastball into the mid 90's regularly, though he sat in the low 90's at the beginning of the spring before bumping his velocity back up gradually. Like McKay's curveball, Faedo's slider profiles as among the best in the class, behind perhaps only that of J.B. Bukauskas. With a decent changeup, solid control, and a strong track record in the SEC, Faedo will almost certainly end up in an MLB rotation.
Tier II (Canning, Peterson, Romero, Crowe)
Two of these players have raised their profiles this spring, while two have hurt them. Griffin Canning was considered a possible first round pick but more likely a supplemental or second rounder, while David Peterson wasn't even in the first round conversation. With strong springs, both will likely be taken in the first 20 picks. Scouts have always loved Canning's advanced feel for pitching, but they wanted him to improve on his good-not-great Pac-12 numbers. That he did, dropping his ERA from 3.70 as a sophomore to 2.34 as a junior while bumping up his strikeout percentage from a solid 20.5% to an excellent 29.4%. Meanwhile, Peterson overhauled his mechanics, and the results were terrific. His 140/15 strikeout to walk ratio was one of the most eye-popping stats in college baseball this year, and it paired nicely with his 2.51 ERA. Both Canning and Peterson throw in the low 90's with full arsenals, and while Canning has a much better curveball, Peterson's slider tops Canning's. Canning also has the better changeup of the two. The left handed Peterson (6'6", 240 lbs) is much bigger than the right handed Canning (6'1", 170 lbs), though Canning has the advantage of being eight months younger. Both pitchers will likely come off the board somewhere in the 12-20 range, and any team that considers one will consider the other. Now, Seth Romero isn't really a safe bet at all when you consider his makeup issues, which ended up getting him booted from his college team this year, but the on-field profile is as safe a bet as any, save for McKay. As long as he keeps up with his conditioning (reportedly an issue during his time at the University of Houston), he can attack hitters with a power three pitch arsenal, coming in with a low to mid 90's fastball, a plus slider that ranks behind only Bukauskas and Faedo in the college ranks, and an above average changeup. Coming from a durable, 6'3", left handed package, that's the stuff top ten picks are made of if they don't get themselves kicked off their teams. Lastly for this tier, there is Wil Crowe, the big bodied righty who hasn't dominated the SEC the way some would have hoped this season. After sitting out what would have been his junior season due to Tommy John surgery last year, he is an older prospect, but there is a really intriguing package here. His sinking, low to mid 90's fastball sets up the rest of his full arsenal, with his curveball, slider, and changeup all grading out as above average. He got hit harder as the season wore on, meaning he may not be fully recovered from surgery, but if you can look past that as well as his age, you have a back-end starter here with a relatively high floor.
Tier III (J. Thompson, Gaddis, Howard, Lowther, K. Thompson)
Luke Heimlich would have ranked right at the front of this tier, but it recently came out in the news that he is a registered level one sex offender in Washington, as he sexually molested a six year old family member when he was fifteen years old. This has, naturally, severely damaged or even destroyed his draft stock, pushing him from a likely top 50 pick to one who may not be drafted at all. Heimlich is the best pitcher on the best team in college baseball, Oregon State, having gone 11-1 with a 0.76 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP, striking out 128 batters in 118.1 innings over 16 starts. Anyways, let's move on to his teammate, Jake Thompson. Thompson, a redshirt junior who is already 22, has matched his teammate almost pitch for pitch, going 13-0 with a 1.30 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP while striking out 106 batters in 110.2 innings, 24.9% in all. He is currently pitching against Vanderbilt in place of Heimlich as I write this, so those numbers will change. Thompson has taken a huge step forward this year, bumping his fastball into the mid 90's with a solid slider and usable changeup. The lack of a track record makes some scouts nervous to use a second round pick on him, but he'll fit nicely in the third round. Will Gaddis, Furman's ace, has a very high floor but a low ceiling. He has dominated the Southern Conference (1.89 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 89/15 K/BB) with a fairly ordinary arsenal, led by a sinking low 90's fastball and a solid changeup. His breaking pitches aren't quite as good, and he profiles like a smaller Wil Crowe. Spencer Howard, a former walk-on at Cal Poly, has dominated in his two years on campus and profiles well as a back-end starter with his full arsenal, coming with a higher ceiling than Gaddis but a lower floor due to a shorter track record and less advanced command. Like Gaddis and Howard, Zac Lowther has dominated at a mid-major school, putting up a 2.92 ERA, but more notably, a 35.9% strikeout rate for Xavier this season. He's not your typical strikeout artist, though, as his upper 80's fastball is the slowest on this list but plays up due to advanced command and running movement. Combine that with a decent arsenal overall, and he's a left handed Gaddis with less velocity. Lastly, Keegan Thompson is another 22 year old, but he has the best secondary stuff in Tier III with an excellent curveball and a good changeup. With his solid command and low 90's fastball, he has the highest floor in this tier, but Tommy John surgery forced him to miss the 2016 season.
2nd Tier: Griffin Canning, David Peterson, Seth Romero, Wil Crowe
3rd Tier: Jake Thompson, Will Gaddis, Spencer Howard, Zac Lowther, Keegan Thompson
Others: Charlie Barnes
Also in this category: Luke Heimlich
This isn't a particularly wide-ranging demographic, so we can focus a little more on each individual player. These guys won't be aces, starting pitchers of any sort are extremely valuable, and these guys are as safe a bet as any to become just that. They have proven track records and give you a much better idea of who they are. You may recognize two big wild cards on here in Romero and Heimlich, but if you focus on their on-field abilities, they fit in this profile.
Tier I (McKay, Faedo)
Brendan McKay the pitcher (not to be confused with his alter ego, Brendan McKay the hitter) may have the highest floor in this whole draft. If drafted as a pitcher, he's a pretty safe bet to at least pitch effectively somewhere in a major league rotation. The lefty throws in the low to mid 90's early in games before tapering off as the game goes by, but he should be able to fix that if he focuses solely on pitching, and he still gets the job done when his fastball is sitting 88-89. He also has one of the best curveballs in the class, with big breaking action that generates plenty of swings and misses. Alex Faedo, who is three inches taller than McKay at 6'5" but throws right handed, has had erratic fastball velocity this spring after fall knee surgeries, but still fits well in this demographic. Before the surgeries, he could dial his fastball into the mid 90's regularly, though he sat in the low 90's at the beginning of the spring before bumping his velocity back up gradually. Like McKay's curveball, Faedo's slider profiles as among the best in the class, behind perhaps only that of J.B. Bukauskas. With a decent changeup, solid control, and a strong track record in the SEC, Faedo will almost certainly end up in an MLB rotation.
Tier II (Canning, Peterson, Romero, Crowe)
Two of these players have raised their profiles this spring, while two have hurt them. Griffin Canning was considered a possible first round pick but more likely a supplemental or second rounder, while David Peterson wasn't even in the first round conversation. With strong springs, both will likely be taken in the first 20 picks. Scouts have always loved Canning's advanced feel for pitching, but they wanted him to improve on his good-not-great Pac-12 numbers. That he did, dropping his ERA from 3.70 as a sophomore to 2.34 as a junior while bumping up his strikeout percentage from a solid 20.5% to an excellent 29.4%. Meanwhile, Peterson overhauled his mechanics, and the results were terrific. His 140/15 strikeout to walk ratio was one of the most eye-popping stats in college baseball this year, and it paired nicely with his 2.51 ERA. Both Canning and Peterson throw in the low 90's with full arsenals, and while Canning has a much better curveball, Peterson's slider tops Canning's. Canning also has the better changeup of the two. The left handed Peterson (6'6", 240 lbs) is much bigger than the right handed Canning (6'1", 170 lbs), though Canning has the advantage of being eight months younger. Both pitchers will likely come off the board somewhere in the 12-20 range, and any team that considers one will consider the other. Now, Seth Romero isn't really a safe bet at all when you consider his makeup issues, which ended up getting him booted from his college team this year, but the on-field profile is as safe a bet as any, save for McKay. As long as he keeps up with his conditioning (reportedly an issue during his time at the University of Houston), he can attack hitters with a power three pitch arsenal, coming in with a low to mid 90's fastball, a plus slider that ranks behind only Bukauskas and Faedo in the college ranks, and an above average changeup. Coming from a durable, 6'3", left handed package, that's the stuff top ten picks are made of if they don't get themselves kicked off their teams. Lastly for this tier, there is Wil Crowe, the big bodied righty who hasn't dominated the SEC the way some would have hoped this season. After sitting out what would have been his junior season due to Tommy John surgery last year, he is an older prospect, but there is a really intriguing package here. His sinking, low to mid 90's fastball sets up the rest of his full arsenal, with his curveball, slider, and changeup all grading out as above average. He got hit harder as the season wore on, meaning he may not be fully recovered from surgery, but if you can look past that as well as his age, you have a back-end starter here with a relatively high floor.
Tier III (J. Thompson, Gaddis, Howard, Lowther, K. Thompson)
Luke Heimlich would have ranked right at the front of this tier, but it recently came out in the news that he is a registered level one sex offender in Washington, as he sexually molested a six year old family member when he was fifteen years old. This has, naturally, severely damaged or even destroyed his draft stock, pushing him from a likely top 50 pick to one who may not be drafted at all. Heimlich is the best pitcher on the best team in college baseball, Oregon State, having gone 11-1 with a 0.76 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP, striking out 128 batters in 118.1 innings over 16 starts. Anyways, let's move on to his teammate, Jake Thompson. Thompson, a redshirt junior who is already 22, has matched his teammate almost pitch for pitch, going 13-0 with a 1.30 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP while striking out 106 batters in 110.2 innings, 24.9% in all. He is currently pitching against Vanderbilt in place of Heimlich as I write this, so those numbers will change. Thompson has taken a huge step forward this year, bumping his fastball into the mid 90's with a solid slider and usable changeup. The lack of a track record makes some scouts nervous to use a second round pick on him, but he'll fit nicely in the third round. Will Gaddis, Furman's ace, has a very high floor but a low ceiling. He has dominated the Southern Conference (1.89 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 89/15 K/BB) with a fairly ordinary arsenal, led by a sinking low 90's fastball and a solid changeup. His breaking pitches aren't quite as good, and he profiles like a smaller Wil Crowe. Spencer Howard, a former walk-on at Cal Poly, has dominated in his two years on campus and profiles well as a back-end starter with his full arsenal, coming with a higher ceiling than Gaddis but a lower floor due to a shorter track record and less advanced command. Like Gaddis and Howard, Zac Lowther has dominated at a mid-major school, putting up a 2.92 ERA, but more notably, a 35.9% strikeout rate for Xavier this season. He's not your typical strikeout artist, though, as his upper 80's fastball is the slowest on this list but plays up due to advanced command and running movement. Combine that with a decent arsenal overall, and he's a left handed Gaddis with less velocity. Lastly, Keegan Thompson is another 22 year old, but he has the best secondary stuff in Tier III with an excellent curveball and a good changeup. With his solid command and low 90's fastball, he has the highest floor in this tier, but Tommy John surgery forced him to miss the 2016 season.
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