LHP David Peterson (University of Oregon): 6'6", 240 lbs, born 9/3/1995.
Overview
Fastball: 55. Slider: 55. Curveball: 45. Changeup: 50. Command: 60.
Originally on the outside of the first round discussion looking in at the beginning of this spring as a high floor, low ceiling lefty, Peterson has raised his floor even higher and has pushed his ceiling higher than the back-end starter level it was previously at. Now a virtual lock for the first round, he has a very good chance to go in the top half of the round and could even crack the top ten. He joins Louisville's Brendan McKay and UCLA's Griffin Canning as one of the three safest bets to start in the major leagues after a huge junior season at Oregon that saw him put up a 2.51 ERA and a ridiculous 140/15 strikeout to walk ratio in the Pac-12.
Strengths
There is very little risk involved in taking Peterson. The big lefty has a durable build at 6'6" and 240 pounds, and his full arsenal means he will likely never be relegated to the bullpen. His bread and butter is his fastball/slider combo, with the former working in the low 90's and the latter featuring hard bite. Both play up because of his ability to keep them around the corners of the strike zone. His changeup is also a usable pitch, one that has developed nicely if unspectacularly, and his curveball is mediocre but present and a distinctively different look from his slider. Peterson had a couple of games that caught national attention. On March 3rd, against a strong Mississippi State lineup that includes college baseball's top performer this year, Brent Rooker (.404/.505/.843, 53 XBH), Peterson tossed eight shutout innings on just three hits (all singles), no walks, and 17 strikeouts. On April 28th, against perennial power Arizona State (albeit with a weaker team this season), Peterson went the distance, allowing just four hits, one walk, and no earned runs over the full nine innings, striking out 20 Sun Devils. College performers, especially ones who are left handed pitchers, tend to come off the board early on draft day.
Weaknesses
While Peterson has raised his ceiling considerably this season, he still isn't likely to be more than a #3 starter. He is fully physically developed, so his low 90's fastball will remain just where it is, in the low 90's. His curveball is usable in college, but it will need to be tightened significantly if he wants to use it in pro ball, and there is a chance he scraps it to focus on the fastball-slider-changeup combination. He has also stumbled a bit recently, allowing four earned runs in two of his final three starts against #1 ranked Oregon State (5 IP) and UCLA (7 IP), and he also uncharacteristically walked four Beavers in that May 12th start against OSU. This is just nitpicking, though, and it doesn't change the fact that Peterson has as good a chance as any pitcher in this draft to crack an MLB rotation and do it soon. However, it has reduced his chances of going in the top ten, and he likely falls somewhere in the teens.
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