2022 MLB Draft Review: Texas Rangers

Full list of draftees

You may or may not think Kumar Rocker was a reach at third overall, and personally it's not the pick I would have made even with the discount, but you cannot deny the brilliance of this class as a whole especially given that they did it without a second or third round pick. They found an incredible amount of talent despite not making their second pick until #109, and that means I have to give massive kudos to now ex-GM Jon Daniels. After scooping up all that premium talent in the first five picks, the Rangers went an interesting route the rest of the way by giving just $7,000 to their eighth, ninth, and tenth picks combined, followed by drafting a slew of JuCo and high school players on day three. They got all four JuCo arms to sign, but landed just one of the five high schoolers on day three and let the other four get to campus. In all, it was a very pitching-heavy class that featured only five bats in total, one of which didn't even sign and two of which combined to sign for just $2,000. 
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-3: RHP Kumar Rocker, Tri-City ValleyCats. My rank: #36.
Slot value: $7.59 million. Signing bonus: $5.2 million ($2.39 million below slot value).
We pretty much all know about Kumar Rocker's wild ride to pro ball, but let's recap it real quick just in case anybody has been under a rock. The son of former NFL player and current Philadelphia Eagles defensive line coach Tracy Rocker, Kumar was one of the top high school pitchers in the country in 2018 and had significant first round interest. He wound up at Vanderbilt instead and quickly became one of the most famous players in college baseball with a tremendous freshman season highlighted by a 19 strikeout no-hitter against Duke in the Nashville Super Regional, and entered the 2021 draft cycle as a leading candidate to go first overall. While he was dominant more often than not that spring, he was just inconsistent enough under that top-of-the-draft spotlight to slip to the Mets at tenth overall, who initially offered him a $6 million signing bonus. However, the two sides disagreed over his post-draft physical and the Mets pulled the offer and informed him they would not sign him under any circumstances, effectively barring Rocker from affiliated baseball. He underwent minor arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder in September, then instead of returning to Vanderbilt for his senior season, he opted to train independently and signed with the Tri-City ValleyCats of the independent Frontier League. He got on the mound for five closely watched starts in June and July, posting a 1.35 ERA and a 32/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 20 innings and rocketing himself back up draft boards even as news of his September surgery broke. We all knew that Rocker would be one of the biggest wild cards in the first round, with rumored interest throughout the middle of the round but with many teams being scared off by the shoulder surgery, and he wound up going about ten picks ahead of where most expected his ceiling to be. His $5.2 million signing bonus, while more than $2 million below slot value at third overall, was roughly equivalent to slot value at ninth overall. So where does that leave us now? Kumar Rocker, who turns 23 in November, is naturally one of the most advanced pitchers in the class. His fastball velocity has been inconsistent, hovering close to 90 at times in 2021 but also touching 99 at others, with average riding life that can play a bit true and get hit when it's over the plate. His slider got slurvy at times last year, but at its best, it's a devastating plus-plus pitch that sends even the most disciplined hitters flailing at it. He also shows a shorter, harder cutter that looks like an above average pitch, while his changeup lacks deception and has been hit hard at times. Everything was at its best in his controlled outings in 2022, leading many teams including the Rangers to feel comfortable that his inconsistencies last spring were much more of a blip on the radar than anything representing his long term reality. Rocker also pounds the strike zone and while his control is ahead of his command, both looked very sharp with Tri-City. The 6'5" righty is also extremely physical and moves well on the mound with a competitive demeanor, giving off the proverbial vibe of a staff ace. Now the reason he fell out of the first round range on my board is his shoulder. It looked completely healthy in 2022, but between the inconsistency of his stuff in 2021 and the minor surgery shortly thereafter, it's far from guaranteed to hold up. Shoulders are notoriously unpredictable and if something goes wrong, the fix is often much more complicated than Tommy John surgery, but the Rangers are clearly comfortable with his medicals and are ready to have him join former Vanderbilt teammate Jack Leiter in Arlington sooner rather than later.

4-109: RHP Brock Porter, Orchard Lake St. Mary's HS [MI]. My rank: #16.
Slot value: $560,200. Signing bonus: $3.7 million ($3.14 million above slot value).
Signing Kumar Rocker for well below slot value opened up an opportunity for the Rangers to make a massive splash with Brock Porter, who signed for the highest bonus ever for a player outside the top one hundred picks. In fact, that $3.7 million payday he received to skip out on a Clemson commitment is between the slot values for the 17th and 18th picks, so nobody is mistaking his slide down to the fourth round as having anything to do with talent – there are many teams and most draft boards that considered him a first round pick. Porter has a tremendous combination of arm strength and polish, making him another potential future ace in a system that is getting deep in pitching. He sits comfortably in the mid 90's with his fastball and has touched triple digits on occasion, with enough stamina to hold that velocity deep into his starts. His breaking balls need more refinement but the feel for spin is certainly there, with a loopy mid 70's curveball with plenty of depth that just needs to add some power as well as a harder, shorter slider that looks like a true plus pitch when he snaps it off just right. Porter's best offspeed pitch is a plus changeup with huge fading action that can even work up in the zone, rounding out an arsenal that could, a few years down the road, feature four plus pitches. The 6'4" righty's delivery is clean, athletic, and repeatable, albeit with some head whack, and his average command is extremely impressive given how hard he throws. The main drawback in this profile, at least for some teams, is his age, as he turned 19 more than a month before the draft and is more age appropriate for a college freshman than a high school senior. Still, it's hard to imagine the Detroit-area native as anything but a high end starting pitcher.

5-139: OF Chandler Pollard, Woodward HS [GA]. My rank: #96.
Slot value: $418,500. Signing bonus: $418,500.
This has a chance to really, really pay off for the Rangers. Chandler Pollard had a Washington State commitment in the bag, but surprisingly signed with the Rangers for slot value here in the fifth round. He's an exceptional athlete that moves extremely well on both sides of the ball, with plenty of projection once he gets into the Rangers development system. In the box, he shows extremely quick hands that produce plenty of bat speed, with the long arms and legs to create natural leverage from his 6'2" frame. He does need to get stronger to tap more power, but I definitely see it in him and he could get to above average in time. Pollard's hit tool is unproven, as he rose to prominence more this spring against Atlanta-area competition rather than over the summer against showcase competition, but he has shown the ability to get to balls all over the zone and do damage. On the other side of the ball, he's a plus runner that played a lot of shortstop in high school, where his glovework was a bit raw, but the Rangers drafted him as an outfielder and where he has a chance to stick in center field. Pollard has a lot of work to do to reach his lofty ceiling, but the natural ability is absolutely there and his projection and athleticism make for excellent building blocks. He has played two games so far in the Arizona Complex League, going hitless with a pair of strikeouts in five at bats while adding a walk.

6-169: OF Tommy Specht, Wahlert Catholic HS [IA]. My rank: #122.
Slot value: $314,400. Signing bonus: $450,000 ($135,600 above slot value).
A year ago, the Rangers drafted a catcher named Ian Moller in the fourth round out of Wahlert Catholic High School that stood out on the showcase circuit but struggled in game action. This year, they grabbed another Wahlert Catholic alum who also showed well on the showcase circuit before struggling in the spring. Tommy Specht is a physical, athletic outfielder that draws some parallels to Zac Veen, albeit not quite at his level. He takes big, explosive swings from the left side, with the potential for plus power as he matures. He made a lot of loud contact over the summer, but he wasn't always consistent and that was certainly the case in a slower spring. The Dubuque, Iowa native is also an above average runner with a plus arm, and he has a chance to stick in center field or become an asset in right field. Additionally, he's more than a year younger than Brock Porter in the same class and has a great head on his shoulders, giving him plenty of time to develop and the tools to do so. The Rangers are bought into the explosive tools he showed over the summer, and they hope he'll regain that form once he gets into their development system. There is a ton of upside to be had here at the relatively modest price of $450,000 to sign away from a Kentucky commitment, and Specht has so far picked up two hits in ten at bats with six strikeouts to two walks through three games in the Arizona Complex League. 

7-199: RHP Luis Ramirez, Long Beach State. My rank: #138.
Slot value: $245,000. Signing bonus: $250,000 ($5,000 above slot value).
Thought of as a late day two candidate entering the season, Luis Ramirez came out of the gate red hot with dominant outings against Mississippi State, Sacramento State, and Hawaii, allowing three runs (just one earned) in 25 innings over his first four starts, rocketing as high as second round consideration. However, he went down with a shoulder injury after that fourth start in mid-March, missed three weeks, and wasn't nearly as effective when he returned, allowing eleven runs (seven earned) and walking seven in 8.2 innings over his next three starts. Long Beach State shut him down again for good, and he hasn't pitched since. In all, he had a 2.14 ERA and a 38/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.2 innings, but those numbers were 0.36 and 28/4 before the injury. As I mentioned with Kumar Rocker, shoulder injuries are extremely unpredictable, and it's hard to know what to make of the situation. He ranked #80 at Prospects Live, #118 at Baseball America, #138 on my board, and #143 at MLB Pipeline but teams passed him up until pick #199, and they presumably have more information on his medicals than these publications do (certainly more than I do), so I wouldn't exactly take that as a good sign. Still, when Ramirez is on the mound, the stuff belongs well within the top one hundred picks. His fastball sits in the low 90's but can touch as high as 98, with nasty running and sinking action from a high three quarters slot that generates a ton of ground balls. He adds a big slider with deep break and an above average changeup, making for a very good three pitch mix. The Los Angeles native commands his fastball very well but can get a little more scattered with his offspeed pitches, so once he gets back on the mound, that should be a point of emphasis. He has the luck of a durable #4 starter with a solid 6'2" frame, though obviously that's a question mark until he gets his shoulder back to full strength.

11-319: LHP Kohl Drake, Walters State JC. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $175,000 ($50,000 against bonus pool).
The Rangers have quite a few pitchers from DFW in their system, including Cody Bradford (Aledo), Mason Englert (Forney), and Josh Stephan (Grand Prairie), and they'll add another one in Kohl Drake. Drake grew up in Sachse about 18 miles northeast of downtown and attended Wylie High School one town over, but he's played baseball all over the country. After beginning his career at Arkansas Tech, he transferred across the country to San Joaquin Delta JC in California in 2020, then after the shutdown moved all the way back across the country again to Walters State JC in East Tennessee. It was there that he finally came into his own, putting on a show this spring with a 1.93 ERA and a 160/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 93.1 innings. That included three different outings with at least thirteen strikeouts and one against Columbia State JC in which he struck out sixteen over seven shutout innings. Now, the Rangers will bring the well-travelled lefty back home. Drake sits around 90 with his fastball with some riding life, drops in a solid curveball with deep break, and adds a solid changeup as well. He commands it all very well, having cleaned up his delivery considerably at Walters State, and was able to dice up JuCo hitters across the South. Now hitting pro ball, he's going to need to add a few ticks of velocity across the board, both to his fastball and offspeed stuff. Though he turned 22 on the first day of the draft, he remains very projectable at 6'5" and could probably throw a little harder in a pro development program. If he can, he has the ingredients of a back end starter, and one that knows his way around the Metroplex to boot.

18-529: LHP Justin Sanchez, Monsignor McClancy HS [NY]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
Justin Sanchez represents a sleeper in this class, signing away from a USF commitment for $125,000 in the eighteenth round. He only sits in the upper 80's with his fastball, topping out around 91, adding a two-plane slider with deep, late break as well as a fairly advanced changeup. Though he doesn't throw particularly hard now, the 6' lefty doesn't feature much effort in his delivery and can land all three of his pitches for strikes to both sides of the plate, so he's very advanced. With his all-around game in a very good spot to start out, he can focus his attention on adding velocity and power to get pro hitters out. You also don't typically see too many kids getting drafted out of New York City high schools, but Monsignor McClancy in Queens is on a good run lately, also having churned out second rounder Quentin Holmes (Indians) and fifth rounder Charlie Neuweiler (Royals) in the 2017 draft.

19-559: RHP Grayson Saunier, Collierville HS [TN]. My rank: #144.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
Grayson Saunier did not sign in the nineteenth round, which I think was smart on his part, and will head to Ole Miss to try to build his stock. I think he has a very good chance to do so, with an extremely projectable 6'4" frame, plenty of latent arm strength, and present pitchability that he hasn't been able to showcase much while batting injuries. Saunier does not show consistent velocity, sitting in the upper 80's at times but also reaching back for as much as 96 at others, and that's probably a result of those nagging injuries. He shows great feel to spin both a slider and a curveball, and adds an advanced changeup as well to round out a balanced arsenal. The Memphis-area native has a very athletic delivery and repeats it well, leading to above average command when he's at his best, and that combined with his projectability portend to plenty more velocity in the future. If Saunier can get stronger and stay healthy at Ole Miss, I have no reason not to believe he'll be a top three round pick or better in 2025.

The Top Ten Prospects Returning to School in 2022

After the 2020 draft, we saw an unprecedented number of draft-eligible college stars return to school because of the shortened draft, headlined by players like Florida's Tommy Mace, ECU's Gavin Williams, and Ohio State's Seth Lonsway (as I wrote about after the fact). Williams ended up being the first 2020-eligible player drafted in 2021 at 23rd overall, followed by Florida State's Matheu Nelson at 35th overall and Fordham's Matt Mikulski at 50th overall. While we certainly don't have the same depth in the 2021 class of returners given the fifteen extra rounds, we may have even greater star power at the top after a couple of early picks went unsigned, of course led by the high profile Kumar Rocker debacle. Let's take a look at the top ten draft prospects returning to school after being eligible in 2021. Rankings are from my personal board and the list goes by that board, not their 2022 draft status.

1. RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt (?). 2021 rank: #10.
2021 stats: 14-4, 2.73 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 179/39 K/BB in 122 IP.
Most of us have heard all about this one by now. Kumar Rocker, the most famous name in college baseball, was drafted tenth overall by the Mets and initially agreed to a $6 million signing bonus, but a dispute over his medical led to New York completely rescinding their offer, deciding the compensation they'd get in 2022 would be more valuable than giving him even a single penny to sign. Of course, that leaves Rocker in a pickle because he was in effect barred from playing affiliated professional baseball as a result, through no fault of his own. It sounds like he won't be going back to Vanderbilt in 2022, where he would head up a rotation with some ultra talented up-and-comers like Patrick Reilly and Christian Little. That could change, and as a fan of college baseball myself, I'd love to see that happen. There are plenty of independent league teams throughout the US that would kill for the opportunity to get him on their club, and he could also take the Carter Stewart route through Japan or another foreign professional league. Or he could just work out on his own and throw bullpens for scouts, which to me sounds pretty boring but could be the best way for him to control his future. If his stuff stays where it is now and he proves fully healthy one way or another, then he'll likely hear his name called in back to back first rounds a la Mark Appel (though let's hope his career goes a bit smoother than Appel's). We've all heard plenty about the stuff by now, but let's talk about it one more time. The 6'5" righty pounds the strike zone with a low to mid 90's fastball that can get into the upper 90's, though at times it can play a bit true and scouts have nitpicked his ability to command it within the zone. He throws a slider that can be double-plus at its best, such as when he used it to finish all nineteen of his strikeouts in a super regional no-hitter against Duke as a freshman, though at times it got a bit slurvy in 2021. Rocker has also developed a cutter that looks like an above average pitch and has shown solid feel for a changeup, though the latter was hit hard at times in 2021. There's obviously huge upside here as a true ace, but of course he has a lot of questions to answer in 2022.

2. OF Jud Fabian, Florida. 2021 rank: #22.
2021 stats: 20 HR, 46 RBI, .249/.364/.560, 6 SB, 79/40 K/BB in 59 games.
Like Kumar Rocker, Jud Fabian was drafted early (in this case 40th overall), but it was a slightly different situation. While Rocker and the Mets disagreed over his medicals and the Mets outright refused to offer him a dollar, Fabian and the Red Sox disagreed over money. Fabian made it clear he wanted something in the ballpark of $3 million and it was rumored that other teams farther down in the second round were willing to give it to him, but Boston took him earlier and offered him a fraction of that. Because Fabian is extremely young for his class and doesn't turn 21 until September, he held extra leverage and was able to hold his ground for the bonus he wanted, and ultimately the Red Sox couldn't meet it. He'll return to Gainesville for a fourth season and will fit right in age-wise with the 2022 first-time college draftees, perhaps a hair on the older side but still in the same range as guys like Jace Jung, Hayden Dunhurst, and Chase DeLauter. Fabian stands out for a combination of feel and tools at a young age, showing plus raw power that he taps consistently in games including not one but two home runs off of second overall pick Jack Leiter. He had one of the best eyes in the class at determining balls from strikes and also did well with fastballs versus offspeed pitches, so he rarely chased even against quality SEC stuff. The only problem here was the pure bat to ball skills, as the Ocala native struggled mightily with swing and miss even on pitches in the zone. This was due to a quick uppercut that naturally comes with more swing and miss, but he got so streaky at times (including sixteen strikeouts in a five game span against South Carolina and Ole Miss) that teams were too nervous to give him his money in the first round. Back in Gainesville next year, he'll work to prove that he can catch up to premium SEC fastballs, and if he can have a slump-free run next spring, we could be talking top half of the first round.

3. RHP Jonathan Cannon, Georgia. 2021 rank: #99.
2021 stats: 4-2, 3.98 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 57/13 K/BB in 63.1 IP.
Jonathan Cannon entered the spring with a chance to pitch his way into the first round, and in January I had him right on the fringes of that first round range. He missed the start of the season with mono, then tossed six shutout innings over his first two starts against Georgia Southern and Lipscomb as he got back on track. However, he ultimately ended up looking much more "good" than "great," with seven scoreless innings against Vanderbilt on April 10th being his only true gem. Cannon sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can reach back for up to 96-97 early in starts, and there have been times where he's been able to touch the mid 90's late in starts as well. He adds a horizontal slider with some snap and a changeup with nice fade, and while they both have their moments, they look closer to average than plus. The big 6'6" righty does an excellent job of filling up the strike zone and only walked multiple batters in three of his thirteen starts, though to this point the control is ahead of the command and he can get hit when he leaves pitches over the plate. Right now, the profile seems *this close* to being that of an impact starter, and he'll look to get over that hump back in Athens in 2022. If he can get just a little more consistent with his offspeed stuff or perhaps tighten his in-zone command just a hair, we have a top two rounds prospect. The Atlanta-area native was eligible as a sophomore last year with a July birthday so he'll be just slightly older than most first-time eligible players in 2022.

4. LHP Andrew Walling, Eastern Oklahoma State JC -> Mississippi State. 2021 rank: #103.
2021 stats: 10-2, 2.45 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 107/27 K/BB in 69.2 IP.
Eastern Oklahoma State College in Wilburton, Oklahoma compiled an extremely talented rotation in 2021, one that sent Christian McGowan to the Phillies in the seventh round and could have sent Andrew Walling to pro ball even earlier if he was signable. Instead, he'll head east to Mississippi State, where he'll help the Bulldogs fill the massive holes left by their top two starters, Will Bednar (Giants, first round) and Christian MacLeod (Twins, fifth round). Walling began his career at Oregon State but threw just 10.1 innings from 2019-2020 (while walking eleven), and consistent innings in Wilburton turned out to be just what he needed. His control improved to fringe-average, which helped his big stuff play up. The Longview, Washington native sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has touched 97-98, holding that velocity throughout his starts for the most part. He has great feel to spin the ball and shows a big curveball with depth and a sharp slider that he locates well, in addition to a decent changeup. The 6'3" lefty has a durable frame and a pretty repeatable delivery, and he has a very good chance to take over a weekend rotation spot in Starkville even as he competes with Jackson Fristoe, Landon Sims, and other holdovers. I would consider myself one of the high guys on Walling as far as the 2021 draft goes, and while he'll be on the older side in 2022 as he'll pitch the entire season at 22 years old, I definitely see mid-rotation upside.

5. OF Isaiah Thomas, Vanderbilt (?). My rank: #109.
2021 stats: 13 HR, 40 RBI, .305/.361/.583, 12 SB, 63/9 K/BB in 59 games.
Vanderbilt is returning a hell of a lineup next spring, with catcher CJ Rodriguez (A's, fifth round) and third baseman Jayson Gonzalez (White Sox, seventeenth round) being the only major losses. They didn't think they'd be getting back right fielder Isaiah Thomas, who might have the highest offensive ceiling in the entire program aside from potential 2022 first rounder Carter Young, but here we are. Few players anywhere in college baseball can scorch a line drive like Thomas, who packs a ton of lean strength into his 6'3" frame and shows plus raw power from the right side. He's also shown a very accurate barrel that has consistently punished quality SEC pitching, which is especially notable because he was one of the most aggressive hitters in the draft class last year. Thomas swings at pretty much everything even remotely hittable, walking an average of just once every six and a half games while striking out at a 25.7% clip. Honestly to me, that makes his ability to do consistent damage against high-end pitching very impressive, and I really think the sky is the limit. In 2022, the South Florida native will really need to tone down his approach and show the ability to work counts rather than just hacking away until something happens, and if he can even get his K/BB ratio to something like a 2:1 or 3:1 rather than the 7:1 he showed in 2021, he could be one of the first seniors drafted.
*Update, the day after I published this article, Isaiah Thomas announced his intention to step away from the Vanderbilt baseball program for mental health reasons.

6. RHP Dylan Ross, Northwest Florida State JC -> Georgia. My rank: #158.
2021 stats: 6-2, 3.88 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 77/28 K/BB in 60.1 IP.
Dylan Ross began his career at Eastern Kentucky, but earned just four innings out of the Colonels bullpen and transferred to Northwest Florida State in the panhandle. He showed flashes of dominance, such as when he struck out fifteen against Tallahassee JC, and now he'll return to his home state of Georgia to join Jonathan Cannon in the Bulldogs rotation and replace Ryan Webb (Indians, fourth round). Ross is all about power. His fastball sits consistently in the mid 90's and has touched as high as 99, so triple digits are not out of the question in 2022. He adds a short, tight slider in the mid to upper 80's that can miss bats when it's located, while his equally hard splitter really gets hitters off balance. The 6'5" righty has long levers and throws with some effort, so he often has a hard time keeping everything in sync and can get scattered. He was able to blow baseballs by Florida JuCo hitters and that masked some of his control questions, but the transition to more polished SEC hitters in 2022 will be closely watched. The Statesboro native also faces relief questions because everything he throws is hard, and he currently lacks the ability to change speeds and mess with hitters' timing like you'd expect from a starting pitcher. If the Georgia staff can help him develop something softer, perhaps a changeup or a curveball, that could go a long way, but of course the command does need to be addressed as well. He'll be age appropriate in 2022, pitching the whole season at 21 years old.

7. RHP Troy Melton, San Diego State. My rank: #163.
2021 stats: 4-5, 6.14 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 83/30 K/BB in 73.1 IP.
Troy Melton continues the theme of younger players who weren't yet 21 on draft day. He's fairly new to pitching and when you combine that with his extreme youth, scouts were willing to give him more slack than most other prospects. However, he still wasn't quite effective enough this spring to give scouts confidence in projecting him as a starter, allowing at least four runs in six of his last seven starts. Melton is a natural on the mound with a low to mid 90's fastball that he can run up to 97, while his lower release point and nice extension make the pitch play up. He adds a sweepy slider and a more top to bottom, get-me-over curveball, as well as a decent changeup. While he has a tendency to leave pitches over the plate, he shows average command and has a very repeatable delivery. The 6'4" righty moves extremely well on the mound and shows the kind of profile that will be really malleable once he gets into pro ball. Now that he'll be age-appropriate rather than a full year younger than his drat-eligible peers (he doesn't turn 21 until December), scouts will want to see a little more development in his game, but overall it's still a really fun ball of clay to work with. The Orange County native will go back to San Diego State in 2022 to prove that he can make it as a starting pitcher, hopefully taking that next step that scouts have been hoping for.

8. RHP Mack Anglin, Clemson. My rank: #183.
2021 stats: 2-6, 3.99 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 75/33 K/BB in 56.1 IP.
Mack Anglin was actually drafted by the Nationals in the thirteenth round as backup in case Brady House or Daylen Lile didn't sign, but they both did and Anglin wanted more money than Washington could offer him. He was eligible as a sophomore due to a July birthday, so after being relatively young for last year's class, he'll just be relatively old for this one. Anglin stands out for his ability to just rip through a baseball on the mound, getting exceptionally high spin rates on his stuff that really make the ball dance. His fastball sits in the mid 90's while his curveball and slider are unique, plus pitches. However, it's clearly a relief profile at this point because he has a high effort delivery and can struggle to throw consistent strikes, and for that reason, teams didn't want to meet his asking price. The central Ohio native has a chance to go back to Clemson and smooth things out a bit, and if he can, the pure stuff fits in the top one hundred picks. He was sharp in the Cape Cod League and struck out sixteen in 12.2 innings, but the delivery still looked a bit rushed and he still has a reliever profile for now. We'll see where that stands after another full season in the ACC.

9. RHP Brandon Birdsell, Texas Tech. My rank: #184.
2021 stats: 4-1, 3.06 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 36/9 K/BB in 35.1 IP.
I'd like to congratulate Brandon Birdsell for making this list two years in a row, as he ranked fifth a year ago coming out of San Jacinto JC. At this point last year, he was just breaking out as a prospect and had a ton of helium behind his name, but the fact that COVID shut down his breakout season meant that teams weren't quite comfortable enough with his track record to sign him away from a Texas Tech commitment. Birdsell continued that breakout in 2021 and allowed no more than one earned run in any of his final five starts, but unfortunately went down with a shoulder injury in April and never got back on the mound. Shoulders are really scary and teams were justifiably nervous to pay him like an impact pitching prospect, so he'll head back to Texas Tech in 2022 where he will look to prove his health. He has a good opportunity there with Mason Montgomery (Rays, sixth round), Ryan Sublette (Dodgers, seventh round), Hunter Dobbins (Red Sox, eighth round), and Patrick Monteverde (Marlins, eighth round) all gone to pro ball, as well as Micah Dallas having transferred to Texas A&M and Connor Queen graduating, so the Red Raiders are wide open for innings next spring. When healthy, the Southeast Texas product has two big league pitches in a mid 90's fastball that has gotten up to 99 as well as a power upper 80's slider. He also adds a newer curveball and a changeup that look solid at times but need more consistency. Birdsell pounds the strike zone and shows average command when healthy, so he has a chance to really improve his stock with a healthy 2022. That and further refinement of his curve or changeup will help teams project him as a starter, whereas if any of that lags, he might have more of a reliever outlook. The 6'2" righty was drafted by the Twins in the eleventh round this year but didn't sign.

10. LHP Austin Krob, Texas Christian. My rank: #186.
2021 stats: 8-1, 3.81 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 96/37 K/BB in 85 innings.
Austin Krob looked to be an interesting late day two option, but instead he went undrafted and is heading back to TCU for a third season, which was preceded by a year at Kirkwood JC in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Since he'll turn 22 in September, he's the oldest player on this list and will therefore be nearly 23 by the time he gets into pro ball. He was pretty dependable this spring and with Russell Smith (Brewers, second round) and Johnny Ray (White Sox, twelfth round) gone to pro ball, he's the only returning member of the weekend rotation. The 6'3" lefty is up to the task, showing solid command of a quality four pitch mix. His fastball sits in the low 90's and gets up to 94-95, while his sweepy slider and fading changeup are regularly above average. He can morph that slider into more of a downer curveball, though it's better when it's a true slider. Krob uses a low three quarters delivery that puts some lateral angle on the baseball, and while he doesn't figure to miss a ton of bats in pro ball, he profiles well as a back-end starter that can eat innings and generate weak contact. The Iowa native seems like he is what he is as a prospect, so staying healthy and continuing to miss bats in the Big 12 will be on his to-do list in 2022.

Others:
#191 LHP Julian Bosnic, South Carolina
#192 1B Dominic Keegan, Vanderbilt
#194 LHP Pete Hansen, Texas
#196 1B Ivan Melendez, Texas
#201 RHP Will Frisch, Oregon State
#203 RHP Mason Pelio, Boston College
#216 OF Levi Usher, Louisville

2021 MLB Draft Review: New York Mets

Full list of draftees

There is a lot to unpack here with the Mets' draft class, perhaps more than any other team. They started it off with the most famous name in the draft, Vanderbilt ace Kumar Rocker, but pulled his offer after a disagreement over his medical and showed him the door. That would be a disaster for any team, but it was especially bad for the Mets, who did not put a backup plan in place by drafting an "unsignable" high schooler on the third day of the draft. They spent more than a million less than their bonus pool throughout the second day of the draft in order to afford Rocker's original $6 million signing bonus, passing over some big talent in the process. Had they picked up a "priced out" high schooler like, say, Hagen Smith, on day three, they could have used that extra million to bring him in as a consolation prize. Instead, they signed all of their day three picks for $125,000 or less, again missing out on some top talent. Now, it's not all gloom for the Mets, because despite the awful position they put themselves in (and put Kumar in an even worse position), I actually think they drafted really well with the crappy hand they dealt themselves. Second rounder Calvin Ziegler is a stud who would have fit great in the third round and signed well below slot, third rounder Dominic Hamel had close to second round value in my opinion, and fourth rounder JT Schwartz absolutely had fourth round value even though he signed below slot. So even though this was a disaster, it could have been worse.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-10: RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt. My rank: #10.
This was the most talked about pick in the draft this year, and for good reason. Kumar Rocker was the most famous name in the class, having been a potential first round pick out of high school in 2018 before setting the world on fire as a freshman in 2019. That year, he played a huge part in pitching Vanderbilt to the national championship, and his signature moment came when he struck out 19 in a super regional no-hitter against Duke. Though he had his inconsistencies, it was more of the same in 2021 as he finished with a 2.73 ERA and a 179/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 innings leading up to a runner-up finish for the Commodores, the 179 strikeouts tying with his teammate Jack Leiter to lead the nation. The Mets picked him up with the tenth overall pick and almost immediately agreed to a $6 million signing bonus, but they disliked his medicals and rescinded the offer completely. Not reduced, rescinded. Because the Mets still own Rocker's draft rights despite actively not wanting him, he can't sign with another team, so he has a few options. His camp hasn't given any clarity on what he'll do, but he could go back to Vanderbilt (which seems unlikely), pitch in independent ball, work out on his own, or go the Carter Stewart route to Japan. It's sucks because he did nothing wrong to be put in this position, but unfortunately that's the way MLB has it set up. As for his skillset, the big 6'5" righty has a fastball that generally sits in the low to mid 90's and touches the upper 90's at its best, though it did dip briefly in 2021. His slider is his money pitch, looking like a plus-plus wipeout offering in the past, but it got slurvy at times this year. He also shows an above average cutter and has shown feel for a changeup, but the latter got hit hard when he broke it out this year. He has great control and rarely hurts himself with walks, but struggles with location inside the zone and could get hit hard in pro ball if he doesn't tighten that up. There are also some moving parts in his delivery that need to be ironed out, but he's a great athlete that moves very well for his size. Lastly, he's a big game pitcher who always steps up in high pressure situations, with all the intangibles you look for in a workhorse ace.

2-46: RHP Calvin Ziegler, TNXL Academy [FL]. My rank: #95.
The Mets got their biggest discount with Calvin Ziegler, a Canadian high schooler who was eligible last year but went undrafted. He was extremely young for the class last year so he's age appropriate this year, after which he spent the spring pitching at TNXL Academy in Orlando. He's got a power arm that can pump fastballs in the low to mid 90's, getting up as high as 98 at best. The Ontario native adds an above average curveball and changeup, giving him one of the better three pitch mixes in the class. It's a pretty efficient operation drawing power from his back leg, channeling all of the strength in his sturdy 6' frame towards the plate. His command can come and go, but he's generally around the strike zone and shows flashes of above average command. Ziegler does a lot well and is trending in the right direction, and so long as his command stays together, he carries less risk than the typical high school arm because of that. The Mets probably won't get an ace here, but they should be getting at least a very capable back-end starter with a good shot at becoming a mid-rotation guy. He signed for $910,000, which was roughly $710,000 below slot value to forego an Auburn commitment.

3-81: RHP Dominic Hamel, Dallas Baptist. My rank: #59.
I love this pick for the Mets, and they didn't even have to go above slot to get it done. Dominic Hamel has been draft eligible for five years in a row, but went undrafted in 2017 out of high school, in 2018 and 2019 at Yavapai JC in Arizona, and again in 2020 at Dallas Baptist. He might have gone somewhere in the sixth to tenth round range in 2020 had the draft been longer, but he took a step forward in 2021 anyways and posted a 4.22 ERA and a 136/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.2 innings. Hamel has a very interesting fastball that sits in the low 90's and tops out around 96, but he combines excellent extension with high spin rates to make the pitch play up. He adds a curveball and a slider, both of which come with high spin rates as well, and though they can blend into each other at times, there is a lot to work with. Currently, his changeup is his fourth pitch. The Phoenix-area native shows average command, nothing special but enough to get the job done, though his delivery can be a bit rushed at times. He's far from a finished product even though he's already 22, and to a traditional club he could look like a reliever. If the Mets get creative in their development, though, his unique pitch metrics could make him an impact starting pitcher once the New York optimizes his approach and helps him get a little more refined with those secondary pitches. If he takes a step forward with either his command or that secondary stuff, I think we're talking about at least a #3 or #4 starter. If not, the stuff will play up in short bursts out of the bullpen. The 6'2" righty signed for full slot value at $755,300.

4-111: 1B JT Schwartz, UCLA. My rank: #112.
Here's another fun one. As a Nationals fan who saw a very similar player in Branden Boissiere sign for $600,000 a round earlier, I actually would have preferred this JT Schwartz pick regardless of the fact that he signed for more than $100,000 less. After redshirting his freshman year, Schwartz has been the most consistent hitter in a stacked UCLA lineup over the past two seasons and was one of the toughest outs on the West Coast this spring, slashing .396/.514/.628 with eight home runs and a 28/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games. Schwartz has a plus hit tool that enables him to find the barrel exceptionally easily, deftly identifying balls from strikes and controlling the strike zone throughout his at bats. Listed at a lanky 6'4", he has slowly been adding power to his game and popped for eight home runs this spring, though from a first baseman you likely want to see more. There are some concerns over how physical he will actually end up, but if I were the Mets, I would feed him nothing but steaks and protein powder until he was hitting 20+ home runs a year (though given the fact that he'll be making a four figure salary in the minors, that might be unlikely). The Southern California native is probably limited to first base in pro ball, and if the Mets had any inclination of trying him out at third base, they probably would have announced him as one, though what you're officially drafted as really doesn't matter. The sky is the limit if he can bump his power up, but the most likely outcome I see is a 15-20 home run hitter with high on-base percentages and little defensive value, and he'll have to prove he's durable after missing time with hip issues. Schwartz signed for $475,000, which was $47,600 below slot value, and has three hits in twelve at bats so far for Low A St. Lucie.

5-142: RHP Christian Scott, Florida. Unranked.
A bit buried in an incredibly deep Florida pitching staff that saw three other pitchers get drafted (Tommy Mace, Jack Leftwich, Franco Aleman, and ironically all by the Indians), Christian Scott showed very well out of the Gator bullpen with a 3.00 ERA and a 51/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 innings this spring. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and got as high as 98 in 2021, getting some nice run on the ball. Scott's primary offspeed pitch is an above average slider that helped him miss plenty of bats, and he has shown an average changeup from time to time. The 6'4" righty stays closed in his delivery before forcefully unwinding at the last second, but his command did take a step forward in 2021 and he was getting ahead in the count much more often. Because of the effort delivery though, it's hard to see him working back into the rotation in the Mets' system and he's probably a long term reliever. He's very old for a junior and already turned 22 in June, further pointing to a bullpen career. The South Florida native signed for $350,000, which was $36,600 below slot value.

6-172: RHP Carson Seymour, Kansas State. Unranked.
Carson Seymour is well travelled, having grown up in California before beginning his college career nearly 2500 miles away at Dartmouth, after which he came almost exactly halfway home to Kansas State. So I guess the compromise between California and New Hampshire is Kansas. He looked sharp in 2020 and earned serious consideration towards the back of the five round draft, but went undrafted and came back to Manhattan for another season. This year was very up and down and he finished with a 6.19 ERA and a 57/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.2 innings. Seymour is a power arm if you've ever seen one, sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball over long outings and getting up to 99 in short stints. The 6'6", 260 pound righty also spins a plus slider that can crack 90, something that will be a true weapon even at the big league level. He also shows feel for an above average curveball and a solid changeup, but he's 22 and a half and scouts are still waiting for him to put it all together. Seymour has long struggled to repeat his delivery and often gets caught leaving pitches over the plate after he falls behind in the count, making all of his pitches play down. It also doesn't help that his fastball is pretty straight and should probably be tinkered with in pro ball, perhaps switched to a two seamer or sinker. The Mets have their work cut out for them in making the Southern California product a useable big league piece, but the sky is the limit and in the best case scenario, he may not just be limited to a bullpen role. He signed for full slot value at $291,400.

8-232: RHP Mike Vasil, Virginia. My rank: #147.
Mike Vasil's stock has been on a bit of a rollercoaster for a long time. He was considered a potential first round pick out of high school, but got hurt as a senior and fulfilled his commitment to Virginia. There, he underwhelmed evaluators over the first two years of his college career, watching his stock fall considerably. Then in 2021, he came out firing with three straight gems to start off the season against UConn, UNC, and Florida State, each of whom made a regional, pushing his name back up boards into top two rounds consideration. Then his stuff flattened back out and he has steadily fallen ever since, furthering UVA's terribly poor track record of developing pitchers. He finished with a 4.52 ERA and a 73/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.2 innings. Vasil shows a low 90's fastball that can get up to 94-95, adding a full arsenal of secondary pitches behind it. His slider is short and hard, while his curveball is sharp but doesn't always show big depth, and his changeup gets good fade. They're all useful pitches, but none acts as a true putaway pitch and he doesn't have quite enough velocity to just gas hitters up. The 6'5" righty has a big frame and hits his spots well with above average command, meaning all the puzzle pieces are in place for a #3 or #4 starter. But because he's failed to miss a ton of bats, it's probably a #5 starter outlook unless he gets a lot more consistent with one of his breaking balls. In the third to fifth round where he was projected, that was a tough sell, but it's certainly an interesting one in the eighth. The Boston-area native signed for full slot value at $181,200.

11-322: OF Rowdey Jordan, Mississippi State. Unranked.
In 2019, the Mets picked up all time SEC hits leader Jake Mangum and all time LSU hits leader Antoine Duplantis, and while Rowdey Jordan didn't exactly threaten Mangum's Mississippi State record, the New York is getting a similar player as they load up on established SEC leadoff men. Rowdey was a fan favorite in Starkville, where he was Mangum's heir in that regard in addition to being the next leadoff man, and he finished a very successful four year career with a .311/.393/.481 line over 208 games. This year, he set career highs in all three triple slash categories at .323/.417/.546, adding ten home runs and a 43/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 68 games. The Auburn, Alabama native is not overly physical at 5'10", but gets the job done due to strong feel for the barrel and plenty of twitchy strength in his smaller frame. He shows no problems handling advanced SEC pitching and setting the table for the guys behind him, employing a somewhat aggressive approach as well as a willingness to take his HBP's and get on base. Jordan is an above average runner who will steal his share of bases in the majors, and he should also be able to stick in center field. It's definitely a fourth outfielder profile because he likely won't ever develop more than 10-12 home run power at best and shows an average hit tool, but he has a lot of success already under his belt and should transition to pro ball relatively easily. He signed for $125,000 and is off to a red hot start for Low A St. Lucie, slashing .429/.500/.476 with more walks (4) than strikeouts (3) through seven games.

16-472: RHP Trey McLoughlin, Fairfield. Unranked.
The Mets didn't draft any true hometown guys, but we can consider Trey McLoughlin to be one as a product of Shelton High School just west of New Haven and a four year Fairfield Stag. His teammate, Watertown (near Waterbury) native Justin Guerrera, also went to the Mets in the twentieth round. McLoughlin missed most of the 2021 season but controlled the strike zone well when he was on the mound, posting a 4.94 ERA and a 32/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.2 innings, including a regional start against Arizona State. He sits around 90 with his fastball, bumping 93 at his best, while adding a good curveball. The 6'2" righty shows strong command and could stick in the rotation if the Mets find a way to bump his velocity up a little bit and refines his changeup, and he's known as a strong competitor. That's about all the information I have. He signed for $30,000 and has allowed two runs in three innings so far for Low A St. Lucie, striking out five.

18-532: RHP Kolby Kubichek, Texas. Unranked.
I was hoping for a breakout from Kolby Kubichek this spring, but he was more good than great and couldn't quite build on his stock. Still, he remains a very interesting arm here in the eighteenth round. Having jumped onto scouts radars with a fantastic run through the Cape Cod League as an underclassman in 2019 (1.77 ERA, 41/12 K/BB in 35.2 IP), he finished the 2021 season with a 3.86 ERA and a 41/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 51.1 innings for Texas, all as a starter. Kubichek is an undersized sinkerballer who sits around 90 with his fastball, topping out around 93-94, though the movement is above average. He adds an above average changeup that is his best secondary option, playing extremely well off his sinker, while his slider and curveball are more fringe-average pitches that don't miss a ton of bats. The 6' righty shows fringe-average command as well, which will need to improve given his profile as a pitch to contact guy. Either that, or we'll need to see an uptick in his velocity and one of his breaking balls, but given his size the command is probably more likely where he needs to focus. The Bryan, Texas native has a chance to be a #4-#5 starter or long reliever. He signed for $125,000 and has allowed three runs (one earned) over three innings between the FCL and Low A St. Lucie, striking out three.

2021 MLB Draft: Ten Options for the Nationals at pick #11 (final update)

The draft is almost here, so I'll be updating this story one more time. The Nationals pick at #11 and have been almost exclusively tied to arms, so that will be the focus here, but I do see three to four bats that could make sense if the Nationals want to buck some trends (and make me happy). 

First, I'll give my opinion on who I think the Nationals should draft. There are six players who I would give virtually no chance of reaching the Nationals, and those are high school shortstops Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawlar, Brady House, and Kahlil Watson, in addition to Vanderbilt righthander Jack Leiter and Louisville catcher Henry Davis. If one of those falls to #11, the Nationals should 100% snatch one up if the signing bonus is remotely reasonable. There's also Vanderbilt ace Kumar Rocker, who is very unlikely to be available at #11, but he seems to have at least a sliver of a chance of getting down there and I absolutely don't see the Nationals passing him up if he's available. I'd go for it in that case as well. Jackson Jobe seems to be in the same boat, but prep righthanders tend to slide in the draft and if he's available with a remotely reasonable signing bonus, again I think the Nationals should pounce. In the event that all eight are gone, which is likely, there are two college bats I think the Nationals should focus on. I'd take Boston College outfielder Sal Frelick out of the remaining players, and if he's gone along with the other eight, I'd go with UCLA shortstop Matt McLain. Then in the unlikely scenario that those are the top ten picks, I'm a bit lost because I think there's a slight break in the quality of players, so I would either pick Will Bednar or just grab Gunnar Hoglund, sign him below slot, then overspend at pick #47. Below is what would be my board if I were the Nationals picking at #11, not what I think their board is, color coded by how likely they are to be available. Red is definitely not, orange is probably not, yellow is 50-50, and green is most likely.

Marcelo Mayer, Jack Leiter, Henry Davis, Brady House, Kahlil Watson, Kumar Rocker, Jackson Jobe, Sal Frelick, Matt McLain, Will Bednar, Gunnar Hoglund

Without further introduction, here are the ten players I think the Nationals are most likely to end up with at #11, ordered by likelihood. I'm not a reporter, so these are more just guesses than anything else. Slot value is just over $4.54 million and the Nationals' overall bonus pool for their top ten rounds is $8.77 million.

1. RHP Jackson Jobe, Heritage Hall HS, OK
As I said in the previous paragraph, I don't think Jackson Jobe will make it out of the top ten, as he's getting interest as high as #3 to the Tigers. However, in the event that he does, I can absolutely see Mike Rizzo smashing Jobe's name into the keyboard or doing whatever he does to make his picks with extra zeal. The Oklahoma City product is relatively new to pitching, but his name has been rocketing up boards ever since his dominant summer a year ago. His fastball is now sitting comfortably in the low to mid 90's and has touched 98, but that's not his main weapon. Jobe's slider is arguably the best breaking ball in the entire high school class, coming in with absurd spin rates that cause it to shoot down and away from righties or into lefties at the last second. That feel for spin translates to his curveball, which is a distinct and above average pitch in its own right, and he possesses one of the better changeups in the high school class as well. Together with a clean delivery and notable athleticism, he consistently deals strikes and really has all the ingredients to be an impact starting pitcher. Aside from his demographic, that of an inherently risky high school righthander, Jobe only has one thing working against him – age. He'll turn 19 a few weeks after the draft, making him one of the older players in the class, but everything else is so good that that should not be a factor. He'll likely demand an enormous signing bonus, probably the highest on this list of ten, to keep from attending Mississippi, where he'll be draft-eligible as a sophomore in 2023.

2. RHP Ty Madden, Texas
2021 stats: 7-5, 2.45 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 137/44 K/BB in 113.2 IP.
While he is getting some looks in the back of the top ten and could end up in Colorado at #8 or Los Angeles at #9, there is a very good shot that Ty Madden is available for the Nationals at #11. The unquestioned ace of the most complete pitching staff in the country (sorry, Vanderbilt), Madden is everything the Nationals love – a big, durable, consistent performer who has the look of a mid-rotation starter. He combines arm strength with pitchability, creating the type of pitcher that does not grow on trees. Madden's fastball comes in with low to mid 90's velocity, getting up to 99 at times early in games, and he adds a potentially plus slider that plays very well off his fastball. His changeup can be a bit inconsistent, but when it's on, it gives him a third potentially above average pitch, which will help him pitch deep into games. He commands all three pitches very well, pounding the bottom of the strike zone and missing bats in bunches. If there's anything to nitpick with the Houston-area native, it's something called his VAA, or vertical approach angle. Because the 6'3" righty comes from such a high release point, everything he throws has significant downward plane, which plays very well around hitters knees and below. However, he has gotten hit harder when he leaves pitches up, and in today's launch angle-conscious game that has more hitters going for high VBA's – vertical barrel angles, – it will be especially difficult for him to be effective in that part of the zone in pro ball. Fortunately, his command means that he won't miss his spots often, and his velocity gives him some margin for error.

3. RHP Sam Bachman, Miami [OH]
2021 stats: 4-4, 1.81 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 93/17 K/BB in 59.2 IP.
Sam Bachman's draft outlook is probably about the same as Madden's with some teams interested in the back of the top ten but a good chance of reaching #11. If both he and Madden are available for the Nationals, it will be an interesting decision for Rizzo, as both pitchers seem to fit his models but for very different reasons. While Madden is durable and consistent, Bachman is more of a power arm that comes with significant durability questions, but we know Rizzo has never been one to shy away from injured or potentially-injury prone arms. Bachman's raw stuff is elite, perhaps the best in the entire class outside of the Vanderbilt duo of Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker. The 6'1" righty deals regularly in the mid 90's with his fastball and has touched as high as 101, but it's not just the velocity that makes it a special pitch. He also comes from an extremely low release point while still maintaining a three quarters arm slot, putting tremendous ride on the pitch that makes it play exceptionally well up in the zone. And with his velocity, even when he misses over the plate, it's tough to square up. Bachman also adds a plus slider that breaks late and tight, playing well off the fastball. As with Madden, his changeup has been a bit less consistent, but it too flashes above average and like Madden, he could have three plus pitches at the major league level. While he doesn't quite parallel the Longhorn ace in the command arena, his ability to hit his spots is trending upwards and he fills up the strike zone very consistently, setting himself apart from other data-friendly power arms. The drawback here is durability, as the Indianapolis-area native throws with considerable effort and some evaluators don't like his arm action. Additionally, he missed a few weeks this spring with arm soreness and I don't think he ever threw 100 pitches in a game, so he comes with considerable relief risk even if the pure stuff and command fit in the rotation. Personally, I'd pull the trigger on Bachman before Madden, but I'm not sure about Rizzo.

4. SS Matt McLain, UCLA
2021 stats: 9 HR, .333/.434/.579, 9 SB, 34/34 K/BB in 47 games.
Jackson Jobe, Ty Madden, and Sam Bachman seem like the clear frontrunners to me, so after those three this list definitely becomes guesswork. If the Nationals were to pass on an arm and pick up a bat, UCLA shortstop Matt McLain seems like the most likely bet to me. He was extremely well regarded coming out of his Los Angeles-area high school, but surprisingly turned down the Diamondbacks after being drafted 25th overall in 2018. His time at UCLA has been up and down, but there have been more ups and than downs and he was on a tear before going down with a broken thumb in May, then picked up where he left off in a brief return. Though he's just 5'11" and skinny at that, he has always possessed great feel to hit and has learned to drive the ball more and more consistently throughout his time in Los Angeles, now projecting for at least average power. He also tightened up the strike zone in 2021, aiding projections for a plus hit tool, and his plus speed enables him to be a factor on the basepaths. The jury is still out on whether he can stick at shortstop long term, as he has the athleticism to profile there but his feel for the spot has been inconsistent. Either way, he profiles as a plus defender at second base, so you're getting significant value on the defensive side to go along with his top-of-the-lineup offensive upside. Personally, I'd prefer McLain over both Madden and Bachman.

5. RHP Will Bednar, Mississippi State
2021 stats: 9-1, 3.12 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 139/26 K/BB in 92.1 IP.
When I first started working on this list, I didn't include Will Bednar, despite the fact that I personally would have considered him at #11 if I were picking. However, after dominating at the College World Series and allowing no hits in the final game, he seems to be much more of a realistic target for Mike Rizzo and co. Bednar has been trending straight up since he landed in Starkville with a 2.93 ERA and a 37% strikeout rate (162 in 107.2 innings) against top competition, and he can attack hitters in a lot of ways. His main weapon is a low to mid 90's fastball that can hit 96-97 early in games but usually settles into the 91-94 range, playing up because it has tremendous riding life that plays extremely well up in the zone. He adds a plus slider with extreme horizontal sweep, then can go to an average curve and changeup that he uses significantly less often. While the Pittsburgh-area native doesn't have pinpoint command, he generally fills up the strike zone and has gotten better at locating his pitches to all four quadrants even as his stuff has leapt forward. He has a durable 6'2" frame and looks the part of a #2 starter.

6. OF Sal Frelick, Boston College
2021 stats: 6 HR, .359/.443/.559, 13 SB, 28/27 K/BB in 48 games.
Sal Frelick's draft stock is in a similar place to McLain's, if perhaps a tick better, and I would prefer Frelick if both he and McLain were available. In fact, among the players with any significant chance to reach the Nationals at pick #11, Frelick is the one I want. He elevated his profile this year by coming out of the gate hot when most other first round bats stumbled, and he maintained the hot hitting to finish the season hitting .359/.443/.559 with just a 12.3% strikeout rate. Undersized at 5'9", he's an elite athlete that plays with a ton of energy, giving him the ability to impact the game in numerous ways. He makes a ton of contact with plus bat to ball skills and excellent adjustability in his left handed swing that helps him find the barrel even against tough pitches, and when he gets one over the plate, he has enough power to make you pay. The Boston-area native is a plus runner that will gladly steal a base or two and will stick in center field, though some have toyed with trying him at second base. Personally, I'd just leave him at center and let him run wild. If the Nationals drafted him, he would immediately become the most dynamic player in their system.

7. RHP Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi
2021 stats: 4-2, 2.87 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 96/17 K/BB in 62.2 IP.
#11 overall might be a bit early to nab a pitcher fresh off spring Tommy John surgery, but Mike Rizzo has never shied away from injured pitchers early in the draft and depending on who's available here, I wouldn't mind the pick either. Aside from a healthy right arm, Gunnar Hoglund has everything you look for in a starting pitching prospect – velocity, two offspeed pitches, command, a clean delivery, consistent performance, and an upward trajectory. His fastball previously sat effortlessly around 90, but the 6'4" righty added some juice in 2021 and ticked up to about 92-94, touching as high as 97 early in games. After mostly pitching off his fastball early in his career, he began to lean more on an improved slider in 2021 that touched the upper 80's, getting consistently above average grades. And as the season moved on, he began incorporating a surprisingly good changeup more and more, giving him three above average pitches to work with. On top of all of that, he has regularly been noted as having some of the best command in the class, easily locating all of his pitches where he wants them. There are no weaknesses in this profile and given that Tommy John is becoming more and more of a regularity, the Tampa-area native could present Rizzo with a really interesting discount option. From there, Mike can overspend at pick #47, perhaps on a high school arm like Frank Mozzicato, Ben Kudrna, or Maddux Bruns, though I would personally prefer Mozzicato or Kudrna to Bruns (and I'd prefer a high school bat over all three of them, though I doubt Rizzo would go that route).

8. OF Colton Cowser, Sam Houston State
2021 stats: 16 HR, .374/.490/.680, 17 SB, 32/42 K/BB in 55 games.
Fun fact, Colton Cowser was actually teammates with Ty Madden at Cypress Ranch High School in the Houston suburbs, and they were actually the third and fourth best prospects on that team at the time behind 2019 draftees JJ Goss (Rays, 36th overall) and Matthew Thompson (White Sox, 45th overall). He's been on a tear since late March, once homering four times in two games and another time going deep in five consecutive games, all while pushing his on-base percentage close to .500. Evaluators have long been waiting for him to grow into his 6'3" frame and start tapping his power, and he showed this year he has a chance to be average in that regard. Cowser is also an excellent contact hitter who consistently puts together professional at bats, showing that with significantly more walks (42) than strikeouts (32) in 2021. Though he wasn't facing the toughest competition in the Southland Conference, he did perform well with the US Collegiate National Team back in 2019, so evaluators are very comfortable with his offensive profile. He's also an above average runner who can swipe a base and be a net-positive in the outfield, where he projects as a fringy centerfielder or an above average corner guy. Cowser profiles as a potential leadoff guy who can hit 15-20 home runs per season for the Nationals down the line.

9. RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt
2021 stats: 14-4, 2.73 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 179/39 K/BB in 122 IP.
I think it's highly unlikely Kumar Rocker makes it all the way to the Nationals. There has been some talk of him going as high as fifth overall to the Orioles, while the Diamondbacks at #6 and the Royals at #7 have shown interest as well. But if the chips fall that way and Rocker gets out of the top ten, I absolutely do not see Mike Rizzo letting him go any further. At this point, we all know the book on Kumar. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's deep into games, with his extension making the pitch play up. Rocker's slider is one of the best pitches in college baseball when he's commanding it, making even advanced hitters look like absolute fools. He throws a cutter that has a chance to be an above average pitch and while he has shown a changeup in the past, he didn't use it much in 2021 and it wasn't particularly effective when he broke it out late in the season. Rocker has also been noted as a control-over-command pitcher throughout his career, one who has no trouble filling up the strike zone or eliciting chases but who struggles to hit spots within the zone. Regardless, his exceptional track record in the SEC and strong makeup that enables him to step up when the lights shine the brightest will not be lost on scouting directors come draft day, and the stuff is so good that he can afford merely average command in pro ball and still succeed. If the command steps up from 50 to 55, he'll be an ace.

10. RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS, FL
Eleventh overall feels a touch too early to grab Andrew Painter, but Mike Rizzo loves himself a high school pitcher and if Jackson Jobe is off the board, he could come into consideration. Painter entered the spring as the top pitching prospect in the high school class, but a combination of a loud spring from Jobe and a slow start for Painter changed that. He turned it around as the season went on, helping most traditional evaluators feel comfortable that he is still the second best. Painter is a huge, 6'6" righthander that combines physical projection with present stuff and pitchability. His fastball gets up to 95-96 without much effort, and he holds the low 90's deep into games. The South Florida product adds a pair of distinct, above average breaking balls, while his changeup is more advanced than that of most high school pitchers. He commands everything well, giving him an extremely well-rounded profile at a young age that reminds some of Mick Abel a year ago, albeit with less glowing numbers on the analytic side. The reason Painter might belong closer to the back of the first round is just that, the analytics, as some see a more traditional arsenal that doesn't stand out in today's game of high spin rates. Personally, I see Gage Jump and Chase Petty as the second and third best high school pitchers in the class, but my guess is the Nationals have Painter as #2 behind Jobe. He'll likely be an expensive sign with a Florida commitment, but at #11, I don't see him going above slot value.

Potential Second Round Targets

I mentioned a few times that the Nationals might elect to save some money early on with a pick like Gunnar Hoglund or Gavin Williams, or perhaps even on any number of other players on this list not named Jobe or Rocker (albeit less), and that would enable them to go after an expensive high schooler in the second round at pick #47. Knowing the Nationals, that would likely be a high school pitcher. Some options there:

LHP Frank Mozzicato, East Catholic HS, CT
Mozzicato has been flying up boards late in the spring once the Connecticut high school season finally got started, absolutely dominating his Hartford-area competition with a low 90's fastball and one of the best curveballs in the high school class. He's young for the class and has projection remaining in his 6'3" frame, but that projection is important considering he only tops out at 93 as of now. He's a UConn recruit.

RHP Ben Kudrna, Blue Valley Southwest HS, KS
Kudrna hasn't burst onto the scene quite like Mozzicato, but he's been quietly sliding up boards for a long time now. His fastball has ticked up into the mid 90's and he fills up the strike zone with an above average slider and changeup, all from a clean, repeatable delivery. The Kansas City-area product doesn't quite have the bat-missing stuff to project as an ace, but he has a higher floor than most high school pitchers. He's committed to LSU.

LHP Maddux Bruns, UMS-Wright Prep HS, AL
Named after Greg Maddux, this 6'2" lefty has a bit of a different profile. The Mobile native has huge raw stuff, led by a fastball that has reportedly touches the upper 90's, as well as a plus curveball and an above average slider. It's power, power, power, but at this point he has extremely inconsistent command that can be anywhere from average to non-playable. Bruns is one day shy of a full year older than Mozzicato, so he's already 19 and will be draft-eligible after two years at Mississippi State if he gets there. I would prefer both Mozzicato and Kudrna heavily to Bruns.

This is an extremely deep class of high school bats, so there will undoubtedly be numerous available at #47 that really shouldn't be there. They'll be very expensive at this point and will require an above-slot bonus, but if the Nationals save money at pick #11, they should be able to get one. I think it's much more likely they go for a pitcher, but I would really like one of the bats.

SS Max Muncy, Thousand Oaks HS, CA
No, not that Max Muncy. This Muncy (no relation) really stands out for his feel for the game, and even if he's not the most athletic player in the class, he understands his body and maximizes the production he gets out of his 6'1" frame. He has a chance to be a very well-rounded player who could improve quickly with pro coaching and conditioning. He's committed to Arkansas.

3B Wes Kath, Desert Mountain HS, AZ
Kath has been trending up this spring as one of the most well-rounded bats in the West. He combines a strong feel to hit with impressive raw power in his sturdy, 6'3" frame, giving him the chance for both high on-base percentages and high slugging percentages. He has the arm for third base and may be able to stick there. Kath is an Arizona State commit.

SS James Triantos, James Madison HS, VA
Okay, pick #47 might be just a little bit rich for James Triantos, but we have to include the local kid. Oh yeah, and he plays at my alma mater and I used to take batting practice in his backyard, so while I haven't seen him hit since he was in middle school, I'm following this one pretty closely. Triantos has absolutely ripped the cover off the ball this spring, helping lead Madison High School in Vienna to its first state championship since 2015, a team which I was on. He produces great leverage through the zone that gives him power to all fields, and he simply hasn't swung and missed this spring, either. He's probably a third baseman long term and while he's a UNC commit, signability likely won't be an issue this early.

2021 MLB Draft: Ten Options for the Nationals at pick #11 (April update)

Back in February, before the season started, I highlighted ten players I could see the Nationals taking with the eleventh overall pick. Now in April, a lot has changed, so I'll spare the introduction that can be found in the original article and hop right into it. With nearly three months to go, a lot can and will still change, but here is where things stand now. Ranking on my most recent top 75 in parentheses.

RHP Ty Madden, Texas (#11)
2019-2020: 7-1, 2.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 63/28 K/BB in 67.1 IP.
2021: 4-1, 1.69 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 57/18 K/BB in 53.1 IP.
As I mentioned last time, this one really fits with the Nationals' drafting style. Ty Madden is your traditional, tall, consistent right hander with no glaring flaws to his game. His low to mid 90's fastball has topped out at 99 this spring, and he commands it well to both sides of the plate. He adds a slider that is usually at least average and flashes plus, as well as a consistently above average changeup. Combine three at least above average pitches with consistent command and a durable frame, and you have a prototypical starting pitcher. As he's continued to stay healthy and pound the strike zone, worries have faded over his slightly funky arm action that features some stab in the back, and instead focus on the "old school" steep plane on his pitches. Coming from straight over the top, his VAA (vertical approach angle) is difficult to lift with a traditional hitting approach, but won't miss as many bats as a flatter, Jack Leiter-esque fastball. Still, with an excellent spring that has featured seven consecutive starts of at least six innings and no more than two runs or three walks, he's as safe a bet as anybody in this draft to become a mid-rotation starter, something the Nationals would love.

RHP Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi (#8)
2019-2020: 6-3, 4.24 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 90/18 K/BB in 91.1 IP.
2021: 3-1, 2.57 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 78/16 K/BB in 49 IP.
Gunnar Hoglund was in the "other possibilities" section of this list last time, but a bump in velocity puts him squarely in the conversation for Washington at pick #11, if he even makes it out of the top ten. Despite touching 96 in high school, Hoglund was generally around 90 throughout his first two years at Ole Miss, instead focusing deploying his plus command. He threw an average slider that flashed above average, as well as a seldom-used changeup, but mostly pitched off that fastball by dotting it right where he wanted it. Even though we knew he had more velocity in the tank, it was still a back-of-the-first-round profile until he proved it. Well, in 2021, he proved it. I was at Globe Life Field in Arlington to catch his start against Texas Tech, where he came out throwing 94-95 in the first inning and now two months later, he hasn't looked back. Holding that same plus command, Hoglund is regularly in the low to mid 90's nowadays with an effortless delivery that screams durability. His slider has taken a big step forward and is regularly above average, flashing plus, and it's topping out around 87-88, which was the lower end of his fastball velocity a year ago. He's also broken out that changeup more often and it's looking like a solidly above average pitch as well. At this point, I would prefer the Nationals draft Hoglund to Madden, but he might not even make it this far if he keeps pitching like this.

RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt (#3)
2019-2020: 14-6, 3.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 142/29 K/BB in 114.2 IP.
2021: 7-1, 1.88 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 73/14 K/BB in 48 IP.
Wait, what? Isn't Kumar Rocker supposed to be a candidate at 1-1? Well, his stock his slipping just a little bit right now. If the draft were today, he wouldn't make it to the Nationals at pick #11, but the draft is not today and he might be trending in that direction. For most of his time at Vanderbilt, the big righty has sat in the mid 90's with his fastball and touched 97-98 at the high end, but over his past few starts, that velocity has dipped pretty significantly into the low 90's. When you're talking about the very top of the draft, where teams are making potentially franchise-altering decisions, that's a big deal. There are teams wondering whether it's health related, fatigue related, or what, but he's going to want to answer that question definitively before July. Still, we're talking about a kid with great extension and a flat VAA (remember Madden had a steep VAA) that makes his fastball play above its velocity, and while his command is not pinpoint, he's been very consistent about landing the pitch for strikes (though the quality of those strikes has been nitpicked). He also adds arguably the best breaking ball in the class, an elite slider that crushes souls and could get big league hitters out right now. Rocker hasn't used his changeup as much, but it does flash above average. If his velocity comes back before the draft, it's highly unlikely he's available to the Nationals at pick #11, but continued fluctuations coupled with fastball command questions (i.e., hitting spots) could push him outside the top ten. So long as he stays healthy and nothing drastic happens, I see the Nationals as a potential floor for him.

SS Matt McLain, UCLA (#23)
2019-2020: 7 HR, .244/.306/.411, 7 SB, 77/21 K/BB in 74 games.
2021: 6 HR, .314/.411/.542, 4 SB, 20/19 K/BB in 29 games.
I mentioned Matt McLain as an option for the Nationals back in February, and after a relatively slow start to the season, he was trending away from this list. However, he's now picked up a hit in sixteen of his last seventeen games and at one point hit four home runs in four games against Washington and Stanford, pushing his name back into consideration here just outside the top ten. McLain has no one flashy tool, but is instead what you call a "gamer" – the kid can just play. Despite standing a skinny 5'11", his athleticism and strong feel for the barrel have enabled him to tap more and more power throughout his amateur career, and that power showed up with wood bats as well in an exceptional turn through the California Collegiate League over the summer. He has reduced the swing and miss in his game as well, dropping his strikeout rate from 25.7% as a freshman to 20.3% as a sophomore and 14.2% this year as a junior. Meanwhile, his walk rate climbed from 6.8% and 6.3% over his first two years to 13.5% this year. A strong athlete, he is also a plus runner and has an outside chance at sticking at shortstop, though his feel to play the position at a major league level is questionable and he might fit better at second or third base. Overall, we're talking about a kid who can impact a baseball game in a lot of ways, and for a traditional team like the Nationals, a 15-20 home run bat with relatively high batting averages and an infield glove sounds like a fit. An August birthday makes him relatively old for the class, and that turns off some teams, but the Nationals did pop fellow August baby Cade Cavalli in the first round last year.

OF Colton Cowser, Sam Houston State (#28)
2019-2020: 8 HR, .339/.436/.554, 14 SB, 38/34 K/BB in 70 games.
2021: 12 HR, .351/.486/.730, 9 SB, 23/24 K/BB in 31 games.
Colton Cowser, like his alliterative counterpart Matt McLain, was featured on this list back in February, and he's on a similar, if more extreme, trajectory. Cowser was excellent as a freshman (.361/.450/.602) but never really got going in his shortened sophomore season (.255/.379/.364), then got off to a slow start in 2021 that caused many in the industry (myself included) to sour on him a bit. I actually dropped him as low as #41 at one point. However, he clubbed four home runs in two games against Northwestern State and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi to bust out of that slump in a big way, then later homered in five consecutive games against Central Arkansas, Texas A&M, and New Orleans. Now that he's hot again, there is a lot to like in this profile. Ty Madden's high school teammate has a very strong feel for hitting, something he showed on a national stage with the US Collegiate National Team back in 2019. He has a flat left handed swing that is more geared for line drives than fly balls, but he finds that barrel extremely frequently against the so-so Southland Conference pitching he faces at Sam Houston State. With a wiry 6'3" frame, it's easy to see him tacking on a bit more power, though he will need to tinker with his swing to get there consistently against pro pitching. Cowser, like McLain, is a plus runner, though as an outfielder he's working to prove he can stick in center field. In a year without many viable college bats, a guy like Cowser who can impact the game in a lot of ways sticks out.

OF Sal Frelick, Boston College (#12)
2019-2020: 6 HR, .332/.428/.486, 25 SB, 22/33 K/BB in 54 games.
2021: 5 HR, .360/.438/.576, 8 SB, 15/16 K/BB in 30 games.
Here's a new name. Coming into the season, Sal Frelick was an interesting back-of-the-first-round type who could impact the game in a lot of ways (that's three straight players I've used that verbiage for) but didn't necessarily stick out. Halfway through the season, boy does he stick out as arguably the second best college position player out there (at this point, there's probably no catching Henry Davis). The Massachusetts native has been blasting the ball around the field with ferocity this season, finding the barrel extremely consistently with elite bat to ball skills and wiry strength. In the past, he's often sold out for contact by putting bad (but successful) swings on bad pitches, and this year he's doing more damage and getting his "A" swing off more often. Described as a "ridiculous athlete," he plays a great center field with plus speed and could even fit at second base if needed. Some teams might be scared off by the size in this part of the draft, but that would be foolish and Frelick has every chance to become an impact, every day center fielder with 15-20 home run power (perhaps more), high on-base percentages, and plenty of stolen bases. Between McLain and Cowser, Frelick is probably the least likely to still be on the board when the Nationals pick.

RHP Jackson Jobe, Heritage Hall HS [OK] (#16)
This might be a bit of a reach unless they under slot him, but I do want to include a couple of high school pitchers for a team that has a history with them (see Mason Denaburg, Lucas Giolito). Jackson Jobe is an extremely interesting pitcher out of the Oklahoma City high school ranks, and could give the Nationals a second straight first round Okie pitcher after Tulsa-native and Sooner star Cade Cavalli last year. Relatively new to pitching, the 6'2" righty was better prospect as a hitter until a huge summer on the showcase circuit as a pitcher last year. He has a fastball that sits in the low to mid 90's in short stints and gets up to 95-96, but the real story is his slider. While Kumar Rocker has the best breaking ball in the college class, Jobe's slider is the best in the high school class with ridiculous spin rates well north of 3000 RPM's. Its bite is late, it's tight, and it's just a wicked pitch overall. He also adds a curveball and a changeup that flash above average, and by staying healthy and filling up the strike zone this spring, he has added confidence that he'll stick in the rotation. Jobe is old for the class and will turn 19 slightly after the draft, but even if that did bother the Nationals, the fact that he's relatively new to pitching should offset it. He is committed to Ole Miss but in the top half of the first round, I don't expect him to be too expensive.

RHP Bubba Chandler, North Oconee HS [GA] (#29)
Same deal as Jackson Jobe here – this would probably be a reach unless he signed well below slot, but the Nationals aren't afraid of high school pitchers and Bubba Chandler seems like a guy they would like. Pitching at Kumar Rocker's alma mater near Athens, Georgia, Chandler is a ridiculous athlete who is actually committed to Clemson to play quarterback as well. If you follow college football at all, you know the enormity of that distinction – kid's a stud. Heading into the spring, it seemed unlikely that his projected second to fourth round draft range would deter him away from Dabo Swinney's program, but he's had some of the most helium of any high schooler in the country this spring. Does that push him all the way up to the Nationals at pick #11? Probably not, but we can still discuss it. Chandler is a 6'3" righty with a fastball that has leapt into the mid 90's, touching 97, and his command has held solid as well. He adds a sharp curveball that looks like one of the best breakers in the class at its best, a new slider that brings a more horizontal look, and a changeup that is quickly becoming a weapon in its own right. Combine that with obviously immense athleticism and you have a very, very interesting arm to buy early in the draft. That Clemson commitment will make him very expensive if he were picked closer to the back of the first round, but here at the eleventh pick you could probably under slot him.

SS Kahlil Watson, Wake Forest HS [NC] (#7)
We'll finish up with a couple of bats. While Bubba Chandler might be a reach here, Kahlil Watson might not even make it to pick #11 with the way he's trending. If he is available, the Nationals would be smart to snatch him up. Though Raleigh-Durham is Braves country in reality, his hometown of Wake Forest, NC is technically closer to Washington than it is to Atlanta and I'll call that a hometown pick. Watson is a loud player in every sense of the word, but the first thing you notice is his swing. He generates tremendous torque from the left side with a vicious uppercut, giving him plus raw power despite a smaller 5'9" frame. Despite the ferocity of his swing, it's a controlled operation and he's made consistent contact both on the showcase circuit and this spring in North Carolina. Watson also showcases plus speed that makes him a threat on the bases, and combined with his strong arm makes him a good bet to stick at shortstop. A high-energy player that is fun to watch on the diamond, he has face-of-the-franchise upside if he reaches it. For now, he's probably just outside that top tier of high school hitters (Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawlar, Brady House) just due to a hit tool that's more average than above average, but he could very well be gone anyways in the top ten. He's committed to NC State and will be expensive.

OF James Wood, IMG Academy [FL] (#9)
This one would really be a hometown pick, as James Wood grew up in Olney, Maryland, about twenty miles due north of Nationals Park. He attends the famed IMG Academy down in Florida along with numerous other 2021 and 2022 draft prospects, where he's actually their second best draft prospect behind 2022's Elijah Green. Wood is a towering 6'6" slugger who can absolutely punish a baseball when he connects, but the separating factor is actually his hit tool. He makes surprisingly easy contact for a hitter so big and so strong, identifying balls and strikes well against elite competition. That makes him all the more dangerous and has earned him comparisons to Zac Veen, who went ninth overall to the Rockies last year, though Wood has more present power. He's an easygoing kid who plays the game with an ultra-low heartbeat, somewhat the opposite of Kahlil Watson above him on this list, letting his play do the talking. For now, he's a good athlete as well who can actually handle center field, but he'll likely slow down as he ages and right field is probably the best fit with his cannon arm. Wood has true middle-of-the-order upside as a kid who could hit 30+ home runs per season with high on-base percentages. Committed to Mississippi State, he will likely be an expensive sign.

A few other possibilities
RHP McCade Brown, Indiana
OF Christian Franklin, Arkansas
C Luca Tresh, North Carolina State
RHP Chase Petty, Mainland Regional HS [NJ]
C Harry Ford, North Cobb HS [GA]

Updates on those mentioned last time

RHP Richard Fitts, Auburn (#43): 0-3, 7.71 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 16/6 K/BB in 18.2 IP.
Fitts had a chance to pitch himself into top ten consideration with a strong spring, but instead he lost his rotation spot at Auburn as he's proven more hittable than expected despite filling up the strike zone relatively well. Analytics-driven teams will still like his high spin fastball and pair of nice secondaries, but because he hasn't proven he can start, he figures to go closer to the back of the first round at best.

LHP Steven Hajjar, Michigan (#56): 1-0, 2.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 42/10 K/BB in 35.1 IP.
It's been a much stronger season for Hajjar than for Fitts, but Hajjar was a long shot two months ago and hasn't taken the step forward he needed. His velocity is still relatively fringy around 90, peaking into the low 90's, which isn't enough this early in the draft. He has promising secondaries and has thrown more consistent strikes in 2021, so he'll still be a strong option in the second round, perhaps even for the Nationals at pick #47.

RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State (#37): 2-3, 6.67 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 25/12 K/BB in 29.2 IP.
It's been an unfortunate season for Jaden Hill at every step of the way. A potential top five pick coming into the season, concerns started to crop up when his slider proved more inconsistent than expected and he failed to miss as many bats with his fastball as some scouts had hoped. Then on April 2nd in a highly touted matchup against potential first overall pick Jack Leiter, he walked off the field holding his elbow and ended up needing Tommy John surgery. It is truly remarkable how Jaden Hill has transformed himself as a pitcher over three years in Baton Rouge, but now with two season-ending injuries in three years and no consistent track record of starting, it's really hard to project him as a long term starter in the big leagues. I don't think the Nationals would bite at #11, but if he slipped to #47 in the second round, I could see them paying him well above slot to sign.

3B Alex Binelas, Louisville (#40): 7 HR, .231/.319/.496, 2 SB, 30/12 K/BB in 30 games.
It hasn't exactly been smooth sailing for Alex Binelas. After taking the ACC by storm as a freshman (.291/.383/.612), he played just two games a sophomore due to a broken hand. Healthy in 2021, he struggled mightily out of the gate with just one hit in his first six games against relatively weak competition. He's since shown glimpses of the star he was as a freshman, including a four game stretch against NC State, Western Kentucky, and Notre Dame in which he went 9-15 with three home runs, but overall he just hasn't been able to recover the stock he lost with those early season struggles. Combine that with a move to first base for Louisville, and he fits closer to the back of the first round at best right now.

RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS [FL] (#26)
I considered including Andrew Painter on this list again this time around, but ultimately I opted for the two prep arms trending up (Jackson Jobe and Bubba Chandler) rather than one trending down. Painter's stock isn't crashing, per se, but he's no longer the consensus top pitcher in the class after a spring where his command has been a bit shakier than before and he's been hit a little harder. There's still a lot to like in a 6'6" right hander who can hit the mid 90's, adds a full arsenal, and shows well above average command at times, but not at pick #11. He could be an option for the Nationals at pick #47 if they want to sign him way above slot. He's committed to Florida and will want first round money no matter what.

SS Brady House, Winder-Barrow HS [GA] (#5)
Unlike the other names that I included last time but didn't this time, Brady House isn't slipping. Instead, he's continued to wow evaluators with his huge tool set and I think it's highly unlikely he gets to the Nationals at pick #11 unless his signing bonus demands are outrageous. If House goes out and lights up the pre-draft showcases like I expect him to, we'll see him go well within the top ten picks.

2021 MLB Draft: Ten preseason picks for first overall

Some years, you have a clear first overall pick. Going back, that was the case in the past three drafts, when we saw Auburn's Casey Mize, Oregon State's Adley Rutschman, and Arizona State's Spencer Torkelson cruise to the 1-1 slot. As we head into the 2021 season, we have a frontrunner in Vanderbilt's Kumar Rocker, but he's far from a slam dunk and there are numerous players that could catch him. A lot can and will change between now and July 11th, but for now, here are ten names with a chance to land in Pittsburgh at first overall.

The Frontrunner: RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt
One of the top recruits to make it to campus in 2018, Kumar Rocker has only elevated his profile in the time since. Through 27 appearances (19 starts), he has 14-6 with a 3.06 ERA and a 142/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.2 innings against Vanderbilt's tough schedule, including a nineteen strikeout no-hitter of Duke in the 2019 Nashville Super Regional. The Georgian is an imposing figure at a listed 6'4", 255 pounds, and he brings the stuff to match. Rocker's fastball sits in the mid 90's and touches 99, and he adds in a plus-plus slider with devastating late bite and a well above average changeup with great sink. His command isn't pinpoint, but he fills up the strike zone consistently. His delivery has a few extra moving parts, but it's fluid and he repeats it extremely well. At this point, Rocker emphatically checks all the boxes you want to see at the top of the draft: high-end velocity, a true putaway pitch, a third potential plus pitch, durability, and track record. If we want to nitpick, which you have to at the top of the draft, he doesn't get a ton of swings and misses on his fastball and could be susceptible to the long ball in the majors.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Rocker is in the driver's seat, so he mostly needs to just maintain. That means staying healthy (obviously), continuing to fill up the strike zone, and continuing to miss bats at the ridiculous pace he has in the past. If he wants to truly separate from the pack, getting more whiffs on that fastball would be nice, as would advancing his command (ability to hit spots) to above average to match that above average control (ability to throw strikes).

Quietly Dominant: RHP Jack Leiter, Vanderbilt
Though Kumar Rocker is currently the favorite to go first overall, there are some who think he's the second best pitcher on his own team. Jack Leiter, like Rocker, arrived on campus as one of the top recruits in the country, and he turned heads by firing five innings of one hit ball against Evansville in his first college game. However, because he was a full year older than his graduating class, he's eligible as a sophomore and will turn 21 in April. While Rocker stands out for his stuff while showing strong pitchability, Leiter is the opposite in that he stands out for his pitchability while also showing strong stuff. On the shorter side at six feet tall, his fastball sits in the low 90's but plays up due to his elite ability to release the ball out front, giving him a combination of great extension and a very low (i.e. good) release height. He flips in a curveball in the 70's that already has the depth, and it could be a plus pitch if he continues to put more power behind it. There's a relatively new slider that flashes above average and could be plus in time, while his changeup plays average. Combine that with above average command and plus overall feel for pitching, and you have the building blocks of a big league starter who will stick around for a long time.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Leiter does have some work. Since he didn't graduate high school until he was well past his 19th birthday, he's only gotten to throw 15.2 innings in college so far. While nobody doubts his ability, he has to go out and prove it against Vanderbilt's SEC schedule. Leiter's lack of elite velocity (both on his fastball and his secondaries) might also turn off some evaluators, but he reportedly hit 97 with his fastball in fall practice and getting more consistently into the mid 90's this spring (he was more 90-94 as a freshman) could give him the final bump.

Leading the High School Class: SS Jordan Lawlar, Jesuit HS [TX]
Two years ago, a high school shortstop from the Dallas-Fort Worth Mid-Cities went second overall to the Kansas City Royals, and now Irving native Jordan Lawlar finds his stock at a similar level to Southlake native Bobby Witt Jr. Hailing from the same Jesuit High School program that produced Josh Bell, Kyle Muller, and golfer Jordan Spieth, Lawlar stands at the top of a strong class of high school bats. He stands out first and foremost for his strong feel for the game, making heads up plays consistently on both sides of the ball. He shows a clean swing from the right side, producing plenty of hard, line drive contact against the top arms in the class with ease. Much more than just a slap hitter, the 6'2" teenager has been growing into some legitimate power and now projects for 15-20 home runs per season, perhaps even more, to go along with those high on-base percentages. He's also one of the better defenders in the class and will stick at shortstop, making his bat look even better, and his plus speed means that you'd be hard pressed to find a hole in his game. The only knock on Lawlar at this point is his age, as a July birthday means he'll already be 19 on draft day. The rest of his profile is so strong, though, that it's hard to hold that against him.
What he needs to do to go first overall: He's so close, so the answer is not much other than maintain. Tapping his power more consistently while continuing to get on base at a high clip would certainly help, as it's the only place he doesn't grade out as true plus. Otherwise, if the Vanderbilt commit continues to steal the show this spring like he did over the summer, he's right there.

Right Behind Lawlar: SS Marcelo Mayer, Eastlake HS [CA]
While Jordan Lawlar has but some narrow daylight between himself and the rest of the high school class, Marcelo Mayer is right on his heels. Mayer, like Lawlar, comes from a powerhouse program, with suburban San Diego's Eastlake High School having produced Adrian Gonzalez, Casey Schmitt, and Keoni Cavaco. Also like Lawlar, he has great feel for the game and an easy plus hit tool, but comes with perhaps even more power projection due to an explosive, but clean, left handed swing and a projectable 6'3" frame. He's also an even better shortstop than Lawlar, but lacks his counterpart's plus speed on the bases. Personally, I like Mayer's ceiling even better than I do Lawlar's, with a real possibility of 25 home runs per season with high on-base percentages and potential Gold Glove defense at a premium position.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Mayer needs to tap his power in games. He's done so occasionally, but while he has the lead over Lawlar in terms of power projection, Lawlar has tapped his more consistently to this point. By closing the gap between his present and projected power, Mayer can help scouts feel more confident he'll tap his massive ceiling. Given that the Southern California commit already possesses exceptional feel for the barrel, nobody's all that concerned anyways.

Tools and Track Record: OF Jud Fabian, Florida
Jud Fabian graduated high school a year early and got to campus at Florida just before his 18th birthday, and now he won't turn 21 until multiple months after the draft. After a respectable freshman campaign (.232/.353/.411), Fabian broke out as a sophomore (.294/.407/.603, 5 HR in 17 games) and now has a pair of strong summers in the Cape Cod League and Florida Collegiate League under his belt. Listed at 6'2", he packs above average raw power into his athletic frame and taps it consistently in games due to his strong plate discipline. He's also an above average runner with the chance to stick in center field, meaning he can impact the game in as many ways as anybody in this class. If there's one concern for the Ocala native, it's the pure bat to ball skills, as he has some minor swing and miss concerns in the zone despite good pitch recognition and selection.
What he needs to do to go first overall: For me personally, cutting down on swing and miss in the zone would be a big plus. It's not something I'm particularly concerned about, but it brings what could be a 55 or 60 hit tool based on his plate discipline down to more of a 50. That could help him really showcase his power, and with all the walks he draws and his ability to steal bases and play up the middle, we could have a pretty complete ballplayer in that case that would be hard to turn down.

Loud Stuff, Quiet Track Record: RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State
Pitch for pitch, Kumar Rocker might not have the best stuff in this class – that may very well be LSU's Jaden Hill. Hailing from a small town outside Texarkana, Hill was another big recruit who has seen his stuff improve considerably in Baton Rouge. Originally a fastball/changeup pitcher, he touched the upper 90's in his few short stints in game action and still shows plus potential with his changeup. The difference between now and three years ago, however, is his slider, which has improved from a fringy offering to a true plus pitch that flashes plus-plus. The Arkansas native is also working on a cutter that flashes above average, rounding out his arsenal. Hill has never had trouble throwing strikes and now that his quarterback career is through, the 6'4", 235 pounder looks the part of a durable starter as well.
What he needs to do to go first overall: In one sentence, he needs his stuff to be just as loud at the end of the season as it is at the start. Injuries as a freshman plus the coronavirus shutdown have limited him to 21.2 innings, mostly as a reliever, so he simply has not proven that his stuff can hold up over long stretches. To this point, Hill has done nothing to prove he can't be a front of the rotation type, so he just needs to prove he can.

The Pure Bat: C Adrian Del Castillo, Miami
The title says it all here – there isn't a more professional hitter in this class than Adrian Del Castillo. The Miami native is a career .336/.430/.571 hitter for the Hurricanes with 14 home runs and significantly more walks (43) than strikeouts (32), showing the calm, confident, mature hitting ability that few can rival. Though he's just 5'11" and stockily built at that, he possesses above average raw power that he taps consistently in games to go along with his plus hit tool. Del Castillo's short-to-it, long-through-it swing is perfectly geared for putting barrel to baseball, combining with his plus plate discipline to help him execute as consistently as anyone. On defense, there are more question marks. He carries over his feel for the game behind the plate, showing good fundamentals and an accurate arm, but he lacks the athleticism and explosiveness you'd like to see in a catching prospect. He's working hard to improve back there, but it's far from a guarantee at this point.
What he needs to do to go first overall: As far as the bat goes, he just has to maintain. However, there needs to be improvement in the glove. If Del Castillo has to move off catcher, 5'11" is a little short for first base and his below average speed and unspectacular arm would limit him to a mediocre left field. If he can get a little smoother behind the plate, showing better ability to get down and block balls in the dirt/put a little more power on his throws, scouts can be more confident they won't have to accept a defensive liability at 1B/LF. Honestly, if he proves he can stick behind the plate this spring, consider Adrian Del Castillo a top-three candidate to go first overall.

The Former First Rounder: SS Matt McLain, UCLA
While Vanderbilt's Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter had first round pedigree coming out of high school, Matt McLain was actually drafted 25th overall in 2018, but did not sign with the Diamondbacks. His freshman season was disappointing (.203/.276/.355), but since the calendar flipped to 2020, McLain has seen his stock explode. He hit .397/.422/.621 in thirteen games as a sophomore, then a ridiculous .436/.536/.773 with seven home runs over the summer in the California Collegiate League. The Los Angeles-area native appears slight in stature at 5'11", but he's an explosive athlete that churns out plus run times and hits for more power than you'd expect. His quick right handed swing enables him to make plenty of hard contact, also helping that power play up to average so far, with the chance to get to above average. He can be a bit choppy at shortstop but overall projects to stick there with a strong arm and plenty of speed. McLain's main drawback is a susceptibility to offspeed stuff, part of an overall aggressive approach that can limit his on-base percentages.
What he needs to do to go first overall: McLain will always be projected as a hit-over-power guy, so in order to make his way to the very top of the class, he'll naturally need to prove that hit tool is rock-solid. To do that, he'll need to lay off breaking balls out of the zone in 2021, and overall bring his walk rate up considerably. That walk rate is 6.7% for his career, so we'd really like to see something in the double digits in 2021 with a reduction in the strikeout rate.

The Next Texas Horse: RHP Ty Madden, Texas
Ty Madden has been trending up ever since his high school days in the Houston suburbs, where he was teammates with JJ Goss (Rays, comp round 2019), Matthew Thompson (White Sox, second round 2019), and Colton Cowser (Sam Houston State, likely first round 2021). Madden had a 3.40 ERA and a 37/24 strikeout to walk ratio in 42.1 innings as a freshman, then ramped that up to a 1.80 ERA and a 26/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 25 innings as a sophomore. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, topping out around 96-97 in games and as high as 99 in fall practice, and the pitch plays up further due to the tough angle and run he puts on it. His slider has been relatively inconsistent, shortening up at times but showing true plus at others. Madden also possesses one of the better changeups in the class, an above average pitch that is more consistent than his slider. His command has steadily improved and he has no trouble filling up the strike zone nowadays, and while some stabbing motion in the back of his delivery and a funky arm path worry some scouts, he has been durable to this point.
What he needs to do to go first overall: There aren't any giant leaps that need to be made. Rather, incremental improvements in various parts of his game could do the trick for the 6'3" right hander. Maintaining his low to mid 90's fastball over a full season, getting a little more consistent with that slider, and refining his command just a touch would all help. There's really not much to dislike in Madden's game, so he just needs to continue to prove it.

The Sleeper: RHP Ryan Cusick, Wake Forest
I don't think Ryan Cusick is one of the ten most likely players to go first overall, but it's not impossible and it's really fun to think about. Hailing from the same Connecticut boarding school, the Avon Old Farms School, that produced George Springer and 2020 Orioles second rounder Hudson Haskin, Cusick's 5.63 ERA and 98/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 innings highlight the up and down nature of his career in Winston-Salem. The Boston-area native has a wicked fastball that can touch 97-98 in games with great ride that makes it tough to square up, though he can dip into the low 90's fairly frequently. His slider flashes true plus, perhaps even plus-plus, but frequently flattens out into a below average pitch. He also throws an average changeup and can flip in a slurvy curveball. His command has been wildly inconsistent, from fringe average as a freshman to well below average as a sophomore (18 walks in 22.1 innings) and back to fringe average in summer ball. Cusick reaches his velocity pretty easily, and he's gotten more coordinated with his lanky 6'6" frame and explosive stuff.
What he needs to do to go first overall: A lot. Cusick took a big step forward with an exceptional summer in the Coastal Plain League (1.14 ERA, 40/9 K/BB), but he needs to continue to prove himself in the spring. The Pirates won't consider him unless he gets close to average command on a consistent basis, and his slider needs to take that last step forward and stop flattening out. That's all easier said than done, but if the draft were held to day, I don't think Cusick would be a factor in the top half of the first round.

Honorable Mentions

3B Alex Binelas, Louisville: Binelas had as loud of a freshman season as you can have (14 HR, .291/.383/.612), showing as explosive of a bat as any in the class. His lightning quick swing gives him massive raw power and elite exit velocities, while his strong feel for the barrel enables him to tap that power consistently in games. His swing can be a bit rigid, as can his actions at third base, so he lacks the up the middle projection you usually see with the first overall pick. The Milwaukee-area native also lacks the plus hit tool that Spencer Torkelson had, so for that reason, it's hard to envision a path to the very top of the draft.

SS Brady House, Winder-Barrow HS [GA]: The most famous name in the high school class coming into the summer, House hasn't faltered so much as players like Jordan Lawlar and Marcelo Mayer have simply outperformed him. Coming from just outside the Atlanta suburbs, he shows plus raw power that he has consistently tapped in games against top competition. His hit tool has been more inconsistent, as he goes through stretches where he is completely unfazed by velocity and high-end breaking stuff, but at others he shows a bit more swing and miss than you'd like. The 6'3" shortstop's right handed swing could use a little fine tuning, as it's simple and explosive when he stays within himself but can get out of whack at times, and he'll need to learn to add loft regardless. House has a chance to stick at shortstop, but he might outgrow the position and move to third base.

OF James Wood, IMG Academy [FL]: Wood has been one of the fastest risers in the class as he's proven his hit tool more and more. Growing up on the Maryland side of the DC suburbs, he transferred to the famous IMG Academy outside Tampa and it's paying off. The 6'6" giant has a very laid back playing style, showing up in a calm demeanor and a patient approach at the plate. When he swings, though, he unleashes huge raw power that comes from a combination of loft, strength, and extension in his left handed swing. He possesses a keen eye at the plate and won't chase bad pitches, though he can get himself into deep counts and swing and miss from there occasionally. An above average runner for now, he has a chance to stick in center field and could be a plus defender in right.

RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS [FL]
No high school right handed pitcher has ever gone first overall, and while that's unlikely to change in 2021, it's hard to find anything wrong with Andrew Painter. He's a towering 6'6" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball that tops out around 95-96, with that projectable frame promising more velocity. He adds a pair of good breaking balls in a downer curveball and a more lateral slider, neither of which is a true plus pitch but both of which are consistently at least average and flash above average. His changeup is the same story, playing at least average consistently and flashing above. Unlike most high school pitchers with his build, he's a polished strike thrower with an easy, simple delivery, making him the complete package at a young age. The next step, aside from staying healthy, will be refining at least one of his breaking balls into a plus pitch.

RHP Richard Fitts, Auburn
Fitts was one of the fall's biggest risers, pushing himself from a fringe-day one arm to a true first round talent. Mostly a swingman over his first two years at Auburn, the Birmingham-area native sat around 90 with his fastball and showed promise with his secondaries and command as a reliever. He earned a starting role over the summer and in the fall, where his fastball actually ticked up into the low to mid 90's, playing up due to the tough angle he puts on his pitches. His downer slider and nice splitter both flash above average, and as he did as a reliever, he throws strikes with all three pitches. With a durable 6'3" frame, he has all the starter traits necessary to project in the rotation long term, and he just needs to go out and prove it this spring.