RHP Shane Baz (Concordia Lutheran HS, TX): 6'3", 190 lbs, born 6/17/1999.
Overview
Fastball: 60. Cutter: 60. Slider: 60. Curveball: 55. Changeup: 50. Command: 50.
Shane Baz comes from a powerhouse baseball program, Texas' Concordia Lutheran. There, he has blossomed into one of the best high school pitchers in the country, coming in with a full arsenal and as high a ceiling as anybody. He has pretty much everything going for him except his demographic, that of a high school right handed pitcher, traditionally the riskiest to pick from. Still, he projects to go in the first half of the first round, with a solid chance to crack the top ten. He'll have to go early, because he'll be one of the toughest signs in the first round, if not the toughest.
Strengths
There are a lot. Baz throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's, and he maintains that velocity throughout his starts, showing a great combination of upside and durability. His slider and cutter tended to run together in the past, but he has created separation between them and both grade out as plus, with the cutter's boring action and the sharp bite on his slider. There's the curveball, too, which isn't quite a plus pitch but features hard drop and projects as above average. Lastly, he does have feel for a changeup, giving him the widest arsenal in this draft, a true five pitch mix. He has been able to handle it all to this point, and with a June birthday, he is one of the younger high schoolers available. Scouts love his makeup, as a competitive, team-oriented player. He is also a tremendous athlete, one who actually would project to have plus power as a hitter. There is a lot, a lot, a lot to like about Baz.
Weaknesses
For a high schooler, there really aren't too many holes in his game. The biggest knock on his present stuff would probably be his command, which is average at this point. Because he has that five pitch mix, he can run into trouble keeping it all in and around the zone, but he has done a reasonably good job there for his age. Baz is a high school right handed pitcher, which comes with a lot of risk no matter how good a pitcher is. Guys like Zack Greinke, Chris Archer, Jose Fernandez, and fellow Texan Noah Syndergaard have succeeded from this demographic in the past, but for every Syndergaard, there are more than a few Tyler Koleks (2nd overall, 2014) and Kohl Stewarts (4th overall, 2013). Lastly, this isn't so much a weakness as it is a complication, but Baz has a very strong commitment to Texas Christian University, possibly the strongest of the potential first rounders. He should be signable if he goes in the top fifteen picks, but nobody should expect to save any money on him and he has no issue with simply walking away from the table to attend college.
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