2017 Draft Preview: Brendan McKay

1B/LHP Brendan McKay (University of Louisville): 6'2", 210 lbs, born 12/18/1995.

Overview

Hit: 60. Power: 55. Run: 35. Throw: 60. Field: 55.
Fastball: 55. Curveball: 60. Changeup: 50. Control: 55.

Over his three years at Louisville, Brendan McKay has established himself as one of the greatest, if not the greatest, two-way player of all time, right up there with Minnesota's Dave Winfield, Washington State's John Olerud, and, more recently, Kentucky's A.J. Reed. While those players were drafted 4th overall (1973), 79th overall (1989), and 42nd overall (2014), respectively, McKay will likely beat all of them, with as good a shot as any player in this draft to go first overall. While he doesn't have the highest ceiling, McKay's floor as both a pitcher and a hitter is as high as anybody's, and he's arguably the safest bet to reach the majors in this draft, whether that's as a first baseman or as a starting pitcher.

Hitting Strengths
McKay has a track record of performance in college baseball's second toughest conference, slashing .332/.435/.541 over three years in the ACC. His bat has taken a step forward this season, with the most notable piece of his .357/.474/.688 slash line being the big increase in power. His isolated power rose from .123 as a freshman to .180 as a sophomore before skyrocketing to .332 this season, and he has done so without a big increase in strikeouts (rates of 16.4%, 12.5%, 14.1% over his three years). He's also walking more than ever this year, upping his rate to 17.3% and maintaining more walks (43) than strikeouts (35). His best offensive tool is his hit tool, but his power is not far behind, especially after his breakout this season, and it is not at all difficult to imagine him putting up Joey Votto type numbers at the plate, albeit with fewer walks. Though he is limited to first base defensively, he works well around the bag and should be a positive-value player on defense with his solid glove and plus arm.

Hitting Weaknesses
Really, there aren't many. He doesn't quite have the ceiling of other college bats like Pavin Smith, Adam Haseley, or Jeren Kendall, but he has a higher floor than any of them. As a first baseman, there will always be pressure on his bat, but that shouldn't be an issue. He's also a well below average runner, but when you're hitting dingers all day, you can take as long as you want to round the bases.

Pitching Strengths
Again, the key word is floor. He's been an excellent performer in the ACC on the mound as well, posting a career 2.13 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 376/109 strikeout to walk ratio over 303.2 innings. McKay works in anywhere from 88-95 with his fastball, usually beginning his starts at the upper end and finishing off at the lower end. His command is so good, though, that he is still a very tough pitcher to face even when he's sitting in the high 80's late in starts. His curveball rivals that of Alex Lange for the best in the college crop, with big break and good location. His changeup is present, and while it isn't the best in the class, he has a feel for it and should have no problem cracking a big league rotation soon. If he's drafted as a pitcher and everything goes well, he could realistically make an Opening Day MLB rotation in 2019. Left handed college pitchers tend to do very well on draft day.

Pitching Weaknesses
He does have a few more weaknesses as a pitcher than as a hitter. The lack of a high ceiling is present as well, and his velocity does fade during his starts. There has also been reports that his velocity has faded overall as the season wore on, possibly due to overuse. While he has a higher floor as a pitcher than as a hitter, he also has lower upside, and it's tough to see him as anything more than a #2 or #3 starter. That's not a bad ceiling at all, but we are talking about a potential #1 overall pick.

Pitcher or Hitter?
Scouts are very much split, and we likely won't have any idea right up until he hears his name called somewhere in the top five picks on Draft Day. Personally, though it's not a strong preference, I prefer him as a hitter. The higher ceiling and the real lack of any weaknesses in his game, aside from his running speed, make me believe he is the top bat in this entire draft. I'd still take him in the top five as a pitcher, but I'd strongly consider him for first overall as a hitter. The bat is too polished to pass up for me, especially considering the added power and loft in his swing this season.