1st Tier: Brendan McKay, Alex Faedo
2nd Tier: Griffin Canning, David Peterson, Seth Romero, Wil Crowe
3rd Tier: Jake Thompson, Will Gaddis, Spencer Howard, Zac Lowther, Keegan Thompson
Others: Charlie Barnes
Also in this category: Luke Heimlich
This isn't a particularly wide-ranging demographic, so we can focus a little more on each individual player. These guys won't be aces, starting pitchers of any sort are extremely valuable, and these guys are as safe a bet as any to become just that. They have proven track records and give you a much better idea of who they are. You may recognize two big wild cards on here in Romero and Heimlich, but if you focus on their on-field abilities, they fit in this profile.
Tier I (McKay, Faedo)
Brendan McKay the pitcher (not to be confused with his alter ego, Brendan McKay the hitter) may have the highest floor in this whole draft. If drafted as a pitcher, he's a pretty safe bet to at least pitch effectively somewhere in a major league rotation. The lefty throws in the low to mid 90's early in games before tapering off as the game goes by, but he should be able to fix that if he focuses solely on pitching, and he still gets the job done when his fastball is sitting 88-89. He also has one of the best curveballs in the class, with big breaking action that generates plenty of swings and misses. Alex Faedo, who is three inches taller than McKay at 6'5" but throws right handed, has had erratic fastball velocity this spring after fall knee surgeries, but still fits well in this demographic. Before the surgeries, he could dial his fastball into the mid 90's regularly, though he sat in the low 90's at the beginning of the spring before bumping his velocity back up gradually. Like McKay's curveball, Faedo's slider profiles as among the best in the class, behind perhaps only that of J.B. Bukauskas. With a decent changeup, solid control, and a strong track record in the SEC, Faedo will almost certainly end up in an MLB rotation.
Tier II (Canning, Peterson, Romero, Crowe)
Two of these players have raised their profiles this spring, while two have hurt them. Griffin Canning was considered a possible first round pick but more likely a supplemental or second rounder, while David Peterson wasn't even in the first round conversation. With strong springs, both will likely be taken in the first 20 picks. Scouts have always loved Canning's advanced feel for pitching, but they wanted him to improve on his good-not-great Pac-12 numbers. That he did, dropping his ERA from 3.70 as a sophomore to 2.34 as a junior while bumping up his strikeout percentage from a solid 20.5% to an excellent 29.4%. Meanwhile, Peterson overhauled his mechanics, and the results were terrific. His 140/15 strikeout to walk ratio was one of the most eye-popping stats in college baseball this year, and it paired nicely with his 2.51 ERA. Both Canning and Peterson throw in the low 90's with full arsenals, and while Canning has a much better curveball, Peterson's slider tops Canning's. Canning also has the better changeup of the two. The left handed Peterson (6'6", 240 lbs) is much bigger than the right handed Canning (6'1", 170 lbs), though Canning has the advantage of being eight months younger. Both pitchers will likely come off the board somewhere in the 12-20 range, and any team that considers one will consider the other. Now, Seth Romero isn't really a safe bet at all when you consider his makeup issues, which ended up getting him booted from his college team this year, but the on-field profile is as safe a bet as any, save for McKay. As long as he keeps up with his conditioning (reportedly an issue during his time at the University of Houston), he can attack hitters with a power three pitch arsenal, coming in with a low to mid 90's fastball, a plus slider that ranks behind only Bukauskas and Faedo in the college ranks, and an above average changeup. Coming from a durable, 6'3", left handed package, that's the stuff top ten picks are made of if they don't get themselves kicked off their teams. Lastly for this tier, there is Wil Crowe, the big bodied righty who hasn't dominated the SEC the way some would have hoped this season. After sitting out what would have been his junior season due to Tommy John surgery last year, he is an older prospect, but there is a really intriguing package here. His sinking, low to mid 90's fastball sets up the rest of his full arsenal, with his curveball, slider, and changeup all grading out as above average. He got hit harder as the season wore on, meaning he may not be fully recovered from surgery, but if you can look past that as well as his age, you have a back-end starter here with a relatively high floor.
Tier III (J. Thompson, Gaddis, Howard, Lowther, K. Thompson)
Luke Heimlich would have ranked right at the front of this tier, but it recently came out in the news that he is a registered level one sex offender in Washington, as he sexually molested a six year old family member when he was fifteen years old. This has, naturally, severely damaged or even destroyed his draft stock, pushing him from a likely top 50 pick to one who may not be drafted at all. Heimlich is the best pitcher on the best team in college baseball, Oregon State, having gone 11-1 with a 0.76 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP, striking out 128 batters in 118.1 innings over 16 starts. Anyways, let's move on to his teammate, Jake Thompson. Thompson, a redshirt junior who is already 22, has matched his teammate almost pitch for pitch, going 13-0 with a 1.30 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP while striking out 106 batters in 110.2 innings, 24.9% in all. He is currently pitching against Vanderbilt in place of Heimlich as I write this, so those numbers will change. Thompson has taken a huge step forward this year, bumping his fastball into the mid 90's with a solid slider and usable changeup. The lack of a track record makes some scouts nervous to use a second round pick on him, but he'll fit nicely in the third round. Will Gaddis, Furman's ace, has a very high floor but a low ceiling. He has dominated the Southern Conference (1.89 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 89/15 K/BB) with a fairly ordinary arsenal, led by a sinking low 90's fastball and a solid changeup. His breaking pitches aren't quite as good, and he profiles like a smaller Wil Crowe. Spencer Howard, a former walk-on at Cal Poly, has dominated in his two years on campus and profiles well as a back-end starter with his full arsenal, coming with a higher ceiling than Gaddis but a lower floor due to a shorter track record and less advanced command. Like Gaddis and Howard, Zac Lowther has dominated at a mid-major school, putting up a 2.92 ERA, but more notably, a 35.9% strikeout rate for Xavier this season. He's not your typical strikeout artist, though, as his upper 80's fastball is the slowest on this list but plays up due to advanced command and running movement. Combine that with a decent arsenal overall, and he's a left handed Gaddis with less velocity. Lastly, Keegan Thompson is another 22 year old, but he has the best secondary stuff in Tier III with an excellent curveball and a good changeup. With his solid command and low 90's fastball, he has the highest floor in this tier, but Tommy John surgery forced him to miss the 2016 season.
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