2021 MLB Draft Review: Milwaukee Brewers

Full list of draftees

The Brewers deployed a really interesting draft strategy, going with exclusively established performers early on in their first six picks. In doing so, they definitely leaned more on floor than ceiling, going the low-risk route and hoping to get a solid group of major leaguers rather than cashing the chips in for one star. The script flipped on day three, however, when they went after numerous high end prep talents they thought thought they might maybe could sign with leftover money from second rounder Russell Smith ($440,000 below slot) and ninth rounder Brannon Jordan ($107,400 below slot), among others. They couldn't quite reel in Roc Riggio, Hunter Hollan, or Will Rogers, but they did land Caden Vire, Quinton Low, and Jace Avina, significantly adding to the upside in their class. My favorite pick was pretty easily Sal Frelick in the first round, because I thought he was a legitimate top ten talent, while I also liked Alex Binelas in the third round and simply the fact that they were able to land the trio of Vire, Low, and Avina on day three.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-15: OF Sal Frelick, Boston College. My rank: #7.
I love this pick for the Brewers. Sal Frelick was legitimately the second best college position player in this draft in my opinion and as a Nationals fan, I would have been very happy if we took him four picks sooner at #11. He'll follow in the footsteps of Garrett Mitchell as an ultra-athletic power conference outfielder, though his skill set is a bit different. In a year where many college bats underwhelmed, Frelick got off to a red hot start and maintained it all season long, slashing .359/.443/.559 with six home runs and a 28/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games. He's a plus hitter who can adeptly manipulate the barrel to make contact with virtually anything thrown at him, whether that's velocity or offspeed or whether it's in the zone or out. At times, he's willing to sacrifice his "A" swing in order to get the barrel to the ball, which saps his power, but it also helped him strike out in just 12.3% of his plate appearances this spring against very good pitching. Undersized at 5'9", there's plenty of twitchy strength to project on so when he does get good pitches to hit, he can still take you deep and projects for at least 10-15 home runs per season. Once on base, the Boston-area native shows plus speed that enabled him to steal 38 bases in 102 career games at Boston College, and that also serves him on defense, where his hustle and all out style of play should make him a plus defender in center field. Frelick gets high marks for his work ethic and enthusiasm for the game, giving him a chance to become a fan favorite in Milwaukee. I really like this kid and I think he will maximize his skill set, with the ceiling of a Denard Span type but with more power. He signed for $4 million, which was about $110,000 above slot value, and is slashing .467/.529/.667 through four games in the ACL.

CBA-33: 2B Tyler Black, Wright State. My rank: #45.
Tyler Black has been a favorite of the Midwest area scouting community for a while now, and a strong 2021 season pushed him into the national spotlight. He was exceptional as a freshman at Wright State (.348/.465/.614) but never got a chance to catch his stride in his shortened sophomore season (.239/.340/.370), then put it all together with a massive junior season by slashing .383/.496/.683 with 13 home runs and a 25/39 strikeout to walk ratio. Though Wright State doesn't face the toughest in-conference competition as a member of the Horizon League, he doubled off of Kumar Rocker on Opening Day and picked up five hits (including three home runs) in nine at bats in the Knoxville regional against Duke and Tennessee. Black is a professional hitter through and through, showing elite plate discipline and feel for the barrel that enable him to draw a ton of walks (16.7% career rate) and rarely strike out (10.1%), boding well for his transition to pro baseball. Not nearly the athlete that Frelick is, Black still taps above average game power because he is so adept at choosing pitches and executing on them when he gets them. To me, it's a ceiling of 15-20 home runs per season with high on-base percentages, and although he's an average runner, he's a good baserunner that went eleven for twelve in stolen base attempts this spring. The Toronto native won't provide a ton of value defensively as an adequate second baseman, but the bat is plenty good enough to profile every day. Adding to Black's allure is age, as he's young for the class and didn't turn 21 until after the draft. He signed right at slot value for roughly $2.2 million.

2-51: LHP Russell Smith, Texas Christian. My rank: #202.
Okay, I'm not a huge fan of this pick, but we can still draw some positives. Russell Smith has been an extremely consistent performer at TCU for three years now, posting a 3.51 ERA and a 163/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 141 career innings, including marks of 3.83 and 101/20 in 82.1 innings this season. A massive, 6'9" lefty, he sits in the low 90's with his fastball and tops out around 95, with the pitch playing up because of his feel for it. He can sink it when he needs to like a traditional tall pitcher, but unlike many others his size, he also puts nice ride on the pitch when he wants to, giving hitters multiple looks. The North Texas native adds a slider and a changeup, with both grading out as average based on pure movement but the latter playing up to at least above average again due to his feel for the pitch. With a clean, relatively low effort delivery, he pours in strikes and locates well within the zone, making him a pretty complete pitcher aside from the lack of a swing and miss breaking ball. The Brewers likely see him as a safe bet #4 starter whose feel for pitching will carry him through the minors relatively quickly, though he will turn 23 in September and was the oldest player drafted at the time he heard his name called in the second round. Smith signed for $1 million, which was roughly $440,000 below slot value and enabled the Brewers to reel in a couple bit overslot signings on day three.

3-86: 3B Alex Binelas, Louisville. My rank: #64.
I mentioned during Sal Frelick's review that many other top college bats underwhelmed this spring, and while I specifically had Alex Binelas (and quite a few others) in mind when I wrote that, the Brewers are getting really nice buy-low value here in the third round. A product of Oak Creek High School in the southern Milwaukee suburbs (hometown pick!), Binelas had an exceptional freshman year at Louisville by slashing .291/.383/.612 with 14 home runs and a 48/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games, then injured his hand in the second game of his sophomore season and didn't get back on the field before the shutdown. 2021 began as a disaster, as he picked up just two hits in his first eight games and was still hitting just .145 in mid-March. He heated up later in the season and the end result was respectable: .256/.348/.621, 19 HR, 51/21 K/BB. However, it was not enough to recover his stock from that early season slump, which could be a blessing in disguise for the Brewers since they were able to get him in the third round. Binelas shows plus raw power from the left side, a product of a lightning quick left handed swing and tremendous strength that enables him to absolutely sting the ball with elite exit velocities to all fields. He's gotten to that power consistently in games aside from that slump, blasting 33 home runs in 111 games at Louisville and at one point homering in four straight against Clemson, Vanderbilt, and Duke in early May. He also had a three homer game against Clemson in the ACC tournament. The Wisconsinite's problem, however, lies in his plate discipline. He'll likely always be a streaky hitter that struggles with swing and miss, meaning there's a chance he's never more than a power hitting bench/platoon bat. A third baseman for much of his Louisville career, he always looked choppy over there and moved to first base in 2021. In the shifting era, it's unlikely he moves back over to the hot corner without some serious improvements, and he may be best served as an adequate corner outfielder. There's a high ceiling here if Binelas can be "on" more than he's "off," with the chance for Joey Gallo-type numbers. He signed for $700,000, which was $300 over slot value. Maybe he used that money to take his family out to a fancy dinner or something. Through four games in the ACL, he has three hits in eleven at bats in addition to four walks.

4-116: RHP Logan Henderson, McLennan JC [TX]. My rank: #124.
Here's an interesting one. The industry was pretty split on Logan Henderson, who ranked #105 on the BA 500 but just #234 on MLB Pipeline and #268 at Prospects Live. I was definitely in the optimistic boat, so I like this pick. He was absolute money for McLennan JC in Waco, Texas this spring, putting up a 1.66 ERA and a 169/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.2 innings, playing a leading role as the Highlanders won the JUCO World Series. The undersized 5'11" righty lacks much projection, but his combination of youth, pitchability, and now-stuff makes him a very intriguing prospect nonetheless. His fastball has ticked up into the low 90's lately, getting up to around 94-95 at its best, and its high spin rates make it play almost like an "invisiball." He adds a distinct slider and curveball, neither of which are true swing and miss pitches but which get the job done, and his best pitch is a plus changeup. Henderson commands the zone extremely well, and given that he only turned 19 in March, that's extra impressive. There may not be a ton of ceiling here but he has as good a chance as any teenager to work his way into a big league rotation. The Houston-area native signed for slot value at $497,500, but unlike Alex Binelas I guess he couldn't convince Milwaukee to round up.

5-147: SS Ethan Murray, Duke. My rank: #197.
Ethan Murray is simply a ballplayer who lacks a carrying tool, but does a lot of things well. He's a career .292/.392/.432 hitter at Duke who looked like his usual self in 2021, slashing .297/.397/.440 with three home runs and a 46/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games. Murray has a high baseball IQ that has enabled him to be extremely consistent, managing the strike zone well and finding the barrel more often than not. Though he'll never be a big power threat, he does hit the ball hard and should continue to find holes and gaps, giving him plenty of extra base projection. There's a similar story on defense, where he makes all the routine plays at shortstop but lacks the athleticism to cut off balls deep in the hole and save runs. For that reason, the Charlottesville-area native has a pretty clear utility infield projection, someone who can tap 5-10 home runs per season and get on base but likely not earn any All Star appearances. If he does hit just enough to play every day, the glove would look really good at second base. He signed for $272,500, which was $95,900 below slot value, and has two hits in seven at bats so far in the ACL.

10-297: C Wes Clarke, South Carolina. My rank: #222.
The Brewers went for power to close out day two. Wes Clarke blasted eight home runs in his first six games in 2021 against Dayton, Winthrop, and Clemson, then kept mashing home runs all season long and finished with a .271/.428/.663 line, 23 home runs, and a 73/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. If you got back to 2020, he has 31 home runs in 73 games, and the 23 this year tied for the NCAA lead with Reds competitive balance pick and Florida State catcher Matheu Nelson. Clarke packs a ton of strength into his 6'2", 235 pound frame, consistently punishing mistake pitches while being perfectly willing to take his walks if pitchers don't come to him. That's the One Big Positive. The Lynchburg, Virginia-area native swings and misses a lot, and while he is battle tested against SEC pitching, pro ball might still be a bit of a transition for him. He was drafted as a catcher, but that might be a stretch and first base is the more likely scenario, where his well below average speed likely keeps him from being anything more than an average defender there. Clarke reminds me a little bit of a discount Aaron Sabato. He signed for $75,000, which was $70,500 below slot value, and has two hits in eight at bats (including a home run) so far in the ACL.

12-357: LHP Caden Vire, Skyview HS [WA]. Unranked.
The Brewers went a little crazy on day three, and their biggest bonus of the day went to Caden Vire. He's a complete and total wild card, one who might never make it past A ball but who could be the next best Brewers pitching prospect. The 6'6" lefty is rail thin, with a ton of room to add strength, and the fact that he doesn't even turn 18 until September bodes even better for his physical development. Vire has a ton of moving parts in his high effort delivery, which will likely need a complete overhaul, and it seriously impacts his command as he tends to sail pitches up and to his arm side or yank them at right handers' feet. The Portland-area native sits in the upper 80's with his fastball, just scraping 90, but he puts a lot of spin on the ball and figures to add significant velocity anyways. His slider requires projection as well but it comes with some late bite, missing plenty of bats when it's located. The Brewers have their work cut out for them and we shouldn't expect Vire in the big leagues any time soon, but if they get it right, he has a chance to be a big piece of their future rotation. Committed to Arizona State, he instead signed for $497,500, of which $372,500 counts against the Brewers' bonus pool.

14-417: OF Jace Avina, Spanish Springs HS [NV]. My rank: #230.
As with Caden Vire, the Brewers are hoping to strike gold with Jace Avina, an extremely talented prep bat who is unproven against better competition. He stands out for his athleticism around the diamond, with above average speed and a strong arm giving him a chance to play virtually any position. The glove might be a bit choppy for the infield and since the Brewers announced him as an outfielder, they may just stick him straight in the grass and let him develop there. At the plate, he's hit over power, which makes it extra difficult to project on him given his circumstances. Avina wasn't seen much on the showcase circuit and played his high school ball in the Reno area, where the competition isn't the greatest, so his strong hit tool is pretty untested. He does show a quick bat from the right side and hits the ball hard consistently, and if he adds a bit of loft to his relatively flat swing, he has a chance for average power. It's the kind of player that could make it to campus and quickly increase his stock when his performance doesn't drop off against better competition, and the Brewers believed that would have happened at Nevada so they are buying him out early. Avina signed for $255,900, of which $130,900 counts against the bonus pool.

2021 MLB Draft: A Hometown Pick for Every AL/NL Central Team

I'm personally just as interested in maps as I am in the MLB Draft, so naturally I really like it when players go to their hometown team. Seeing Ryan Zimmerman (Virginia Beach, VA) on the Nationals, Justin Turner (Lakewood, CA) on the Dodgers, Joe Musgrove (La Mesa, CA) on the Padres, etc. makes me happy. Last year, the Cubs drafted Chicago native Ed Howard in the first round, which I thought was really cool. Obviously, picking the hometown guy usually plays a negligible part in the selection process, but it's still fun to think about. So, if teams were drafting to make me happy, what hometown players could they target early in the draft? Note, I'll usually think in terms of the first pick if possible, but if necessary I'll find targets for the second or third pick (especially in the "other options" section). This is the second of three articles, as I previously wrote on the AL and NL East. Note this is NOT a mock draft – it's just for fun and I don't actually think many of these will happen. They're just fun to think about. AL/NL West article here.

Chicago Cubs/White Sox
Hitter: SS Branden Comia, Illinois (hometown: Orland Park, IL)
I'm going to do the same thing here that I did with the Mets and Yankees, just combining the Cubs and White Sox and picking a hitter and a pitcher. Despite its size, Chicago doesn't bring quite as much baseball talent to the table as warmer places like Atlanta, Houston, or Los Angeles, but it's usually good for a couple names every year. This year, Day One likely won't yield any Chicagoland natives, especially not any bats, so I dug a little deeper to find Illini shortstop Branden Comia. A graduate of Carl Sandburg High School in Orland Park, about twenty miles southwest of downtown, Comia hit just .255/.322/.370 as a freshman but has caught fire ever since. He burst onto the scene with a .426/.526/.702 line over 13 games in the shortened 2020 season, and his 2021 has been nearly as hot. A bit undersized at 5'10", he shows great feel for the barrel from the right side and has tapped some moderate power in Urbana-Champaign, and he does a very good job of limiting his strikeouts. The power will likely never be more than fringe-average, as his swing is geared towards line drives and he hasn't hit well with wood bats. Comia will stick in the middle infield, either at shortstop or second base, and has a utility projection. He probably doesn't make sense for the Cubs or White Sox in the first two to three rounds, but once we get into triple digits on the overall board, one of them might like his consistent profile.
Other options: C Ian Moller (Wahlert Catholic HS, Dubuque, IA), OF Levi Usher (Louisville via Fairfax, IA), 1B Niko Kavadas (Notre Dame via Granger, IN), 3B Alex Binelas (Louisville via Oak Creek, WI), OF Zaid Walker (Michigan State via Homewood, IL)
Pitcher: RHP McCade Brown, Indiana (hometown: Normal, IL)
We'll move a little outside of Chicagoland to get to a really interesting pitcher. McCade Brown went to Normal West High School in Normal, Illinois, just over one hundred miles southwest of Chicago and home of Illinois State University. To call his first two years at Indiana unremarkable would actually be a compliment; in 6.2 innings, he allowed eleven earned runs (14.85 ERA) and walked thirteen batters (31% of those he faced). However, something clicked for the 6'6" righty over the summer and by fall practice, he was a completely transformed pitcher. Brown came out absolutely dealing to start the season, shutting down Rutgers and Penn State for one run over fourteen innings, allowing just three hits, two walks, and two hit batsmen along the way and striking out 28. He's come back down to Earth a bit since then, but we still have a heck of a prospect on our hands. At his best, Brown can touch 96 with his fastball and drop in an absolute hammer curveball, backed up by a distinct slider with late break as well. However, over extended innings, his stuff has flattened out just a little bit and the command has backed up a hair as well, so both the Cubs (pick #21) and White Sox (pick #22) might be a little bit of a stretch in the first round at this point unless he regains that early season form. If he's still on the board when they pick again at #56 and #57, respectively, both could be very interested.
Other options: RHP Glenn Albanese (Louisville via Batavia, IL), RHP J.P. Massey (Minnesota via Chicago, IL), RHP Jack Perkins (Louisville via Kokomo, IN), RHP Johnny Ray (Texas Christian via Quincy, IL), RHP Luke Smith (Louisville via Champaign, IL)

Cincinnati Reds: OF Daylen Lile, Trinity HS, Louisville, KY
I was torn between Daylen Lile and Ohio State ace Seth Lonsway, but despite Lonsway being a Buckeye State lifer who grew up in Celina, I went with Lile because a) I think he has a better chance of landing in Cincinnati than Lonsway and b) I've written about Lonsway a lot over the years since he was on draft radars in both 2017 and 2020, so I think it's time we give the new kid a shot. Lile is a really interesting bat out of Louisville who is committed to stay in town and play for the Cardinals should he push pro ball down the road, but he's trending up and might not end up at school. Nobody doubts his pure hit tool, as he brings an extremely professional approach at the plate that he combines with a smooth, leveraged left handed swing to find the barrel consistently. Up until this spring, there were some minor concerns over his power output, as he lacked the pure strength to really maximize his skill set, but he's come out swinging a hot bat lately and has been turning on more baseballs. If he can continue to add muscle to his 6'1" frame, he has a chance to be an extremely well-rounded hitter. The defense is a bit of a question mark, as he is fringy in center field and doesn't quite have the arm for right field. Because there's a chance he ends up in left field, teams will really need to bank on that strength continuing to manifest, which is why his hot 2021 has been very good for his stock. Lile will not be in play for the Reds' first round pick at #17, but they have a couple of comp picks at #30 and #35, then their second round pick comes in at #53. He could make sense at either of those comp picks, or if bonus demands push him down, the Reds should have space to sign him above slot at #53.
Other options: LHP Seth Lonsway (Ohio State via Celina, OH), RHP Sam Bachman (Miami of OH via Fishers, IN), SS Luke Waddell (Georgia Tech via Loveland, OH), OF Colson Montgomery (Southridge HS, Huntingburg, IN), SS Trey Sweeney (Eastern Illinois via Louisville, KY)

Cleveland Indians: LHP Evan Shawver, Cincinnati (hometown: Amherst, OH)
Northern Ohio can be hit or miss in terms of producing baseball talent, last year giving us Massillon natives Dillon Dingler (Ohio State) and Kyle Nicolas (Ball State), and this year we have one Day One prospect in Cincinnati lefty Evan Shawver. A product of Steele High School in Amherst, on the western edge of the Cleveland suburbs, Shawver transformed himself as a pitcher between his freshman and sophomore years. The undersized lefty greatly improved his command while seeing his stuff tick up as well, bumping into the low 90's with his fastball and topping out as high as 97. His slider flashes plus with late diving action and his changeup is an above average pitch as well, and the entire package put him in the top tier of college lefties according to some evaluators. However, he's barely pitched lately and I can't find information as to why, which has knocked him into the second tier. Depending on why he's missed time, durability questions could start to creep up given his size. He won't be in play at pick #23 but depending how he returns, he could be at #58, #69, or #95.
Other options: LHP Seth Lonsway (Ohio State via Celina, OH), LHP Michael Kirian (Louisville via New Riegel, OH), RHP Ryan Bergert (West Virginia via Canton, OH), LHP Jackson Wolf (West Virginia via Gahanna, OH), LHP Drake Batcho (Cincinnati via Warren, OH)

Detroit Tigers: SS Alex Mooney, Orchard Lake St. Mary's HS, West Bloomfield, MI
Prep middle infielders seem to have an interesting tendency to get drafted higher than the national rankings say. It seems like every year, the national rankings will have one of these kids in the second round that at least a few teams like at the back of the first, such as Matt McLain in 2018, Anthony Volpe in 2019, and Nick Yorke and Carson Tucker in 2020. There are a few more names like that in 2021, and if the Tigers want to go that route, one is from Michigan. Alex Mooney stands out for his feel for the game over his tools, in a somewhat similar vein to Jordan Lawlar at the top of the draft (who could be an option for the Tigers at pick #3). Mooney isn't as athletic as Lawlar, but he's simply a gamer who makes things happen on the field. He has a quick swing from the right side and puts some nice lift on the ball, maximizing his impact by choosing good pitches to swing at and doing damage. The Rochester Hills native definitely has the feel for shortstop, but a superior defender may be able to push him to third base. Also like Lawlar, Mooney is old for the class and will be 19 on draft day, which works against him for many teams, and he'll be eligible again in 2023 after two seasons at Duke if he chooses that route.
Other options: SS/RHP Spencer Schwellenbach (Nebraska via Saginaw, MI), 3B Luke Leto (Portage Central HS, Portage, MI), RHP Mason Erla (Michigan State via Cass City, MI), 1B Niko Kavadas (Notre Dame via Granger, IN), LHP Michael Kirian (Louisville via New Riegel, OH)

Kansas City Royals: RHP Ben Kudrna, Blue Valley Southwest HS, Overland Park, KS
I was tempted to go with KC native and Arkansas star Christian Franklin here, but pick #7 might be just a little rich for him given his slight strikeout concerns. We'll go with Ben Kudrna, an interesting high school pitcher out of Blue Valley Southwest High School at the southern edge of the KC suburbs, since the Royals tend to like these types of arms and he makes a lot of sense at pick #43. Kudrna's velocity has been ticking up little by little over the last few years, and this spring he's been sitting in the mid 90's more often and touching 97-98. He adds an above average slider and changeup to make for a very well-rounded arsenal, and on top of all that, he fills up the strike zone with a repeatable delivery that should enable him to remain a starter over the long run. There's a really nice combination of ceiling and floor here for a high school arm, and Kudrna isn't too dissimilar to Ben Hernandez, the Royals' 41st overall pick last year who was older for his class and didn't quite have Kudrna's breaking ball.
Other options: OF Christian Franklin (Arkansas via Overland Park, KS), C Carter Jensen (Park Hill HS, Kansas City, MO), LHP Jordan Wicks (Kansas State via Conway, AR), RHP Brannon Jordan (South Carolina via Collinsville, OK), RHP Cole Larsen (Kansas via Jamestown, KS)

Milwaukee Brewers: 3B Alex Binelas, Louisville (hometown: Oak Creek, WI)
It's really hard to pin down Alex Binelas' draft stock right now. He entered the season a potential top ten pick, but picked up just two hits in his first eight games, spanning 31 at bats, and even then continued on a cold stretch. However, he righted the ship towards the end of March and has been on a tear ever since, and in a crop of college bats that has really disappointed so far, he's starting to stand out once again. The Brewers pick at #15, which at this point is too rich for the slugging infielder, but if he continues to hit this way, he could make more and more sense. Milwaukee picks again at #33, which could also be a fit if Binelas cools off just a little bit. He's proven to be one of the streakiest hitters in the draft, so anything is really possible. The Oak Creek native has tremendous raw power from the left side, the product of a lightning quick barrel and plenty of strength in his 6'3" frame. He goes through stretches where he's tapping that power virtually every game, and at those times he looks like a top ten pick, but also can start to swing through pitches at other times, especially soft stuff. Defensively, he shows a strong arm at third base but his mobility there has become increasingly questionable, especially after Lucas Dunn forced him over to first base. Binelas could also make sense in at a corner outfield spot.
Other options: SS Noah Miller (Ozaukee HS, Fredonia, WI), C Ian Moller (Wahlert Catholic HS, Dubuque, IA), RHP Tanner Kohlhepp (Notre Dame via Eau Claire, WI), RHP Glenn Albanese (Louisville via Batavia, IL), OF Levi Usher (Louisville via Fairfax, IA)

Minnesota Twins: C Ian Moller, Wahlert Catholic HS, Dubuque, IA
Sometimes it can be tough to find Day One prospects from the Twin Cities, though last year we did get third overall pick and Woodbury native Max Meyer out of Minnesota. This year, nobody stands out from the Gopher State, so I headed south of the border into Iowa to grab Dubuque star Ian Moller. It makes sense, because the Twins are no stranger to catchers in the early rounds and plucked Ben Rortvedt out of a Wisconsin high school in the second round in 2016 as well as UNC Wilmington's Ryan Jeffers in the second round in 2018. Moller probably won't be in play at pick #26 in the first round, though the Twins' pick at #36 might represent his draft ceiling and an over slot deal at #61 could make sense as well. Moller has a picturesque swing that looks a little like a right handed Cody Bellinger, generating a ton of torque in his vicious but controlled uppercut. That in turn produces plus raw power that looks especially good from a catcher, and while his hit tool can be streaky, he has shown strong feel for the barrel against good pitching. The LSU commit also shows a good all-around defensive profile, with smooth glove work, a strong arm, and a quick release. It's a really well-rounded profile for a high school catcher, especially when he's hot at the plate, but high school catchers are notoriously risky and some teams avoid them altogether in the early rounds. The ceiling, though, is tantalizing, especially for a team like the Twins with an extra competitive balance pick.
Other options: RHP Aidan Maldonado (Illinois via Rosemount, MN), 2B Cooper Bowman (Louisville via Rapid City, SD), RHP Will Frisch (Oregon State via Stillwater, MN), OF Levi Usher (Louisville via Fairfax, IA), RHP Tanner Kohlhepp (Notre Dame via Eau Claire, WI)

Pittsburgh Pirates: RHP Will Bednar, Mississippi State (hometown: Valencia, PA)
Since Gibsonia native Neil Walker's star faded, we haven't had a star major leaguer from western Pennsylvania to take his place, but a few are coming up the pipeline. Between the Twins' Alex Kirilloff (Plum) and the Reds' Austin Hendrick (Imperial), there are a couple power hitting outfielders ready to make their marks, and now Mississippi State has what could be the best yinzer arm in a very long time. The younger brother of current Pirates reliever David Bednar, Will rode an excellent but short freshman season in Starkville (1.76 ERA, 23/6 K/BB in 15.1 IP) to an even bigger sophomore season, where he has pitched himself into the fringes of the first round conversation. While he won't be in play when the Pirates lead off the draft with the first overall pick, he could make a lot of sense at #37 if he's still available. The Valencia native deals a low to mid 90's fastball that gets up to 95-96 at its best, bringing nice ride that misses bats. His slider has taken a step forward this year and has become a true plus pitch, a wipeout offering that misses bats even when he misses his location. Bednar has also worked in a solid curveball and changeup in the past, but since his slider took off, he hasn't had much need for them. His control is ahead of his command for now but he fills up the strike zone and has proven durable thus far. As a draft-eligible sophomore/COVID freshman, he might have a high asking price, but Pittsburgh should be able to swing it given the size of their bonus pool.
Other options: LHP Joe Rock (Ohio via Aliquippa, PA), RHP Cameron Weston (Michigan via Canonsburg, PA), OF Benny Montgomery (Red Land HS, Lewisberry, PA), RHP Michael Morales (East Pennsboro Area HS, Enola, PA), RHP Ryan Bergert (West Virginia via Canton, OH)

St. Louis Cardinals: LHP Drew Gray, IMG Academy, FL (hometown: Swansea, IL)
The Cardinals could target Memphis product Hunter Goodman in the second round, but if we really want to go with a hometown pick, we'll wait until the third or fourth round with Drew Gray. Gray grew up just across the river in Swansea, Illinois, next to Belleville, but headed across the country to the IMG Academy in Florida to hone his baseball skill set. Primarily known as an outfielder throughout most of his prep career, he's very new to pitching and is a pure projection pick at this point. He brings a low 90's fastball that gets up to 93-94 at its best, but can dip into the upper 80's later in his starts, and his breaking ball is pretty slurvy for now. However, scouts love the way his arm works and see a lot to like in his mechanics as well, and some thing that a simple combination of added strength and seasoning could make him a monster. Of course, given that Gray only turns 18 in May, there is plenty of time to do both of those things. The Cardinals could choose to bite with the 70th or 90th overall pick, in which case they'd be taking a risk but hopefully buying into the breakout before it happens. If he goes unsigned and makes it to campus at Arkansas, he could come out a first round pick in 2024.
Other options: C Hunter Goodman (Memphis via Arlington, TN), SS Benjamin Sems (Michigan via Chesterfield, MO), OF Colson Montgomery (Southridge HS, Huntingburg, IN), 1B Kevin Graham (Mississippi via O'Fallon, MO), LHP Hugh Fisher (Vanderbilt via Eads, TN)

2021 MLB Draft: Ten Options for the Nationals at pick #11 (April update)

Back in February, before the season started, I highlighted ten players I could see the Nationals taking with the eleventh overall pick. Now in April, a lot has changed, so I'll spare the introduction that can be found in the original article and hop right into it. With nearly three months to go, a lot can and will still change, but here is where things stand now. Ranking on my most recent top 75 in parentheses.

RHP Ty Madden, Texas (#11)
2019-2020: 7-1, 2.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 63/28 K/BB in 67.1 IP.
2021: 4-1, 1.69 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 57/18 K/BB in 53.1 IP.
As I mentioned last time, this one really fits with the Nationals' drafting style. Ty Madden is your traditional, tall, consistent right hander with no glaring flaws to his game. His low to mid 90's fastball has topped out at 99 this spring, and he commands it well to both sides of the plate. He adds a slider that is usually at least average and flashes plus, as well as a consistently above average changeup. Combine three at least above average pitches with consistent command and a durable frame, and you have a prototypical starting pitcher. As he's continued to stay healthy and pound the strike zone, worries have faded over his slightly funky arm action that features some stab in the back, and instead focus on the "old school" steep plane on his pitches. Coming from straight over the top, his VAA (vertical approach angle) is difficult to lift with a traditional hitting approach, but won't miss as many bats as a flatter, Jack Leiter-esque fastball. Still, with an excellent spring that has featured seven consecutive starts of at least six innings and no more than two runs or three walks, he's as safe a bet as anybody in this draft to become a mid-rotation starter, something the Nationals would love.

RHP Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi (#8)
2019-2020: 6-3, 4.24 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 90/18 K/BB in 91.1 IP.
2021: 3-1, 2.57 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 78/16 K/BB in 49 IP.
Gunnar Hoglund was in the "other possibilities" section of this list last time, but a bump in velocity puts him squarely in the conversation for Washington at pick #11, if he even makes it out of the top ten. Despite touching 96 in high school, Hoglund was generally around 90 throughout his first two years at Ole Miss, instead focusing deploying his plus command. He threw an average slider that flashed above average, as well as a seldom-used changeup, but mostly pitched off that fastball by dotting it right where he wanted it. Even though we knew he had more velocity in the tank, it was still a back-of-the-first-round profile until he proved it. Well, in 2021, he proved it. I was at Globe Life Field in Arlington to catch his start against Texas Tech, where he came out throwing 94-95 in the first inning and now two months later, he hasn't looked back. Holding that same plus command, Hoglund is regularly in the low to mid 90's nowadays with an effortless delivery that screams durability. His slider has taken a big step forward and is regularly above average, flashing plus, and it's topping out around 87-88, which was the lower end of his fastball velocity a year ago. He's also broken out that changeup more often and it's looking like a solidly above average pitch as well. At this point, I would prefer the Nationals draft Hoglund to Madden, but he might not even make it this far if he keeps pitching like this.

RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt (#3)
2019-2020: 14-6, 3.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 142/29 K/BB in 114.2 IP.
2021: 7-1, 1.88 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 73/14 K/BB in 48 IP.
Wait, what? Isn't Kumar Rocker supposed to be a candidate at 1-1? Well, his stock his slipping just a little bit right now. If the draft were today, he wouldn't make it to the Nationals at pick #11, but the draft is not today and he might be trending in that direction. For most of his time at Vanderbilt, the big righty has sat in the mid 90's with his fastball and touched 97-98 at the high end, but over his past few starts, that velocity has dipped pretty significantly into the low 90's. When you're talking about the very top of the draft, where teams are making potentially franchise-altering decisions, that's a big deal. There are teams wondering whether it's health related, fatigue related, or what, but he's going to want to answer that question definitively before July. Still, we're talking about a kid with great extension and a flat VAA (remember Madden had a steep VAA) that makes his fastball play above its velocity, and while his command is not pinpoint, he's been very consistent about landing the pitch for strikes (though the quality of those strikes has been nitpicked). He also adds arguably the best breaking ball in the class, an elite slider that crushes souls and could get big league hitters out right now. Rocker hasn't used his changeup as much, but it does flash above average. If his velocity comes back before the draft, it's highly unlikely he's available to the Nationals at pick #11, but continued fluctuations coupled with fastball command questions (i.e., hitting spots) could push him outside the top ten. So long as he stays healthy and nothing drastic happens, I see the Nationals as a potential floor for him.

SS Matt McLain, UCLA (#23)
2019-2020: 7 HR, .244/.306/.411, 7 SB, 77/21 K/BB in 74 games.
2021: 6 HR, .314/.411/.542, 4 SB, 20/19 K/BB in 29 games.
I mentioned Matt McLain as an option for the Nationals back in February, and after a relatively slow start to the season, he was trending away from this list. However, he's now picked up a hit in sixteen of his last seventeen games and at one point hit four home runs in four games against Washington and Stanford, pushing his name back into consideration here just outside the top ten. McLain has no one flashy tool, but is instead what you call a "gamer" – the kid can just play. Despite standing a skinny 5'11", his athleticism and strong feel for the barrel have enabled him to tap more and more power throughout his amateur career, and that power showed up with wood bats as well in an exceptional turn through the California Collegiate League over the summer. He has reduced the swing and miss in his game as well, dropping his strikeout rate from 25.7% as a freshman to 20.3% as a sophomore and 14.2% this year as a junior. Meanwhile, his walk rate climbed from 6.8% and 6.3% over his first two years to 13.5% this year. A strong athlete, he is also a plus runner and has an outside chance at sticking at shortstop, though his feel to play the position at a major league level is questionable and he might fit better at second or third base. Overall, we're talking about a kid who can impact a baseball game in a lot of ways, and for a traditional team like the Nationals, a 15-20 home run bat with relatively high batting averages and an infield glove sounds like a fit. An August birthday makes him relatively old for the class, and that turns off some teams, but the Nationals did pop fellow August baby Cade Cavalli in the first round last year.

OF Colton Cowser, Sam Houston State (#28)
2019-2020: 8 HR, .339/.436/.554, 14 SB, 38/34 K/BB in 70 games.
2021: 12 HR, .351/.486/.730, 9 SB, 23/24 K/BB in 31 games.
Colton Cowser, like his alliterative counterpart Matt McLain, was featured on this list back in February, and he's on a similar, if more extreme, trajectory. Cowser was excellent as a freshman (.361/.450/.602) but never really got going in his shortened sophomore season (.255/.379/.364), then got off to a slow start in 2021 that caused many in the industry (myself included) to sour on him a bit. I actually dropped him as low as #41 at one point. However, he clubbed four home runs in two games against Northwestern State and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi to bust out of that slump in a big way, then later homered in five consecutive games against Central Arkansas, Texas A&M, and New Orleans. Now that he's hot again, there is a lot to like in this profile. Ty Madden's high school teammate has a very strong feel for hitting, something he showed on a national stage with the US Collegiate National Team back in 2019. He has a flat left handed swing that is more geared for line drives than fly balls, but he finds that barrel extremely frequently against the so-so Southland Conference pitching he faces at Sam Houston State. With a wiry 6'3" frame, it's easy to see him tacking on a bit more power, though he will need to tinker with his swing to get there consistently against pro pitching. Cowser, like McLain, is a plus runner, though as an outfielder he's working to prove he can stick in center field. In a year without many viable college bats, a guy like Cowser who can impact the game in a lot of ways sticks out.

OF Sal Frelick, Boston College (#12)
2019-2020: 6 HR, .332/.428/.486, 25 SB, 22/33 K/BB in 54 games.
2021: 5 HR, .360/.438/.576, 8 SB, 15/16 K/BB in 30 games.
Here's a new name. Coming into the season, Sal Frelick was an interesting back-of-the-first-round type who could impact the game in a lot of ways (that's three straight players I've used that verbiage for) but didn't necessarily stick out. Halfway through the season, boy does he stick out as arguably the second best college position player out there (at this point, there's probably no catching Henry Davis). The Massachusetts native has been blasting the ball around the field with ferocity this season, finding the barrel extremely consistently with elite bat to ball skills and wiry strength. In the past, he's often sold out for contact by putting bad (but successful) swings on bad pitches, and this year he's doing more damage and getting his "A" swing off more often. Described as a "ridiculous athlete," he plays a great center field with plus speed and could even fit at second base if needed. Some teams might be scared off by the size in this part of the draft, but that would be foolish and Frelick has every chance to become an impact, every day center fielder with 15-20 home run power (perhaps more), high on-base percentages, and plenty of stolen bases. Between McLain and Cowser, Frelick is probably the least likely to still be on the board when the Nationals pick.

RHP Jackson Jobe, Heritage Hall HS [OK] (#16)
This might be a bit of a reach unless they under slot him, but I do want to include a couple of high school pitchers for a team that has a history with them (see Mason Denaburg, Lucas Giolito). Jackson Jobe is an extremely interesting pitcher out of the Oklahoma City high school ranks, and could give the Nationals a second straight first round Okie pitcher after Tulsa-native and Sooner star Cade Cavalli last year. Relatively new to pitching, the 6'2" righty was better prospect as a hitter until a huge summer on the showcase circuit as a pitcher last year. He has a fastball that sits in the low to mid 90's in short stints and gets up to 95-96, but the real story is his slider. While Kumar Rocker has the best breaking ball in the college class, Jobe's slider is the best in the high school class with ridiculous spin rates well north of 3000 RPM's. Its bite is late, it's tight, and it's just a wicked pitch overall. He also adds a curveball and a changeup that flash above average, and by staying healthy and filling up the strike zone this spring, he has added confidence that he'll stick in the rotation. Jobe is old for the class and will turn 19 slightly after the draft, but even if that did bother the Nationals, the fact that he's relatively new to pitching should offset it. He is committed to Ole Miss but in the top half of the first round, I don't expect him to be too expensive.

RHP Bubba Chandler, North Oconee HS [GA] (#29)
Same deal as Jackson Jobe here – this would probably be a reach unless he signed well below slot, but the Nationals aren't afraid of high school pitchers and Bubba Chandler seems like a guy they would like. Pitching at Kumar Rocker's alma mater near Athens, Georgia, Chandler is a ridiculous athlete who is actually committed to Clemson to play quarterback as well. If you follow college football at all, you know the enormity of that distinction – kid's a stud. Heading into the spring, it seemed unlikely that his projected second to fourth round draft range would deter him away from Dabo Swinney's program, but he's had some of the most helium of any high schooler in the country this spring. Does that push him all the way up to the Nationals at pick #11? Probably not, but we can still discuss it. Chandler is a 6'3" righty with a fastball that has leapt into the mid 90's, touching 97, and his command has held solid as well. He adds a sharp curveball that looks like one of the best breakers in the class at its best, a new slider that brings a more horizontal look, and a changeup that is quickly becoming a weapon in its own right. Combine that with obviously immense athleticism and you have a very, very interesting arm to buy early in the draft. That Clemson commitment will make him very expensive if he were picked closer to the back of the first round, but here at the eleventh pick you could probably under slot him.

SS Kahlil Watson, Wake Forest HS [NC] (#7)
We'll finish up with a couple of bats. While Bubba Chandler might be a reach here, Kahlil Watson might not even make it to pick #11 with the way he's trending. If he is available, the Nationals would be smart to snatch him up. Though Raleigh-Durham is Braves country in reality, his hometown of Wake Forest, NC is technically closer to Washington than it is to Atlanta and I'll call that a hometown pick. Watson is a loud player in every sense of the word, but the first thing you notice is his swing. He generates tremendous torque from the left side with a vicious uppercut, giving him plus raw power despite a smaller 5'9" frame. Despite the ferocity of his swing, it's a controlled operation and he's made consistent contact both on the showcase circuit and this spring in North Carolina. Watson also showcases plus speed that makes him a threat on the bases, and combined with his strong arm makes him a good bet to stick at shortstop. A high-energy player that is fun to watch on the diamond, he has face-of-the-franchise upside if he reaches it. For now, he's probably just outside that top tier of high school hitters (Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawlar, Brady House) just due to a hit tool that's more average than above average, but he could very well be gone anyways in the top ten. He's committed to NC State and will be expensive.

OF James Wood, IMG Academy [FL] (#9)
This one would really be a hometown pick, as James Wood grew up in Olney, Maryland, about twenty miles due north of Nationals Park. He attends the famed IMG Academy down in Florida along with numerous other 2021 and 2022 draft prospects, where he's actually their second best draft prospect behind 2022's Elijah Green. Wood is a towering 6'6" slugger who can absolutely punish a baseball when he connects, but the separating factor is actually his hit tool. He makes surprisingly easy contact for a hitter so big and so strong, identifying balls and strikes well against elite competition. That makes him all the more dangerous and has earned him comparisons to Zac Veen, who went ninth overall to the Rockies last year, though Wood has more present power. He's an easygoing kid who plays the game with an ultra-low heartbeat, somewhat the opposite of Kahlil Watson above him on this list, letting his play do the talking. For now, he's a good athlete as well who can actually handle center field, but he'll likely slow down as he ages and right field is probably the best fit with his cannon arm. Wood has true middle-of-the-order upside as a kid who could hit 30+ home runs per season with high on-base percentages. Committed to Mississippi State, he will likely be an expensive sign.

A few other possibilities
RHP McCade Brown, Indiana
OF Christian Franklin, Arkansas
C Luca Tresh, North Carolina State
RHP Chase Petty, Mainland Regional HS [NJ]
C Harry Ford, North Cobb HS [GA]

Updates on those mentioned last time

RHP Richard Fitts, Auburn (#43): 0-3, 7.71 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 16/6 K/BB in 18.2 IP.
Fitts had a chance to pitch himself into top ten consideration with a strong spring, but instead he lost his rotation spot at Auburn as he's proven more hittable than expected despite filling up the strike zone relatively well. Analytics-driven teams will still like his high spin fastball and pair of nice secondaries, but because he hasn't proven he can start, he figures to go closer to the back of the first round at best.

LHP Steven Hajjar, Michigan (#56): 1-0, 2.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 42/10 K/BB in 35.1 IP.
It's been a much stronger season for Hajjar than for Fitts, but Hajjar was a long shot two months ago and hasn't taken the step forward he needed. His velocity is still relatively fringy around 90, peaking into the low 90's, which isn't enough this early in the draft. He has promising secondaries and has thrown more consistent strikes in 2021, so he'll still be a strong option in the second round, perhaps even for the Nationals at pick #47.

RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State (#37): 2-3, 6.67 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 25/12 K/BB in 29.2 IP.
It's been an unfortunate season for Jaden Hill at every step of the way. A potential top five pick coming into the season, concerns started to crop up when his slider proved more inconsistent than expected and he failed to miss as many bats with his fastball as some scouts had hoped. Then on April 2nd in a highly touted matchup against potential first overall pick Jack Leiter, he walked off the field holding his elbow and ended up needing Tommy John surgery. It is truly remarkable how Jaden Hill has transformed himself as a pitcher over three years in Baton Rouge, but now with two season-ending injuries in three years and no consistent track record of starting, it's really hard to project him as a long term starter in the big leagues. I don't think the Nationals would bite at #11, but if he slipped to #47 in the second round, I could see them paying him well above slot to sign.

3B Alex Binelas, Louisville (#40): 7 HR, .231/.319/.496, 2 SB, 30/12 K/BB in 30 games.
It hasn't exactly been smooth sailing for Alex Binelas. After taking the ACC by storm as a freshman (.291/.383/.612), he played just two games a sophomore due to a broken hand. Healthy in 2021, he struggled mightily out of the gate with just one hit in his first six games against relatively weak competition. He's since shown glimpses of the star he was as a freshman, including a four game stretch against NC State, Western Kentucky, and Notre Dame in which he went 9-15 with three home runs, but overall he just hasn't been able to recover the stock he lost with those early season struggles. Combine that with a move to first base for Louisville, and he fits closer to the back of the first round at best right now.

RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS [FL] (#26)
I considered including Andrew Painter on this list again this time around, but ultimately I opted for the two prep arms trending up (Jackson Jobe and Bubba Chandler) rather than one trending down. Painter's stock isn't crashing, per se, but he's no longer the consensus top pitcher in the class after a spring where his command has been a bit shakier than before and he's been hit a little harder. There's still a lot to like in a 6'6" right hander who can hit the mid 90's, adds a full arsenal, and shows well above average command at times, but not at pick #11. He could be an option for the Nationals at pick #47 if they want to sign him way above slot. He's committed to Florida and will want first round money no matter what.

SS Brady House, Winder-Barrow HS [GA] (#5)
Unlike the other names that I included last time but didn't this time, Brady House isn't slipping. Instead, he's continued to wow evaluators with his huge tool set and I think it's highly unlikely he gets to the Nationals at pick #11 unless his signing bonus demands are outrageous. If House goes out and lights up the pre-draft showcases like I expect him to, we'll see him go well within the top ten picks.

2021 MLB Draft: Ten early options for the Nationals at pick #11

The Nationals will pick eleventh overall in this year's draft, the highest they've picked since selecting Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon sixth overall in 2011. Rendon was the fourth in an extremely successful run of first round picks, including Stephen Strasburg (1st overall, 2009), Drew Storen (10th overall, 2009), and Bryce Harper (1st overall, 2010). Since Rendon, the Nationals have not had overwhelming success in the first round, with perhaps Erick Fedde (18th overall, 2014) and Carter Kieboom (28th overall, 2016) being the only ones to make any kind of impact on the big league club so far. Lucas Giolito (16th overall, 2012) has become a star, but with the White Sox.

Recent first round picks:
2020: RHP Cade Cavalli, Oklahoma (22nd overall)
2019: RHP Jackson Rutledge, San Jacinto CC (17th overall)
2018: RHP Mason Denaburg, Merritt Island HS, FL (27th overall)
2017: LHP Seth Romero, Houston (25th overall)
2016: SS Carter Kieboom, Walton HS, GA (28th overall)

There's a clear trend with the Nationals, a more traditional organization that likes big college pitchers and isn't afraid of a little injury history. Cavalli, Denaburg, Fedde, Giolito, and Rendon all had significant injury history when the Nationals drafted then, and Romero was healthy but saw his stock drop due to serious off-field makeup concerns. To this point, Kieboom has been a moderate success, and the jury is still out on Romero, Rutledge, and Cavalli. Meanwhile, Denaburg has been limited to just 20.1 innings with a 7.52 ERA in complex ball, and while at 21 years old he still has a chance to reclaim his prospect status, that one may end up being a bust. Now, a lot will definitely change between February and July, but heading into the spring season, here are ten names for Nationals fans to track.

RHP Ty Madden, Texas
2019-2020: 7-1, 2.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 63/28 K/BB in 67.1 IP.
This one fits the Nationals' drafting style to a tee. First, we can look at the relatively meaningless geographic parallels, as the Houston-area native follows Houston picks Rendon, Romero, and Rutledge, and would also give the Nationals a second consecutive Big 12 arm after Cavalli. More importantly, Ty Madden is a very traditional 6'3" college righty except for a bit of a funky arm action, something I'd suspect only further endears him to an organization not afraid of injuries. Madden sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, getting up to 96-97 in games and topping out around 99 in bullpen sessions, putting fairly unique downward angle and run on the ball that makes it difficult to lift. He adds a relatively inconsistent slider that is usually at least average but can flash true plus, and his changeup has been a more stable offering for him that plays consistently above average and flashes plus as well. His command has come along nicely, walking just four of 97 batters in 2020 (a 4.1% rate, down from 13% in 2019), though the Nationals' brass will want to see him hold that command over a full season. If things break right for him and he stays healthy (or perhaps even if he doesn't), I'm sure the Nationals will take a very hard look at the potential #2 starter.

RHP Richard Fitts, Auburn
2019-2020: 6-3, 4.88 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 63/22 K/BB in 75.2 IP.
Richard Fitts has a little bit more to prove than Madden, having pitched mostly out of the bullpen so far at Auburn, but he has a chance to don the Curly W as well. Another big, 6'3" righty, Fitts impressed evaluators at fall practice in 2020 and pushed his way from a second or third round projection to a legitimate first round contender. In the fall, he worked in a starting role where his fastball began consistently hitting the mid 90's, playing up due to the tough crossfire angle he puts on the ball. The Birmingham-area native adds a downer slider and an above average splitter, and he lands all three pitches for strikes consistently. He looked the part of a future mid-rotation starter in the fall, and if he can hold that profile in the spring, a traditional organization like the Nationals could pounce very early. Watch to see if his velocity and command hold.

LHP Steven Hajjar, Michigan
2020: 3-0, 2.70 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 24/11 K/BB in 20 IP.
Like Fitts, Steven Hajjar has a lot to prove in 2021, but he has the chance to establish himself as a prototypical college lefty ace. Currently on the fringes of the first round conversation, Hajjar has thrown just twenty innings in his college career due to a 2019 ACL tear and the 2020 shutdown. 6'5" left handed pitchers will grab the attention of scouts traditional and progressive alike, and that's why teams love his upside. His fastball sits in the low 90's when he's on, while his slider and changeup both flash plus as well. However, we're yet to see any kind of proven consistency, especially considering the Massachusetts native's stuff was down a bit in the fall, his fastball occasionally dipping into the upper 80's and his secondary pitches flattening out. Given that, the fact that he's very young for the class (won't turn 21 until August) really helps his case, and scouts believe that his youth only adds to his upside. If Hajjar comes out this spring holding more consistent fastball velocity and taking a step forward with his command, which is presently below average, he could fly off the board. From there, it would be easy to project plus stuff and an impact starter ceiling on him.

RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State
2019-2020: 1-0, 0.83 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 28/8 K/BB in 21.2 IP.
Jaden Hill, like Hajjar, has barely been on the mound in NCAA play, but that's about where the similarities start and end. While Hajjar is from the Boston suburbs, Hill hails from Ashdown, a small Arkansas town near Texarkana. And while Hajjar might fit more in the early second round if the draft were today, Hill is already firmly in the top ten discussion. The big, 6'4" righty is a former high school quarterback armed with a fastball that has touched the upper 90's in short stints, and his secondary pitches are well ahead of Hajjar's as well. The slider flashes double plus at its best, rendering hitters completely helpless as it dives all the way across the plate, and his changeup has long been a weapon in its own right since his high school days. He recently added a cutter as well, giving him a four pitch arsenal that makes him one of the toughest at bats in college baseball. On top of it all, he's actually proven to be a solid strike thrower, something that usually isn't the case with that kind of elite stuff. Of course, the injury issues are the biggest concern here, as elbow soreness and collarbone surgery (stemming from a high school football injury) kept him off the mound for much of 2019 and the shutdown stopped him in 2020. For that reason, he has not been able to prove his stuff or command can hold over a full season, and it gives him a wide range of outcomes. If Hill comes out and stays healthy for a full season, with his stuff looking as sharp in June as it did in February, there is no chance he makes it to the Nationals at pick #11 – he could legitimately be gone in the first five picks in that case. If his stuff dips early in the season and doesn't come back, then the Nationals might pass on him. But if the stuff stays sharp and he deals with continued nagging injuries, he could perfectly fit the Nationals' draft strategy of targeting high upside starting pitchers with injury concerns. In fact, it really wouldn't be too dissimilar a pick to Cavalli last year.

SS Matt McLain, UCLA
2019-2020: 7 HR, .244/.306/.411, 7 SB, 77/21 K/BB in 74 games.
As far as traditional bats go, Matt McLain is right at the top of the list. A first round pick out of a Los Angeles-area high school in 2018, McLain didn't sign with the Diamondbacks and instead headed to UCLA, where he struggled to a .203/.276/.355 line as a freshman. However, his stock has since recovered and more, with a hot start to the 2020 season (.397/.422/.621) and an even hotter run through summer ball (.436/.536/.773). McLain is a bit undersized at 5'11", but has exceptional feel for the barrel that enables him to spray line drives around the field and could end up giving him 15-20 home run power in time. Though he makes very easy contact most of the time, he can expand the zone against breaking balls and that leads to some minor strikeout concerns. Unless he makes a dramatic shift in his aggressive approach, McLain will likely never draw a ton of walks, but he should hit for a high enough batting average to put up strong on-base percentages. A premium athlete, his plus speed helps him on both sides of the ball and should keep him at shortstop in the long run. Improved plate discipline in 2021 could have him off the board before the Nationals have a chance to make a selection, but his present profile fits right into the Nationals' drafting philosophy.

3B Alex Binelas, Louisville
2019-2020: 14 HR, .286/.376/.596, 3 SB, 50/27 K/BB in 61 games.
If the Nationals decide to go with a college bat, Alex Binelas makes just as much sense as Matt McLain. While he wasn't nearly as famous as McLain at Oak Creek High School in the Milwaukee suburbs, his massive freshman season (14 HR, .291/.383/.612) rocketed him into the national spotlight, but a hand injury in the second game of his sophomore season means that freshman season is all we have to go off of. Binelas brings a lightning quick left handed swing that produces plus raw and game power, sending balls over the fence or to the gaps with consistent triple digit exit velocities. Despite its explosiveness, that swing can get choppy at times, leading to some swing and miss (19.8% K rate as a freshman). It's not a major concern at this point considering he was a freshman in the ACC, but it's something he'll have to cut down on in his junior year, especially in conference play. If he does, he might already be off the board before the Nationals pick at #11, but positional questions could work in Washington's favor if they cause him to slip a little. A third baseman at Louisville, his cannon arm gives him a chance to stick over there, but he's a somewhat choppy defender and might be stretched in the shifting era. The upside in his bat is so great that teams in the top ten picks might be willing to risk a move to first base, but continued swing and miss questions could keep him around for the Nats.

OF Colton Cowser, Sam Houston State
2019-2020: 8 HR, .339/.436/.554, 14 SB, 38/34 K/BB in 70 games.
Another traditional bat for the Nationals to consider is Colton Cowser, who was actually teammates with Ty Madden at Cypress Ranch High School in the Houston suburbs (in addition to top 2019 picks JJ Goss and Matthew Thompson). Cowser might have been the fourth best prospect on that team when he graduated, but he had a massive freshman season (.361/.450/.602) and landed on the US Collegiate National Team. Despite an unspectacular sophomore season (.255/.379/.364), he remains one of the top bats in the college class with premium leadoff potential. Cowser is a true plus hitter, showing a combination of excellent knowledge of the strike zone with excellent bat to ball skills, which he proved with the US CNT. For now, his swing is geared more for line drives than fly balls, but evaluators see his athletic 6'3" frame and think that he could grow into average power, perhaps more if he starts trying to lift the ball. With plus speed and the ability to stick in center field, he may not need to do so in order to become an impact player at the big league level. If Cowser hits in 2021 like he did in 2019, he could fit right in with the Nationals at pick #11.

RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS [FL]
We've hammered home the point that the Nationals are traditional and love pitching, and Andrew Painter fits that to a tee. The Fort Lauderdale native has an extremely projectable 6'6" frame with a full, well rounded arsenal that he can command. Painter's fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, topping out around 95-96 without much effort, but promising more as he fills out his frame. He spins a downer curveball and a more lateral slider, both of which are consistently at least average while flashing above average regularly. With an above average changeup as well, Painter can attack you in a variety of ways. His extremely easy delivery enables him to hit spots as well as anyone in the high school class, and it also raises his floor considerably. Many scouts have likened him to Mick Abel, the first high school pitcher taken in 2020, who lasted until the Phillies at pick #15. It would probably take Painter stepping forward with one of his breaking balls to get the Nationals to bite on him over a guy like Madden or McLain, but if he does, he has as good a chance to land in Washington as anywhere else. The one thing that might hold the Nationals back is Mason Denaburg, their most recent first round high school pitcher, who has struggled to stay healthy since going 27th overall in 2018. Painter won't come cheap, either, holding a commitment to Florida.

RHP Jackson Jobe, Heritage Hall HS [OK]
Right now, Painter is the top high school pitcher in the country, but a lot can change before July. Jackson Jobe was known as more of a hitter a year ago, but a loud summer rocketed him into the first round as a right handed pitcher. The 6'2" convert to pitching already sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, topping out around 95-96 just like Painter, but his secondary pitches are ahead of his counterpart. His slider is one of the best breaking balls in the class, coming in with immense spin rates and tight, late bite. His curveball and changeup both flash above average as well, and he's an athletic kid that fills up the strike zone. Given that he's still new to pitching, Jobe could continue to rise with a strong spring and more consistency, with the potential to become a legitimate big league starting pitcher. If he does, the Nationals could bite as early as pick #11, though one drawback is age, with the Oklahoma City native set to turn 19 in July. Committed to Ole Miss, he'll be draft eligible as a sophomore, which could raise his asking price further.

SS Brady House, Winder-Barrow HS [GA]
We'll round it out with the most famous name in the prep class, shortstop Brady House. Scouts have been excitedly waiting for the Georgian to become draft eligible, as he brings a long track record of hitting against premium pitching. However, House's 2020 summer was just a bit more inconsistent than some scouts had hoped for, and a combination of that and prospect fatigue have allowed Jordan Lawlar, Marcelo Mayer, and perhaps even James Wood to overtake him in the prep bat rankings. Still, House brings a lot to the table. He shows easy plus raw power from the right side, power which he tapped consistently in games going back to when he was an underclassman. At times in 2020, his swing got out of whack as he tried to show off his pop and it came at the expense of his hit tool. The pure hitting ability is there if House trusts himself, and if he proves his summer was just a little blip, he might be gone before the Nationals pick. House is also a solid athlete with a chance to stick at shortstop with some hard work, but most scouts see him sliding over to third base and focusing on his big bat. Additionally, with a June birthday, he's relatively young for the class. Hailing from just outside the Atlanta suburbs, House has a commitment to Tennessee in hand, so if he slips too far past the Nationals with an uneven senior season, he could pull a Dylan Crews and head to school.

A few other possibilities
RHP Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi
RHP Mason Black, Lehigh
OF Jud Fabian, Florida
SS Khalil Watson, Wake Forest HS [NC]
OF James Wood, IMG Academy [FL]

2021 MLB Draft: Ten preseason picks for first overall

Some years, you have a clear first overall pick. Going back, that was the case in the past three drafts, when we saw Auburn's Casey Mize, Oregon State's Adley Rutschman, and Arizona State's Spencer Torkelson cruise to the 1-1 slot. As we head into the 2021 season, we have a frontrunner in Vanderbilt's Kumar Rocker, but he's far from a slam dunk and there are numerous players that could catch him. A lot can and will change between now and July 11th, but for now, here are ten names with a chance to land in Pittsburgh at first overall.

The Frontrunner: RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt
One of the top recruits to make it to campus in 2018, Kumar Rocker has only elevated his profile in the time since. Through 27 appearances (19 starts), he has 14-6 with a 3.06 ERA and a 142/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.2 innings against Vanderbilt's tough schedule, including a nineteen strikeout no-hitter of Duke in the 2019 Nashville Super Regional. The Georgian is an imposing figure at a listed 6'4", 255 pounds, and he brings the stuff to match. Rocker's fastball sits in the mid 90's and touches 99, and he adds in a plus-plus slider with devastating late bite and a well above average changeup with great sink. His command isn't pinpoint, but he fills up the strike zone consistently. His delivery has a few extra moving parts, but it's fluid and he repeats it extremely well. At this point, Rocker emphatically checks all the boxes you want to see at the top of the draft: high-end velocity, a true putaway pitch, a third potential plus pitch, durability, and track record. If we want to nitpick, which you have to at the top of the draft, he doesn't get a ton of swings and misses on his fastball and could be susceptible to the long ball in the majors.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Rocker is in the driver's seat, so he mostly needs to just maintain. That means staying healthy (obviously), continuing to fill up the strike zone, and continuing to miss bats at the ridiculous pace he has in the past. If he wants to truly separate from the pack, getting more whiffs on that fastball would be nice, as would advancing his command (ability to hit spots) to above average to match that above average control (ability to throw strikes).

Quietly Dominant: RHP Jack Leiter, Vanderbilt
Though Kumar Rocker is currently the favorite to go first overall, there are some who think he's the second best pitcher on his own team. Jack Leiter, like Rocker, arrived on campus as one of the top recruits in the country, and he turned heads by firing five innings of one hit ball against Evansville in his first college game. However, because he was a full year older than his graduating class, he's eligible as a sophomore and will turn 21 in April. While Rocker stands out for his stuff while showing strong pitchability, Leiter is the opposite in that he stands out for his pitchability while also showing strong stuff. On the shorter side at six feet tall, his fastball sits in the low 90's but plays up due to his elite ability to release the ball out front, giving him a combination of great extension and a very low (i.e. good) release height. He flips in a curveball in the 70's that already has the depth, and it could be a plus pitch if he continues to put more power behind it. There's a relatively new slider that flashes above average and could be plus in time, while his changeup plays average. Combine that with above average command and plus overall feel for pitching, and you have the building blocks of a big league starter who will stick around for a long time.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Leiter does have some work. Since he didn't graduate high school until he was well past his 19th birthday, he's only gotten to throw 15.2 innings in college so far. While nobody doubts his ability, he has to go out and prove it against Vanderbilt's SEC schedule. Leiter's lack of elite velocity (both on his fastball and his secondaries) might also turn off some evaluators, but he reportedly hit 97 with his fastball in fall practice and getting more consistently into the mid 90's this spring (he was more 90-94 as a freshman) could give him the final bump.

Leading the High School Class: SS Jordan Lawlar, Jesuit HS [TX]
Two years ago, a high school shortstop from the Dallas-Fort Worth Mid-Cities went second overall to the Kansas City Royals, and now Irving native Jordan Lawlar finds his stock at a similar level to Southlake native Bobby Witt Jr. Hailing from the same Jesuit High School program that produced Josh Bell, Kyle Muller, and golfer Jordan Spieth, Lawlar stands at the top of a strong class of high school bats. He stands out first and foremost for his strong feel for the game, making heads up plays consistently on both sides of the ball. He shows a clean swing from the right side, producing plenty of hard, line drive contact against the top arms in the class with ease. Much more than just a slap hitter, the 6'2" teenager has been growing into some legitimate power and now projects for 15-20 home runs per season, perhaps even more, to go along with those high on-base percentages. He's also one of the better defenders in the class and will stick at shortstop, making his bat look even better, and his plus speed means that you'd be hard pressed to find a hole in his game. The only knock on Lawlar at this point is his age, as a July birthday means he'll already be 19 on draft day. The rest of his profile is so strong, though, that it's hard to hold that against him.
What he needs to do to go first overall: He's so close, so the answer is not much other than maintain. Tapping his power more consistently while continuing to get on base at a high clip would certainly help, as it's the only place he doesn't grade out as true plus. Otherwise, if the Vanderbilt commit continues to steal the show this spring like he did over the summer, he's right there.

Right Behind Lawlar: SS Marcelo Mayer, Eastlake HS [CA]
While Jordan Lawlar has but some narrow daylight between himself and the rest of the high school class, Marcelo Mayer is right on his heels. Mayer, like Lawlar, comes from a powerhouse program, with suburban San Diego's Eastlake High School having produced Adrian Gonzalez, Casey Schmitt, and Keoni Cavaco. Also like Lawlar, he has great feel for the game and an easy plus hit tool, but comes with perhaps even more power projection due to an explosive, but clean, left handed swing and a projectable 6'3" frame. He's also an even better shortstop than Lawlar, but lacks his counterpart's plus speed on the bases. Personally, I like Mayer's ceiling even better than I do Lawlar's, with a real possibility of 25 home runs per season with high on-base percentages and potential Gold Glove defense at a premium position.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Mayer needs to tap his power in games. He's done so occasionally, but while he has the lead over Lawlar in terms of power projection, Lawlar has tapped his more consistently to this point. By closing the gap between his present and projected power, Mayer can help scouts feel more confident he'll tap his massive ceiling. Given that the Southern California commit already possesses exceptional feel for the barrel, nobody's all that concerned anyways.

Tools and Track Record: OF Jud Fabian, Florida
Jud Fabian graduated high school a year early and got to campus at Florida just before his 18th birthday, and now he won't turn 21 until multiple months after the draft. After a respectable freshman campaign (.232/.353/.411), Fabian broke out as a sophomore (.294/.407/.603, 5 HR in 17 games) and now has a pair of strong summers in the Cape Cod League and Florida Collegiate League under his belt. Listed at 6'2", he packs above average raw power into his athletic frame and taps it consistently in games due to his strong plate discipline. He's also an above average runner with the chance to stick in center field, meaning he can impact the game in as many ways as anybody in this class. If there's one concern for the Ocala native, it's the pure bat to ball skills, as he has some minor swing and miss concerns in the zone despite good pitch recognition and selection.
What he needs to do to go first overall: For me personally, cutting down on swing and miss in the zone would be a big plus. It's not something I'm particularly concerned about, but it brings what could be a 55 or 60 hit tool based on his plate discipline down to more of a 50. That could help him really showcase his power, and with all the walks he draws and his ability to steal bases and play up the middle, we could have a pretty complete ballplayer in that case that would be hard to turn down.

Loud Stuff, Quiet Track Record: RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State
Pitch for pitch, Kumar Rocker might not have the best stuff in this class – that may very well be LSU's Jaden Hill. Hailing from a small town outside Texarkana, Hill was another big recruit who has seen his stuff improve considerably in Baton Rouge. Originally a fastball/changeup pitcher, he touched the upper 90's in his few short stints in game action and still shows plus potential with his changeup. The difference between now and three years ago, however, is his slider, which has improved from a fringy offering to a true plus pitch that flashes plus-plus. The Arkansas native is also working on a cutter that flashes above average, rounding out his arsenal. Hill has never had trouble throwing strikes and now that his quarterback career is through, the 6'4", 235 pounder looks the part of a durable starter as well.
What he needs to do to go first overall: In one sentence, he needs his stuff to be just as loud at the end of the season as it is at the start. Injuries as a freshman plus the coronavirus shutdown have limited him to 21.2 innings, mostly as a reliever, so he simply has not proven that his stuff can hold up over long stretches. To this point, Hill has done nothing to prove he can't be a front of the rotation type, so he just needs to prove he can.

The Pure Bat: C Adrian Del Castillo, Miami
The title says it all here – there isn't a more professional hitter in this class than Adrian Del Castillo. The Miami native is a career .336/.430/.571 hitter for the Hurricanes with 14 home runs and significantly more walks (43) than strikeouts (32), showing the calm, confident, mature hitting ability that few can rival. Though he's just 5'11" and stockily built at that, he possesses above average raw power that he taps consistently in games to go along with his plus hit tool. Del Castillo's short-to-it, long-through-it swing is perfectly geared for putting barrel to baseball, combining with his plus plate discipline to help him execute as consistently as anyone. On defense, there are more question marks. He carries over his feel for the game behind the plate, showing good fundamentals and an accurate arm, but he lacks the athleticism and explosiveness you'd like to see in a catching prospect. He's working hard to improve back there, but it's far from a guarantee at this point.
What he needs to do to go first overall: As far as the bat goes, he just has to maintain. However, there needs to be improvement in the glove. If Del Castillo has to move off catcher, 5'11" is a little short for first base and his below average speed and unspectacular arm would limit him to a mediocre left field. If he can get a little smoother behind the plate, showing better ability to get down and block balls in the dirt/put a little more power on his throws, scouts can be more confident they won't have to accept a defensive liability at 1B/LF. Honestly, if he proves he can stick behind the plate this spring, consider Adrian Del Castillo a top-three candidate to go first overall.

The Former First Rounder: SS Matt McLain, UCLA
While Vanderbilt's Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter had first round pedigree coming out of high school, Matt McLain was actually drafted 25th overall in 2018, but did not sign with the Diamondbacks. His freshman season was disappointing (.203/.276/.355), but since the calendar flipped to 2020, McLain has seen his stock explode. He hit .397/.422/.621 in thirteen games as a sophomore, then a ridiculous .436/.536/.773 with seven home runs over the summer in the California Collegiate League. The Los Angeles-area native appears slight in stature at 5'11", but he's an explosive athlete that churns out plus run times and hits for more power than you'd expect. His quick right handed swing enables him to make plenty of hard contact, also helping that power play up to average so far, with the chance to get to above average. He can be a bit choppy at shortstop but overall projects to stick there with a strong arm and plenty of speed. McLain's main drawback is a susceptibility to offspeed stuff, part of an overall aggressive approach that can limit his on-base percentages.
What he needs to do to go first overall: McLain will always be projected as a hit-over-power guy, so in order to make his way to the very top of the class, he'll naturally need to prove that hit tool is rock-solid. To do that, he'll need to lay off breaking balls out of the zone in 2021, and overall bring his walk rate up considerably. That walk rate is 6.7% for his career, so we'd really like to see something in the double digits in 2021 with a reduction in the strikeout rate.

The Next Texas Horse: RHP Ty Madden, Texas
Ty Madden has been trending up ever since his high school days in the Houston suburbs, where he was teammates with JJ Goss (Rays, comp round 2019), Matthew Thompson (White Sox, second round 2019), and Colton Cowser (Sam Houston State, likely first round 2021). Madden had a 3.40 ERA and a 37/24 strikeout to walk ratio in 42.1 innings as a freshman, then ramped that up to a 1.80 ERA and a 26/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 25 innings as a sophomore. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, topping out around 96-97 in games and as high as 99 in fall practice, and the pitch plays up further due to the tough angle and run he puts on it. His slider has been relatively inconsistent, shortening up at times but showing true plus at others. Madden also possesses one of the better changeups in the class, an above average pitch that is more consistent than his slider. His command has steadily improved and he has no trouble filling up the strike zone nowadays, and while some stabbing motion in the back of his delivery and a funky arm path worry some scouts, he has been durable to this point.
What he needs to do to go first overall: There aren't any giant leaps that need to be made. Rather, incremental improvements in various parts of his game could do the trick for the 6'3" right hander. Maintaining his low to mid 90's fastball over a full season, getting a little more consistent with that slider, and refining his command just a touch would all help. There's really not much to dislike in Madden's game, so he just needs to continue to prove it.

The Sleeper: RHP Ryan Cusick, Wake Forest
I don't think Ryan Cusick is one of the ten most likely players to go first overall, but it's not impossible and it's really fun to think about. Hailing from the same Connecticut boarding school, the Avon Old Farms School, that produced George Springer and 2020 Orioles second rounder Hudson Haskin, Cusick's 5.63 ERA and 98/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 innings highlight the up and down nature of his career in Winston-Salem. The Boston-area native has a wicked fastball that can touch 97-98 in games with great ride that makes it tough to square up, though he can dip into the low 90's fairly frequently. His slider flashes true plus, perhaps even plus-plus, but frequently flattens out into a below average pitch. He also throws an average changeup and can flip in a slurvy curveball. His command has been wildly inconsistent, from fringe average as a freshman to well below average as a sophomore (18 walks in 22.1 innings) and back to fringe average in summer ball. Cusick reaches his velocity pretty easily, and he's gotten more coordinated with his lanky 6'6" frame and explosive stuff.
What he needs to do to go first overall: A lot. Cusick took a big step forward with an exceptional summer in the Coastal Plain League (1.14 ERA, 40/9 K/BB), but he needs to continue to prove himself in the spring. The Pirates won't consider him unless he gets close to average command on a consistent basis, and his slider needs to take that last step forward and stop flattening out. That's all easier said than done, but if the draft were held to day, I don't think Cusick would be a factor in the top half of the first round.

Honorable Mentions

3B Alex Binelas, Louisville: Binelas had as loud of a freshman season as you can have (14 HR, .291/.383/.612), showing as explosive of a bat as any in the class. His lightning quick swing gives him massive raw power and elite exit velocities, while his strong feel for the barrel enables him to tap that power consistently in games. His swing can be a bit rigid, as can his actions at third base, so he lacks the up the middle projection you usually see with the first overall pick. The Milwaukee-area native also lacks the plus hit tool that Spencer Torkelson had, so for that reason, it's hard to envision a path to the very top of the draft.

SS Brady House, Winder-Barrow HS [GA]: The most famous name in the high school class coming into the summer, House hasn't faltered so much as players like Jordan Lawlar and Marcelo Mayer have simply outperformed him. Coming from just outside the Atlanta suburbs, he shows plus raw power that he has consistently tapped in games against top competition. His hit tool has been more inconsistent, as he goes through stretches where he is completely unfazed by velocity and high-end breaking stuff, but at others he shows a bit more swing and miss than you'd like. The 6'3" shortstop's right handed swing could use a little fine tuning, as it's simple and explosive when he stays within himself but can get out of whack at times, and he'll need to learn to add loft regardless. House has a chance to stick at shortstop, but he might outgrow the position and move to third base.

OF James Wood, IMG Academy [FL]: Wood has been one of the fastest risers in the class as he's proven his hit tool more and more. Growing up on the Maryland side of the DC suburbs, he transferred to the famous IMG Academy outside Tampa and it's paying off. The 6'6" giant has a very laid back playing style, showing up in a calm demeanor and a patient approach at the plate. When he swings, though, he unleashes huge raw power that comes from a combination of loft, strength, and extension in his left handed swing. He possesses a keen eye at the plate and won't chase bad pitches, though he can get himself into deep counts and swing and miss from there occasionally. An above average runner for now, he has a chance to stick in center field and could be a plus defender in right.

RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS [FL]
No high school right handed pitcher has ever gone first overall, and while that's unlikely to change in 2021, it's hard to find anything wrong with Andrew Painter. He's a towering 6'6" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball that tops out around 95-96, with that projectable frame promising more velocity. He adds a pair of good breaking balls in a downer curveball and a more lateral slider, neither of which is a true plus pitch but both of which are consistently at least average and flash above average. His changeup is the same story, playing at least average consistently and flashing above. Unlike most high school pitchers with his build, he's a polished strike thrower with an easy, simple delivery, making him the complete package at a young age. The next step, aside from staying healthy, will be refining at least one of his breaking balls into a plus pitch.

RHP Richard Fitts, Auburn
Fitts was one of the fall's biggest risers, pushing himself from a fringe-day one arm to a true first round talent. Mostly a swingman over his first two years at Auburn, the Birmingham-area native sat around 90 with his fastball and showed promise with his secondaries and command as a reliever. He earned a starting role over the summer and in the fall, where his fastball actually ticked up into the low to mid 90's, playing up due to the tough angle he puts on his pitches. His downer slider and nice splitter both flash above average, and as he did as a reliever, he throws strikes with all three pitches. With a durable 6'3" frame, he has all the starter traits necessary to project in the rotation long term, and he just needs to go out and prove it this spring.

2021 MLB Draft: an early look at the ACC

 Originally published in Prospects Worldwide on October 27th.

The third conference in our draft preview series, the ACC class is shaping up very differently than the Big 12 and the SEC.

The Big 12 is led by big arms in Texas’ Ty Madden and Kansas State’s Jordan Wicks, but is virtually devoid of true impact bats. Meanwhile, the SEC has some big name bats in Florida’s Jud Fabian, Arkansas’ Christian Franklin, and Tennessee’s duo of Jake Rucker and Max Ferguson, but aside from Fabian, most of the bats in the conference have a lot to prove in 2021. Meanwhile, here in the ACC, we’re absolutely loaded with offensive firepower, to the point that only two pitchers crack the ACC’s top ten prospects. They say that SEC hitters have to face a “gauntlet” of high powered arms, and that’s certainly true this year with too many to name. Over in the ACC, it will be the pitchers who will have to run down a gauntlet of high powered lineups.

Louisville, after putting five players into pro ball last year despite the shortened draft, dominates this list with two of the top three and four of the top ten names and a couple more who just missed the cut. Miami, who lost its entire weekend rotation but brings in arguably the top recruiting class in the entire country, will be a hotspot for 2021 draft talent as well, and Boston College might have the best collection of talent in recent program memory. Below are the top ten 2021 prospects in the ACC, followed by a team by team rundown of other names to watch (with apologies to Pittsburgh and my alma mater, Virginia Tech, who just don’t have much going for them).

1. C Adrian Del Castillo, Miami – ACC

Bat: L. Throw: R. 5’11”, 210 lbs. Born 9/27/1999. Hometown: Miami, FL
2019-2020: 14 HR, .336/.430/.571, 4 SB, 32/43 K/BB in 77 games.

Ironically, the top offensive prospects in the SEC (Jud Fabian) and ACC share a birthday on September 27th, only Adrian Del Castillo will be turning 21 and Fabian will be turning 20 because he reclassified. Del Castillo is simply a hitter – he hit .331/.418/.576 as a true freshman, then .358/.478/.547 as a sophomore, and sandwiched between that was a respectable .273/.323/.427 line in the elite Cape Cod League as a teenager. Not only is he the ACC’s top offensive prospect this year, he’s right up there with Fabian and UCLA’s Matt McLain as arguably college baseball’s top offensive prospect as a whole.

The bat is legit. A left handed hitter, Del Castillo combines a clean, compact swing with great extension through the ball and plenty of strength packed into his 5’11” frame. This enables the Miami native to show above average power in games, and with five home runs on the Cape as a teenager, he can get to it with wood bats and against high level pitching. More impressive than his power, however, is his professional approach at the plate. He’s extremely disciplined with just a 12.9% strikeout rate for his career at Miami compared to a 17.3% walk rate, and that’s been against a tough schedule. He should have no trouble not only handling professional pitching, but hitting for impact.

Del Castillo's defense is another story. The exceptional feel he shows for hitting carries over behind the plate, where he's a fundamentally sound catcher who gets the job done all around. However, he lacks the explosive arm strength of many of his contemporaries and the raw athleticism to create the "brick wall" effect. Given his work ethic and feel for the game, it's easy to see him working his way towards average defense, and if he can indeed stick behind the plate, the bat will be special. Even if he's forced off of catcher to first base or left field, where he'd likely be below average, the bat is potent enough to still warrant a first round selection. At his ceiling, Del Castillo could produce 20-30 home runs annually with high on-base percentages.

2. C Henry Davis, Louisville – ACC

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’2″, 195 lbs. Born 9/21/1999. Hometown: Bedford, NY
2019-2020: 6 HR, .303/.381/.463, 1 SB, 22/21 K/BB in 59 games.

The ACC starts off with not one, but two elite catchers, though Henry Davis is a very different prospect from Adrian Del Castillo. A well-known defense-first prospect coming out of the New York high school ranks, he made it to Louisville and held his own with a .280/.345/.386 slash line as a freshman, elevating his stock a little bit. Then, he returned as a sophomore in 2020 and smoked the baseball nonstop, slashing .372/.481/.698 with three home runs and twice as many walks as strikeouts in 14 games. And while the schedule wasn’t particularly strong, he did pick up four hits, including three doubles, in eight at bats (plus two walks) against Ole Miss and homered against Wake Forest. The result is a defense-first catcher who suddenly knows how to hit, which is, you know, ideal.

Let’s talk about that bat. It was pretty light in high school, not uncommon for catchers even heading to premium programs like Louisville. The first thing he showed as a freshman was the hit tool, as he struck out in just 12.2% of his plate appearances – very impressive for a 19 year old in the ACC. Then in 2020, albeit in a small sample size, came the power, when he homered in his final two games against Wake Forest and Chicago State. Davis derives that power from a crouched load, using his legs to explode outwards at the baseball and plus bat to ball skills to find the barrel more and more consistently.There’s some minor bat wrap in that setup, but that above average to potentially plus hit tool allows me to be comfortable with it overall. The overall setup might need to be quieted just a bit in pro ball, but again, with his great feel for the barrel, I’m not worried.

On defense, he has always stood out for an exceptional right arm that can virtually shut down the running game, having thrown out 12/33 runners so far at Louisville. His glovework is more ordinary, but as with Del Castillo, it’s trending in the right direction and he should be a net-positive overall with that arm. He’ll more than likely stick behind the plate, making his offensive profile much more appealing. If he can continue hitting in 2021 like he did in 2020, when he showed a plus hit tool and solid average power in a small sample, he could vault himself into top ten pick consideration, much like Dillon Dingler may have with more opportunity last year.

3. 3B Alex Binelas, Louisville – ACC

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6’3, 210 lbs. Born 5/26/2000. Hometown: Oak Creek, WI
2019-2020: 14 HR, .286/.376/.596, 3 SB, 50/27 K/BB in 61 games.

Henry Davis just edges out Alex Binelas on my draft board, but Binelas might have the most exciting bat in the Louisville lineup, itself one of the strongest in the entire country. Hailing from the Milwaukee-area prep ranks, he burst onto the scene as a freshman in 2019 and slashed .291/.383/.612 with 14 home runs and 33 extra base hits overall in 59 games, immediately establishing himself as one of the top names in a draft that was still two years away at the time. His encore in 2020 ended abruptly when he injured his hand against Ole Miss in just the second game of the season, so for now, all we have to go off is that exceptional freshman season.

The very first thing I notice with Binelas, beyond the numbers, is his swing. It’s lightning quick and incredibly explosive, allowing him to punish velocity by sending the baseball impressive distances. It can get a little choppy at times, which leads to some swing and miss questions, but it’s hard to teach bat speed like that. His plate discipline was decent but nothing special in that big freshman season, though it’s a bit unfair to judge his approach based on a freshman run through the ACC. 2021 will be a big opportunity for him to elevate his stock in that regard, especially considering the tangential questions about his hit tool. Still, you don’t knock 33 extra base hits as a freshman in the ACC without at least some feel for hitting, and his offensive upside is perhaps the best in the ACC.

On defense, we see somewhat of a similar story. Binelas shows a strong arm from third base, though he’s a bit choppy with the glove and makes for a decent overall third baseman. A few years ago, scouts might have been comfortable calling it “good enough” and letting him deploy that arm over there, but with shifting becoming a huge part of a third baseman’s job, his range becomes a little more stretched. That could lead to a move to first base or right field depending on his progress, where the pressure would increase on his hit tool. He has some to prove in 2021, but his combination of upside and college track record will be hard to match anywhere in the draft.

4. OF Sal Frelick, Boston College – ACC

Bat: L. Throw: R. 5’9″, 175 lbs. Born 4/2000. Hometown: Lexington, MA
2019-2020: 6 HR, .332/.428/.486, 25 SB, 22/33 K/BB in 54 games.

Boston College has the best group of draft talent it’s seen in years, and right at the top of that list is Sal Frelick. Though smaller in stature, he’s exploding with tools and jumped out to a .367/.447/.513 slash line with 18 stolen bases and more walks (22) than strikeouts as a freshman in 2019. Though his 2020 started slower before the shutdown (.241/.380/.414), he picked it right back up in summer ball with a .398/.473/.592 run through the FCBL. No question, this kid can flat out play.

Frelick’s big numbers have mostly come from a true plus hit tool, which has enabled him to strike out in just 8.8% of his plate appearances so far at Boston College. Though undersized, his exceptional feel for the barrel combined with innate athleticism enables him to hit for more power than you’d expect, with plenty of doubles, triples, and even home runs. The Boston-area native shows plus-plus speed that has enabled him to steal 25 bases in 28 tries at BC, and that becomes 35 bases in 39 tries when combined with his summer stats. He shows great range in the outfield and should be an asset in center field, giving him nearly the total package.

Let’s talk swing mechanics. Frelick has a simple swing in which he keeps the barrel in the zone for a long time, which is a good thing, and when he gets his pitch, it can be a really smooth, pretty swing at that. His mechanics can vary more than most tend to, and when he doesn’t get his pitch, he tends to flail at the ball. The good news is that his elite barrel control still enables him to make very consistent contact on those pitches, and strikeouts have never been even remotely a concern. Watching him hit, it’s actually pretty impressive to see him way out on his front foot and still drop singles the other way or put difficult pitches in play, but going forward he’ll probably want to accept a little more swing and miss so that he can get his “A” swing off more often than not. With his strong pitch recognition skills, a more consistently upright Frelick could be a true impact hitter at the next level, despite being one of the smallest guys on the field.

5. RHP Ryan Cusick, Wake Forest – ACC

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’6″, 225 lbs. Born 11/12/1999. Hometown: Sudbury, MA
2019-2020: 7-5, 5.63 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 98/47 K/BB in 88 innings.

In contrast to the hitters, there aren’t any truly complete pitching prospects in the ACC. Ryan Cusick can’t even be considered the closest in that regard, but the stuff is nonetheless exciting. Though he hails from the Boston suburbs, Cusick attended the Avon Old Farms boarding school in Connecticut that produced George Springer and 2020 second rounder Hudson Haskin, and looks to be the latest in a strong line of baseball players from the Hartford-area powerhouse. His freshman season was pretty ordinary in 2019, putting up a 6.44 ERA and a 55/29 strikeout to walk ratio across 65.2 innings, but he raised a lot of eyebrows in 2020 when his stuff took a big step forward. That led to a 3.22 ERA and a 43/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 22.1 innings, and in this case, scouting the stat line does indeed tell the story.

Cusick is a 6’6″ right hander with wicked stuff at his best. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s, can bump as high as 97-98, and you’ll notice in this video that he hit 95 on his 103rd and final pitch of the game against Louisville. He can also rip off a wicked slider with serious bite, a true plus pitch at its best, but at times it can flatten out considerably. His third pitch is his changeup, which he doesn’t use often, but he can flash a solid average one with nice fade to the arm side. All of this was on full display in the Coastal Plain League over the summer, where he dominated with a 1.14 ERA and a 40/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.2 innings.

Of course, the big question here is command and consistency, with the aforementioned breaking ball problems and the fact that he walked 18 batters in 22.1 innings last year. Prior to that, though, he had only walked 36 batters in 101.1 innings between his freshman season and the Cape Cod League, and then he walked just nine in 23.2 innings this summer. That suggests that he may simply need time to learn to harness that newfound stuff, and if the summer numbers are telling the truth, he already has. Cusick is a prime contender for a breakout in 2021, one who could rocket up boards similarly to how Bobby Miller did so a year ago. He clearly has the arm strength to start, so if he can just take even incremental steps forward with his consistency and command, good things will happen to his projections. If not, he has a high floor as a fastball/slider reliever who could see high leverage innings in the big leagues.

6. 2B Cody Morissette, Boston College – ACC

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6′, 175 lbs. Born 1/16/2000. Hometown: Exeter, NH
2019-2020: 6 HR, .346/.402/.512, 11 SB, 43/29 K/BB in 73 games.

Sal Frelick and his teammate Cody Morissette form arguably the best 1-2 lineup punch in college baseball, and while they have put up similar numbers at Boston College, they’re very different players. Morissette gave a strong first impression as a freshman in 2019, hitting .320/.371/.476 across 58 games, then exploded for a .448/.522/.655 line in 15 games a s a sophomore in 2020. That wasn’t a product of a weak schedule, as he picked up six hits in three games against Arizona State and eight hits in three games against Clemson.

We could go on and on about how Frelick’s tools impact the game, but with Morissette, he just hits – and I mean that as a compliment. He has no trouble squaring up advanced pitching with a very steady hit tool and emerging power, and he’s been extremely consistent at BC. It may seem like a high-floor, low-ceiling projection, but that consistent bat has shown more and more impact over time and he could be ready for a very loud 2021 campaign. At six feet tall, the New Hampshire native doesn’t have a big frame but isn’t the smallest guy on the field either, so the hope is that he could end up with a 15-20 home run bat down the line.

Defensively, Morissette won’t wow anybody, looking more than capable at second base but probably a bit stretched at shortstop. If he doesn’t generate enough impact to start, he could handle the prime position on a part time basis, and his experience all over the diamond aids him in the shifting era. Personally, I see some Keston Hiura here (albeit in the other batters box), though Hiura had that huge junior season going for him and Morissette looks to be the slightly better defender. Hiura went ninth overall out of UC Irvine in 2017, so don’t sleep on Morissette’s draft ceiling if he can put together a big junior year like he’s capable of.

7. OF Robby Martin, Florida State – ACC

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6’3″, 210 lbs. Born 8/17/1999. Hometown: Tampa, FL
2019-2020: 4 HR, .317/.408/.440, 3 SB, 76/45 K/BB in 80 games.

The bats just keep on coming. Leading the way in one of the most talented outfields in the country is Florida State’s Robby Martin, a steady .317/.408/.440 hitter during his time in Tallahassee. A highly touted prep outfielder coming from the Tampa area, Martin has steadily improved at FSU and now has evaluators excitedly pegging him for a breakout.

More about projection as a high schooler, Martin now has legitimate tools across the board and can impact the game in many ways. He’s maintained the above average speed and strong hit tool from high school, but with lots of added strength and a track record of hitting in college, he’s a much more complete prospect. Martin uses and opposite field approach that results in a lot of line drives and otherwise hard contact, which has enabled him to produce at FSU and in the Florida Collegiate Summer League (.313/.397/.417).

To this point, he hasn’t shown much in-game power, but he has really tacked on strength in Tallahassee and filled out his 6’3″ frame. Though his power isn’t quite as robust, he finds himself in a similar position to where Vanderbilt’s JJ Bleday was heading into the 2019 season, and a more power conscious and launch angle-conscious swing could have him headed for a breakout. If so, we could be talking straight 55 grades across almost every tool and a first round selection.

8. 3B Zack Gelof, Virginia – ACC

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’3″, 205 lbs. Born 10/19/1999. Hometown: Lewes, DE.
2019-2020: 7 HR, .321/.399/.472, 20 SB, 70/37 K/BB in 74 games.

As someone who played a lot of baseball on the Delmarva Peninsula growing up, it’s cool to see the region’s first big name draft prospect since Tyler Webb (via South Carolina in 2013). While they’re not the best at cranking out reliable pitching, UVA has a nice track record of producing competent, disciplined hitters like Pavin Smith, Adam Haseley, and Matt Thaiss in recent years, and Delaware native Zack Gelof is one of two big bats they’re sending out this year. He adapted to college pitching well as a freshman (.313/.377/.396), hit well in the Northwoods League over the summer (.349/.426/.490), and was off to an exceptional start in 2020 with a .349/.469/.746 line and five home runs in eighteen games.

Gelof does not have one standout tool, but shows well across the board. He’s smoothed out his right handed swing since high school and has produced plenty of hard contact in college, using Davenport Field’s spacious gaps to his advantage for plenty of extra base hits. He started turning those gappers into home runs in 2020, and evaluators are excited to see if he can maintain that power surge in 2021. If so, it would help alleviate some questions about his hit tool, as he is very adept at finding the barrel but has not shown the great K/BB ratio’s seen with many of his predecessors in Charlottesville. In 2020, he upped his walk rate to a nice 15.9%, but still struck out 22% of the time after showing similar strikeout rates throughout his career.

Gelof finds himself in a good spot heading into 2020. By either maintaining his power surge or lowering his strikeout rate, he could easily find himself in the first round. However, if he can’t do either, I think most evaluators would feel more comfortable pegging a 50 hit, 50 power third baseman in the second. His glove should help him, as he’s proven very capable at third base and will easily handle shifting. There are a lot of 50’s and 55’s in his profile, not too dissimilar to Robby Martin above him on this list, though Martin is just a little bit toolsier. Gelof is praised for his feel for the game and ability to play above his tools.

9. OF Levi Usher, Louisville – ACC

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6′, 210 lbs. Born 6/25/2000. Hometown: Fairfax, IA
2020: 2 HR, .411/.484/.571, 11 SB, 14/7 K/BB in 16 games.

The last three players on this list (Cody Morissette, Robby Martin, and Zack Gelof) did a lot of things well, but didn’t flash individual “wow” tools. Levi Usher, the third member of the Louisville lineup on this list, has wow tools. He put up some eye popping numbers at Iowa’s Kirkwood CC, slashing .409/.493/.538 with 36 stolen bases in 53 games, then kept on hitting with a similar .411/.484/.571 line and eleven stolen bases for Louisville in 2020. Together, that makes for one exciting player heading into 2021.

Usher is the prototypical “raw, toolsy athlete.” He has a very loose, athletic left handed swing and a line drive approach that has served him exceptionally well so far, absolutely beating up on weaker opponents throughout his career. Given his strength and operation, you can project some power as well, likely enough for 15-20 home runs a year in the big leagues. He does come with some strikeout concerns, but he’s done so much damage on balls in play that it’s easy to overlook those for now. Then we have the plus to plus-plus speed that has given him 47 stolen bases in 69 games between Kirkwood and Louisville, which will serve him very well on both sides of the ball. Combine “raw and toolsy” with on-base percentages near .500, and you’re in business.

The one main knock on Usher is not really his fault. He didn’t face strong competition in the Iowa JUCO ranks, and while he combined to go 10-22 against Ole Miss and Wake Forest in 2020, there hasn’t been much sample size against legitimate pitching staffs. Over two summers in the Northwoods League, he’s slashed just .261/.337/.373 with a 46/17 strikeout to walk ratio, leading to some questions as to how his approach will play against advanced pitching and how his power will play with wood bats. Still, you can’t deny the production he’s had with metal bats and the tools are outstanding, so another strong season in the Cardinals’ lineup could make him an easy first round pick. Scouts will be watching his run through ACC play very closely in 2021.

10. RHP Jack Perkins, Louisville

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’1″, 200 lbs. Born 12/26/1999. Hometown: Kokomo, IN
2019: 3-0, 4.18 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 37/18 K/BB in 32.1 IP.

Our fourth member of the Louisville program to crack this top ten list, Jack Perkins is somewhat similar to Levi Usher in that he lacks much of a track record. He put up a 4.18 ERA and struck out 37 batters as a freshman reliever in 2019, but he also walked 18 in 32.1 innings and went down with Tommy John surgery in June of that year. After missing the 2020 college season, he got on the mound for 18.1 more innings in summer ball with more of the same – 2.45 ERA, 23/14 K/BB. Now a redshirt sophomore, he heads into 2021 with as much to prove as anybody.

The 6’1″ righty shows electric stuff from the right side. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s and tops out at 97 in relief, while his slider flashes plus and can miss bats in bunches. We also have a curveball and changeup, but those two pitches are well behind the fastball and slider. Perkins gets some deception from a bit of a crossfire deliver, but there is some effort there as well, which is more concerning combined with his surgery. If Perkins wants to start in pro ball, he’ll also have to improve his command considerably, as the jerk in his delivery can cause him to lose his release point.

We’re talking about a high ceiling and a low floor for Perkins, clearly. Tommy John surgery is commonplace these days and he’s fully healthy now, so if he can just get some innings under his belt, it might be all he needs to improve that command and his curve or changeup. Smoothing out his delivery would help as well, as it could be the root of his command problems. There’s a good chance he’s forced to the bullpen, where his fastball/slider combination could really play up, but teams would like to send him out as a starter if possible.

Other ACC Interesting Options

Boston College:

Sal Frelick and Cody Morissette provide the most exciting prospect duo the Eagles have seen in recent memory, but we’re also excited for Friday nights in Chestnut Hill. Mason Pelio is BC’s best pitching prospect since Justin Dunn, having put up a 3.73 ERA and an 81/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings for his career. He lacks the explosive stuff seen in top ten ACC prospects Ryan Cusick and Jack Perkins, but he’s much more pro-ready than either of them. He has a big, durable frame at 6’3″ and has averaged five and a half innings per start, deploying a cutting low 90’s fastball and an above average changeup. His cutter means he has been adept at missing barrels, but the lack of a good breaking ball has limited his bat-missing ability and at this point he projects as a #4 or #5 starter. Improving his breaking ball to at least average would be the biggest thing he could do. With slightly above average command, fine tuning that just a little into a true 55 could take pressure off his breaking ball.

Clemson:

The Tigers didn’t put a single player in the top ten, but that doesn’t mean they’re devoid of draft talent. Davis Sharpe is the ACC’s best two-way prospect, having hit .276/.392/.431 with seven home runs at Clemson while putting up a 3.33 ERA and a 104/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.2 innings on the mound. Though he shows power and patience at the plate, his bat is probably a little light for first base, so his future is likely on the mound. His fastball sits around 90 but can touch 95, and his slider flashes above average to even plus at times. The 6’4″ righty has some effort in his delivery but does a good job of throwing strikes, and could be a breakout candidate for 2021. Neither Carter Raffield nor Mack Anglin have much in the way of track record, but both can hit the mid 90’s with their fastballs and could take big steps forward in 2021. Lastly, Adam Hackenberg was a highly touted name coming out of the Virginia high school ranks, but he’s still looking for a breakout. His cannon arm will help him stick behind the plate, taking pressure off his bat. He’s shown plus raw power in batting practice but it comes at the expense of his hit tool, with an aggressive approach and a lot of swing and miss. Any improvement in his offensive game will make him a priority for area scouts.

Duke:

A year after producing first rounder Bryce Jarvis, the Blue Devils have two names that just missed the top ten. Cooper Stinson is the younger brother of former Blue Devil and current Rays prospect Graeme Stinson, and he has momentum heading into 2021. Stinson finished 2020 with a 0.42 ERA and a 24/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 21.2 innings against a schedule that included Minnesota and Florida State. He sits around 90 with his fastball but tends to pitch above that number more than below, and his quick right arm puts nice angle on the ball. The 6’6″ righty also shows a good slider and a changeup, with his control improving in 2020 as well. Command can still be a bit shaky, but he’s one of the most complete pitchers in the ACC. We also have Ethan Murray, a career .293/.394/.434 hitter in Durham. He’s one of those guys with no standout tool but no weaknesses either, showing great plate discipline and a consistent, line drive approach at the plate. There isn’t much power at this point, but he should produce enough doubles and triples to keep pitchers honest. As with his bat, his feel for the game stands out more than his physical tools on defense, with the polish to handle shortstop but perhaps not the arm strength and athleticism. Sticking there would give him a better chance to play full time, but his most likely role is as a utility infielder who can impact the game in a lot of ways. Joey Loperfido is behind Stinson and Murray on draft boards, showing lots of average tools but having yet to put it together. A likely outfielder who has played almost everywhere, he has some power, some speed, and solid plate discipline, but he’ll need to find a way to impact the game consistently in pro ball.

Florida State:

Robby Martin is easily the best prospect in Tallahassee, but he’s part of one of the most talented outfields in college baseball with Reese Albert and Elijah Cabell. Albert was eligible in 2020 but withdrew from the draft, and now carries a career .270/.381/.491 slash line into 2021. Albert is a pretty basic “college performer” type who has shown some power, the ability to get to it in games, a patient approach, and steady overall performance. With a July birthday, he’s not much older than most first time eligible players, and brings a track record that many cannot match. He’s a bit of a sleeper to become a useful platoon or full time bat down the road. Cabell, meanwhile, was also draft eligible in 2020, but went undrafted despite a hot .263/.488/.649 start to the season. Despite being a class below Albert, he’s actually slightly older, and shows louder tools. Cabell has huge raw power and some surprising speed, but has also struck out in nearly 40% (!) of his plate appearances. Because of this, evaluators have serious questions as to whether he’ll reach that power in pro ball, coming into the 2021 draft with a similar profile to Bobby Dalbec. On the mound, Jack Anderson is a breakout candidate with a low 90’s fastball and a solid breaking ball. To this point, he’s struggled to find innings on that crowded FSU pitching staff.

Georgia Tech:

GT is another school loaded with prospects who just missed the top ten list. Luke Waddell returns a career .308/.410/.409 hitter, an extremely polished bat with great consistency. At a stocky 5’9″, he doesn’t profile for much power, and has just four career home runs for the Yellow Jackets, so the upside is limited. Given that he’ll turn 23 during the 2021 draft, he has a pretty clear high floor, utility profile. He profiles best at second base but can handle shortstop if needed. Brant Hurter is listed at 6’6″, 250 pounds, and was also eligible in 2020. He was dominant as a sophomore in 2019 (2.42 ERA, 58/14 K/BB) but missed 2020 with Tommy John surgery, and is now healthy. Hurter effectively commands a low 90’s fastball and a sharp slider, giving him a chance to start despite turning 23 shortly after the draft. He’s a bit of a sleeper. Luke Bartnicki and Cort Roedig bring more exciting stuff, but both can be enigmatic. Bartnicki was a well-known draft prospect as a high schooler and has shown flashes of dominance in Midtown Atlanta, but hasn’t put it together quite yet. His low 90’s fastball can touch 94-95 without much effort, and his low three quarters arm slot makes him tough on lefties. The 6’3″ lefty also shows a good slider that can elicit chases and miss bats when he’s ahead in the count, but his command has made everything play down so far. Roedig, meanwhile, has an unconventional windup in which he crouches, quickly replaces his feet as fast as he can, then slows up again to deliver the ball. His fastball can touch 97 with high spin rates, and his high spin slider flashes above average as well. To this point, he’s been around the strike zone but everything has been inconsistent, and he might need to settle down just a little bit to take full advantage of his stuff. He profiles as a reliever at this point but if he just calms down a little, he might be able to surprise some people.

Louisville:

The Cardinals put four names in the top ten and we’ve got even more to talk about. Michael Kirian was eligible in 2020 but went undrafted, and now with Reid Detmers and Bobby Miller out of his way, he has a chance to prove himself as a starter. The 6’6″ lefty has been untouchable with a 1.41 ERA and a 53/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 38.1 innings the last two seasons, all in relief. He has a low 90’s fastball that touches 95 as well as a good curveball, and as a starter in 2021 he’ll get to show off his less used cutter and changeup. If he can maintain his velocity in a starting role, he’ll fly up boards, because I always thought the stuff was a little light for relief. Jared Poland can challenge Davis Sharpe as the best two-way prospect in the ACC, though I still prefer Sharpe. Poland hasn’t performed much at the plate or on the mound yet for Louisville, showing a low 90’s fastball and a nice changeup on the mound combined with a good hit tool at the plate. He looked good on the Cape as a pitcher, and refining his breaking ball a little could make him a legitimate #3/#4 starter prospect. At the plate, he has started to tap some power and needs to continue that to profile as more than a utility infielder. We also have Glenn Albanese, a pure relief prospect with a mid 90’s fastball and a curveball that flashes plus. He struck out 18 of the 37 batters he faced in 2020 and more of the same could make him one of the top relief names in the draft.

Miami:

The Hurricanes pulled in a fantastic incoming recruiting class, giving Adrian Del Castillo lots of high octane arms to work with. One of those is JUCO transfer Jake Smith, who had a 1.59 ERA and a 59/8 strikeout to walk ratio at State College of Florida last year. The 6’5″ righty is a breakout candidate on the back of a plus fastball that can hit 97 with solid command. He’ll need to refine his offspeed pitches a bit more but could fly up boards if he does. 6’1″ lefty JP Gates is another breakout candidate who should see more innings in 2021, currently showing an above average fastball/slider combination in relief. Any uptick in velocity should make him a legitimate late inning weapon. It’s a relief projection on the surface, but with the whole weekend rotation gone from last year, he could have a chance to start, though he’ll need to refine his changeup considerably. Lastly, Alex Toral‘s name has been thrown around for a while now, and he blasted 24 home runs in 61 games in 2019. Obviously, he’s a power hitter, and he also shows nice patience at the plate that should help him tap it in pro ball. The swing is a bit grooved and gives me some Matt Adams vibes.

North Carolina:

By far, UNC’s best draft prospect is infielder Danny Serretti. The New Jersey native will get plenty of comps to crosstown rival Ethan Murray over at Duke, showing a steady profile rather than a toolsy one. He doesn’t have much power in his 6’1″ frame but did hit 18 doubles as a freshman, showing a line drive bat and a knack for getting on base. He has a chance to stick at shortstop, which will make his bat more attractive, but he didn’t show much impact on the Cape in 2019. Scouts will be looking for more gap power to project more impact in pro ball. We also have the unproven Joe Charles, who has touched 97 with his fastball but is otherwise a one tool player. He’ll need significant refinement in his command and added power to his slurvy breaking balls, which do have potential.

North Carolina State:

The Wolfpack get back Tyler McDonough, who was undrafted in 2020 despite a career .327/.407/.473 line. He’s a college performer with strong plate discipline and some ambush power, a bit of a sleeper given his 5’10” frame. He’ll be 22 before draft day but could quietly hit his way up the ranks. Jose Torres is the Pack’s top draft prospect, a glove-first shortstop who can get to any ball he wants. His bat was considered very light coming out of high school near Baltimore, but he burst onto the scene with a .333/.369/.533 line and three home runs as a freshman in 2020. Draft eligible with a 1999 birthday, he’s very skinny at six feet tall but could grow into some power if he starts generating more leverage with his swing. His plate discipline is very raw at this point, so cleaning it up will be a big priority for 2021, but that glove buys his bat plenty of slack and if he continues the hot hitting he showed in 2020, look out.

Virginia:

Joining Zack Gelof in that strong UVA lineup will be Nic Kent, who just missed the top ten list. Kent has hit everywhere he’s gone, including .335/.426/.450 in Charlottesville and .373/.420/.464 in the Northwoods League. He has a simple, line drive swing that produces hard contact to all fields, and he rarely swings and misses. That hit tool is clearly his best attribute, but if he can a) tap some more power from his 6’2″ frame or b) prove he can stick at shortstop, he has first round aspirations. Andrew Abbott is one of the top returning undrafted arms, and looks to be one of the top relievers in the class. He’s a smaller lefty at 6′, but makes up for it with a bulldog mentality on the mound and a strong fastball/curveball combination. The fastball sits in the low 90’s, nothing crazy, but the curveball is a true weapon and he goes right after hitters. We also have Mike Vasil, who was a top draft prospect coming out of the Boston area high school ranks in 2018, but he has not developed as expected. After hitting 96 in high school, he’s been closer to 90 in college and dips below that number fairly often. His breaking balls haven’t really come along and lack finish to this point, but his changeup his lone above average pitch. Vasil has a great body at 6’4″ and plenty of arm strength, so scouts will be watching closely to see if he can regain that old form. The talent is absolutely there and if he can add a tick or two back to his fastball, he might have some similarities to last year’s Tommy Mace.

Wake Forest:

The Demon Deacons bring a couple of big bats back who were draft eligible last year. Bobby Seymour hit .377/.439/.576 as a sophomore in 2019, but otherwise has been more solid than great, which isn’t quite enough for a first baseman. He’ll look to tap more power from his big 6’4″, 250 pound frame. Meanwhile, Chris Lanzilli has a fairly similar profile, having hit .347/.409/.620 in a big sophomore season in 2019 with a career .314/.394/.594 line and 31 home runs. He’s a big power bat, more so than Seymour, but scouts see him more as a college performer than a pro masher. He’s plenty strong enough to project for above average pop, but he’s not quite as explosive as some of the other power hitters in this class and will be 23 on draft day.