OF Austin Beck (North Davidson HS, NC): 5'11", 175 lbs, born 11/21/1998.
Overall
Hit: 50. Power: 60. Run: 60. Throw: 60. Field: 55.
Among potential top ten picks, Austin Beck carries as much risk as anybody. However, his upside is also as high as anybody, so he absolutely should not be written off because of the risk. With his big time power, he could be a future star or even superstar at the plate. He missed the summer showcase circuit because of a torn ACL, so he was almost forgotten and was left off most top draft prospect lists at the beginning of the spring. However, he has jumped back in a big way, rising to #4 (then falling to #9) on Baseball America's list and to #9 on MLB.com's list after being left off the preseason lists for both. At the time I'm writing this, he sits at #8 on my list. Beck will likely be selected within the top ten picks, with a small chance of even cracking the top five.
Strengths
Austin Beck can hit. His explosive bat speed generates plus power to all fields from the right side, and it should play up as he rises through the ranks. While his bat path isn't perfect, he his bat speed plays up as well because of the whipping action he generates from his strong wrists. He has a good eye at the plate, too, though it's not as advanced as his power. In the outfield, he is a solid athlete who has a real shot at sticking in center field, and even if he moves to right, his plus arm will help him be a plus defender overall. He's an exciting prospect, one who reminds me a bit of Kyle Lewis from last year's draft, and he is one of those "no ceiling" prospects that tend to hang around the top the draft.
Weaknesses
With all that upside often comes risk, and that is present with Beck. Because he didn't get a chance to play the summer showcase circuit (through no fault of his own), he hasn't proven to scouts that he can handle even somewhat advanced competition. Instead, scouts have had to watch him play against his regular high school competition in central North Carolina, which isn't a bad region for baseball but certainly isn't south Florida, Los Angeles, Atlanta, or Houston. He's all projection, having proven nothing concrete. Though it's not quite "alarming," there is a decent amount of swing and miss in his game even at his current competition level. Swing and miss is one aspect of a player's game that tends to grow exponentially as he moves up in competition if no adjustments are made, so a team drafting him will have to be confident in their ability to streamline his swing without sacrificing power. He's also on the shorter side at 5'11", so despite his big bat speed, he likely won't hit more than 25-30 home runs per year even as a best case scenario. The two key words with Beck are risk and upside, with the former likely knocking him out of the top five but the latter making it hard to see him falling out of the top ten or twelve.
Tuesday, May 23, 2017
Monday, May 22, 2017
Tracking Awards: 5/22
AL MVP: Mike Trout (LAA): 14 HR, 34 RBI, .350 AVG, 9 SB, 222 wRC+. Last week: Trout.
Last week, Trout and Judge were neck and neck for this award, and while Judge blasted a pair of home runs to give himself sole possession of the MLB lead at 15, Trout has managed to put some daylight between himself and the rookie. He homered in four straight games from May 12th to May 15th, then added home runs on May 17th and May 21st. Riding a nine game on-base streak, Trout has somehow managed to make his May (.317/.508/.878) better than his April (.364/.443/.707), and he now leads the MLB in wRC+ (222) and the AL in wOBA (.487). His 3.1 fWAR puts him well ahead of second place Freddie Freeman (2.6), making MLB's only three win player still less than a third of the way through the season. Steamer now projects Trout to finish the season with a .320/.440/.632 slash line, which would rank as the best of his career, even with some regression through the rest of the season.
NL MVP: Freddie Freeman (ATL): 14 HR, 25 RBI, .341 AVG, 4 SB, 204 wRC+. Last week: Bryce Harper.
Unfortunately, Freeman won't hang onto this spot for long after an Aaron Loup fastball broke his left wrist, likely holding him out for ten weeks. For now, though, his numbers are the best in the National League. He's leading it with 14 home runs, as well as with his 204 wRC+, 2.6 fWAR, and .489 wOBA, the latter of which actually leads the MLB. Freeman was hot, too, when he got hurt, having homered in his last two games and having collected at least two hits in three of his past four games. His .341/.461/.748 slash line is pretty mighty, and the Braves are certainly going to miss it while he recovers. They added Matt Adams (.292/.340/.396) in a trade in response, but he's no MVP.
AL Cy Young: Dallas Keuchel (HOU): 7-0, 1.84 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 54/14 K/BB. Last week: Jason Vargas.
Here we have another injured player, though unlike Freeman, Keuchel is only expected to miss one start with a pinched nerve in his neck. After respective tough starts for Ervin Santana and Jason Vargas the week they each claimed this spot, Keuchel will be our third AL Cy Young in three weeks. Through nine starts, Keuchel is unbeaten (for what it's worth) with a 0.86 WHIP and an MLB-leading 1.84 ERA. Aside from one tough start where Astros manager A.J. Hinch left him in way too long, Keuchel has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his other eight starts. Leave out that eight inning, five run performance in Los Angeles on May 5th (in which he had allowed just two runs in the first eight innings before allowing three more in the ninth), and Keuchel's ERA and WHIP drop to 1.29 and 0.83, respectively. The Houston ace has done this by putting up a wicked, MLB-leading 2.97 ground out to air out ratio, taking advantage of the fact that ground balls are a pitcher's friend and limiting balls in the air. This has led opponents to bat just .217 on balls in play against him, and while that may be due for some regression, I don't expect it to float all the way up to his career mark of .294 as BABIP's tend to do. After a tough 2016 (4.55 ERA, 1.29 WHIP), Keuchel is pitching better than ever, including his 2015 AL Cy Young season.
NL Cy Young Award: Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 7-2, 2.15 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 62/8 K/BB. Last week: Kershaw.
Last week, I mentioned that partially because he had made two starts at Coors Field already, Kershaw's 2.43 ERA and 0.95 WHIP were his worst since 2012. He must have read this, because in his next start, on May 17th, he shut down the Giants over seven innings, allowing no runs on three hits and no walks while striking out five. His ERA and WHIP dropped to 2.15 and 0.89, respectively, but that 2.15 ERA is still his worst since 2012 and the 0.89 WHIP is his worst since 2013. Can you believe this guy? The two greatest players of our generation currently play in Los Angeles, with Mike Trout tearing it up for the Angels and Clayton Kershaw shutting it down for the Dodgers.
AL Rookie of the Year: Aaron Judge (NYY): 15 HR, 30 RBI, .321 AVG, 200 wRC+. Last week: Aaron Judge.
Something tells me the Yankees' 25 year old right fielder isn't letting go of this spot any time soon. He is leading the majors with his 15 home runs, and 39 games into his season, he is still producing twice the offense as the average player, as evidenced by his 200 wRC+. After slashing what was thought to be an unsustainable .303/.411/.750 in April, he has been just about as good in May, slashing .344/.432/.656. His .390 BABIP is pretty inflated, so expect some regression, but we've thought that was due for a while and it hasn't happened yet. For now, Judge can just keep blasting home runs and getting on base.
NL Rookie of the Year: Kyle Freeland (COL): 5-2, 3.31 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 32/24 K/BB. Last week: Antonio Senzatela.
Back to back tough starts have dropped Antonio Senzatela from this spot, but another Rockies' rookie starter has jumped in to scoop it up before Dodgers rookie Cody Bellinger could. Kyle Freeland has had all the same disadvantages as Senzatela by pitching in Coors Field, but it hasn't bothered him yet, as he has a 3.31 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP through nine starts. That gets even better when you consider his 3.80 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in four home starts, meaning he has a 2.89 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in five starts in more pitcher-friendly locations. Despite pitching in Coors, he actually has only allowed more than three earned runs in one of his nine starts. Take out the second MLB start of his career on April 12th in Coors Field, when he allowed six runs against the Padres, and he has 2.49 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP over eight starts, five on the road and three at Coors. While Freeland needs to get his walk rate down (10.9% of the batters he's faced so far, or 24 out of 221), his secret to success has been the same as Dallas Keuchel's, as his 2.44 ground out to air out ratio leads the NL. Considering that he pitches in Coors Field (how many times can I mention that in one paragraph?), this number is even more important to him than Keuchel's is to himself.
Minor League Watch: Kolby Allard (ATL AA): 4-1, 1.65 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 41/13 K/BB. Last week: Taylor Gushue.
The Braves selected Allard with the 14th overall pick in the 2015 draft out of high school in California, but had he been healthy, he could have easily gone in the top ten picks and possibly within the top five. He's showing why this year, dominating the AA Southern League at just 19 years old. Through nine starts, the teenager has a 1.65 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 41/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 49 innings, forcing the Braves to at least consider promoting him to AAA Gwinnett. Down in Mississippi, he has allowed more than two runs in a start just once, as he allowed three in his most recent outing on May 19th. His most impressive start came on May 4th in Birmingham, when he tossed six shutout innings on three hits and no walks, striking out 11 Barons. Right now it's a four way race to see who will be the first player younger than me to break into the major leagues, with Allard, his AA teammate Mike Soroka (3.14 ERA, 1.02 WHIP), another Braves prospect in Ozzie Albies (.259/.308/.388 at AAA Gwinnett), and Padres prospect Luis Urias (.344/.429/.485 at AA San Antonio) making their cases.
Sunday, May 21, 2017
2017 Draft Preview: Seth Romero
RHP Seth Romero (formerly University of Houston): 6'3", 240 lbs, born 4/19/1996.
Overview
Fastball: 60. Slider: 60. Changeup: 55. Control: 50.
Here we are, looking at the biggest wild card in the draft. Seth Romero is really, really good. So good, in fact, that on talent alone, he would be a near-lock for the first half of the first round, possibly even a top ten pick. However, he has been suspended from the University of Houston baseball team twice, and in May, he was permanently expelled from the program after what was reportedly a fight with a teammate, leaving his draft status as up in the air as any player this year. When he's on the mound, Romero looks like a safe bet to start in the major leagues, with some top of the rotation upside, so there's pretty much no telling where he'll end up in this year's draft. He could still be a top 20 pick, or he could fall out of the top 40 or so. We'll just have to wait and see.
Strengths
Romero has a classic starting pitchers' profile; he throws in the low to mid 90's with a repeatable delivery, and his low to mid 80's slider is a devastating secondary. He's even coming along with a solid changeup that generates its fair share of whiffs, giving him a major league arsenal that won't take much developing. This has been very apparent on the mound at Houston, where he finished his career with a 2.43 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 290/70 strikeout to walk ratio over 226.1 innings. He struck out nearly two batters per inning in 2017, racking up 85 in just 48.2 innings before his expulsion. He was also said to be in better physical shape this year. If he can keep himself on the mound and out of trouble, Romero is a potential frontline, workhorse starter.
Weaknesses
Oh boy. Here we go. Romero was suspended from the Houston Cougars baseball team as a sophomore last year for "conduct detrimental to the team," and was suspended again this year for reportedly posing for a picture with a bong in full uniform. Not long after he returned from that suspension, he reportedly got into a physical exchange with a teammate, and the athletics department decided it had had enough with him no matter his talent, expelling him from the program. This is especially disappointing because of optimistic fall reports. After two years of an "indifferent approach to conditioning," he was said to have come to campus for his junior year in much better shape and "a model citizen." Obviously, he still has a lot of work to do off the field. This is one name certainly worth watching on draft day.
Overview
Fastball: 60. Slider: 60. Changeup: 55. Control: 50.
Here we are, looking at the biggest wild card in the draft. Seth Romero is really, really good. So good, in fact, that on talent alone, he would be a near-lock for the first half of the first round, possibly even a top ten pick. However, he has been suspended from the University of Houston baseball team twice, and in May, he was permanently expelled from the program after what was reportedly a fight with a teammate, leaving his draft status as up in the air as any player this year. When he's on the mound, Romero looks like a safe bet to start in the major leagues, with some top of the rotation upside, so there's pretty much no telling where he'll end up in this year's draft. He could still be a top 20 pick, or he could fall out of the top 40 or so. We'll just have to wait and see.
Strengths
Romero has a classic starting pitchers' profile; he throws in the low to mid 90's with a repeatable delivery, and his low to mid 80's slider is a devastating secondary. He's even coming along with a solid changeup that generates its fair share of whiffs, giving him a major league arsenal that won't take much developing. This has been very apparent on the mound at Houston, where he finished his career with a 2.43 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 290/70 strikeout to walk ratio over 226.1 innings. He struck out nearly two batters per inning in 2017, racking up 85 in just 48.2 innings before his expulsion. He was also said to be in better physical shape this year. If he can keep himself on the mound and out of trouble, Romero is a potential frontline, workhorse starter.
Weaknesses
Oh boy. Here we go. Romero was suspended from the Houston Cougars baseball team as a sophomore last year for "conduct detrimental to the team," and was suspended again this year for reportedly posing for a picture with a bong in full uniform. Not long after he returned from that suspension, he reportedly got into a physical exchange with a teammate, and the athletics department decided it had had enough with him no matter his talent, expelling him from the program. This is especially disappointing because of optimistic fall reports. After two years of an "indifferent approach to conditioning," he was said to have come to campus for his junior year in much better shape and "a model citizen." Obviously, he still has a lot of work to do off the field. This is one name certainly worth watching on draft day.
Saturday, May 20, 2017
2017 Draft Preview: Alex Lange
RHP Alex Lange (Louisiana State): 6'4", 200 lbs, born 10/2/1995.
Overview
Fastball: 60. Curveball: 65. Changeup: 50. Control: 45.
Among collegiate likely first rounders, Alex Lange is one of the bigger wild cards. He was one of the most dominant freshmen in the country in 2015 (1.97 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 131/46 K/BB), but was very inconsistent as a sophomore in 2016 (3.79 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 125/49 K/BB). This year has been a mix of both; he's flashed dominance, but has had a few starts that set him back, so far compiling a 2.79 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 111/33 K/BB. When he's on, he flashes #2 starter potential, but when he's not, he reminds you of a #5 starter or even a long reliever. Because he has higher upside on the mound than other college arms like Brendan McKay, Griffin Canning, or David Peterson, he could go pretty much anywhere back half of the first round, and could easily be taken in the top 20 picks.
Strengths
Lange already has two big league pitches in a low to mid 90's fastball and a power curve that could be the best in this draft class. While his changeup is not major league ready, it is coming along nicely with good depth and will likely be a solid contrast for his fastball at the big league level. He has a deceptive delivery that allows his arsenal to play up, and his overall profile screams mid-rotation starter.
Weaknesses
Much of Lange's inconsistencies are directly derived from his spotty command. The command troubles, in turn, derive from his delivery. The delivery features an outward leg kick as well as extension of the glove hand towards third base before he attempts to bring everything back on line to the plate. When he can get everything back on line, it creates deception and can throw off opposing hitters. However, he often struggles to corral all of his flying limbs, and when they don't stay on line, his command suffers. The fastball/curve combo is deadly, but if he can't command it, it's worthless, so his success will be tied to his delivery going forward. Best case scenario, if he gets consistent with his delivery and further develops his changeup, he is a #2 starter. He has significant work to do to get there, but I am an optimist.
Overview
Fastball: 60. Curveball: 65. Changeup: 50. Control: 45.
Among collegiate likely first rounders, Alex Lange is one of the bigger wild cards. He was one of the most dominant freshmen in the country in 2015 (1.97 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 131/46 K/BB), but was very inconsistent as a sophomore in 2016 (3.79 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 125/49 K/BB). This year has been a mix of both; he's flashed dominance, but has had a few starts that set him back, so far compiling a 2.79 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 111/33 K/BB. When he's on, he flashes #2 starter potential, but when he's not, he reminds you of a #5 starter or even a long reliever. Because he has higher upside on the mound than other college arms like Brendan McKay, Griffin Canning, or David Peterson, he could go pretty much anywhere back half of the first round, and could easily be taken in the top 20 picks.
Strengths
Lange already has two big league pitches in a low to mid 90's fastball and a power curve that could be the best in this draft class. While his changeup is not major league ready, it is coming along nicely with good depth and will likely be a solid contrast for his fastball at the big league level. He has a deceptive delivery that allows his arsenal to play up, and his overall profile screams mid-rotation starter.
Weaknesses
Much of Lange's inconsistencies are directly derived from his spotty command. The command troubles, in turn, derive from his delivery. The delivery features an outward leg kick as well as extension of the glove hand towards third base before he attempts to bring everything back on line to the plate. When he can get everything back on line, it creates deception and can throw off opposing hitters. However, he often struggles to corral all of his flying limbs, and when they don't stay on line, his command suffers. The fastball/curve combo is deadly, but if he can't command it, it's worthless, so his success will be tied to his delivery going forward. Best case scenario, if he gets consistent with his delivery and further develops his changeup, he is a #2 starter. He has significant work to do to get there, but I am an optimist.
Wednesday, May 17, 2017
2017 Draft Preview: Hunter Greene
RHP/SS Hunter Greene (Notre Dame HS, CA): 6'3", 195 lbs, born 8/6/1999).
Overview
Fastball: 70. Slider: 55. Changeup: 50. Control: 50.
If you follow the draft at all, you are no doubt very familiar with the Southern California right hander. If you're a casual baseball fan, you should probably take notice of Greene, especially if you have any affinity for the Minnesota Twins or Cincinnati Reds. He's actually good enough to be a first round pick as a shortstop, with his big time power and all around game, but he's simply too good of a pitcher to pass up. In fact, he has a very good chance of becoming the first high school right handed pitcher in history to go first overall. Let's delve into what scouts are calling one of the greatest high school RHP's of all time.
Strengths
Greene throws heat. His fastball has reportedly touched 102 MPH, and he comfortably sits in the upper 90's with surprisingly little effort. This is due to his plus-plus athleticism, which should a) help him remain a starter and b) help him avoid injuries. Greene also has a classic starter's frame at 6'3" and 195 pounds, with room to add strength. Yet another plus on his resume is the fact that he's very young for the class, not turning 18 until August, making him more than a year younger than other prep prospects such as Bubba Thompson, Trevor Rogers, Brady McConnell, Jeter Downs, and Cole Brannen. Greene also earns high marks for his makeup, as he excels in the classroom and is a team player.
Weaknesses
As great as Greene is, he is not a generational prospect like Bryce Harper or Ken Griffey Jr, as he is not without his flaws. Greene's secondaries aren't bad, per se, but they aren't the true plus pitches you would hope to see from a first overall pick. At this point, his arsenal is a bit in flux. You could argue that he throws two distinct breaking balls, a curveball and a slider, or you could argue that what you see is just his slider getting slurvy and turning into a curve when he doesn't grip/release it right. Either way, when he's throwing it right, the slider shows flashes of being a plus pitch, with its hard diving action. If he can learn to manipulate his breaking ball and control the variations in its shape, it could turn out to be an excellent weapon. His changeup is also behind his slider and well behind his fastball, but that is normal for high schoolers and it has the makings of being a future major league pitch. He also voluntarily shut himself down from pitching this spring to protect both his arm and his draft stock, something teams aren't overly thrilled about.
Twins, Reds or Padres?
There is basically zero chance Greene falls past the Padres at #3, so lets analyze his chances of going to each team. With the highest upside in the draft, he certainly has a chance of ending up in Minnesota, though rumor has it that they're leaning towards the other top player in this draft, Louisville two-way star Brendan McKay. The Reds pick at #2, and they represent his most likely destination in my opinion, though it's an ill-kept secret that Greene wants to fall to the Padres at #3 so he can stay close to home. It is even rumored that part of the reason he was shut down from pitching was to manipulate his draft stock in such a way that the Twins and Reds both bypassed him. As much as we hope he gets what he wants and goes to a local team, his upside may (and will likely be) too much for the Reds (or even Twins) to pass up, though the Padres would gladly snatch him with the third pick if he were available.
Overview
Fastball: 70. Slider: 55. Changeup: 50. Control: 50.
If you follow the draft at all, you are no doubt very familiar with the Southern California right hander. If you're a casual baseball fan, you should probably take notice of Greene, especially if you have any affinity for the Minnesota Twins or Cincinnati Reds. He's actually good enough to be a first round pick as a shortstop, with his big time power and all around game, but he's simply too good of a pitcher to pass up. In fact, he has a very good chance of becoming the first high school right handed pitcher in history to go first overall. Let's delve into what scouts are calling one of the greatest high school RHP's of all time.
Strengths
Greene throws heat. His fastball has reportedly touched 102 MPH, and he comfortably sits in the upper 90's with surprisingly little effort. This is due to his plus-plus athleticism, which should a) help him remain a starter and b) help him avoid injuries. Greene also has a classic starter's frame at 6'3" and 195 pounds, with room to add strength. Yet another plus on his resume is the fact that he's very young for the class, not turning 18 until August, making him more than a year younger than other prep prospects such as Bubba Thompson, Trevor Rogers, Brady McConnell, Jeter Downs, and Cole Brannen. Greene also earns high marks for his makeup, as he excels in the classroom and is a team player.
Weaknesses
As great as Greene is, he is not a generational prospect like Bryce Harper or Ken Griffey Jr, as he is not without his flaws. Greene's secondaries aren't bad, per se, but they aren't the true plus pitches you would hope to see from a first overall pick. At this point, his arsenal is a bit in flux. You could argue that he throws two distinct breaking balls, a curveball and a slider, or you could argue that what you see is just his slider getting slurvy and turning into a curve when he doesn't grip/release it right. Either way, when he's throwing it right, the slider shows flashes of being a plus pitch, with its hard diving action. If he can learn to manipulate his breaking ball and control the variations in its shape, it could turn out to be an excellent weapon. His changeup is also behind his slider and well behind his fastball, but that is normal for high schoolers and it has the makings of being a future major league pitch. He also voluntarily shut himself down from pitching this spring to protect both his arm and his draft stock, something teams aren't overly thrilled about.
Twins, Reds or Padres?
There is basically zero chance Greene falls past the Padres at #3, so lets analyze his chances of going to each team. With the highest upside in the draft, he certainly has a chance of ending up in Minnesota, though rumor has it that they're leaning towards the other top player in this draft, Louisville two-way star Brendan McKay. The Reds pick at #2, and they represent his most likely destination in my opinion, though it's an ill-kept secret that Greene wants to fall to the Padres at #3 so he can stay close to home. It is even rumored that part of the reason he was shut down from pitching was to manipulate his draft stock in such a way that the Twins and Reds both bypassed him. As much as we hope he gets what he wants and goes to a local team, his upside may (and will likely be) too much for the Reds (or even Twins) to pass up, though the Padres would gladly snatch him with the third pick if he were available.
Monday, May 15, 2017
2017 Draft Preview: Brian Miller
CF Brian Miller (University of North Carolina): 6', 185 lbs, born 8/20/1995.
Overview
Hit: 55. Power: 40. Run: 60. Throw: 45. Field: 55.
Miller has an interesting profile, as he has a long, linear swing with good bat speed, but he is much more of a contact/speed guy than a power hitter. He is a solid defender that should be able to stick in center field, and his great plate discipline will help carry his bat, which is otherwise unremarkable. He strikes me as a similar player to UVA's Adam Haseley, though Haseley has more power and a stronger arm and Miller is faster. Both are left handed center fielders who employ a leg kick before their swing, but neither gains ground with it and instead, both employ a linear swing path. Haseley is clearly the better option to me, but Miller is a player in the same mold. Miller likely will not break into the first round unless a team wants to save money, so he should be pegged for somewhere in the second round.
Strengths
Miller has very good control of the strike zone and always had, maintaining a career 75/81 strikeout to walk ratio in his three years at UNC (11.3% strikeout rate, 12.2% walk rate). He has 28 walks this season (11.7%), despite his plus speed and the fact that he bats ahead of likely first rounder Logan Warmoth. Miller always made pitchers pay for their walks, stealing 50 bases in 61 attempts for his career (82%), including 19 in 23 attempts this season (82.6%). Though he lacks power, his big bat speed and leg kick could bode well for him if he adds loft to his swing.
Weaknesses
Miller does lack power at this point, and even if he does add loft to his swing as I stated in the strengths section, it will never be more than average power due to his wiry build that is much better suited for speed. Though he did bat .327 with 15 stolen bases on the Cape this summer, his .369 on-base percentage and .060 ISO were uninspiring, making him more likely than Warmoth to end up a utility man. He's a guy who if developed right could slash .300/.360/.420 with speed in the majors, but there's a good chance he never hits enough to make a significant impact. That is not a first round profile, but in the second round, it could fit the bill.
Overview
Hit: 55. Power: 40. Run: 60. Throw: 45. Field: 55.
Miller has an interesting profile, as he has a long, linear swing with good bat speed, but he is much more of a contact/speed guy than a power hitter. He is a solid defender that should be able to stick in center field, and his great plate discipline will help carry his bat, which is otherwise unremarkable. He strikes me as a similar player to UVA's Adam Haseley, though Haseley has more power and a stronger arm and Miller is faster. Both are left handed center fielders who employ a leg kick before their swing, but neither gains ground with it and instead, both employ a linear swing path. Haseley is clearly the better option to me, but Miller is a player in the same mold. Miller likely will not break into the first round unless a team wants to save money, so he should be pegged for somewhere in the second round.
Strengths
Miller has very good control of the strike zone and always had, maintaining a career 75/81 strikeout to walk ratio in his three years at UNC (11.3% strikeout rate, 12.2% walk rate). He has 28 walks this season (11.7%), despite his plus speed and the fact that he bats ahead of likely first rounder Logan Warmoth. Miller always made pitchers pay for their walks, stealing 50 bases in 61 attempts for his career (82%), including 19 in 23 attempts this season (82.6%). Though he lacks power, his big bat speed and leg kick could bode well for him if he adds loft to his swing.
Weaknesses
Miller does lack power at this point, and even if he does add loft to his swing as I stated in the strengths section, it will never be more than average power due to his wiry build that is much better suited for speed. Though he did bat .327 with 15 stolen bases on the Cape this summer, his .369 on-base percentage and .060 ISO were uninspiring, making him more likely than Warmoth to end up a utility man. He's a guy who if developed right could slash .300/.360/.420 with speed in the majors, but there's a good chance he never hits enough to make a significant impact. That is not a first round profile, but in the second round, it could fit the bill.
2017 Draft Preview: Logan Warmoth
SS Logan Warmoth (University of North Carolina): 6', 190 lbs, born 9/6/1995
Overview
Hit: 55. Power: 45. Run: 55. Throw: 50. Field: 50.
Nothing stands out about Warmoth, but he has no glaring weaknesses, either. The UNC shortstop played well on the Cape (.270/.330/.450 in 111 PA) and that has carried over into this season (.330/.408/.537 in 233 PA as of May 15th). He gets on base, he has a little pop, he can run, and he can play the middle infield, making his most likely outcome something between a solid utility man and a decent starting second baseman or shortstop. In a class very short on college bats, that's a nice find, and Warmoth will likely hear his name be called somewhere in the back half of the first round or in the supplemental/competitive balance rounds, putting his approximate range between pick 20 and pick 35.
Strengths
As I said earlier, there are no standout strengths for Warmoth, but his biggest strength is a lack of weaknesses. He has a .408 on-base percentage so far in 2017, and his 25 extra base hits (15 doubles, 3 triples, 7 home runs) have lead to a career best .207 ISO. He has 24 walks for a solid 10.3% rate, and he has stolen 17 bases in 20 tries, good for an 85% success rate. He does a good job of transferring his weight in his swing and already has some loft, and with his track record in both the Cape Cod League and the ACC, he has a high floor. If he doesn't stick at shortstop defensively, he can still be a solid second baseman.
Weaknesses
Warmoth doesn't have a standout tool, so he'll have to make sure nothing slumps, or he can get forgotten. If any of his tools don't play up, he could find himself as a utility man. All of his tools look like they will, but he doesn't have much of a margin for error. Though his 10.3% walk rate has been solid this year, I would like to have seen fewer strikeouts, as his 32 whiffs give him a 13.7% rate. He also struck out three times in the game I saw him in, all swinging, and looked lost at the plate before finding himself against Virginia Tech's weak bullpen.
Overview
Hit: 55. Power: 45. Run: 55. Throw: 50. Field: 50.
Nothing stands out about Warmoth, but he has no glaring weaknesses, either. The UNC shortstop played well on the Cape (.270/.330/.450 in 111 PA) and that has carried over into this season (.330/.408/.537 in 233 PA as of May 15th). He gets on base, he has a little pop, he can run, and he can play the middle infield, making his most likely outcome something between a solid utility man and a decent starting second baseman or shortstop. In a class very short on college bats, that's a nice find, and Warmoth will likely hear his name be called somewhere in the back half of the first round or in the supplemental/competitive balance rounds, putting his approximate range between pick 20 and pick 35.
Strengths
As I said earlier, there are no standout strengths for Warmoth, but his biggest strength is a lack of weaknesses. He has a .408 on-base percentage so far in 2017, and his 25 extra base hits (15 doubles, 3 triples, 7 home runs) have lead to a career best .207 ISO. He has 24 walks for a solid 10.3% rate, and he has stolen 17 bases in 20 tries, good for an 85% success rate. He does a good job of transferring his weight in his swing and already has some loft, and with his track record in both the Cape Cod League and the ACC, he has a high floor. If he doesn't stick at shortstop defensively, he can still be a solid second baseman.
Weaknesses
Warmoth doesn't have a standout tool, so he'll have to make sure nothing slumps, or he can get forgotten. If any of his tools don't play up, he could find himself as a utility man. All of his tools look like they will, but he doesn't have much of a margin for error. Though his 10.3% walk rate has been solid this year, I would like to have seen fewer strikeouts, as his 32 whiffs give him a 13.7% rate. He also struck out three times in the game I saw him in, all swinging, and looked lost at the plate before finding himself against Virginia Tech's weak bullpen.
Sunday, May 14, 2017
2017 Draft Preview: J.B. Bukauskas
RHP J.B. Bukauskas (University of North Carolina): 6', 195 lbs, born 10/11/1996
Overview
Fastball: 65. Slider: 60. Changeup: 50. Control: 50.
I got the chance to see Bukauskas pitch against Virginia Tech on May 13th, though it ended up being his worst start of the season as he walked five batters and failed to get out of the fourth inning. Still, the UNC ace is a very important pitcher to watch. Though he figured to go as high as the first round in high school after reclassifying and "skipping" his junior season in 2014 (when I actually had the opportunity to play against him), he asked teams not to draft him and ultimately ended up at UNC. After three years in which he has improved each season, he's a likely top ten pick with a blazing fastball, a wicked slider, and a track record of missing bats in college, though numerous questions abound.
Strengths
Bukauskas can straight up bring the head. He throws in the mid 90's, and that fastball is no straight offering. It has run and sink, making it a true plus pitch. His hard, mid 80's slider is another plus pitch, generating consistent swings and misses with its hard bite down away from right handers/down into left handers. With two plus pitches right now, he already has the floor of a high-leverage reliever (barring injury, of course), but he can hold his velocity into the late innings and he has every chance to start. He also has an emerging changeup that should be a useful pitch down the road. He has been compared to fellow undersized right hander Sonny Gray, who was drafted 18th overall by the A's out of Vanderbilt in 2011 and has been very effective when healthy. The A's pick sixth overall this year, and many mock drafts have had the A's picking the UNC right hander.
Weaknesses
Bukauskas can be inconsistent with his command, which hurt his chances to start. Also hurting his starting chances are his height and delivery. Bukauskas stands at six feet tall, which is certainly on the shorter side for a major league starting pitcher. He also doesn't have the smoothest delivery, as it features a short arm path and a lot of effort. Combine that with him being a smaller guy, and teams have very real concerns about his ability to start.
5/13/17 Report
@Virginia Tech: 3.1 IP, 4 R (3 ER), 6 H, 5 BB, 2 K's
As I stated in the overview paragraph, I did get the opportunity to watch Bukauskas pitch against a quietly good Virginia Tech offense on May 13th, and I have a nasty sunburn to show for it. He sat 93-95 throughout the game, touching 96 three times. He is usually a touch faster, but he did not have his best stuff on Saturday. He particularly struggled in commanding his slider, which he threw quite often. Sitting 84-87, it had the sharp bite as advertised and generated plenty of swings and misses, but Bukauskas missed his spots by a wide margin as often as he hit them. When it was placed at the knees, it was pretty much untouchable. However, he threw it in the dirt numerous times, missed wide, missed in, missed everywhere but up, often falling behind in counts and allowing runners to advance on wild pitches. Fortunately, he rarely missed up, which is the only time his slider actually flattened out and became hittable. Still, Hokie hitters were able to sit on his fastball, knowing that his slider would probably miss or even if it didn't, it was un-hittable and therefore not worth swinging at. By sitting on his fastball, they were able to square it up more than you'd expect, with senior shortstop Ryan Tufts blasting a 94 MPH offering over the left field stands and redshirt junior right fielder Tom Stoffel knocking a pair of doubles. I guess it would be important to note that Virginia Tech's baseball field is more than 2000 feet above sea level, but that is still nowhere near Coors Field in terms of altitude. I actually saw Bukauskas throw his changeup a couple of times while warming up between innings, and it looked pretty good, but I was surprised not to see him use it during the game, especially with his slider being all over the place. He obviously needs to build up his confidence in the pitch before it becomes a workable major league pitch.
Overview
Fastball: 65. Slider: 60. Changeup: 50. Control: 50.
I got the chance to see Bukauskas pitch against Virginia Tech on May 13th, though it ended up being his worst start of the season as he walked five batters and failed to get out of the fourth inning. Still, the UNC ace is a very important pitcher to watch. Though he figured to go as high as the first round in high school after reclassifying and "skipping" his junior season in 2014 (when I actually had the opportunity to play against him), he asked teams not to draft him and ultimately ended up at UNC. After three years in which he has improved each season, he's a likely top ten pick with a blazing fastball, a wicked slider, and a track record of missing bats in college, though numerous questions abound.
Strengths
Bukauskas can straight up bring the head. He throws in the mid 90's, and that fastball is no straight offering. It has run and sink, making it a true plus pitch. His hard, mid 80's slider is another plus pitch, generating consistent swings and misses with its hard bite down away from right handers/down into left handers. With two plus pitches right now, he already has the floor of a high-leverage reliever (barring injury, of course), but he can hold his velocity into the late innings and he has every chance to start. He also has an emerging changeup that should be a useful pitch down the road. He has been compared to fellow undersized right hander Sonny Gray, who was drafted 18th overall by the A's out of Vanderbilt in 2011 and has been very effective when healthy. The A's pick sixth overall this year, and many mock drafts have had the A's picking the UNC right hander.
Weaknesses
Bukauskas can be inconsistent with his command, which hurt his chances to start. Also hurting his starting chances are his height and delivery. Bukauskas stands at six feet tall, which is certainly on the shorter side for a major league starting pitcher. He also doesn't have the smoothest delivery, as it features a short arm path and a lot of effort. Combine that with him being a smaller guy, and teams have very real concerns about his ability to start.
5/13/17 Report
@Virginia Tech: 3.1 IP, 4 R (3 ER), 6 H, 5 BB, 2 K's
As I stated in the overview paragraph, I did get the opportunity to watch Bukauskas pitch against a quietly good Virginia Tech offense on May 13th, and I have a nasty sunburn to show for it. He sat 93-95 throughout the game, touching 96 three times. He is usually a touch faster, but he did not have his best stuff on Saturday. He particularly struggled in commanding his slider, which he threw quite often. Sitting 84-87, it had the sharp bite as advertised and generated plenty of swings and misses, but Bukauskas missed his spots by a wide margin as often as he hit them. When it was placed at the knees, it was pretty much untouchable. However, he threw it in the dirt numerous times, missed wide, missed in, missed everywhere but up, often falling behind in counts and allowing runners to advance on wild pitches. Fortunately, he rarely missed up, which is the only time his slider actually flattened out and became hittable. Still, Hokie hitters were able to sit on his fastball, knowing that his slider would probably miss or even if it didn't, it was un-hittable and therefore not worth swinging at. By sitting on his fastball, they were able to square it up more than you'd expect, with senior shortstop Ryan Tufts blasting a 94 MPH offering over the left field stands and redshirt junior right fielder Tom Stoffel knocking a pair of doubles. I guess it would be important to note that Virginia Tech's baseball field is more than 2000 feet above sea level, but that is still nowhere near Coors Field in terms of altitude. I actually saw Bukauskas throw his changeup a couple of times while warming up between innings, and it looked pretty good, but I was surprised not to see him use it during the game, especially with his slider being all over the place. He obviously needs to build up his confidence in the pitch before it becomes a workable major league pitch.
Tracking Awards: 5/14
AL MVP: Mike Trout (LAA): 10 HR, 24 RBI, .347 AVG, 5 SB, 216 wRC+. Last week: Trout.
Trout and Judge remain neck and neck offensively (216 to 212 in wRC+, .471 to .473 in wOBA, 1.151 to 1.150 in OPS), but Trout gets the edge due to defensive value and the lack of lineup protection around him. He is slashing .347/.441/.711, all of which would be career highs, and his .376 BABIP (the "luck" factor) is not too high above his career .361. Coming into today, he has homered in back to back games, easing any worries about his hamstring at least from a hitting standpoint. This season has been vintage Mike Trout, a guy who is a future first ballot Hall of Famer easily.
NL MVP: Bryce Harper (WSH): 11 HR, 31 RBI, .368 AVG, 0 SB, 209 wRC+. Last week: Ryan Zimmerman.
Bryce Harper will take over this spot from his teammate, Ryan Zimmerman, as he outplayed him this week. He is getting on base at a ridiculous pace, leading the MLB with a .493 on-base percentage that crushed #2 Freddie Freeman's .463. He has walked more times (29) than he has struck out (27), while adding 11 home runs and nine doubles to go along with valuable defense. His 2.5 fWAR leads the MLB, and his .499 wOBA is second only to Zimmerman's .518. He's already had three four-hit games. The same day that he agreed to the largest arbitration contract in history, he knocked a walk-off home run for the Nationals, helping them maintain the best record in the National League. With Harper, Zimmerman, and Daniel Murphy (.331/.392/.554) in the middle of the lineup, the Nats offense has been pretty unstoppable to this point.
AL Cy Young: Jason Vargas (KC): 5-1, 1.01 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 39/8 K/BB. Last week: Ervin Santana.
Ervin Santana finally had a tough start, so the equally surprising Jason Vargas will step into this spot. He has only allowed runs in three of his seven starts, and he has only allowed more than one run in one of his starts. Take out one mediocre start against the White Sox on April 24th (5 IP, 3 ER, 7 H), then Vargas is 5-0 with a 0.45 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP over his other six starts. In each of those starts, he has gone at least six innings, allowed no more than one run or six hits, and walked no more than three batters. The 34 year old made just twelve starts from 2015-2016 due to Tommy John surgery, but he has come back stronger than ever here in his twelfth major league season.
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 6-2, 2.43 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 57/8 K/BB. Last week: Mike Leake.
Think about this: despite those great numbers, Kershaw is on pace to have his worst ERA and his worst WHIP since 2012 (2.53 and 1.02, respectively), when he led the National League in both. (Yes, that was typed correctly). Basically, his worst season was still the best in the NL, and this season, his "second worst," is still the best in the NL. Kershaw's "bloated" stats are still excellent, with a 2.43 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 57/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 55.2 innings. He gets the benefit of the doubt, because through eight starts, he's already pitched at Coors Field twice, allowing allowing a combined six runs over thirteen innings. At Coors Field, he's 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP and 10 strikeouts in 13 innings, which is pretty respectable for the conditions, but away from the pitchers' hell, he is 5-1 with a 1.90 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and 47 strikeouts over 42.2 innings. That is closer to the Clayton Kershaw we know, and it's the reason he gets the NL Cy Young Award for me at this point.
AL Rookie of the Year: Aaron Judge (NYY): 13 HR, 28 RBI, .315 AVG, 2 SB, 212 wRC+. Last week: Judge.
This one is the easiest choice, because Judge is even competing with Mike Trout for the AL MVP Award at this point. Through 31 games, he is tied for the MLB lead with 13 home runs while slashing .315/.411/.739, basically on par with Trout's offensive production. The 6'7", 282 pound outfielder has also been pretty good on defense, and despite solid efforts from Boston's Andrew Benintendi and Seattle's Mitch Haniger, it is looking like Judge could end up winning this award unanimously. He hasn't homered since May 3rd, though, so he should get back on that.
NL Rookie of the Year: Antonio Senzatela (COL): 5-1, 2.86 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 24/11 K/BB. Last week: Senzatela.
New week, more of the same from the Rockies' star young pitcher. This week's start came in Coors Field against the defending World Champion Cubs, but he was unfazed, allowing just two runs on five hits and three walks in six innings, striking out four. That brings his Coors Field-only ERA down to 3.12 and his WHIP to 1.08, versus a 2.50 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in stadiums that aren't pitchers' hells. For any pitcher to perform this well as a Rockie is impressive, but for a rookie, it's downright amazing.
Minor League Watch: Taylor Gushue (Nationals High Class A): 11 HR, 33 RBI, .326 AVG, 0 SB, 195 wRC+. Last week: Thomas Pannone.
Quick update on Pannone: upon his promotion to AA Akron, Pannone extended his scoreless streak to 51.1 innings, 33.1 of which have come this season. Obviously, AA wasn't too much of a challenge in that start.
Okay, on to Gushue. Playing 2016 at High Class A Bradenton, Gushue put up a very mediocre season by slashing .226/.282/.357 with eight home runs over 90 games at age 22. The Pirates then sent him, with cash, to the Nationals for prospect Chris Bostick, and this team has been a completely flipped script. Repeating High Class A, he has slashed .326/.373/.753 over 25 games, crushing eleven home runs and five doubles for Potomac. Aside from a seven game homerless drought from April 15th to April 23rd, he has not gone more than two games without a home run at any point this season. He homered in four straight games April 10th to April 14th, and also had two-homer games on May 1st and May 10th. Meanwhile, he is batting .326 with a .373 on-base percentage, so he's not just a power bat. Look for this pop-up Nationals prospect down the road, as he will play all of 2017 at 23 years old.
Friday, May 12, 2017
2017 Draft Preview: Tanner Houck
RHP Tanner Houck (University of Missouri): 6'5", 215 lbs, born 6/29/1996
Overview
Fastball: 65. Slider: 50. Changeup: 50. Control: 55.
Tanner Houck, Mizzou's flamethrowing ace, is one of the more polarizing prospects in this draft. He consistently throws his fastball in the mid 90's, but his lack of developed secondaries keep him from truly being a top of the draft talent. He also throws from a low three quarters arm slot with possibly the longest arm path among potential Day One draftees. Houck has a solid track record at Missouri, as he has been a full time starter since the very beginning of his freshman year, and with good results. However, he is a bit unique among this year's top crop of college starts in that he hasn't broken out this year (Brendan McKay, J.B. Bukauskas, Griffin Canning, David Peterson, Clarke Schmidt pre-injury) or suffered through an up and down campaign (Kyle Wright, Alex Faedo, Alex Lange, Seth Romero); rather, Houck has been pretty much nothing more or nothing less than as expected, the only first-round hopeful to do so among college pitchers. However, because of Houck's polarizing nature, he could go pretty much anywhere in the first round or supplemental/competitive balance rounds, though he is unlikely to crack the top ten.
Strengths
Fastball. Houck cranks a sinking, running fastball in the low to mid 90's, even touching the upper 90's as a starter. It is a true plus pitch, rivaling the fastballs of Hunter Greene, J.B. Bukauskas, and Nate Pearson for the best in the draft. Interestingly enough, despite his unconventional mechanics that involve reaching way behind his back with his long arms, he commands the pitch well. Additionally, the 6'5" righty has proven to be extremely durable during his time at Missouri, nearing 300 innings for his career in less than three years. He's also fairly young for a college junior, as he won't turn 21 until more than two weeks after the draft, making him younger than draft-eligible sophomores Tristan Beck and Blaine Knight.
Weaknesses
At this point, the fastball is Houck's only MLB ready pitch. He can get by on blowing college hitters away with the heat, but he'll need to improve his slider and changeup to cut it as a big league starter. Houck throws his slider fairly regularly now, but it grades as average at best and lacks the bite to be useful in its current form. Couple his lack of a full arsenal with his irregular delivery, and many doubt his ability to remain a starter in pro ball. In my opinion, he's probably a reliever at the major league level, but if he can refine his off-speed pitches, he still could be a mid-rotation starter.
Overview
Fastball: 65. Slider: 50. Changeup: 50. Control: 55.
Tanner Houck, Mizzou's flamethrowing ace, is one of the more polarizing prospects in this draft. He consistently throws his fastball in the mid 90's, but his lack of developed secondaries keep him from truly being a top of the draft talent. He also throws from a low three quarters arm slot with possibly the longest arm path among potential Day One draftees. Houck has a solid track record at Missouri, as he has been a full time starter since the very beginning of his freshman year, and with good results. However, he is a bit unique among this year's top crop of college starts in that he hasn't broken out this year (Brendan McKay, J.B. Bukauskas, Griffin Canning, David Peterson, Clarke Schmidt pre-injury) or suffered through an up and down campaign (Kyle Wright, Alex Faedo, Alex Lange, Seth Romero); rather, Houck has been pretty much nothing more or nothing less than as expected, the only first-round hopeful to do so among college pitchers. However, because of Houck's polarizing nature, he could go pretty much anywhere in the first round or supplemental/competitive balance rounds, though he is unlikely to crack the top ten.
Strengths
Fastball. Houck cranks a sinking, running fastball in the low to mid 90's, even touching the upper 90's as a starter. It is a true plus pitch, rivaling the fastballs of Hunter Greene, J.B. Bukauskas, and Nate Pearson for the best in the draft. Interestingly enough, despite his unconventional mechanics that involve reaching way behind his back with his long arms, he commands the pitch well. Additionally, the 6'5" righty has proven to be extremely durable during his time at Missouri, nearing 300 innings for his career in less than three years. He's also fairly young for a college junior, as he won't turn 21 until more than two weeks after the draft, making him younger than draft-eligible sophomores Tristan Beck and Blaine Knight.
Weaknesses
At this point, the fastball is Houck's only MLB ready pitch. He can get by on blowing college hitters away with the heat, but he'll need to improve his slider and changeup to cut it as a big league starter. Houck throws his slider fairly regularly now, but it grades as average at best and lacks the bite to be useful in its current form. Couple his lack of a full arsenal with his irregular delivery, and many doubt his ability to remain a starter in pro ball. In my opinion, he's probably a reliever at the major league level, but if he can refine his off-speed pitches, he still could be a mid-rotation starter.
Wednesday, May 10, 2017
2017 Draft Preview: Drew Waters
OF Drew Waters (Etowah HS, GA): 6'2", 185 lbs, born 12/30/1998
Overview
Hit: 50. Power: 55. Run: 60. Throw: 55. Field: 60.
Drew Waters is an athletic high school outfielder from the Atlanta area. As of now, he's not quite a first rounder, but I am a big fan of his and I believe his talent warrants a first round selection. Waters, a switch hitter, has a broad set of tools that could all grade out as above average, making him a potential five-tool threat. His left handed and right handed swings are not identical, with his left handed swing producing more power and his right handed swing being more geared towards contact. Unless he signs an under-slot deal earlier, his likely draft range is somewhere in the supplemental, competitive balance, or early second rounds.
Strengths
Waters is an athlete, and this translates well on both sides of the ball. He grades out as a plus defender in the outfield, with the ability to man all three spots with above average arm strength. His athletic build is also very projectable, with plenty of room to add strength. At the plate, he is one of the most intriguing players in this draft. His big left handed swing produces a ton of bat speed, and the ball jumps off his bat for deep line drives and fly balls. From the right side, his swing is a little cleaner and a lot more compact, but the bat speed is still there and he sprays line drives all over the field.
Weaknesses
Like many high school switch hitters, he is a bit raw, and the differing approaches from either side of the plate are not ideal. He has a lot of cleaning up to do with his left handed swing, which makes him a high risk pick for the first round. However, past the first 25 or so picks, the upside might just be too much to pass up.
Overview
Hit: 50. Power: 55. Run: 60. Throw: 55. Field: 60.
Drew Waters is an athletic high school outfielder from the Atlanta area. As of now, he's not quite a first rounder, but I am a big fan of his and I believe his talent warrants a first round selection. Waters, a switch hitter, has a broad set of tools that could all grade out as above average, making him a potential five-tool threat. His left handed and right handed swings are not identical, with his left handed swing producing more power and his right handed swing being more geared towards contact. Unless he signs an under-slot deal earlier, his likely draft range is somewhere in the supplemental, competitive balance, or early second rounds.
Strengths
Waters is an athlete, and this translates well on both sides of the ball. He grades out as a plus defender in the outfield, with the ability to man all three spots with above average arm strength. His athletic build is also very projectable, with plenty of room to add strength. At the plate, he is one of the most intriguing players in this draft. His big left handed swing produces a ton of bat speed, and the ball jumps off his bat for deep line drives and fly balls. From the right side, his swing is a little cleaner and a lot more compact, but the bat speed is still there and he sprays line drives all over the field.
Weaknesses
Like many high school switch hitters, he is a bit raw, and the differing approaches from either side of the plate are not ideal. He has a lot of cleaning up to do with his left handed swing, which makes him a high risk pick for the first round. However, past the first 25 or so picks, the upside might just be too much to pass up.
Sunday, May 7, 2017
2017 Draft Preview: Jeren Kendall
OF Jeren Kendall (Vanderbilt): 5'10", 180 lbs, born 2/4/1996
Overview
Hit: 50. Power: 50. Run: 70. Throw: 55. Field: 60.
When you hear high-risk, high-reward, you typically think of high schoolers, but that label applies very well to Vanderbilt outfielder Jeren Kendall. He has put up big college numbers against top pitching in the SEC, slashing .308/.391/.557 over his college career as of May 7th, but there is continued skepticism over his ability to hit at the higher levels. If he does maximize his tools, he has the upside of a Jacoby Ellsbury/Grady Sizemore type player. Coming into the season, he was seen as a top-five pick after slashing .332/.396/.568 and stealing 28 bases as a sophomore, with early mock drafts placing him as high as #2 to the Reds, but an up and down spring has damaged his stock a tad. Still, with a .302/.382/.568 and 16 stolen bases so far in 2017, he is considered a front half of the first round pick.
Strengths
Kendall is an athlete. His speed stands out the most, having stolen 63 bases in 79 attempts (79.7% success rate), including 16 of 20 this season (80%). His speed also helps him on defense, where he grades out as a plus defender and should have no problem sticking in center field. He also does have that strong track record of offensive performance in the SEC, and his .266 ISO this season is an improvement on his .236 last season. His strong wrists snap the bat through the zone, generating power with a quick, simple swing.
Weaknesses
Despite all the tools and even all the performance, whether he will be able to maintain that high level of performance at the next level is up for debate. Kendall has a lot of swing and miss in his game, and after he posted K/BB ratios of 60/21 as a freshman and 62/25 as a sophomore, there was hopes that he would improve that ratio in 2017. However, unlike other college hitters like Keston Hiura, Jake Burger, and Adam Haseley, he has been unable to do so, putting up a 55/23 ratio so far. His strikeout rate has actually increased from 23.6% as a freshman/sophomore to 24.8% as a junior, though his 10.4% walk rate is a career best. I stated in the strengths section that he has a quick, simple swing, but because he simply throws his hands at the ball and snaps his wrists through, his barrel often isn't in the zone for long, contributing to his swing and miss tendencies. Whether pro coaching can help him fix those issues is yet to be seen.
Overview
Hit: 50. Power: 50. Run: 70. Throw: 55. Field: 60.
When you hear high-risk, high-reward, you typically think of high schoolers, but that label applies very well to Vanderbilt outfielder Jeren Kendall. He has put up big college numbers against top pitching in the SEC, slashing .308/.391/.557 over his college career as of May 7th, but there is continued skepticism over his ability to hit at the higher levels. If he does maximize his tools, he has the upside of a Jacoby Ellsbury/Grady Sizemore type player. Coming into the season, he was seen as a top-five pick after slashing .332/.396/.568 and stealing 28 bases as a sophomore, with early mock drafts placing him as high as #2 to the Reds, but an up and down spring has damaged his stock a tad. Still, with a .302/.382/.568 and 16 stolen bases so far in 2017, he is considered a front half of the first round pick.
Strengths
Kendall is an athlete. His speed stands out the most, having stolen 63 bases in 79 attempts (79.7% success rate), including 16 of 20 this season (80%). His speed also helps him on defense, where he grades out as a plus defender and should have no problem sticking in center field. He also does have that strong track record of offensive performance in the SEC, and his .266 ISO this season is an improvement on his .236 last season. His strong wrists snap the bat through the zone, generating power with a quick, simple swing.
Weaknesses
Despite all the tools and even all the performance, whether he will be able to maintain that high level of performance at the next level is up for debate. Kendall has a lot of swing and miss in his game, and after he posted K/BB ratios of 60/21 as a freshman and 62/25 as a sophomore, there was hopes that he would improve that ratio in 2017. However, unlike other college hitters like Keston Hiura, Jake Burger, and Adam Haseley, he has been unable to do so, putting up a 55/23 ratio so far. His strikeout rate has actually increased from 23.6% as a freshman/sophomore to 24.8% as a junior, though his 10.4% walk rate is a career best. I stated in the strengths section that he has a quick, simple swing, but because he simply throws his hands at the ball and snaps his wrists through, his barrel often isn't in the zone for long, contributing to his swing and miss tendencies. Whether pro coaching can help him fix those issues is yet to be seen.
Tracking Awards: 5/7
AL MVP: Mike Trout (LAA): 8 HR, 21 RBI, .355 AVG, 5 SB, 215 wRC+. Last week: Trout.
Mike Trout, named the American League's Player of the Month for April, has continued his hot hitting into may (is it really "hot hitting" if he does this all the time, though?). After slashing .364/.443/.707 with seven home runs in 27 May games, he has slashed .273/.467/.636 with one home run over three May games as hamstring tightness has held him out of the lineup. He is currently riding a 17 game hitting streak, and he has reached base in 29 of his 30 games this season. His only blemish this season was an 0-4 in Ian Kennedy's gem (8 shutout innings, 2 hits, 2 walks, 10 K's). 30 games in, we are seeing vintage Mike Trout.
NL MVP: Ryan Zimmerman (WSH): 13 HR, 34 RBI, .435 AVG, 1 SB, 252 wRC+. Last week: Zimmerman.
It's May 7th and Ryan Zimmerman is still slashing a ridiculous .435/.475/.907, leading the National League in home runs (13) and just about every other category. His 252 wRC+ is 30 points higher than the next best in the majors (Aaron Judge, 222) and 42 points higher than the next best in the National League (Bryce Harper, 210). He won the NL Player of the Month Award after slashing .420/.458/.886 with 11 home runs in 24 games in April, and he has only gotten better in May, slashing .500/.545/1.000 with a pair of home runs in five games. He has had at least two hits in eight of his past nine games, slashing .553/.561/1.158 and smashing six home runs over that span. I talked last week about how higher launch angles have helped Zim's production, but at this point, this is just absurd. Nothing we can do but sit back and enjoy his onslaught.
AL Cy Young: Ervin Santana (MIN): 5-0, 0.66 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 33/13 K/BB. Last week: Santana.
Coming into the week having occupied this spot in each of the past two weeks, Santana made it three weeks in a row by casually tossing six shutout innings against the A's on Tuesday, allowing three hits and three walks while striking out seven. His ERA has dropped to a minuscule 0.66 as he has allowed just three earned runs over 41 innings, and perhaps even more impressive, just 16 hits. Allowing less than a hit per two innings has led to an opponents' slash line of just .120/.199/.180. The surprising Twins are 15-13 this season, thanks in large part to Santana's dominance every fifth day.
NL Cy Young: Mike Leake (STL): 4-1, 1.79 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 27/7 K/BB. Last week: Ivan Nova.
While Leake has hung around this spot for a few weeks now, tough starts from Noah Syndergaard (1.1 IP, 5 ER) and Ivan Nova (6 IP, 4 ER) allowed him to step in despite not having the world's greatest game (7 IP, 3 ER). Largely mediocre in his first season in St. Louis (9-12, 4.69 ERA, 1.32 WHIP), Leake has been everything the Cardinals have wanted this year, putting up a 1.79 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP over six starts. Each of his six starts have been quality starts (at least 6 IP, at most 3 ER), and Adonis Garcia's three run home run on Saturday was the first home run hit off Leake this season. He hasn't put up Ervin Santana-type numbers, but in a National League where Ryan Zimmerman, Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, Eric Thames, etc. are hitting the snot out of the ball, what Leake has been doing has been pretty incredible. Those four hitters have combined to go 2-12 (.167 AVG) with a pair of strikeouts, no walks, and no extra base hits against Leake, with only Zimmerman and Thames picking up lone singles despite terrorizing NL pitching otherwise.
AL Rookie of the Year: Aaron Judge (NYY): 13 HR, 27 RBI, .320 AVG, 1 SB, 222 wRC+. Last week: Judge.
Earlier in the season, Mitch Haniger's hot start had him in this spot. At this point, not only is Judge looking like a unanimous AL ROY, he is competing with Mike Trout for AL MVP consideration. Judge slashed just .133/.188/.200 in his first five games, picking up a single, a double, and a walk while striking out five times in 16 plate appearances. Since then, he has been unstoppable, slashing .354/.454/.878 with 13 home runs in 22 games. I talked last week about his improved plate discipline, and that is still the case today, and the numbers show it. With three home runs in May, he and Ryan "Babe Ruth" Zimmerman are tied for the MLB lead with 13, and Judge's 222 wRC+ and .487 wOBA actually edge Trout for the AL lead (215 and .469, respectively).
NL Rookie of the Year: Antonio Senzatela (COL): 4-1, 2.84 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 20/8 K/BB. Last week: Senzatela.
For the first time since April 16th, Senzatela got the chance to pitch somewhere other than Coors Field on Wednesday, and he didn't disappoint, allowing two earned runs on six hits and one walk over six innings, striking out two Padres in San Diego. His ERA and WHIP stand at 2.84 and 1.03, respectively, which actually puts him in NL Cy Young consideration given the difficulty of pitching half your games in Coors Field and the lack of one true frontrunner in the race. Senzatela knows what kills you in Denver, so he has walked just eight of the 151 batters he has faced, good for an excellent 5.3% rate, especially for a rookie. We'll see how a full season as a Rockie goes, but he's looking great so far.
Minor League Watch: Thomas Pannone (CLE AA): 2-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.61 WHIP, 39/7 K/BB. Last week: Domenic Mazza.
Thomas Pannone was the Indians' ninth round pick in 2013 out of the College of Southern Nevada, and he pitched decently but uninspiringly over his first three seasons. Pannone was good enough at Class A Lake County in 2015 (5-5, 3.02 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 84/25 K/BB) to earn a promotion to High Class A Lynchburg in 2016, where he was excellent down the stretch. After not allowing an earned run in his final 18 innings in 2016, the Indians started him off with Lynchburg again in 2017, and it was more of the same. Over five starts, he still didn't allow an earned run over 27.2 innings, giving him 45.2 consecutive shutout innings (though he did allow an unearned run on April 12th against the Salem Red Sox). In his five starts this year, he allowed just ten hits and and seven walks, striking out 39. In no start has he allowed an earned run, more than four hits, more than two walks, or struck out fewer than six. The amazing performances earned the 23 year old a promotion to AA Akron, where he has yet to pitch.
Thursday, May 4, 2017
2017 Draft Preview: MacKenzie Gore
LHP MacKenzie Gore (Whitesville HS, NC): 6'2", 180 lbs, born 2/24/1999
Overview
Fastball: 60. Curveball: 60. Slider: 55. Changeup: 50. Control: 55.
Very few players in this draft have as much helium as MacKenzie Gore, the left handed pitcher out of southeastern North Carolina. Entering the season, Gore was seen as a project who had the tools to succeed but hadn't quite put them together yet. A monster spring has rocketed him up draft boards, where he could easily go as high as the top five picks, and is a near lock for the top ten, barring collapse or injury.
Strengths
The first thing that stands out about Gore is his makeup. He is a fierce competitor, one who goes right after hitters with a high leg lift and a full arsenal. Gore's stuff has also made a huge leap forward this spring, with his fastball sitting 92-95 with peaks at 96-97, and it figures to get even faster as he matures. The 6'2" lefty also spins a tight, hard breaking curveball that draws plus grades. His slider and changeup are also fairly advanced for a high schooler, giving him the chance to have four above average major league pitches. Surprisingly for such a raw pitcher, he actually commands everything pretty well, hitting his spots with all of his pitches. He keeps it up through his starts, maintaining velocity and stuff into the late innings due to his bulldog mentality.
Weaknesses
Gore is still somewhat of a project. He's extremely raw, with a funky delivery featuring lots of wasted movement that detracts from his velocity. He has legs and arms flying everywhere, not necessarily going towards the plate, but that could actually be the best way to criticize him because it's completely fixable. If pro coaching can corral his delivery, he could add even more velocity and get into the upper 90's.
Overview
Fastball: 60. Curveball: 60. Slider: 55. Changeup: 50. Control: 55.
Very few players in this draft have as much helium as MacKenzie Gore, the left handed pitcher out of southeastern North Carolina. Entering the season, Gore was seen as a project who had the tools to succeed but hadn't quite put them together yet. A monster spring has rocketed him up draft boards, where he could easily go as high as the top five picks, and is a near lock for the top ten, barring collapse or injury.
Strengths
The first thing that stands out about Gore is his makeup. He is a fierce competitor, one who goes right after hitters with a high leg lift and a full arsenal. Gore's stuff has also made a huge leap forward this spring, with his fastball sitting 92-95 with peaks at 96-97, and it figures to get even faster as he matures. The 6'2" lefty also spins a tight, hard breaking curveball that draws plus grades. His slider and changeup are also fairly advanced for a high schooler, giving him the chance to have four above average major league pitches. Surprisingly for such a raw pitcher, he actually commands everything pretty well, hitting his spots with all of his pitches. He keeps it up through his starts, maintaining velocity and stuff into the late innings due to his bulldog mentality.
Weaknesses
Gore is still somewhat of a project. He's extremely raw, with a funky delivery featuring lots of wasted movement that detracts from his velocity. He has legs and arms flying everywhere, not necessarily going towards the plate, but that could actually be the best way to criticize him because it's completely fixable. If pro coaching can corral his delivery, he could add even more velocity and get into the upper 90's.
Wednesday, May 3, 2017
2017 Draft Preview: Nick Allen
SS Nick Allen (Francis Parker HS, CA): 5'8", 160 lbs, born 10/8/1998
Overview
Hit: 55. Power: 30. Field: 70. Throw: 55. Run: 60.
Nick Allen, standing at all of 5'8" and 160 pounds, is arguably this draft's most fun player to watch. The high schooler from San Diego plays an excellent shortstop, making highlight reel plays seem routine. Really, the only question right now surrounds his bat, and he will likely sneak into the back half of the first round with a team that can overlook his lack of height.
Strengths
Allen shines with the glove, to the point where it is almost impossible to get a ground ball through the infield on the left side. He'll have absolutely no trouble staying at shortstop, as he has enough arm strength to remain there. He also has a quick bat that produces consistent contact, and as you'd expect from a player of his profile, his makeup is off the charts, giving him every chance to maximize his tools on the field. Ultimately, there is no reason not to love Nick Allen, even if you don't see him as a first rounder.
Weaknesses
Because of his small stature, power is hard to come by. It will likely never be even average, though there is hope for improving that 30 grade to a 40 down the road. Allen tends to leak his power over his front foot, which is an easy fix with pro coaching. His swing is also very geared towards line drives at this point, meaning it is linear and down through the zone, so adding a bit of loft could help him reach that 40.
Overview
Hit: 55. Power: 30. Field: 70. Throw: 55. Run: 60.
Nick Allen, standing at all of 5'8" and 160 pounds, is arguably this draft's most fun player to watch. The high schooler from San Diego plays an excellent shortstop, making highlight reel plays seem routine. Really, the only question right now surrounds his bat, and he will likely sneak into the back half of the first round with a team that can overlook his lack of height.
Strengths
Allen shines with the glove, to the point where it is almost impossible to get a ground ball through the infield on the left side. He'll have absolutely no trouble staying at shortstop, as he has enough arm strength to remain there. He also has a quick bat that produces consistent contact, and as you'd expect from a player of his profile, his makeup is off the charts, giving him every chance to maximize his tools on the field. Ultimately, there is no reason not to love Nick Allen, even if you don't see him as a first rounder.
Weaknesses
Because of his small stature, power is hard to come by. It will likely never be even average, though there is hope for improving that 30 grade to a 40 down the road. Allen tends to leak his power over his front foot, which is an easy fix with pro coaching. His swing is also very geared towards line drives at this point, meaning it is linear and down through the zone, so adding a bit of loft could help him reach that 40.
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