AL MVP: Mike Trout (LAA): 14 HR, 34 RBI, .350 AVG, 9 SB, 222 wRC+. Last week: Trout.
Last week, Trout and Judge were neck and neck for this award, and while Judge blasted a pair of home runs to give himself sole possession of the MLB lead at 15, Trout has managed to put some daylight between himself and the rookie. He homered in four straight games from May 12th to May 15th, then added home runs on May 17th and May 21st. Riding a nine game on-base streak, Trout has somehow managed to make his May (.317/.508/.878) better than his April (.364/.443/.707), and he now leads the MLB in wRC+ (222) and the AL in wOBA (.487). His 3.1 fWAR puts him well ahead of second place Freddie Freeman (2.6), making MLB's only three win player still less than a third of the way through the season. Steamer now projects Trout to finish the season with a .320/.440/.632 slash line, which would rank as the best of his career, even with some regression through the rest of the season.
NL MVP: Freddie Freeman (ATL): 14 HR, 25 RBI, .341 AVG, 4 SB, 204 wRC+. Last week: Bryce Harper.
Unfortunately, Freeman won't hang onto this spot for long after an Aaron Loup fastball broke his left wrist, likely holding him out for ten weeks. For now, though, his numbers are the best in the National League. He's leading it with 14 home runs, as well as with his 204 wRC+, 2.6 fWAR, and .489 wOBA, the latter of which actually leads the MLB. Freeman was hot, too, when he got hurt, having homered in his last two games and having collected at least two hits in three of his past four games. His .341/.461/.748 slash line is pretty mighty, and the Braves are certainly going to miss it while he recovers. They added Matt Adams (.292/.340/.396) in a trade in response, but he's no MVP.
AL Cy Young: Dallas Keuchel (HOU): 7-0, 1.84 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 54/14 K/BB. Last week: Jason Vargas.
Here we have another injured player, though unlike Freeman, Keuchel is only expected to miss one start with a pinched nerve in his neck. After respective tough starts for Ervin Santana and Jason Vargas the week they each claimed this spot, Keuchel will be our third AL Cy Young in three weeks. Through nine starts, Keuchel is unbeaten (for what it's worth) with a 0.86 WHIP and an MLB-leading 1.84 ERA. Aside from one tough start where Astros manager A.J. Hinch left him in way too long, Keuchel has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his other eight starts. Leave out that eight inning, five run performance in Los Angeles on May 5th (in which he had allowed just two runs in the first eight innings before allowing three more in the ninth), and Keuchel's ERA and WHIP drop to 1.29 and 0.83, respectively. The Houston ace has done this by putting up a wicked, MLB-leading 2.97 ground out to air out ratio, taking advantage of the fact that ground balls are a pitcher's friend and limiting balls in the air. This has led opponents to bat just .217 on balls in play against him, and while that may be due for some regression, I don't expect it to float all the way up to his career mark of .294 as BABIP's tend to do. After a tough 2016 (4.55 ERA, 1.29 WHIP), Keuchel is pitching better than ever, including his 2015 AL Cy Young season.
NL Cy Young Award: Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 7-2, 2.15 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 62/8 K/BB. Last week: Kershaw.
Last week, I mentioned that partially because he had made two starts at Coors Field already, Kershaw's 2.43 ERA and 0.95 WHIP were his worst since 2012. He must have read this, because in his next start, on May 17th, he shut down the Giants over seven innings, allowing no runs on three hits and no walks while striking out five. His ERA and WHIP dropped to 2.15 and 0.89, respectively, but that 2.15 ERA is still his worst since 2012 and the 0.89 WHIP is his worst since 2013. Can you believe this guy? The two greatest players of our generation currently play in Los Angeles, with Mike Trout tearing it up for the Angels and Clayton Kershaw shutting it down for the Dodgers.
AL Rookie of the Year: Aaron Judge (NYY): 15 HR, 30 RBI, .321 AVG, 200 wRC+. Last week: Aaron Judge.
Something tells me the Yankees' 25 year old right fielder isn't letting go of this spot any time soon. He is leading the majors with his 15 home runs, and 39 games into his season, he is still producing twice the offense as the average player, as evidenced by his 200 wRC+. After slashing what was thought to be an unsustainable .303/.411/.750 in April, he has been just about as good in May, slashing .344/.432/.656. His .390 BABIP is pretty inflated, so expect some regression, but we've thought that was due for a while and it hasn't happened yet. For now, Judge can just keep blasting home runs and getting on base.
NL Rookie of the Year: Kyle Freeland (COL): 5-2, 3.31 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 32/24 K/BB. Last week: Antonio Senzatela.
Back to back tough starts have dropped Antonio Senzatela from this spot, but another Rockies' rookie starter has jumped in to scoop it up before Dodgers rookie Cody Bellinger could. Kyle Freeland has had all the same disadvantages as Senzatela by pitching in Coors Field, but it hasn't bothered him yet, as he has a 3.31 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP through nine starts. That gets even better when you consider his 3.80 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in four home starts, meaning he has a 2.89 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in five starts in more pitcher-friendly locations. Despite pitching in Coors, he actually has only allowed more than three earned runs in one of his nine starts. Take out the second MLB start of his career on April 12th in Coors Field, when he allowed six runs against the Padres, and he has 2.49 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP over eight starts, five on the road and three at Coors. While Freeland needs to get his walk rate down (10.9% of the batters he's faced so far, or 24 out of 221), his secret to success has been the same as Dallas Keuchel's, as his 2.44 ground out to air out ratio leads the NL. Considering that he pitches in Coors Field (how many times can I mention that in one paragraph?), this number is even more important to him than Keuchel's is to himself.
Minor League Watch: Kolby Allard (ATL AA): 4-1, 1.65 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 41/13 K/BB. Last week: Taylor Gushue.
The Braves selected Allard with the 14th overall pick in the 2015 draft out of high school in California, but had he been healthy, he could have easily gone in the top ten picks and possibly within the top five. He's showing why this year, dominating the AA Southern League at just 19 years old. Through nine starts, the teenager has a 1.65 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 41/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 49 innings, forcing the Braves to at least consider promoting him to AAA Gwinnett. Down in Mississippi, he has allowed more than two runs in a start just once, as he allowed three in his most recent outing on May 19th. His most impressive start came on May 4th in Birmingham, when he tossed six shutout innings on three hits and no walks, striking out 11 Barons. Right now it's a four way race to see who will be the first player younger than me to break into the major leagues, with Allard, his AA teammate Mike Soroka (3.14 ERA, 1.02 WHIP), another Braves prospect in Ozzie Albies (.259/.308/.388 at AAA Gwinnett), and Padres prospect Luis Urias (.344/.429/.485 at AA San Antonio) making their cases.
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