RHP Alex Lange (Louisiana State): 6'4", 200 lbs, born 10/2/1995.
Overview
Fastball: 60. Curveball: 65. Changeup: 50. Control: 45.
Among collegiate likely first rounders, Alex Lange is one of the bigger wild cards. He was one of the most dominant freshmen in the country in 2015 (1.97 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 131/46 K/BB), but was very inconsistent as a sophomore in 2016 (3.79 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 125/49 K/BB). This year has been a mix of both; he's flashed dominance, but has had a few starts that set him back, so far compiling a 2.79 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 111/33 K/BB. When he's on, he flashes #2 starter potential, but when he's not, he reminds you of a #5 starter or even a long reliever. Because he has higher upside on the mound than other college arms like Brendan McKay, Griffin Canning, or David Peterson, he could go pretty much anywhere back half of the first round, and could easily be taken in the top 20 picks.
Strengths
Lange already has two big league pitches in a low to mid 90's fastball and a power curve that could be the best in this draft class. While his changeup is not major league ready, it is coming along nicely with good depth and will likely be a solid contrast for his fastball at the big league level. He has a deceptive delivery that allows his arsenal to play up, and his overall profile screams mid-rotation starter.
Weaknesses
Much of Lange's inconsistencies are directly derived from his spotty command. The command troubles, in turn, derive from his delivery. The delivery features an outward leg kick as well as extension of the glove hand towards third base before he attempts to bring everything back on line to the plate. When he can get everything back on line, it creates deception and can throw off opposing hitters. However, he often struggles to corral all of his flying limbs, and when they don't stay on line, his command suffers. The fastball/curve combo is deadly, but if he can't command it, it's worthless, so his success will be tied to his delivery going forward. Best case scenario, if he gets consistent with his delivery and further develops his changeup, he is a #2 starter. He has significant work to do to get there, but I am an optimist.
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