The Dodgers feature a lot of high upside talent, but unlike a lot of other upside-oriented systems such as that of the Rangers or Indians, there is both a lot of depth here and more refinement in the high-upside players. The Dodgers do a terrific job of player development, which is obvious to us after they produced 2016 NL Rookie of the Year Corey Seager, 2017 NL Rookie of the Year Cody Bellinger, and 2018 3rd place NL ROY finisher Walker Buehler in consecutive seasons. Even with that string of graduations and some trades that have sent away Yusniel Diaz, Dean Kremer, and James Marinan, among others, that player development system has enabled the team to continue keeping up a high level farm. Interestingly, this team also has a high number of catchers coming through the system with four guys that I'd like to note in this writeup – the most of any team so far.
Affiliates: AAA Oklahoma City Dodgers, AA Tulsa Drillers, High A Rancho Cucamonga Quakes, Class A Great Lakes Loons, rookie level Ogden Raptors, and complex level AZL and DSL Dodgers
High Minors Hitters: OF Alex Verdugo, C Will Smith, 1B Edwin Rios, C Keibert Ruiz, SS Gavin Lux, OF DJ Peters, and SS Errol Robinson
There is a lot of talent very close to the major leagues for the Dodgers, and with an incredibly deep big league roster as it its, a lot of these guys are expendable in a potential J.T. Realmuto or otherwise big trade. If they were actually able to find him playing time, I would call 22 year old Alex Verdugo the next in line in the Seager-Bellinger-Buehler parade, but with an already-crowded outfield, he's probably best off somewhere else right now because he's absolutely ready. In 2018, the Tucson native slashed .329/.391/.472 with ten home runs and a 47/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 games at AAA Oklahoma City (plus .260/.329/.377 over 37 major league games), his second straight season with an OPS above .800 and a strikeout rate below 13% at AAA. He has exceptional contact ability that enables him to put even the fastest fastballs and best breaking balls in play, and that makes his moderate power play up. He'll never be a 25-30 homer bat in the majors, but he'll post on-base percentages well north of .350 while his cannon arm will enable him to play good defense in right field. He's ready now, and somebody just needs to find him some playing time. Please. 23 year old Will Smith (not to be confused with Giants reliever Will Smith or with rapper/actor Will Smith) slashed .264/.358/.532 at AA Tulsa before slumping to just .138/.206/.218 at Oklahoma City in 2018, totaling 20 home runs and a 112/43 strikeout to walk ratio and a composite .233/.322/.455 line over 98 games between the two levels. He's not your typical catcher because he has some speed (he has 15 stolen bases in 18 career attempts in the minors) and can actually play the infield if you ask him, but the Dodgers are perfectly content keeping him behind the plate, where he is above average defensively. While the bat was considered a little light early in his career, his big run through the AA Texas League this year has boosted his stock and bumped him from likely back-up to possible starter. The slump in AAA was enough to temper expectations a little bit, but if the Dodgers don't acquire Realmuto or another catcher before the season, Smith absolutely has a shot to take over as the starting catcher at some point in 2019 if he makes the necessary adjustments. Don't expect high batting averages, but he should be able to produce just enough. 24 year old Edwin Rios has hit and hit everywhere he has been in the minors, including a .304/.355/.482 slash line with ten home runs and a 110/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games at Oklahoma City this year. The power was a bit down after he blasted 27 and 24 home runs in 2016 and 2017, respectively, and so far he has proven that his aggressive approach does not stop him from producing against high level pitching. He'll have to continue producing because he is limited to first base defensively, and while he's more likely a platoon bat than a future starter, he might get a chance to do some damage at the major league level if traded to another, shallower team. If his plate discipline holds up just enough, he should be able to slug 15-20 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages. Moving down a level, 20 year old Keibert Ruiz gives the Dodgers another high level catching prospect, and his ceiling is even higher than Smith's. In 2018, Ruiz slashed .268/.328/.401 with 12 home runs and a 33/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 games at Tulsa, primarily showing excellent plate discipline for a kid who just turned 20 mid-season. He makes steady contact and rarely gets fooled at the plate, and while he's not Will Smith behind it, he's good enough defensively that the Dodgers won't have to worry about moving him to a different position. How the Dodgers handle getting both Ruiz and Smith playing time in 2019 will be interesting, whether that means aggressively promoting one to the majors, holding one back in AA where they don't belong, or giving Smith more reps in the infield so Ruiz can get more starts behind the plate in AAA. Of course, one could find themselves traded and then this wouldn't be an issue. Ultimately, Ruiz projects as a starting catcher who can post high on-base percentages while hitting 15-20 home runs per season, and at his best he could be an All Star. 21 year old Gavin Lux had a breakout year in 2018 and has pushed himself near the top of the Dodgers' prospect rankings, having slashed .324/.399/.514 with 15 home runs, 13 stolen bases, and an 88/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 games at High A Rancho Cucamonga and Tulsa. He's the complete package as a player, showing power, on-base ability, plate discipline, some speed, and the ability to stick in the infield defensively, all as a kid who just turned 21 in November. While he may be forced to move to second base from shortstop (Corey Seager's presence doesn't help Lux's chances there anyways), he has the bat to profile there and has All Star upside. 23 year old DJ Peters slashed .236/.320/.473 with 29 home runs and a 192/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games with Tulsa, showing tremendous power from a 6'6" frame and pushing his career minor league home run total to 69 over 330 games. He strikes out a ton and will need to seriously cut down on his swing and miss tendency, but he has the kind of power than will play and play well in the majors if he can get to it enough. His cannon arm offsets his so-so range in the outfield, and it will be interesting to see whether Peters can improve his approach enough to make an impact with the Dodgers. Lastly, 24 year old Errol Robinson, an Ole Miss product with a great name, slashed .247/.309/.353 with ten home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 104/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games with Tulsa, looking like a solid utility infield prospect at this point. The bat is a little bit too light to envision him starting, but he is competent enough at the plate and plays good enough defense all over the infield to stick on major league benches for a while.
High Minors Pitchers: RHP Dennis Santana, RHP Josh Sborz, RHP Dustin May, RHP Tony Gonsolin, RHP Mitchell White, RHP Yadier Alvarez, and RHP Marshall Kasowski
The Dodgers bring a ton of pitching to the table, especially in the high minors, where their army of right handers includes high ceiling arms, pitchability guys, and relievers. 22 year old Dennis Santana is a converted shortstop who posted a 2.54 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 65/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 49.2 innings at AA Tulsa and AAA Oklahoma City, also reaching the major leagues for one rough start at Coors Field. A shoulder injury cut his season short in June, but his mid 90's fastball and good slider combined with improving command give him enough in his arsenal to succeed in the majors today, and assuming health, his floor at this point is as an effective big league reliever. If he can return healthy in 2019 and improve his changeup, he has a real shot at becoming a mid-rotation starter. 25 year old Josh Sborz, who played high school baseball one town away from me in Virginia at the same time I was playing junior varsity, is just about major league ready after posting a 3.88 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 71/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 53.1 innings at Tulsa and Oklahoma City. He's purely a relief prospect but brings a mid 90's fastball and a good slider to the table while also adding a changeup, and while his command isn't pinpoint, it's good enough to where he won't just leave meatballs over the plate against major league hitters. He should be up and contributing in 2019. Now, 21 year old Dustin May is easily the top pitching prospect in the system, finishing up a 2018 where he posted a 3.39 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 122/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 132.2 innings between High A Rancho Cucamonga and Tulsa. The 6'6" Texan has the best combination of stuff and command in the system, bringing a low to mid 90's fastball that induces plenty of ground balls, a hard cutter that gives hitters a slightly different look, a big curveball, and a changeup. However, unlike most young, lanky fireballers with deep arsenals, he can actually command everything pretty well, and that enabled him to succeed with a 3.67 ERA and a 28/12 strikeout to walk ratio as a 20 year old in AA this past August. He'll need some more upper minors seasoning in 2019, but if everything breaks right, he has top of the rotation potential and will likely settle in as a mid-rotation starter even if everything doesn't break perfectly in his favor. Other pitching prospects such as Houston's Forrest Whitley, Philadelphia's Sixto Sanchez, and Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller may be more proven and more exciting, but May is in that second tier of pitching prospects just under the cream of the crop. 24 year old Tony Gonsolin dominated the minors statistically with a 10-2 record a, 2.60 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 155/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 innings at Rancho Cucamonga and Tulsa in 2018. The 6'2" Californian throws in the mid 90's and adds a full repertoire highlighted by a nasty splitter but also including a slider and a changeup, and while he lacks pinpoint command, it's tough to keep all of those pitches straight and he does. Look for Gonsolin to develop into a potential #4 starter. 24 year old Mitchell White, another California product (San Jose), followed up a breakout 2017 with a so-so 2018, posting a 4.53 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and an 88/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 105.1 innings at Tulsa, bringing a devastating mid 90's fastball/hard slider combination as well as a good curveball. He doesn't miss nearly as many bats as he should because his command isn't great and he tends to leave balls over the plate and get hit, so improving that command could shoot him up prospect rankings and make him a potential mid-rotation starter. However, if he doesn't (he is 24, for what it's worth), the stuff will play very well in the bullpen and he could become a high leverage reliever. 22 year old Yadier Alvarez is a very interesting prospect who posted a 4.23 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 62/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 55.1 innings between Tulsa and complex level rehab, showing premium stuff with no idea where it's going. The former bonus baby who signed out of Cuba for $16 million as a 19 year old in 2015 sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and has touched 101 in short stints, adding a great slider to miss bats. However, he has struggled with command and a groin strain in 2018 certainly didn't help, and if he can't figure out how to at least guide the ball to one part of the strike zone or another (or learn how to throw a changeup), he is probably best suited in relief. There, his control problems will be masked by the fact that he'll flirt with 100 MPH and sharpen his slider even further, but his upside is so high as a starter that the Dodgers will do everything they can to keep him in the rotation. Lastly, 23 year old Marshall Kasowski had a great season in 2018 by posting a 2.09 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 111/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 64.2 innings at Class A Great Lakes, Rancho Cucamonga, and Tulsa, just with his sheer mid 90's velocity and high release point. His secondary stuff needs work and he's a relief-only prospect at this point, but it's hard to argue with a 42.5% strikeout rate across three levels. If the high strikeout rate isn't enough to get you interested, he survived a near-fatal car accident while in college at the University of Houston and worked his way back after transferring to West Texas A&M outside of Amarillo.
Low and Mid Minors Hitters: OF Jeren Kendall, C Connor Wong, 2B Jeter Downs, OF Starling Heredia, and C Diego Cartaya
The Dodgers aren't as deep in the low minors as they are in the upper levels when it comes to hitters, with most of the guys down there looking more like wild cards than bona fide prospects, though this group could produce some real value when it's all said and done. 22 year old Jeren Kendall had a disappointing season where he slashed .215/.300/.356 with 12 home runs, 37 stolen bases, and a 158/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at High A Rancho Cucamonga, which is already a hitter-friendly context. His strengths, namely speed and outfield defense, are very apparent, as is his main weaknesses, contact. He strikes out so much (32% in 2018) that he struggles to get to what could be above average raw power in time, though fortunately his decently high walk rate (10.5%) is enough to keep him afloat for now. Kendall's defense and draft stock (first rounder, 23rd overall out of Vanderbilt in 2017) will buy his bat plenty of time, but if he doesn't start making contact soon, he'll be a first round bust. 22 year old Connor Wong, taken two rounds after Kendall in the 2017 draft out of Houston (third round, 100th overall), has gotten off to the hotter start and slashed .269/.350/.480 with 19 home runs, six stolen bases, and a 138/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 102 games at Rancho Cucamonga. Wong, like Will Smith (referenced in upper minors hitters section), is an athletic catcher who could also play the infield in a pinch, though his behind-the-plate defense is a bit behind Smith's. Wong has an average bat that produces average power and could use a little work when it comes to plate discipline, but for a catcher, that will play. He more likely has a back-up catcher or even super utility future, though improvement in the plate discipline department could improve his chances of starting one day. 20 year old Jeter Downs, acquired from the Reds in the crazy Yasiel Puig/Matt Kemp trade, is probably the best prospect in this section after slashing .257/.351/.402 with 13 home runs, 37 stolen bases, and a 103/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at Class A. He was also a member of that 2017 draft (competitive balance round, 32nd overall out of a Miami area high school) and while none of his tools stand out, he also doesn't really have any weaknesses. He shows average power and average contact ability but adds to his offensive profile with good plate discipline, and he makes up for his average infield defense with a grinder attitude, so while second base looks like his most likely long-term home, he'll make it as difficult as he can for the Dodgers to keep him off shortstop. His upside is that of a starting second baseman, though I find it unlikely that he'll end up a true impact bat. 19 year old Starling Heredia was signed out of the Dominican Republic for $2.6 million in 2015 but aside from glimpses in the rookie level Pioneer League in 2017, he hasn't lived up to his billing. In 2018, he slashed .192/.260/.332 with seven home runs and a 92/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games, mostly at Class A Great Lakes, struggling to get to his big raw power much at all. He was young for the Midwest League but not crazy young, and he'll need more time their in 2019 to hone his approach. His upside remains very high, though the risk is just as high and he has a lot of work to do to reach that ceiling. Lastly, 17 year old Diego Cartaya is yet to step on a minor league field, but the Venezuelan catcher signed for $2.5 million and gives the Dodgers yet another potential starting catcher down on the farm. He's unremarkable but competent as a hitter, and when you're a plus defensive catcher like he is, competence is all you need at the plate. That good defense will give the bat plenty of time to develop, and as a kid who will spend the whole 2019 season at 17 years old, anything could happen with the bat.
Low and Mid Minors Pitchers: RHP Edwin Uceta, RHP Gerardo Carrillo, RHP Josiah Gray, LHP John Rooney, and RHP Braydon Fisher
As with the hitters, the Dodgers have more exciting talent up near the majors ,but there is more upside in the low minors in terms of pitching than there is in terms of hitting. 21 year old Edwin Uceta finds himself right in the middle of the minor league rung, having posted a 3.89 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 131/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 120.1 innings at Class A Great Lakes and High A Rancho Cucamonga, though he showed much better at the lower level (3.25 ERA, 103/27 K/BB) than at the higher one (6.97 ERA, 28/12 K/BB). Uceta is six feet tall and listed at just 155 pounds, but the small right hander brings pretty good control of pretty good stuff to the table with a low 90's fastball, a decent curveball, and an advanced changeup. That combination of stuff and command proved to be too much for Class A hitters, and while High A hitters had an easier time putting it in play, just a little sharpening of that command should help him pass the level. While his small frame could lead to durability issues, he tossed 120.1 regular season innings in 2018 and added 5.2 shutout innings in his lone postseason start in High A (which would have brought his ERA down from 6.97 to 5.47). How he handles another full season, as well as tougher competition, in 2019 will be very telling as to where the 21 year old's future lies, with his current ceiling looking like a #3 or #4 starter. 20 year old Gerardo Carrillo is another little righty coming in at the same height and weight as Uceta, and he posted a 1.50 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 50/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 innings at Great Lakes and complex ball. His stuff is actually better than Uceta's, with a low to mid 90's fastball, a good curveball, and a good changeup, though both Uceta's command and durability are a bit more proven than Carrillo's at this point. His future is even tougher to predict than Uceta's, but his upside is arguably higher and a very possible breakout season in 2019 could push him way up the Dodgers' prospect rankings, assuming health. 21 year old Josiah Gray, over from the Reds with Jeter Downs in the Yasiel Puig trade, posted a 2.58 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and a 59/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.1 innings in rookie ball after being drafted in the competitive balance round (72nd overall) out of Le Moyne in 2018. He's actually very new to pitching after converting from shortstop in college, and his fresh arm produces low to mid 90's fastballs that pair nicely with a good slider. He's still learning the finer aspects of pitching, such as a changeup and good command, though his control is already coming along nicely and he was very young for a college junior anyways. There is still reliever risk if he can't develop that changeup, but Gray, like Carrillo, has breakout potential for 2019 if his command develops as hoped. 22 year old John Rooney was also a product of the 2018 draft (third round, 104th overall out of Hofstra), earning his draft status with a monster junior season (8-2, 1.23 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 108/27 K/BB in 95 IP). He followed that up with a 1.80 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 21/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 20 innings between complex ball and Great Lakes, adding 2.2 shutout innings in the Midwest League playoffs. Rooney is a 6'5" lefty and sits in the low 90's with his fastball, but his good slider and command, as well as his height, help both play up. He looks like a prototypical back-end starter at this point and could move fairly quickly in that capacity if his command holds up and he stays healthy. Lastly, the Dodgers took now-18 year old Braydon Fisher with their next pick in the 2018 draft, scooping him up out of a Houston area high school in the fourth round before he posted a 2.05 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 19/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 innings in complex ball. Fisher, who was young for his class with a July birthday, brings great pure stuff with a low 90's fastball and a good slider, and at 6'4" with a quick arm, he has plenty of projection. I really liked this pick on draft day and I think Fisher has the stuff and upside to profile as at least a mid-rotation starter if not a #2 guy at best. He has a lot of work to do in refining his delivery and getting more consistent with his control, but I really like the upside. He'll still be a teenager through mid-season 2020, so while he may not break out immediately, he's a name to track.
Showing posts with label Jeren Kendall. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jeren Kendall. Show all posts
Saturday, February 2, 2019
Wednesday, July 12, 2017
2017 Draft Review: Los Angeles Dodgers
First 5 rounds: Jeren Kendall (1-23), Morgan Cooper (2-62), Connor Wong (3-100), James Marinan (4-130), Riley Ottesen (5-160)
Also notable: Wills Montgomerie (6-190), Zach Pop (7-220), Rylan Bannon (8-250), Donovan Casey (20-610), Preston Grand Pre (24-730)
The Dodgers leaned college this year, taking just two high schoolers in the first 20 rounds and just five overall in 40 rounds. They also played the overslot/underslot game, going underslot in the second round as well as in rounds five through ten to be able to go well overslot in rounds one, four, and eleven. Even though they stuck with the college route, there are some exciting upside players here, most notably first rounder Jeren Kendall and fifth rounder Riley Ottesen.
1-23: CF Jeren Kendall (my rank: 13)
A candidate to go first overall coming into the season, Kendall saw his stock slip this year not because of a change in performance, but because of the lack thereof. Kendall profiles more like a high school prospect in that he has high upside with lots of tools, but also carries a lot of risk. He performed well at Vanderbilt in the tough SEC this year, slashing .307/.372/.556 with 15 home runs and 20 stolen bases, showing a quick, powerful swing as well as plus speed and a good arm. Because his speed also plays on defense, he actually has a chance for four plus tools, which is what caused scouts to consider him first overall in the first place, but he has one issue that could hurt him significantly: contact. Teams were hoping that he would improve his strikeout rate from his sophomore year (21.5%), but instead, it actually jumped to 25.1% this year, dwarfing his 8.1% walk rate. He was also a subpar performer in the Cape Cod League, slashing .216/.286/.333 over two years, exacerbating questions about how everything will play up. If the Dodgers can toy with his short swing to improve his contact rate, he could be an All Star. If not, he might just be a fourth outfielder who can do everything but put the bat on the ball. Kendall signed for just under $2.9 million, $194,800 above slot.
2-62: RHP Morgan Cooper (my rank: 69)
Cooper missed the 2015 season, which would have been his sophomore year at Texas, with Tommy John surgery, and his stuff didn't bounce back fully in 2016. However, it did in 2017, as the Longhorn ace went 6-3 with a 2.32 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 16 games (15 starts), striking out 110 batters in 89.1 innings. As a starter, he throws in the low to mid 90's, adding a slider and curveball with some good shape, as well as a changeup that has improved. He hasn't proven he has the durability to start for a full MLB season and he may end up as a reliever, but for now he has the upside of a #3 or #4 starter who can move fairly quickly. Cooper signed for $867,500, which is $150,700 below slot.
3-100: C Connor Wong (my rank: 87)
Wong doesn't quite fit the typical catcher mold, coming in at a skinny 5'10" and showing above average speed on the base paths. Still, he slashed .287/.379/.494 with 12 home runs at Houston this year, also seeing time in the infield in addition to behind the plate. He also performed well on the Cape last summer, slashing .313/.354/.442 over 41 games, and with his quick swing, I like his chances to reach the majors. He's not all that dissimilar to current Dodgers catcher Austin Barnes, as even if Wong doesn't show enough arm strength to stay behind the plate, he could play second base in LA. He signed for $547,500, which is $10,400 over slot.
4-130: RHP James Marinan (my rank: 81)
Marinan was a pop-up prospect this year, coming out throwing in the low to mid 90's from a projectable 6'5" frame, though he hasn't proven that his secondaries are anything special. The south Florida high schooler has hit 96 on the gun, his slider is sharp at times, and he has a high ceiling as a #2 starter. The lack of a track record and proven secondary offerings though make him a risky pick. Marinan signed for $822,500, which is $421,500 above slot.
5-160: RHP Riley Ottesen (my rank: 147)
Ottesen started college at Utah two years late due to his Mormon mission in Japan, then wasn't anything special as a draft-eligible freshman in 2016 (2-2, 6.38 ERA, 1.56 WHIP). He took a step forward in 2017, and although he didn't dominate, he went 5-4 with a 4.93 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP, striking out 72 and walking 33 in 95 innings. He can hit the mid 90's with his fastball and his secondary offerings are coming along, but he turns 23 in October and hasn't really put up any inspiring numbers in the Pac-12. He's likely a future reliever, and the Dodgers have a track record of turning random guys into successful MLB relief pitchers (Kenley Jansen, Grant Dayton). Ottesen signed for $197,500, which is $101,800 below slot.
7-220: RHP Zach Pop (my rank: 135)
Pop is an interesting college arm, standing 6'4" and coming from the University of Kentucky. Pop was decent this year, putting up a 3.48 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP while striking out 20 in 20.2 innings out of the Wildcats bullpen, but it's the stuff that scouts love. Pop can run his fastball into the upper 90's with a hard, if at times loopy, slider. If the Dodgers can tighten up that slider and get it more consistent, he'll easily have two major league pitches to use out of the LA bullpen. His problem, however, is command. He throws with a high effort delivery, and his three quarters arm slot is difficult to repeat, and it led to him walking 14 batters in those 20.2 innings this year. Best case scenario, the Dodgers get a set-up man in the seventh round. Worst case scenario, Pop never reaches the majors and walks everybody he faces. He signed for $147,500, which is $34,700 below slot.
Others: 6th rounder Wills Montgomerie comes from UConn, where he had a successful three year career as a starter (15-8, 3.60 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) despite being overshadowed by Anthony Kay and Tim Cate in that Husky rotation. A Cape performer (2-2, 1.71 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 28/10 K/BB), he has inconsistent fastball velocity that can reach 95 at times, but also sometimes sits closer to 90. With a decent slider and inconsistent command, he's probably best off in the bullpen, where he could race Ottesen and Pop to the majors. 8th rounder Rylan Bannon had a breakout year at Xavier this year, slashing .339/.449/.633 with 15 home runs and 17 stolen bases in 61 games, and he's a pretty good infield defender as well. He played third base for the Musketeers, but he may also fit well at second base, his high school position, and projects as a utility man going forward. He signed for $122,500, which is $28,900 below slot. He has also gotten off to a hot start in the Pioneer League, slashing .438/.471/.781 through eight games for Rookie level Ogden. 20th rounder Donovan Casey probably won't sign and will instead return to Boston College for his senior year, where the two-way star could build on one or both of his skillsets. He was considered a better prospect as a hitter this year despite slashing just .286/.370/.362 with two home runs, as he shows above average raw power in batting practice with good whipping action on the barrel. His power has never translated into games, though, as he has difficulty with contact and with squaring the ball up. As a pitcher, he went 5-2 with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP out of the bullpen, and he could wind up drafted as a pitcher next year. 24th rounder Preston Grand Pre isn't the most exciting prospect on this list, but he has one of the top baseball names in the draft and slashed .325/.400/.425 for Cal this year. He shows little to no power as well as little ability to draw a walk (6.5%), but he has good enough bat to ball skills and will try to work his way up as a light hitting utility man.
Also notable: Wills Montgomerie (6-190), Zach Pop (7-220), Rylan Bannon (8-250), Donovan Casey (20-610), Preston Grand Pre (24-730)
The Dodgers leaned college this year, taking just two high schoolers in the first 20 rounds and just five overall in 40 rounds. They also played the overslot/underslot game, going underslot in the second round as well as in rounds five through ten to be able to go well overslot in rounds one, four, and eleven. Even though they stuck with the college route, there are some exciting upside players here, most notably first rounder Jeren Kendall and fifth rounder Riley Ottesen.
1-23: CF Jeren Kendall (my rank: 13)
A candidate to go first overall coming into the season, Kendall saw his stock slip this year not because of a change in performance, but because of the lack thereof. Kendall profiles more like a high school prospect in that he has high upside with lots of tools, but also carries a lot of risk. He performed well at Vanderbilt in the tough SEC this year, slashing .307/.372/.556 with 15 home runs and 20 stolen bases, showing a quick, powerful swing as well as plus speed and a good arm. Because his speed also plays on defense, he actually has a chance for four plus tools, which is what caused scouts to consider him first overall in the first place, but he has one issue that could hurt him significantly: contact. Teams were hoping that he would improve his strikeout rate from his sophomore year (21.5%), but instead, it actually jumped to 25.1% this year, dwarfing his 8.1% walk rate. He was also a subpar performer in the Cape Cod League, slashing .216/.286/.333 over two years, exacerbating questions about how everything will play up. If the Dodgers can toy with his short swing to improve his contact rate, he could be an All Star. If not, he might just be a fourth outfielder who can do everything but put the bat on the ball. Kendall signed for just under $2.9 million, $194,800 above slot.
2-62: RHP Morgan Cooper (my rank: 69)
Cooper missed the 2015 season, which would have been his sophomore year at Texas, with Tommy John surgery, and his stuff didn't bounce back fully in 2016. However, it did in 2017, as the Longhorn ace went 6-3 with a 2.32 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 16 games (15 starts), striking out 110 batters in 89.1 innings. As a starter, he throws in the low to mid 90's, adding a slider and curveball with some good shape, as well as a changeup that has improved. He hasn't proven he has the durability to start for a full MLB season and he may end up as a reliever, but for now he has the upside of a #3 or #4 starter who can move fairly quickly. Cooper signed for $867,500, which is $150,700 below slot.
3-100: C Connor Wong (my rank: 87)
Wong doesn't quite fit the typical catcher mold, coming in at a skinny 5'10" and showing above average speed on the base paths. Still, he slashed .287/.379/.494 with 12 home runs at Houston this year, also seeing time in the infield in addition to behind the plate. He also performed well on the Cape last summer, slashing .313/.354/.442 over 41 games, and with his quick swing, I like his chances to reach the majors. He's not all that dissimilar to current Dodgers catcher Austin Barnes, as even if Wong doesn't show enough arm strength to stay behind the plate, he could play second base in LA. He signed for $547,500, which is $10,400 over slot.
4-130: RHP James Marinan (my rank: 81)
Marinan was a pop-up prospect this year, coming out throwing in the low to mid 90's from a projectable 6'5" frame, though he hasn't proven that his secondaries are anything special. The south Florida high schooler has hit 96 on the gun, his slider is sharp at times, and he has a high ceiling as a #2 starter. The lack of a track record and proven secondary offerings though make him a risky pick. Marinan signed for $822,500, which is $421,500 above slot.
5-160: RHP Riley Ottesen (my rank: 147)
Ottesen started college at Utah two years late due to his Mormon mission in Japan, then wasn't anything special as a draft-eligible freshman in 2016 (2-2, 6.38 ERA, 1.56 WHIP). He took a step forward in 2017, and although he didn't dominate, he went 5-4 with a 4.93 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP, striking out 72 and walking 33 in 95 innings. He can hit the mid 90's with his fastball and his secondary offerings are coming along, but he turns 23 in October and hasn't really put up any inspiring numbers in the Pac-12. He's likely a future reliever, and the Dodgers have a track record of turning random guys into successful MLB relief pitchers (Kenley Jansen, Grant Dayton). Ottesen signed for $197,500, which is $101,800 below slot.
7-220: RHP Zach Pop (my rank: 135)
Pop is an interesting college arm, standing 6'4" and coming from the University of Kentucky. Pop was decent this year, putting up a 3.48 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP while striking out 20 in 20.2 innings out of the Wildcats bullpen, but it's the stuff that scouts love. Pop can run his fastball into the upper 90's with a hard, if at times loopy, slider. If the Dodgers can tighten up that slider and get it more consistent, he'll easily have two major league pitches to use out of the LA bullpen. His problem, however, is command. He throws with a high effort delivery, and his three quarters arm slot is difficult to repeat, and it led to him walking 14 batters in those 20.2 innings this year. Best case scenario, the Dodgers get a set-up man in the seventh round. Worst case scenario, Pop never reaches the majors and walks everybody he faces. He signed for $147,500, which is $34,700 below slot.
Others: 6th rounder Wills Montgomerie comes from UConn, where he had a successful three year career as a starter (15-8, 3.60 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) despite being overshadowed by Anthony Kay and Tim Cate in that Husky rotation. A Cape performer (2-2, 1.71 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 28/10 K/BB), he has inconsistent fastball velocity that can reach 95 at times, but also sometimes sits closer to 90. With a decent slider and inconsistent command, he's probably best off in the bullpen, where he could race Ottesen and Pop to the majors. 8th rounder Rylan Bannon had a breakout year at Xavier this year, slashing .339/.449/.633 with 15 home runs and 17 stolen bases in 61 games, and he's a pretty good infield defender as well. He played third base for the Musketeers, but he may also fit well at second base, his high school position, and projects as a utility man going forward. He signed for $122,500, which is $28,900 below slot. He has also gotten off to a hot start in the Pioneer League, slashing .438/.471/.781 through eight games for Rookie level Ogden. 20th rounder Donovan Casey probably won't sign and will instead return to Boston College for his senior year, where the two-way star could build on one or both of his skillsets. He was considered a better prospect as a hitter this year despite slashing just .286/.370/.362 with two home runs, as he shows above average raw power in batting practice with good whipping action on the barrel. His power has never translated into games, though, as he has difficulty with contact and with squaring the ball up. As a pitcher, he went 5-2 with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP out of the bullpen, and he could wind up drafted as a pitcher next year. 24th rounder Preston Grand Pre isn't the most exciting prospect on this list, but he has one of the top baseball names in the draft and slashed .325/.400/.425 for Cal this year. He shows little to no power as well as little ability to draw a walk (6.5%), but he has good enough bat to ball skills and will try to work his way up as a light hitting utility man.
Saturday, June 10, 2017
2017 Draft Demographics: College Power Hitters
First Tier: Brendan McKay, Adam Haseley, Pavin Smith, Jeren Kendall
Second Tier: Jake Burger, Brent Rooker, Drew Ellis
Third Tier: J.J. Matijevic, Gavin Sheets, Greg Deichmann, Evan Skoug
Others: Matt Whatley, Kevin Smith, Daulton Varsho, Joe Dunand, J.J. Schwarz
It's no secret that teams covet power, and what better place to find it than on the proven grounds of the NCAA? These guys can hit the ball a mile, and they've at least been tested against higher level pitching, unlike their high school counterparts.
Tier I (McKay, Haseley, Smith, Kendall)
Brendan McKay the pitcher's alter ego, Brendan McKay the hitter, has a larger gap between his floor and ceiling, as could hit 20-30 home runs per season with on-base percentages approaching .400. He's not the most powerful hitter in this class, but his combination of power and hit is as good as anybody's. Adam Haseley and Pavin Smith may hit next to each other in the UVA lineup, but they are very different players (keep in mind that those draft previews are almost two months old). Neither strike out much at all, Smith even less so than Haseley, and Smith is generally thought of as having more power potential and being a more polished bat. However, Haseley gets the edge on defense, as he should be an average center fielder or an above average right fielder, while Smith is confined to first base. Personally, I'm a bigger fan of Haseley, because I think he has small issues with his swing that could be fixed easily, pay huge dividends, and ultimately lead to him being a better hitter than Smith, defense aside. Both project to go in the first half of the first round. Vanderbilt's Jeren Kendall is essentially a smaller, quicker Adam Haseley with much more swing and miss. Kendall is an even better defender than Haseley, as he will no doubt stick in center field and has the arm to match. He also has a quicker swing that generates the same amount of, if not more, power despite his smaller frame (he stands at just 5'10", 180 lbs). Though most of his game grades out as better than Haseley's, he has one major flaw that ultimately gives Haseley the edge in my book; while Haseley struck out in just 7.8% of his plate appearances, Kendall struck out at an alarming 24.7% rate. He is much less polished than Haseley, and his quick swing will need a lot of refinement to keep pro pitchers from blowing their stuff by him.
Tier II (Burger, Rooker, Ellis)
Jake Burger stands out as the clear leader in this tier, having put up a monster campaign for Missouri State (.333/.448/.663, 22 HR), albeit in a lighter conference that tends to inflate hitting numbers. He has a long swing that gives slightly higher strikeout rates than you'd like to see in a mid-major conference (12.1%), but he also walked in 14.1% of his plate appearances, which helps offset that. I also like that though his swing is long and unorthodox, he keeps it in the zone for a long time. On defense, he's nothing special at third base and may have to move to first base, though he is said to be working very hard to keep that from happening. He's a higher risk than the guys in Tier I, but provides just as much upside. Next up is Brent Rooker, whose 2017 statistics will keep any other stats in this article from being impressive. Despite playing in the SEC, college baseball's toughest conference to hit in, he put up video game numbers for Mississippi State, slashing .395/.498/.827 with 30 doubles, three triples, 23 home runs, and 18 stolen bases in 65 games. Keeping with the context that this was in the SEC against the likes of Vanderbilt, Florida, LSU, you name it, it may have been college baseball's greatest offensive season of the BBCOR era. Rooker generates his power from an extremely powerful right handed swing, one that reminds me of prep star Austin Beck, as he generates plus bat speed. So far, he sounds like a first overall pick, but let me temper that real quick. Rooker is a redshirt junior, and turns 23 in November, so he's a year older than the rest of the guys on this list (except Greg Deichmann in Tier III). Additionally, he struck out in 17.9% of his plate appearances this year (though he did walk in 15%), and he grades out as a slightly below average left fielder, so he doesn't provide much defensive value. In my opinion, the bat will carry him, and he could make teams look foolish if he falls out of the supplemental round. After Rooker, we have another big performer in Louisville's Drew Ellis, and while Rooker will make his numbers look rather pedestrian, they were pretty darn impressive. Playing in the ACC, college baseball's second toughest conference after the SEC, McKay's teammate slashed .362/.453/.695 with 17 home runs and a lower strikeout rate (14%) than Rooker. The redshirt sophomore, whose age is in line with the typical college junior and is therefore a year younger than Rooker, holds more defensive value than his Mississippi State counterpart as a competent third baseman. His swing is very different though, as he likes to keep his hands very close to his body and use his natural torque to generate power. His mechanics are fairly similar to Mike Trout's, but don't get too excited because Trout has significantly more bat speed and has a cleaner swing path, as Ellis' uppercut means he is in and out of the zone fairly quickly.
Tier III (Matijevic, Sheets, Deichmann, Skoug)
The top two hitters in this tier, Arizona's J.J. Matijevic and Wake Forest's Gavin Sheets, have fairly similar offensive outlooks but get to their power in different ways. Matijevic, whose name I have a much easier time trying to spell than I expected when I first saw it, has swing mechanics similar to prep hitter Brady McConnell in that they both contract and explode on pitches. Meanwhile, Sheets generates his big time power from his brute strength and powerful swing, which will need to be cleaned up to hit at the next level. While Matijevic's swing is more polished, Sheets has the more polished approach, crushing Matijevic in walk rate 15.7% to 8.4% and also holding the better strikeout rate at 11.8% to 13.8%. Both are limited to first base defensively, but Matijevic has one last plus in that he's arguably this class's strongest Cape Cod League performer, having slashed .349/.391/.507 with six home runs over 61 games in two seasons. Ultimately, this gives Matijevic the edge for me. Louisiana State's Greg Deichmann is another guy that's a little old for the class, having turned 22 in May, but there is a lot to like. He has a cleaner swing than Matijevic and Sheets, and slashed .322/.430/.614 with 19 home runs in a tough SEC. His 17.8% strikeout rate is a little high for a senior-aged player, but he's a polished hitter and reportedly is a strong leader. He's not a defensive whiz, but he can perform adequately in a corner outfield spot, unlike the previous two guys. Lastly, we have Evan Skoug, the TCU catcher with a lot to like and a lot to dislike. On the positive side, he has a very strong bat which caught fire in the second half, he's an extremely hard worker who gets plus marks for his makeup and leadership skills all around, and he's a catcher. On the negative side, he struggled immensely in the first half of the season, may have to move off catcher because of his so-so defensive skills, and he strikes out a ton, including a career high 29.8% in 2017. Out of the four, Deichmann is the best hitter, Skoug provides the most defensive value (as of now), and Matijevic and Sheets have the most projection at the plate.
Second Tier: Jake Burger, Brent Rooker, Drew Ellis
Third Tier: J.J. Matijevic, Gavin Sheets, Greg Deichmann, Evan Skoug
Others: Matt Whatley, Kevin Smith, Daulton Varsho, Joe Dunand, J.J. Schwarz
It's no secret that teams covet power, and what better place to find it than on the proven grounds of the NCAA? These guys can hit the ball a mile, and they've at least been tested against higher level pitching, unlike their high school counterparts.
Tier I (McKay, Haseley, Smith, Kendall)
Brendan McKay the pitcher's alter ego, Brendan McKay the hitter, has a larger gap between his floor and ceiling, as could hit 20-30 home runs per season with on-base percentages approaching .400. He's not the most powerful hitter in this class, but his combination of power and hit is as good as anybody's. Adam Haseley and Pavin Smith may hit next to each other in the UVA lineup, but they are very different players (keep in mind that those draft previews are almost two months old). Neither strike out much at all, Smith even less so than Haseley, and Smith is generally thought of as having more power potential and being a more polished bat. However, Haseley gets the edge on defense, as he should be an average center fielder or an above average right fielder, while Smith is confined to first base. Personally, I'm a bigger fan of Haseley, because I think he has small issues with his swing that could be fixed easily, pay huge dividends, and ultimately lead to him being a better hitter than Smith, defense aside. Both project to go in the first half of the first round. Vanderbilt's Jeren Kendall is essentially a smaller, quicker Adam Haseley with much more swing and miss. Kendall is an even better defender than Haseley, as he will no doubt stick in center field and has the arm to match. He also has a quicker swing that generates the same amount of, if not more, power despite his smaller frame (he stands at just 5'10", 180 lbs). Though most of his game grades out as better than Haseley's, he has one major flaw that ultimately gives Haseley the edge in my book; while Haseley struck out in just 7.8% of his plate appearances, Kendall struck out at an alarming 24.7% rate. He is much less polished than Haseley, and his quick swing will need a lot of refinement to keep pro pitchers from blowing their stuff by him.
Tier II (Burger, Rooker, Ellis)
Jake Burger stands out as the clear leader in this tier, having put up a monster campaign for Missouri State (.333/.448/.663, 22 HR), albeit in a lighter conference that tends to inflate hitting numbers. He has a long swing that gives slightly higher strikeout rates than you'd like to see in a mid-major conference (12.1%), but he also walked in 14.1% of his plate appearances, which helps offset that. I also like that though his swing is long and unorthodox, he keeps it in the zone for a long time. On defense, he's nothing special at third base and may have to move to first base, though he is said to be working very hard to keep that from happening. He's a higher risk than the guys in Tier I, but provides just as much upside. Next up is Brent Rooker, whose 2017 statistics will keep any other stats in this article from being impressive. Despite playing in the SEC, college baseball's toughest conference to hit in, he put up video game numbers for Mississippi State, slashing .395/.498/.827 with 30 doubles, three triples, 23 home runs, and 18 stolen bases in 65 games. Keeping with the context that this was in the SEC against the likes of Vanderbilt, Florida, LSU, you name it, it may have been college baseball's greatest offensive season of the BBCOR era. Rooker generates his power from an extremely powerful right handed swing, one that reminds me of prep star Austin Beck, as he generates plus bat speed. So far, he sounds like a first overall pick, but let me temper that real quick. Rooker is a redshirt junior, and turns 23 in November, so he's a year older than the rest of the guys on this list (except Greg Deichmann in Tier III). Additionally, he struck out in 17.9% of his plate appearances this year (though he did walk in 15%), and he grades out as a slightly below average left fielder, so he doesn't provide much defensive value. In my opinion, the bat will carry him, and he could make teams look foolish if he falls out of the supplemental round. After Rooker, we have another big performer in Louisville's Drew Ellis, and while Rooker will make his numbers look rather pedestrian, they were pretty darn impressive. Playing in the ACC, college baseball's second toughest conference after the SEC, McKay's teammate slashed .362/.453/.695 with 17 home runs and a lower strikeout rate (14%) than Rooker. The redshirt sophomore, whose age is in line with the typical college junior and is therefore a year younger than Rooker, holds more defensive value than his Mississippi State counterpart as a competent third baseman. His swing is very different though, as he likes to keep his hands very close to his body and use his natural torque to generate power. His mechanics are fairly similar to Mike Trout's, but don't get too excited because Trout has significantly more bat speed and has a cleaner swing path, as Ellis' uppercut means he is in and out of the zone fairly quickly.
Tier III (Matijevic, Sheets, Deichmann, Skoug)
The top two hitters in this tier, Arizona's J.J. Matijevic and Wake Forest's Gavin Sheets, have fairly similar offensive outlooks but get to their power in different ways. Matijevic, whose name I have a much easier time trying to spell than I expected when I first saw it, has swing mechanics similar to prep hitter Brady McConnell in that they both contract and explode on pitches. Meanwhile, Sheets generates his big time power from his brute strength and powerful swing, which will need to be cleaned up to hit at the next level. While Matijevic's swing is more polished, Sheets has the more polished approach, crushing Matijevic in walk rate 15.7% to 8.4% and also holding the better strikeout rate at 11.8% to 13.8%. Both are limited to first base defensively, but Matijevic has one last plus in that he's arguably this class's strongest Cape Cod League performer, having slashed .349/.391/.507 with six home runs over 61 games in two seasons. Ultimately, this gives Matijevic the edge for me. Louisiana State's Greg Deichmann is another guy that's a little old for the class, having turned 22 in May, but there is a lot to like. He has a cleaner swing than Matijevic and Sheets, and slashed .322/.430/.614 with 19 home runs in a tough SEC. His 17.8% strikeout rate is a little high for a senior-aged player, but he's a polished hitter and reportedly is a strong leader. He's not a defensive whiz, but he can perform adequately in a corner outfield spot, unlike the previous two guys. Lastly, we have Evan Skoug, the TCU catcher with a lot to like and a lot to dislike. On the positive side, he has a very strong bat which caught fire in the second half, he's an extremely hard worker who gets plus marks for his makeup and leadership skills all around, and he's a catcher. On the negative side, he struggled immensely in the first half of the season, may have to move off catcher because of his so-so defensive skills, and he strikes out a ton, including a career high 29.8% in 2017. Out of the four, Deichmann is the best hitter, Skoug provides the most defensive value (as of now), and Matijevic and Sheets have the most projection at the plate.
Sunday, May 7, 2017
2017 Draft Preview: Jeren Kendall
OF Jeren Kendall (Vanderbilt): 5'10", 180 lbs, born 2/4/1996
Overview
Hit: 50. Power: 50. Run: 70. Throw: 55. Field: 60.
When you hear high-risk, high-reward, you typically think of high schoolers, but that label applies very well to Vanderbilt outfielder Jeren Kendall. He has put up big college numbers against top pitching in the SEC, slashing .308/.391/.557 over his college career as of May 7th, but there is continued skepticism over his ability to hit at the higher levels. If he does maximize his tools, he has the upside of a Jacoby Ellsbury/Grady Sizemore type player. Coming into the season, he was seen as a top-five pick after slashing .332/.396/.568 and stealing 28 bases as a sophomore, with early mock drafts placing him as high as #2 to the Reds, but an up and down spring has damaged his stock a tad. Still, with a .302/.382/.568 and 16 stolen bases so far in 2017, he is considered a front half of the first round pick.
Strengths
Kendall is an athlete. His speed stands out the most, having stolen 63 bases in 79 attempts (79.7% success rate), including 16 of 20 this season (80%). His speed also helps him on defense, where he grades out as a plus defender and should have no problem sticking in center field. He also does have that strong track record of offensive performance in the SEC, and his .266 ISO this season is an improvement on his .236 last season. His strong wrists snap the bat through the zone, generating power with a quick, simple swing.
Weaknesses
Despite all the tools and even all the performance, whether he will be able to maintain that high level of performance at the next level is up for debate. Kendall has a lot of swing and miss in his game, and after he posted K/BB ratios of 60/21 as a freshman and 62/25 as a sophomore, there was hopes that he would improve that ratio in 2017. However, unlike other college hitters like Keston Hiura, Jake Burger, and Adam Haseley, he has been unable to do so, putting up a 55/23 ratio so far. His strikeout rate has actually increased from 23.6% as a freshman/sophomore to 24.8% as a junior, though his 10.4% walk rate is a career best. I stated in the strengths section that he has a quick, simple swing, but because he simply throws his hands at the ball and snaps his wrists through, his barrel often isn't in the zone for long, contributing to his swing and miss tendencies. Whether pro coaching can help him fix those issues is yet to be seen.
Overview
Hit: 50. Power: 50. Run: 70. Throw: 55. Field: 60.
When you hear high-risk, high-reward, you typically think of high schoolers, but that label applies very well to Vanderbilt outfielder Jeren Kendall. He has put up big college numbers against top pitching in the SEC, slashing .308/.391/.557 over his college career as of May 7th, but there is continued skepticism over his ability to hit at the higher levels. If he does maximize his tools, he has the upside of a Jacoby Ellsbury/Grady Sizemore type player. Coming into the season, he was seen as a top-five pick after slashing .332/.396/.568 and stealing 28 bases as a sophomore, with early mock drafts placing him as high as #2 to the Reds, but an up and down spring has damaged his stock a tad. Still, with a .302/.382/.568 and 16 stolen bases so far in 2017, he is considered a front half of the first round pick.
Strengths
Kendall is an athlete. His speed stands out the most, having stolen 63 bases in 79 attempts (79.7% success rate), including 16 of 20 this season (80%). His speed also helps him on defense, where he grades out as a plus defender and should have no problem sticking in center field. He also does have that strong track record of offensive performance in the SEC, and his .266 ISO this season is an improvement on his .236 last season. His strong wrists snap the bat through the zone, generating power with a quick, simple swing.
Weaknesses
Despite all the tools and even all the performance, whether he will be able to maintain that high level of performance at the next level is up for debate. Kendall has a lot of swing and miss in his game, and after he posted K/BB ratios of 60/21 as a freshman and 62/25 as a sophomore, there was hopes that he would improve that ratio in 2017. However, unlike other college hitters like Keston Hiura, Jake Burger, and Adam Haseley, he has been unable to do so, putting up a 55/23 ratio so far. His strikeout rate has actually increased from 23.6% as a freshman/sophomore to 24.8% as a junior, though his 10.4% walk rate is a career best. I stated in the strengths section that he has a quick, simple swing, but because he simply throws his hands at the ball and snaps his wrists through, his barrel often isn't in the zone for long, contributing to his swing and miss tendencies. Whether pro coaching can help him fix those issues is yet to be seen.
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