Man, if only the Pirates hadn't acquired less for Gerrit Cole, one of the best pitchers in the game, than they traded away for Chris Archer, a solid #4 starter. Even looking just specifically at the minor leagues, losing out on Shane Baz hurts, and the fact that highly touted draft picks like Steven Jennings, Braxton Ashcraft, and Conner Uselton have yet to really get it going hurts in the depth department. There are some really interesting guys, like Mitch Keller, Oneil Cruz, Ke'Bryan Hayes, and Travis Swaggerty, but overall I'm really underwhelmed by this system and I don't think they've drafted particularly well at all recently (though I do like Quinn Priester a lot). On the bright side, breakouts from Cody Bolton, Mason Martin, and Lolo Sanchez help a lot, and now the Pirates would like to see guys like Swaggerty, Ashcraft, and Santiago Florez do the same.
Affiliates: AAA Indianapolis Indians, AA Altoona Curve, High A Bradenton Marauders, Class A Greensboro Grasshoppers, short season West Virginia Black Bears, rookie level Bristol Pirates, complex level GCL and DSL Pirates
Catcher
- Jason Delay (2020 Age: 25): Despite drafting three well known college catchers in the top five rounds of the 2017 and 2018 drafts, the Pirates have very little in the way of future major league talent behind the plate. Delay, a fourth round pick out of Vanderbilt in 2017, is probably the most likely of the group to reach the majors after he slashed .234/.286/.398 with eight home runs and a 63/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games at AA Altoona. He's absolutely a glove-first guy, as he's good enough defensively to start every day in the majors right now and brings all the intangibles you need in a catcher. However, he'll never hit enough to start. Whether he hits enough to actually get to the majors at all is still up in the air, as he has some pop from the right side but not a lot and he doesn't have great on-base skills. The best case scenario here is probably something of a Jeff Mathis profile.
- Keep an eye on: Deon Stafford, Grant Koch
Corner Infield
- Ke'Bryan Hayes (2020 Age: 23): Hayes was a late first round pick out of a Houston-area high school in 2015 and he's moved up through the Pirates system one level at a time, finally reaching AAA in 2019 and slashing .261/.334/.411 with ten home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 92/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games, 110 of which were with Indianapolis. He's hit over power, with the knack for finding the barrel and hitting lots of balls to the gaps and quite a few over the fence. He'll probably always be more of a doubles hitter than a home run guy, as evidenced by his 62 doubles and 17 home runs over the past two seasons and the fact that he's physically mature at 6'1", and his strong plate discipline will help him be a doubles machine at the next level. In fact, his stats from Indianapolis this year might be a fair projection of what he'll do in the majors, maybe with a few more home runs to get him up to 15-20 annually. He's a defensive whiz at third base, which means the pressure is off his bat, not that he needs it off.
- Will Craig (2020 Age: 25): Craig is a very different prospect than Hayes, but the two still share a lot in common. Craig was drafted in the first round out of Wake Forest in 2016 and has moved a level at a time after skipping Class A, and in 2019 he slashed .249/.326/.435 with 23 home runs and a 146/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at AAA Indianapolis. He's a power hitter at 6'3" and has increased his home run totals each year in the minors, though I can't say fully confidently that he'll get to it a ton at the major league level. He's a talented hitter who may be able to make it work up there, but he's also limited defensively to first base so he'll have to hit. I see kind of a borderline starter, one who hits 15-20 home runs annually but who may struggle in the on-base department.
- Mason Martin (2020 Age: 20-21): Here's an interesting one. Martin was a 17th round pick out of a high school in southeastern Washington in 2017, and he struggled significantly with contact in 2018 by striking out in 35.8% of his plate appearances in Class A and in 32.3% once he was dropped to rookie ball. This year was a different story; he crushed 35 home runs while slashing .254/.351/.558 with a 168/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at Class A Greensboro and High A Bradenton, which meant a 29% strikeout rate at Class A and a 32.3% rate after the promotion to High A. That's still high, but he shortened his left handed swing in 2019 and that enabled him to get to his big time raw power significantly more often, and he led all minor leaguers with 129 RBI, way ahead of a second place tie at 107. Like Craig, he's limited to first base, but the trajectory is up here and Martin could be a real power threat at the major league level in a few years. Strikeouts will continue to be an issue but he doesn't turn 21 until June, so he has time.
- Dylan Busby (2020 Age: 24): I don't envision Busby ever becoming a full time starter for the Pirates at first base, as Mason Martin has more upside and Will Craig is a more advanced hitter at the same age, but his big time power could push him up the ladder in a bench role. In 2019, he slashed .213/.316/.453 with 22 home runs and a 158/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at High A Bradenton, with home runs and strikeouts (36.4% rate on the latter) being his calling card. He's 6'2" and generates his power from his long arms and naturally whippy swing, which should help it play up. However, he has serious swing and miss concerns and he's three and a half years older than Martin, so I'm not sure he'll ever fully put them behind him, and his best outlook is likely as a bench bat/pinch hitter with power.
- Keep an eye on: Jared Triolo
Middle Infield
- Kevin Kramer (2020 Age: 26): Yes, Pirates fans, Kevin Kramer is still technically a prospect. After slashing .135/.175/.135 in 21 major league games in 2018, he slightly improved that line to .167/.260/.190 in 22 major league games in 2019, though he spent the majority of his season at AAA Indianapolis and slashed .260/.335/.417 with ten home runs and a 116/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games. He's a pretty average player across the board, showing some power from time to time while also doing a pretty decent job of getting on base and keeping his strikeouts down, which should help him eventually adjust to major league pitching and improve that .152/.222/.165 career line. He's spent time at second and third base and will likely continue to do so in the majors, where he likely won't ever start regularly unless the Pirates try to tank and sell off guys like Colin Moran. He could also see time in the outfield in the likely case that Starling Marte ends up traded, and Kramer's offensive profile probably has him around ten home runs annually with middling on-base percentages.
- Oneil Cruz (2020 Age: 21): Here's the exciting one. Cruz was acquired from the Dodgers for Tony Watson in 2017 and has developed into one of the systems beset prospects, and in 2019 he slashed .298/.356/.475 with eight home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 74/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 games, mostly at High A Bradenton and AA Altoona. He's an absolute beanstalk, listed a 6'7" and 175 pounds, but he's a surprisingly competent hitter who has improved his hit tool and who finds the barrel regularly because he doesn't sell out for his power. There may be some who actually wish he would do so, as he could hit 30+ home runs annually if he did without sacrificing that feel for the barrel, though I think he's better off staying true to himself as a hitter and letting that power develop naturally as he thickens up and improves his pitch recognition. Defensively, he's managed to stick at shortstop so far despite his height, as he has a plus-plus arm, though he may have to move to third base or the outfield eventually. Overall, nobody in this system has a higher ceiling.
- Robbie Glendinning (2020 Age: 24): Raise your hand if you saw this one coming. Robbie Glendinning, an Australia native and 21st round pick out of Missouri in 2017 who slashed an unremarkable .268/.360/.381 in 59 games in 2018, had a huge breakout this year. Starting at High A Bradenton, he slashed .340/.393/.599 with eight home runs and a 50/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games, forcing a quick promotion to AA Altoona, where he cooled off a bit but still slashed .261/.346/.391 with five home runs and a 65/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games against advanced pitching. While his power is mostly to the gaps, he was able to find his home run stroke 13 times in 2019 and impact the ball consistently, and now he has a chance to compete with Kevin Kramer and try to break into the majors as a utility infielder with gap power and feel for the barrel. I don't expect Glendinning to start regularly, but he's advanced enough to carve out a bench role soon.
- Ji-Hwan Bae (2020 Age: 20-21): Ugh. Bae is an extremely talented player, but he beat up his girlfriend last year and it's hard to write nice things about him. Bae signed for $1.25 million after having his contract with the Braves cancelled during the bonus-manipulation scandal, and he was suspended for 30 games in 2019 due to the assault. However, once he returned, he played very well, slashing .323/.403/.430 with no home runs but 31 stolen bases and a 77/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 86 games. Though he only turned 20 mid season, he showed great on-base ability with his contact-oriented approach and feel for the barrel. His swing is a bit similar to Ichiro's in that he often clears his body from the left handed batters box while starting towards first base, and that will likely keep him from providing much in the way of home run power. However, he finds the barrel consistently and can spray balls to the gaps, then uses his plus speed to get extra bases. Defensively, he has the tools to stick at shortstop, but he needs to refine his game there a bit. With some further development he could start at shortstop or second base for the Pirates down the line, but he'll be rightfully hard to root for as a convicted domestic abuser.
- Rodolfo Castro (2020 Age: 20-21): Castro is a bat-first second baseman who slashed .242/.298/.456 with 19 home runs and a 122/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at Class A Greensboro and High A Bradenton, though he was better at the lower level (.242/.306/.516) than the higher one (.243/.288/.391). Despite an aggressive approach, he's handled advanced pitching at a young age and still doesn't turn 21 until May, giving him plenty of time to iron out the holes in his swing and continue to develop both in the on-base and power departments as a switch hitter with a quick bat. Defensively, he's pretty unspectacular and may end up at second or third base, where he should be adequate but a bit below average. It's probably a bat-first utility infielder profile unless he really breaks out with that bat.
- Keep an eye on: Stephen Alemais, Connor Kaiser, Ethan Paul
Outfield
- Jason Martin (2020 Age: 24): One of the four players acquired in the ill-advised Gerrit Cole trade, and he reached the majors and slashed .250/.325/.306 in 20 games there this year. He spent most of the season at AAA Indianapolis, where he slashed .259/.312/.419 with eight home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 79/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 games. Despite standing only 5'9", he's a quality athlete with a little bit of power and good speed, though those who doubted him because of his height may turn out to be right as his bat looks like it lacks the thump to land him in a starting role. With his speed, he should be a solid left fielder who can handle center if needed, and that gives him a fourth outfielder projection.
- Travis Swaggerty (2020 Age: 22): Swaggerty capped off a very productive career at the University of South Alabama with a first round selection in the 2018 draft, though his numbers in his first full season were just adequate. In 121 games at High A Bradenton, he slashed .265/.347/.381 with nine home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 116/57 strikeout to walk ratio, though the Florida State League is known to be pitcher-friendly. Though he's just 5'11", he packs a lot of strength into his frame and should be able to hit 15-20 home runs annually at the major league level, if not more if he finds the barrel more. He also has good feel for the barrel and with his patient approach, he should be able to post good on-base percentages at the major league level, where he can use his speed to steal some bases. A good defender in center field, Swaggerty can impact the game in a lot of ways, though he'll need to prove just how much impact he can provide after an unspectacular run through High A. Age is on his side, as he was young for a college junior when he was drafted and he only turned 21 at the end of the minor league season, when he'd already played over 100 games at High A.
- Jared Oliva (2020 Age: 24): Oliva has been a consistently decent hitter throughout his time in the Pirates system and indeed even dating back to his time at Arizona, where he was a seventh round pick in 2017. In 2019, Oliva slashed .277/.352/.398 with six home runs, 36 stolen bases, and a 104/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games, standing out for his speed and his feel for the barrel. A great baserunner, he's now stolen 84 bases in 287 games as a pro, and he's been able to produce good gap power and a bit of home run power as he's moved up through the minors. I have a hard time pegging him as a starter due to the lack of real home run power as well as good-not-great defense that has kept him in center field for now, but his profile does fit really well as a fourth outfielder and I like him better for that role than Jason Martin.
- Cal Mitchell (2020 Age: 21): Mitchell has been a bit enigmatic as a prospect, looking like a potential first round pick for the 2017 draft before a rough senior season at his San Diego high school dropped him to the second round. He then hit well at Class A in 2018 (.280/.344/.427) and set himself up nicely at Bradenton this year, where he slashed .251/.304/.406 with 15 home runs and a 142/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games alongside Swaggerty in that Marauder outfield. His natural strength and feel for the barrel could help him hit 20 home runs annually in the majors, though his aggressive approach at the plate gives him some swing and miss and really limits his walks, so he'll have to continue to work to find better pitches to hit so he can get to his power. Defensively, he's just adequate in left field, so it's that 20 homer/decent on-base percentage upside that will carry him through the minors.
- Lolo Sanchez (2020 Age: 21): Kevin Sanchez, better known by his great nickname Lolo, tore it up at Class A Greensboro this year by slashing .301/.377/.451 with four home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 28/17 strikeout to walk ratio in 61 games before a promotion to High A Bradenton. He didn't hit nearly as well there, slashing just .196/.300/.270 with one home run, 13 stolen bases, and a 31/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games, but at least he maintained his great plate discipline. Sanchez is a contact hitter who rarely strikes out and draws his fair share of walks, then uses his speed on the bases. However he lacks a ton of impact with the bat, and he'll need to drive the ball more against advanced pitching if he wants to start at the major league level eventually. Defensively, he's good in center field and that takes some pressure off his bat.
- Matt Gorski (2020 Age: 22): The Pirates took Gorski out of Indiana with their second round pick in 2019, though I think that was a bit of an overdraft. Gorski is a great athlete who had a big sophomore season in 2018 before slumping a bit in 2019, then he slashed .223/.297/.346 with three home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 48/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games at short season West Virginia. He has some power at 6'4", though he hasn't tapped it consistently and it's mostly projection at this point. He also has speed and a strong arm, giving him all the physical tools he needs to succeed, though he might not have the best pure feel for the game and might not move as quickly as the typical college bat. It's kind of a boom/bust profile, which is more common in high school draftees.
- Sammy Siani (2020 Age: 18): The younger brother of Reds prospect Mike Siani, Sammy was drafted in the competitive balance round out of a Philadelphia high school in 2019. In his pro debut, he slashed .241/.372/.308 with a 41/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 39 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League, showing a patient approach and really smooth, uppercut swing that has yet to start producing real power. The Pirates believe that power will come, as he has very good feel for the barrel already and his swing is conducive to home runs, so we'll have to see how he handles his first full pro season. If all breaks right, he could hit 15-20 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages and decent outfield defense, though he comes with his share of risk.
- Keep an eye on: Bligh Madris, Chris Sharpe, Jonah Davis, Jack Herman, Blake Sabol, Matthew Fraizer, Conner Uselton
Starting Pitching
- Mitch Keller (2020 Age: 24): Keller was a second round pick out of a Cedar Rapids, Iowa high school in 2014, and he's dominated throughout his minor league career. In 2019, he posted a 3.56 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 123/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 103.2 innings at AAA Indianapolis, where he did well to shut down offenses despite the juiced baseballs. He didn't fare as well in his eleven major league starts, where he had a 7.13 ERA, a 1.83 WHIP, and a 65/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 innings, just barely staying below the rookie limits. He's a 6'2" righty who comfortably sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, adding a power curveball and a changeup, all of which he commands pretty well. His ability to control the strike zone, combined with his velocity, enabled his rise through the minors, and he still controlled the zone in the majors when he wasn't getting hit. He's certainly got the talent to succeed at the major league level, and once he settles in and learns to pitch to major league hitters, he should be a solid #2 or #3 starter.
- JT Brubaker (2020 Age: 26): Brubaker was a sixth round pick out of Akron in 2016 and was a fairly unremarkable prospect until 2018, when he broke out with a 2.81 ERA and a 131/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 154 innings at AA and AAA. Expectations were high for 2019, but he lasted just six starts, four of which were at AAA Indianapolis, and he posted a 2.28 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 24/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.2 innings before going down with elbow issues. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his diving fastball and adds a pair of good breaking balls, with his hard slider being the better one. Assuming health, the only thing holding him back from being an impact starter is a good changeup, as he doesn't have much of one, but he could still cut it as a #4/#5 guy without one, and he should be major league ready pretty early into 2020. He'd also make a good fastball/slider reliever.
- Cody Bolton (2020 Age: 21-22): A sixth round pick out of high school in Tracy, California in 2017, Bolton took a huge step forward this year with High A Bradenton, where he posted a 1.61 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and a 69/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 61.2 innings. He wasn't quite as good after a promotion to AA Altoona, where he had a 5.85 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 33/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 innings, but in all he established himself as one of the better arms in this system. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has sharpened his slider and improved his changeup, which helped make the difference for him this year. He also has above average command, and while he's not necessarily an ace, he now looks like he could be a really solid #3 starter with just a little further refinement of those secondaries.
- Aaron Shortridge (2020 Age: 22-23): Shortridge has had an up arrow next to his name for a few years, as he successfully transitioned from the bullpen to the rotation at Cal in 2018 and that led to being drafted in the fourth round that year, where he had a successful debut in short season ball (2.67 ERA, 38/7 K/BB). The Pirates bumped him up to High A Bradenton this year, where he posted a 3.25 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 104/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 135.2 innings. Standing 6'3", his best attribute is his command, as he rarely hurts himself with walks and can make his stuff play up by staying ahead in the count. That stuff is just decent, as he sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a mediocre curveball and changeup, and sharpening that secondary stuff just a little bit should help him work his way up as a back-end starter. If he has to move back to the bullpen, his stuff should tick up naturally and with his command, he'll be an effective reliever.
- Quinn Priester (2020 Age: 19): Cold weather high school pitchers tend to get less attention than their more developed counterparts in Florida, Texas, California, etc. that get to be outside much more often. Priester, however, used that to his advantage in the Chicago area, as he taught himself to pitch and used the cold weather to prove his toughness, looking sharp in his cold, windy, and rainy starts this past spring. The 6'3" righty went to the Pirates in the first round this year and posted a 3.19 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 41/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 36.2 innings in complex ball and one start at short season West Virginia. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a big, swing and miss curveball, as well as a solid changeup and command. He'll need further development, as is expected for a high school draftee, but he's a hard worker who really understands pitching, which should help him towards his ceiling of a #2 or #3 starter. He also may move quicker than the typical high school arm.
- Tahnaj Thomas (2020 Age: 20-21): Thomas, a product of the Bahamas, was acquired for Jordan Luplow last offseason and had a successful 2019, posting a 3.17 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 59/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 48.1 innings at rookie level Bristol. He's a great athlete and very projectable at 6'4", and his quick arm produces low to mid 90's fastballs and a slider ball with good depth. He's still refining his command but he's not necessarily wild, and he should be able to get to average or a tick above in that regard in time. He doesn't have much of a changeup at this point, so developing that will be key for him if he wants to remain a starter. He does profile well as a fastball/slider reliever, and that should be a good fallback for him.
- Braxton Ashcraft (2020 Age: 20): Ashcraft is the prototypical power Texas right hander, coming in at 6'5" and having been drafted in the second round in 2018 out of high school in Waco. He's yet to really get it going, and he posted a 5.77 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 39/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 innings at short season West Virginia, his lack of refinement as a pitcher doing him in against short season opponents. He sits fairly easily in the low 90's with his fastball, and he has a ton of projection and room to add more velocity with his athleticism. He also adds a good slider, but to this point, he's been hit harder than his stuff says that he should because he's still learning how to pitch rather than just throw. He's got the potential to be a mid rotation starter, but it'll take time and there's a lot of risk.
- Santiago Florez (2020 Age: 19-20): Florez is all projection at this point, but the Colombian teenager just looks like a pitcher. Reaching rookie level Bristol this year, he posted a 3.46 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 36/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 41.2 innings, an unremarkable stat line until you actually watch him pitch. Standing 6'5", he has an explosive right arm that pumps fastballs in the low to mid 90's and adds a big, looping curveball with great shape that he'll need to add some bite on. He still doesn't have much of a changeup or much command, so he comes with significant reliever risk, where he could develop into a back of the bullpen force with a little luck. He turns 20 in May and will be one to track.
- Keep an eye on: James Marvel, Pedro Vasquez, Max Kranick, Osvaldo Bido, Steven Jennings, Nicholas Economos
Relief Pitching
- Travis McGregor (2020 Age: 22): MacGregor is technically still a starter, but with significant work to do on his secondaries and all the injury trouble he's had, his most likely destination is the bullpen. The Pirates' second round pick in 2016 out of a Tampa-area high school, he had a breakout 2018 in which he posted a 3.18 ERA and an 80/22 strikeout to walk ratio but went down with Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2019. A 6'3" righty, he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and drops in a solid changeup, but his breaking ball is soft at this point and won't work if he wants to start in the higher levels. His stuff could tick up in shorter spurts and he'll be able to rely a bit more heavily on his hard fastball, though we of course need to see how he returns in a hopefully healthy 2020.
- J.C. Flowers (2020 Age: 21-22): Flowers was a two-way player at Florida State and served as FSU's closer, but the Pirates deployed him as a starter at short season West Virginia after drafting him in the fourth round this year. There, he had a 4.30 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 24/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 29.1 innings, not bad numbers for a converted reliever starting straight out in the New York-Penn League. He's very new to pitching and already sits in the low 90's while adding a solid slider and changeup, and the Pirates hope to develop him as a potential back-end starter with some untapped upside. If things don't work out, he has experience in the bullpen and could do well there, and the Pirates also have not ruled out transitioning him back to the outfield, where he has some speed and power.
- Keep an eye on: Luis Escobar, Montana DuRapau, Blake Cederlind
Showing posts with label Quinn Priester. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Quinn Priester. Show all posts
Friday, December 6, 2019
Wednesday, June 26, 2019
2019 Draft Review: Pittsburgh Pirates
First five rounds: Quinn Priester (1-18), Sammy Siani (CBA-37), Matt Gorski (2-57), Jared Triolo (CBB-72), Matt Fraizer (3-95), J.C. Flowers (4-124), Grant Ford (5-154)
Also notable: Blake Sabol (7-214), Ethan Paul (9-274)
The Pirates took a couple of high-upside high schoolers at the start of the draft, then took ten straight college players as they followed the general trend in this year's draft. Interestingly, all of the college players they took early on actually come with risk/reward profiles that are more similar to high schoolers, so it looks like they really targeted upside overall in this draft. Given that they had competitive balance picks in both the A and B rounds and therefore five of the first 95 picks, I actually find their draft class to be a bit light, but we'll see how these upside guys turn out down the road.
1-18: RHP Quinn Priester (Cary-Grove HS [IL], my rank: 20)
The Pirates seem to like high school pitchers, and they grabbed another in Quinn Priester. The Chicago-area native entered the spring looking more like a comp round or early second round pick, but he pitched extremely well despite the nasty Chicago weather and pushed himself up boards. Most high school pitchers are much more "thrower" than "pitcher," but Priester is very much the latter, as he reportedly taught himself to pitch by watching YouTube rather than using a pitching coach. The results of his efforts are a low to mid 90's fastball and a very good curveball with solid command, though his changeup is still coming along. Given how much progress he made on his own, it's very easy to envision him taking another step forward with pro instruction, especially on the changeup and command fronts, and he even seems like the guy who could add a slider down the road. At 6'3", Priester is very athletic and does a very good job of getting his legs into his delivery to create velocity, and all together he is one of the more "starterish" high school pitchers in this draft. Priester has work to do, but he has a high ceiling and his feel for the game will help him make the most of his talent. He signed for $3.4 million, which was $80,000 below slot and diverted him away from a TCU commitment.
CBB-37: OF Sammy Siani (Penn Charter HS [PA], my rank: 48)
Siani hails from Pennsylvania, but he's not exactly a hometown player because he comes from the other end of the state in Philadelphia. His older brother, Mike, is currently at Class A Dayton in the Reds organization, though Sammy beat him by 72 picks after Mike signed over slot as a fourth rounder in 2018. Sammy is only 5'11" but he uses his smooth, uppercut swing to generate average power despite his size, and that should grow as he fills out his frame. That power also comes with an advanced hit tool, as Siani can make consistent hard contact from the left side of the plate and could be an all-around contributor at the plate. He's pretty fast and while he probably won't stick in center field, he should be a solid right fielder that produces some positive value out there. Overall, he projects for 15-20 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages, though as a 5'11" high schooler, he comes with his share of risk. It took $2.15 million, or $150,000 over slot, to sign him away from a Duke commitment, then he picked up two hits in ten at bats while striking out four times in his first two games the complex level Gulf Coast League.
2-57: OF Matt Gorski (Indiana, my rank: 137)
As you can tell by my ranking, I find this to be a questionable pick. Despite being a college junior, Gorski actually comes more with the risk/reward profile of a high school player. After a big sophomore season where he slashed .356/.404/.554 at Indiana, he regressed this year and dropped to .271/.374/.498 with 12 home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 62/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. The Indianapolis native comes with plenty of tools, as he shows power and stole 57 bases over three years in Bloomington, also adding in a strong arm. However, his mechanics tend to break down at times and you have to question his feel for the game, as he regularly plays below his tools. He has a long swing and still needs to add some loft to it to get to his power more regularly, but the 6'4" slugger struck out in 23.7% of his plate appearances this year and his hit tool is fringy as is. Because he's 6'4" and has both power and speed, he still retains his high upside at 21 years old, but he'll need some work. At best, Gorski could hit 20-25 home runs per season with mediocre on-base percentages and solid outfield defense, but he comes with more risk than the typical college hitter. He signed for $1 million, which was $240,000 below slot, and has two hits in fourteen at bats with seven strikeouts over his first four games at short season West Virginia, adding three walks.
CBB-72: 3B Jared Triolo (Houston, unranked)
Triolo is a fairly average player all around, but he's interesting and has some upside. In 2019, he slashed .332/.420/.512 with seven home runs and a 30/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games for the University of Houston, and that came on the heels of a solid .276/.364/.423 run through the Cape Cod League. The Austin-area native shows good feel for the barrel to go along with strong plate discipline, though his power is slightly below average at this point because his swing is more geared towards line drives. His swing may be fine as is, and that would lead to solid on-base percentages along with ten or so home runs a season, but some adjustments could help him tap the power in his 6'3" frame and get him up to 15-20 home runs annually. He's a solid-average defender at third base, and overall he projects as a fringe-regular who may more likely end up as a part time starter at the major league level. However, if he takes well to mechanical changes, he has the hitting aptitude to turn himself into a solid regular. He signed for $868,200, or $2,500 below slot, and he's slashing .217/.269/.522 with a home run and a 4/2 strikeout to walk ratio through his first six games at West Virginia.
3-95: OF Matt Fraizer (Arizona, unranked)
The Arizona Wildcats may have finished fifth in a tough Pac-12 this year with just a 15-14 in-conference record, but in the third round of the draft, Matt Fraizer was already the third Wildcat hitter drafted after Cameron Cannon (#43, Red Sox) and Nick Quintana (#47, Tigers). Fraizer slashed just .266/.352/.359 as a sophomore in 2018 then dropped to .165/.240/.187 over 31 games on the Cape, but he came out of the gate a different hitter in 2019. In March, the Fresno, California native was slashing .412/.452/.565 with a home run and a 6/6 strikeout to walk ratio through 19 games, but he broke his hand and that marked the end of his season. The Pirates obviously liked what they saw in those 19 games, and they'll hope that the breakout was for real. Fraizer has a quick, line drive swing that can spray balls around the park, and at 6'3", he should be able to tap some power at the next level. He's also fast, allowing him to impact the game in yet another way, and that makes him a solid center fielder. Given Fraizer's lack of a track record, he comes with more risk than the typical college player, but he also has a high ceiling and this pick could turn into a steal if that breakout truly was for real. He signed for $525,500, which was $85,800 below slot.
4-124: RHP J.C. Flowers (Florida State, unranked)
Flowers was both Florida State's starting center fielder and its closer, and although he slashed .268/.374/.500 with eleven home runs as a hitter this year, the Pirates look like they prefer him as a pitcher. The Jacksonville native had actually never pitched at the collegiate level prior to this season, as he broke his jaw as a sophomore and decided to take to pitching after his subsequent struggles. On the mound this year, he posted a 1.66 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 20/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 21.2 innings, also saving eleven games. He's a 6'3" righty without the typical velocity you'd like from college relievers, sitting in the low 90's, but he adds a solid hard slider and a present changeup despite being new to pitching. You'd typically think a pitcher like this would be confined to relief, but by taking him the fourth round, the Pirates must be taking into account his inexperience and his athleticism and concluding that he has a good chance to start. For now, he looks more like a back-end starter, but he definitely has the chance for more if he takes well to starting. Slot value is $460,000 and he has not signed yet.
5-154: RHP Grant Ford (Nevada, unranked)
Well, Grant Ford went unranked on both the MLB Pipeline top 200 and the Baseball America 500, and YouTube has no video on him since high school, so I'll admit I don't know much about him and I'll do my best here. He's a 6'1" righty from San Jose who posted a 2.76 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 51/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 45.2 innings for Nevada, a massive improvement over his poor 2018 season. Video from high school shows long arm action with a riding fastball, a solid changeup, and a fringy breaking ball, though he has historically struggled with his command at Nevada and seemed like he finally figured out the strike zone in 2019. He's likely a reliever at the next level and he signed for $422,500, which was $79,100 above slot, then allowed three runs over 1.2 innings in his first appearance at West Virginia.
7-214: OF Blake Sabol (Southern California, unranked)
Blake Sabol is a very talented player who hasn't quite gotten it together during his time at Southern California, and as a junior he slashed just .268/.346/.368 with three home runs and a 40/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. However, he showed what he can really do with a white hot run through the Cape Cod League over the summer, where he slashed .340/.445/.573 with seven home runs and a 21/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 37 games. Like Gorski and Triolo, he's a big guy at 6'4" but hasn't quite tapped his power as much as he should, as his mechanics get out of whack at times and he'll need a lot of refinement. There's a high ceiling here as a starting outfielder, but as a college junior, he has to make the adjustments quicker than a high schooler would. He signed for $247,500, which was $41,000 above slot, and he is slashing .227/.370/.364 with a 4/4 strikeout to walk ratio over six games at West Virginia.
9-274: SS Ethan Paul (Vanderbilt, unranked)
If you're watching the College World Series like I am as I write this, you've probably heard Ethan Paul's name as Vanderbilt's senior shortstop and three hitter. This year, he was a key cog in the Vandy offens, slashing .311/.382/.495 with nine home runs and a 64/31 strikeout to walk ratio through 70 games coming into the last game of the season. He's average across the board, showing some contact ability, mediocre but present power, and some speed. Defensively, he probably won't stick at shortstop but he'll be able to handle second base just fine, and he ultimately projects as a utility infielder. Slot value is $152,300, but as a senior who will be 23 in August, it will take less than that for him to sign.
Also notable: Blake Sabol (7-214), Ethan Paul (9-274)
The Pirates took a couple of high-upside high schoolers at the start of the draft, then took ten straight college players as they followed the general trend in this year's draft. Interestingly, all of the college players they took early on actually come with risk/reward profiles that are more similar to high schoolers, so it looks like they really targeted upside overall in this draft. Given that they had competitive balance picks in both the A and B rounds and therefore five of the first 95 picks, I actually find their draft class to be a bit light, but we'll see how these upside guys turn out down the road.
1-18: RHP Quinn Priester (Cary-Grove HS [IL], my rank: 20)
The Pirates seem to like high school pitchers, and they grabbed another in Quinn Priester. The Chicago-area native entered the spring looking more like a comp round or early second round pick, but he pitched extremely well despite the nasty Chicago weather and pushed himself up boards. Most high school pitchers are much more "thrower" than "pitcher," but Priester is very much the latter, as he reportedly taught himself to pitch by watching YouTube rather than using a pitching coach. The results of his efforts are a low to mid 90's fastball and a very good curveball with solid command, though his changeup is still coming along. Given how much progress he made on his own, it's very easy to envision him taking another step forward with pro instruction, especially on the changeup and command fronts, and he even seems like the guy who could add a slider down the road. At 6'3", Priester is very athletic and does a very good job of getting his legs into his delivery to create velocity, and all together he is one of the more "starterish" high school pitchers in this draft. Priester has work to do, but he has a high ceiling and his feel for the game will help him make the most of his talent. He signed for $3.4 million, which was $80,000 below slot and diverted him away from a TCU commitment.
CBB-37: OF Sammy Siani (Penn Charter HS [PA], my rank: 48)
Siani hails from Pennsylvania, but he's not exactly a hometown player because he comes from the other end of the state in Philadelphia. His older brother, Mike, is currently at Class A Dayton in the Reds organization, though Sammy beat him by 72 picks after Mike signed over slot as a fourth rounder in 2018. Sammy is only 5'11" but he uses his smooth, uppercut swing to generate average power despite his size, and that should grow as he fills out his frame. That power also comes with an advanced hit tool, as Siani can make consistent hard contact from the left side of the plate and could be an all-around contributor at the plate. He's pretty fast and while he probably won't stick in center field, he should be a solid right fielder that produces some positive value out there. Overall, he projects for 15-20 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages, though as a 5'11" high schooler, he comes with his share of risk. It took $2.15 million, or $150,000 over slot, to sign him away from a Duke commitment, then he picked up two hits in ten at bats while striking out four times in his first two games the complex level Gulf Coast League.
2-57: OF Matt Gorski (Indiana, my rank: 137)
As you can tell by my ranking, I find this to be a questionable pick. Despite being a college junior, Gorski actually comes more with the risk/reward profile of a high school player. After a big sophomore season where he slashed .356/.404/.554 at Indiana, he regressed this year and dropped to .271/.374/.498 with 12 home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 62/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. The Indianapolis native comes with plenty of tools, as he shows power and stole 57 bases over three years in Bloomington, also adding in a strong arm. However, his mechanics tend to break down at times and you have to question his feel for the game, as he regularly plays below his tools. He has a long swing and still needs to add some loft to it to get to his power more regularly, but the 6'4" slugger struck out in 23.7% of his plate appearances this year and his hit tool is fringy as is. Because he's 6'4" and has both power and speed, he still retains his high upside at 21 years old, but he'll need some work. At best, Gorski could hit 20-25 home runs per season with mediocre on-base percentages and solid outfield defense, but he comes with more risk than the typical college hitter. He signed for $1 million, which was $240,000 below slot, and has two hits in fourteen at bats with seven strikeouts over his first four games at short season West Virginia, adding three walks.
CBB-72: 3B Jared Triolo (Houston, unranked)
Triolo is a fairly average player all around, but he's interesting and has some upside. In 2019, he slashed .332/.420/.512 with seven home runs and a 30/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games for the University of Houston, and that came on the heels of a solid .276/.364/.423 run through the Cape Cod League. The Austin-area native shows good feel for the barrel to go along with strong plate discipline, though his power is slightly below average at this point because his swing is more geared towards line drives. His swing may be fine as is, and that would lead to solid on-base percentages along with ten or so home runs a season, but some adjustments could help him tap the power in his 6'3" frame and get him up to 15-20 home runs annually. He's a solid-average defender at third base, and overall he projects as a fringe-regular who may more likely end up as a part time starter at the major league level. However, if he takes well to mechanical changes, he has the hitting aptitude to turn himself into a solid regular. He signed for $868,200, or $2,500 below slot, and he's slashing .217/.269/.522 with a home run and a 4/2 strikeout to walk ratio through his first six games at West Virginia.
3-95: OF Matt Fraizer (Arizona, unranked)
The Arizona Wildcats may have finished fifth in a tough Pac-12 this year with just a 15-14 in-conference record, but in the third round of the draft, Matt Fraizer was already the third Wildcat hitter drafted after Cameron Cannon (#43, Red Sox) and Nick Quintana (#47, Tigers). Fraizer slashed just .266/.352/.359 as a sophomore in 2018 then dropped to .165/.240/.187 over 31 games on the Cape, but he came out of the gate a different hitter in 2019. In March, the Fresno, California native was slashing .412/.452/.565 with a home run and a 6/6 strikeout to walk ratio through 19 games, but he broke his hand and that marked the end of his season. The Pirates obviously liked what they saw in those 19 games, and they'll hope that the breakout was for real. Fraizer has a quick, line drive swing that can spray balls around the park, and at 6'3", he should be able to tap some power at the next level. He's also fast, allowing him to impact the game in yet another way, and that makes him a solid center fielder. Given Fraizer's lack of a track record, he comes with more risk than the typical college player, but he also has a high ceiling and this pick could turn into a steal if that breakout truly was for real. He signed for $525,500, which was $85,800 below slot.
4-124: RHP J.C. Flowers (Florida State, unranked)
Flowers was both Florida State's starting center fielder and its closer, and although he slashed .268/.374/.500 with eleven home runs as a hitter this year, the Pirates look like they prefer him as a pitcher. The Jacksonville native had actually never pitched at the collegiate level prior to this season, as he broke his jaw as a sophomore and decided to take to pitching after his subsequent struggles. On the mound this year, he posted a 1.66 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 20/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 21.2 innings, also saving eleven games. He's a 6'3" righty without the typical velocity you'd like from college relievers, sitting in the low 90's, but he adds a solid hard slider and a present changeup despite being new to pitching. You'd typically think a pitcher like this would be confined to relief, but by taking him the fourth round, the Pirates must be taking into account his inexperience and his athleticism and concluding that he has a good chance to start. For now, he looks more like a back-end starter, but he definitely has the chance for more if he takes well to starting. Slot value is $460,000 and he has not signed yet.
5-154: RHP Grant Ford (Nevada, unranked)
Well, Grant Ford went unranked on both the MLB Pipeline top 200 and the Baseball America 500, and YouTube has no video on him since high school, so I'll admit I don't know much about him and I'll do my best here. He's a 6'1" righty from San Jose who posted a 2.76 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 51/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 45.2 innings for Nevada, a massive improvement over his poor 2018 season. Video from high school shows long arm action with a riding fastball, a solid changeup, and a fringy breaking ball, though he has historically struggled with his command at Nevada and seemed like he finally figured out the strike zone in 2019. He's likely a reliever at the next level and he signed for $422,500, which was $79,100 above slot, then allowed three runs over 1.2 innings in his first appearance at West Virginia.
7-214: OF Blake Sabol (Southern California, unranked)
Blake Sabol is a very talented player who hasn't quite gotten it together during his time at Southern California, and as a junior he slashed just .268/.346/.368 with three home runs and a 40/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. However, he showed what he can really do with a white hot run through the Cape Cod League over the summer, where he slashed .340/.445/.573 with seven home runs and a 21/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 37 games. Like Gorski and Triolo, he's a big guy at 6'4" but hasn't quite tapped his power as much as he should, as his mechanics get out of whack at times and he'll need a lot of refinement. There's a high ceiling here as a starting outfielder, but as a college junior, he has to make the adjustments quicker than a high schooler would. He signed for $247,500, which was $41,000 above slot, and he is slashing .227/.370/.364 with a 4/4 strikeout to walk ratio over six games at West Virginia.
9-274: SS Ethan Paul (Vanderbilt, unranked)
If you're watching the College World Series like I am as I write this, you've probably heard Ethan Paul's name as Vanderbilt's senior shortstop and three hitter. This year, he was a key cog in the Vandy offens, slashing .311/.382/.495 with nine home runs and a 64/31 strikeout to walk ratio through 70 games coming into the last game of the season. He's average across the board, showing some contact ability, mediocre but present power, and some speed. Defensively, he probably won't stick at shortstop but he'll be able to handle second base just fine, and he ultimately projects as a utility infielder. Slot value is $152,300, but as a senior who will be 23 in August, it will take less than that for him to sign.
Wednesday, May 29, 2019
2019 Draft Preview: High School RHP's
Every year, there is typically some high school right hander who separates himself from the pack and creates buzz as to whether he can be the first high school right hander ever taken first overall. In 2018, it was Carter Stewart, before that it was Hunter Greene, and before that it was Riley Pint. Stewart is headed to Japan, Greene is out with Tommy John surgery, and Pint has been largely ineffective, and this year, there isn't anyone threatening to even land in the top five to ten picks. In fact, Matthew Allan is the only one with a good chance of landing in the top half of the first round at all, but once you get into the back part of the first round, names start popping up and there are plenty of kids with interesting upside. It's harder to separate players into tiers when there are so many, but here is my best shot at it.
Tier I: Matthew Allan, Brennan Malone, Quinn Priester
There were three in the top tier at the start of the spring, and there are three now, though Quinn Priester was swapped in for Daniel Espino. Matthew Allan, a high schooler in Orlando, is likely the best arm in this group, though he still isn't a premium prospect. Allan is a 6'3" right hander with three great pitches, tossing his fastball in the mid 90's, adding one of the better curveballs in the class, and wrapping it up with an advanced changeup for a high school pitcher. His command has also taken a step forward this spring, making him extremely well rounded for a high schooler, and he should be signable away from a commitment to Florida. Allan looks like a future #2 starter at best but more likely settles in as a mid-rotation guy, and he looks to go somewhere near the middle of the first round, likely earlier rather than later. Brennan Malone, a Charlotte native attending the IMG Academy in Florida, also took a step forward as a senior and got much more consistent with his stuff, now sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball while adding a solid slider, a curve that flashes plus, and a usable changeup. He's athletic and stands 6'3", and while he still has to get more consistent with some of his secondary stuff and his command, he's trending in the right direction and features arguably more upside than Allan. He'll go in the back half of the first round. Quinn Priester, like Allan and Malone, took a step forward this spring, though he has improved his draft stock the most out of the three. The 6'3" righty out of the Chicago area added velocity to his fastball and now sits in the low to mid 90's, also improving his curveball to the point where it now looks like a plus pitch and showcasing great feel for pitching, especially for a cold-weather arm. He apparently has not used a pitching coach and instead taught himself to pitch by watching Major League pitchers on YouTube, casting further light on his makeup and feel for pitching. He has solid command but needs to add a changeup, something which should be no issue, and his slow delivery features some jerk but is overall effective. He looks to be drafted in the same range as Malone.
Tier II: Daniel Espino, J.J. Goss, Jack Leiter, Josh Wolf
These four make up the kids who are likely to go towards the end of the first round/in the comp rounds, and like the guys in the first tier, all have had great springs. Daniel Espino is perhaps the most interesting high school arm in this part of the draft, as he started the spring locked in a dead-heat with Allan and Malone in competition for the best arm in the class. He hasn't really done anything to damper his own stock, but he has fallen because – wait for it – he throws too hard. Espino, a Panama native pitching at the Georgia Premier Academy in Statesboro, is a stocky 6'1" but throws consistently in the upper 90's, adding a wipeout slider and a good curveball to give himself easily the best stuff in the class – high school or college. Not only does his fastball reach 99 with consistency, it has wicked movement that makes it nearly impossible to square up. However, scouts are a little bit skeptical of Espino because of the velocity itself, as recent flamethrowing high schoolers like Riley Pint, Tyler Kolek, Hunter Greene, and Michael Kopech have gone on to struggle with injuries and ineffectiveness in pro ball. Espino himself has long arm action, but he is very athletic and alleviates much of the pressure on his arm due for that reason. If he stays healthy, he has true ace upside, and could even win some Cy Young Awards. However, that health piece is a huge "if" and he could realistically run into any range of outcomes, so he fits tentatively into the back half of the first round. Moving on, Houston-area native J.J. Goss has used a strong spring to push himself into first round consideration, showing a low 90's fastball, a very good slider, and a good changeup from a fluid delivery and loose, whippy arm action that bodes well for future projection. He commands everything decently well, though his lack of premium velocity pushes him into the back of the first round, where he looks to develop as a mid-rotation starter. Jack Leiter, son of former MLB pitcher Al Leiter, pitches in New Jersey and has ridden some of the best command in the high school class to where he is today. He's just 6'1" and throws in the low 90's, but he has a full array of secondary pitches headlined by a very good curveball, and his feel for pitching makes everything play up. That said, he's already 19, making him very old for a high school pitcher. Leiter has limited upside but looks like a safer bet than most high school pitchers to end up a major league starter, probably a #4, so he should go towards the back of the first round or in the comp rounds. Josh Wolf, like Goss, is a Houston high school pitcher, and he has elevated his status more than Espino, Goss, or Leiter this spring. He throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a very good curveball, and at a skinny 6'2", he comes with some projection. However, he's skinny enough that some scouts are worried about his ability to hold up under a professional workload, and he can lose his arm slot from time to time, affecting his command. He has strong makeup and should make the most out of his ability, looking like a comp round pick.
Tier III: Kendall Williams, Matthew Thompson, Bryce Osmond, Andrew Dalquist, Jimmy Lewis, Jack Kochanowicz
This is the second round group, at least based on talent and with signability aside. Kendall Williams, originally from the Memphis area, is teammates with Malone at the IMG Academy and comes in at an imposing, projectable 6'6". He currently throws in the low 90's but uses his height to his advantage, getting good downhill plane on the ball that makes it tough to elevate. Behind the fastball, he has a curve, slider, and changeup, all of which are fully usable, with the curveball being his out pitch. He still has work to do but with his projectable frame, he has a high ceiling as a starting pitcher. Meanwhile, Matthew Thompson is teammates with Goss at Cypress Ranch High School near Houston, though he hasn't had as great of a spring as his rotation mate. Thompson was viewed as a potential first rounder after a strong summer where he was into the mid 90's and flashed a strong curveball but his stuff and mechanics have been inconsistent this spring and he's fallen more into second round territory if he's signable away from Texas A&M. Thompson's 6'2" frame and whippy arm action give him plenty of projection, but he'll need more work than anticipated to reach his high ceiling. Bryce Osmond, a high schooler near Tulsa, also needs a lot of work, currently showing a low 90's fastball at his best but often fading during his starts. He also has a good slider and plenty of projection from his 6'3" frame, but he'll need to add strength to keep himself out of the bullpen. Andrew Dalquist, from Southern California, is a personal favorite of mine, already showing a full arsenal headlined by a low 90's fastball with good running action that will help him miss bats. His curveball has good shape and should become a plus pitch in time, his slider is already average, and his changeup shows fade. With a projectable 6'2" frame, he should add more velocity, and he has intriguing upside as well as a good chance to get there. Jimmy Lewis is teammates with star hitting prospect Brett Baty at Lake Travis High School in Austin, currently showing a low 90's fastball from a 6'6" frame. His curveball flashes plus and his changeup is fairly advanced for his age, and with an easy delivery, he should add velocity while maintaining decent to good command. Sometimes the pitchers in this part of the draft can get a bit redundant, and he hasn't done much in particular to separate himself, but he does have the ingredients to be a successful major league starter. Lastly, Jack Kochanowicz comes from the Philadelphia area, also standing 6'6" and tossing a low 90's fastball with a good curveball, though his delivery isn't quite as smooth as Lewis's and will require some refinement. That makes Lewis the better bet to maintain good command/add velocity/stay healthy down the road, but if Kochanowicz takes well to mechanical changes, he has the same upside.
Others: Evan Fitterer, Brett Thomas, Trey Faltine, Riley Cornelio, Will Rigney, Michael Limoncelli
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