Patrick Corbin (2019 Age: 29-30): 11-7, 3.15 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 246/48 K/BB, 200 IP
Six years, $140 million
The Nationals added the top arm on the market in Patrick Corbin, and with a $140 million contract, he's only the third highest paid pitcher in the Nationals' rotation behind Max Scherzer ($210 million) and Stephen Strasburg ($175 million). The front three of Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin is now one of the best in baseball, with Tanner Roark and Joe Ross looking like the fourth and fifth starters if the Nationals do not add another arm. They probably will given Strasburg's and Ross's health issues, with Erick Fedde the current next man up. As for Corbin, he has had a roller coaster of a career so far, kicking off with a huge 2013 season in which he posted a 3.41 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 178/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 208.1 innings. He went down with Tommy John surgery immediately afterwards and missed the 2014 season and half of 2015, was mediocre in 2016 (5.15 ERA), pretty decent in 2017 (4.03 ERA), and great in 2018. This past year, he posted a 3.15 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and an excellent 246/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 200 innings, his 30.8% strikeout rate finishing seventh among qualified starters and third among NL starters. His 246 total strikeouts were fifth overall. He actually hasn't gained any velocity, but his slider has been inducing more and more swings and misses and has become a truly elite pitch. I see him settling in as a quality #2 caliber pitcher for the next couple of seasons before regressing to a mid-rotation level in the back half of his deal. He's still fairly young as far as free agents go, not turning 30 until mid-season, meaning he will be under contract through his age 35-36 season in 2024. For his career, the Syracuse native is 56-54 with a 3.91 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and an 897/271 strikeout to walk ratio over 172 games (154 starts) since 2012.
Showing posts with label Free Agent Signing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Free Agent Signing. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 5, 2018
Tuesday, November 27, 2018
Braves sign Josh Donaldson, Brian McCann
3B Josh Donaldson (Age 33): 8 HR, .246/.352/.449, 2 SB, 117 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR in 52 games
Contract: One year, $23 million
This contract makes perfect sense for both sides. Donaldson is an extremely productive, All Star caliber player coming off a string of borderline-MVP seasons followed by an injury-riddled disappointment of a 2018. By taking a one year contract, he can still bring in a very solid $23 million while rebuilding his value for a longer team deal after the season. From the Braves' perspective, $23 million is a lot to invest in a soon-to-be 34 year old coming off a disappointing season, but it's just a one year commitment and Donaldson could very well revert to his pre-2018 self, in which case they'd be getting a discount - and potential draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere - on a lineup anchor. In 2016, Donaldson's last healthy season, he slashed .284/.404/.549 with 37 home runs for the Blue Jays for a total of 7.6 fWAR, but that dropped slightly to .270/.385/.559 with 33 home runs and 5.1 fWAR while battling minor calf injuries in 2017. He injured his other calf in 2018 and the issue lingered all season, dropping his slash line to .246/.352/.449 as he finished with just eight home runs and 1.3 fWAR in 52 games. While the numbers aren't close to his usual standards, they aren't bad either; a .352 on-base percentage with a .449 slugging percentage still makes for a well-above-average hitter, and that's a hitter who was being dragged down by nagging injuries. A healthy Donaldson is still an All Star, and if he can't stay healthy, the Braves are not committed to him past 2019. For his career, the Auburn alum has 182 home runs, a .275/.367/.507 slash line, and 36.5 fWAR over 883 games since 2010.
C Brian McCann (Age 34): 7 HR, .212/.301/.339, 0 SB, 82 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR in 63 games
Contract: One year, $2 million
McCann is clearly a much smaller-scale addition, but for just $2 million, he has the opportunity to help the Braves by providing depth behind the plate as well as veteran leadership. A native of Duluth, Georgia, less than 25 miles from SunTrust Park and just ten miles from the Braves' AAA affiliate, the Gwinnett Stripers, it's a homecoming for the former Brave in more ways than one. He was one of the best catchers in baseball during his time in Atlanta, accumulating 28.3 fWAR from 2005-2013 as a Brave. His bat has regressed as he has gotten older, and now he's a mediocre hitter with a pretty decent glove, and right now it looks like he'll split catching duties with fellow Atlanta-area native Tyler Flowers. Still, I see catcher as an area of need for the Braves and I don't think McCann fills it entirely. Neither Flowers nor McCann are starting-quality catchers for a playoff-hopeful team like the Braves, with McCann slashing .212/.301/.339 in 2018 and Flowers not much better at .227/.341/.359. On the other hand, it is cool to see an all-Atlanta born catching corps. For his career, McCann has 270 home runs, a .263/.338/.454 slash line, and 36.9 fWAR over 1670 games since 2005.
Contract: One year, $23 million
This contract makes perfect sense for both sides. Donaldson is an extremely productive, All Star caliber player coming off a string of borderline-MVP seasons followed by an injury-riddled disappointment of a 2018. By taking a one year contract, he can still bring in a very solid $23 million while rebuilding his value for a longer team deal after the season. From the Braves' perspective, $23 million is a lot to invest in a soon-to-be 34 year old coming off a disappointing season, but it's just a one year commitment and Donaldson could very well revert to his pre-2018 self, in which case they'd be getting a discount - and potential draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere - on a lineup anchor. In 2016, Donaldson's last healthy season, he slashed .284/.404/.549 with 37 home runs for the Blue Jays for a total of 7.6 fWAR, but that dropped slightly to .270/.385/.559 with 33 home runs and 5.1 fWAR while battling minor calf injuries in 2017. He injured his other calf in 2018 and the issue lingered all season, dropping his slash line to .246/.352/.449 as he finished with just eight home runs and 1.3 fWAR in 52 games. While the numbers aren't close to his usual standards, they aren't bad either; a .352 on-base percentage with a .449 slugging percentage still makes for a well-above-average hitter, and that's a hitter who was being dragged down by nagging injuries. A healthy Donaldson is still an All Star, and if he can't stay healthy, the Braves are not committed to him past 2019. For his career, the Auburn alum has 182 home runs, a .275/.367/.507 slash line, and 36.5 fWAR over 883 games since 2010.
C Brian McCann (Age 34): 7 HR, .212/.301/.339, 0 SB, 82 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR in 63 games
Contract: One year, $2 million
McCann is clearly a much smaller-scale addition, but for just $2 million, he has the opportunity to help the Braves by providing depth behind the plate as well as veteran leadership. A native of Duluth, Georgia, less than 25 miles from SunTrust Park and just ten miles from the Braves' AAA affiliate, the Gwinnett Stripers, it's a homecoming for the former Brave in more ways than one. He was one of the best catchers in baseball during his time in Atlanta, accumulating 28.3 fWAR from 2005-2013 as a Brave. His bat has regressed as he has gotten older, and now he's a mediocre hitter with a pretty decent glove, and right now it looks like he'll split catching duties with fellow Atlanta-area native Tyler Flowers. Still, I see catcher as an area of need for the Braves and I don't think McCann fills it entirely. Neither Flowers nor McCann are starting-quality catchers for a playoff-hopeful team like the Braves, with McCann slashing .212/.301/.339 in 2018 and Flowers not much better at .227/.341/.359. On the other hand, it is cool to see an all-Atlanta born catching corps. For his career, McCann has 270 home runs, a .263/.338/.454 slash line, and 36.9 fWAR over 1670 games since 2005.
Wednesday, March 21, 2018
Orioles Add Alex Cobb to Rotation
Alex Cobb:12-10, 3.66 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 128/44 K/BB, 179.1 IP
Four years, $57 million, full no-trade clause for 2018 and partial no-trade clause after
After signing Andrew Cashner a month ago, the Orioles again added to their rotation with righty Alex Cobb, signing him to a four year deal worth $57 million. As I wrote with Cashner, the Orioles rotation last season was downright awful, but swapping Ubaldo Jimenez and Wade Miley for the incoming Cashner and Cobb is certainly an upgrade. It's not enough to give the Orioles even an average rotation, but it's something. Cobb's deal is actually close to market value, unlike those written below in the email. From 2013-2014, Cobb was one of the better pitchers in baseball, going 21-12 with a 2.82 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 49 starts for the Rays, but he missed all of 2015 and was limited to five starts in 2016 before bouncing back in 2017. This past year, he wasn't quite as good as he was in 2013-2014, but a 3.66 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over a career high 29 starts were still valuable and enough to make him a reliable mid-rotation arm. His 17.3% strikeout rate was down from 22.5% from 2013-2014. However, his 5.9% walk rate was the lowest of his career and much lower than the 7.3% rate from 2013-2014, showing that Cobb is aware of where he stands now as a pitcher post-injury and has made the necessary adjustments. That's always a good sign. For his career, the Vero Beach, Florida native is 48-35 with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 115 starts, all with the Rays.
Four years, $57 million, full no-trade clause for 2018 and partial no-trade clause after
After signing Andrew Cashner a month ago, the Orioles again added to their rotation with righty Alex Cobb, signing him to a four year deal worth $57 million. As I wrote with Cashner, the Orioles rotation last season was downright awful, but swapping Ubaldo Jimenez and Wade Miley for the incoming Cashner and Cobb is certainly an upgrade. It's not enough to give the Orioles even an average rotation, but it's something. Cobb's deal is actually close to market value, unlike those written below in the email. From 2013-2014, Cobb was one of the better pitchers in baseball, going 21-12 with a 2.82 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 49 starts for the Rays, but he missed all of 2015 and was limited to five starts in 2016 before bouncing back in 2017. This past year, he wasn't quite as good as he was in 2013-2014, but a 3.66 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over a career high 29 starts were still valuable and enough to make him a reliable mid-rotation arm. His 17.3% strikeout rate was down from 22.5% from 2013-2014. However, his 5.9% walk rate was the lowest of his career and much lower than the 7.3% rate from 2013-2014, showing that Cobb is aware of where he stands now as a pitcher post-injury and has made the necessary adjustments. That's always a good sign. For his career, the Vero Beach, Florida native is 48-35 with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 115 starts, all with the Rays.
Tuesday, March 20, 2018
Yankees Add Neil Walker to Infield Picture
Neil Walker: 14 HR, .265/.362/.439, 0 SB, 114 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR
One year, $4 million, up to $500,000 in plate appearance-related incentives
The Yankees continued adding to their infield, bringing in a strong bat in Neil Walker for just $4 million, or up to $4.5 million if he can crack 500 plate appearances. Walker's signing means that he'll likely replace Starlin Castro as the starting second baseman, with the newly acquired Brandon Drury sliding over to third base and rookies Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar beginning the season at AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre. However, another rookie, Tyler Wade, could challenge Walker for a starting spot. Walker is a very competent hitter, coming off a season in which he slashed .265/.362/.439 with 14 home runs in 111 games, good for a 114 wRC+ and showing both on-base ability and power. A year prior, in 2016, he had a career year, slashing .282/.347/.476 with 23 home runs, enough for a 122 wRC+ and a career high 3.7 fWAR. His power should play up in Yankee Stadium, plus he should see more pitches to hit with guys like Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gary Sanchez in the lineup around him, so the 32 year old should have another good year this year. For his career, the Pittsburgh area native has 130 home runs, a .272/.341/.437 slash line, 29 stolen bases, and 21.1 fWAR over 1060 games.
One year, $4 million, up to $500,000 in plate appearance-related incentives
The Yankees continued adding to their infield, bringing in a strong bat in Neil Walker for just $4 million, or up to $4.5 million if he can crack 500 plate appearances. Walker's signing means that he'll likely replace Starlin Castro as the starting second baseman, with the newly acquired Brandon Drury sliding over to third base and rookies Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar beginning the season at AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre. However, another rookie, Tyler Wade, could challenge Walker for a starting spot. Walker is a very competent hitter, coming off a season in which he slashed .265/.362/.439 with 14 home runs in 111 games, good for a 114 wRC+ and showing both on-base ability and power. A year prior, in 2016, he had a career year, slashing .282/.347/.476 with 23 home runs, enough for a 122 wRC+ and a career high 3.7 fWAR. His power should play up in Yankee Stadium, plus he should see more pitches to hit with guys like Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gary Sanchez in the lineup around him, so the 32 year old should have another good year this year. For his career, the Pittsburgh area native has 130 home runs, a .272/.341/.437 slash line, 29 stolen bases, and 21.1 fWAR over 1060 games.
Twins Add Lance Lynn in Latest Move
Lance Lynn: 11-8, 3.43 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 153/78 K/BB, 186.1 IP
One year, $12 million
Unlike Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn did not get the kind of contract he was looking for, signing for just $12 million on a one year deal. It can run up to $13 million if he reaches 170 innings this season and $14 million if he reaches 180 innings, but it is still far short of the $50 million+ deal he was expected to receive. The good news about a one year deal for Lynn is that he'll be a free agent next season in what has to be a better market. Lynn joins a new-look Twins team that has already added Jake Odorizzi to the rotation, Addison Reed, Fernando Rodney, and Zach Duke to the bullpen, and Logan Morrison to the lineup. The Twins' rotation is looking good for the season, with Lynn joining Odorizzi, Ervin Santana, Jose Berrios, and Kyle Gibson, with Phil Hughes and rookie Stephen Gonsalves acting as insurance. Lynn was a quietly above-average starter for the Cardinals from 2012-2015, then missed 2016 with Tommy John surgery, but picked right back up where he left off in 2017 by posting a 3.43 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 153/78 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 starts. He's a bit inconsistent, and the increased walk rate is a bit troubling (career high 10.1% in 2017) as well as the diminished strikeout rate (career low 19.7%). Lynn should be a solid #4, but don't get ahead of yourself in thinking that he could turn the Twins rotation from a good one to a great one. For his career, the Indiana native and former Ole Miss Rebel is 72-47 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over 183 games (161 starts), all with the Cardinals.
One year, $12 million
Unlike Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn did not get the kind of contract he was looking for, signing for just $12 million on a one year deal. It can run up to $13 million if he reaches 170 innings this season and $14 million if he reaches 180 innings, but it is still far short of the $50 million+ deal he was expected to receive. The good news about a one year deal for Lynn is that he'll be a free agent next season in what has to be a better market. Lynn joins a new-look Twins team that has already added Jake Odorizzi to the rotation, Addison Reed, Fernando Rodney, and Zach Duke to the bullpen, and Logan Morrison to the lineup. The Twins' rotation is looking good for the season, with Lynn joining Odorizzi, Ervin Santana, Jose Berrios, and Kyle Gibson, with Phil Hughes and rookie Stephen Gonsalves acting as insurance. Lynn was a quietly above-average starter for the Cardinals from 2012-2015, then missed 2016 with Tommy John surgery, but picked right back up where he left off in 2017 by posting a 3.43 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 153/78 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 starts. He's a bit inconsistent, and the increased walk rate is a bit troubling (career high 10.1% in 2017) as well as the diminished strikeout rate (career low 19.7%). Lynn should be a solid #4, but don't get ahead of yourself in thinking that he could turn the Twins rotation from a good one to a great one. For his career, the Indiana native and former Ole Miss Rebel is 72-47 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over 183 games (161 starts), all with the Cardinals.
Saturday, March 17, 2018
Phillies Sign Jake Arrieta
Jake Arrieta: 14-10, 3.53 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 163/55 K/BB, 168.1 IP
Three years, $75 million. Opt-out after two years, $55 million, team option for two years, $40 million (or more based on Cy Young related escalators) that cancels opt-out
Many of the players who have signed in March have gotten well below-market deals, unfortunately, However, that is not the case for Jake Arrieta, who signed for three years and $75 million to go pitch in Philadelphia. He has an opt out after two years and $55 million, but the Phillies can "void" the opt out by "extending" him by two years and $40 million, meaning the contract could be as large as a five year, $115 million deal. The guarantee within the contract is probably not as long as he would have liked, but at this point he made out pretty well considering the circumstances of this awful offseason. Arrieta is no longer the ace he was in 2015, as his ERA has jumped from 1.77 to 3.10 to 3.53 in the past three seasons, but he's still a solid #2 arm that can really help a Phillies team that is trending in the right direction. $25 million per season actually strikes me as a bit much for Arrieta (well actually $30 million, then $25 million, then $20 million), but it does make up for the lack of longevity in the deal as well as being able to bring him to a team that's not contending...yet. Having also added Carlos Santana on a three year deal this offseason, I don't see Philadelphia winning a Wild Card in 2018, but they could compete by 2019 with that young core growing up. Arrieta himself still has some left in the tank, having put up a 3.53 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 30 starts last year, and he'll only be 32, 33, and 34 for the guaranteed portion of this contract, which isn't too bad. However, do expect his ERA to jump a little, due in part to natural decline but also due to the Phillies' more hitter-friendly home park as well as their inferior defense when compared to that of the Cubs. For his career, the former TCU Horned Frog is 88-56 with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP over 197 games (191 starts); however, since he was traded to the Cubs in 2013, he is 68-31 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over 128 starts.
Three years, $75 million. Opt-out after two years, $55 million, team option for two years, $40 million (or more based on Cy Young related escalators) that cancels opt-out
Many of the players who have signed in March have gotten well below-market deals, unfortunately, However, that is not the case for Jake Arrieta, who signed for three years and $75 million to go pitch in Philadelphia. He has an opt out after two years and $55 million, but the Phillies can "void" the opt out by "extending" him by two years and $40 million, meaning the contract could be as large as a five year, $115 million deal. The guarantee within the contract is probably not as long as he would have liked, but at this point he made out pretty well considering the circumstances of this awful offseason. Arrieta is no longer the ace he was in 2015, as his ERA has jumped from 1.77 to 3.10 to 3.53 in the past three seasons, but he's still a solid #2 arm that can really help a Phillies team that is trending in the right direction. $25 million per season actually strikes me as a bit much for Arrieta (well actually $30 million, then $25 million, then $20 million), but it does make up for the lack of longevity in the deal as well as being able to bring him to a team that's not contending...yet. Having also added Carlos Santana on a three year deal this offseason, I don't see Philadelphia winning a Wild Card in 2018, but they could compete by 2019 with that young core growing up. Arrieta himself still has some left in the tank, having put up a 3.53 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 30 starts last year, and he'll only be 32, 33, and 34 for the guaranteed portion of this contract, which isn't too bad. However, do expect his ERA to jump a little, due in part to natural decline but also due to the Phillies' more hitter-friendly home park as well as their inferior defense when compared to that of the Cubs. For his career, the former TCU Horned Frog is 88-56 with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP over 197 games (191 starts); however, since he was traded to the Cubs in 2013, he is 68-31 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over 128 starts.
Saturday, March 10, 2018
Twins Add Logan Morrison to Lineup
Logan Morrison: 38 HR, .246/.353/.516, 2 SB, 130 wRC+, 3.3 fWAR
One year, $6.5 million
The Minnesota Twins are looking like sneaky contenders for next season, at least for the AL Wild Card, and they added Logan Morrison to a lineup that is a little deeper than you might expect. Behind big boppers Miguel Sano and Brian Dozier, Morrison will join Joe Mauer, the emerging Byron Buxton, and Eddie Rosario, among others. Morrison is limited defensively and will likely split time at first base and DH with Mauer, but his big, and the Twins hope he can repeat his career year from last year. In 149 games, Morrison slashed .246/.353/.516 with 38 home runs, good for a 130 wRC+ on the strength of a 13.5% walk rate, so his low, .246 batting average was hardly an issue. If he can keep up that high walk rate and even just approach his power from last season, his bat will be worth that $6.5 million. However, there is reason for pause because as recently as 2016, Morrison slashed .238/.319/.414 with 14 home runs and a 100 wRC+ over 107 games, and his numbers from 2015 were even worse. I do think Morrison's power breakout was for real, though, because his ground ball rate dropped dramatically from 44.7% in 2015 and 44.2% in 2016 to just 33.3% in 2017, as he focused more on lifting the ball and driving it over the fence. Look for Morrison to chase 30 home runs again in 2018. For his career, the Kansas City native has 122 home runs, a .245/.330/.433 slash line, and 5.6 fWAR over 864 games.
One year, $6.5 million
The Minnesota Twins are looking like sneaky contenders for next season, at least for the AL Wild Card, and they added Logan Morrison to a lineup that is a little deeper than you might expect. Behind big boppers Miguel Sano and Brian Dozier, Morrison will join Joe Mauer, the emerging Byron Buxton, and Eddie Rosario, among others. Morrison is limited defensively and will likely split time at first base and DH with Mauer, but his big, and the Twins hope he can repeat his career year from last year. In 149 games, Morrison slashed .246/.353/.516 with 38 home runs, good for a 130 wRC+ on the strength of a 13.5% walk rate, so his low, .246 batting average was hardly an issue. If he can keep up that high walk rate and even just approach his power from last season, his bat will be worth that $6.5 million. However, there is reason for pause because as recently as 2016, Morrison slashed .238/.319/.414 with 14 home runs and a 100 wRC+ over 107 games, and his numbers from 2015 were even worse. I do think Morrison's power breakout was for real, though, because his ground ball rate dropped dramatically from 44.7% in 2015 and 44.2% in 2016 to just 33.3% in 2017, as he focused more on lifting the ball and driving it over the fence. Look for Morrison to chase 30 home runs again in 2018. For his career, the Kansas City native has 122 home runs, a .245/.330/.433 slash line, and 5.6 fWAR over 864 games.
Thursday, March 8, 2018
Royals Bring Back Moustakas on One Year Deal
Mike Moustakas: 38 HR, .272/.314/.521, 114 wRC+, 2.2 fWAR
One year, $6.5 million, $15 million mutual option for 2019, up to $2.2 million in incentives
In this terrible free agent market, Mike Moustakas signed with the Royals for well below market value, grabbing just $6.5 million guaranteed months after finishing up a 38 homer season. That's a far cry from the one year, $17.4 million qualifying offer he turned down at the beginning of the offseason, with many expecting him to earn over $50 million on the open market. Now, his deal is a little better for him than it sounds; he'll earn $5.5 million in 2018, then he and the Royal will have a $15 million mutual option for 2019 with a $1 million buyout, and with $2.2 million available in incentives, the deal could be worth as much as $22.7 million over two seasons. Also, because he doesn't turn 30 until September, he'll be in a good position next offseason to sign a longer contract should his option not go through. From the Royals' side, this deal makes a lot of sense. $6.5 million is not much to pay for a power bat, and with Lucas Duda replacing Eric Hosmer and Jon Jay replacing Lorenzo Cain, they're actually not that much worse than they were last year. They likely won't contend, but with Moustakas, Duda, Jay, Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler, and Salvador Perez in that lineup, they'll at least be interesting for their fans to watch while they begin to rebuild. Moose is coming off a big 2017 season in which he slashed .272/.314/.521 with 38 home runs over 148 games, worth a solid 114 wRC+ and 2.2 fWAR. He hits for power and average, but his 5.7% walk rate did keep his good season from being a great season, and he has never walked at more than an 8% rate during his career. For his career, the 29 year old has 119 home runs, a .251/.305/.425 slash line, and 12.1 fWAR over 836 games, all with the Royals.
One year, $6.5 million, $15 million mutual option for 2019, up to $2.2 million in incentives
In this terrible free agent market, Mike Moustakas signed with the Royals for well below market value, grabbing just $6.5 million guaranteed months after finishing up a 38 homer season. That's a far cry from the one year, $17.4 million qualifying offer he turned down at the beginning of the offseason, with many expecting him to earn over $50 million on the open market. Now, his deal is a little better for him than it sounds; he'll earn $5.5 million in 2018, then he and the Royal will have a $15 million mutual option for 2019 with a $1 million buyout, and with $2.2 million available in incentives, the deal could be worth as much as $22.7 million over two seasons. Also, because he doesn't turn 30 until September, he'll be in a good position next offseason to sign a longer contract should his option not go through. From the Royals' side, this deal makes a lot of sense. $6.5 million is not much to pay for a power bat, and with Lucas Duda replacing Eric Hosmer and Jon Jay replacing Lorenzo Cain, they're actually not that much worse than they were last year. They likely won't contend, but with Moustakas, Duda, Jay, Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler, and Salvador Perez in that lineup, they'll at least be interesting for their fans to watch while they begin to rebuild. Moose is coming off a big 2017 season in which he slashed .272/.314/.521 with 38 home runs over 148 games, worth a solid 114 wRC+ and 2.2 fWAR. He hits for power and average, but his 5.7% walk rate did keep his good season from being a great season, and he has never walked at more than an 8% rate during his career. For his career, the 29 year old has 119 home runs, a .251/.305/.425 slash line, and 12.1 fWAR over 836 games, all with the Royals.
Monday, February 19, 2018
Red Sox Add J.D. Martinez to Middle of Lineup
J.D. Martinez: 45 HR, .303/.376/.690, 4 SB, 166 wRC+, 3.8 fWAR
Five years, $110 million (with buyouts after two years, $50 million and three years, $72 million)
While the Yankees added Giancarlo Stanton this offseason and potentially stand to see Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar emerge as stars this year, the Red Sox hadn't added a single player who wasn't on the roster last season until signing J.D. Martinez to a five year, $110 million contract. The deal comes with two opt-outs, one after two years and $50 million and the other after three years and $72 million, so if Martinez hits as expected, this could end up being a short term deal for Boston. That said, Martinez will be a huge addition to a Red Sox team with aspirations to win the AL East, coming off a season in which he slashed a ridiculous .303/.376/.690 with 45 home runs (including .302/.366/.741 with 29 home runs after a trade to Arizona). Now, Martinez didn't suddenly just get good this year; while his 166 wRC+ was a career high (and enough to finish third in the MLB behind Mike Trout and Aaron Judge had he qualified with 14 more plate appearances), Martinez did post wRC+'s of 154, 136, and 141 in 2014, 2015, and 2016, respectively, so he does have more of a track record than you might think. Detroit's Comerica Park suppressed his power a bit, which is reflected in wRC+'s part adjustment, but you can see that jump in his non-park adjusted wOBA (.391, .372, .384, .430 in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017) with that trade to Arizona in 2017. Fortunately, Fenway Park is almost as much of a launching pad as Arizona's Chase Field, so Martinez will likely mash near the rate he did this past season, making him one of the most valuable bats in the game. Joining the Red Sox outfield will be interesting, as Martinez is not a strong defender, so he will likely spend some significant time DH'ing. Right now, it looks like Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Mookie Betts are slated to start in the outfield with Hanley Ramirez at DH and Mitch Moreland at first (and prospect Sam Travis knocking at the door), so my guess is that it will be Moreland whose playing time takes the biggest hit, with JBJ losing some playing time as well. For his career, the DII prospect from Nova Southeastern University has 152 home runs, a .285/.342/.514 slash line, and 13.5 fWAR over 772 games.
Five years, $110 million (with buyouts after two years, $50 million and three years, $72 million)
While the Yankees added Giancarlo Stanton this offseason and potentially stand to see Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar emerge as stars this year, the Red Sox hadn't added a single player who wasn't on the roster last season until signing J.D. Martinez to a five year, $110 million contract. The deal comes with two opt-outs, one after two years and $50 million and the other after three years and $72 million, so if Martinez hits as expected, this could end up being a short term deal for Boston. That said, Martinez will be a huge addition to a Red Sox team with aspirations to win the AL East, coming off a season in which he slashed a ridiculous .303/.376/.690 with 45 home runs (including .302/.366/.741 with 29 home runs after a trade to Arizona). Now, Martinez didn't suddenly just get good this year; while his 166 wRC+ was a career high (and enough to finish third in the MLB behind Mike Trout and Aaron Judge had he qualified with 14 more plate appearances), Martinez did post wRC+'s of 154, 136, and 141 in 2014, 2015, and 2016, respectively, so he does have more of a track record than you might think. Detroit's Comerica Park suppressed his power a bit, which is reflected in wRC+'s part adjustment, but you can see that jump in his non-park adjusted wOBA (.391, .372, .384, .430 in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017) with that trade to Arizona in 2017. Fortunately, Fenway Park is almost as much of a launching pad as Arizona's Chase Field, so Martinez will likely mash near the rate he did this past season, making him one of the most valuable bats in the game. Joining the Red Sox outfield will be interesting, as Martinez is not a strong defender, so he will likely spend some significant time DH'ing. Right now, it looks like Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Mookie Betts are slated to start in the outfield with Hanley Ramirez at DH and Mitch Moreland at first (and prospect Sam Travis knocking at the door), so my guess is that it will be Moreland whose playing time takes the biggest hit, with JBJ losing some playing time as well. For his career, the DII prospect from Nova Southeastern University has 152 home runs, a .285/.342/.514 slash line, and 13.5 fWAR over 772 games.
Sunday, February 18, 2018
Padres Land Eric Hosmer
Eric Hosmer: 25 HR, .318/.385/.498, 6 SB, 135 wRC+, 4.1 fWAR
Eight years, $144 million (with opt-out after five years, $105 million)
The second $100 million domino to fall is first baseman Eric Hosmer, who signed with the Padres for eight years and $144 million (though the contract does include an opt-out after five years and $105 million). Personally, I'm not a big fan of this signing for the Padres, as Hosmer had a great year last year (25 HR, .318/.385/.498), but he hasn't been even remotely consistent during his career, fluctuating between seasons of high value (4.1 fWAR in 2017) and no value (-0.1 fWAR in 2016), so this is a big gamble by the Padres. He isn't a butcher at first base, being a mediocre-to-average defender at first base puts his defensive value pretty much right at zero. The value is in the bat, where he hits for moderate power and gets on base at an adequate rate, but both of those come and go and he has never been elite at either. He combined both in 2017 with that .385 on base percentage and .498 slugging percentage, good for a 135 wRC+, but sometimes neither is there, and that's when he's basically just your average player. Now, don't get me wrong, I love where the Padres are going as a franchise. Fernando Tatis Jr. and MacKenzie Gore are truly elite prospects, and Michael Baez, Adrian Morejon, and Luis Urias have star potential as well. The Padres did do well to get a name-brand bat onto a team that really lacks flashy, fan-drawing names outside of Wil Myers (who will move back to the outfield with Hosmer on board), even if they did overpay to get it. If he proves 2017 wasn't a fluke and that he can consistently be a 3-4 win player, this contract won't look so bad after all, but he does suck a lot of financial flexibility out of a team that will be contending soon. For his career, the South Florida native has 127 home runs, a .284/.342/.439 slash line, and 9.9 fWAR over 1048 games.
Saturday, February 17, 2018
Giants Add Lefty Tony Watson to Bullpen
Tony Watson: 7-4, 3.38 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 53/20 K/BB, 66.2 innings
Three years, $7 million
After growing up in Iowa, attending Nebraska for college, and pitching for Pittsburgh for the first six and a half years of his career, Tony Watson was traded to the Dodgers in 2017 and I guess he liked the West Coast, as he has signed a three year deal with the Giants. San Francisco is desperately trying to turn its team around, having already acquired Andrew McCutchen, Evan Longoria, Austin Jackson, and Gregor Blanco this year while more or less losing only Denard Span and Christian Arroyo, but they haven't touched the pitching staff yet. The bullpen has some upside with Mark Melancon, Hunter Strickland, Sam Dyson, Will Smith, and Cody Gearrin pencilled in, among others, but they all come with their own question marks (except maybe Strickland), and the team's core of lefties (Smith, Ty Blach, Josh Osich, Steven Okert) is pretty mediocre. Watson, a lefty, hasn't posted an ERA above 3.38 since his rookie 2011 season, and was one of the most reliable lefties in baseball for the Pirates from 2013-2015 (1.97 ERA, 0.95 WHIP in 224.1 innings). His ERA went up in 2016 (3.06) and again in 2017 (3.38), and though his 1.38 WHIP in 2017 was the worst of his career, it may have been due to some batted ball luck. His .317 opponents' BABIP was also a career high, indicating bad luck, and his 22.5% hard contact rate was actually his lowest since 2014. However, on the down side, his 18.2% strikeout rate was a career low, so Watson ultimately has factors working for and against him in 2018, and we'll just have to wait and see. For his career, Watson is 33-17 with a 2.68 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 474 appearances.
Three years, $7 million
After growing up in Iowa, attending Nebraska for college, and pitching for Pittsburgh for the first six and a half years of his career, Tony Watson was traded to the Dodgers in 2017 and I guess he liked the West Coast, as he has signed a three year deal with the Giants. San Francisco is desperately trying to turn its team around, having already acquired Andrew McCutchen, Evan Longoria, Austin Jackson, and Gregor Blanco this year while more or less losing only Denard Span and Christian Arroyo, but they haven't touched the pitching staff yet. The bullpen has some upside with Mark Melancon, Hunter Strickland, Sam Dyson, Will Smith, and Cody Gearrin pencilled in, among others, but they all come with their own question marks (except maybe Strickland), and the team's core of lefties (Smith, Ty Blach, Josh Osich, Steven Okert) is pretty mediocre. Watson, a lefty, hasn't posted an ERA above 3.38 since his rookie 2011 season, and was one of the most reliable lefties in baseball for the Pirates from 2013-2015 (1.97 ERA, 0.95 WHIP in 224.1 innings). His ERA went up in 2016 (3.06) and again in 2017 (3.38), and though his 1.38 WHIP in 2017 was the worst of his career, it may have been due to some batted ball luck. His .317 opponents' BABIP was also a career high, indicating bad luck, and his 22.5% hard contact rate was actually his lowest since 2014. However, on the down side, his 18.2% strikeout rate was a career low, so Watson ultimately has factors working for and against him in 2018, and we'll just have to wait and see. For his career, Watson is 33-17 with a 2.68 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 474 appearances.
Friday, February 16, 2018
Mets Seek Consistency, Add Jason Vargas
Jason Vargas: 18-11, 4.16 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 134/58 K/BB, 179.2 innings
Two years, $16 million
The Mets' rotation was plagued by injuries and inconsistency last season, with Noah Syndergaard (just seven starts), Matt Harvey (5-7, 6.70 ERA), Steven Matz (2-7, 6.08 ERA), and Robert Gsellman (8-7, 5.19 ERA) all failing to live up to expectations (in Syndergaard's case, through no fault of his own). Bringing in veteran Jason Vargas, who missed time to injuries in 2015 and 2016 but who has otherwise made at least 24 starts six times since 2010. Right now, the Mets' rotation has plenty of depth, but few sure things beyond Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom. Vargas will likely grab the third spot, and with Matt Harvey seemingly having the inside track to the fourth spot given his track record, that leaves a lot of competition for spot number five. Matz, Gsellman, Seth Lugo, and Zack Wheeler all have starting experience in the majors, as does Chris Flexen (though he's less likely to get a spot). Vargas is coming off a solid season, going 18-11 with a 4.16 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over 32 starts. While I don't particularly care about his 18 wins, the fact that he made 32 starts was a good sign and his 17.7% strikeout rate was the highest full-season mark of his career. Though typically more of a fly ball pitcher, he was also able to just barely set a career full-season high with a 40.3% ground ball rate (just above his 40.2% rates in both 2012 and 2013). This isn't a top of the rotation pitcher, but it is a bit of consistency in a Mets rotation that badly needs it. For his career, the former LSU Tiger and Long Beach State Dirtbag is 85-81 with a 4.17 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP over 248 games (228 starts) since 2005.
Two years, $16 million
The Mets' rotation was plagued by injuries and inconsistency last season, with Noah Syndergaard (just seven starts), Matt Harvey (5-7, 6.70 ERA), Steven Matz (2-7, 6.08 ERA), and Robert Gsellman (8-7, 5.19 ERA) all failing to live up to expectations (in Syndergaard's case, through no fault of his own). Bringing in veteran Jason Vargas, who missed time to injuries in 2015 and 2016 but who has otherwise made at least 24 starts six times since 2010. Right now, the Mets' rotation has plenty of depth, but few sure things beyond Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom. Vargas will likely grab the third spot, and with Matt Harvey seemingly having the inside track to the fourth spot given his track record, that leaves a lot of competition for spot number five. Matz, Gsellman, Seth Lugo, and Zack Wheeler all have starting experience in the majors, as does Chris Flexen (though he's less likely to get a spot). Vargas is coming off a solid season, going 18-11 with a 4.16 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over 32 starts. While I don't particularly care about his 18 wins, the fact that he made 32 starts was a good sign and his 17.7% strikeout rate was the highest full-season mark of his career. Though typically more of a fly ball pitcher, he was also able to just barely set a career full-season high with a 40.3% ground ball rate (just above his 40.2% rates in both 2012 and 2013). This isn't a top of the rotation pitcher, but it is a bit of consistency in a Mets rotation that badly needs it. For his career, the former LSU Tiger and Long Beach State Dirtbag is 85-81 with a 4.17 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP over 248 games (228 starts) since 2005.
Blue Jays Sign Jaime Garcia
Jaime Garcia: 5-10, 4.41 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 129/64 K/BB, 157 innings
One year, $8 million
The Blue Jays made a fairly similar signing to the Orioles' Andrew Cashner deal by bringing in veteran lefty Jaime Garcia. While the Blue Jays' rotation isn't nearly as atrocious as their AL East rival's, the team did lack a dependable fifth starter behind Marcus Stroman, J.A. Happ, Aaron Sanchez, and Marco Estrada. Like Cashner, Garcia has been dominant at times; in 2010, he was 13-8 with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over 28 starts, and in 2015, he was 10-6 with a 2.43 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over 20 starts. He has also been down; since 2016, Garcia is 15-23 with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP over 59 games (57 starts). He's unlikely to climb back to the heights he reached in 2016 and 2017, but he should be a valuable fifth starter at the very least (as long as he stays healthy), and could be a mid-rotation force if all goes well. For his career, the lefty out of the Rio Grande Valley is 67-55 with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP over 185 games (174 starts). Interestingly, after spending 2008-2016 all with the Cardinals, the Blue Jays will be his fourth team in two seasons (he pitched for the Braves, Twins, and Yankees in 2017).
Thursday, February 15, 2018
Orioles Add Andrew Cashner to Empty Rotation
Andrew Cashner: 11-11, 3.40 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 86/64 K/BB, 166.2 IP
Two years, $16 million, $10 million vesting player option for 2020 for 340 total innings pitched
Starting pitching has been a nightmare recently for the Orioles. Last season, their starters finished with a 5.70 ERA, the worst in all of baseball, and many of those starters aren't even returning. Gone are Ubaldo Jimenez, Jeremy Hellickson, Chris Tillman, and Wade Miley, leaving only Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy as returners with established starting experience. This is where Andrew Cashner, an eight year veteran with an inconsistent track record, comes in. He has certainly had his ups; from 2013-2014, he went 15-16 with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 50 games (45 starts) for the Padres. However, there have also been lows; between the Padres and Marlins in 2016, he went 5-11 with a 5.25 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP over 28 games (27 starts). 2017 was somewhat of a middle ground, as his 3.40 ERA was nice to look at, but he was helped by a .267 BABIP and that 86/64 strikeout to walk ratio in 166.2 innings was just a bit frightening. His tumbling strikeout rate, which has dropped from 20.5% in 2015 to 19.1% in 2016 to 12.2% in 2017, is likely a sign that Cashner isn't due for a long term deal, but he does a good-enough job of keeping the ball on the ground so he should be able to handle Camden Yards. Either way, he's a huge help to a rotation that looks to be headed by Kevin Gausman (11-12, 4.68 ERA) and Dylan Bundy (13-9, 4.24 ERA), with the final two spots to be made up of some combination of Gabriel Ynoa, Alec Asher, Miguel Castro, and possibly Mike Wright or Nestor Cortes, none of whom have spent even half a season starting in the major leagues. Hunter Harvey's eventual arrival can't come soon enough for Orioles fans. For his career, Cashner, a former TCU Horned Frog, is 42-64 with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over 230 games (137 appearances).
Two years, $16 million, $10 million vesting player option for 2020 for 340 total innings pitched
Starting pitching has been a nightmare recently for the Orioles. Last season, their starters finished with a 5.70 ERA, the worst in all of baseball, and many of those starters aren't even returning. Gone are Ubaldo Jimenez, Jeremy Hellickson, Chris Tillman, and Wade Miley, leaving only Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy as returners with established starting experience. This is where Andrew Cashner, an eight year veteran with an inconsistent track record, comes in. He has certainly had his ups; from 2013-2014, he went 15-16 with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 50 games (45 starts) for the Padres. However, there have also been lows; between the Padres and Marlins in 2016, he went 5-11 with a 5.25 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP over 28 games (27 starts). 2017 was somewhat of a middle ground, as his 3.40 ERA was nice to look at, but he was helped by a .267 BABIP and that 86/64 strikeout to walk ratio in 166.2 innings was just a bit frightening. His tumbling strikeout rate, which has dropped from 20.5% in 2015 to 19.1% in 2016 to 12.2% in 2017, is likely a sign that Cashner isn't due for a long term deal, but he does a good-enough job of keeping the ball on the ground so he should be able to handle Camden Yards. Either way, he's a huge help to a rotation that looks to be headed by Kevin Gausman (11-12, 4.68 ERA) and Dylan Bundy (13-9, 4.24 ERA), with the final two spots to be made up of some combination of Gabriel Ynoa, Alec Asher, Miguel Castro, and possibly Mike Wright or Nestor Cortes, none of whom have spent even half a season starting in the major leagues. Hunter Harvey's eventual arrival can't come soon enough for Orioles fans. For his career, Cashner, a former TCU Horned Frog, is 42-64 with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over 230 games (137 appearances).
Saturday, February 10, 2018
Cubs Sign Yu Darvish
Yu Darvish: 10-12, 3.86 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 209/58 K/BB, 186.2 IP
Six years, $126 million, up to $24 million in incentives
We didn't think it would take until mid-February, but Yu Darvish signed the first nine-figure contract of the offseason. The Cubs ran away with the NL Central in 2016 and 2017, and they have quietly retooled their pitching staff to ensure it happens again in 2018, adding Tyler Chatwood, Drew Smyly, Brandon Morrow, and Steve Cishek in addition to Darvish while the Cardinals added Marcell Ozuna and the Brewers picked up Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, and Jhoulys Chacin. Darvish joins one of the better rotations in baseball, one that features Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, and some combination of Drew Smyly/Eddie Butler/Mike Montgomery. Darvish is on somewhat of a downward career trajectory at least in terms of ERA, as it jumped from 2.83 in 2013 and 3.06 in 2014 to 3.41 in 2016 and 3.86 in 2017 (he sat out 2015 with Tommy John surgery), and his FIP (3.83) and xFIP (3.62) were both career worsts. However, between his time in the AL in Texas (first 22 starts) and the NL in Los Angeles (9 starts), his ERA (4.01 to 3.44), FIP (3.99 to 3.38), and xFIP (3.82 to 3.19) all dropped dramatically, and he is still a very useful mid-rotation starter. Those are hard to find nowadays, and in short demand, $126 million is a fair price. People may be worried about his poor World Series performance (eight earned runs in 3.1 innings over two starts), but small samples tend to get more credit than they deserve, and the bad starts are probably more due to random chance than any kind of inability to perform in the clutch or negative career trend. For his career, Darvish is 56-42 with a 3.42 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 1021/307 strikeout to walk ratio in 131 starts. 31 years old now, he'll be 37 at the end of the deal.
Six years, $126 million, up to $24 million in incentives
We didn't think it would take until mid-February, but Yu Darvish signed the first nine-figure contract of the offseason. The Cubs ran away with the NL Central in 2016 and 2017, and they have quietly retooled their pitching staff to ensure it happens again in 2018, adding Tyler Chatwood, Drew Smyly, Brandon Morrow, and Steve Cishek in addition to Darvish while the Cardinals added Marcell Ozuna and the Brewers picked up Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, and Jhoulys Chacin. Darvish joins one of the better rotations in baseball, one that features Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, and some combination of Drew Smyly/Eddie Butler/Mike Montgomery. Darvish is on somewhat of a downward career trajectory at least in terms of ERA, as it jumped from 2.83 in 2013 and 3.06 in 2014 to 3.41 in 2016 and 3.86 in 2017 (he sat out 2015 with Tommy John surgery), and his FIP (3.83) and xFIP (3.62) were both career worsts. However, between his time in the AL in Texas (first 22 starts) and the NL in Los Angeles (9 starts), his ERA (4.01 to 3.44), FIP (3.99 to 3.38), and xFIP (3.82 to 3.19) all dropped dramatically, and he is still a very useful mid-rotation starter. Those are hard to find nowadays, and in short demand, $126 million is a fair price. People may be worried about his poor World Series performance (eight earned runs in 3.1 innings over two starts), but small samples tend to get more credit than they deserve, and the bad starts are probably more due to random chance than any kind of inability to perform in the clutch or negative career trend. For his career, Darvish is 56-42 with a 3.42 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 1021/307 strikeout to walk ratio in 131 starts. 31 years old now, he'll be 37 at the end of the deal.
Monday, February 5, 2018
Mets Fill Infield Hole With Todd Frazier
Todd Frazier: 27 HR, .213/.344/.428, 4 SB, 108 wRC+, 3.0 fWAR
Two years, $17 million
The Mets have added Todd Frazier on a two year deal, bringing in the Jersey kid from Toms River to man third base while Asdrubal Cabrera slides to second. Frazier, despite batting .213 in 2017, was much better than you might think, as his .344 on-base percentage was actually a career high and he blasted 27 home runs. Together, it amounted to a 108 wRC+, comfortably above league average and further proving that batting average does not matter. Frazier could also be even better in 2018, considering his .226 BABIP was the second lowest among all qualified hitters in baseball (just behind Rougned Odor's .224). While his .271 career BABIP is quite low (and career BABIP is less indicative of luck than single-season BABIP), he was still incredibly unlucky in 2017, and Statcast tagged him with an xwOBA (expected wOBA based on quality of contact) of .352, plenty higher than his actual mark of .335, so that bounce-back is completely possible. He walks, he hits for power, and his defense isn't half bad either, so $17 million over two years is certainly worthwhile for the Mets. Personally, I think New York could be better than expected in 2018, but that is only if they stay healthy. Frazier joins Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, and Jay Bruce among established hitters in the Mets' lineup, and young guys like Amed Rosario and Dom Smith could supplement them well. On the mound, there are a lot of question marks, but if everything breaks right, this team could win a Wild Card. For his career, Frazier has 175 home runs, a .245/.321/.459 slash line, and 21.2 fWAR over 938 games.
Two years, $17 million
The Mets have added Todd Frazier on a two year deal, bringing in the Jersey kid from Toms River to man third base while Asdrubal Cabrera slides to second. Frazier, despite batting .213 in 2017, was much better than you might think, as his .344 on-base percentage was actually a career high and he blasted 27 home runs. Together, it amounted to a 108 wRC+, comfortably above league average and further proving that batting average does not matter. Frazier could also be even better in 2018, considering his .226 BABIP was the second lowest among all qualified hitters in baseball (just behind Rougned Odor's .224). While his .271 career BABIP is quite low (and career BABIP is less indicative of luck than single-season BABIP), he was still incredibly unlucky in 2017, and Statcast tagged him with an xwOBA (expected wOBA based on quality of contact) of .352, plenty higher than his actual mark of .335, so that bounce-back is completely possible. He walks, he hits for power, and his defense isn't half bad either, so $17 million over two years is certainly worthwhile for the Mets. Personally, I think New York could be better than expected in 2018, but that is only if they stay healthy. Frazier joins Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, and Jay Bruce among established hitters in the Mets' lineup, and young guys like Amed Rosario and Dom Smith could supplement them well. On the mound, there are a lot of question marks, but if everything breaks right, this team could win a Wild Card. For his career, Frazier has 175 home runs, a .245/.321/.459 slash line, and 21.2 fWAR over 938 games.
Wednesday, January 31, 2018
Diamondbacks Add Quietly Good Alex Avila
Alex Avila: 14 HR, .264/.387/.447, 0 SB, 124 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR
2 years, $8.25 million, up to $500,000 in incentives
In an extremely competitive NL West, the Diamondbacks' roster could stack up with the other teams everywhere except behind the plate. Jeff Mathis is great defensively and even better when it comes to handling pitching staffs, but he can't hit, having never posted a wRC+ above 68 or a wOBA above .277. That is where Alex Avila comes in, coming off a very good rebound year in which he slashed .264/.387/.447 with 14 home runs in 112 games, good for a 124 wRC+ and 2.5 fWAR. His success was partially driven off an extremely high .382 BABIP (versus a career .325 mark), but if you look closer, his big year was more about skill than about luck. Among hitters with at least 350 plate appearances, according to Fangraphs, his 48.7% hard hit rate was the second highest in baseball only to J.D. Martinez, while his 6.7% soft-hit rate was the lowest in baseball by more than three percentage points. His .395 xwOBA (compiled by Statcast, measuring what he conceivably should have hit based on his quality of contact) was the sixth highest in baseball, behind only such names as Aaron Judge (.441), J.D. Martinez (.423), Joey Votto (.421), Mike Trout (.417), and Nelson Cruz (.395) and one spot ahead of Freddie Freeman (.393). To sum up all the numbers and jargon, Avila very quietly hit the snot out of the ball. He also walked at a 16.5% rate, good for fifth in baseball behind only Votto, Judge, Trout, and Matt Carpenter. That's not a bad list. Of course, the downside to Avila is that this was his first season slugging over .400 since 2011, as he has been good about maintaining isolated power but has struggled to hit for average. Still, he always walks, and he is coming off the second best year of his career. Don't overlook what Avila can contribute to the Arizona offense. For his career, the Alabama alumnus has 87 home runs, a .243/.351/.401 slash line, and 14.4 fWAR over 852 games.
2 years, $8.25 million, up to $500,000 in incentives
In an extremely competitive NL West, the Diamondbacks' roster could stack up with the other teams everywhere except behind the plate. Jeff Mathis is great defensively and even better when it comes to handling pitching staffs, but he can't hit, having never posted a wRC+ above 68 or a wOBA above .277. That is where Alex Avila comes in, coming off a very good rebound year in which he slashed .264/.387/.447 with 14 home runs in 112 games, good for a 124 wRC+ and 2.5 fWAR. His success was partially driven off an extremely high .382 BABIP (versus a career .325 mark), but if you look closer, his big year was more about skill than about luck. Among hitters with at least 350 plate appearances, according to Fangraphs, his 48.7% hard hit rate was the second highest in baseball only to J.D. Martinez, while his 6.7% soft-hit rate was the lowest in baseball by more than three percentage points. His .395 xwOBA (compiled by Statcast, measuring what he conceivably should have hit based on his quality of contact) was the sixth highest in baseball, behind only such names as Aaron Judge (.441), J.D. Martinez (.423), Joey Votto (.421), Mike Trout (.417), and Nelson Cruz (.395) and one spot ahead of Freddie Freeman (.393). To sum up all the numbers and jargon, Avila very quietly hit the snot out of the ball. He also walked at a 16.5% rate, good for fifth in baseball behind only Votto, Judge, Trout, and Matt Carpenter. That's not a bad list. Of course, the downside to Avila is that this was his first season slugging over .400 since 2011, as he has been good about maintaining isolated power but has struggled to hit for average. Still, he always walks, and he is coming off the second best year of his career. Don't overlook what Avila can contribute to the Arizona offense. For his career, the Alabama alumnus has 87 home runs, a .243/.351/.401 slash line, and 14.4 fWAR over 852 games.
Thursday, January 25, 2018
Brewers Add Lorenzo Cain to Mega-Outfield
Lorenzo Cain: 15 HR, .300/.363/.440, 26 SB, 115 wRC+, 4.1 fWAR
Five years, $80 million
The second of two huge additions to their outfield, the Brewers added Lorenzo Cain to patrol centerfield. With Christian Yelich in right field and Ryan Braun in left, that pushes Domingo Santana (30 HR, .371 OBP) and Keon Broxton (20 HR, 21 SB) to the bench. The Brewers will likely trade one, but this puts them in a very enviable position with their outfield. Cain is a prototypical leadoff guy, posting on-base percentages above .360 in two of the past three seasons while stealing more than 25 bases in three of the past four. He even had some power this past season, knocking 15 home runs for the second time in three years, showing a true all-around skill set. He turns 32 in April, so he isn't the youngest speed guy, but the career high walk rate in 2017 (8.4%) is a good sign and he was worth 4.1 fWAR this past season, the third highest mark of his career. For his career, the former Brewer (who was traded to Kansas City way back in the Zack Greinke deal) has 57 home runs, a .290/.342/.421 slash line, 127 stolen bases, and 23.5 fWAR over 756 games.
Five years, $80 million
The second of two huge additions to their outfield, the Brewers added Lorenzo Cain to patrol centerfield. With Christian Yelich in right field and Ryan Braun in left, that pushes Domingo Santana (30 HR, .371 OBP) and Keon Broxton (20 HR, 21 SB) to the bench. The Brewers will likely trade one, but this puts them in a very enviable position with their outfield. Cain is a prototypical leadoff guy, posting on-base percentages above .360 in two of the past three seasons while stealing more than 25 bases in three of the past four. He even had some power this past season, knocking 15 home runs for the second time in three years, showing a true all-around skill set. He turns 32 in April, so he isn't the youngest speed guy, but the career high walk rate in 2017 (8.4%) is a good sign and he was worth 4.1 fWAR this past season, the third highest mark of his career. For his career, the former Brewer (who was traded to Kansas City way back in the Zack Greinke deal) has 57 home runs, a .290/.342/.421 slash line, 127 stolen bases, and 23.5 fWAR over 756 games.
Saturday, January 13, 2018
Twins Sign Addison Reed
Addison Reed: 2-3, 2.84 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 76/15 K/BB, 76 IP
Two years, $17 million
The Twins got a bargain on Addison Reed, especially compared to what some similar relievers got (the Rockies paid Wade Davis, Jake McGee, and Bryan Shaw $52 million, $27 million, and $27 million, respectively, to come to Colorado). Reed is coming off a superb pair of seasons, including a 2016 where he put up a 1.97 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and a 91/13 strikeout to walk ratio for the Mets. He was still great in 2017, posting a 2.84 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 76/15 strikeout to walk ratio for the Mets and Red Sox, and at 29 years old, he's fairly young as far as free agents go. The Twins already added Fernando Rodney to the bullpen, but Reed is a much bigger addition and he will likely take over ninth inning duties assuming the Twins don't do the smart thing and get rid of the idea of a closer. For a small market team like Minnesota, saving money and going for on-field value rather than name value is very smart. For his career, Reed is 18-21 with a 3.40 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 425/104 strikeout to walk ratio in 410 games.
Two years, $17 million
The Twins got a bargain on Addison Reed, especially compared to what some similar relievers got (the Rockies paid Wade Davis, Jake McGee, and Bryan Shaw $52 million, $27 million, and $27 million, respectively, to come to Colorado). Reed is coming off a superb pair of seasons, including a 2016 where he put up a 1.97 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and a 91/13 strikeout to walk ratio for the Mets. He was still great in 2017, posting a 2.84 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 76/15 strikeout to walk ratio for the Mets and Red Sox, and at 29 years old, he's fairly young as far as free agents go. The Twins already added Fernando Rodney to the bullpen, but Reed is a much bigger addition and he will likely take over ninth inning duties assuming the Twins don't do the smart thing and get rid of the idea of a closer. For a small market team like Minnesota, saving money and going for on-field value rather than name value is very smart. For his career, Reed is 18-21 with a 3.40 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 425/104 strikeout to walk ratio in 410 games.
Wednesday, January 10, 2018
Mets Sign Jay Bruce
Jay Bruce: 36 HR, .254/.324/.508, 1 SB, 118 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR
Three years, $39 million, annual five team no-trade clause
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