Sunday, February 18, 2018

Padres Land Eric Hosmer

Eric Hosmer: 25 HR, .318/.385/.498, 6 SB, 135 wRC+, 4.1 fWAR
Eight years, $144 million (with opt-out after five years, $105 million)

The second $100 million domino to fall is first baseman Eric Hosmer, who signed with the Padres for eight years and $144 million (though the contract does include an opt-out after five years and $105 million). Personally, I'm not a big fan of this signing for the Padres, as Hosmer had a great year last year (25 HR, .318/.385/.498), but he hasn't been even remotely consistent during his career, fluctuating between seasons of high value (4.1 fWAR in 2017) and no value (-0.1 fWAR in 2016), so this is a big gamble by the Padres. He isn't a butcher at first base, being a mediocre-to-average defender at first base puts his defensive value pretty much right at zero. The value is in the bat, where he hits for moderate power and gets on base at an adequate rate, but both of those come and go and he has never been elite at either. He combined both in 2017 with that .385 on base percentage and .498 slugging percentage, good for a 135 wRC+, but sometimes neither is there, and that's when he's basically just your average player. Now, don't get me wrong, I love where the Padres are going as a franchise. Fernando Tatis Jr. and MacKenzie Gore are truly elite prospects, and Michael Baez, Adrian Morejon, and Luis Urias have star potential as well. The Padres did do well to get a name-brand bat onto a team that really lacks flashy, fan-drawing names outside of Wil Myers (who will move back to the outfield with Hosmer on board), even if they did overpay to get it. If he proves 2017 wasn't a fluke and that he can consistently be a 3-4 win player, this contract won't look so bad after all, but he does suck a lot of financial flexibility out of a team that will be contending soon. For his career, the South Florida native has 127 home runs, a .284/.342/.439 slash line, and 9.9 fWAR over 1048 games.

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