Monday, February 19, 2018

One 2018 Breakout Star to Watch for Each Team: AL

At this time last year, your typical baseball fans knew little of Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Joey Gallo, Robbie Ray, Andrew Benintendi, and Matt Olson. Now, that's a pretty impressive list of names. Looking forward to 2018, here is one player on each AL team that could break out and be a star by the end of the season. Age for the 2018 season is given in parentheses, NL edition coming soon.

Baltimore Orioles: C Chance Sisco (Age 23)
MLB: 2 HR, .333/.455/.778, 0 SB, 220 wRC+ in 10 games
AAA: 7 HR, .267/.340/.395, 2 SB, 107 wRC+ in 97 games
First off, it is much easier for a guy with a name like Chance Sisco to catch the media's attention than for someone like Brad Hand (you're doing great in San Diego, Brad), but Sisco is much more than his cool name. He obviously will never match the numbers he put up in that brief stint in Baltimore in 2017, but if he knocks incumbent Caleb Joseph off of catcher, he could compete for a Rookie of the Year Award. Good enough to stick behind the plate at the major league level, Sisco has a very good feel for hitting, as he has shown with high on-base percentages throughout his career, buoyed by a 10.4% walk rate. That should help him transition well to major league pitching, and with Camden Yards' short fences, his average power could play up. Catchers who can hit are hard to come by, so Sisco should be a very familiar face in Baltimore by the end of the season.
Others: OF Austin Hays, RHP Gabriel Ynoa, OF D.J. Stewart

Boston Red Sox: 3B Rafael Devers (Age 21)
MLB: 10 HR, .284/.338/.482, 3 SB, 111 wRC+ in 58 games
AA/AAA: 20 HR, .311/.377/.578, 0 SB, 159 wRC+ in 86 games
Devers had 92 too many at bats in 2017 to be considered a rookie for 2018, but that doesn't mean he won't be in the spotlight. After demolishing AA pitching (18 HR, .300/.369/.575) and AAA pitching (2 HR, .400/.447/.600), Devers earned a call up to Boston at just 20 years old, and he kept hitting. In 58 games, he knocked ten home runs and slashed .284/.338/.482, firmly establishing himself as a future star for the Red Sox. If he merely continues those rates over a full season in 2018, he'll end up with more than 20 home runs while putting his name into All Star consideration. If he builds on them, we could see a 30 home run season with on-base percentages north of .350, thrusting him into the "star" category at 21 years old. The next wave of talent is very much here in Boston, and it will be led by Devers, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Andrew Benintendi.
Others: 1B Sam Travis, LHP Jalen Beeks, C Blake Swihart

New York Yankees: 3B Miguel Andujar (Age 23)
MLB: 0 HR, .571/.625/.857, 1 SB, 298 wRC+ in 5 games
AA/AAA: 16 HR, .315/.352/.498, 5 SB, 132 wRC+ in 125 games
The Yankees have a chance to have back to back AL Rookies of the Year. Miguel Andujar hit well at AA Trenton (7 HR, .312/.342/.494) and better at AAA Scranton Wilkes-Barre (9 HR, .317/.364/.502), then had just about the best eight plate appearance MLB debut you can possibly have (two singles, two doubles, walk, stolen base, no strikeouts). An eight PA sample doesn't mean much, but it does show that Andujar at least won't be overmatched at the major league level, and the Yankees realize that. By trading Chase Headley, the Yankees have opened up a lane for Andujar to play and make an impact, which says a lot about what they think about the young man.
Others: RHP Chance Adams, SS Gleyber Torres, RHP Domingo German

Tampa Bay Rays: RHP Brent Honeywell (Age 23)
AA/AAA: 13-9, 3.49 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 172/35 K/BB, 136.2 IP in 26 starts
The Rays have a ton of players who could break out next year, particularly in the middle infield and starting pitching departments, but perhaps none have a better chance to make an impact than Brent Honeywell. The 22 year old seems like he has been a top prospect forever, and he seems ready after 24 successful starts at AAA Durham (12-8, 3.64 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 152/31 K/BB). With a good spring training, Honeywell and his famous screwball can crack the Tampa Bay rotation, and from there he could win 15 games in 2018 (not that wins accurately reflect his performance).
Others: OF Jake Bauers, SS Christian Arroyo, SS Willy Adames, RHP Jose De Leon
**Update: Honeywell tore his UCL and will miss the season, so scratch that

Toronto Blue Jays: OF Teoscar Hernandez (Age 25)
MLB: 8 HR, .261/.305/.602, 0 SB, 132 wRC+ in 27 games
AAA: 18 HR, .265/.351/.490, 16 SB, 120 wRC+ in 105 games
The Blue Jays have lots of depth, but the good news for Hernandez is that aside from Kevin Pillar, nobody looks to really have a lock on a starting spot in the outfield. Hernandez got some MLB exposure this past season and he made the most of it, slashing .261/.305/.602 with eight home runs and six doubles in just 27 games. The 36/6 strikeout to walk ratio leaves a bit to be desired, but the 102/47 ratio at AAA is a little better and he can hopefully get it going in 2018. The power he showed was very promising as he finally looks to be getting the most out of his lanky, 6'2" frame, and he could go 20-20 in 2018 if everything breaks right and he snags a starting spot. With a name like Teoscar Hernandez, he'll get noticed sooner rather than later.
Others: OF Anthony Alford, LHP Ryan Borucki, LHP Thomas Pannone

Chicago White Sox: 2B Yoan Moncada (Age 22-23)
MLB: 8 HR, .231/.338/.412, 3 SB, 104 wRC+ in 54 games
AAA: 12 HR, .282/.377/.447, 17 SB, 130 wRC+ in 80 games
With the White Sox' excellent farm sytem, there are plenty of young players who could make names for themselves in 2018, but the top has to be Yoan Moncada. The Cuban got his first extended MLB trial last year, slashing .231/.338/.412 with eight home runs in 54 games. Especially promising was the 12.6% walk rate, showing that he is ready to hit major league pitching and could be primed for a breakout. He also kicked it up a notch late in the season, slashing .299/.365/.517 with five of his eight home runs from September 9th onwards. In the minors, he has hit for contact and power while showing off plus speed, with some experience under his belt now, he can put that to good use in the majors.
Others: RHP Carson Fulmer, RHP Lucas Giolito, RHP Michael Kopech

Cleveland Indians: OF Bradley Zimmer (Age 25)
MLB: 8 HR, .241/.307/.385, 18 SB, 81 wRC+ in 101 games
AAA: 5 HR, .294/.371/.532, 9 SB, 149 wRC+ in 33 games
Bradley Zimmer played nearly a full season for the Indians in 2017, slashing .241/.307/.385 with eight home runs and 18 stolen bases in 101 games, but there is reason to believe that was only a sneak preview of what is to come in 2018. Zimmer showed pop, swatting 15 doubles and a pair of triples in addition to his eight home runs, as well as smart speed, getting caught stealing just once in nineteen attempts. While he does strike out a lot and will likely continue to do so throughout his MLB career, the rest of the tools point to him being a very productive player for Cleveland for a long time. That power/speed combination is hard to come by, especially from a 6'5" frame, and he has a very good chance of putting it all together in 2018 and becoming yet another young star on this Cleveland team.
Others: C/3B Francisco Mejia, LHP Shawn Morimando, 3B Yandy Diaz

Detroit Tigers: 3B Jeimer Candelario (Age 24)
MLB: 3 HR, .283/.359/.425, 0 SB, 111 wRC+ in 38 games
AAA: 15 HR, .265/.343/.484, 1 SB, 115 wRC+ in 110 games
A third baseman, Jeimer Candelario was blocked in Chicago by Kris Bryant, so trading him to Detroit and shifting incumbent third baseman Nick Castellanos to the outfield made perfect sense. Now, the 24 year old with a career .292/.374/.507 slash line at AAA finally has a shot, and he is looking to make the most of it. He brings power and patience to the batters' box, and with the spot open for him, he could put up a big season.
Others: OF Victor Reyes, IF Dixon Machado, OF JaCoby Jones

Kansas City Royals: SS Raul Mondesi (Age 22-23)
MLB: 1 HR, .170/.214/.245, 5 SB, 17 wRC+ in 25 games
AAA: 13 HR, .305/.340/.539, 21 SB, 119 wRC+ in 85 games
Could 2018 finally be Raul Mondesi's year? The shortstop has been a top prospect seemingly forever, cracking MLB.com's top 50 prospect lists in 2013 (#47), 2014 (#38), and 2015 (#33) before losing eligibility in 2016. Still just 22 years old, Mondesi is fast, a slick fielder, and competent with the bat. He figured out AAA in 2017, slashing .305/.340/.539, but he has yet to apply that to the majors, slashing a paltry .181/.226/.271 in 72 career games between 2016 and 2017. He was rushed through the minors, playing every level at a very young age, and it seems that that may not have been the best way to develop him, but if the AAA numbers are to be believed, he may have finally figured it out. The 14 home runs between AAA and the majors crushed his previous career high of nine, despite the fact that he posted the highest ground ball rate (46.6%) of his minor league career. Shortstop Alcides Escobar is back in Kansas City, but manager Ned Yost has stated that Mondesi has a shot at starting at second base.
Others: OF Jorge Soler, RHP Sam Gaviglio, RHP Trevor Oaks

Minnesota Twins: CF Byron Buxton (Age 24)
MLB: 16 HR, .253/.314/.413, 29 SB, 90 wRC+ in 140 games
AAA: 2 HR, .417/.462/.917, 0 SB, 283 wRC+ in 3 games
Once considered the top prospect in all of baseball, it has taken Byron Buxton's bat a little longer than anticipated to develop, but he showed hints of greatness despite the mediocre slash line. First off, Buxton is arguably the best defender in baseball, and his name absolutely deserves to be mentioned up there with Andrelton Simmons, Billy Hamilton, Nolan Arenado, and Yadier Molina already. That's already evident and fully proven. His base running is great, too, as he stole 29 bases in 30 attempts in 2017, giving him the third most stolen bases ever in a single season among players with zero or one times caught stealing. So he's already elite in two categories, but his bat is uninspiring at best. However, there is reason to believe the bat could come along in 2018, making him – honestly – an MVP candidate if it does, and it may already have. As of July 3rd, he was slashing .195/.272/.280 with just four home runs in 78 games. However, from the Fourth of July onwards, Buxton slashed .314/.359/.553 with 12 home runs in 61 games. Combine that with top notch defense and base running over a full season, and you absolutely have yourself an MVP candidate. If that second-half offensive outburst was for real, then Buxton could be a superstar.
Others: LHP Stephen Gonsalves, IF Nick Gordon, RHP Fernando Romero

Houston Astros: RHP David Paulino (Age 24)
MLB: 2-0, 6.52 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 34/7 K/BB, 29 IP in 6 starts
AAA: 0-1, 4.50 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 13/9 K/BB, 14 IP in 3 starts
Coming off a World Series Championship, the Astros are again arguably baseball's best team, so it will be hard for anyone new to break through and make an impact. That said, anything can happen, and former top prospect David Paulino would like to be one to make something happen. The 6'7" righty missed most of 2017 due to a PED suspension as well as bone spur issues, but he's expected to be ready for spring training. If Paulino can get his head in the right place (in addition to the 2017 PED suspension, he was briefly suspended in 2016 for "violating team policy"), there is immense talent here. He dominated the upper minors in 2016 to the tune of a 2.00 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 106/19 strikeout to walk ratio in 90 innings, and if it hadn't been for the suspensions, he could have already established himself as a known major league commodity. The Houston rotation looks set with Dallas Keuchel, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Lance McCullers, and Charlie Morton, but watch out for David Paulino if any of those guys get hurt.
Others: OF Derek Fisher, RHP Francis Martes, 3B J.D. Davis

Los Angeles Angels: RHP/OF Shohei Ohtani (Age 23-24)
NPB Hitting: 8 HR, .332/.403/.540, 0 SB in 65 games
NPB Pitching: 3-2, 3.20 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 29/19 K/BB, 25.1 IP in 5 starts
This one is pretty straightforward. We all know who Shohei Ohtani is and it will be nearly impossible for him to live up to the incredibly lofty expectations placed on him, but he's going to try and we are more than excited to watch. Ohtani missed much of 2017 to injury, but back in a healthy 2016 season, he went 10-4 with a 1.86 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over 21 starts on the mound while cracking 22 home runs and slashing .322/.416/.588 at the plate in Japan despite turning 22 halfway through the season. The general consensus is he is a better pitching prospect than hitting prospect, and I agree, and he'll likely post an ERA somewhere in the low to mid threes as a starter. At the plate, he does have strikeout issues which could make the transition a bit difficult, but he has 20 homer power and will be fun to watch as he looks to rack up numbers on both sides of the ball.
Others: LHP Andrew Heaney, RHP Jaime Barria, RHP Luke Bard

Oakland Athletics: RHP Jharel Cotton (Age 26)
MLB: 9-10, 5.58 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 105/53 K/BB, 129 IP in 24 starts
AAA: 3-0, 2.95 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 28/4 K/BB, 21.1 IP in 4 games (3 starts)
Jharel Cotton and his plus-plus changeup made a great first impression in a five game debut in 2016, going 2-0 with a 2.15 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and a 23/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 29.1 innings, but the going was a bit rougher in 2017. He was absolutely dominating at times (7 shutout innings on 2 hits, 3 walks, 6 strikeouts against the Royals on April 10th) and got blown up at others (gave up at least five earned runs in eight of his 24 starts), finishing 9-10 with a 5.58 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. He still possesses that wicked changeup and he commands everything fairly well, so if he can just get more consistent with his other pitches, Cotton could be the best starter on the A's this year.
Others: SS Franklin Barreto, RHP Daniel Gossett, RHP Paul Blackburn

Seattle Mariners: LHP Marco Gonzales (Age 26)
MLB: 1-1, 6.08 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, 32/11 K/BB, 40 IP in 11 games (8 starts)
High A/AAA: 8-4, 3.02 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 73/22 K/BB, 86.1 IP in 14 starts
The 19th overall pick of the 2013 draft out of Gonzaga, Gonzales missed chunks of 2015 with shoulder woes and all of 2016 to Tommy John surgery, then spent much of 2017 in AAA building himself back up. In them minors this year, Gonzales went 8-4 with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP over 14 starts, striking out 73 and walking 22 in 86.1 innings, all but six of which were in the hitter-friendly AAA Pacific Coast League. He was less effective in eight starts and three relief appearances in the majors, going 1-1 with a 6.08 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP in 40 innings. It's clear that Gonzales is immensely talented, but having been unable to keep his arm in commission for long stretches at a time, he hasn't really gotten a chance to get in his rhythm. Fully healthy for 2018, he could surprise as an effective starter for Seattle this year.
Others: 1B Mike Ford, RHP Andrew Moore, 1B Dan Vogelbach

Texas Rangers: OF Willie Calhoun (Age 23)
MLB: 1 HR, .265/.324/.353, 0 SB, 80 wRC+ in 13 games
AAA: 31 HR, .300/.355/.572, 4 SB, 133 wRC+ in 128 games
Last year, it was Joey Gallo posting a Texas-sized breakout season, and this year, Willie Calhoun looks like the most likely candidate to follow in his footsteps. Despite standing just 5'8", Calhoun packs a ton of punch for a little guy, crushing 70 home runs in his three pro seasons, with 11 in 2015, 27 in 2016, and 32 in 2017. He absolutely raked in the hitter-friendly AAA Pacific Coast League, cracking 31 home runs and slashing .300/.355/.572, walking in only 7.9% of his plate appearances but also striking out in just 11.4%. With nothing left to prove in the minors, there is space for him in the Rangers outfield to prove that he can translate that success to the majors, and he did slash a respectable .265/.324/.353 in a 13 game test. Again, in a small sample size, the 5.4% walk rate was low, but his 18.9% strikeout rate wasn't terrible for a 22 year old getting his very first taste of big league pitching. In a shallow Rangers outfield comprising of Calhoun, Nomar Mazara, Delino DeShields Jr., Ryan Rua, Drew Robinson, and occasionally Shin-Soo Choo (who will mostly DH in 2018), Calhoun will get every chance to snag a starting spot.
Others: LHP Yohander Mendez, 1B Ronald Guzman, OF Ryan Rua

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