Showing posts with label Durbin Feltman. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Durbin Feltman. Show all posts

Sunday, November 10, 2019

2020 Prospect Depth Chart: Boston Red Sox

The first farm system in this series, the Red Sox don't have much going on down here. This system is most notable for its pair of mashing corner infielders, Bobby Dalbec and Triston Casas. Those two could join Rafael Devers and Michael Chavis in making up a high-powered middle of the order if everything breaks right, though Dalbec and Casas do come with significant swing and miss concerns. On the pitching side, Bryan Mata has the highest ceiling while Noah Song and Thad Ward are the more balanced options. Song may have to sit out the next two seasons while fulfilling a Naval commitment, but if he can somehow manage to get out of it, he would immediately become the system's top pitching prospect and could be a future #2 or #3 starter. So long story short, it's a barren system, but Dalbec, Casas, Mata, Song, and Ward give the team at least something to look forward to.

Affiliates: AAA Pawtucket Red Sox, AA Portland Sea Dogs, High A Salem Red Sox, Class A Greenville Drive, short season Lowell Spinners, complex level GCL and DSL Red Sox

*Players are split by position and listed in order of a combination of closeness to the majors and prospect status. They are not ordered by prospect status alone.

Catcher
- Jaxx Groshans (2020 Age: 21-22): The Red Sox really only have one catcher in their system that could be considered a true prospect, and that's 2019 fifth rounder Jaxx Groshans. He hit .340/.475/.604 with 12 home runs as a junior at Kansas, then held his own with a .216/.314/.345 slash line, four home runs, and most notably, a strong 34/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games at short season Lowell in his pro debut. He doesn't stand out in any one aspect of his game but with some power, some plate discipline, and decent but improving defense, not to mention a strong work ethic, he has the chance to develop into a backup catcher.
- Keep an eye on: Austin Rei, Kole Cottam

Corner Infield
- Bobby Dalbec (2020 Age: 24-25): Dalbec is arguably the team's most exciting prospect, possessing some of the best raw power in minor league baseball and showcasing it with 59 home runs over the past two seasons. He's always been known for that big raw power, though questions about his ability to get to it at Arizona pushed him down to the fourth round. He's proven the doubters wrong so far in pro ball, getting to it plenty regularly, and he slashed .239/.356/.460 with 27 home runs and a 139/73 strikeout to walk ratio over 135 games between AA Portland and AAA Pawtucket this year. The 31.9% strikeout rate this year was a bit concerning, though he partially offset it with a 13% walk rate. It's still not certain whether he'll be able to get to his power regularly in pro ball with all that swing and miss, but he has the potential to club 30 or more home runs per season with middling on-base percentages. He may be able to handle third base with his cannon arm and average range, but Rafael Devers' presence means he'll probably move to first base, where he should be an above average defender. Expect him in the majors at some point in 2020.
- Triston Casas (2020 Age: 20): Other than Casas being left handed, he has almost the exact same profile as Dalbec. The 2018 first round pick out of a South Forida high school slashed .256/.350/.480 with 20 home runs and a 118/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games mostly at Class A Greenville, showcasing light tower power and elite exit velocities. His swing is a bit long and while it wasn't a massive issue in Class A (23.6% strikeout rate), it might catch up to him a bit at the higher levels. Defensively, he has a similar profile to Dalbec, but he's more likely to end up at first base. Overall, Casas provides a potential 30 homer bat with solid on-base percentages, but he'll have to watch the length in his swing and be sure to keep that strikeout rate in check.
- Devlin Granberg (2020 Age: 24): A sixth round pick out of Dallas Baptist in 2018, Granberg hit .300/.383/.435 in his pro debut then .286/.386/.434 with eight home runs and a 79/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 99 games at Greenville, though he was old for the league and struggled a bit in a 25 game promotion to High A Salem (.222/.273/.289). He's had a long track record of hitting right up until that promotion to High A, but his bat is just a bit light for a first baseman and he'll need to take another step forward to profile there in the majors. He is a competent enough hitter to do so.
- Brandon Howlett (2020 Age: 20): Howlett doesn't have the same upside as Dalbec or Casas, but he has a chance to be a solid platoon or bench player in the future. An up and down high school career left scouts wondering who he would be, and after signing overslot in the 21st round, he slashed .289/.402/.513 in his pro debut last year. That dropped to .231/.341/.356 with eight home runs and a 144/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games at Greenville this year, and we're back to wondering who he is. He has a compact swing and a solid approach at the plate that should help his average raw power translate up, and he could get hot and push his way towards a starting role down the line, but for now Howlett is a bit more of an afterthought in a Red Sox farm system that's at its deepest at this position.
- Danny Diaz (2020 Age: 19): Another guy with a similar profile to Dalbec and Casas, Diaz signed for $1.6 million out of Venezuela in 2017 and flashed some power in his pro debut in the Dominican Summer League in 2018. However, he was limited to 38 games across two complex levels and slashed just .238/.295/.385 with a pair of home runs and a 37/7 strikeout to walk ratio this year. He has big raw power from the right side, but his long swing and so-so plate discipline have kept him from getting to it so far. He still has big upside and will play all of 2020 at 19 years old, but at some point we'd like to see some production.
- Keep an eye on: Josh Tobias, Nick Northcut

Middle Infield
C.J. Chatham (2020 Age: 25): After battling injuries early in his pro career, the former second round pick out of FAU has methodically climbed the ladder and slashed .298/.333/.408 with five home runs and an 87/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games between AA Portland and AAA Pawtucket this year. Despite standing 6'3", he doesn't have a ton of pop and instead relies on strong bat to ball skills to spray line drives around and make things happen. A strong enough defender to profile well at shortstop, he's blocked there by Xander Bogaerts and may have a better chance of breaking through at second base. However, because his high batting averages tend to be fairly empty, he may not have the bat to profile as a starter there and looks more like a strong utility infielder. Expect him in the majors early in 2020.
- Cameron Cannon (2020 Age: 22): If we're being honest, there really isn't another viable middle infield prospect in this system until you get down to the low minors, where Cameron Cannon slashed a disappointing .200/.284/.324 with three home runs and a 42/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games in his pro debut. The second rounder out of Arizona in 2019, Bobby Dalbec's alma mater, opened eyes with his hard-nosed style of play, line drive approach, and sneaky pop from a 5'10" package. While the rough run through the New York-Penn League is worth noting, it's not enough to take too much away from Cannon's potential to be an important bat down the line, one who could hit 15-20 home runs in the majors with good on-base percentages. He might be a little stretched at shortstop, but he should be an above average defender at second base and his bat can profile there.
- Matthew Lugo (2020 Age: 18-19): Picked shortly after Cannon in the 2019 draft, Lugo hit .257/.342/.331 with a home run and a 36/15 strikeout to walk ratio in 39 games in complex ball in his pro debut before picking up two hits in as many games in a short run through the New York-Penn League. The Puerto Rican has a very athletic build and lots of projection from a 6'1" frame, and while he's very raw as a player now, it's easy to project him as an above average hitter in all aspects. Of course, the 18 year old has a long way to go to get there, but he has the best chance of any player in this section to start at shortstop one day. His defense is average there but he should be able to stick if the Red Sox are patient.
- Antoni Flores (2020 Age: 19): Signed in the same international class as Danny Diaz for $1.4 million out of Venezuela, Flores has also struggled and hit just .193/.293/.227 with a 59/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games at short season Lowell. He has some power projection and could stick at shortstop, but his carrying tool is supposed to be his on-base ability and that has not manifested yet. Just 19 for all of 2020, we'll see if it does this coming year.
- Keep an eye on: Ryan Fitzgerald

Outfield
- Jarren Duran (2020 Age: 23): One of the only offensive prospects to exceed expectations in 2019, Duran slashed .387/.456/.543 across 50 games at High A Salem, then regressed to a more human .250/.309/.325 in 82 games at AA Portland. Overall, that's a .303/.367/.408 line with five home runs, 46 stolen bases, and a 128/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games. Duran won't ever hit for much power but he has quick hands that can help the barrel find the ball with regularity, and his plus speed helps him wreak havoc on the basepaths and run down fly balls in the outfield, and if he can improve his routes enough to stick in center field, he could profile as a starter in the near future. However, the way his bat quieted down in AA should temper expectations just enough to show that this isn't the next Andrew Benintendi, and his bat might be just a bit light for right field unless that proves to be an aberration. Either way, he has the floor of a speedy fourth outfielder.
- Marcus Wilson (2020 Age: 23-24): Acquired from the Mariners for Blake Swihart, Marcus Wilson has been very inconsistent in his minor league career but has shown enough during his ups to profile well as a prospect. Between High A and AA this year, he slashed .269/.357/.492 with 18 home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 142/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games, though most of that production was concentrated in his time with Salem. He has a solid power/speed combination that stands out in this shallow farm system, and he's gotten to it enough to profile at least as a strong fourth outfielder down the line. While Duran has the leg up as a prospect due to his superior speed and contact ability, Wilson does have more power and is close enough in speed that he could leapfrog Duran if he can stick in center field and get to his power regularly at the next level.
- Gilberto Jimenez (2020 Age: 19-20): While Danny Diaz and Antoni Flores signed for a combined $3 million out of Venezuela in 2017, Gilberto Jimenez came from the Dominican Republic for just $10,000 and has outplayed both of them by a long shot. After a .319/.384/.420 turn through the Dominican Summer League in 2018, he skipped the Gulf Coast League and tore up the New York-Penn League with a .359/.393/.470 slash line, three home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 38/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games with short season Lowell. Slight in stature at 5'11" and 160 pounds, he found a ton of success by simply throwing his hands at the ball and letting his speed do the rest. The Red Sox knew he could do that when they signed him, but he found the barrel more often than expected and has blossomed into a potential leadoff man in the future. He has a lot to prove, but with a similar profile to Jarren Duran at four years younger, he could be a dynamic talent down the line.
- Nick Decker (2020 Age: 20): A power hitting right fielder from central New Jersey, Decker slashed .247/.328/.471 with six home runs and a 59/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games at Lowell this year. He gets to his power fairly frequently and those doubles and triples should translate into more home runs down the line, and while he hasn't done a ton to get himself noticed in this shallow farm system, he's a breakout candidate for 2020 as a potential future 20-25 home run bat with solid on-base percentages.
- Keep an eye on: Tyler Esplin, Stephen Scott

Starting Pitching
- Kyle Hart (2020 Age: 27): Hart turns 27 this offseason, but he did enough in the upper minors in 2019 to get himself noticed. The former 19th round pick as a redshirt-senior out of Indiana had a 3.52 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 140/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 156 innings between AA Portland and AAA Pawtucket, using solid command and advanced pitchability to navigate lineups. He only throws about 90 miles per hour with average breaking pitches, but he mixes his pitches well and can drop in a strong changeup to keep hitters off balance. He's likely no more than a #5 starter, but any lefty who could hold a 3.86 ERA in AAA with those juiced balls deserves attention and he'll have a shot at the Boston rotation in 2020.
- Bryan Mata (2020 Age: 20-21): If Hart is all about floor, then Mata is all about ceiling. The Venezuelan product shut down High A with a 1.75 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 52/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 51.1 innings with Greenville, though he was more hittable with AA Portland and had a 5.03 ERA and a 59/24 strikeout to walk ratio across 53.2 innings. He has a lot of moving parts in his delivery, but his whippy arm produces mid to upper 90's fastballs with sink and he has begun introducing a sharp, bat-missing slider to go along with his fading changeup. His control comes and goes, but he has good body control for a 20 year old and should be able to throw enough strikes to make his whole arsenal play up. It's hard to project him as a true ace, but Mata is continually developing and could be a #2 or #3 starter who debuts in 2021 or, if we're lucky, 2020.
- Denyi Reyes (2020 Age: 23): Reyes absolutely dominated A ball in 2018 to the tune of a 1.97 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP, though he was more human in 2019 with a 4.16 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 116/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 151.1 innings at AA Portland. Never one to blow hitters away or show sharp offspeed pitches, Reyes has continually survived on pitchability and command and has proven himself at every level he's pitched at. Like Hart, he's probably nothing more than a #4 or #5 starter, but he has a high floor and could contribute in the rotation in 2020.
- Thad Ward (2020 Age: 23): From a pitching perspective, Thad Ward was the best thing to happen to the Red Sox system in 2019. A relatively unremarkable fifth round pick as a reliever out of UCF in 2018, Ward transitioned to starting with the Red Sox and his stuff has taken an unexpected step forward. He now operates with a low to mid 90's fastball and a diving slider that misses bats, adding a changeup and throwing enough strikes to make it all work. That enabled him to post a 2.14 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 157/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 126.1 innings between Class A Greenville and High A Salem. Whether he can reach his upside of a #3/#4 starter will be determined by whether he can keep his command together and by how durable he proves to be.
- Brayan Bello (2020 Age: 20-21): A bit of an older prospect when he signed for $28,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2017 and when he put up video game numbers in complex ball in 2018 (1.60 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 74/10 K/BB), Bello skipped all the way to Class A Greenville in 2019 as a more age-appropriate 19-20 year old. Completely leapfrogging essentially from the Dominican Summer League to full season ball was tough, but he still posted a 5.43 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 119/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 117.2 innings in the South Atlantic League. A 6'1" kid with a slight stature, he has a live arm that produces low 90's fastballs with good angle as well as a sharp slider and a developing changeup. He throws strikes with all three pitches and while his command is nowhere close to pinpoint, he's ahead of many of his peers in that regard. He'll have to continue to sharpen that secondary stuff and, most importantly, prove his durability, but he has the chance to be a mid rotation starter down the line if he can. Otherwise, he's likely destined for the bullpen.
- Ryan Zeferjahn (2020 Age: 22): Zeferjahn has been inconsistent throughout his career, ever since he was a top prep prospect coming out of Topeka and through his time at Kansas, where he threw to fellow Red Sox draftee Jaxx Groshans. The 2019 third rounder posted a 4.50 ERA, a 1.64 WHIP, and a 31/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 innings for short season Lowell in his debut. His fastball/slider combination from a 6'5" frame makes him one of the tougher pitchers to square up, but his control has come and gone and often is his Achilles heel. Getting the big righty consistent with that command and helping him develop his changeup could make him something of a right handed Patrick Corbin, but there is significant relief risk here.
- Jay Groome (2020 Age: 21): What do we make of Jay Groome? A candidate to go first overall out of a Jersey Shore high school in 2016, he slipped to pick number 12 for a multitude of reasons, and now he's thrown just 66 innings in four pro seasons and just four innings over the past two seasons. When he's healthy, he can sit in the mid 90's with his fastball and add a hammer curveball that's almost impossible to square up. At 6'6", he's an imposing presence on the mound, but he just hasn't been able to stay there long enough to make anything of his future. Fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, he hopes to regain that lost prospect stock in 2020 and we can find out whether he's a future frontline starter.
- Noah Song (2020 Age: 22-23): It's hard to project Noah Song for the entirely different reasons than Groome. The 6'4" righty is your prototypical starting pitching prospect, coming at you with a four pitch mix of potentially above average offerings. That helped him put up unreal numbers at Navy (17-6, 1.67 ERA, 282/72 K/BB over junior/senior seasons) as well as at Lowell in the New York-Penn League (1.06 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 19/5 K/BB in 17 IP). However, Song may be required to serve two years in the Navy before he begins his pro career, which means we won't see him on a minor league mound again until 2022, when he'll be 25. However however, there's still a chance he may be able to get a deferment, which would immediately make him the top pitching prospect in the system and put him on the fast track to being a #3 starter in the majors.
- Keep an eye on: Kutter Crawford, Jake ThompsonChase Shugart, Alex Scherff, Jhonathan Diaz

Relief Pitching
- Tanner Houck (2020 Age: 23-24): There's still a chance Houck starts at the major league level, and he posted a 4.25 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and an 80/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.2 innings as a starter at AA Portland this year, but he pitched mostly out of the bullpen at AAA Pawtucket and had a 3.24 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 27/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 innings there. He's a 6'4" righty with a low three quarters delivery that puts deceptive angle on his low to mid 90's fastball and swooping slider. However, between his so-so command and lack of a strong changeup, he's struggled to set himself apart in the Boston system despite being a first round pick out of Missouri in 2016. His stuff has a better chance of playing up as a reliever, where he can focus on his fastball/slider combination and really go full effort in that regard. In some roll or another, he should be in the majors at some point in 2020.
- Mike Shawaryn (2020 Age: 25): Shawaryn, like Houck, comes from a low three quarters delivery and may still be able to stick in the rotation. He split time between the bullpen and the rotation at AAA Pawtucket this year, posting a 4.52 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a 76/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 89.2 innings there. He also got knocked around in a brief major league call-up out of the bullpen, posting a 9.74 ERA and a 29/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 20.1 innings. He only sits in the low 90's with his fastball but adds a sweepy slider that misses bats, and his average command helps his deception play up a bit. The stuff is probably just a little light to stick in the rotation, especially after seeing what happened in his MLB call-up, but with a bit more refinement he could be a deceptive reliever in 2020.
- Durbin Feltman (2020 Age: 23): A third round pick out of TCU in 2018, Feltman was supposed to move quickly through the minors and he started to do just that with a 1.93 ERA and a 36/5 strikeout to walk ratio in his pro debut. However, his stuff took a step back in 2019 as he posted a 5.26 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and a 54/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 51.1 innings at AA Portland. Feltman's fastball dipped into the mid 90's while his slider softened up a bit, exposing his so-so command that could typically hide behind his upper 90's heat and wipeout slider. Getting his stuff back in 2020 could make him a set-up man and perhaps more, but if it doesn't come back, he profiles more as a middle reliever.
- Eduard Bazardo (2020 Age: 24): Though he had a 2.67 ERA and an 84/8 strikeout to walk ratio as a starter in 2018, the Red Sox shifted the 155 pounder to the bullpen in 2019 and he continued to impress, posting a 2.21 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an 88/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.1 innings between High A Salem and AA Portland. His fastball sits in the low 90's and sometimes bumps the mid 90's, but his power curveball, command, and slight deception help his stuff play up. He's a more complete product than Feltman, and while he can't match his upside, he has a higher floor and should be at least a middle reliever in the near future.
- Keep an eye on: Travis Lakins, Bobby PoynerYoan Aybar, Dominic LoBrutto

Sunday, June 10, 2018

2018 Draft Review: Boston Red Sox

First 5 rounds: Triston Casas (1-26), Nick Decker (2-64), Durbin Feltman (3-100), Kole Cottam (4-130), Thad Ward (5-160)
Also notable: Devlin Granberg (6-190), Brian Brown (9-280), Nick Northcut (11-340), Zach Watson (40-1210)

The Red Sox seemingly placed a premium on two big tools early in this draft: power at the plate and power in the arm. The hitters selected early won't get confused with slap hitters, while the pitchers should move quickly on their velocity and could be in the big leagues soon as relievers. They also leaned heavily on college players after taking high schoolers with their first two picks, following them with eight straight college players, mostly hitters. The Red Sox farm system has thinned out considerably in the last few years, so they'll hope this restock does them good.

1-26: 3B Triston Casas (my rank: 28)
The Red Sox grabbed the kid with arguably the most raw power in all of high school baseball with their first round pick (though Cardinals first rounder Nolan Gorman might disagree), as Casas regularly registered some of the top exit velocities in the country with his long, lofted, powerful swing. He probably will move across the diamond to first base, but as long as he makes enough contact, his power will make the bat play there. The South Florida standout is a guy who, at his best, could chase 40 home runs every season, especially with that short porch in right field at Fenway. The left handed hitter does have a very long swing, one that makes me a little nervous that strikeouts might be an issue in pro ball, and the Red Sox definitely understand that risk. Fortunately, he's very patient at the plate, and even if his batting average sits around .240, he'll walk enough that the power and on-base percentage together should make him a valuable middle of the order bat. Like most high schoolers, he is a high upside, high risk pick in the first round. He has already signed for just over $2.55 million, slot value for the 26th overall pick.

2-64: OF Nick Decker (my rank: 86)
Decker is a similar player to Casas, though not quite as good. The New Jersey native, like Casas, has a long left handed swing that generates a ton of pop, though he looks more like a 30 home run guy than a 40 homer guy like Casas. His swing itself is actually not all that long for a power hitter, but it takes a split-second to get going, and that could be deadly once he starts facing faster pitching. It's probably correctable, but it's something to watch for. Between Casas and Decker, the Sox should get at least one power hitter for their lineup. Decker is committed to Maryland and slot value is just over $1 million here.

3-100: RHP Durbin Feltman (my rank: 67)
The scouting report is pretty simple here. The 6'1" TCU righty is a hard throwing reliever that could be up to the major leagues in a hurry, possibly even by the end of this season. Over 18 relief appearances for the Horned Frogs this year, Feltman allowed just two runs in 24 innings (0.74 ERA) while striking out 43 and walking just six. Numbers don't get much better than that, and he did it with a fastball that sits in the mid to upper 90's and that has hit 99, as well as a wipeout slider. Those two pitches alone should make him a successful major league pitcher, but it won't be as a starter, as he has a jerky delivery that wouldn't be repeatable over a full game. As a two pitch reliever, though, he can come in and shut down the opposition quickly, and his command is good enough that his floor is really just as a middle reliever. Low risk, low reward pick here, with slot value sitting just under $560,000.

4-130: C Kole Cottam (unranked)
Cottam just finished up an excellent season at Kentucky where he slashed .352/.438/.667 with 19 home runs and a 49/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. The Red Sox are buying the bat here, as he probably won't stick behind the plate, though those numbers in the tough SEC sure are pretty. Though his 18.9% strikeout rate wasn't astronomical, it's high enough to raise some questions in the bat, especially when it looks like his swing is more geared towards beating up college pitching than squaring up pro stuff. Some guys manage to make adjustments and keep hitting as they are promoted, so we'll have to see how it goes with Cottam. Slot value here is $417,800 and he should be signable.

Others: 5th rounder Thad Ward is a right handed pitcher out of the University of Central Florida, where he put up a 3.27 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 22 games (5 starts) this year, striking out 84 and walking 26 in 63 innings. The 6'3" righty should be a fast mover as a reliever, and while he won't be up as qiuckly as Feltman, he could help the bullpen in the near future. 6th rounder Devlin Granberg is an outfielder from Dallas Baptist University, where he just put up an incredible season by slashing .426/.511/.651 with eleven home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 41/50 strikeout to walk ratio. A college senior who will be 23 in September, he's understandably advanced and will likely be another fast mover through the system. Though he hits the ball hard, his swing is more geared towards line drives than home runs, so adding loft could help him but might also slow his path to the big leagues. Ultimately, he looks like a fourth outfielder or third division starter, one who could hit something like .270/.340/.440 with some speed at his best. 9th rounder Brian Brown just finished up a fantastic career at NC State, going 25-11 with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP over four seasons in Raleigh. This past season, he was 7-2 with a 2.74 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 98/26 strikeout to walk ratio in 98.2 innings. The 6' left hander is more about pitchability than power stuff, sitting around 90 with his fastball but commanding it well. He should be able to remain a starter as he moves up through the minors, with the ultimate ceiling of a 4th or 5th starter. 11th rounder Nick Northcut won't sign here, as he is committed to Vanderbilt and had the talent to go in the second or third round, and the Cincinnati area high schooler could be a big part of the Commodores offense immediately once he steps on the diamond in Nashville. He's a third baseman with plenty of power from a shorter 6'1" frame, though he'll have to prove he can make enough contact to tap into it enough. 40th rounder Zach Watson is another guy who won't sign, as he had the talent to go in the second or third round as well but was taken with the fifth to last pick of the draft. The LSU outfielder has put up two similar seasons for the Tigers, slashing .312/.371/.492 with 17 home runs and 26 stolen bases over 121 games in his career, striking out 87 times while walking 33 times. The draft eligible sophomore shows the potential to impact the game with his speed, defense, contact, and even a little bit of power, but he'll have to improve his plate discipline to tap into his offensive value at the next level. He'll try to do just that in his junior year in Baton Rouge.

Monday, June 4, 2018

2018 MLB Draft: Top 10 College RHP's

College right handers are always popular on draft day, as they are often close to finished products and can get to the major leagues pretty quickly. Casey Mize is all but certain to go first overall, and four of these guys will almost certainly go in the first round. Five of the first seven guys on this list come from the SEC, which isn't surprising when you realize that Max Scherzer (Missouri), Sonny Gray (Vanderbilt), Aaron Nola (LSU), Michael Wacha (Texas A&M), Lance Lynn (Ole Miss), and plenty more were all SEC right handers.

1. Casey Mize (Auburn)
Nothing is ever a sure thing with the draft, but all signs point to Mize going first overall to the Tigers and have for a while. A year after one of the most dominant seasons in recent SEC history in 2017 (8-2, 2.04 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 109/9 K/BB), Mize came right back with another huge season in 2018. Across 16 starts, the 6'3" righty went 10-5 with a 2.95 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 151/12 strikeout to walk ratio across 109.2 innings, showcasing premium stuff and excellent command. He may not be all that projectable, but that is okay when the finished product throws mid 90's with an un-hittable splitter, a good slider, and the ability to command all three pitches wherever he wants them. He has a  track record of success in the SEC and has very few flaws associated with his profile. To nitpick, he was shut down at the end of his sophomore season, but that didn't happen this year, though he did have a couple of so-so starts towards the end of this year.

2. Brady Singer (Florida)
Brady Singer will make it three straight years that a Florida Gator starting pitcher was drafted in the first eighteen picks, following A.J. Puk (6th overall, 2016) and Alex Faedo (18th overall, 2017). Singer dominated the powerful SEC as a sophomore last year (9-5, 3.21 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 129/32 K/BB), then was even better this year, at least statistically, going 11-1 with a 2.27 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a 98/19 strikeout to walk ratio across 95 innings. He is your prototypical top of the draft starting pitcher, bringing in a track record of performance, pitcher's frame (6'5", 180 lbs), a smooth delivery, a fastball in the mid 90's, a slider that is un-hittable at its best, a good changeup, and plenty of control to make it all work together. In addition, he is said to have a good work ethic and a true pitcher's mentality on the mound. Some scouts knock him for his inconsistency and his three quarters arm slot, but he still projects to go anywhere in the top half of the first round.

3. Logan Gilbert (Stetson)
Gilbert is a bit tough to project, having dominated both the Cape Cod League (1.72 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 31/4 K/BB) and the Atlantic Sun Conference in college, but he has been inconsistent at times and has a wide range of projections for a first round college starting pitcher. He turned in a very good season in 2018 (11-1, 2.52 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 157/23 K/BB), with the strikeout rate (38.1%) in particular standing out. Mid-major college hitters had no chance against Gilbert's stuff, and when he's at his best, it's truly premium. He is 6'5" and projectable, throwing in the mid 90's at his best with a very good slider, a curveball, a good changeup, and enough control to make it work. However, there have been times when he has dipped into the low 90's and his stuff has flattened out a bit, which pushes him out of top ten consideration, but a team confident in their ability to bring his best out of him could take him in the middle of the first round. The combination of strikeout stuff, Cape performance, and projectability is very valuable.

4. Jackson Kowar (Florida)
We're on number four and still haven't made it north of southern Alabama, but that's okay. The 6'5" Kowar pitches in the same Gator rotation as Brady Singer, and at times, he has been better than his more well-known counterpart. Kowar also took a step forward statistically this season, going 9-4 with a 3.21 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP,  and a 91/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 92.2 innings in the tough SEC. He's a different pitcher than Singer, as his breaking ball, a curve, isn't nearly as advanced, and he relies on a changeup as his primary offspeed pitch. That changeup is excellent, generating tons of swings and misses, and will buy his curveball time to develop. Meanwhile, his fastball already sits in the mid 90's, and with his projectable frame, it could get even faster. His control is just average, and improving that could be his key to success even if he doesn't improve the curve. His draft range is the same as Gilbert's, somewhere in the middle of the first round.

5. Tristan Beck (Stanford)
There is a big gap between Gilbert/Kowar and the next best college righty available, Tristan Beck, but Beck still has the upside of a #3 or #4 starter. The 6'4" Stanford ace was eligible last year and could have been a first round pick if he hadn't hurt his back and missed the season, so he's back again this year and figures to go somewhere just outside the first round. Beck hasn't quite taken the step forward scouts were hoping for this year, finishing 8-4 with a 2.98 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 73/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.2 innings. His stuff hasn't been quite as sharp as it was his healthy freshman season, though where it is now is still pretty good. He throws in the low 90's without much movement, and his curve is still good despite losing some bite from two years ago. The changeup is his out pitch, and he commands it well, giving him three solid pitches from a clean delivery. His command is pretty good overall, enough to make his stuff play up and get him to the majors, but it's not quite plus and it won't make him an impact starter on its own. His age also is a negative, as he turns 22 just a few weeks after the draft.

6. Sean Hjelle (Kentucky)
The first thing that stands out about Hjelle, and the first thing you'll hear in any scouting report about him, is that he's 6'11". If he makes the majors, he'll tie Jon Rauch as the tallest player in major league history. He's a true string bean, so if he can add some good weight, there is a world of projection. Hjelle currently sits in the low 90's with his fastball and throws a pretty good curveball, and his slider and changeup fill out his arsenal. Despite his exceptional height, he commands his pitches very well, and the downward plane he generates helps all of his pitches play up. There is always injury risk with a player of his size, but so far he has proven durable and his athleticism should help mitigate at least some of those concerns. He finished his junior season 7-5 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, striking out 91 and walking 22 in 99 innings mostly against tough SEC hitting, and he figures to go somewhere in the second round.

7. Blaine Knight (Arkansas)
Like Beck, Knight was eligible as a sophomore last season, but he didn't sign when teams failed to meet his lofty price tag. He improved his stats somewhat this year, going 11-0 with a 2.74 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an 88/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings. There is a little bit of tweener risk here, but Knight does have very good present stuff that includes a low to mid 90's fastball, a pretty good slider, a curve, and a changeup, all of which he can land for strikes. One knock against him is his size, because despite his 6'3" height, he is very skinny and probably won't be able to add much weight, meaning possible durability issues down the line. His drafting team will run him out as a starter at first and see how long he can last, though he may ultimately be destined for the bullpen. Like Beck, he is a little older and will turn 22 shortly after the draft, where he is projected to go in the second round.

8. Griffin Roberts (Wake Forest)
Roberts is definitely an interesting arm. The 6'3" righty was also eligible last season, but obviously didn't sign. That year, he was a lights out reliever, posting a 2.19 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and an 80/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 innings, showing premium stuff and mediocre command. Wake Forest moved him to the rotation this spring with mixed results, as he finished 5-4 with a 3.82 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 130/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.2 innings. His walk rate actually improved and he continued to strike out an absurd number of hitters, but he was hit a bit harder. There is effort in his delivery and his changeup isn't all that advanced, so there is a very good chance he could end up a reliever, but he'd be excellent there. In short spurts, his fastball sits in the mid 90's and his slider is one of the best breaking balls in the class, though he loses a few MPH off that fastball as a starter and the slider more plus than plus-plus in long outings. He'll probably go in the second or third round, and his drafting team will likely try him out as a starter, but his home is probably in the bullpen, where his fastball/slider combination can be deadly. Like Beck and Knight, he also is old with a June birthday and will be 22 shortly after the draft.

9. Aaron Hernandez (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi)
Of no relation to the deceased ex-football player, Hernandez is a very interesting prospect in his own right. The 6'2" righty throws a sinking low to mid 90's fastball with a curveball, slider, and changeup that all grade out as above average, and he has proven that he can maintain that stuff deep into starts. Those are the pros. On the negative side, he missed his entire sophomore season after being ruled academically ineligible to play, and when he came back for his junior year, he was hit harder than he should have been, going 3-5 with a 4.55 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 102/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 innings in a less competitive Southland Conference. His strikeout rate is promising, but his crouch and drive delivery leads to a favorable angle for hitters to see and attack his pitches. I personally think pro coaching can help him alter that delivery enough to get the most out of his stuff. He did survive the Cape Cod League in a small sample, striking out eleven and walking four in ten innings. He projects anywhere in the second through fourth rounds.

10. Durbin Feltman (Texas Christian)
While Griffin Roberts will probably end up in the bullpen, Durbin Feltman is the only pure relief prospect on this list. His numbers were excellent at TCU, as he put up a 0.74 ERA, a matching 0.74 WHIP, and a 43/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings out of the bullpen. He had this success with a mid to upper 90's fastball that has hit 99 in the past as well as very good slider, despite coming in at just 6'1". The command is there as well, and he could be the first player in this class to reach the major leagues. He projects to come off the board sometime in the second or third rounds, though college relievers can go earlier than expected if a team wants an impact soon.

Others: Colton Eastman (Cal State Fullerton), Dylan Coleman (Missouri State), Mitchell Kilkenny (Texas A&M), Sean Wymer (TCU), Jonathan Stiever (Indiana)