Sunday, June 10, 2018

2018 Draft Review: Boston Red Sox

First 5 rounds: Triston Casas (1-26), Nick Decker (2-64), Durbin Feltman (3-100), Kole Cottam (4-130), Thad Ward (5-160)
Also notable: Devlin Granberg (6-190), Brian Brown (9-280), Nick Northcut (11-340), Zach Watson (40-1210)

The Red Sox seemingly placed a premium on two big tools early in this draft: power at the plate and power in the arm. The hitters selected early won't get confused with slap hitters, while the pitchers should move quickly on their velocity and could be in the big leagues soon as relievers. They also leaned heavily on college players after taking high schoolers with their first two picks, following them with eight straight college players, mostly hitters. The Red Sox farm system has thinned out considerably in the last few years, so they'll hope this restock does them good.

1-26: 3B Triston Casas (my rank: 28)
The Red Sox grabbed the kid with arguably the most raw power in all of high school baseball with their first round pick (though Cardinals first rounder Nolan Gorman might disagree), as Casas regularly registered some of the top exit velocities in the country with his long, lofted, powerful swing. He probably will move across the diamond to first base, but as long as he makes enough contact, his power will make the bat play there. The South Florida standout is a guy who, at his best, could chase 40 home runs every season, especially with that short porch in right field at Fenway. The left handed hitter does have a very long swing, one that makes me a little nervous that strikeouts might be an issue in pro ball, and the Red Sox definitely understand that risk. Fortunately, he's very patient at the plate, and even if his batting average sits around .240, he'll walk enough that the power and on-base percentage together should make him a valuable middle of the order bat. Like most high schoolers, he is a high upside, high risk pick in the first round. He has already signed for just over $2.55 million, slot value for the 26th overall pick.

2-64: OF Nick Decker (my rank: 86)
Decker is a similar player to Casas, though not quite as good. The New Jersey native, like Casas, has a long left handed swing that generates a ton of pop, though he looks more like a 30 home run guy than a 40 homer guy like Casas. His swing itself is actually not all that long for a power hitter, but it takes a split-second to get going, and that could be deadly once he starts facing faster pitching. It's probably correctable, but it's something to watch for. Between Casas and Decker, the Sox should get at least one power hitter for their lineup. Decker is committed to Maryland and slot value is just over $1 million here.

3-100: RHP Durbin Feltman (my rank: 67)
The scouting report is pretty simple here. The 6'1" TCU righty is a hard throwing reliever that could be up to the major leagues in a hurry, possibly even by the end of this season. Over 18 relief appearances for the Horned Frogs this year, Feltman allowed just two runs in 24 innings (0.74 ERA) while striking out 43 and walking just six. Numbers don't get much better than that, and he did it with a fastball that sits in the mid to upper 90's and that has hit 99, as well as a wipeout slider. Those two pitches alone should make him a successful major league pitcher, but it won't be as a starter, as he has a jerky delivery that wouldn't be repeatable over a full game. As a two pitch reliever, though, he can come in and shut down the opposition quickly, and his command is good enough that his floor is really just as a middle reliever. Low risk, low reward pick here, with slot value sitting just under $560,000.

4-130: C Kole Cottam (unranked)
Cottam just finished up an excellent season at Kentucky where he slashed .352/.438/.667 with 19 home runs and a 49/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. The Red Sox are buying the bat here, as he probably won't stick behind the plate, though those numbers in the tough SEC sure are pretty. Though his 18.9% strikeout rate wasn't astronomical, it's high enough to raise some questions in the bat, especially when it looks like his swing is more geared towards beating up college pitching than squaring up pro stuff. Some guys manage to make adjustments and keep hitting as they are promoted, so we'll have to see how it goes with Cottam. Slot value here is $417,800 and he should be signable.

Others: 5th rounder Thad Ward is a right handed pitcher out of the University of Central Florida, where he put up a 3.27 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 22 games (5 starts) this year, striking out 84 and walking 26 in 63 innings. The 6'3" righty should be a fast mover as a reliever, and while he won't be up as qiuckly as Feltman, he could help the bullpen in the near future. 6th rounder Devlin Granberg is an outfielder from Dallas Baptist University, where he just put up an incredible season by slashing .426/.511/.651 with eleven home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 41/50 strikeout to walk ratio. A college senior who will be 23 in September, he's understandably advanced and will likely be another fast mover through the system. Though he hits the ball hard, his swing is more geared towards line drives than home runs, so adding loft could help him but might also slow his path to the big leagues. Ultimately, he looks like a fourth outfielder or third division starter, one who could hit something like .270/.340/.440 with some speed at his best. 9th rounder Brian Brown just finished up a fantastic career at NC State, going 25-11 with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP over four seasons in Raleigh. This past season, he was 7-2 with a 2.74 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 98/26 strikeout to walk ratio in 98.2 innings. The 6' left hander is more about pitchability than power stuff, sitting around 90 with his fastball but commanding it well. He should be able to remain a starter as he moves up through the minors, with the ultimate ceiling of a 4th or 5th starter. 11th rounder Nick Northcut won't sign here, as he is committed to Vanderbilt and had the talent to go in the second or third round, and the Cincinnati area high schooler could be a big part of the Commodores offense immediately once he steps on the diamond in Nashville. He's a third baseman with plenty of power from a shorter 6'1" frame, though he'll have to prove he can make enough contact to tap into it enough. 40th rounder Zach Watson is another guy who won't sign, as he had the talent to go in the second or third round as well but was taken with the fifth to last pick of the draft. The LSU outfielder has put up two similar seasons for the Tigers, slashing .312/.371/.492 with 17 home runs and 26 stolen bases over 121 games in his career, striking out 87 times while walking 33 times. The draft eligible sophomore shows the potential to impact the game with his speed, defense, contact, and even a little bit of power, but he'll have to improve his plate discipline to tap into his offensive value at the next level. He'll try to do just that in his junior year in Baton Rouge.

No comments:

Post a Comment