Major league first baseman were often drafted at different positions, such as the outfield, third base, or even catcher, so the top first baseman from this draft could end up being a guy like Alec Bohm (3B), Nolan Gorman (3B), or Trevor Larnach (OF). For these guys at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, there is a lot of pressure on the bat, and they will have to hit to stay relevant. Fortunately, there is a ton of power to go around in this class, and they all also have patient approaches in common to pad their on-base percentages.
1. Triston Casas (American Heritage HS, FL)
American Heritage High School in South Florida has produced tons of talent, most notably Eric Hosmer, and seems to have a top five round pick every year. This year, Triston Casas leads the way as the arguably the top high school prospect in all of South Florida, showing some of the best power in the entire draft class. He generates huge exit velocities and can hit the ball as far as anybody in this class, and he combines that power with extreme patience at the plate which could lead to on-base percentages creeping towards .400 in the majors. However, contact could hold him back, as he has a very long swing which could struggle to catch up to quality fastballs, though it hasn't yet. He's a high risk, high reward hitter with a lot to prove and a lot to potentially accomplish. He's committed to the University of Miami and will likely go in the first round.
2. Seth Beer (Clemson)
One of the most interesting bats in all of college baseball, Beer put up a sensational freshman season at Clemson in 2016 by slashing .369/.535/.700 with 18 home runs in 62 games, walking more than twice as often as he struck out and winning the Dick Howser Trophy as the best player in college baseball. However, teams found holes in his swing during his sophomore year and his slash line dropped to .298/.478/.606 with 16 home runs in 63 games, still excellent but not quite what he did as a freshman. It's back up to .308/.464/.656 with 22 home runs in 62 games this year, but the shine from his freshman season has worn off a bit. As a bottom of the scale defender and runner who really would fit better at DH than at first base, his bat needs to carry him, and it carries too many questions for him to find himself in the first round. He has not hit particularly well with wood bats, and there is some fear that quality pitching can find the holes in his swing, which isn't the cleanest, with regularity. Still, there is enough upside in the bat that he likely will not fall out of the top fifty picks.
3. Luken Baker (Texas Christian)
Baker, like Beer, set the world on fire with an excellent freshman season in 2016, slashing .379/.483/.577 with 11 home runs and more walks than strikeouts, also putting up a 1.70 ERA on the mound. Also like Beer, he has regressed a little bit, slashing .317/.454/.528 with eight home runs as a sophomore and .319/.443/.575 with nine home runs this year as a junior. He's a huge human being, standing 6'4" and 265 pounds, which limits him to first base defensively, but his proven power/patience combination in the NCAA is very attractive to major league teams. His right handed swing is cleaner than Beer's left handed swing, though he does have a bit of a head jerk, and he actually strikes me as more advanced than Beer as well. However, given his profile, I would like to see more home runs than the 28 he has hit in 145 career games. He has endured bad injuries to end both his sophomore and junior seasons, breaking his arm last year and his leg this year, both on the base paths. He has a chance to anchor a big league lineup, but there's also the possibility he plateau's in AA.
4. Grant Lavigne (Bedford HS, NH)
New Hampshire doesn't produce much talent at all, with the only notable major leaguer I can think of being Sam Fuld, but Lavigne is the real deal. Like Baker, he is also a huge person, standing 6'4" and 230 pounds, but he is more athletic than all of the guys above him on this list. His swing is also probably the best geared for future success, showing natural loft and few holes, but he gets knocked down this far on the list due to not having proven himself to the point that Casas, Beer, and Baker have. He's risker just by nature of not having as many reps against quality pitching, but he could turn out to be just as good or better than the other guys.
5. Bren Spillane (Illinois)
Spillane put up video game numbers at Illinois this year by slashing .389/.498/.903 with 23 home runs in 50 games, using his massive strength and feel for the barrel to muscle balls out of the park with regularity. However, he has an uphill climb to the majors, as his bat speed is average and his swing is long, and pro pitching will likely find holes in it. Being a right handed hitter narrows his margin for error as well. He'll need to tighten it up to find success at the next level, which he can do with his strength.
Others: Evan Edwards (NC State)
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