Monday, June 4, 2018

2018 MLB Draft: Top 10 High School RHP's

There has never been a right handed high school pitcher taken first overall, and that won't change this year, but there are plenty of guys who have stepped forward this spring and are pushing there way up into the first round. Georgia, Florida, and Texas are very well represented here, combining for eight of the top ten. You'll also notice that the shortest of the bunch stands 6'2" and that all of them can get into the mid 90's with ease.

1. Carter Stewart (Eau Gallie HS, FL)
A breakout candidate to start the season, Stewart indeed broke out in a big way and pushed himself from the back of the first round all the way into possibly the top ten or even top five picks. He stands 6'6", and with a very deliberate delivery with long arm action, the ball just seems to jump out of his hand. He can run that fastball into the mid and even upper 90's, contrasting it with a big power curveball that gives hitters a different look than the sliders that are becoming more and more common. His changeup is coming along, but with that plus-plus fastball/curve combination, he's got plenty for an 18 year old high school senior. He's committed to Mississippi State but won't get there, looking to come off the board in the top ten picks.

2. Cole Winn (Orange Lutheran HS, CA)
Winn is another riser, jumping from borderline first rounder to potential top ten pick. The 6'2" righty has bumped his fastball up to the low to mid 90's while sharpening his slider, and while his stuff isn't as explosive as Stewart's, his delivery is cleaner and he offers better control. He's very advanced for a high school pitcher, one who already looks like a mid-rotation starter, and he's less of a bust candidate than most high school right handers. He also is known to have a very good work ethic, which is always a big bonus. He's committed to TCU but probably won't be around once the middle of the first round passes.

3. Cole Wilcox (Heritage HS, GA)
The second straight Cole W. on this list, Wilcox has had a very good spring and has moved himself up draft boards in the process. Standing 6'5", he now works in the low to mid 90's and has hit 98 a few times, and his changeup is extremely advanced for a high school pitcher. His slider is just decent, but it looks good at times and with pro coaching should become more consistently above average. Despite a weird delivery that includes a lot of moving parts and that will have to be altered, he throws plenty of strikes and is very polished for his age. He is old for his class, turning 19 in July, but that is okay given his polish. He's committed to Georgia and supposedly has a high price tag, but if teams are willing to pay up, he should be signable in that mid first round range.

4. Kumar Rocker (North Oconee HS, GA)
Rocker jumped onto the radar early, and though his stock has faded a little bit this spring, especially with a rough start against Wilcox at the end of the season, he still projects as a first round arm. The huge 6'5", 250 pound righty can run his fastball into the upper 90's and typically sits in the mid 90's with a wipeout slider. He usually has good command, but it can be inconsistent, as with his mechanics, and he carries considerable risk. However, if everything breaks right, he has ace potential. He's committed to Vanderbilt.

5. Ethan Hankins (Forsythe Central HS, GA)
Hankins marks the third straight North Georgia arm and the second straight Vanderbilt commit who has seen his stock drop this spring. Hankins has the best fastball in the entire draft class, throwing it in the mid 90's and running it up to 98, and it runs so much that he should be able to just blow it by hitters all the way up to the mid-minors. He also has a very good changeup that makes his fastball even more unhittable, though his slider has been down this spring and he'll need to refine it further if he wants to have any success as a starting pitcher. The big question mark for him, though, is health, as he missed time with a shoulder injury and took a while to look right, even after returning from it. If he blows out his shoulder, that could be a career changer, and not in a good way. He is a wild card in terms of where he will be drafted, possibly coming off the board as early as the middle of the first round but also possibly falling to the beginning of the second round and signing an over-slot deal.

6. Mason Denaburg (Merritt Island HS, FL)
Like Hankins, Denaburg has also missed time this spring with injuries, but they're not as serious. He's a 6'3" righty with a fastball in the low to mid 90's and a curveball with good shape, though he'll need to improve its consistency. He's ultra-athletic, finding success as a hitter as well as a punter and kicker in football, so once he focuses full time on baseball, he should be able to incorporate that athleticism into even better results. He's a bit raw mechanically, which is understandable. Because he's committed to Florida for both baseball and football, he'll be a tough sign, but teams like him and he could go as high as the middle of the first round.

7. Grayson Rodriguez (Central Heights HS, TX)
Rodriguez has been yet another riser this spring, showing up in better shape and with as much arm strength as anybody in the class. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's but he has run it up to 98 and its heavy life generates plenty of ground balls. His hard biting slider gives another look, and he can throw a curveball and a changeup as well. He has an arm-heavy delivery that includes holding the ball behind his back for a long time, which will probably have to be changed if he doesn't want to tip his pitches. The 6'5" Texan is committed to Texas A&M.

8. Adam Kloffenstein (Magnolia HS, TX)
Kloffenstein is another 6'5" Texas right hander, something of a cliche at this point, and while he doesn't throw as hard as Rodriguez, his slider is just as good and he also shows an advanced changeup. He can run his fastball into the mid 90's with sink, and like Rodriguez, he also has a curveball. Kloffenstein is young for his class, not turning 18 until August, and is committed to TCU. He is a teammate of fellow potential first rounder Jordan Groshans and could go anywhere from the end of the first round to the first half of the second round.

9. Gunnar Hoglund (Fivay HS, FL)
Hoglund is a personal favorite of mine, one who hasn't gotten as much scouting love as I would think. He's a 6'4" righty who throws in the low to mid 90's, and while his fastball doesn't sink like Rodriguez's and Kloffenstein's, it has plenty of run. His curve is not as advanced as those above him, but I like its shape, and he throws a changeup as well. His command is good, as is his delivery, so all he really needs to focus on are those secondary pitches. He's committed to Ole Miss and is likely a second round pick.

10. Lenny Torres Jr. (Beacon HS, NY)
Torres is an interesting pitcher, one who is skinny and stands just 6'2", small for a pitcher, but he throws in the mid 90's and can unfurl a pretty good slider as well. He's from a cold weather state and is extremely young for the class, not turning 18 until October, so he is a fresh arm that can be molded however his drafting team likes. There is some risk that he could wind up a reliever, but his ceiling is too good to pass up. He could come off the board as an under-slot pick at the back of the first round, but most likely fits in the supplemental round or in the second.

Others: Owen White (Carson HS, NC), J.T. Ginn (Brandon HS, MS), Jaden Hill (Ashdown HS, AR), Braydon Fisher (Clear Falls HS, TX), Jayson Schroeder (Juanita HS, WA)

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