Sunday, June 3, 2018

2018 MLB Draft: Top 5 Catchers

This will be my first in a series of position-by-position lists for the top players in the 2018 MLB Draft. The list is drawn from all eligible players, including high school, junior college, and four year college. It is based on my own analysis from video and online scouting reports.

This year's catching class is led by Joey Bart, who will look to join Buster Posey, Mike Zunino, and fellow Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket Matt Wieters as one of the best catchers to come out of college baseball in recent memory. Noah Naylor, Anthony Seigler, and Will Banfield make up the top tier of high school catching, which is typically a very risky demographic that I would try to steer away from if I were a decision maker. After him, Josh Breaux leads the JuCo pack, and J.J. Schwarz, Cal Raleigh, and Ryan Jeffers provide more power from the college side. A few of these guys may have to move off catcher as they move up through the levels, but good catching is hard to find these days and the risk is often worthwhile.

1. Joey Bart (Georgia Tech)
Bart isn't just the best catcher in this draft, but he's the best catching prospect in any draft since Florida's Mike Zunino in 2012, and while he may not beat Zunino's landing spot at third overall, he has a very good chance to have a better career. After a very solid sophomore season where he slashed .296/.370/.575 with 13 home runs in 44 games, he took a huge step forward in 2018, slashing .359/.471/.632 with 16 home runs in 57 games. He also dropped his strikeout rate moderately from 24% to 20.6% while nearly doubling his walk rate from 7.7% to 15.1%. The power is real, as Bart can mash baseballs out of sight and has done so regularly. He has also greatly improved his defensive game, as scouts love the way he handles pitchers and he has gone from a fringe-average defender to an above average one with a cannon arm. His ceiling is that of Gary Sanchez, and he has a very good shot to at least match Zunino as a power hitting, solid fielding every day catcher. He's likely to go in the top five picks and certainly won't last past the top ten.

2. Noah Naylor (St. Joan of Arc HS, ON)
Padres prospect Josh Naylor's younger brother has a chance to be a first round pick as well. High school catchers are notoriously risky, but Naylor's big bat will help ease teams' worries about drafting one. The Ontario native has big time power from the left side and does have plenty of feel to hit, so even if he has to move off of catcher, the bat should be able to carry him even as a first baseman. Personally, I think he could add even more power if he learns to gain more ground with his load. He does have a backup plan before first base, as he is a competent defender at third, and it won't take much improvement in his defense there for him to stay there. With his solid arm and adequate receiving skills, he's a catcher for now, and if he can stay there, he could start in the majors. Naylor looks to go towards the back of the first round and is committed to Texas A&M.

3. Anthony Seigler (Cartersville HS, GA)
Seigler has had some helium during this draft, and could actually hear his name called before Naylor's. The switch hitter generates pop from both sides of the plate, but that power is more a product of his solid feel for the barrel than of his brute strength. He's the most athletic catcher available among top five round talents, showing solid defense behind the plate and enough agility to actually profile at some infield spots as well. However, he does turn 19 just after the draft, making him one of the older players in this year's high school class. As a couple of fun facts, he is half Navajo and can also switch pitch in addition to switch hitting. He's committed to Florida.

4. Will Banfield (Brookwood HS, GA)
Across the Atlanta metro area is Will Banfield, perhaps the best defensive catcher among top five round prospects. His arm is arguably the best in the class, and he combines that with agility behind the plate that can match up with Seigler's. However, his bat lags behind his glove, as he has shown little feel for the barrel and that can kill a career. If a pro team can help him find the barrel more often, he does have loft in his swing and could hit for some power, but it's a big if, especially with the rigors of catching. He has a higher ceiling but a lower floor than the other guys on this list and is committed to Vanderbilt, which could make him a tough sign if he falls past the early second round.

5. Josh Breaux (McLennan JC, TX)
Breaux is more of a third tier catcher, as opposed to Naylor, Seigler, and Banfield, who are second tier guys, but his power is as loud as anybody's aside from Bart. The JuCo standout absolutely raked this year at .404/.532/.831 with 18 home runs in 56 games, granted that is against lower level pitching from other junior colleges around Texas. There is worry about his contact, as he takes a "swing hard in case you hit it" approach at the plate, which knocks him out of the first two rounds, and his defense behind the plate is just adequate. However, he has a cannon arm that can produce 100 MPH fastballs on the mound, so he could conceivably be a passable defender overall with a little bit of improvement with the glove. He has battled some arm injuries this year, which could sap his arm strength and delay his development if they continue to resurface. He is committed to Arkansas for his upper-classman years.

Others: Kameron Guangorena (St. John Bosco HS, CA), Cal Raleigh (Florida State), Ryan Jeffers (UNC Wilmington), J.J. Schwarz (Florida)

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