Monday, June 4, 2018

2018 MLB Draft: Top 5 College LHP's

The college lefty class is a bit more spread out than the high school lefty class, though it does lack the impact arms of the college righty class. Ryan Rolison and Shane McClanahan have both been up and down this season, but no one stepped forward quite enough to keep them from being the top two in the demographic.

1. Ryan Rolison (Ole Miss)
There is no clear top of the draft college lefty, but Ryan Rolison has been doing his best to ensure he's the first one off the board. After a very good freshman season, he has been a bit more inconsistent as a draft-eligible sophomore, going 10-4 with a 3.70 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 120/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.1 innings, getting roughed up against some admittedly tough SEC opponents. The 6'2" lefty lacks much physical projection but already throws in the low to mid 90's with arguably the draft's best curveball, one he can spot to either side of the plate and generate plenty of swings and misses with. He also dominated the Cape Cod League with it (4-0, 1.93 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 35/10 K/BB) and is younger than most draft eligible college players, turning 21 in July. If he can improve his fastball command, he'll be able to deploy his curveball more strategically and could be in impact arm. He'll have to do that though, or else pro hitters will just sit on that curve. He could go anywhere in the first round outside the top ten picks.

2. Shane McClanahan (South Florida)
McClanahan looked like a candidate to go in the top five picks last fall, but an up and down spring has clouded his draft status. Over 14 starts, he went 5-6 with a 3.42 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 120/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 innings, proving to be both wild and overwhelming. The 6'1" lefty's best trait is fastball velocity, as he has hit 100 before and can sit in the mid to upper 90's, even as a starter. That alone keeps him in the first round conversation, but the rest of his game needs work. His changeup is excellent at its best but has been inconsistent, and he has never quite developed a reliable breaking ball, something he'll need to do at the pro level to remain a starter. His command is also spotty, which could push him to the bullpen, where he could close. He's a high upside arm that could blossom under pro coaching, but he has a lot to work on for a college pitcher. He could go anywhere from the middle of the first round to the end of it.

3. Daniel Lynch (Virginia)
Lynch is a late riser in this draft class, one who wasn't much of a prospect at the beginning of the season but who has changed that in a big way with his performance as a junior, going 4-4 with a 3.96 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 105/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.2 innings. The numbers don't look all that great on the surface, but he throws strikes, has seen his velocity bump into the low 90's, throws a pair of decent breaking balls, and can put away hitters with an excellent changeup. He's trending in the right direction, is projectable at 6'4", and could even crack the first round.

4. Kris Bubic (Stanford)
Bubic is another pitchability lefty, showing a stockier build at 6'3" but putting away college hitters with a low 90's fastball and an excellent changeup. As a junior at Stanford, he went 8-1 with a 2.62 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 101/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 86 innings. He lacks much projection, but he's young for the class and has the command to buy the rest of his game time to catch up. He'll likely go somewhere near the beginning of the second round.

5. Konnor Pilkington (Mississippi State)
Pilkington is an interesting player, one who dominated the SEC as a sophomore (8-5, 3.08 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 111/47 K/BB) and then dominated the Cape Cod League over the summer (1.37 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 33/12 K/BB) without premium stuff or command. The holes in his profile were exposed in 2018, as he finished 2-6 with a 4.63 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 97/30 strikeout to walk ratio in 90.1 innings. He throws in the low 90's with decent offspeeds, but he doesn't through enough strikes to make them play up in pro ball yet and will need to step it up somehow. Still the past success in the SEC as well as the Cape is enough to get his name into the top couple of rounds, and being young for a college junior, he has a little bit more development time.

Others: Steven Gingery (Texas Tech), Tim Cate (UConn)

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