2022 MLB Draft Review: Kansas City Royals

Full list of draftees

From Brady Singer and Jackson Kowar to Asa Lacy, the Royals have leaned heavily on college pitching lately to mixed results. This year, they started off their class with two college hitters, and in my opinion, they nailed those two picks. Both Gavin Cross and Cayden Wallace have a chance to hit in the middle of the lineup for a very long time, and they'll fit in great with that young core led by Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, Nick Pratto, and co. After Cross and Wallace, KC moved back to college pitching and selected six such players with their next seven picks, targeting power arms that are toeing the line between starter and reliever profiles. In all, eleven of their twenty picks were college pitchers, following the precedent they've set in prior drafts. Right before wrapping things up, they did nab a fascinating two-way player out of the Bakersfield high school ranks in the twentieth round, so Austin Charles will be a very fun one to follow.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-9: OF Gavin Cross, Virginia Tech. My rank: #8.
Slot value: $5.2 million. Signing bonus: $5.2 million.
The highest draft pick in Virginia Tech history, beating out 2002 12th overall pick Joe Saunders, Gavin Cross was right in the middle of the Hokies' best ever season this year, slashing .328/.411/.660 with 17 home runs and a 41/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. That comes on the heels of an equally strong sophomore season in 2021 and a torrid .455/.474/.879 run with the US Collegiate National Team last summer, so he has as much offensive track record as anybody in this draft. Cross is a big, physical presence in the box at 6'3" and strapped with muscle, creating very difficult at bats for opposing pitchers. He hits the ball extremely hard, regularly posting elite exit velocities on hard line, deep fly balls, and scorching grounders all around the park. It translates to plus game power that could produce 30 or more home runs per season, and he will tap it in pro ball. Cross has always shown strong pitch recognition and bat to ball skills, but he had previously been an aggressive hitter that was prone to chasing just because he knew he could hit pitches out of the zone anyways. He cut back on those chases this spring and bumped his walk rate up from 7.3% a year ago to 10.7% this year, while also cutting his strikeout rate from 20.5% to 14.6%. Now, his advanced eye works to his favor, enabling him to confidently track good pitches to hit while letting the bad ones go. I see an above average hit tool with plus power, which would fit right in the middle of the lineup. Very athletic for his size, the northeast Tennessee native handled center field for the Hokies this spring and looked right at home, and the Royals have kept him there so far and will see what happens. If he gets pushed to right field by a quicker defender, which I would say is more likely than not, he has the strong arm to profile there and plenty of bat. Expect Cross to move rather quickly through the system, as he's already slashing .357/.449/.786 with four home runs and an 11/6 strikeout to walk ratio over eleven games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Columbia.

2-49: 3B Cayden Wallace, Arkansas. My rank: #25.
Slot value: $1.58 million. Signing bonus: $1.7 million ($115,100 above slot value).
I was a big fan of Cayden Wallace out of high school, and then he immediately jumped into a deep Arkansas lineup as a freshman in 2021 and held his own, appearing in all but three games. He took another step forward in 2022, slashing .298/.387/.553 with 16 home runs and a 56/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games. I've gone a bit back and forth on him throughout his time at Arkansas, at times feeling a little concerned about his plate discipline and wondering if he had the power to back it up, but ultimately as the 2022 season went on, I leaned all in on the slugging third baseman and I absolutely love this pick. Wallace represents somewhat of a hometown pick for Kansas City, having grown up in the small north-central Arkansas town of Greenbrier before heading up to Fayetteville for college, just three and  half hours south of Kauffman Stadium on I-49. Like Gavin Cross, he shows the propensity for big time exit velocities, this time from the right side, showing very impressive power to the pull side but plenty enough to drive the ball out the other way as well. He lofts the ball well with some uppercut to his swing path, but he still keeps the barrel in the hitting zone for a long time and doesn't swing through many hittable pitches. A draft eligible sophomore, he only turned 21 after the draft, and there is still some work to be done on pitch selection, as he can be a little prone to chasing offspeed stuff. Given his age, it's nothing glaring and I don't expect it to be too much of an issue, and he has the chance to be an above average contact hitter to go along with plus power if he can tighten that up. Wallace has split reviews on his defense, with some thinking he would fit better in right field, but he's a third baseman for now and nobody questions his absolute cannon for an arm. He's a very good athlete and I think he'll stick at third with a little more refinement, which again brings his youth into the equation. He may not move quite as quickly as Cross, but I think the ceiling is very comparable. Like Cross, he's off to a red hot start and slashing .353/.488/.559 with one home run and a 6/8 strikeout to walk ratio over ten games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Columbia.

3-87: RHP Mason Barnett, Auburn. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $724,600. Signing bonus: $697,500 ($27,100 below slot value).
Mason Barnett is a very interesting arm with a lot of talent that hasn't quite put it all together yet. It's the kind of pitcher that could make serious strides in the right organization, but I don't think that's the Royals, who have struggled to develop college pitching lately. Barnett has gradually earned more and more time in the rotation for Auburn, this year posting a 4.38 ERA and an 83/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 63.2 innings, mostly as a starter. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can hit 98 in short stints, with a pretty flat approach angle that plays down because hitters track it well out of his long arm action. He rips off a plus slider with sharp sweeping action, while also looping in a bigger curveball with depth that needs to add power and an average changeup. It's an arsenal full of potential, but he mainly pitches off his fastball and that lack of deception, in addition to fringy command, has kept him from putting up loud numbers. The 6' righty has a big frame and looks durable, but in order to stick as a starter, he'll have to get more consistent with his command and more effectively mix his pitches. If he does end up in the bullpen, the North Georgia product could be nasty with that fastball/slider combination and flip in a few curves and changeups to keep hitters off balance.

4-115: RHP Steven Zobac, California. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $528,000. Signing bonus: $500,000 ($28,000 below slot value).
Steven Zobac was a two-way player early in his California career, and as an underclassman actually looked more natural in the box than he did on the mound. But the arm strength was always there and he transitioned to pitching full time this spring, finishing with a 4.09 ERA and a 72/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 61.2 innings. His fastball has ticked up, now comfortably sitting in the low 90's as a starter and touching 96 in relief, coming in with flat plane and plenty of hop that makes it tough to square up. He works in an upper 80's cutter/slider with some late bite, also showing a bigger curveball and an average changeup. As he gets further and further into his pitching-only career, he has a chance to really sharpen that whole arsenal and potentially stick as a starter if he can hold onto average command. The 6'3" righty has projection remaining and is trending in the right direction, and he has a chance to turn into a #4 starter or a power reliever in time.

5-145: LHP Hunter Patteson, Central Florida. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $394,500. Signing bonus: $394,500.
Hunter Patteson was draft eligible last year, but with a 5.50 ERA as a swingman for UCF, he opted to return to school to build his stock. He came out of the gate red hot in 2022, posting a 1.82 ERA and a 41/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 29.2 innings and teaming with Connor Staine to give the Knights one of the best one-two punches in the country. Unfortunately, like Staine he got hurt in April, and in this case that led to Tommy John surgery that ended his season prematurely. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and gets up to 96, showing serious hop that helps him miss more bats than the velocity says it should. The 6'4" lefty adds a slider and a changeup that are both solid average pitches, and his command has improved considerably during his time in Orlando. Royals fans will have to wait until 2023 to see Patteson on the mound, but once he does, he has the arm strength, command, and arsenal to start and potentially move quickly through the system. Given that he'll be turning 23 when that time comes, it also may make more sense to just stick him in the bullpen and let him pitch off that fastball, which could be overpowering in short stints.

6-175: C Hayden Dunhurst, Mississippi. My rank: #172.
Slot value: $298,800. Signing bonus: $300,000 ($1,200 above slot value).
This is a really interesting pick that has a chance to look like a steal. Hayden Dunhurst was a well-known draft name out of high school in 2019, but made it to campus at Mississippi and a .280/.385/.435 sophomore season put him squarely in the first round conversation as recently as six months ago. However, he was banged up early in the 2022 season and never got it going at the plate, finishing with an ugly .231/.370/.385 line, six home runs, and a 69/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. Entering the season, he was noted for his strong plate discipline and all-fields contact ability in addition to underlying above average raw power, and 2022 was supposed to be a matter of him showing he could tap both without sacrificing the other. Unfortunately, he wasn't able to show either the hit tool or the power, leading to both that sub-.400 slugging percentage and a strikeout rate north of 30%. He packs a lot of compact strength into a shorter 5'11" frame, so getting back to showing that above average power in games is not out of the question. He's patient at the plate, his at bats seemed to speed up on him in 2022 and it really brings the swing and miss into question, so I'd be more confident in the power coming back than the hit tool. Fortunately, the southern Mississippi native is an excellent defender with an absolute cannon behind the plate, with improving glovework as well that looks like it should be above average. He'll certainly stick back there and the defense will buy his bat plenty of time to catch up, with a good shot at becoming a glove-first backup catcher if he can take better control of his at bats. The Royals' farm system is not very deep, but catching is a strong point between MJ Melendez (no longer prospect eligible), Luca Tresh, Kale Emshoff, and Carter Jensen. Dunhurst will really have to see a resurgence in his bat to push past those guys. So far, he has three hits in seven at bats, including two doubles, to go along with more walks (3) than strikeouts (2) through three games in the Arizona Complex League.

7-205: RHP Mack Anglin, Clemson. My rank: #201.
Slot value: $233,600. Signing bonus: $231,100 ($2,500 below slot value).
Mack Anglin earned draft interest as a sophomore last year, but turned down the Nationals in the thirteenth round to return to school. The results were more or less the same, so now he'll head to the Royals with intriguing upside but considerable work to be done after posting a 4.48 ERA and a 78/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 76.1 innings as a full time starter for Clemson. Anglin has nasty pure stuff, probably the best in this entire Royals draft class, starting with a low to mid 90's fastball that gets up to 98 with explosive life. He throws a pair of vicious breaking balls in a curveball and slider, both of which flash plus with nasty, hard bite, while his changeup is a fringy fourth pitch. Despite explosive pure stuff, the Ohio native struck out only 22.6% of his opponents this spring as he regularly fell behind in the count and and became to predictable. He has a violent delivery that features a lot of late movement, causing him to struggle to repeat his release point and miss spots regularly. For that reason, he is almost certainly a reliever in pro ball, where his stuff could tick up even further as he really lets loose in short stretches. I am a bit concerned about that low strikeout rate but the idea of his stuff eating in the bullpen really intrigues me.

10-295: OF Levi Usher, Louisville. My rank: #223.
Slot value: $153,600. Signing bonus: $72,500 ($81,100 below slot value).
Levi Usher is an interesting senior sign, even if he lacks much upside. A native of Fairfax, Iowa, he graduated from Prairie High School in nearby Cedar Rapids and began his college career literally across the street at Kirkwood JC. There he was one of the best hitters on the Iowa JuCo circuit and made his way to Louisville, where he got off to a red hot start in 2020 before the pandemic shutdown and earned some first round consideration. Unfortunately he struggled to make any impact at all in 2021, lost his starting spot, and elected to return to school, where he rebounded to slash .285/.362/.455 with seven home runs, 36 stolen bases, and a 67/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games. Usher stands out first and foremost as a heady player with tremendous understanding of the game, which at the very least makes him a good guy to have around in your system working alongside younger guys. He's a plus runner and his speed actually plays better than that in games due to his instincts, and in 182 career games between Kirkwood and Louisville he stole 109 bases in 117 attempts for an elite 93.2% success rate. That speed also helps him in center field, where he's a plus defender with great instincts. The bat isn't quite as impactful as we thought it was a couple years ago, showing more line drive and gap power than true over the fence power. Combine that with a 23.9% strikeout rate this spring, and you have a 45 hitter with 40 power that likely will never hit enough to hold down an every day role. However, if he can put just enough balls in the gaps to hold his own in the lineup as a backup, that speed and defense could be valuable in Kansas City. Usher is struggling so far in the Arizona Complex League, picking up just one hit in eighteen at bats with six strikeouts to three walks through six games.

11-325: RHP David Sandlin, Oklahoma. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $400,000 ($275,000 against bonus pool).
If you stretch your imagination a bit, David Sandlin represents a semi-hometown pick in the same way that Cayden Wallace does. A product of Owasso High School in the northern Tulsa suburbs, he grew up less than four hours southwest of Kansas City before heading the opposite direction to Eastern Oklahoma State in Wilburton and finally the University of Oklahoma. He was inconsistent throughout the season, posting a 5.59 ERA and a 102/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 95 innings, but like so many other members of this Sooners team, he came up big when he was needed most. He has plenty of pure stuff, sitting in the low to mid 90's with a fastball that can reach 98 in addition to a slew of secondary stuff. His slider is his best pitch, with hard sweeping action that generates ugly swings, while his curveball is a little softer and deeper and his firm changeup provides another look. Sandlin comes from a higher release point and lacks deception, so hits stuff gets hit harder than it should when it catches too much plate. Tightening his fringe-average command will be helpful if he wants to remain a starter, as he does have the projectable 6'4" frame and deep arsenal to do so. If he does move back to the bullpen, he'll probably work off his fastball/slider combination and let an extra tick of velocity help make up for his somewhat generic fastball.

20-595: SS/RHP Austin Charles, Stockdale HS [CA]. My rank: #105.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $429,500 ($304,500 against bonus pool).
With their final pick of the draft, the Royals made a big splash by diverting Austin Charles away from a UC Santa Barbara commitment for top-150 money. One of two interesting two-way players in the Bakersfield high school ranks this spring, he'll get a chance to do both in the Royals system while his counterpart, Cutter Coffey, is a shortstop only in the Red Sox system. He's a big, lanky kid at 6'6", showing off plenty of athleticism and just oozing with potential. As a pitcher, he sits in the low 90's and can get up to 96, adding in a solid slider and a fringy changeup. The fastball is fairly straight and the offspeed stuff is inconsistent, so you're really buying the projection here. In addition to that big frame, he has a very quick arm and gets down the mound well with good extension, so there is a ton to work with. With some patience and the right development, the sky is the limit for him on the mound. His bat has also rapidly been improving, and I actually like him better as a position player. He shows plus raw power when he connects, with a simple right handed swing in which he keeps his hands inside the ball and lets his natural strength and leverage do the work. He has previously bee susceptible to breaking balls, but he's trending in the right direction and taking better at bats. At shortstop, he shows off his athleticism well and while he's not quite as quick with his feet and glovework as perhaps he could be, he may just need more time to develop and grow into his body. With that cannon of an arm, he would fit extremely well at third base. I'm very interested to see how this goes, and he's already gotten into two Arizona Complex League games as a hitter, picking up two hits in seven at bats with one strikeout.

2022 MLB Draft: One potential hometown pick for every AL/NL Central Team

This is the second installment in the three part hometown pick series, following the AL and NL West (you can now find the AL/NL East here). If you've followed me for any amount of time, you probably know that I love a good hometown pick. Over the offseason, I recreated all thirty teams if they only used players from their "home turf," and last year I practiced this same exercise for the draft. Last year, the central divisions actually followed along somewhat, with the Royals taking both Carter Jensen (Park Hill HS) and Ben Kudrna (Blue Valley Southwest HS) out of the Kansas City area and the Brewers drafting Oak Creek native Alex Binelas out of Louisville, though they lost their good standing by almost immediately trading him to Boston. With that, let's look at some hometown pick options for the AL and NL Central.

Chicago Cubs: 3B Estevan Moreno, Montini Catholic HS, Lombard, IL
Hometown: Hanover Park, IL. My rank: #95.
Two years ago, the Cubs drafted shortstop Ed Howard out of Mount Carmel HS on the South Side, and they'll have plenty of opportunities to do it again this year. Their #7 overall pick is probably a little bit too early to grab Oswego native Noah Schultz, who figures to go somewhere in the middle to back of the first round if signable, but head a little bit north and east and you have Hanover Park's Estevan Moreno, who is having a strong spring at Montini Catholic HS in Lombard. I'm a big fan of Moreno, who could fit somewhere in the third to fifth round range for the Cubs if they want to keep him home rather than let him move on to Notre Dame for school. He does a lot of things well at the plate, using an all fields approach that effectively helps him put barrel to baseball with regularity. Come into his wheelhouse, though, and there is plenty of strength in his 6'2" to really turn on the ball, and the hope is that in time, he'll learn to spread that power out to all fields. That would create a very favorable offensive profile combining power and a professional approach if it works out. There isn't as much upside on the defensive side, as he's an average athlete that can handle third base for now but will have to work to stay there rather than move to first base or an outfield corner. Moreno is a smart, driven kid that loves baseball and should thrive in a competitive environment in pro ball.
Other options: LHP Noah Schultz (Oswego East HS, IL), OF Clark Elliott (Michigan via Barrington, IL), RHP Owen Murphy (Riverside-Brookfield HS, Riverside, IL), OF Ryan Cermak (Illinois State via Riverside, IL), RHP AJ Izzi (Oswego East HS, IL)

Chicago White Sox: OF Ryan Cermak, Illinois State.
Hometown: Riverside, IL. My rank: #71.
I strongly considered Oswego East HS lefty Noah Schultz here, but even though the White Sox broke their streak of staying on the college side with Indiana high schooler Colson Montgomery last year, I think Schultz might be a hair too risky for them as a high school pitcher coming off a bout with mono. I honestly think he still has a decent chance of ending up on the South Side, but instead I'll go with Illinois State breakout star Ryan Cermak. Cermak attended Riverside-Brookfield High School just west of the Chicago city limits, then after hitting .284/.349/.553 as a sophomore but running up a 25.1% strikeout rate, he has improved significantly in all three slash categories this spring while dropping that strikeout rate. Though he's four inches shorter, he reminds me of Cincinnati's Joey Wiemer a few years ago as a super athlete from a mid-major Midwestern school with tools all over the place. Cermak has plus raw power that he has tapped very consistently against MVC pitching this spring, effectively channeling some moving parts in his load into a very simple, compact right handed swing. He's very aggressive at the plate but he has been at least a little more disciplined this spring, lending hope to an average hit tool. Given his immense athleticism, you may not be surprised to learn he's a plus runner with a plus arm that could be an asset in center field going forward. This seems to be a profile the White Sox could like, maybe not in the first round at pick #26 but potentially in the second round at pick #62 or in the third round at #101 if he slides a bit.
Other options: LHP Noah Schultz (Oswego East HS, IL), SS Ryan Ritter (Kentucky via Tinley Park, IL), 3B/RHP Jack Brannigan (Notre Dame via Orland Park, IL), RHP AJ Izzi (Oswego East HS, IL), LHP Cole Kirschsieper (Illinois via Frankfort, IL)

Cincinnati Reds: RHP Jacob Miller, Liberty Union HS, Baltimore, OH
Hometown: Baltimore, OH. My rank: #55.
The Reds love their prep bats, but there are none on my radar in that Ohio/Kentucky/Indiana area. They haven't drafted and signed a high school pitcher in any round since Lyon Richardson and Yomil Maysonet in 2018 (a year after Hunter Greene), but with five of the first 94 picks, they have some extra money to play around with and they have two really good options in their extended backyard. I took a good, hard look at Indianapolis righty Andrew Dutkanych, a personal favorite of mine, but ultimately decided to stay in state with another rising righty in Jacob Miller. Miller attends Liberty Union High School in Baltimore, a small Fairfield County town about half an hour southwest of Columbus, where he has been turning heads with a strong spring. Miller has a powerful right arm, sitting in the low to mid 90's and hitting 97 with his fastball, but he makes his money with a wicked curveball that ranks among the best in the class. He also adds a solid slider and changeup, giving him a full arsenal to succeed as a starting pitcher. The 6'2" righty fills up the strike zone well and has a sturdy frame, furthering that starter projection. Miller wasn't quite as consistent later in his high school season and does need to shore up his in-zone command a bit, but it's a very enticing profile for the Reds' picks at #32, #55, and #73. With a Louisville commitment in hand, he's likely to be very expensive at pick #73 and would still likely require an over slot bonus at #55, but Cincinnati has the money if they want to go that route.
Other options: RHP Andrew Dutkanych (Brebeuf Jesuit HS, IN), OF Alec Sayre (Wright State via Dover, OH), C Dalton Rushing (Louisville via Brighton, TN), 3B Ben Metzinger (Louisville via Louisville, KY), RHP Jared Poland (Louisville via Fishers, IN)

Cleveland Guardians: RHP Mack Anglin, Clemson
Hometown: Marengo, OH. My rank: unranked.
The Guardians like college arms and high school bats. There aren't any big name prep bats in Northern Ohio that I know of (and only one position player, Medina's Luke Raley, from Northern Ohio even appeared in an MLB game in 2021), so we'll go with a college arm. In 2021, Cleveland drafted a whole host of college arms that had gone unselected in the 2020 draft for one reason or another, including with five of their first eight picks, and in this case I have them doing that again in 2022. Mack Anglin could have gone somewhere in the middle of day two had he been signable, but ultimately opted to head back to Clemson and bet on himself. Anglin grew up in the tiny Central Ohio town of Marengo, home to 342 residents between Columbus and Mansfield on I-71, then headed south to Clemson for college. He flashed some of the nastiest pure stuff in the ACC last spring, when he struck out 75 batters over 56.1 innings as a draft-eligible sophomore, but he bet on himself and headed back to school. This year has been more or less much of the same, so if Cleveland wants to bring him back home, he probably figures once more somewhere in the middle of day two. Anglin runs his fastball into the mid 90's but stands out the most for his ability to spin the ball. His curveball is a plus pitch with vicious spin rates and his slider is a distinct, above average pitch in its own right, giving him numerous big league out pitches with which to attack hitters. Unfortunately, his command has been below average throughout his career and with a high effort delivery and a fringy changeup, he looks ticketed to the bullpen. Given how much starting pitching depth Cleveland has in the minors, they can stomach that and hope his stuff can take yet another step forward in the bullpen. I'd be really interested to see how that plays in short stints.
Other options: RHP Jacob Miller (Liberty Union HS, Baltimore, OH), 3B Zach Dezenzo (Ohio State via Alliance, OH), SS Phillip Glasser (Indiana via Tallmadge, OH), LHP Drake Batcho (Florida International via Warren, OH), SS Cole Young (North Allegheny HS, Wexford, PA)

Detroit Tigers: RHP Brock Porter, Orchard Lake St. Mary's HS, MI
Hometown: Milford, MI. My rank: #19.
I strongly considered having some fun and giving the Tigers Porter's battery mate Ike Irish, but ultimately, this was a match made in heaven and could really happen. The Tigers love young, hard throwing pitchers and have a history of drafting them from Beau Burrows to Jackson Jobe. Brock Porter could be next, and he would give them a Metro Detroit native. Porter grew up in Milford, just over thirty miles northwest of downtown in western Oakland County, and he commutes back east to play for the powerhouse Orchard Lake St. Mary's program that produced Alex Mooney last year and also includes Irish, as mentioned. Porter is one of the hardest throwers in the prep class, comfortably sitting in the mid 90's and reaching triple digits at his best, with the pitch really jumping on hitters. It's not just a case of him going all out, as he has the arm strength to hold that mid 90's velocity deep into his starts. He throws two breaking balls in a loopy curveball and an inconsistent slider, though the latter flashes plus at its best and the former could tighten into an out pitch as he develops. Unlike most power high school arms, he actually stands out the most for his changeup, a plus pitch that has really dazzled hitters everywhere he's gone. Also unlike most preps that throw as hard as he does, the 6'4" righty does a good job of filling up the strike zone, though he does need to get a bit better about hitting his spots. Still, when you throw that hard, you don't have to be perfect. Porter has a clean, athletic delivery, but there is some head whack to be cognizant of. One small drawback in the profile is age, as he turns 19 more than a month before the draft and is older than some college freshmen. It will be expensive to buy him out of a Clemson commitment but at pick #12, Detroit shouldn't have to go too far above slot value.
Other options: C Ike Irish (Orchard Lake St. Mary's HS, MI via Hudsonville, MI), OF Gregory Pace (Edison HS, Detroit, MI), RHP Andrew Taylor (Central Michigan via Alto, MI), OF Nolan Schubart (Orchard Lake St. Mary's HS, MI via Durand, MI), OF Clark Elliott (Michigan via Barrington, IL)

Kansas City Royals: RHP Karson Milbrandt, Liberty HS, MO
Hometown: Liberty, MO. My rank: #123.
Last year, the Royals not only drafted the Ben Kudrna (Blue Valley Southwest HS), hometown pick I gave them in last year's article, they also made it double and grabbed Carter Jensen (Park Hill HS) as well. This year, I'll go back to the high school ranks again and put Karson Milbrandt on their radar, who is having a nice spring at Liberty High School northeast of the city. He stands out first and foremost for his fastball, typically a low 90's pitch that has gotten up to 96 this year. Coming from a low arm slot, the pitch features huge spin rates and a ton of arm side run, making it one of the tougher fastballs to square up in the class. He's gotten more consistent with his offspeed stuff this year, showing an above average slider and flipping in an average curveball. His changeup is behind, which isn't uncommon for prep arms, but we have the chance for a full starter's arsenal from a unique slot. Milbrandt's command comes and goes and there is certainly reliever risk, especially combined with the lower slot and his smaller 6'1" frame, but he's on the younger side having only turned 18 in April and has time to fill out. Perhaps most importantly for Kansas City, his Vanderbilt commitment will make him an expensive sign, especially if they wait until their third round pick to grab him. High school pitchers are unpredictable, but the second round feels a bit rich for right now.
Other options: 2B Robert Moore (Arkansas via Leawood, KS), RHP Jacob Misiorowski (Crowder JC via Grain Valley, MO), RHP Ben Bybee (Blue Valley Southwest HS, Overland Park, KS), LHP Jake Bennett (Oklahoma via Bixby, OK), RHP Carter Rustad (Missouri via Kansas City, MO)

Milwaukee Brewers: SS Gavin Kilen, Milton HS, WI
Hometown: Milton, WI. My rank: #53.
Like the Royals, the Brewers took my advice and drafted last year's hometown pick Alex Binelas (Oak Creek native) in the third round, though they promptly traded him to Boston in the Hunter Renfroe deal. They like their young hitters and have seen some success from guys like Felix Valerio, Joey Wiemer, Sal Frelick, and Jackson Chourio, even if they're still waiting on Garrett Mitchell and Hedbert Perez to find their groove. For that reason, there's a chance they could go out to that I-90 corridor and grab Gavin Kilen out of Milton High School just north of Janesville. Kilen can really, really play, utilizing a very mature approach at the plate and strong bat to ball skills to make contact as consistently as anybody in the class outside of that top tier. He also plays a slick shortstop with plenty of range. One the down side, the Milton native is far from the most physical player in the class, with a skinny 5'11" frame that does not produce much power to this point, especially since he's more focused on all fields, line drive contact. Kilen also has some arm strength, but not quite the cannon teams look for at shortstop and he may fit better at second base, where he would be above average. Coming into the season, Kilen and potential top five pick Jackson Holliday were very fairly similar players, but Holliday has gotten much stronger and had an electric spring while Kilen has underwhelmed just a touch. If his ends up being a late bloomer physically like Holliday, he could end up an extremely well-rounded player in the end. Committed to Louisville like so many others from the area in recent years, he could go get stronger with the Cardinals, but it would be fun to see the Brewers jump on him in the second or CBB round.
Other options: LHP Connor Prielipp (Alabama via Tomah, WI), 3B Max Wagner (Clemson via Green Bay, WI), OF Tommy Specht (Wahlert Catholic HS, Dubuque, IA), RHP Jack Washburn (Mississippi via Webster, WI), C Drake Baldwin (Missouri State via Madison, WI)

Minnesota Twins: RHP Adam Mazur, Iowa
Hometown: Woodbury, MN. My rank: #32.
There are two Washington County products that figure to go in the top fifty or so picks in this draft between Tennessee's Drew Gilbert and Iowa's Adam Mazur. Minnesota's second round pick doesn't roll around until #48 and may not get a shot at either, but between the two, Mazur is probably more likely to be available (getting blown up by Indiana recently doesn't hurt his chances of reaching #48 either). The pick would make sense, too, after the Twins spent last year's second round pick on another funky Big Ten arm in Michigan's Steven Hajjar. Mazur went to Woodbury High School in St. Paul's eastern suburbs, where he played against nearby Stillwater High School's stars Gilbert and Will Frisch (now at Oregon State) and alongside Marlins top prospect Max Meyer. He's well-travelled throughout the Upper Midwest, having begun his career at South Dakota State before transferring back east to Iowa, where he's seen his stock rise significantly. Mazur sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and gets up to 97 with arm side run, while a plus slider with deep bite is his best secondary. He also shows a solid curveball and changeup, giving him a full arsenal. The 6'4" righty is plenty projectable and is really growing into his body well, getting more consistent with his mechanics and improving his command along the way. He has a chance to be an impact starting pitcher and he could do so at home in Minnesota.
Other options: OF Drew Gilbert (Tennessee via Stillwater, MN), RHP Will Frisch (Oregon State via Stillwater, MN), 1B Peyton Williams (Iowa via Johnston, IA), 3B Mac Horvath (North Carolina via Rochester, MN), RHP Seth Halvorsen (Tennessee via Plymouth, MN)

Pittsburgh Pirates: SS Cole Young, North Allegheny HS, Wexford, PA
Hometown: Wexford, PA. My rank: #36.
The Pirates went all out last year when they had the largest bonus pool and signed Anthony Solometo, Lonnie White Jr., and Bubba Chandler to massive over slot bonuses, and this year they can be aggressive again with the fourth largest pool of any team and three of the first 44 picks. While Cole Young won't be in play at the fourth overall pick, he makes sense as a reasonable over slot candidate at #36 or #44 if he wants to stay home. Young attends North Allegheny High School in Wexford, a northern suburb of Pittsburgh within a few miles of David Bednar's Mars Area High School and Neil Walker's Pine-Richland High School. In stark contrast to fellow prep shortstops Jackson Holliday, Mikey Romero, and Max Martin, Young has seen his stock hold extremely steady throughout the cycle, a testament to his simple, consistent style of play. He's a very heady ballplayer that makes, you guessed it, very consistent hard contact at the plate, using a line drive approach that serves him just as well against high-octane showcase arms as it does against the Pittsburgh-area high school competition back home. He finds the sweet spot regularly on pitches inside and outside the zone, handling velocity and quality breaking balls with ease. While that contact-over-power approach does limit his game power a bit, he produces higher exit velocities than you'd expect given his skinny six foot frame when he does decide to turn on one. Young is also a strong defender with a good chance to stick at shortstop, further adding to his value. Committed to Duke, he will likely be an expensive sign.
Other options: OF Paxton Kling (Central HS, Roaring Spring, PA), RHP Jake Madden (Northwest Florida State JC via Enola, PA), C Matt Wood (Penn State via Gibsonia, PA), OF Derek Orndorff (Liberty via Mill Run, PA), RHP Cameron Weston (Michigan via Canonsburg, PA)

St. Louis Cardinals: 3B Cayden Wallace, Arkansas
Hometown: Greenbrier, AR. My rank: #62.
It's a down year for talent in the Eastern Missouri/Southern Illinois region this year, so I had to cast my net a little wider to bring a hometown pick to St. Louis. Living in Texas, I've learned that Arkansas (especially northern and eastern Arkansas) is deep Cardinals country, so I feel perfectly good going down to the Natural State to grab Cayden Wallace as the Cardinals' hometown pick. Wallace grew up in the small town of Greenbrier, about 45 minutes north of Little Rock and five and a half hours southwest of Busch Stadium. He was a big time prospect at Greenbrier High School that was good enough to hear his name called in the five round draft in 2020, but signability led him to Fayetteville instead where he has built his stock further. Seen as mostly a power hitter in high school, Wallace got on base at a .369 clip as a true freshman and .352 in the Cape Cod League and is now flirting with .400 this season as of this writing. He still possesses plus raw power from the right side, capable of producing big exit velocities and putting the ball out to all fields. Wallace is still learning pitch selection and can be susceptible to offspeed stuff, but he's improving and his ability to keep his barrel long through the zone helps him limit his strikeouts to a reasonable number. His future position is up in the air, as his cannon arm alone gives him a shot at third base, but he still has some work to do with the glove if he wants to stay there. He runs well for his size and could be a solid defender in right field. The Cardinals like these more or less complete college bats with some pop, so it would not be surprising to see Wallace head across the border to St. Louis. It seems unlikely they would bite with their 22nd overall pick unless he catches fire through the postseason, but if he's still available at pick #59, it would make a lot of sense. He probably fits about a dozen or so picks before that on talent alone but signability may play a factor as he's sophomore eligible and does not turn 21 until August.
Other options: C Dalton Rushing (Louisville via Brighton, TN), LHP Bradley Loftin (DeSoto Central HS, Southaven, MS), OF Kevin Graham (Mississippi via O'Fallon, MO), C Jimmy Obertop (Michigan via St. Louis, MO), RHP Collin Baumgartner (SIU Edwardsville via Brighton, IL)

The Top Ten Prospects Returning to School in 2022

After the 2020 draft, we saw an unprecedented number of draft-eligible college stars return to school because of the shortened draft, headlined by players like Florida's Tommy Mace, ECU's Gavin Williams, and Ohio State's Seth Lonsway (as I wrote about after the fact). Williams ended up being the first 2020-eligible player drafted in 2021 at 23rd overall, followed by Florida State's Matheu Nelson at 35th overall and Fordham's Matt Mikulski at 50th overall. While we certainly don't have the same depth in the 2021 class of returners given the fifteen extra rounds, we may have even greater star power at the top after a couple of early picks went unsigned, of course led by the high profile Kumar Rocker debacle. Let's take a look at the top ten draft prospects returning to school after being eligible in 2021. Rankings are from my personal board and the list goes by that board, not their 2022 draft status.

1. RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt (?). 2021 rank: #10.
2021 stats: 14-4, 2.73 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 179/39 K/BB in 122 IP.
Most of us have heard all about this one by now. Kumar Rocker, the most famous name in college baseball, was drafted tenth overall by the Mets and initially agreed to a $6 million signing bonus, but a dispute over his medical led to New York completely rescinding their offer, deciding the compensation they'd get in 2022 would be more valuable than giving him even a single penny to sign. Of course, that leaves Rocker in a pickle because he was in effect barred from playing affiliated professional baseball as a result, through no fault of his own. It sounds like he won't be going back to Vanderbilt in 2022, where he would head up a rotation with some ultra talented up-and-comers like Patrick Reilly and Christian Little. That could change, and as a fan of college baseball myself, I'd love to see that happen. There are plenty of independent league teams throughout the US that would kill for the opportunity to get him on their club, and he could also take the Carter Stewart route through Japan or another foreign professional league. Or he could just work out on his own and throw bullpens for scouts, which to me sounds pretty boring but could be the best way for him to control his future. If his stuff stays where it is now and he proves fully healthy one way or another, then he'll likely hear his name called in back to back first rounds a la Mark Appel (though let's hope his career goes a bit smoother than Appel's). We've all heard plenty about the stuff by now, but let's talk about it one more time. The 6'5" righty pounds the strike zone with a low to mid 90's fastball that can get into the upper 90's, though at times it can play a bit true and scouts have nitpicked his ability to command it within the zone. He throws a slider that can be double-plus at its best, such as when he used it to finish all nineteen of his strikeouts in a super regional no-hitter against Duke as a freshman, though at times it got a bit slurvy in 2021. Rocker has also developed a cutter that looks like an above average pitch and has shown solid feel for a changeup, though the latter was hit hard at times in 2021. There's obviously huge upside here as a true ace, but of course he has a lot of questions to answer in 2022.

2. OF Jud Fabian, Florida. 2021 rank: #22.
2021 stats: 20 HR, 46 RBI, .249/.364/.560, 6 SB, 79/40 K/BB in 59 games.
Like Kumar Rocker, Jud Fabian was drafted early (in this case 40th overall), but it was a slightly different situation. While Rocker and the Mets disagreed over his medicals and the Mets outright refused to offer him a dollar, Fabian and the Red Sox disagreed over money. Fabian made it clear he wanted something in the ballpark of $3 million and it was rumored that other teams farther down in the second round were willing to give it to him, but Boston took him earlier and offered him a fraction of that. Because Fabian is extremely young for his class and doesn't turn 21 until September, he held extra leverage and was able to hold his ground for the bonus he wanted, and ultimately the Red Sox couldn't meet it. He'll return to Gainesville for a fourth season and will fit right in age-wise with the 2022 first-time college draftees, perhaps a hair on the older side but still in the same range as guys like Jace Jung, Hayden Dunhurst, and Chase DeLauter. Fabian stands out for a combination of feel and tools at a young age, showing plus raw power that he taps consistently in games including not one but two home runs off of second overall pick Jack Leiter. He had one of the best eyes in the class at determining balls from strikes and also did well with fastballs versus offspeed pitches, so he rarely chased even against quality SEC stuff. The only problem here was the pure bat to ball skills, as the Ocala native struggled mightily with swing and miss even on pitches in the zone. This was due to a quick uppercut that naturally comes with more swing and miss, but he got so streaky at times (including sixteen strikeouts in a five game span against South Carolina and Ole Miss) that teams were too nervous to give him his money in the first round. Back in Gainesville next year, he'll work to prove that he can catch up to premium SEC fastballs, and if he can have a slump-free run next spring, we could be talking top half of the first round.

3. RHP Jonathan Cannon, Georgia. 2021 rank: #99.
2021 stats: 4-2, 3.98 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 57/13 K/BB in 63.1 IP.
Jonathan Cannon entered the spring with a chance to pitch his way into the first round, and in January I had him right on the fringes of that first round range. He missed the start of the season with mono, then tossed six shutout innings over his first two starts against Georgia Southern and Lipscomb as he got back on track. However, he ultimately ended up looking much more "good" than "great," with seven scoreless innings against Vanderbilt on April 10th being his only true gem. Cannon sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can reach back for up to 96-97 early in starts, and there have been times where he's been able to touch the mid 90's late in starts as well. He adds a horizontal slider with some snap and a changeup with nice fade, and while they both have their moments, they look closer to average than plus. The big 6'6" righty does an excellent job of filling up the strike zone and only walked multiple batters in three of his thirteen starts, though to this point the control is ahead of the command and he can get hit when he leaves pitches over the plate. Right now, the profile seems *this close* to being that of an impact starter, and he'll look to get over that hump back in Athens in 2022. If he can get just a little more consistent with his offspeed stuff or perhaps tighten his in-zone command just a hair, we have a top two rounds prospect. The Atlanta-area native was eligible as a sophomore last year with a July birthday so he'll be just slightly older than most first-time eligible players in 2022.

4. LHP Andrew Walling, Eastern Oklahoma State JC -> Mississippi State. 2021 rank: #103.
2021 stats: 10-2, 2.45 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 107/27 K/BB in 69.2 IP.
Eastern Oklahoma State College in Wilburton, Oklahoma compiled an extremely talented rotation in 2021, one that sent Christian McGowan to the Phillies in the seventh round and could have sent Andrew Walling to pro ball even earlier if he was signable. Instead, he'll head east to Mississippi State, where he'll help the Bulldogs fill the massive holes left by their top two starters, Will Bednar (Giants, first round) and Christian MacLeod (Twins, fifth round). Walling began his career at Oregon State but threw just 10.1 innings from 2019-2020 (while walking eleven), and consistent innings in Wilburton turned out to be just what he needed. His control improved to fringe-average, which helped his big stuff play up. The Longview, Washington native sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has touched 97-98, holding that velocity throughout his starts for the most part. He has great feel to spin the ball and shows a big curveball with depth and a sharp slider that he locates well, in addition to a decent changeup. The 6'3" lefty has a durable frame and a pretty repeatable delivery, and he has a very good chance to take over a weekend rotation spot in Starkville even as he competes with Jackson Fristoe, Landon Sims, and other holdovers. I would consider myself one of the high guys on Walling as far as the 2021 draft goes, and while he'll be on the older side in 2022 as he'll pitch the entire season at 22 years old, I definitely see mid-rotation upside.

5. OF Isaiah Thomas, Vanderbilt (?). My rank: #109.
2021 stats: 13 HR, 40 RBI, .305/.361/.583, 12 SB, 63/9 K/BB in 59 games.
Vanderbilt is returning a hell of a lineup next spring, with catcher CJ Rodriguez (A's, fifth round) and third baseman Jayson Gonzalez (White Sox, seventeenth round) being the only major losses. They didn't think they'd be getting back right fielder Isaiah Thomas, who might have the highest offensive ceiling in the entire program aside from potential 2022 first rounder Carter Young, but here we are. Few players anywhere in college baseball can scorch a line drive like Thomas, who packs a ton of lean strength into his 6'3" frame and shows plus raw power from the right side. He's also shown a very accurate barrel that has consistently punished quality SEC pitching, which is especially notable because he was one of the most aggressive hitters in the draft class last year. Thomas swings at pretty much everything even remotely hittable, walking an average of just once every six and a half games while striking out at a 25.7% clip. Honestly to me, that makes his ability to do consistent damage against high-end pitching very impressive, and I really think the sky is the limit. In 2022, the South Florida native will really need to tone down his approach and show the ability to work counts rather than just hacking away until something happens, and if he can even get his K/BB ratio to something like a 2:1 or 3:1 rather than the 7:1 he showed in 2021, he could be one of the first seniors drafted.
*Update, the day after I published this article, Isaiah Thomas announced his intention to step away from the Vanderbilt baseball program for mental health reasons.

6. RHP Dylan Ross, Northwest Florida State JC -> Georgia. My rank: #158.
2021 stats: 6-2, 3.88 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 77/28 K/BB in 60.1 IP.
Dylan Ross began his career at Eastern Kentucky, but earned just four innings out of the Colonels bullpen and transferred to Northwest Florida State in the panhandle. He showed flashes of dominance, such as when he struck out fifteen against Tallahassee JC, and now he'll return to his home state of Georgia to join Jonathan Cannon in the Bulldogs rotation and replace Ryan Webb (Indians, fourth round). Ross is all about power. His fastball sits consistently in the mid 90's and has touched as high as 99, so triple digits are not out of the question in 2022. He adds a short, tight slider in the mid to upper 80's that can miss bats when it's located, while his equally hard splitter really gets hitters off balance. The 6'5" righty has long levers and throws with some effort, so he often has a hard time keeping everything in sync and can get scattered. He was able to blow baseballs by Florida JuCo hitters and that masked some of his control questions, but the transition to more polished SEC hitters in 2022 will be closely watched. The Statesboro native also faces relief questions because everything he throws is hard, and he currently lacks the ability to change speeds and mess with hitters' timing like you'd expect from a starting pitcher. If the Georgia staff can help him develop something softer, perhaps a changeup or a curveball, that could go a long way, but of course the command does need to be addressed as well. He'll be age appropriate in 2022, pitching the whole season at 21 years old.

7. RHP Troy Melton, San Diego State. My rank: #163.
2021 stats: 4-5, 6.14 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 83/30 K/BB in 73.1 IP.
Troy Melton continues the theme of younger players who weren't yet 21 on draft day. He's fairly new to pitching and when you combine that with his extreme youth, scouts were willing to give him more slack than most other prospects. However, he still wasn't quite effective enough this spring to give scouts confidence in projecting him as a starter, allowing at least four runs in six of his last seven starts. Melton is a natural on the mound with a low to mid 90's fastball that he can run up to 97, while his lower release point and nice extension make the pitch play up. He adds a sweepy slider and a more top to bottom, get-me-over curveball, as well as a decent changeup. While he has a tendency to leave pitches over the plate, he shows average command and has a very repeatable delivery. The 6'4" righty moves extremely well on the mound and shows the kind of profile that will be really malleable once he gets into pro ball. Now that he'll be age-appropriate rather than a full year younger than his drat-eligible peers (he doesn't turn 21 until December), scouts will want to see a little more development in his game, but overall it's still a really fun ball of clay to work with. The Orange County native will go back to San Diego State in 2022 to prove that he can make it as a starting pitcher, hopefully taking that next step that scouts have been hoping for.

8. RHP Mack Anglin, Clemson. My rank: #183.
2021 stats: 2-6, 3.99 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 75/33 K/BB in 56.1 IP.
Mack Anglin was actually drafted by the Nationals in the thirteenth round as backup in case Brady House or Daylen Lile didn't sign, but they both did and Anglin wanted more money than Washington could offer him. He was eligible as a sophomore due to a July birthday, so after being relatively young for last year's class, he'll just be relatively old for this one. Anglin stands out for his ability to just rip through a baseball on the mound, getting exceptionally high spin rates on his stuff that really make the ball dance. His fastball sits in the mid 90's while his curveball and slider are unique, plus pitches. However, it's clearly a relief profile at this point because he has a high effort delivery and can struggle to throw consistent strikes, and for that reason, teams didn't want to meet his asking price. The central Ohio native has a chance to go back to Clemson and smooth things out a bit, and if he can, the pure stuff fits in the top one hundred picks. He was sharp in the Cape Cod League and struck out sixteen in 12.2 innings, but the delivery still looked a bit rushed and he still has a reliever profile for now. We'll see where that stands after another full season in the ACC.

9. RHP Brandon Birdsell, Texas Tech. My rank: #184.
2021 stats: 4-1, 3.06 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 36/9 K/BB in 35.1 IP.
I'd like to congratulate Brandon Birdsell for making this list two years in a row, as he ranked fifth a year ago coming out of San Jacinto JC. At this point last year, he was just breaking out as a prospect and had a ton of helium behind his name, but the fact that COVID shut down his breakout season meant that teams weren't quite comfortable enough with his track record to sign him away from a Texas Tech commitment. Birdsell continued that breakout in 2021 and allowed no more than one earned run in any of his final five starts, but unfortunately went down with a shoulder injury in April and never got back on the mound. Shoulders are really scary and teams were justifiably nervous to pay him like an impact pitching prospect, so he'll head back to Texas Tech in 2022 where he will look to prove his health. He has a good opportunity there with Mason Montgomery (Rays, sixth round), Ryan Sublette (Dodgers, seventh round), Hunter Dobbins (Red Sox, eighth round), and Patrick Monteverde (Marlins, eighth round) all gone to pro ball, as well as Micah Dallas having transferred to Texas A&M and Connor Queen graduating, so the Red Raiders are wide open for innings next spring. When healthy, the Southeast Texas product has two big league pitches in a mid 90's fastball that has gotten up to 99 as well as a power upper 80's slider. He also adds a newer curveball and a changeup that look solid at times but need more consistency. Birdsell pounds the strike zone and shows average command when healthy, so he has a chance to really improve his stock with a healthy 2022. That and further refinement of his curve or changeup will help teams project him as a starter, whereas if any of that lags, he might have more of a reliever outlook. The 6'2" righty was drafted by the Twins in the eleventh round this year but didn't sign.

10. LHP Austin Krob, Texas Christian. My rank: #186.
2021 stats: 8-1, 3.81 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 96/37 K/BB in 85 innings.
Austin Krob looked to be an interesting late day two option, but instead he went undrafted and is heading back to TCU for a third season, which was preceded by a year at Kirkwood JC in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Since he'll turn 22 in September, he's the oldest player on this list and will therefore be nearly 23 by the time he gets into pro ball. He was pretty dependable this spring and with Russell Smith (Brewers, second round) and Johnny Ray (White Sox, twelfth round) gone to pro ball, he's the only returning member of the weekend rotation. The 6'3" lefty is up to the task, showing solid command of a quality four pitch mix. His fastball sits in the low 90's and gets up to 94-95, while his sweepy slider and fading changeup are regularly above average. He can morph that slider into more of a downer curveball, though it's better when it's a true slider. Krob uses a low three quarters delivery that puts some lateral angle on the baseball, and while he doesn't figure to miss a ton of bats in pro ball, he profiles well as a back-end starter that can eat innings and generate weak contact. The Iowa native seems like he is what he is as a prospect, so staying healthy and continuing to miss bats in the Big 12 will be on his to-do list in 2022.

Others:
#191 LHP Julian Bosnic, South Carolina
#192 1B Dominic Keegan, Vanderbilt
#194 LHP Pete Hansen, Texas
#196 1B Ivan Melendez, Texas
#201 RHP Will Frisch, Oregon State
#203 RHP Mason Pelio, Boston College
#216 OF Levi Usher, Louisville