Top Relief Pitchers of the 2019-2020 Offseason

*RE24 measures run expectancy reduction, which I think is a good way of measuring a reliever's success. It's calculated by the run expectancy when the pitcher entered the game subtracted from the run expectancy after he left. For example, run expectancy at the start of an inning is 0.46 runs, so a scoreless inning gives you 0.46 in RE24. If you allow a run, it's 0.46 – 1 = -0.54. This can be applied to all situations, such as if you start the inning, give up a leadoff single, and get lifted for another reliever, you get 0.46 – 0.83 = -0.37 added, or 0.37 subtracted, regardless of if that run eventually scores.

Right Handed Relievers

1. Dellin Betances (2020 Age: 32)
2019: 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP, 0.40 RE24, 2/0 K/BB in 0.2 IP
What a rough contract year it was for Dellin Betances. From 2014-2018, he was one of the best relievers in baseball and struck out at least 100 in each season while never seeing his ERA rise above 3.08, and he obviously came into 2019 with equally high expectations. However, shoulder problems kept him off the mound until September, and in his very first inning back, literally the first one, he tore his achilles and was not only knocked out for the season, but for a lot of the offseason as well. The ceiling is tremendous here, and not just the 6'8" Betances doesn't do well with low ceilings. When healthy, he has an elite power arm that can blow the ball by almost any hitter, and he could be a late inning weapon for multiple seasons for whichever team signs him. However, he also has to prove he's healthy, as the shoulder injury caused a velocity dip and shoulders can be a big deal. He'll also likely have to be brought along slowly in spring training while rehabbing that achilles, which won't help him to prove he can get that velocity back. It's a risk, but it could pay off big time. For his career, the Manhattan native has a 2.36 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 621/170 strikeout to walk ratio over 381.2 innings since 2011.

2. Will Harris (2020 Age: 35-36)
2019: 1.50 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 17.97 RE24, 62/14 K/BB in 60 IP
In a time where relievers are as inconsistent as any position on the diamond, Will Harris has kept his ERA below 3.00 and his WHIP below 1.05 in four of the past five seasons. In 2019, he was at his best, setting career bests with his 1.50 ERA and 0.93 WHIP out of his hometown* Astros' pen (*kind of, he was born in Houston and raised one state over in Louisiana). Harris continued his domination through almost the entire postseason, as he tossed nine shutout innings on five hits, one walk, and eleven strikeouts over his first ten appearances before allowing home runs to Anthony Rendon and Howie Kendrick in games six and seven of the World Series. Those two swings might have cost him some money, but going off the larger sample, even at 35 years old, Will Harris provides the best healthy right arm on the relief market and should be a fixture in the back end of whatever bullpen he joins. For his career, the LSU product has a 2.84 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 422/102 strikeout to walk ratio over 396.1 innings since 2012.

3. Steve Cishek (2020 Age: 33-34)
2019: 2.95 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 6.31 RE24, 57/29 K/BB in 64 IP
Like Harris, Steve Cishek has been pretty consistent throughout his career, and he's rattled off four straight seasons with an ERA below 3.00. His velocity has gone down a bit as he's aged, having turned 33 this past season, but what used to be his high strikeout totals have turned into elite soft-contact rates, showing that he still knows how to be effective even now that he's past his prime. A long term deal might be a stretch here, but Cishek should be a valuable late inning reliever for the near future. For his career, the Massachusetts native has a 2.69 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 584/211 strikeout to walk ratio over 556 innings since 2010.

4. Daniel Hudson (2020 Age: 33)
2019: 2.47 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 12.77 RE24, 71/27 K/BB in 73 IP
If Will Harris was the model of consistency in relief pitching, then Daniel Hudson is proof as to why Harris is such a rare breed. The man who closed out the Nationals' first ever World Series was signed not by the Blue Jays this offseason, but by the Angels, who released him in March before he signed a minor league deal with Toronto. After posting a 3.00 ERA and a 48/23 K/BB for the Jays, he was sent to the Nationals for minor leaguer Kyle Johnston and promptly took off, finishing out the year with a 1.44 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and a 23/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 innings for Washington, more than likely being the difference between the team winning the World Series and sitting at home without so much as a playoff berth. It's hard to say whether he'll maintain this dominance next year, as his exit velocities have been going up, but the performance he put up in 2020 gives him some of the best upside of any reliever in this class outside that top tier. For his career, the Virginia Beach native has a 3.83 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 616/223 strikeout to walk ratio over 692.2 innings since 2009.

5. Brandon Kintzler (2020 Age: 35-36)
2019: 2.68 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 11.89 RE24, 48/13 K/BB in 57 IP
Kintzler does not throw hard, but he's the rare reliever that gets by on command rather than stuff. Aside from a rough run with the Cubs towards the end of 2018 and an injury-riddled 2015, he's been largely an effective late inning weapon over the past eight or so seasons. In 2019, he had career-bests with his 2.68 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and .215 opponents' batting average, as his heavy sinker kept the juiced balls on the ground and out of the stands, even if they were being hit hard. While 2019 was a big success in that regard, his exit velocities have been climbing as he's aged and it's not certain that his ability to keep getting ground ball contact will be sustainable, but for now it works and he's been more consistent than most relievers. For his career, the Las Vegas native has a 3.37 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 299/110 strikeout to walk ratio over 424.1 innings since 2010.

6. Craig Stammen (2020 Age: 36)
2019: 3.29 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 3.86 RE24, 73/15 K/BB in 82 IP
For a guy who's relatively unknown, Craig Stammen has been pretty darn good over the past decade. In fact, he hasn't posted an ERA above 3.84 since 2010, during which he's had six full seasons. In fact, when healthy, he's been one of the game's most consistent long relievers, as he's thrown over 72 innings in relief six times in his career and over 80 innings in relief four times. That's becoming more important, not less important, as starters go shorter and shorter and next year relievers will be forced to face at least three batters or finish an inning. Though he turns 36 shortly before the 2020 season, his velocity has not dropped yet, and with his strong command and heavy sinker, he should be able to provide a very effective seventh – eighth inning arm in the near term. For his career, the Ohio native has a 3.63 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 605/209 strikeout to walk ratio over 732 innings since 2009.

Others
Chris Martin (3.40 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 65/5 K/BB, age 33-34)
Brandon Morrow (did not pitch, injured, age 35-36)
Jeremy Jeffress (5.02 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 46/17 K/BB, age 32)
Sergio Romo (3.43 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 60/17 K/BB, age 37)
Nate Jones (3.48 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 32/15 K/BB, age 34)

Left Handed Relievers

1. Will Smith (2020 Age: 30-31)
2019: 2.76 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 12.76 RE24, 96/21 K/BB in 65.1 IP
Now that Aroldis Chapman has been extended by the Yankees, Will Smith is by far the best left handed reliever on the market. No, not the actor Will Smith, and no, not the Dodgers' star rookie catcher Will Smith, we're talking about the Will Smith that has been the Giants' closer for the past year and a half. He's held an ERA below 2.80 in three of the past four seasons and in 2019, he set a career high with a 37.4% strikeout rate after previously having sat in the 30-34% range. Left handed hitters are virtually helpless against him, and in 2019 they slashed .157/.167/.229 across 72 plate appearances (versus .212/.297/.412 against right handers). For his career, the Georgian has a 3.53 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 494/149 strikeout to walk ratio over 410.2 innings since 2012.

2. Francisco Liriano (2020 Age: 36)
2019: 3.47 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 0.23 RE24, 63/35 K/BB in 70 IP
After Smith, there are no "sure things" available when it comes to left handed relievers. The best of the rest is probably Francisco Liriano, who successfully transitioned from the rotation to the bullpen after 14 years as a major league starting pitcher. He got solid results, posting a 3.47 ERA and a 63/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 innings, holding lefties to a .194/.326/.333 line while righties hit .246/.329/.401. While he's clearly much better against left handed hitters, his ability to pitch multiple innings should make up that value and keep him from becoming a LOOGY, which will be mostly out of commission for 2020 and beyond. He recently turned 36, but he'll be in demand in a shallow market for left handed relief pitching. For his career, the Dominican has a 4.15 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and an 1815/816 strikeout to walk ratio over 1813.2 innings since 2005.

3. Jake Diekman (2020 Age: 33)
2019: 4.65 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 1.03 RE24, 84/39 K/BB in 62 IP
Jake Diekman has made at least 66 appearances in five of the past six seasons, demonstrating durability and dependability. He was really good in 2016, when he had a 3.40 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP across 53 innings, but he's been mostly average the past two seasons with ERA's of 4.73 and 4.65 as he's topped 70 appearances both times. With the LOOGY going away, it will be extremely important for lefties to be able to handle right handed batters, and Diekman held them to a .210/.347/.329 line in 2019 (versus .224/.362/.294 against lefties). He might not get more than a minor league deal, but he'll be a good sixth or seventh inning guy who can come in often and eat middle innings. For his career, the small town Nebraska native has a 3.90 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a 467/208 strikeout to walk ratio over 374 innings since 2012.

Others
Blaine Hardy (4.47 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 29/13 K/BB, age 33)
Tony Cingrani (did not pitch, injured, age 30-31)
Wade LeBlanc (5.71 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 92/31 K/BB, age 35-36)

Nationals Re-Sign Brandon Kintzler

Brandon Kintzler: 4-3, 3.03 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 39/16 K/BB, 71.1 IP
Two years, $10 million. Option for 2020, plus incentives could bring deal to $16 million

The back of the Nationals' bullpen will look similar to last year, as Brandon Kintzler is returning on a two year deal and Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson never left. The Nationals acquired Kintzler from the Twins at the trade deadline for a minor league arm, and he threw for a 3.46 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 12/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings down the stretch. Unlike many relievers nowadays, he doesn't strike out a ton of hitters, instead relying on weak contact and ground balls. In fact, he had a 54.9% ground ball rate in 2017 as well as a 25.7% hard contact rate, leading to a .271 opponents' BABIP. His deal is worth $10 million over two years, but if incentives are met and the 2020 option is exercised, it could be a three year deal worth $16 million. For his career, the righty out of Dixie State is 14-14 with a 3.26 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 208/75 strikeout to walk ratio over 306.2 innings. 

Nationals Finish Bullpen Rebuild, Add Brandon Kintzler

Nationals Get: Brandon Kintzler (2-2, 2.78 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 28 SV, 27/11 K/BB, Age 33)
Twins Get: Tyler Watson (6-4, 4.35 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 98/24 K/BB at Class A, Age 20)
International bonus pool space

Not long after acquiring Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson to fix a disaster of a bullpen, the Nationals added another high leverage reliever, Brandon Kintzler. The 6' righty has been a pretty underrated reliever for the majority of his career, and his big year this year includes a 2.78 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP, though he has struck out just 27 over 45.1 innings. Hopefully, the Nationals will go with a closer-by-committee, but that seems unlikely, and it will probably be either Kintzler or Doolittle who does the closing. His 3.68 FIP and 4.08 xFIP aren't terrible, but they don't really back up his 2.78 ERA as well as you would want out of a back-end guy. Overall, I'm lukewarm on this trade (I would have preferred Brad Hand or Brad Brach for the Nationals), but now with three new relievers, the bullpen is good enough that at least it's not a liability anymore. However way you look at it, the Nationals turned a 34th round pick and some bonus pool space into two months of a very good reliever. A free agent after the season, Kintzler has a career ERA of 3.24 with a 1.25 WHIP, having struck out 196 batters and walked 70 in 280.2 innings.

Going back to Minnesota is 2015 34th round pick Tyler Watson, a 20 year old left handed pitcher who has room to grow into his 6'5" frame. He's done nothing but outperform his low draft position (though he did fall more due to signability than due to a lack of talent), reaching Class A Hagerstown last year and pitching quite well there this year. Over 18 games (17 starts), he is 6-4 with a 4.35 ERA, but he has struck out 98 and walked just 24 in 93 innings, leading to a much better 3.39 FIP. He pitches around 90 right now but with all that height, it's easy to see him adding more velocity. He's not too different from another member of the Suns rotation who was traded this year, McKenzie Mills. Watson is a long way off, but he's just 20 years old and all signs point to him trending upwards.