Showing posts with label Liam Doyle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Liam Doyle. Show all posts

Saturday, November 22, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: St. Louis Cardinals

Full list of draftees

This was an atypical draft for the Cardinals, especially on the pitching side. While St. Louis usually favors pitchability types who can mix and match hitters into falling off balance, this year it was all about power, power, power. The first two pitchers they picked both reach triple digits with their explosive fastballs, while the next three are up into the upper 90's themselves. Interestingly, the trade off is quality breaking balls, which are a bit lacking compared to the sizable pitching investment early in this draft. While they didn't take a lot of hitters early on, those they did take show advanced bats that should take to pro pitching relatively smoothly. Overall, the Cardinals brought in a lot of new talent with more draft capital than they typically have, picking in the top five for the first time since they drafted J.D. Drew out of Florida State in 1998 and also adding an extra CBB pick at #72.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-5: LHP Liam Doyle, Tennessee
Slot value: $8.13 million. Signing bonus: $7.25 million ($884,800 below slot value).
My rank: #8. MLB Pipeline: #8. Baseball America: #8.
St. Louis has a brand when it comes to college pitching, and that would be advanced, deceptive, command and control types like Brian Holiday, Quinn Mathews, Cooper Hjerpe, Brycen Mautz, Pete Hansen, Michael McGreevy, the list goes on and on. In 2025, they completely flipped the script and grabbed arguably the most electric arm in the country. A native of New Hampshire, he traveled all the way south to Coastal Carolina for his freshman season and immediately played a big role as a swingman. Transferring to Ole Miss for his sophomore season, his 6.35 ERA was not indicative of a pretty strong season under the hood, pushing him higher on draft boards. In 2025, Doyle chose to pack up and transfer once again, this time to Tennessee alongside fellow double transfer and Brewers first rounder Andrew Fischer. In Knoxville, Doyle's stuff leapt forward and he left evaluators with their jaws on the floor as he struck out eleven of the fifteen Hofstra Pride batters he faced in his first outing. Following fourteen, nine, and thirteen strikeouts against Samford, Oklahoma State, and St. Bonaventure, respectively, he brought a 0.44 ERA, a 0.54 WHIP, and a 47/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 20.1 innings through four starts, making for a ridiculous 69.1% strikeout rate (47 of 68 batters). The electric start to the season rocketed him straight into the top ten prospects of the draft, and while his results evened out a bit in SEC play, he still had loud many more loud outings and his 164 strikeouts finished second in all of NCAA Division I. Doyle's fastball is, bar none, the most electric in the country. A big bump in velocity has him sitting in the mid 90's and scraping triple digits at peak, but it plays well above its plus velocity with huge riding life that makes it look like a rocket ship out of his hand. You could argue that it's a true 80 grade fastball. His slider has improved as well and now looks like an above average bender, while his hard cutter splits the difference. Doyle has been working on his changeup and it has shown flashes, with some dropping above average grades on it on its best days. The 6'2" lefty is not the traditional tall, gangly horse you typically see at the top of the draft, with a stockier build and a high effort delivery that would typically look like it belongs more in the bullpen. Still, Doyle holds his velocity deep into starts with incredible arm strength and while his arm plunge and effort create some inconsistencies in his command, he ran a very reasonable 8.3% walk rate in 2025 (alongside an absurd 42.6% strikeout rate). The Cardinals like that Doyle's entire arsenal has taken a step forward, not just his fastball, and see him as a potential four pitch ace. Critics will point to his fastball being his only true plus pitch and the fact that he had times keeping better SEC hitters off balance as he trusted that fastball much more than his secondaries. St. Louis will want to continue to bring those secondary pitches along to make him a more complete pitcher. Doyle is a fierce competitor that often rubbed opponents the wrong way, earning a reputation around the SEC as a guy you love if he's on your team and hate if he's in the other dugout. The high energy, passionate style of play as well as the explosive fastball would fit very well in a bullpen role if he was forced into it, with the upside of a lights out closer.

2-55: OF Ryan Mitchell, Houston HS [TN]
Slot value: $1.72 million. Signing bonus: $2.25 million ($529,700 above slot value).
My rank: #56. MLB Pipeline: #55. Baseball America: #48.
With some of their savings on first rounder Liam Doyle, the Cardinals turned to a semi-local product in Ryan Mitchell, who signed for just over the value of the #44 pick rather than follow through on a Georgia Tech commitment. Mitchell grew up in the shadows of AutoZone Park, home of the Cardinals' AAA affiliate Memphis Redbirds, and attended Houston High School in the western suburb of Germantown. There he road a strong spring to significant interest as high as the back of the first round, then ultimately settled here in the second round albeit for an above slot bonus. Mitchell starts his left handed swing with a high handset and a bit of bat wrap, but whips his hands hard through the zone with an accurate, line-drive oriented stroke that has produced great results as a prep. His very strong approach and above average bat to ball ability give him a chance to be an on-base machine in St. Louis, and one who could get there a bit quicker than most prep bats given how advanced that bat is. Mitchell is hit over power, but there is some thump in his 6'2" frame and he stings the ball well. His average raw power plays down a touch in games because of his linear swing, making fringe-average power the more likely outcome, but he could threaten for 15 home runs per season at peak or perhaps 15-20 if he adds a little loft. He is an above average runner that was primarily a shortstop in high school, where his glove received mixed reviews with some seeing light feet and solid glovework and others seeing a relatively raw defensive product overall. The arm might be a bit stretched at shortstop anyways, so for me I saw him as more of a second base prospect. The Cardinals appear to be more bearish on the infield defense and drafted him as an outfielder, where his speed could help him slot nicely into center field. Overall, Mitchell is a very well-rounded profile with a standout hit tool to carry him up the ladder.

CBB-72: RHP Tanner Franklin, Tennessee
Slot value: $1.15 million. Signing bonus: $1.15 million.
My rank: #140. MLB Pipeline: #124. Baseball America: #122.
One fireballing Tennessee Volunteer was not enough, so St. Louis went back to Knoxville and found a second here in the competitive balance round. Tanner Franklin pitched two seasons at Kennesaw State where he showcased a fastball just as electric as his command was shaky, running an ugly 20.6% walk rate (40 walks) across 38.1 innings. Transferring to Tennessee for his junior year, he spent the season in the bullpen and focused on attacking the middle of the strike zone, slashing his walk rate all the way to an excellent 5.5%. The fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and has topped 101, just chewing up bats with riding life and flat plane from a low slot. If Liam Doyle's fastball looks like a rocket ship, Franklin's looks like it accelerates towards the plate and zips past the hitter before he can blink. Like Doyle, his fastball steals the show while his secondaries take more of a back seat. He can cut his fastball around 90, or he can turn it over into a truer slider in the mid 80's, but both pitches are fringy and lack the bat missing bite to induce whiffs in the big leagues. Additionally, Franklin's dramatically lower walk rate in 2025 came because he attacked the zone much more aggressively, not because he suddenly learned how to paint the corners. While 100 down the middle will zip by bats in college, even in the SEC, he won't be as consistently successful in pro ball unless he can locate a little better, especially considering the lack of an offspeed weapon to keep hitters off the fastball. That said, the arm talent is electric and the fastball is approaching 80 grade when he locates it up in the zone. The 6'5" righty has pitched almost exclusively in relief during his three years in college, and while that's likely to be his role going forward as well, it's not out of the question that St. Louis could run him out as a starter for a little while to see what happens. He certainly looks durable enough to pull it off, though of course he'll need to find a more consistent breaking ball and develop a changeup. The most likely projection is that of a flame throwing reliever who gets just enough out of his secondary stuff to keep hitters off his elite fastball.

3-89: 1B Jack Gurevitch, San Diego
Slot value: $879,000. Signing bonus: $879,000.
My rank: #141. MLB Pipeline: #144. Baseball America: #90.
The Cardinals believe they found one of the best sticks on the West Coast in Jack Gurevitch, a name other teams may have passed over as a mid major first baseman. Gurevitch has played three years at San Diego, alma mater of Kris Bryant, where he evolved from somewhat of a light hitting freshman (.265/.387/.457, 6 HR) to a middle of the order sophomore (.324/.444/.507, 9 HR) to a first team all-WCC selection as a junior (.371/.479/.677, 17 HR) to land himself here in the third round. He has really filled out his 6' frame and now shows easy plus power in batting practice, power he has begun tapping much more in games as he has become adept at pulling the ball in the air. You could argue that it was the most usable game power in the state of California available in this year's draft. Meanwhile, the Southern California native shows a solid average hit tool, running reasonable strikeout rates while taking his walks and adjusting late in counts to find a way on base. There is a fair amount of swing and miss when he tries to turn on the ball, though he showed very well last summer in the elite Cape Cod League (.278/.375/.411) when he focused more on getting on base. The upside here is that of a 20-25 home run hitter with reasonable on-base percentages, though probably more likely in a platoon or bench role. Gurevitch is limited to first base defensively and will therefore have a ton of pressure on his bat, though swinging left handed does help. He could move relatively quickly if he manages to stay un-blocked at his only position.

4-120: LHP Cade Crossland, Oklahoma
Slot value: $629,500. Signing bonus: $729,500 ($100,000 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #207. Baseball America: #173.
Cade Crossland brings the Cardinals yet another power arm, though he has a bit more of a balanced profile than the two arms above him. He began his career at Ouachita Baptist in Southwest Arkansas, but struggled to a 7.30 ERA as he walked 16.6% of his opponents. Transferring to Weatherford JC closer to home, he took a huge step forward and dropped his ERA to 2.37, but still ran an ugly 14.2% walk rate. Oklahoma liked his big stuff and brought him up north to Norman, where his ERA jumped back up to 6.02 but his walk rate continued to creep down to a more respectable 10.6%. Crossland works with a fastball that can creep into the upper 90's, but usually sits more in the low 90's with run and ride. He gets nice depth on his sweeping slider, but it lacks bite and can break early at times, giving hitters a good look at it and failing to miss a ton of bats. The true weapon here is his changeup. It's a plus-plus cambio that looks like a fastball for 55 feet before falling off the table at the last second, diving hard down and to the arm side. He can throw it in any count, double up on it, whatever he needs to get outs. With the gains he has made in his command moving from well below average to simply fringy, Crossland has a chance to work his way up as a back-end starter if he can bring the breaking ball along. The 6'2" lefty has been durable in his three years in college and doesn't throw with a ton of effort, helping aid those starter projections. If the breaking ball remains fringy, he may be forced into a fastball/changeup relief role where the heater could more comfortably sit mid 90's and approach triple digits at peak.

5-150: RHP Ethan Young, East Carolina
Slot value: $470,100. Signing bonus: $630,000 ($159,900 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #355.
Following Cade Crossland's over-slot bonus in the fourth round, Ethan Young signed for roughly the slot value of Crossland's #120 pick here in the fifth round. Young has followed a very similar career path to Crossland as well. He began his career at Hillsborough JC in Florida where command kept him from having much of an impact, but transferred to Catawba Valley JC closer to home in North Carolina for his sophomore year where he became a shutdown closer. Transferring again to ECU for his junior year, he worked as a long reliever for the Pirates and was largely successful, highlighted by gems against William & Mary (4.1 IP, 1 ER, 0 BB, 10 K) and Wichita State (5.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 K). Young, like the arms before him in this Cardinals draft class, has a power fastball that sits mid 90's in short stints and has grabbed as high as 99 on the gun. The pitch comes in with hard run and sink, making it difficult to square up especially in this day and age where pitchers are favoring the flat riding fastball. He complements the fastball with a power sweeper in the mid to upper 80's, missing plenty of bats with its late life and making for a very difficult at bat. His curveball and changeup round out the arsenal but neither are true weapons at this point. Consistency has been the main bugaboo for the Charlotte-area product, as he can look downright dominant on his best days but has others where he struggles to find the strike zone. Combine that command with what is primarily a two-pitch arsenal and you have significant reliever risk. However, the Cardinals made a significant investment in Young with the belief that his athleticism, simple delivery, and two potential plus pitches could lay the groundwork for a long term rotation career if he just gets incremental steps forward in the other parts of his game. He's plenty filled out at 6'2", 220 pounds and certainly looks the part of a big league starter if he gets to that point. If not, a power fastball/slider combination is always good to have in relief and Young's combo is better than most.

7-210: RHP Payton Graham, Gonzaga
Slot value: $280,800. Signing bonus: $280,800.
My rank: #173. MLB Pipeline: #211. Baseball America: #254.
Not to be confused with Tigers prospect and former Oklahoma star Peyton Graham, Payton Graham has a chance to really outplay his draft position if he can get healthy, as he doesn't have much to go on in terms of track record. Over his first two years at Gonzaga, he went just 1-8 with an abysmal 10.14 ERA and perhaps an equally ugly 2.14 WHIP. However, he came out in fall practice in 2024 looking like a transformed pitcher, then had scouts buzzing by dominating UC Davis (5 IP, 0 ER, 7 K) in his spring debut in 2025. Unfortunately, that was all the scouts got to see as he hurt his elbow and went down with Tommy John surgery, wiping out his 2025 season and likely limiting him into next spring as well. At his best, Graham throws a low to mid 90's fastball that reached 98 in the fall, coming in with great riding life as well. His two-plane slider and truer curveball have taken steps forward and give him a pair of swing and miss breaking balls, both flashing plus at their best but neither proving consistent enough yet to earn that grade overall. He adds a changeup, but presently his feel for spin stands out much more than his feel for the changeup. Graham has some effort in his delivery with a long arm circle and other exaggerated actions, making for fringy command that probably won't be helped by the surgery recovery at least in the short run. However, St. Louis believes in the stuff and can see him picking up right where he left off when he gets back on the mound in 2026, bringing that four pitch mix and sturdy 6'2" frame toward a big league rotation future. He'll need to bring his changeup along and shore up the command, but based on what he showed when he was healthy, he probably had the most complete starting pitching profile in this Cardinals class outside first rounder Liam Doyle. Graham had been getting second round looks when healthy and the Cardinals hope to get him back to that level again.

11-330: SS Jalin Flores, Texas
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $175,000 ($25,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #235. Baseball America: #255.
Jalin Flores is well known to Central Texas area scouts. He was a highly touted prep prospect in the San Antonio suburbs, earning top three rounds interest before pricing himself out so he could attend Texas. He struggled as a freshman, but turned around a huge draft-eligible sophomore campaign in which he slashed .340/.408/.656 with 18 home runs in 60 games and pushed himself back into that third to fourth round conversation. However, concerns about his approach at the plate suppressed his market a bit, and again he priced himself out of the draft to head back to Austin. He started off hot in 2025 and was hitting .318 into late March, but slumped in the second half of the season and wound up at just .239/.317/.491 with 13 home runs in 58 games. Flores has a big league body 6'2", 210 pounds with long arms and legs built to do damage. He takes big hacks in the box to produce above average raw power, showing the ability to put the ball out to all fields when he's on time and projecting to continue to hit for power with wood bats. He has very solid bat to ball as well when he picks the pitch up out of the hand, but his bugaboo has been a combination of poor pitch recognition and a high proclivity to chase out of the strike zone. SEC pitchers have begun to adjust to that and have gotten Flores out in front of the ball more often than he'd like, and after many years on the prospect radar and his 22nd birthday passing shortly after the draft, there are real questions whether he'll ever get that approach to a place it needs to be. Fortunately, his power, bat to ball, and defense buy that approach time to catch up. While he's not much of a runner, he nonetheless plays a very solid shortstop with a plus arm to make throws in the hole and on the run. A springier defender, such as fellow Texan Masyn Winn up at the big league level, could force him over to third base, but either way Flores should stick on the left side of the infield and provide value there. The upside is that of a 15-20 homer bat that may lack in the on-base percentage department but plays good defense on the dirt to hold down a platoon spot.

14-420: RHP Anthony Watts, Iowa
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
St. Louis stayed relatively close to home in the fourteenth round, grabbing Anthony Watts out of Iowa. After graduating from Waukee Northwest High School in the western Des Moines suburbs, Watts began his career at Creighton where he took on a substantial role as a freshman. Transferring back into his homes state to play for the Hawkeyes, he spent two seasons as a reliever with strong results. Watts throws a low 90's fastball that plays up with riding action from a release that brings plenty of extension, putting some extra hop on the pitch. He has a sharp slider in the mid 80's, then has a fairly firm upper 80's changeup that he uses less often. The 6'4" righty has a durable, projectable frame that figures to keep him healthy and help him add a bit more velocity, which will play up due to his release characteristics. The command is fringy but workable, and between the fastball and slider he has two big league pitches to help him navigate lineups in the pro, hopefully working his way up as a middle reliever.

20-600: C Chase Heath, Central Missouri
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $5,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
At first glance, a $5K senior sign in the final round might look like a pick destined to wind up an org depth glove-first glorified bullpen catcher, but Chase Heath has a real shot to outplay that projection. Not only that, but he gets to do it for his hometown team. Heath grew up in O'Fallon, an outer suburb about thirty miles northwest of St. Louis, and attended nearby Veritas Christian High School. He spent four years at Central Missouri, where he was a backup catcher for the first two seasons before taking on a larger role in 2024 and 2025, combining to slash .373/.452/.705 with 25 home runs in 92 games over those final two seasons. He then impressed in the MLB Draft League before the 2025 draft, where he slashed .310/.423/.500 with a pair of home runs and nearly as many walks (6) as strikeouts (7) in fourteen games. Listed at 5'10", 200 pounds, Heath is built like and plays like a traditional catcher. He has received consistent praise for his glove, earning an array of defense-related honors during his time in Warrensburg as a seasoned receiver who will no doubt be a boon for young pitchers in the St. Louis organization looking to hone their craft. While defense and pitching development is the primary role for a player with this profile and draft position, Heath has a sneaky bat as well. He struck out just 27 times over his final two seasons in Warrensburg, good for a minuscule 7.1% strikeout rate, owing to an excellent approach that played up during his time in the MLB Draft League. Heath works counts and forces pitchers to come into his wheelhouse, where his strong pitch recognition and hand-eye coordination gives him a good chance to make the jump and hit pro pitching. While he hit 25 home runs over those past two seasons, he typically keeps things simple with a line drive approach and now in pro ball, that power will probably mostly play on ambush swings lifting the ball to the pull side. It's likely a glove-first backup catcher projection but he is already off to a strong start to his pro career.

Thursday, July 3, 2025

2025 MLB Draft: Evaluating the Nationals' Options at the Top

The 2025 MLB Draft is upon us, and for the first time since 2010, the Nationals possess the first overall pick. It appears that two frontrunners have emerged – Oklahoma high school shortstop Ethan Holliday and LSU lefty Kade Anderson – but nothing is ever certain in the draft. By my count, without having inside information, there are likely about five other names the Nationals are likely considering at the top. It's a class without a clear top prospect, as none of the draft's biggest names has done enough to separate himself this spring and every prospect comes with some sort of blemish, however small. We'll explore the seven options below.

SS Ethan Holliday, Stillwater HS [OK]
Throughout the draft process, Ethan Holliday has been one of if not the most famous name in the class, and certainly so on the high school side. The son of former All Star Matt Holliday and brother of 2022 first overall pick and current Orioles second baseman Jackson Holliday, Ethan is a frontrunner to join his brother at the top. While his 2024 was more good than great, causing him to slip closer to the middle of the top ten prospects, he reasserted himself at the top with a strong spring blasting home runs left and right against Oklahoma high school pitching. Holliday stands out first and foremost for his power, easily plus from an ultra physical 6'4" frame reminiscent of his father. He's also a disciplined hitter with plenty of experience against top arms, though there is just enough swing and miss inside the strike zone to give some evaluators pause. Given the prodigious left handed power and a glove that will be enough to stick on the left side of the infield, likely at third base, it's clear that the Nationals aren't too concerned. He may not fly through the minors as quickly as his brother but he figures to be a star in the not-too-distant future. Brady House is at the beginning of his journey to establish himself as the team's long term answer at third base, but that's no reason to shy away from Holliday. One major factor here may be cost, as he does figure to be one of the most expensive players on the board with an Oklahoma State commitment in hand, where his uncle Josh is the head coach.

LHP Kade Anderson, Louisiana State
While Holliday has been in 1-1 discussions for years, Kade Anderson has only pushed his way into the middle of the conversation very recently. He may not be the best at any individual thing, steady performance capped with a complete game shutout in the College World Series Finals have proven that the sum of the parts rival any pitcher in the class. Listed at 6'2", 185 pounds, he's not small but still isn't the most physical arm in the class. Instead of reaching back for 100, he is content sitting in the low 90's with riding action from an otherwise normal fastball profile. His curveball has tremendous snap and keeps hitters off balance to say the least, while his newer cutter/slider has worked extremely well in addition. Anderson's changeup has also taken a step forward, giving him a full four pitch arsenal which he has great feel for. The command is also above average, which when combined with strong feel for pitching and ability to execute gives him the look of a frontline starter. With a classic starting pitching profile and a track record of performance in the SEC, Anderson is *exactly* how you would draw it up when looking for Mike Rizzo's dream pitcher at the top of the draft. He has been compared to unassuming but quietly dominant lefty aces like Cole Hamels and Max Fried. He is every bit as likely as Holliday to be the Nationals' pick at the top of the draft.

SS Eli Willits, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS [OK]
Ironically, Ethan Holliday isn't the only son of a Major Leaguer, small town Oklahoma high school shortstop on the Nats' radar for their first pick. While Holliday and Anderson are the frontrunners, Eli Willits may represent the next most likely pick and was actually invited to Nationals Park for a pre-draft workout. While not quite as tooled up as his Stillwater counterpart, Willits represents a more balanced profile that leaves scouts unable to find holes. As you'd expect from the son of Reggie Willits, he brings a high baseball IQ to the field despite being one of the youngest players in the class. Willits is a switch hitter with an approach at the plate well beyond his years, boasting a long track record of showcase performance under his belt and little fear of older pitching. Standing 6'1", he has some power but doesn't project to be a slugger, with 15-20 home runs per season looking more likely alongside high on-base percentages. It's a similar story at shortstop, where he is a sound defender and figures to stick until a twitcher, more explosive defender pushes him to third base. His Oklahoma commitment (where he would play for his father) figures to make him an expensive sign, but likely a bit cheaper than Holliday.

RHP Seth Hernandez, Corona HS [CA]
Seth Hernandez is right there with Willits in terms of the top non-Holliday or Anderson frontrunners. No high school right handed pitcher has ever been the first overall pick, but Hernandez is no ordinary high school righty and the Nationals do seem to have some interest. Simply put, he's how you draw it up. Standing 6'4", he's an athletic specimen who could be an early draft pick as a shortstop if he wasn't such a good pitcher. The fastball has hit 100 several times and comfortably sits in the mid to upper 90's, already giving him the look of a big league pitcher. His feel for spin was previously a bit of a knock against him, but he's sharpened up his breaking balls this spring and now looks to have a plus curveball and above average slider. The changeup has always been a weapon, giving him a full arsenal of big league pitches. While the command isn't pinpoint, Hernandez repeats his delivery well and hits his spots better than most high school arms, especially those with stuff as loud as his. High school pitchers, especially right handers, are among the riskiest picks you can make, but the Southern California product checks just about every box and will require much less development than most. He's committed to Vanderbilt and also figures to be expensive, but it seems that many of the teams picking immediately behind the Nationals are focused elsewhere and their main competition could come from teams picking outside the top five.

LHP Liam Doyle, Tennessee
If the Nationals go college pitcher, Kade Anderson is the clear frontrunner. However, Liam Doyle has arguably the loudest fastball in the country and I'm sure Mike Rizzo has checked in. The Angels, picking second, appear to be very interested and many mock drafts have him landing in Los Angeles. Doyle, a New Hampshire native, began his career at Coastal Carolina, transferred to Ole Miss for his sophomore year, then bounced to Tennessee as a junior this year. The fastball really ticked up and he wound up with one of the most eye popping seasons in the country, striking out a whopping 42.6% of his opponents on the way to an NCAA-second best 164 strikeouts, behind only Anderson's 180. The fastball steals the show in the mid 90's, peaking a 99, with explosive life through the zone that keeps hitters coming up empty even when they know it's coming. He has a traditional slider as well as more of a cutter, both above average pitches that will keep pro hitters off his fastball. While he doesn't use it as much, his splitter looks like it could be another solid pitch as he gains feel. While Anderson and Doyle both stand 6'2", Anderson is more of a string bean while Doyle brings a stockier build. He's not a great athlete and throws with some effort, creating some reliever risk, but pounded the zone with a solid 8.3% walk rate this year and held his velocity deep into starts. He could rocket to Nationals Park even though his edges are a littler rougher than Anderson's.

LHP Jamie Arnold, Florida State
A couple months ago, Jamie Arnold may have actually been a frontrunner for this spot alongside Ethan Holliday, but his star has faded just enough to push him closer to the back half of the top ten picks. Still, this is a loud profile and one the Nationals surely have watched closely all spring. Many a sidearming left hander has been compared to Chris Sale, and Arnold fits the bill. His low to mid 90's fastball reaches 97 at peak and runs hard to the arm side from his ultra low slot. The slider dives across the plate in the opposite direction, off the bat giving him two easy plus pitches that could get big league hitters out today. To reach his ceiling as a front of the rotation starter, he'll need to continue getting comfortable with his changeup, which is making progress but isn't quite at the level of consistency of his primary two pitches. Unlike most lefties with explosive stuff, the Tampa native also commands his arsenal very well, running a very solid 7.7% walk rate in 2025 and giving him a very well rounded profile. While he wasn't quite as electric down the stretch as some of the other college pitchers at the top of this class, his combination of stuff, deception, command, and handedness is hard to find. Arnold would likely be a bit cheaper than some of the names above him here and would enable the Nationals to spend big on a later pick.

SS Aiva Arquette, Oregon State
Aiva Arquette is more or less the consensus top college hitting prospect in the class, with significant heat linking him to the Mariners at #3 or potentially even the Angels at #2. However, after drafting fellow college infielder Seaver King with their first pick last year, the Nationals do appear to be looking elsewhere for their pick at #1. Still, for an organization that has really, really struggled to develop bats, we shouldn't look past the possibility of Washington getting something relatively big league ready in that department. Arquette had a fantastic year at Oregon State and looks the part of a well-rounded prospect with few holes and plenty of upside. Standing 6'4", he has plus power and got to it consistently in 2025 as he showed the ability to elevate with authority. The hit tool is probably closer to average than plus, as he showed some in-zone swing and miss and can chase occasionally, but there is nothing glaring in that department and he still got on base at a .461 clip this year (and a nice .357 looking back to the Cape Cod League in 2024). He's big for a shortstop, but has impressed scouts with his actions there this spring and figures to stick at least at the outset of his career. If not, he'd be a well above average third baseman. In all, this profile is not too dissimilar to a right handed Ethan Holliday, with a bit better defense and a slightly less polished approach relative to his age group. Like Arnold and potentially Doyle or Willits, he could be a bit cheaper and save the Nationals some money for later rounds.

Dark Horse Candidates
At this point, I have a hard time seeing the Nationals selecting a player not listed above. That said, there are a few that have likely at least been brought up in draft room conversations in Washington and could conceivably fit the bill. Shortstop Billy Carlson, a teammate of Seth Hernandez at Corona High School, is a strong athlete with an elite glove. He has grown into more and more impact as he's matured, though he might be more of a .260 hitter than a .300 hitter at maturity. There are some parallels to Masyn Winn here and he likely finds himself closer to the back of the top ten picks. Right hander Kyson Witherspoon had a fantastic season at Oklahoma, running his fastball up to 99 while showing real feel for spin and keeping the walks way down. The Nationals likely feel that they can get similar upside in a left handed package, and Witherspoon may fall out of the top ten picks. Auburn's Ike Irish has been pushing his way up boards as of late, showing arguably the most potent bat in all of college baseball. It's very real power combined with strong bat to ball that makes him a virtual lock to hit at a high level in the big leagues. However, as a part time catcher who may fit better in an outfield corner, he doesn't fit the up-the-middle profile the Nationals and most teams seek at the top of the draft. Shortstop JoJo Parker has been another buzzy name late in the process, wowing scouts in Southern Mississippi with one of the most complete offensive profiles in the country. He's physical, shows above average power, and hits everything thrown at him. Like Ethan Holliday, he may slide to third base, but the bat is for real. He may not get out of the top ten picks. Lastly, this would probably be the biggest stretch in this dark horse section but UC Santa Barbara righty Tyler Bremner has quietly re-emerged as a premium pitching prospect. A 1-1 candidate before the season, he slipped back towards the middle of the first round as his stuff looked more ordinary, but he got hot down the stretch and is back to looking like himself. It's plenty of fastball up to 98 while his changeup might be the best cambio in the class. Bremner's slider isn't quite the wipeout pitch you look for at the top of the draft, but he makes up for it with above average command and a solid pitcher's frame. It's a traditional profile that fits the Mike Rizzo mold, though he likely fits just outside the top ten picks.