Showing posts with label Mike Boeve. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mike Boeve. Show all posts

Monday, August 21, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Milwaukee Brewers

Full list of draftees

The Brewers played the bonus pool game to perhaps a more extreme extent than any other team. They went way below slot for their first three picks at #18, #33, and #54, giving them closer to the slot values for the #25, #43, and and #63 picks, respectively, saving over $1.7 million in the process. Sandwiched around a couple more below slot bonuses in the fourth and fifth rounds, Milwaukee dumped went about a million dollars above slot, each, on Eric Bitonti and Cooper Pratt, giving them closer to the slot values for the #49 and #60 picks, respectively, at #87 and #182. From there, they saved another $600,000+ in rounds 7-10, then took a unique approach to day three with seven high schoolers and a JuCo arm, reeling in all but three of them with another $1.3 million in above slot bonuses. Still with us? Looking back after the dust settled, I'm actually pretty impressed by the class they pulled together. Milwaukee looked for bats early and I really like the bats they did grab, then pivoted to pitchers later in the hopes that some of their high school arms could be sleepers ready to break out with pro instruction. I'm very interested to see what this unique strategy nets them.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-18: 3B Brock Wilken, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $4.02 million. Signing bonus: $3.15 million ($871,400 below slot value).
My rank: #22. MLB Pipeline: #25. Baseball America: #23. Prospects Live: #27.
The Brewers started off this draft with a bang, grabbing one of the best power hitters in the country and saving nearly $900,000 in the process. Brock Wilken has been a sensation ever since he stepped foot on campus at Wake Forest, blasting 17 home runs as a true freshman and in all taking just three seasons to set the all time ACC home run record at 71. Between seasons, he was a menace in the Cape Cod League, slashing .271/.400/.471 over 73 career games with wood bats against elite pitching, and in 2023 had his best year yet slashing .345/.506/.807 with 31 home runs and a 58/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games. Yes, he was playing in a hitter-friendly home park at a time when offense was up across college baseball, but the point remains – Brock Wilken can hit. He's a hulking, 6'4", 225 pound slugger that could continue to get stronger, showing off plus-plus raw power that plays to all fields even when he doesn't square it up. It's some of the most natural juice in the class, which could help him hit 40 home runs a year in the majors. Wilken is also a very patient hitter that grinds out his at bats, rarely chasing and doing well to spoil pitches he doesn't like. He mashes velocity but if there's one drawback to the offensive profile, it's that he can get into trouble with breaking balls in some of those deeper counts especially with breaking balls because his bat to ball skills are just average. Fortunately, with his power all he needs is to get most, not even all, of his barrel onto the ball and he can send it a long way. Even though strikeout questions do persist, he dropped his strikeout rate from 24.2% as a sophomore to 18.1% as a junior largely on the back of that disciplined approach. In the field, the Tampa-area native shows off a cannon right arm that will help him stick at third base in the short run, though he's a well below average runner with stiffer actions that may end up at first base in the long run. Still, he has plenty of bat to profile there. Wilken has a chance to hit in the middle of the Brewers' order for a long time. He's already off to a hot start in the minors, slashing .301/.458/.479 with a pair of home runs and a 22/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games between the Arizona Complex League and High A Wisconsin.

CBA-33: RHP Josh Knoth, Patchogue-Medford HS [NY] {video}
Slot value: $2.54 million. Signing bonus: $2 million ($543,800 below slot value).
My rank: #45. MLB Pipeline: #98. Baseball America: #41. Prospects Live: #47.
After saving nearly $900,000 on Brock Wilken, the Brewers saved another half a million dollars on Josh Knoth by giving him roughly the slot value for the 43rd pick here at #33, signing him away from an Ole Miss commitment in the process. Knoth shot up boards this spring with an exceptional run through his Long Island competition, showing improved stuff, strike throwing, and mechanics. He sits in the low 90's but now touches 98 with his fastball, a pitch which plays up further due to its riding life from a somewhat low release. His breaking balls have really come into their own this spring. The curveball, his more established weapon, has gotten more consistent with nasty two plane bite, while his newer slider has been more effectively incorporated into the arsenal and in all his innate ability to rip through a breaking ball is ahead of most of the class. Knoth's changeup is a distant fourth pitch, so that will be next up for him in his development. The 6'1" righty isn't the most physical, especially not standing next to Brock Wilken, but he has smoothed out his delivery a bit this spring as he has maintained his balance better through his long trunk rotation, leading to more strikes. You can slap an average grade on the command with a chance for better as he continues to get accustomed to his nasty arsenal, and his extreme youth (he didn't turn 18 until a month after the draft) further improves the profile. Knoth has a chance to be a legitimate #2 starter if he can take the next step with his changeup and maintain his command, with a profile led by plenty of velocity and a couple of plus breaking balls.

2-54: 3B Mike Boeve, Nebraska-Omaha {video}
Slot value: $1.55 million. Signing bonus: $1.25 million ($296,100 below slot value).
My rank: #65. MLB Pipeline: #81. Baseball America: #61. Prospects Live: #84.
This is a fun profile for the Brewers, and it saves them nearly another $300,000 in the process. Hailing from the small town of Hastings in central Nebraska, he played his college ball at Nebraska-Omaha in the Summit League and has therefore never really been in the spotlight. However, he improved all three seasons at UNO and put together an exceptional 2023, slashing .401/.512/.563 with four home runs and a 9/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 47 games. Simply put, Boeve was on another level compared to his peers. He utilized an exceptionally disciplined approach and elite bat to ball skills to strike out just 4.3% of the time and run a 90% contact rate, rarely chasing in the process and controlling the strike zone as well as anybody in the country. If you want to think of it as a product of average competition in the Summit League, he also slashed .278/.403/.339 in the elite Cape Cod League and ran a respectable 17.3% strikeout rate there too while walking at an excellent 15.8% clip. Boeve is not overly physical at 6'2",  but he has some sneaky power when he turns on the ball and has a tendency to spray hard ground balls and line drives around the field. The swing is certainly more geared for contact, prioritizing the ability to manipulate the barrel to meet the ball all over the zone and adjust to offspeed stuff. If the Brewers decide to change his game up a little, he does hit the ball hard enough to profile for fringe-average power, perhaps 12-15 home runs per season to go with his high on-base percentages. The defensive profile is more ordinary, as he has some arm strength and some range but not enough to shine on the infield. He'd make an adequate second or third baseman, which might stretch his range or arm a little bit, respectively. Boeve has hit the ground running in pro ball, slashing .370/.435/.630 with five home runs and a 14/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 20 games between the Arizona Complex League and High A Wisconsin.

3-87: SS Eric Bitonti, Aquinas HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $796,200. Signing bonus: $1.75 million ($953,800 above slot value).
My rank: #38. MLB Pipeline: #68. Baseball America: #59. Prospects Live: #57.
After saving on their first three picks, the Brewers began to unload those savings in a big way with Eric Bitonti, who signed for nearly a million dollars above slot value to drop an Oregon commitment. I'm a huge Bitonti fan, and I think he has a chance to be a really special player if things break right. Tall and athletic at 6'4", he has plenty of lean strength for now and projects to pack on plenty more as he develops. He does not get cheated at the plate, taking big, uppercut hacks from the left side that produce plus raw power right now and could get to plus-plus as he gets stronger. Right there, you already have something cooking. The overall polish in the box is a bit behind, as his barrel can get too steep at times when he's swinging for the fences and it's not all that accurate yet, either. On the bright side, he won't turn 18 until the offseason and is therefore one of the youngest players taken in the entire draft, which to me gives additional confidence that he'll make the adjustments he needs to make to acclimate to professional baseball. Defensively, his length and athleticism give him the a nice foundation at shortstop, but he'll likely move to third base as he fills out where his average speed and explosiveness will fit better. His plus arm will keep him on the left side of the infield. Overall, Bitonti is a bit rough around the edges and has not been quite as consistent as some scouts would like to see, but the upside is tremendous as a potential middle of the order threat that sticks on the infield. As expected, it's taking him a minute to acclimate to pro ball, slashing .179/.333/.410 with two home runs and a 15/9 strikeout to walk ratio through a dozen games in the Arizona Complex League.

4-119: RHP Jason Woodward, Florida Gulf Coast {video}
Slot value: $557,900. Signing bonus: $247,500 ($310,400 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
Jason Woodward went unranked on every public board I've seen, so this is certainly a bit of a surprise pick even if he signed for less than half of slot value. Woodward has been a three year contributor at Florida Gulf Coast and was off to a hot start in 2023, dominating Hofstra and UMass Lowell to the tune of a combined eleven shutout innings with fifteen strikeouts. However, he left his third start of the season early against Florida State and eventually had Tommy John surgery, so the Brewers clearly liked what they saw in February. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and I saw one video of a nice breaking ball, but otherwise there is not much information or video out there on his stuff. In the video of one pitch that I saw, he doesn't throw with a ton of effort and should be able to provide at least average command going forward, which is an extra boon with his high velocity. At 6'1", he still has some projection remaining and he's very young for the class, only turning 21 shortly before the draft. The Florida native did get some exposure in the Cape Cod League last summer, and even though his 8.10 ERA was a little ugly, he controlled the zone nicely and put up a 24/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings. It's likely that additional development of his secondaries will do him well to miss barrels against more advanced hitters. Woodward has beaten bone cancer twice, which is amazing for so many more important reasons off the field but also shows his fortitude to overcome adversity in professional baseball settings going forward.

5-155: RHP Ryan Birchard, Niagara County JC [NY] {video}
Slot value: $392,700. Signing bonus: $322,500 ($70,200 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #227.
The Brewers continued to save money with Ryan Birchard, a late-rising JuCo arm out of Upstate New York with a fun profile. After putting up two dominant seasons for Niagara County JC, where he produced a 1.43 ERA and a 171/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.1 combined innings, he really opened eyes in the MLB Draft League on the back of nine innings of one run ball, with sixteen strikeouts to just three baserunners over four appearances. Birchard is a power arm that sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, touching 98 in short stints with cut and ride. It's a plus pitch that carries the arsenal for now. His curveball shows plenty of bite and looks above average at its best, though he doesn't always get on top of it and it could use another tick or two of power. He's begun using a sweepier slider later in the season and it's quickly looking like another weapon for him, and at this point his changeup is a distant fourth pitch. The 6' righty has a bit of a stiff delivery that features effort and leads to fringy command, so that fact combined with his lack of a quality changeup and the tendency for his velocity to dip later in starts likely points him to the bullpen. He's also very young for a college sophomore and only turned 20 shortly before the draft, giving him plenty of time to clean up the rougher edges of his profile. Previously committed to UConn, he'll instead have a chance to work his way up as a power armed reliever. 

6-182: SS Cooper Pratt, Magnolia Heights HS [MS] {video}
Slot value: $309,900. Signing bonus: $1.35 million ($1.04 million above slot value).
My rank: #47. MLB Pipeline: #45. Baseball America: #63. Prospects Live: #50.
There were rumors that Cooper Pratt was going to be a very tough sign away from a hometown Ole Miss commitment, and after he lasted into the middle of day two, it appeared that was the reality. However, the Brewers used their massive savings to this point on the draft to go over a million dollars above slot value to swoop in and sign him away, ironically giving him even a little bit less than he might have been expected to get in his projected second round range. In doing so, Milwaukee gets a stud here in the sixth round. Pratt is a long bodied, 6'4" shortstop that has earned comps to Gunnar Henderson from area scouts in the Deep South, though he's not quite at that level. He's an extremely selective hitter with one of the more polished approaches in the high school class, which should enable him to transition pretty smoothly from his northern Mississippi high school competition to pro ball. His big frame and long limbs give him great leverage in his right handed swing, which gives him average power for now but promises to provide at least above average power in the future as he fills out. Pratt does have some length in his swing and his pitch selection is ahead of his pure bat to ball skills, so there can be some swing and miss in the zone especially against well spotted breaking balls and high fastballs, the usual culprits. Overall, it's a very well-rounded offensive profile for a kid his age that could produce 20+ home runs annually with high on-base percentages at peak. An average runner, he may not have the range for shortstop but he does have the arm, with the ability to get plenty of carry on his throws even from a shorter arm stroke that enables him to get rid of the ball quickly. If he can retain his first step quickness, those supplemental tools could help him stick rather than move over to third, where he would be an above average defender. Pratt is a little bit old for the class, having turned 19 shortly before this article was published, a break from the Brewers' trend in this class. He's already swinging a hot bat down in the Arizona Complex League, slashing .356/.426/.444 with an 11/5 strikeout to walk ratio through a dozen games.

11-332: RHP Bishop Letson, Floyd Central HS [IN] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $482,600 ($332,600 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #179. Baseball America: #204. Prospects Live: #105.
The Brewers entered day three with plenty of unspent bonus pool money, so they made Bishop Letson the first of five over slot high school signings in the last ten rounds by giving him late fourth round money to sign away from a Purdue commitment. Letson is all about projection at this point. Previously sitting in the upper 80's, he came out with a low 90's fastball at the PBR Super 60 in February (video link) and regularly reached that velocity this spring, though he can dip back below 90 later in starts. The pitch has running life on it and figures to continue to add velocity. He spins a short, tight slider with both sweeping and diving action, and it has gotten more consistent this spring as he's gotten more comfortable with it. There's a changeup, too, which has taken a step forward. While it's not a particularly loud arsenal at present, he's extremely skinny at 6'4" with a ton of room to add good weight and the Brewers are jumping in early. The Louisville-area native has a reasonably smooth delivery and throws plenty of strikes, having performed very well against southern Indiana high school competition this spring and possessing all the building blocks for a #3 or #4 starter.

12-362: LHP Bjorn Johnson, Lincoln HS [WA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $420,500 ($270,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #248. Prospects Live: #406.
Milwaukee's next over slot bonus went to Bjorn Johnson, who picked up fifth round money to sign away from an Auburn commitment. He's another guy without loud "now" stuff that the Brewers will hope to bring along as an impact starter. He has an upper 80's fastball that gets up to around 92 at best, with running life from a lower slot. The breaking ball is fringy to this point and needs work, while his changeup gets nice fade and plays well off his fastball due to his arm slot. Johnson's delivery features heavy pelvic rotation that turns his arm into a bit of a whip, sometimes affecting his release point and his command. The Seattle native likely projects as a reliever but given the money Milwaukee gave him, they're likely interested in his potential to start long term.

14-422: RHP Hayden Robinson, Berwick HS [LA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $347,500 ($197,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
One of the more off-the-radar picks out of the high school class this year, Hayden Robinson comes from the small Atchafalaya River town of Berwick in deep southern Louisiana. Originally committed to Nicholls State just up the road in Thibodaux, he instead signed for early sixth round money to join the Brewers' system. Robinson is a smaller kid at a skinny six feet tall, currently sitting in the upper 80's with his fastball and touching 91 with riding action from a low release point. He can really spin a breaking ball, getting nice two-plane bite on his high spin slider, and shows feel for a changeup. Robinson does pitch with some effort, rocking back and forth throughout his delivery, and overall he'll need to find another gear to stick in the rotation. The Brewers are buying his athletic frame and ability to spin the breaking ball, hoping that velocity will come as he gets stronger even if he's not the tallest kid in the world. It's a fairly unique profile that makes for an interesting follow at the very least.

20-602: LHP Justin Chambers, Basha HS [AZ] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $547,500 ($397,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
The Brewers' final over slot pick was their largest of day three, handing Justin Chambers fourth round money here in the twentieth round to steer away from a Washington State commitment. Like Hayden Robinson, he's way off the radar and did not rank on any major lists, but the Brewers are clearly convicted here. He sits in the upper 80's and tops out around 92, with a fairly low launch and some carry on the pitch. His sweeping slider is ahead of his big, slow curveball, though both are inconsistent and require further refinement. Right now, I'd argue his best pitch is his changeup, with great fading action and plenty of feel to locate it, unlike many other high high schoolers. The 6'2" lefty has a bit of a stiff delivery at times but for the most part pounds the strike zone with authority. If Milwaukee can help him tack on some velocity and develop the offspeed stuff, Chambers looks like a potential #4 starter. The fact that he's extremely young for the class, turning 18 a month after the draft, also helps.

Tuesday, December 13, 2022

2023 MLB Draft: an early look at low and mid-majors (west)

2022 draftees: 83. Top school: UC Santa Barbara (6)
2022 preseason writeup (published 11/23/2021)

Top draftees:
1-8, Twins: SS Brooks Lee (Cal Poly)
1-10, Rockies: RHP Gabriel Hughes (Gonzaga)
2-59, Cardinals: LHP Brycen Mautz (San Diego)
2-61, Yankees: RHP Drew Thorpe (Cal Poly)
3-96, Braves: C Drake Baldwin (Missouri State)
3-98, Blue Jays: OF Alan Roden (Creighton)
3-100, Yankees: RHP Trystan Vrieling (Gonzaga)

Moving west of the Mississippi River, our western mid majors couldn't quite match the eastern mid majors' total of 95 draftees last year, but UC Santa Barbara did lead all mid major schools with six draftees and Cal Poly's Brooks Lee and Gonzaga's Gabriel Hughes marked the two highest drafted mid major players last year. Just like back east, even though we're focusing outside the traditional Power Five conferences, there are still some college baseball juggernauts in the smaller conferences like Dallas Baptist, Gonzaga, and UC Santa Barbara, and looking back a little more historically, schools like Rice, Long Beach State, Cal State Fullerton, and San Diego State have had plenty of success.

Similar to the east, the new age of the transfer portal did put a dent in this class. Two-way player Paul Skenes transferred from Air Force to LSU while righty Juaron Watts-Brown transferred from Long Beach State to Oklahoma State, and they would have both been top-three prospects on this list. Luke Keaschall transferred from San Francisco to Arizona State, and he would have also been represented here. So as with the east, while it's not nearly a blanket statement, you are more likely to see late bloomers in these conferences.

This year's iteration includes Jacob Wilson, who for now is the top mid major prospect on either side of the river, headlining a class heavy on hit-over-power types. While you'll only find one player with a plus power grade on this list, and that's arguable, five of the six hitters in the top ten prospects registered a strikeout rate below 15% last year and five of six also batted above .340. The four pitchers on the list, meanwhile, all come with very different profiles. And finally, you'll notice that the top four (and six of the top eight) players drafted from these schools a year ago came from Cal Poly, Gonzaga, or San Diego, and all three of those schools are represented on this top ten list once again for 2023.

1. SS Jacob Wilson, Grand Canyon.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 175 lbs. Born 3/30/2002. Hometown: Thousand Oaks, CA.
2022: 12 HR, .358/.418/.585, 0 SB, 7/25 K/BB in 59 games.
Jack Wilson spent over a decade in the majors, mostly with the Pirates, then went on to coach at Thousand Oaks High School in Southern California. He coached some incredible infield talent there, including the younger Max Muncy now of the A's, Roc Riggio now of Oklahoma State, and his son, Jacob Wilson, the best prospect at any mid major school in the country right now. The elder Wilson actually followed his son to Grand Canyon, where he recently signed on to be an assistant coach. Jacob, meanwhile is well established in Phoenix. He is coming off an impressive sophomore season in which he struck out just seven times in 59 games, followed by a solid run through the Cape Cod League (.278/.381/.389) and with the Collegiate National Team (.362/.462/.455). Wilson, of course, stands out for his pure hitting ability, with elite plate discipline that ranks among the best in the country. Very jittery at the plate and on the field, he twitches his bat and taps his feet in the box while awaiting the pitch, but quiets everything down for consistent execution. He's so advanced in the box that it almost looks like he's seeing pitches in slow motion, laying off the ones he doesn't like and rarely missing the ones he does. This is true against fastballs, breaking balls, you name it, and his .381 on-base percentage and 11.9% strikeout rate in a small Cape sample show that it's not just a product of a smaller conference. At this point, he's very skinny and shows below average power, but he can turn on the ball and send it out to the pull side. Despite standing 6'3", that skinny frame does limit his projection a little bit and he'll likely never have better than average power, but his elite ability to recognize pitches, and therefore mistakes, will help him continue to show that ambush power all the way up the ladder. The ultimate projection here is a .300+ hitter with on-base percentages nearing .400, with perhaps 10-15 home runs per year at peak. Defensively, he's very light on his feet at shortstop with strong feel for the position and enough arm strength to make it work, giving him a chance to stick at the premium position with a little luck. Ultimately, there is a good chance a defender with more range pushes him off the position, in which case he could profile very well at second or third base. For now, this is an easy first round profile with a chance to go in the top ten picks if teams believe in his defense and/or his ability to grow into some power.

2. UT Cole Carrigg, San Diego State.
Bat: S. Throw: R. 6'3", 190 lbs. Born 5/8/2002. Hometown: Turlock, CA.
2022: 3 HR, .388/.426/.509, 19 SB, 28/12 K/BB in 54 games.
Jacob Wilson played with A's 2021 first round pick Max Muncy at Thousand Oaks High School in the Los Angeles suburbs, while Cole Carrigg was teammates with A's 2020 first round pick Tyler Soderstrom at Turlock High School in the Central Valley. I mentioned that this list contains five hitters that batted over .340 last year, and of those, Carrigg's .388 mark was the best. Not only that, but he kept making consistent, quality contact in the Cape Cod League over the summer where he slashed .325/.388/.411 over a large, 46 game sample. He gets to balls all over the zone with a simple, line drive-oriented approach, keeping his eyes behind the ball and shooting it back where it came from. With excellent feel for the barrel, that leads to consistent execution and plenty of hard hit balls around the field. Similar to Wilson, he's 6'3" but he's very skinny, with perhaps even less physical projection than Wilson. The power is safely below average for now and likely always will be, with the potential for fringe-average power if he tacks on additional muscle. Either way, it's not a power-conscious approach, and he'll likely settle in around ten home runs a year at his peak. Defensively, Carrigg is a true utility man. He played seven different positions in the Cape Cod League alone, appearing everywhere except the bottom two on the defensive spectrum – first base and left field. Yes, he even threw 5.2 innings on the mound, striking out seven while allowing just two baserunners against elite hitters. That's much better than his one appearance at San Diego State this year, where Iowa got him for six runs in the only inning he threw. A very good athlete, Carrigg shows the above average speed and plus arm to profile anywhere on the diamond, whether that means shortstop, center field, or even catcher. For now, his actions around the dirt aren't quite fluid enough to warrant a long term future at shortstop, but specializing in infield defense and dropping the outfield/mound/catcher's mitt could help him get there if his development system commits to it. Behind the plate, the arm strength and athleticism will buy him time for his finer glovework to catch up, and it's a real possibility. Carrigg has four tools that are comfortably above average or better, and being on the younger side for the class helps his profile as well. It's a very interesting one that could develop in any number of directions.

3. 3B Mike Boeve, Omaha.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'3", 200 lbs. Born 5/5/2002. Hometown: Hastings, NE.
2022: 8 HR, .364/.491/.584, 12 SB, 29/39 K/BB in 57 games.
Three names, three hit-over-power profiles in a row. Similar to Jacob Wilson, Mike Boeve's profile is carried by elite plate discipline that saw him walk 14.6% of the time last year while striking out just 10.9% of the time – leading to nearly a .500 on-base percentage. That strong approach carried over to the Cape Cod League, where he slashed .278/.403/.339 over 41 games. He has a similar approach to hitting as Cole Carrigg, never trying to do too much at the plate and instead happily barreling the ball to all fields with a simple left handed swing. Like Wilson and Carrigg, we're talking below average power from another 6'3" frame for Boeve, but there is reason to believe he may grow into some. For now, his approach can get slappy at times and he tends to leak his power over his front foot while he's focused on simply meeting the baseball with the barrel, but when he turns on the ball while maintaining his leverage, he can get into some sneaky power. That power didn't show up on the Cape, where he had just seven extra base hits (all doubles) in 41 games for a paltry .061 ISO, but I do think he has a chance to tap more in pro ball. He's not quite the defender that Wilson or Carrigg are, with an arm that may be stretched at third base and range that might be stretched at second base, so the bat will have to carry the profile. He does have a shot to be a bat-first infielder that can hit 10-15, perhaps even 15-20, home runs per season with high on-base percentages.

4. 3B Kevin Sim, San Diego.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 210 lbs. Born 2/7/2002. Hometown: San Diego, CA.
2022: 12 HR, .292/.387/.527, 8 SB, 39/35 K/BB in 57 games.
On a list full of contact-first bats, Kevin Sim has the best raw power of the group even if his twelve home runs a year ago won't blow you away. In addition to his strong season at San Diego, he hit five more home runs on the Cape over the summer while slashing .239/.349/.424 over 27 games. Sim packs plenty of strength into his 6'2" frame, unleashing a powerful, leveraged right handed swing that helps him produce some high exit velocities. Combine that with a very strong approach at the plate (an ongoing theme on this list), and he's consistently putting himself in position to do damage. Unlike his peers on this list, his pure bat to ball skills do lag behind a bit, and while his disciplined approach helped him run a strong 14.5% strikeout rate at San Diego last year, it ballooned to 27.5% on the Cape against more advanced pitching. With some moving parts in his swing, it remains to be seen whether he can catch up to higher level stuff consistently once in pro ball. Still, it's a well-rounded offensive profile that could produce 20-25 or more home runs per season along with potentially high on-base percentages if he can keep his strikeout rate down. Over at third base, he shows the arm strength and natural feel for the position necessary to profile there, but he's not a quick twitch athlete and his range may force him to first base in the long run. There, the emphasis will be even more on his ability to make consistent contact, though he will likely always run high walk rates.

5. RHP Levi Wells, Texas State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 215 lbs. Born 9/21/2001. Hometown: La Porte, TX.
2022: 8-3, 3.07 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 86/32 K/BB in 91 innings.
Levi Wells was a highly regarded recruit out of the Houston area, starting his college career at Texas Tech but struggling mightily with his command. He transferred to Texas State as a sophomore, where he found his footing in a big way and held down the Saturday starter role all season long as he cut his walk rate all the way from 25% down to 8.2%. That was followed up by a solid run through the Cape Cod League, here he posted a 3.70 ERA and a 29/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 innings as a reliever. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, adding a potentially plus curveball with power and depth as well as a less used cutter and changeup. Despite the loud stuff, though, he didn't miss as many bats as you'd like and ran just a 22.2% strikeout rate at Texas State, though that number spiked to 38.2% in short stints on the Cape. His fastball is fairly straight, playing a bit below its above average velocity, and he does need to get a little more consistent with his curveball. Beyond that, it would behoove him to take a step forward with either the cutter or the changeup to give him a third weapon, as well as continuing to refine his command. The control was ahead of the command in 2022 and that was evident against more experienced bats on the Cape, where his walk rate jumped up to 15.8%. There are numerous small holes in the profile, but nothing is back breaking and they also provide numerous opportunities for him to step forward in his development. He doesn't need to patch all of them, but even incremental progress on things like his fastball movement and his changeup could turn him into a legitimate starting pitching prospect. Watch for improvement in any number of small areas in 2023.

6. RHP Kade Morris, Nevada.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 170 lbs. Born 6/21/2002. Hometown: Turlock, CA.
2022: 7-4, 3.95 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 45/18 K/BB in 57 innings.
A cross-town rival of Cole Carrigg's during high school in Turlock, California, Kade Morris wound up at Nevada and transferred to TCU when Nevada head coach T.J. Bruce took an assistant coaching position there. However, before he could make it to Fort Worth, Morris took a metaphorical U turn and he'll remain in Reno for his draft year. He posted nice numbers a year ago as a swingman pitching in some very offense-friendly environments, then took a step forward with three strong starts in the Cape Cod League over the summer (1.08 ERA, 9/6 K/BB in 16.2 IP). He sits in the low 90's with his fastball as a starter, running it up to 97 in short stints while adding a full arsenal of secondaries. His sweeping, two plane slider is his best secondary right now, while he also shows a more vertical curveball to steal strikes and keeps a changeup in his back pocket. For now, though, he mostly works off that fastball/slider combination. The 6'3" righty is very athletic on the mound, working from a low three quarters slot with an easy delivery, and he's likely to add more velocity as he fills out his projectable frame. Morris also pounds the strike zone and rarely hurts himself with walks, running a very solid 7.6% walk rate at Nevada a year ago and 9.4% on the Cape. But to this point, the flaw in his profile is that he doesn't miss as many bats in the zone as he needs to. The fastball has some modest life but it's nothing special, while the slider alone is not quite potent enough to rack up high numbers of whiffs on its own. If he wants to convince teams he's a starter at the next level, he'll want to significantly bump up the 18.9% strikeout rate he ran at Nevada last year that dropped to 14.1% on the Cape. Still, with his projection, youth, athleticism, arm strength, and deep arsenal, there is plenty to like going forward and he would probably sneak into the top one hundred picks if the draft were today.

7. 2B Charles McAdoo, San Jose State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 210 lbs. Born 3/6/2002. Hometown: Antioch, CA.
2022: 12 HR, .345/.406/.629, 6 SB, 33/19 K/BB in 56 games.
Charles McAdoo didn't play much as a freshman, but he got into the everyday lineup as a sophomore and posted some of the best numbers in the Mountain West. Moving on to the Northwoods League over the summer, he continued to mash to the tune of a .305/.363/.575 line and ten home runs in 43 games. Very aggressive in the box, he doesn't like to waste time in his at bats and will jump on the first pitch he likes, leading to just a 7.3% walk rate at San Jose State and 8.9% in the Northwoods League. Meanwhile, his very strong feel for the barrel means that he was still very effective at keeping his strikeout rates down, rarely missing that pitch he decided to jump on with lots of hard contact around the field. Packing a ton of strength into his 6'2" frame, he works with a compact operation in the box and a leveraged swing that helps him produce above average raw power. His approach is geared towards smoking line drives to all fields, but he's certainly not afraid to turn on the ball and send it deep into the left field seats. Going forward into pro ball, it will be important to keep an eye on that aggressive approach, as his strikeout rate rose from 12.6% at San Jose State to 21.1% in the Northwoods League. Pro pitchers will take advantage of that propensity to chase, so his ability to make adjustments could make or break his profile. It's a profile reliant on the bat, as he's a fringy defender that should be adequate at second base.

8. RHP Owen Wild, Gonzaga.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 230 lbs. Born 7/30/2002. Hometown: Gig Harbor, WA.
2022: 9-1, 3.03 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 83/24 K/BB in 74.1 innings.
Last year, Gonzaga had a trio of pitchers go in the top three rounds in first rounder Gabriel Hughes (Rockies) and third rounders Trystan Vrieling (Yankees) and William Kempner (Giants). They're not done yet, as Owen Wild looks ready to take that next step and become the next Bulldog ace. Wild made just two appearances as a freshman, but was very effective in a swingman role as a sophomore and continued to impress in the Alaska Summer League, where he posted a 1.82 ERA and a 43/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 29.2 innings. Wild's fastball has ticked up into the low 90's now, reaching the mid 90's at best with flat plane and some ride. He has a slurvy breaking ball that shows well when he keeps it down, and added power could make it an above average or better pitch. Wild also shows an above average changeup with great fade, though he does need to be more consistent with his arm speed when he throws it. The 6'2" righty is physically developed and works from a drop and drive delivery, helping him work from a low center of gravity that makes his pitches play up. He's also very young for the class, not turning 21 until after the draft, which gives him plenty of time to hone his arsenal. All three pitches have the potential to become above average or better, and he shows above average command to boot. I like this one and I think he has a very good shot to become a mid-rotation starter.

9. RHP Bryce Warrecker, Cal Poly.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'8", 240 lbs. Born 9/13/2001. Hometown: Santa Barbara, CA.
2022: 2-0, 5.81 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 30/5 K/BB in 26.1 innings.
Bryce Warrecker hasn't done much in two years at Cal Poly, holding a 5.61 career ERA and a .298 opponents' batting average over fewer than sixty innings, but few players did as much to elevate their profile in the Cape Cod League as Warrecker did. Over eleven games (seven starts), he put up a 2.03 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and a 36/8 strikeout to walk ratio across 40 innings, enough to be named the Cape Cod League Outstanding Pitcher. A towering presence at 6'8", he comes from a low three quarters slot that gives hitters a unique look and lays the foundation for a profile that works off of deception. He doesn't work with much velocity, sitting in the low 90's and rarely popping above that range, and brings a couple of quality secondaries. His slider varies between a sweeper and more of a downer pitch depending on what he needs, while his changeup looks above average with late drop. He allowed a lot of loud contact at Cal Poly and ran a modest 22.6% strikeout rate on the Cape even as he kept runs and baserunners off the board, so he'll likely have a low margin for error in pro ball. The good news is that he also pounds the strike zone with above average command, making for a very solid back-end starter profile. There is a lot to like here even if the upside is a bit limited.

10. SS John Peck, Pepperdine.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 165 lbs. Born 7/18/2002. Hometown: Moorpark, CA.
2022: 7 HR, .361/.417/.578, 7 SB, 38/14 K/BB in 40 games.
John Peck is sure to be a polarizing prospect in this class, with a lot of underlying strengths and weaknesses. He raked at Pepperdine this past spring, slashing .361/.417/.578 sandwiched around an April injury that kept him out for close to a month. He moved on to the Cape over the summer, where he struggled immensely to the tune of a .182/.248/.245 slash line and a 31.8% strikeout rate over 45 games including just two hits in his final ten games. Peck has worked to get stronger and, when he's going right, unleashes a barrage of line drives to all fields that helped him hit .361 at Pepperdine last year. He can really smoke the ball, with strong batted ball data that could point to plus power in the tank if he learns how to tap it. For now, he doesn't turn on the ball often enough to do so and with a strikeout rate above 20% at Pepperdine and above 30% on the Cape, he'll also have to improve his pitch selection in tandem with a more power-conscious approach should he choose to pursue it. Defensively, he's very smooth with the glove around the infield and has a better chance to stick at shortstop than anyone else on this list. It's a very interesting profile that could really thrive in the right development system, but there's some boom/bust there as well. Like Owen Wild, he's very young for the class and won't turn 21 until after the draft.