First five rounds: Zack Thompson (1-19), Trejyn Fletcher (2-58), Tony Locey (3-96), Andre Pallante (4-125), Connor Thomas (5-155)
Also notable: Pedro Pages (6-185), Jack Ralston (7-215), Alex McFarlane (25-755), Chris Newell (37-1115)
The Cardinals typically draft well, and this year was no different. They went pitching-heavy and college-heavy, taking eight pitchers with their first eleven picks and ten college players in those first eleven picks. This will replenish the pitching depth in what is currently a hitter-heavy system, as the underperformance of many of the system's better pitchers may leave Johan Oviedo, who you probably haven't heard of, as their pre-draft top pitching prospect. That's now easily Zack Thompson, and guys like Tony Locey and Andre Pallante add more depth as potential future #4 starters. Because they were able to get Thompson for $360,000 below slot, they were able to go over slot on three high schoolers and a JuCo bat on day three, helping add even more depth with this class. However, spending $400,000 against their bonus pool on those four guys will make it nearly impossible for them to sign highly regarded 25th rounder Alex McFarlane or 37th rounder Chris Newell.
1-19: LHP Zack Thompson (Kentucky, my rank: 18)
Thompson was projected to go closer to the 11-14 range, and while I wasn't quite that high on him, this is good value for the Cardinals at #19 overall, especially given that he signed for a discount. After an injury-slowed sophomore season where he posted a 4.94 ERA and a 42/20 strikeout to walk ratio, he bounced back for a huge 2019 in which he posted a 2.40 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 130/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 innings, including a 2.27 ERA and a 93/27 strikeout to walk ratio in the gauntlet of SEC play. Thompson is a 6'3" lefty from just outside of Muncie, Indiana armed with four good pitches, including a low 90's fastball, a slider, a curveball, and a changeup, all of which he uses to miss bats and keep hitters off balance. His command isn't pinpoint but it was a little better this year and he could easily end up becoming a mid-rotation starter, though I have a hard time seeing him become more than that because while he has a slew of good pitches, nothing stands out as a true plus. Thompson signed for $3 million, which was $360,000 below slot.
2-58: OF Trejyn Fletcher (Deering HS [ME], my rank: 79)
This move is very risky for the Cardinals, especially considering the fact that Fletcher required an overslot bonus. Fletcher is from Portland, Maine, but attended the Trinity-Pawling School in New York for his first two years of high school before transferring back to Deering High School back in Portland for his junior season. However, he was set to turn 18 in April and was therefore very old for a high school junior, so he re-classified to an age-appropriate senior in March. Because he's coming from way off the beaten prospect path in Maine and scouting directors thought they had another year to evaluate him anyways, that drove a mad rush to the far north as teams scrambled to evaluate him. As you would expect, Fletcher is extremely raw, but he's an exceptional athlete who shows power and speed to dream on. His swing needs a lot of mechanical tweaks, as he doesn't get much extension at all, but the bat is quick and produces nice raw power. His hit tool is also completely unproven, as he didn't hit particularly well in summer ball and Maine high school competition isn't exactly the toughest. Defensively, he's an asset in center field with his speed and arm strength, though he has to work on the mental/instincts portion of his game out there. Fletcher has a long, long way to go, but if all goes well, the Cardinals could turn him into an all-around impact player with power, speed, and good defense, and that's why they spent $1.5 million ($290,000 above slot) to sign him away from a strong Vanderbilt commitment.
3-96: RHP Tony Locey (Georgia, my rank: 120)
Last time, I wrote about the Mariners taking Georgia starter Tim Elliott in the fourth round, this time, I'll write about the Cardinals taking Georgia starter Tony Locey in the third round, and next year, I'll likely write about somebody taking Georgia starter Emerson Hancock in the first round and Georgia starter Cole Wilcox somewhere on Day One. Anyways, Locey has improved every year in Athens after posting a 6.38 ERA as a freshman and a 4.28 mark as a sophomore, this year going 11-2 with a 2.53 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 97/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 innings. He's a big guy at 6'3", 240 pounds, and he uses a mid 90's fastball that can reach higher to miss bats. He also adds a slider, a curveball, and a changeup, though the slider is the only secondary offering that will have any effectiveness in pro ball at this point. He also has fringy command, so the Cardinals will have a couple of things for him to work on if he wants to remain a starter. If he can sharpen either the curve or the changeup, he has a chance to make it as a #5 starter, and if he can sharpen both or just one plus his command, he could be a #3 or a #4 guy. However, as it stands, he carries reliever risk and could wind up as a fastball/slider bullpen guy who blows hitters away with an upper 90's fastball. One thing working in his favor is his age, as he is young for a junior and doesn't turn 21 until July. The Warner Robbins, Georgia native signed at slot for $604,800.
4-125: RHP Andre Pallante (UC Irvine, unranked)
I'm a one man crew, so I wasn't able to get to Pallante before the draft, but if I had, I think I would have ranked him above Locey. The Southern California native posted a 2.68 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and an 89/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings this year, albeit with a pitcher-friendly home park at UC Irvine. He's a smaller guy at six feet tall and has long arm action, but he's athletic and throws plenty of strikes. Stuff-wise, he sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds three secondary pitches, though none stand out as plus. Still, he has exhibited solid pitchability and if the Cardinals can tone down his delivery just a little bit, he could easily have above average command. There's definitely reliever risk due to his lack of size, but he has some upside and could be a #3 or #4 starter. He's also very young for a college junior, not turning 21 until September, which helps his case. Pallante signed at slot for $455,600.
5-155: LHP Connor Thomas (Georgia Tech, unranked)
Two rounds after taking a South Georgia native in Georgia's Tony Locey, the Cardinals grabbed another South Georgian in Connor Thomas, who travelled from rural Tift County up to the big city at Georgia Tech. However, while Locey is a 6'3" power pitcher armed with a big fastball, Thomas is just about the opposite. This year, the 5'11" lefty posted a 3.11 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 103/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 innings, and I think the numbers tell the story. Thomas only sits in the upper 80's with his fastball, but he adds a very good slider and changeup and commands all three pitches exceptionally well from a low three quarters arm slot. As a little lefty without velocity, Thomas will have very little margin of error, but he might be just fine in that case because of that command and secondary stuff. At a skinny 5'11", he's unlikely to add too much more velocity, but if the Cardinals can get him up a tick or two to sit around 90, he could be a successful #4 or #5 starter. Otherwise, he could be a command-minded reliever. He signed at slot for $340,000.
6-185: C Pedro Pages (Florida Atlantic, unranked)
The Cardinals went for a back-up catcher here, grabbing Pedro Pages out of FAU. He's gotten better with the bat every year after slashing .243/.366/.383 as a freshman and .309/.368/.436 as a sophomore, this year slashing .310/.423/.438 with six home runs and a 45/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games for the Owls. He's a good defender with a very strong arm, which means that he'll stick back there and that will take pressure off his bat. At the plate, he can produce some pull power from a swing with plenty of torque, but it doesn't show up in games all that often and he's more of an all-around average hitter. He's patient at the plate and draws a lot of walks, boosting his profile, and he projects more as a backup catcher rather than as Yadier Molina's full-time heir to the position. The Miami native signed for $250,000, which was $11,600 below slot, and he collected five hits (including two doubles) in his first nine at bats at short season State College, also adding two walks.
7-215: RHP Jack Ralston (UCLA, unranked)
While Rangers second rounder Ryan Garcia got most of the attention as UCLA's ace, it was actually Jack Ralston who led the #1 regular season team in the country in innings pitched. He came out of nowhere this year, too, as he redshirted his true freshman season in 2016, did not pitch during his redshirt-freshman season in 2017, then posted a 6.44 ERA and an 18/14 strikeout to walk ratio during his redshirt-sophomore season in 2018. Still, he was talented enough to earn a stint in the Cape Cod League, where he had a 7.11 ERA and walked six batters over 6.1 innings. However, everything clicked and then some in 2019, as the 6'6" righty posted a 2.66 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 110/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.1 innings, including a 2.21 ERA in conference play in a tough Pac-12. He's a fastball/curveball guy with the former sitting in the low 90's and the latter being a true plus pitch, though he lacks much of a changeup. His command improved significantly this year and is now closer to average, though he still has a lot of moving parts and long arm action in his delivery. Realistically, he's probably a fastball/curveball reliever that could be very effective in short stints, though he has plenty of arm strength and projectability and the Cardinals could conceivably help him succeed as a #3 or #4 starter if a) he improves his changeup and b) he maintains the strides he has made with his command. Ralston is young for his class so despite being in his fourth year at UCLA, he doesn't turn 22 until August. He signed at slot for $204,800.
25-755: RHP Alex McFarlane (Habersham Central HS [GA], my rank: 114)
McFarlane was talented enough to go in the top five rounds, but signability away from his Miami commitment knocked him down to the 25th. He grew up in the U.S. Virgin Islands, but moved to the mountains of Northeast Georgia for his senior year of high school. McFarlane is a 6'3" righty with variable fastball velocity, sitting in the low 90's at his best but dipping to the high 80's both late in games and late in the season. His slider flashes plus at times but also lacks consistency, and he has a changeup that needs work. He is extremely athletic and has a quick arm, but he needs to get more efficient with his delivery and that in turn could help him add more power to his stuff. McFarlane, like many high schoolers, comes with a high ceiling and a low floor, and we'll likely find out more about that in Coral Gables over the next three seasons.
37-1115: OF Chris Newell (Malvern Prep HS [PA], my rank: 89)
Like McFarlane, Newell could have been a top five round or even top three round pick, but signability away from Virginia caused him to fall to the 37th. Newell is an athletic outfielder from the Philadelphia area with plenty of tools. He has an uppercut swing that produces above average power from a 6'2" frame, though he has some questions about his hit tool that will need to be addressed at the next level, which will likely be the ACC. He also has some speed and should be able to handle center field, taking some pressure off his bat. He and McFarlane will face each other in ACC play over the next three years and will be eligible again in 2022.
Showing posts with label Trejyn Fletcher. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trejyn Fletcher. Show all posts
Sunday, June 23, 2019
Monday, May 20, 2019
2019 Draft Preview: High School Outfielders
This isn't a particularly deep class of high school outfielders, with the Atlanta area usually sending us a boatload but remaining quiet this year, but once you get past the top two rounds or so, more names do start to appear. Most of the better bats in this high school draft class will be found on the infield (see Bobby Witt, Brett Baty, Rece Hinds, Tyler Callihan), but it's not empty and there certainly are some headliners.
Tier I: Riley Greene, Corbin Carroll
The two headliners in this year's high school outfield class live three thousand miles apart on perfectly opposite corners of the country, and their skill sets might be just as far apart as well. Riley Greene, playing ball in Orlando and committed to Florida, is the best pure bat in the high school class save for Witt. Greene is imposing at the plate at 6'1" and gets to his plus raw power very consistently, making him as safe a bet as any high schooler to hit in pro ball. He has a big swing, but his very good approach at the plate and hand-eye coordination help him keep his swing and miss rate low, and those two traits combined should help him grow into 25-30 home run pop in the majors. Combine that with his projected high on-base percentages, and Greene should be a solid middle of the order hitter down the road. He's just so-so in the outfield, likely ending up in left field, but he won't be a liability and the added pressure on his bat won't be an issue. He'll definitely go in the top ten picks, more than likely in the top six. Seattle native Corbin Carroll is safely behind Greene on most draft boards, but he provides a very different vision of a player. At a listed 5'11" and 160 pounds, he doesn't look like an impact hitter, but he has one of the best hit tools in the country among high schoolers with an exceptional feel for both the barrel and zone that help him get on base consistently even against high-level competition. Carroll does a good job of using his load to gain ground on the ball, allowing him to drive through the ball and giving evaluators hope that he can add power down the road as he fills out. He's a good defender in center field who should be able to stick there, with his plus speed helping him track down balls in the gaps. He looks to go somewhere in the top half of the first round, though closer to the middle than the front.
Tier II: Sammy Siani, Maurice Hampton, Jerrion Ealy, Trejyn Fletcher
If Greene and Carroll were about as different as it gets, then the four players in this tier (save for Siani) are actually pretty similar. Sammy Siani, younger brother of Reds 2018 fourth rounder Mike Siani, plays ball in Philadelphia and offers an interesting tool set. He's just 5'11" but he has a smooth, uppercut swing that could produce close to average power down the road. Despite his power-oriented swing, he actually does a very good job of getting the bat on the ball consistently and catching up to good pitching, so with less of a need to worry about his strikeout rates climbing to high, he can continue focusing on trying to drive the ball into the gaps and over fences. He's pretty good defensively so that's a slight boost, and he has a fairly wide range of outcomes due to his potential power upside. He looks like a second round pick at the moment. Over in Memphis, Maurice Hampton offers some really interesting upside with his intense athleticism (he's committed to LSU to play both baseball and football) and present tools. Hampton has a quick swing and above average raw power, though like most two-sport athletes, he needs to refine his hit tool and learn to translate his batting practice power into game power. He also needs to get a little more patient at the plate, as increasing his walk rate could help him employ that SEC cornerback speed on the bases. Defensively, that speed makes him a solid center fielder, though he's raw there as well. With an August birthday, Hampton is one of the younger players in the class. which will give him some extra time to refine his game if he chooses to give up football. He looks like he could go in the comp round, but signability will make that uncertain. Interestingly, Hampton isn't the only two-way SEC recruit this year, as Jackson, Mississippi's Jerrion Ealy is committed to Ole Miss as a running back. At 5'10" and 190 pounds, he's built like a running back, too, and that athleticism makes him a really interesting baseball prospect. Ealy hits the ball hard and showed impressive feel for the barrel over the summer, but it's been a rough spring as he has shown that he has a long way to go offensively. His mechanics need to be ironed out so that he can smooth out his swing and add loft, and given his mediocre performance this spring, he comes with a lot of risk. He's better defensively than Hampton at this point, showing a better chance to stick in center field, though he's also a full year older with an August birthday. When Hampton turns 18, he'll turn 19 less than three weeks later, and he looks more like a second or third round pick, also clouded by signability concerns. Trejyn Fletcher isn't committed to an SEC school to play football, but it's a good thing we're talking about baseball because Vanderbilt has a spot waiting for him in its dugout for next season. Despite the lack of gridiron skills, Fletcher is just as interesting as Hampton and Ealy because he reclassified from a junior to a senior this year (which would be age-appropriate for him anyways), and oh yeah, he might be the best high school baseball prospect in Maine history. The Portland native is just as raw as you would expect for a kid from what I as a Virginian consider the Arctic, showing a very choppy, short swing that won't work in pro ball. That said, he's extremely athletic and has been rising on draft boards recently, shooting up potentially into the second round, and his solid glove and strong arm will buy the bat some time to develop. He has high upside and a lot of risk, but it looks like he might get drafted early enough for a team to keep him from following the path that infielder Ryan Flaherty paved from Portland to Vanderbilt.
Tier III: Chris Newell, Trey Faltine, Glenallen Hill Jr., Joshua Mears
These four don't offer quite the upside of the previous four, or if they do, they have a bit less of a chance to get there. Chris Newell, like Siani, lives in the Philadelphia area, and he actually has a fairly similar left handed swing to him. However, while Siani is currently hit over power due to his feel for the barrel, Newell is more power over hit and is already driving the ball with more authority than Siani, at least when he gets to it. There is more swing and miss in his game, giving the uppercut less of a chance to work in pro ball, and he has a fairly similar defensive profile to his crosstown Trey Faltine has one of the more interesting profiles among the guys who aren't SEC football players, as he's probably the most versatile player in the entire class. Faltine, from the Houston area, can play any position but catcher and he's also a legitimate pitching prospect, which I'll leave for a later writeup while I throw him in the outfield group for this one. Offensively, he has a great feel for the barrel with a swing that is more geared for contact than for power, and at 6'3", he could add some power down the road. He's not exceptionally fast but he can play any position, using his instincts to perform well anywhere from shortstop to center field. Despite his feel for the game, he overall lacks the current in-game impact of some of the players ahead of him, but once he decides what position he wants to play and gives up pitching (if he ends up as a position player at all), he should be able to channel his focus into becoming a top of the order hitter with high on-base percentages, some power, and average to slightly above average speed. He looks like a third or fourth rounder at first glance but could sneak into the second round. Glenallen Hill Jr. is the son of former big leaguer Glenallen Hill, and the Santa Cruz native has used his big, powerful swing to put himself on the map as a potential power hitter despite standing just 5'9". He's not too much unlike the Rangers' Willie Calhoun in that regard, though he's faster, can switch hit, and is limited to the outfield defensively. Hill's swing is a thing of beauty, but he has struggled with contact at times and because of his size, the power plays closer to average. Those two issues combined make him more of a third or fourth round prospect, though he has some real upside if he can find a way to get to his power consistently and use his speed to play good defense in the outfield. Lastly, Seattle area-native Joshua Mears doesn't quite match his cross-town opponent Corbin Carroll, but he's got some pop coming from a 6'3", 235 pound frame. Combine that with a good swing that generates plenty of whip and loft, and that will get scouts' attention. He has some swing and miss in his game and he's mediocre defensively, but the upside at the plate if he can gain a better approach at the plate will make him a solid pick in the third or fourth rounds.
Others: Hylan Hall, Dasan Brown, James Beard, Hudson Head
Tier I: Riley Greene, Corbin Carroll
The two headliners in this year's high school outfield class live three thousand miles apart on perfectly opposite corners of the country, and their skill sets might be just as far apart as well. Riley Greene, playing ball in Orlando and committed to Florida, is the best pure bat in the high school class save for Witt. Greene is imposing at the plate at 6'1" and gets to his plus raw power very consistently, making him as safe a bet as any high schooler to hit in pro ball. He has a big swing, but his very good approach at the plate and hand-eye coordination help him keep his swing and miss rate low, and those two traits combined should help him grow into 25-30 home run pop in the majors. Combine that with his projected high on-base percentages, and Greene should be a solid middle of the order hitter down the road. He's just so-so in the outfield, likely ending up in left field, but he won't be a liability and the added pressure on his bat won't be an issue. He'll definitely go in the top ten picks, more than likely in the top six. Seattle native Corbin Carroll is safely behind Greene on most draft boards, but he provides a very different vision of a player. At a listed 5'11" and 160 pounds, he doesn't look like an impact hitter, but he has one of the best hit tools in the country among high schoolers with an exceptional feel for both the barrel and zone that help him get on base consistently even against high-level competition. Carroll does a good job of using his load to gain ground on the ball, allowing him to drive through the ball and giving evaluators hope that he can add power down the road as he fills out. He's a good defender in center field who should be able to stick there, with his plus speed helping him track down balls in the gaps. He looks to go somewhere in the top half of the first round, though closer to the middle than the front.
Tier II: Sammy Siani, Maurice Hampton, Jerrion Ealy, Trejyn Fletcher
If Greene and Carroll were about as different as it gets, then the four players in this tier (save for Siani) are actually pretty similar. Sammy Siani, younger brother of Reds 2018 fourth rounder Mike Siani, plays ball in Philadelphia and offers an interesting tool set. He's just 5'11" but he has a smooth, uppercut swing that could produce close to average power down the road. Despite his power-oriented swing, he actually does a very good job of getting the bat on the ball consistently and catching up to good pitching, so with less of a need to worry about his strikeout rates climbing to high, he can continue focusing on trying to drive the ball into the gaps and over fences. He's pretty good defensively so that's a slight boost, and he has a fairly wide range of outcomes due to his potential power upside. He looks like a second round pick at the moment. Over in Memphis, Maurice Hampton offers some really interesting upside with his intense athleticism (he's committed to LSU to play both baseball and football) and present tools. Hampton has a quick swing and above average raw power, though like most two-sport athletes, he needs to refine his hit tool and learn to translate his batting practice power into game power. He also needs to get a little more patient at the plate, as increasing his walk rate could help him employ that SEC cornerback speed on the bases. Defensively, that speed makes him a solid center fielder, though he's raw there as well. With an August birthday, Hampton is one of the younger players in the class. which will give him some extra time to refine his game if he chooses to give up football. He looks like he could go in the comp round, but signability will make that uncertain. Interestingly, Hampton isn't the only two-way SEC recruit this year, as Jackson, Mississippi's Jerrion Ealy is committed to Ole Miss as a running back. At 5'10" and 190 pounds, he's built like a running back, too, and that athleticism makes him a really interesting baseball prospect. Ealy hits the ball hard and showed impressive feel for the barrel over the summer, but it's been a rough spring as he has shown that he has a long way to go offensively. His mechanics need to be ironed out so that he can smooth out his swing and add loft, and given his mediocre performance this spring, he comes with a lot of risk. He's better defensively than Hampton at this point, showing a better chance to stick in center field, though he's also a full year older with an August birthday. When Hampton turns 18, he'll turn 19 less than three weeks later, and he looks more like a second or third round pick, also clouded by signability concerns. Trejyn Fletcher isn't committed to an SEC school to play football, but it's a good thing we're talking about baseball because Vanderbilt has a spot waiting for him in its dugout for next season. Despite the lack of gridiron skills, Fletcher is just as interesting as Hampton and Ealy because he reclassified from a junior to a senior this year (which would be age-appropriate for him anyways), and oh yeah, he might be the best high school baseball prospect in Maine history. The Portland native is just as raw as you would expect for a kid from what I as a Virginian consider the Arctic, showing a very choppy, short swing that won't work in pro ball. That said, he's extremely athletic and has been rising on draft boards recently, shooting up potentially into the second round, and his solid glove and strong arm will buy the bat some time to develop. He has high upside and a lot of risk, but it looks like he might get drafted early enough for a team to keep him from following the path that infielder Ryan Flaherty paved from Portland to Vanderbilt.
Tier III: Chris Newell, Trey Faltine, Glenallen Hill Jr., Joshua Mears
These four don't offer quite the upside of the previous four, or if they do, they have a bit less of a chance to get there. Chris Newell, like Siani, lives in the Philadelphia area, and he actually has a fairly similar left handed swing to him. However, while Siani is currently hit over power due to his feel for the barrel, Newell is more power over hit and is already driving the ball with more authority than Siani, at least when he gets to it. There is more swing and miss in his game, giving the uppercut less of a chance to work in pro ball, and he has a fairly similar defensive profile to his crosstown Trey Faltine has one of the more interesting profiles among the guys who aren't SEC football players, as he's probably the most versatile player in the entire class. Faltine, from the Houston area, can play any position but catcher and he's also a legitimate pitching prospect, which I'll leave for a later writeup while I throw him in the outfield group for this one. Offensively, he has a great feel for the barrel with a swing that is more geared for contact than for power, and at 6'3", he could add some power down the road. He's not exceptionally fast but he can play any position, using his instincts to perform well anywhere from shortstop to center field. Despite his feel for the game, he overall lacks the current in-game impact of some of the players ahead of him, but once he decides what position he wants to play and gives up pitching (if he ends up as a position player at all), he should be able to channel his focus into becoming a top of the order hitter with high on-base percentages, some power, and average to slightly above average speed. He looks like a third or fourth rounder at first glance but could sneak into the second round. Glenallen Hill Jr. is the son of former big leaguer Glenallen Hill, and the Santa Cruz native has used his big, powerful swing to put himself on the map as a potential power hitter despite standing just 5'9". He's not too much unlike the Rangers' Willie Calhoun in that regard, though he's faster, can switch hit, and is limited to the outfield defensively. Hill's swing is a thing of beauty, but he has struggled with contact at times and because of his size, the power plays closer to average. Those two issues combined make him more of a third or fourth round prospect, though he has some real upside if he can find a way to get to his power consistently and use his speed to play good defense in the outfield. Lastly, Seattle area-native Joshua Mears doesn't quite match his cross-town opponent Corbin Carroll, but he's got some pop coming from a 6'3", 235 pound frame. Combine that with a good swing that generates plenty of whip and loft, and that will get scouts' attention. He has some swing and miss in his game and he's mediocre defensively, but the upside at the plate if he can gain a better approach at the plate will make him a solid pick in the third or fourth rounds.
Others: Hylan Hall, Dasan Brown, James Beard, Hudson Head
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