Sunday, June 23, 2019

2019 Draft Review: St. Louis Cardinals

First five rounds: Zack Thompson (1-19), Trejyn Fletcher (2-58), Tony Locey (3-96), Andre Pallante (4-125), Connor Thomas (5-155)
Also notable: Pedro Pages (6-185), Jack Ralston (7-215), Alex McFarlane (25-755), Chris Newell (37-1115)

The Cardinals typically draft well, and this year was no different. They went pitching-heavy and college-heavy, taking eight pitchers with their first eleven picks and ten college players in those first eleven picks. This will replenish the pitching depth in what is currently a hitter-heavy system, as the underperformance of many of the system's better pitchers may leave Johan Oviedo, who you probably haven't heard of, as their pre-draft top pitching prospect. That's now easily Zack Thompson, and guys like Tony Locey and Andre Pallante add more depth as potential future #4 starters. Because they were able to get Thompson for $360,000 below slot, they were able to go over slot on three high schoolers and a JuCo bat on day three, helping add even more depth with this class. However, spending $400,000 against their bonus pool on those four guys will make it nearly impossible for them to sign highly regarded 25th rounder Alex McFarlane or 37th rounder Chris Newell.

1-19: LHP Zack Thompson (Kentucky, my rank: 18)
Thompson was projected to go closer to the 11-14 range, and while I wasn't quite that high on him, this is good value for the Cardinals at #19 overall, especially given that he signed for a discount. After an injury-slowed sophomore season where he posted a 4.94 ERA and a 42/20 strikeout to walk ratio, he bounced back for a huge 2019 in which he posted a 2.40 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 130/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 innings, including a 2.27 ERA and a 93/27 strikeout to walk ratio in the gauntlet of SEC play. Thompson is a 6'3" lefty from just outside of Muncie, Indiana armed with four good pitches, including a low 90's fastball, a slider, a curveball, and a changeup, all of which he uses to miss bats and keep hitters off balance. His command isn't pinpoint but it was a little better this year and he could easily end up becoming a mid-rotation starter, though I have a hard time seeing him become more than that because while he has a slew of good pitches, nothing stands out as a true plus. Thompson signed for $3 million, which was $360,000 below slot.

2-58: OF Trejyn Fletcher (Deering HS [ME], my rank: 79)
This move is very risky for the Cardinals, especially considering the fact that Fletcher required an overslot bonus. Fletcher is from Portland, Maine, but attended the Trinity-Pawling School in New York for his first two years of high school before transferring back to Deering High School back in Portland for his junior season. However, he was set to turn 18 in April and was therefore very old for a high school junior, so he re-classified to an age-appropriate senior in March. Because he's coming from way off the beaten prospect path in Maine and scouting directors thought they had another year to evaluate him anyways, that drove a mad rush to the far north as teams scrambled to evaluate him. As you would expect, Fletcher is extremely raw, but he's an exceptional athlete who shows power and speed to dream on. His swing needs a lot of mechanical tweaks, as he doesn't get much extension at all, but the bat is quick and produces nice raw power. His hit tool is also completely unproven, as he didn't hit particularly well in summer ball and Maine high school competition isn't exactly the toughest. Defensively, he's an asset in center field with his speed and arm strength, though he has to work on the mental/instincts portion of his game out there. Fletcher has a long, long way to go, but if all goes well, the Cardinals could turn him into an all-around impact player with power, speed, and good defense, and that's why they spent $1.5 million ($290,000 above slot) to sign him away from a strong Vanderbilt commitment.

3-96: RHP Tony Locey (Georgia, my rank: 120)
Last time, I wrote about the Mariners taking Georgia starter Tim Elliott in the fourth round, this time, I'll write about the Cardinals taking Georgia starter Tony Locey in the third round, and next year, I'll likely write about somebody taking Georgia starter Emerson Hancock in the first round and Georgia starter Cole Wilcox somewhere on Day One. Anyways, Locey has improved every year in Athens after posting a 6.38 ERA as a freshman and a 4.28 mark as a sophomore, this year going 11-2 with a 2.53 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 97/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 innings. He's a big guy at 6'3", 240 pounds, and he uses a mid 90's fastball that can reach higher to miss bats. He also adds a slider, a curveball, and a changeup, though the slider is the only secondary offering that will have any effectiveness in pro ball at this point. He also has fringy command, so the Cardinals will have a couple of things for him to work on if he wants to remain a starter. If he can sharpen either the curve or the changeup, he has a chance to make it as a #5 starter, and if he can sharpen both or just one plus his command, he could be a #3 or a #4 guy. However, as it stands, he carries reliever risk and could wind up as a fastball/slider bullpen guy who blows hitters away with an upper 90's fastball. One thing working in his favor is his age, as he is young for a junior and doesn't turn 21 until July. The Warner Robbins, Georgia native signed at slot for $604,800.

4-125: RHP Andre Pallante (UC Irvine, unranked)
I'm a one man crew, so I wasn't able to get to Pallante before the draft, but if I had, I think I would have ranked him above Locey. The Southern California native posted a 2.68 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and an 89/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings this year, albeit with a pitcher-friendly home park at UC Irvine. He's a smaller guy at six feet tall and has long arm action, but he's athletic and throws plenty of strikes. Stuff-wise, he sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds three secondary pitches, though none stand out as plus. Still, he has exhibited solid pitchability and if the Cardinals can tone down his delivery just a little bit, he could easily have above average command. There's definitely reliever risk due to his lack of size, but he has some upside and could be a #3 or #4 starter. He's also very young for a college junior, not turning 21 until September, which helps his case. Pallante signed at slot for $455,600.

5-155: LHP Connor Thomas (Georgia Tech, unranked)
Two rounds after taking a South Georgia native in Georgia's Tony Locey, the Cardinals grabbed another South Georgian in Connor Thomas, who travelled from rural Tift County up to the big city at Georgia Tech. However, while Locey is a 6'3" power pitcher armed with a big fastball, Thomas is just about the opposite. This year, the 5'11" lefty posted a 3.11 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 103/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 innings, and I think the numbers tell the story. Thomas only sits in the upper 80's with his fastball, but he adds a very good slider and changeup and commands all three pitches exceptionally well from a low three quarters arm slot. As a little lefty without velocity, Thomas will have very little margin of error, but he might be just fine in that case because of that command and secondary stuff. At a skinny 5'11", he's unlikely to add too much more velocity, but if the Cardinals can get him up a tick or two to sit around 90, he could be a successful #4 or #5 starter. Otherwise, he could be a command-minded reliever. He signed at slot for $340,000.

6-185: C Pedro Pages (Florida Atlantic, unranked)
The Cardinals went for a back-up catcher here, grabbing Pedro Pages out of FAU. He's gotten better with the bat every year after slashing .243/.366/.383 as a freshman and .309/.368/.436 as a sophomore, this year slashing .310/.423/.438 with six home runs and a 45/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games for the Owls. He's a good defender with a very strong arm, which means that he'll stick back there and that will take pressure off his bat. At the plate, he can produce some pull power from a swing with plenty of torque, but it doesn't show up in games all that often and he's more of an all-around average hitter. He's patient at the plate and draws a lot of walks, boosting his profile, and he projects more as a backup catcher rather than as Yadier Molina's full-time heir to the position. The Miami native signed for $250,000, which was $11,600 below slot, and he collected five hits (including two doubles) in his first nine at bats at short season State College, also adding two walks.

7-215: RHP Jack Ralston (UCLA, unranked)
While Rangers second rounder Ryan Garcia got most of the attention as UCLA's ace, it was actually Jack Ralston who led the #1 regular season team in the country in innings pitched. He came out of nowhere this year, too, as he redshirted his true freshman season in 2016, did not pitch during his redshirt-freshman season in 2017, then posted a 6.44 ERA and an 18/14 strikeout to walk ratio during his redshirt-sophomore season in 2018. Still, he was talented enough to earn a stint in the Cape Cod League, where he had a 7.11 ERA and walked six batters over 6.1 innings. However, everything clicked and then some in 2019, as the 6'6" righty posted a 2.66 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 110/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.1 innings, including a 2.21 ERA in conference play in a tough Pac-12. He's a fastball/curveball guy with the former sitting in the low 90's and the latter being a true plus pitch, though he lacks much of a changeup. His command improved significantly this year and is now closer to average, though he still has a lot of moving parts and long arm action in his delivery. Realistically, he's probably a fastball/curveball reliever that could be very effective in short stints, though he has plenty of arm strength and projectability and the Cardinals could conceivably help him succeed as a #3 or #4 starter if a) he improves his changeup and b) he maintains the strides he has made with his command. Ralston is young for his class so despite being in his fourth year at UCLA, he doesn't turn 22 until August. He signed at slot for $204,800.

25-755: RHP Alex McFarlane (Habersham Central HS [GA], my rank: 114)
McFarlane was talented enough to go in the top five rounds, but signability away from his Miami commitment knocked him down to the 25th. He grew up in the U.S. Virgin Islands, but moved to the mountains of Northeast Georgia for his senior year of high school. McFarlane is a 6'3" righty with variable fastball velocity, sitting in the low 90's at his best but dipping to the high 80's both late in games and late in the season. His slider flashes plus at times but also lacks consistency, and he has a changeup that needs work. He is extremely athletic and has a quick arm, but he needs to get more efficient with his delivery and that in turn could help him add more power to his stuff. McFarlane, like many high schoolers, comes with a high ceiling and a low floor, and we'll likely find out more about that in Coral Gables over the next three seasons.

37-1115: OF Chris Newell (Malvern Prep HS [PA], my rank: 89)
Like McFarlane, Newell could have been a top five round or even top three round pick, but signability away from Virginia caused him to fall to the 37th. Newell is an athletic outfielder from the Philadelphia area with plenty of tools. He has an uppercut swing that produces above average power from a 6'2" frame, though he has some questions about his hit tool that will need to be addressed at the next level, which will likely be the ACC. He also has some speed and should be able to handle center field, taking some pressure off his bat. He and McFarlane will face each other in ACC play over the next three years and will be eligible again in 2022.

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