2019 Draft Review: Washington Nationals

First five rounds: Jackson Rutledge (1-17), Drew Mendoza (3-94), Matt Cronin (4-123), Tyler Dyson (5-153)
Also notable: Jackson Cluff (6-183), Jeremy Ydens (8-243), Kevin Strohschein (21-633), Bryce Osmond (35-1053), Trei Cruz (37-1113)

The Nationals lost their second round pick and their extra fourth round compensation pick (for Bryce Harper) after signing Patrick Corbin, but they still managed to put together a very talented draft class that leaned on college and junior college players, as they waited until the 23rd round to pop a high schooler. Aside from sticking to the college side, there is no overriding theme in this class, as three of their first four picks were pitchers but they still grabbed their share of hitters. I'm a big fan of the Jackson Rutledge selection in the first round and I think he can be a true-impact pitcher in Washington, and grabbing Matt Cronin at slot in the fourth round was a good move as well.

1-17: RHP Jackson Rutledge (San Jacinto JC, my rank: 14)
Since taking Anthony Rendon sixth overall in 2011, the Nationals took a pitcher with their first pick in five of seven drafts from 2012-2018 and made it six of eight drafts by grabbing Rutledge in 2019. Rutledge was a highly regarded draft prospect out of a St. Louis high school in 2017, but the lanky righty elected to attend Arkansas instead, where he missed a lot of time with a hip injury and ultimately decided to transfer to San Jacinto Community College in Houston for his sophomore season. As it turned out, it was the best decision he could have made, as he posted a 0.87 ERA, a matching 0.87 WHIP, and a 134/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.2 innings as he utterly dominated Texas JuCo hitters. He finally figured out his 6'8" frame and used it to toss mid 90's fastballs and a pair of breaking balls that can both be plus at times. He still needs to work on his changeup, but the fact that he already has two above average breaking balls in a slider and a curveball will buy him some time on that front. He also needs to get more consistent with his command, which is expected for a 6'8" pitcher who turned 20 during the season, but overall, he's only a couple of improvements away from being a #1 or #2 starter. Even if his command never quite gets up to average, he could still be a solid #3 or #4 starter or a power reliever. The Nationals will probably take it slow with him, but with his combination of velocity and stuff, he should be a real impact pitcher down the road. He signed for $3.45 million, which was $160,000 below slot.

3-94: 3B Drew Mendoza (Florida State, my rank: 63)
Mendoza was considered a fringe-first round pick coming out of high school outside of Orlando in 2016 and ranked 27th on my list, but he was unsignable and instead packed it up for Florida State. He's been up and down but has generally improved throughout his time there, though after three years, he didn't make quite the progress some evaluators were hoping for. This year, he slashed .308/.471/.594 with 16 home runs and a 72/70 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games against fairly tough competition, and a few things about the numbers immediately jump out to you. Firstly, he hits for plenty of power, though the 6'5", 230 pound slugger uses more strength than bat speed to generate that power. He also strikes out a ton, 24.2% of the time this year, which will make it tougher for him to get to that power in pro ball. On the plus side, he has a patient approach and walked in 23.6% of his plate appearances, with those 70 walks finishing second in all of Division I to only Adley Rutschman's 76. So, when you put the package together, you get a big, strong slugger who performed in the ACC with power and a high on-base percentage, but strikeouts and a lack of bat speed draw him down and make him a risky profile. At best, that means he could hit 25-30 home runs annually with low batting averages but enough walks to make up for that, though he has significant risk of ending up a platoon bat. Defensively, he's just decent at third base and may have to move to first base if he slows down at all with age. He signed for $800,000, which was $181,800 above slot.

4-123: LHP Matt Cronin (Arkansas, my rank: 96)
After going for somewhat of a wild card in Drew Mendoza, the Nationals picked up a pretty safe bet in Matt Cronin, a reliever for Arkansas who has a pretty clear path ahead of him. The 6'3" lefty from near Pensacola had a good year out of the Razorback bullpen, posting a 1.86 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 42/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 innings. Cronin sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, which generates high spin rates, and gets plenty of swings and misses with his plus curveball, though he lacks a changeup at this point and as a reliever, he may not need one. He also struggles with command, and while he's not "wild," per se, he's not one of those guys that can spot his pitches where he wants them consistently. That limits his ceiling and makes his outlook more that of a set-up man than a closer, though being a lefty certainly boosts his stock. Overall, look for Cronin to move quickly and be a solid left handed arm in the Nationals bullpen soon, though for those wondering, I doubt he'd be ready to help out this year after Arkansas' run to the College World Series. He signed at slot for $464,500.

5-153: RHP Tyler Dyson (Florida, my rank: 133)
Like Cronin, Tyler Dyson has a reliever outlook, but while Cronin has clear strengths and weaknesses and doesn't have too much variance in his potential outcomes, Dyson is just the opposite. The Bradenton, Florida native (the Nats' third straight Florida native selected) was up and down over his first two seasons at Florida, but a strong run through the Cape Cod League (2.37 ERA, 23/9 K/BB in 19 IP) put him on the fringes of the first round discussion coming into the spring. If he could have built off his Cape success with a strong junior season in the Gators rotation, he could have pushed himself towards the middle of the first round, but his stuff regressed and he was bumped out of the rotation. Dyson finished with a 4.95 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 34/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 43.2 innings, hardly a stat line that will catch anyone's eye, and he fell to the fifth round. Now with the Nationals, Dyson has an opportunity to build himself back up with pro coaching. He sits in the mid 90's with his straight fastball and flashed a plus slider on the Cape, but the slider regressed during the season and without much of a changeup or movement on the fastball, his velocity played down and ultimately led to his struggles. Like Cronin, his command is a little below average, and he likely heads to the bullpen. However, if the Nationals can get his slider working again and help him develop a changeup, he has a shot to be a back-end starter, and if not, he pitched well in relief as a freshman at Florida (3.23 ERA, 47/10 K/BB). He signed for $500,000, which was $153,200 above slot.

6-183: SS Jackson Cluff (Brigham Young, unranked)
Cluff is listed as a sophomore, but his two-year Mormon mission means he turned 22 in December and is the age of a college senior. The Boise-area native had a triumphant return to the field this season, slashing .327/.458/.518 with four home runs and a 39/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games. He features some bat wrap and not much power, but his quick hands make up for the bat wrap and help him spray line drives and extra base hits around the field, while his strong plate discipline makes him a consistent hitter. He's solid defensively and should stick at shortstop, taking some pressure off his bat, and he has some speed and baserunning instincts that allowed him to go 12-12 in stolen base attempts this year. Overall, he projects as a fast-moving utility infielder. He signed for $200,000, which was $66,000 below slot, and he's slashing a respectable .269/.424/.308 with seven strikeouts to five walks over his first eight games at Class A Hagerstown.

8-243: OF Jeremy Ydens (UCLA, unranked)
Because Ydens (pronounced eye-dens I believe) missed most of 2019 with a broken finger, the Nationals could be getting a top-five rounds talent here in the eighth. The Silicon Valley native slashed .350/.421/.558 as a sophomore at UCLA in 2018 before going on to slash .304/.347/.432 with three home runs and a 29/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games on the Cape, but in just 23 games around the broken finger in 2019, he slashed .273/.354/.443 with three home runs and a 24/8 strikeout to walk ratio. He has a clean swing from the right side that produces moderate power but which is more focused on driving balls into the gaps, which helps him build up large numbers of extra base hits. His plate discipline is only so-so and he struck out in 19.5% of his plate appearances in his healthy sophomore season before jumping to 23.8% around the injury this year, so pro ball might be a bit of a transition for him, but if he can make that jump while regaining his sophomore/Cape Cod League form, he could be a solid fourth outfielder or even a decent regular at his best. He signed at slot for $169,500, and so far he has one hit in seven at bats over his first two games at short season Auburn.

21-633: OF Kevin Strohschein (Tennessee Tech, unranked)
Going off raw numbers alone, perhaps no player has produced more offense over the last five seasons as Tennessee Tech's Kevin Strohschein. He had his best season as a freshman in 2016 when he slashed .393/.447/.707 with 15 home runs, then followed that up with a .292/.351/.511 line and 14 home runs as a sophomore before slashing .375/.433/.650 with 18 home runs as the centerpiece to Tennessee Tech's insane 2018 lineup that made a run all the way to the Austin Super Regional (college baseball's equivalent of the Sweet 16). As a senior this year, the Atlanta-area native slashed .382/.447/.691 with 15 home runs and a 45/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games, finishing his career with an unreal stat line: 62 home runs, 246 RBI, .359/.418/.636 line in 234 games. Now, he lasted until the 21st round because unfortunately, his game is more suited for the college level than for pro baseball. Strohschein played at Tennessee Tech, a hitter-friendly stadium in a hitter-friendly conference, and the Ohio Valley Conference isn't the toughest competition out there anyways. He has plenty of power, but he may struggle to get to it in pro ball because of his so-so plate discipline, and his defense is just average and he's coming off Tommy John surgery. He has a chance to hit his way up as a fourth or fifth outfielder, but don't expect a starting outfielder here in the 21st round, though he is young for a college senior with a July birthday. He signed for $10,000 and has three singles in twelve at bats over his first three games in the complex-level Gulf Coast League.

35-1053: RHP Bryce Osmond (Jenks HS [OK], my rank: 53)
Osmond was easily the best prospect in the state of Oklahoma this year, but his high asking price knocked him down from a potential Day One selection to the 35th round. Since the Nationals don't have enough money left in their bonus pool to go over slot and sign him away from Oklahoma State, we'll see more of what Osmond can do for the Cowboys, not the Nationals, and we'll check back in on him in 2022. The Tulsa-area native has a premium arm that fires low 90's fastballs and a good slider from a projectable 6'3" frame, but he's raw at the moment and tends to lose his velocity as the game goes on. With that projectable body, though, some added strength could go a long ways into helping him hold that velocity and add more power to his slider, which gives him high upside. Like most high schoolers, he needs to work on his changeup and get more consistent with his command, though neither is a red flag at this point. Three good years in Stillwater, or at least a good junior season, could push him into the first round in 2022.

37-1113: SS Trei Cruz (Rice, unranked)
Cruz probably isn't signing either, as his talent level put him in Day Two discussion, and he slashed .305/.393/.519 with nine home runs and a 54/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games as a draft-eligible sophomore at Rice this season. The Houston native turns 21 in July, making him just barely old enough to be drafted this year, and he shows a broad skill set that helps him impact the game in a variety of ways. Cruz has some power and sprays line drives around the field, and while his strikeout rates are a bit high, he's done a good job of getting on base for the Owls. There is a lot of hand movement before his swing, so cutting down on that may help him cut down his strikeouts. He played shortstop this year, but he's so-so there and will likely move over to second base in pro ball, where he should be above average. Cruz is the son of Jose Cruz Jr., who played twelve years in the majors and had his best success with the Blue Jays from 1997-2002, and the grandson of Jose Cruz, who played nineteen years in the majors, mostly with the Astros in the 1970's and 1980's.