First five rounds: Cameron Cannon (2-43), Matthew Lugo (2-69), Ryan Zeferjahn (3-107), Noah Song (4-137), Jaxx Groshans (5-167)
Also notable: Wil Dalton (8-257), Stephen Scott (10-317), Sebastian Keene (11-347), Sammy Faltine (39-1187)
Because of a luxury tax penalty, the Red Sox' first pick (#33) was pushed back ten spots to #43, making them by far the last team to make a selection by far. Once they got a good balance of players from all over the diamond, though they focused more on safe-bet college players than on high-upside high school players. Overall, I think they did a good job and should feel pretty secure in getting at least some future big league talent in this group, and fourth rounder Noah Song and fifth rounder Jaxx Groshans could end up looking like particularly savvy picks if things break right in their development.
2-43: SS Cameron Cannon (Arizona, my rank: 76)
Because of the penalty, the Sox' first pick was actually the second pick of the second round, where they grabbed Arizona infielder Cameron Cannon. Cannon, a Phoenix-area native, has experience at second base, shortstop, and third base and he slashed an impressive .397/.478/.651 with eight home runs and a 29/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games as a junior. At 5'10", he probably won't hit 20 home runs in a season, but his strong plate discipline and ability to make hard contact bode well for him posting high on-base percentages. He won't be a slap hitter, either, as the whip in his swing helps him really drive the ball and adding some loft could get him to 10-15 home runs per season. Defensively, he fits best at second base but could probably handle shortstop in a pinch, and his grinder mentality should help his tools play up. Overall, he projects as a starting second baseman if he can add some power, and if not he should be a very fine utility infielder. Pick value here is $1.73 million but he may require less to sign.
2-69: SS Matthew Lugo (Carlos Beltran Academy [PR], my rank: 46)
Ironically ranked 30 spots higher than Cannon on my list (as well as 41 spots higher on MLB Pipeline and 20 spots higher on Baseball America), Matthew Lugo has a higher ceiling but comes with more risk, as is typical with high school players. Lugo is the top prospect from Puerto Rico this year and while he's been compared to Carlos Correa, I don't think that's accurate. He's a right handed hitter with a good approach to hitting, and he uses that approach to get good pitches to hit with his smooth right handed swing, one which already has some loft in it to generate power. His power is just average for now due to his skinny 6'1" frame, but he has the build and swing to eventually hit 20 home runs annually in a best case scenario to go along with strong on-base percentages. Defensively, he'll probably have to move off shortstop, either to second base or third base. Overall, he projects as a starting infielder who could be a dynamic, although likely not true-impact, threat somewhere just outside the middle of the order. Slot value is just under $929,800, but with a Miami commitment, he may require a hair more than that.
3-107: RHP Ryan Zeferjahn (Kansas, my rank: 57)
This is a good pick in my opinion. Zeferjahn has been well-known among scouts since his high school days in Topeka, where he could have been picked in a similar range, and not much has changed about his profile since then, good or bad. After a mediocre freshman year and an inconsistent sophomore season, Zeferhahn was similarly inconsistent in 2019 but stepped it up just a bit, posting a 3.97 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 107/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.1 innings. He's a 6'4" righty that flashes the same great stuff he had as a high schooler, and that enabled him to strike out 14 against a strong Oklahoma State lineup on April 13th. At his best, Zeferjahn throws in the mid 90's and adds a swing and miss slider, but too often his mechanics break down and he struggles to find the strike zone, making him more hittable than he should be. He's clearly talented enough to be a mid-rotation starter if Boston can get his mechanics ironed out, but he runs a significant risk of being demoted to the bullpen, where he should be very effective with his fastball/slider combination. Slot value here is $543,500 and that sounds about right for him, though I'm a scout/analyst and not a reporter.
4-137: RHP Noah Song (Navy, my rank: 64)
I ranked Song 64th, but honestly, that shouldn't mean much because he's probably the most unique player in the draft, or at least finds himself in the most unique situation. Song finished his career as perhaps the greatest pitcher in Navy history and on talent alone, he probably would not have lasted until the Red Sox first pick at #43. Instead, he slid to 137th because he must serve two years in the Navy before pitching in pro ball. Already 22, that means that he will be 24 years old when the Red Sox can first get their hands on him, and only then will he get to begin the often arduous journey through the minors. Still, Song is the complete package as a pitcher. His fantastic senior season for the Midshipmen saw him go 11-1 with a 1.44 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 161/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings, striking out at least eight in all fourteen starts and topping out at sixteen K's against Cornell on March 9th. Beyond the performance, he's a 6'4" right hander with a low to mid 90's fastball, a full set of offspeeds led by a swing and miss slider, and solid command that enabled him to carve up the mediocre lineups he faced in the Patriot League. He projects as a very solid mid-rotation starter on talent alone, but it remains to be seen how the Navy commitment affects that. Slot value is $406,000 and he may sign for less.
5-167: C Jaxx Groshans (Kansas, unranked)
Sixty picks after taking Ryan Zeferjahn out of the University of Kansas, the Red Sox went back to Lawrence to grab his battery-mate, Jaxx Groshans. The older brother of 2018 Blue Jays first round pick Jordan Groshans, Jaxx had a breakout year for the Jayhawks by slashing .340/.475/.604 with 12 home runs and a 40/53 strikeout to walk ratio, showing a complete offensive package for this part of the draft. He has power from a quick barrel and has shown plenty of patience to draw walks, and while he does strike out some, it's not enough to cause alarm. Defensively, he is working hard to remain behind the plate, and while he will likely never be better than average back there, he has a real shot at it. If he does, he should be at least an offensive-minded backup if not a starter who can hit 15-20 home runs per season with good enough on-base percentages, though he'll have to really take well to pro pitching for the latter to happen. If he has to move off catcher, the pressure will really be on his bat, though he's fairly young for a college junior and that works in his favor when it comes to future projection. Slot value here is $304,200.
8-257: OF Wil Dalton (Florida, unranked)
Dalton transferred to Florida from Columbia State Community College in Tennessee, then slashed .262/.338/.542 with 19 home runs as a sophomore in 2018, then put up a very different year in 2019. As a junior this year, the Tennessee native slashed .262/.381/.466 with eight home runs and a 40/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games, bumping up his on-base percentage while also cutting his strikeout rate – and his power. Dalton is not a contact hitter, so while cutting his strikeout rate to bump that OBP up to .381 may have been nice for the Gators, he'll need to hit for power if he wants to reach his ceiling as a strong fourth outfielder for the Red Sox. Slot value is $159,700.
10-317: OF Stephen Scott (Vanderbilt, unranked)
In the tenth round, the Red Sox grabbed Vanderbilt senior Stephen Scott, who has gotten better and better throughout his time in Nashville. The Raleigh native is at the tail end of a strong senior season for the Commodores in which he has slashed .335/.456/.579 with 11 home runs and a 58/42 strikeout to walk ratio through 60 games, with super regionals still to come. He actually caught for Vanderbilt as a junior (while hitting 15 home runs with a .420 on-base percentage), though he's in the outfield this year and that's where the Red Sox will use him. He's a shorter guy at 5'11" and he comes with some swing and miss questions, but he's patient at the plate and has some loft in his left handed swing which could help him compete with Dalton as a future fourth outfielder in Boston. Slot value is $142,200, but as a senior, he will likely sign for significantly less.
11-347: RHP Sebastian Keene (North Andover HS [MA], unranked)
With separate rules for Day Three selections, the Red Sox took a chance on Sebastian Keene, a high school right hander who grew up less than 30 miles from Fenway Park in North Andover, Massachusetts. After the first couple of rounds, all these projectable high school pitchers can start to run together, especially if you don't see them in person, but Keene fits right into that mold. He's 6'3" but listed at just 170 pounds, currently sitting around 90 with his fastball while adding a pretty decent breaking ball from a crossfire delivery. He's almost entirely projection at this point, but he's very athletic and could develop into a very good pitcher in the Red Sox system if he's signable away from his Northeastern commitment. It will take more than the $125,000 allotted here to sign Keene, but the Red Sox will hope to use their savings on Scott and others to bring him on board.
39-1187: RHP Sammy Faltine (Travis HS [TX], my rank: 85)
Faltine, who I have seen listed as Sammy, Trey, Tre, and Sanson, more than likely won't sign here, but he's one of the most interesting players in the draft. If a super-utility player can play all infield and outfield positions, then Faltine is a mega-utility player. He was drafted as a pitcher, but when he goes on to Texas (assuming the Red Sox don't get him a big time bonus), he'll be a two-way player who can play anywhere on the diamond and who is a legitimate prospect both ways. Faltine is a natural athlete from the Houston area whose exceptional feel for the game helps him effectively handle any position, though he might not be quite fast enough to stick in center field or at shortstop in the long run. At the plate, he has a line drive swing and very good feel for the barrel, though he doesn't presently hit for much power. On the mound, the 6'3" righty sits around 90 with his fastball while showing a full array of secondary pitches, good command, and good arm speed, giving him all the starter traits he needs to stick in the rotation. Giving up pitching might help him add some power and be a dynamic threat at the plate, while giving up hitting should help him bump up his velocity and become a true starting pitching prospect. We'll see how it goes in Austin.
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