2022 MLB Draft Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

Full list of draftees

The Pirates made a huge splash by drafting potential superstar Termarr Johnson fourth overall, then fell back onto a very pitching-heavy strategy that included 15.5 pitchers (Jack Brannigan is a two-way player) over their remaining 20 picks. They targeted a wide variety, from power armed, likely relievers like Brannigan, J.P. Massey, and Cy Nielson to more polished starter types like Thomas Harrington, Hunter Barco, and Michael Kennedy. Athleticism was a big theme here for many.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-4: SS Termarr Johnson, Mays HS [GA]. My rank: #3.
Slot value: $7.01 million. Signing bonus: $7.22 million ($213,200 above slot value).
It is very, very easy to dream on Termarr Johnson as a future superstar for the Pirates. Long one of the most famous names in the high school class, he may have been the victim of prospect fatigue this spring as the conversation moved from the top five range to more of the 4-10 range, but by giving him more than seven million dollars to sign at fourth overall, Pittsburgh clearly stayed on him. We're talking about one of the most advanced young hitters we have seen in a long time, one that could reach the majors well before he turns 21. Johnson is an extremely disciplined hitter that takes some of the most professional at bats in the class, looking right at home in the box against the top pitchers in the class. Meanwhile, he puts his barrel on virtually everything he swings at, and if you need proof, here he is barreling up a baseball in the opposite batter's box. It all amounts to a double-plus hit tool that could be 80 grade in time. He's not just a slap hitter, though. Johnson possesses very real, plus power despite standing just 5'9", generating a huge amount of torque and lift from a rotational swing and a very strong lower half and quick wrists. Together, it could amount to 30+ home runs a year with very high on-base percentages, which would be perennial All Star caliber. My only concern with the offensive profile is very, very slight, the true definition of a nitpick, but the barrel isn't in the zone for all that long because he cocks the bat a little before swinging, has a little uppercut, and possesses at ton of bat speed that has the bat here and gone in a flash. But really, everything else about his hit tool is so strong that it's virtually moot. Defensively, he's probably not quite explosive enough to stick at shortstop, but he's very smooth on the dirt and could profile as an above average second baseman that makes all of the routine plays if he doesn't slow down at all. When you're handing out $7 million-plus signing bonuses, playing a premium defensive position like catcher, shortstop, or center field is often a priority, but Johnson's bat is so strong that the Pirates or more than happy to overlook it. For an MLB comp, we can go with peak Daniel Murphy but with better defense and potentially more power if the Atlanta native reaches his ceiling. He's off to a slow start to his pro career, slashing .125/.256/.188 with a 10/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 games, but he only just turned 18 in June.

CBA-36: RHP Thomas Harrington, Campbell. My rank: #44.
Slot value: $2.15 million. Signing bonus: $2.05 million ($100,300 below slot value).
Thomas Harrington was one of the higher profile risers this spring, and the Pirates will happily grab him in the competitive balance round for below slot value. Lightly recruited out of his North Carolina high school, Harrington walked onto the baseball team at Campbell just up the road from his hometown and immediately found success as a true freshman in the rotation. He took it to another level in 2022, posting a 2.54 ERA and a 111/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 92.2 innings and going at least six innings in every single start except for one, and he was only pulled from the one due to a lengthy rain delay. Harrington is one of the most balanced pitchers in the class with very few weaknesses. His fastball has steadily ticked up and now sits in the low 90's with a peak around 96, and he follows it up with a deep arsenal. His slider, curveball, and changeup are all consistently at least average, often above average and occasionally plus, and together they helped him strike out 30% of his opponents. The 6'2" righty's best attribute is his plus command, which helps him execute all of those average to above average pitches with precision and rarely ever hurt himself with walks. It's a very clear starting pitching profile that should move quickly through the minors, and while he may not be an ace, he has a very good chance to be a #3. He's durable, he only turned 21 shortly before the draft, and it's very hard to find any holes in his game.

2-44: LHP Hunter Barco, Florida. My rank: #74.
Slot value: $1.78 million. Signing bonus: $1.53 million ($251,100 below slot value).
While few scouts knew Thomas Harrington's name out of high school, Hunter Barco was one of the most famous prospects in his high school class, earning even some first round interest. He made it to campus at Florida, had a couple of very good but unspectacular seasons as an underclassman, then looked like he was breaking out with a 2.50 ERA and a 69/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 50.1 innings this spring. Unfortunately, he left a mid April start against Vanderbilt with an elbow injury and wound up succumbing to Tommy John surgery, so we won't see him pitch until mid 2023. Still, there is plenty to like. Barco has had inconsistent fastball velocity throughout his amateur career, touching 96-97 on some days and sitting around 90 on others, coming from a lower slot albeit with average life. His plus, sweeping slider is his best pitch, missing a ton of bats as it dives across the plate. He also throws an above average split change to round out his arsenal, giving him a very solid three pitch mix when the fastball velocity is there. The Jacksonville native is aggressive on the mound and pounds the strike zone, leading to low walk rates, though his in-zone command can be inconsistent. He was at his best throughout throughout out 2022 and it looked like he was putting it all together until he got hurt, and all things considered, it's not the worst time to get the surgery since he obviously isn't ready to contribute to the big league club anyways. The 6'4" lefty also brings plenty of projection to the table with an ideal pitcher's frame, and as he gets stronger post-surgery, the Pirates believe he'll be touching the mid 90's much more regularly. It's a high probability #3/#4 starter profile with a floor as a very solid three pitch reliever.

3-83: 3B/RHP Jack Brannigan, Notre Dame. My rank: #184.
Slot value: $770,700. Signing bonus: $770,700.
Jack Brannigan was ranked #164 by MLB Pipeline, #168 by Baseball America, #182 by Prospects Live, and #184 on my board, so it's safe to say this is much earlier than most thought he would go. Not only that, but the Pirates drafted him as a two-way player, so this will be loads of fun to watch. Brannigan (who by the way has to have the most Notre Dame name of all time) has more experience as a hitter, but the talent is equally intriguing on both sides of the ball and I'll admit I may have been too low on him with my ranking. Starting with the bat, he had an up and down 2022 season and slashed .291/.360/.540 with 12 home runs and a 49/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games, showing off big physical tools but not always the ability to tap them in games. Although he's a bit undersized at 6', 190 pounds, he's quietly one of the best athletes in the class, not just with above average speed but with his natural ability to just move well on the diamond. There is above average power in the tank due both to his strength as well as that natural athleticism and ability to channel that strength, though his swing can get swoopy leading to some swing and miss concerns. He can sometimes struggle with breaking balls and overall is just not consistent with his hit tool. This could be a case of giving up pitching and finding more rhythm in the box, where his natural ability could take over and make him a 20+ home run hitter with decent on-base percentages. Over at third base, he has a chance to be a plus defender there with an absolute cannon of a right arm and the aforementioned athleticism that touches every part of his game. On the mound, he's considerably more raw and has thrown just 23.1 innings over three years at Notre Dame, but he could throw a lot more than that with Pittsburgh. After pitching sparingly in 2020 and 2021, he took on a slightly larger role in 2022 and posted a 7.93 ERA and a 28/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 14.2 innings out of the bullpen. The fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and can touch triple digits at his best, with plenty of arm side run to miss barrels. He adds a rapidly improving slider that is starting to flash plus when he commands it, and he's worked to add a changeup as well. The Chicago-area native has seen his command improve from perhaps 30 grade to 40 grade, which is still comfortably below average but playable. He doesn't need good command with his stuff, just enough to get strike one and elicit chases. With long arm action and that below average command, he's almost certainly a reliever long term unless he gave up hitting right away and focused exclusively on stretching out, which I don't see happening. He hasn't pitched yet in the minors, but he is slashing .250/.366/.400 with two home runs and a 19/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Bradenton. 

4-110: LHP Michael Kennedy, Troy HS [NY]. My rank: #92.
Slot value: $554,800. Signing bonus: $1 million ($445,200 above slot value).
Michael Kennedy is a very interesting prospect that you might miss if you're not watching closely, as he's had a bit less exposure up in Upstate New York and doesn't throw particularly hard. Kennedy sits in the low 90's with his fastball, topping out around 94 and occasionally dipping into the upper 80's, so he does need to add velocity. He flips in an above average, sweepy slider and shows solid feel for his changeup, giving him a good three pitch mix but not one that will stand out among pro prospects. He has a fairly stocky build at 6'1", 205 pounds that lacks projection, but he's a better athlete than you might think and moves very well on the mound. With a crossfire delivery, he gets down the mound with good extension and gets a low release height on his pitches, making them play up. Additionally, the Albany-area native pounds the strike zone with above average command and works those pitches well off each other, making for a very solid all-around product. Now in the Pirates system, it's time to focus on sharpening up his stuff and adding velocity, which I believe he'll do. Throw in that he's extremely young for the class and won't even turn 18 until after Thanksgiving, and you have a kid who could develop into a very solid #3 starter in time.

5-140: OF Tres Gonzalez, Georgia Tech. My rank: #157.
Slot value: $414,600. Signing bonus: $347,500 ($67,100 below slot value).
Tres Gonzalez brings a bit of an old school profile here, a hit-over-power type that could reach the majors quickly. After battering elite Cape Cod League pitching with a barrage of singles last summer, he did the same in the ACC this spring and slashed .339/.458/.474 with five home runs and a 27/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games. He's an extremely disciplined hitter that just looks too advanced to be playing college baseball, managing the strike zone as well as anybody in the class and doing so even against elite arms. He also has excellent bat to ball skills, which combined with that approach led to a sub-10% strikeout rate this spring, spraying line drives around the field with a loose, quick swing. Listed at 5'11", 185 pounds, he is not overly physical and does not project for much power at all, and instead will rely on posting high on-base percentages with plenty of singles, doubles, and walks. A plus runner, he'll be able to make the most of those balls he puts in the gaps. The Atlanta-area native played left field for Georgia Tech but might be able to cut it in center field at least in a part time role. That's important, because with his fringy arm, it's hard to profile in left in any role if you can't hit for power. If he does stick in center, there's an outside chance he can play every day if everything else translates up, but the most likely projection is that of a fourth outfielder that gets on base at a high clip. So far, he's slashing .333/.407/.375 with a 7/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 14 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Bradenton.

6-170: RHP Derek Diamond, Mississippi. My rank: #187.
Slot value: $311,600. Signing bonus: $311,600.
Derek Diamond has been an interesting prospect throughout his time at Ole Miss, but it's hard to know what to make of him. He jumped into the Rebels' rotation right away as a true freshman in 2020 and showed well, then battled through an up and down 2021 season to still make 20 appearances (14 starts) and throw 75.1 innings. 2022 was more down than up, as he posted a 6.89 ERA and a 57/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.1 innings, mostly as a starter, but barely pitched in the postseason as manager Mike Bianco chose to put his faith in more consistent arms. Just as it was looking like he would fall out of day two consideration, he showed very well in pre-draft bullpens and got teams interested again. Diamond can touch 97 with riding action on his fastball but, like Hunter Barco, doesn't always hold that velocity and can dip into the upper 80's. His slider and changeup both flash above average, but again, are inconsistent. The 6'2" righty stands out best for his athleticism on the mound, enabling him to repeat his delivery extremely well and show consistently above average command, which is why he's managed to stick as a starter all this time. When the fastball is around 90 and the secondaries aren't biting, no amount of command is going to make that work, but the stuff he's shown at his peak including just before the draft absolutely will. The Pirates will want to help build up Diamond's stamina to help get him more consistent with his stuff, and if it clicks, it's hard not to like a plus command arm that gets up into the mid 90's with two quality secondaries. He's off to a strong start in the Florida Complex League, tossing four shutout innings on three hits and one walk while striking out four in three relief appearances.

7-200: RHP J.P. Massey, Minnesota. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $243,000. Signing bonus: $150,000 ($93,000 below slot value).
Big Ten evaluators have been waiting for a J.P. Massey breakout for some time, but haven't gotten it just yet. He was draft eligible as a junior in 2021, but walked 33 batters in 20 innings and returned to school. While you can't call it a breakout, he did get himself figured out a little bit in 2022, holding down a rotation spot and posting a 6.52 ERA and a 63/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.1 innings. It's odd to say this about a 22 year old college senior, but Massey is a projection play. His fastball currently sits in the low 90's and touches the mid 90's at best, and he adds a slew of secondaries in a slider, curveball, and changeup that are all extremely inconsistent but show promise. Throw on below average command stemming from troubles with his mechanics, and you have yourself a project. But Massey is listed at 6'5", 205 pounds with great athleticism and moves very naturally on the mound, so scouts continued to come back and watch his starts even as he struggled to a career 6.70 ERA and 17.1% walk rate over four years at Minnesota. The Chicago native does have feel for spin as well on top of his natural athleticism, and a change of scenery away from Minneapolis and into a pro development system might finally help him pull it all together. It's probably a relief profile though unless the Pirates can work some miracles.

8-230: LHP Cy Nielson, Brigham Young. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $193,200. Signing bonus: $175,000 ($18,200 below slot value).
Cy Nielson has been known for some time now as one of the more electric left handers in the Rocky Mountain region, and after walking 17.3% of his opponents in 2021, his command took a big step forward in 2022 as he dropped that number to 5.1%. The result was a 3.21 ERA and a 45/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.2 innings as a reliever, as well as some impressive outings in the Cape Cod League. Nielson sits in the low 90's with his fastball but can get up to 97, showing great riding action that helps him miss plenty of barrels. His slider is fairly inconsistent, but flashes above average and can be especially potent against left handed hitters from his crossfire delivery. The Utah native also adds a changeup and has gotten much more consistent with his delivery, making for a serious MLB relief candidate. He has some experience as a starter on the Cape, but it seems best for the Pirates to play it straight up and let his three pitch mix continue to eat in a relief role. If he can hold his command together and get more consistent with his secondary stuff, he could be a highly valuable left handed reliever in short order. So far, he has allowed three runs in 3.2 innings between the Florida Complex League and Low A Bradenton, with three strikeouts to four walks.

14-410: LHP Julian Bosnic, South Carolina. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
Julian Bosnic had significant day two interest in 2021, where he posted a 2.84 ERA and a 78/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 50.2 innings for South Carolina, but bet on himself and went back to school. Unfortunately, he wound up missing the entire 2022 season with an elbow injury, so he signed with the Pirates for $125,000 in the fourteenth round. Bosnic has big stuff, starting with an explosive low to mid 90's fastball that can get up to 97 with excellent riding life. He drops in a hammer curveball that plays extremely well off his fastball, giving him two potential plus pitches to work off while the changeup is a bit behind. As a nearly-23 year old two pitch guy who has never stuck around in a rotation for long, the 6'3" lefty has an uphill climb if he wants to start, though he does show enough command at his best to give it a shot if the Pirates are willing to be patient. More likely, though, is a future where he stays in the bullpen and maxes out that excellent fastball/curveball combination with enough command to make it work. Of course, the first step will be getting healthy.

2022 MLB Draft: Previewing the Nationals #5 Overall Pick (June Update)

The Nationals pick at #5 this year, their highest selection since their back to back first overall picks in 2009 and 2010, which means virtually every player should be under consideration here. In fact, the only player I can confidently say won't reach the Nationals is Atlanta-area high school outfielder Druw Jones, whose combination of plus power, considerable polish, and supreme athleticism make him the top prospect in the class. Everyone else, though, should be in play. I previewed ten options back in February then again in April, and now we'll give one more update on who Nationals fans should be looking for as the July 17th draft rapidly approaches.

The Nationals have a bonus pool of just over $11 million and a slot value of just under $6.5 million for their first round pick. They can spend as much or as little as they want in that first round, but are bound by that $11 million number for all of their picks combined, lest they start incurring penalties.

All rankings from my May 4th update. Some players have moved up or down since then.

C Kevin Parada, Georgia Tech. My rank: #5.
2022: 26 HR, .360/.453/.715, 11 SB, 31/30 K/BB in 59 games.
It's no secret that the Nationals have really locked in on Georgia Tech catcher Kevin Parada, and if the draft were today, it seems most likely that this would be the pick if he were available. Parada has some interest throughout the top five so that's no guarantee, but with plenty of other talent available (especially on the high school side), it's certainly possible and perhaps even likely. A product of the Los Angeles high school ranks, he drew second round interest back in 2020 but headed across the country to school and that has paid off, finishing his Yellow Jacket career with 35 home runs and a .340/.428/.630 slash line across 111 games. Ever since those prep days, Parada has stood out for his extremely professional at bats, showing a sublime ability to work counts, make adjustments, and use the whole field against premium pitching. The power, meanwhile, has ticked up steadily as he's matured, from above average as a high schooler to plus as a freshman to perhaps plus-plus as a sophomore, playing against strong ACC pitching and sending home runs out to all fields with ease. Between the power and the approach, there is very, very little to nitpick with the bat, especially considering he won't turn 21 until after the draft. Some may not like his unique setup, in which he holds his hands high above his head with the barrel pointed down his back as if he's trying to use it as a back scratcher, but he's always on time with his load and I have no problem with the setup. The glove isn't quite at the same level as the bat, but it is improving. He has an unremarkable arm and is not the most nimble backstop I've seen behind the plate, so a better defender like Keibert Ruiz, Drew Millas, or Israel Pineda (if the latter two's bats come along) could push him off the position. However, he is in a better place than he was two years ago as a prep and scouts love his work ethic, and I expect that the Nationals feel confident he will work hard enough to become an adequate defender. The upside here is an everyday big league catcher that can pop 30+ home runs per year while getting on base at a high clip. To put that in perspective, only two catchers (Salvador Perez and Mike Zunino) hit more than 25 home runs last year and neither had an on-base percentage above the league-wide average of .317. I do not expect that Parada would take a discount on his signing bonus given his age and interest throughout the top ten picks.

OF Elijah Green, IMG Academy [FL]. My rank: #3.
Druw Jones won't be available at the fifth overall pick, but the Nationals could get a shot at a player with similar or perhaps superior physical tools, but a bit less polish. Like Parada, Green has plenty of interest throughout the top five picks and there is no guarantee he is available, but if he does reach the Nationals, it's hard to see them passing on the upside. Green might have the loudest raw tools of any player in the class, showing off massive raw power, plus-plus speed, and tremendous arm strength from the outfield from a premium 6'3", 225 pound frame. And he's not raw, either. The Orlando-area native came out of the gate a bit slowly this spring and struck out more than evaluators would have like to have seen from a top of the draft prospect, but he righted the ship in a big way as the spring wore on and regained any stock that might have slipped in February and March. There is still some swing and miss, especially on fastballs up and breaking balls down and away like most young hitters, and his swing is more geared to do damage down in the zone. He'll likely always be a little streaky, but he's shown enough polish to make evaluators very comfortable that he'll be able to maximize those prodigious tools. There is true superstar upside here, perhaps more than any individual player in the Nationals' system right now. With a Miami commitment in hand and quite a few teams competing to get him into their system, Green will not come cheap and I doubt the $6.5 million slot value will be enough to put a curly W on his hat.

OF Gavin Cross, Virginia Tech. My rank: #7.
2022: 17 HR, .328/.411/.660, 12 SB, 41/30 K/BB in 57 games.
While Parada and Green may be gone when the fifth overall pick rolls around, Gavin Cross will most likely be there. They have shown heavy interest in Cross and could be tempted by one of the best bats in the class. Cross hits the ball as hard as anybody in the class, regularly posting elite exit velocities virtually every time he comes up to hit. He has always shown the ability to track and recognize pitches, but in the past he was prone to chasing anyways simply because he was an aggressive hitter. This year, he's done a much better job of choosing the pitches he can do damage with, and the result has been a decreased strikeout rate (20.5% to 14.6%) and an increased walk rate (7.3% to 10.7%). That makes him a much more complete hitter, and one who could move fairly quickly through the Nationals' system. With his huge power, the Bristol native profiles as a middle of the order thumper who can hit 30+ home runs per year with good on-base percentages, close to the same projection as Parada. He played right field last year but moved to center field for the Hokies this season and showed well with average range and a plus arm, so even though he'll likely move back to right in pro ball, he should be above average there. Unlike Parada and Green, Cross may not require full slot value to sign here as most of his interest is in the back half of the top ten rather than the front half.

2B Termarr Johnson, Mays HS [GA]. My rank: #2.
Though he's one of the most famous names in the class and has been talked about near the top of the draft for a long time, Termarr Johnson is one of the harder names to pinpoint as teams will likely have diverging opinions. Johnson really made a name for himself on the showcase circuit by hitting everything in sight, but in a league that values recency, he didn't have much of a chance to build on his already robust resume this spring. Elijah Green hit very well against top competition in Florida, Druw Jones did the same in the Atlanta suburbs, and Jackson Holliday set the world on fire against more average competition in northern Oklahoma, while Johnson saw average competition in the city of Atlanta. Still, the whole package is very very enticing. Standing just 5'9", he has elite bat to ball skills and the same can be said about his eye at the plate, making it very, very difficult to get anything by him. Despite the smaller frame, he generates great torque from a rotational swing and those highest on him believe he could hit for plus power on top of his .400+ on-base percentages. While he's renowned for the bat, Johnson can flash the leather a little bit with smooth actions on the infield, but he's not quite explosive enough to handle shortstop and will likely fit in at second base going forward. This is generational talent when it comes to the hit tool, so if teams at the top of the draft believe there is 25+ home run power in the tank as well, he could go well before the Nationals pick at #5. However, if those same teams opt to go with more explosive athletes like Jones, Green, and Holliday that offer a little more upside, Johnson may fit closer to the back of the top ten. He committed to Arizona State very late in the process and may fit in right around slot value for the Nationals, perhaps a few ticks above.

3B Cam Collier, Chipola JC [FL]. My rank: #14.
2022: 8 HR, .333/.419/.537, 5 SB, 33/25 K/BB in 52 games.
Cam Collier is looking like a very similar prospect to Termarr Johnson at this point, and with my most recent rankings having come out over a month ago, that #14 is inaccurate. When the draft rolls around, he'll almost certainly have a single digit number next to his name if he keeps hitting on the Cape like he has. Collier was supposed to be a high school junior this year at Mount Paran Christian High School in the Atlanta area, but he graduated two years early to enroll at Chipola Junior College in the Florida Panhandle this spring. Despite having just turned 17 in November, he slashed .333/.419/.537 against some of the best JuCo pitching in the country and struck out just 15.3% of the time, an extraordinary feat for someone so young. Professional hitter doesn't even begin to describe Collier, who recognizes all kinds of pitches and uses the entire field with ease even against pitchers two to three years his senior. While he still has plenty of time to develop physically, he already packs a lot of compact strength into his 6'2" frame and can really drive the baseball, enough so that with his barrel accuracy he should be able to provide 20+ home runs a year in the majors. Like Johnson, he's not quite an explosive athlete, but he plays a very solid third base and has a much stronger arm than his fellow Georgian, which should help him stick there. This is the highest floor you could possibly ask for from a 17 year old. If he can reach the majors by the end of 2024, he'll be the first teenager to play Major League Baseball since Elvis Luciano in 2019 and the first to do so without the aid of a Rule 5 fluke since Juan Soto in 2018. It won't be easy and I'm not saying it's likely, but it's certainly possible and he has the best odds in this class. He is getting more and more interest near the top of the draft, but because guys like Jones, Green, Holliday, and even Johnson have more upside, I'd say it's pretty likely he'll be available to the Nationals at pick #5. Committed to Louisville, he'll be draft eligible again at 20 years old and that may seem enticing if he doesn't get the bonus he wants, but Washington should still be able to grab him without going too far above slot.

SS Jackson Holliday, Stillwater HS [OK]. My rank: #6.
When I wrote my first article in February, Jackson Holliday was more likely to be the Nationals' second round pick than their first. When I wrote my April update, Holliday got a mention but I wrote that fifth overall might be a bit of a stretch. Now in June (and in fact not long after I wrote that first article), not only is fifth overall not a stretch, but there's a sizable chance he isn't even available when the Nationals pick (the Rangers are reportedly targeting him at third overall). Matt Holliday's son has exploded this spring into one of the best high school players in the country, tacking on significant strength and immediately deploying those physical gains into game power. He was already well-regarded for his approach at the plate and ability to find the barrel, so going from below average to above average power really completed the profile. Holliday is also a strong defender in the infield and has a chance to stick at shortstop, but even if he slows down a touch, his strong arm will make him an above average third baseman. The Nationals would get a complete package in Holliday who could team up with Brady House to form a mean left side of the infield for years to come. Committed to Oklahoma State to play for both his uncle and father, he will not be cheap in this spot and will likely require the Nationals to go well above slot value.

SS Brooks Lee, Cal Poly. My rank: #4.
2022: 15 HR, .357/.462/.664, 3 SB, 28/46 K/BB in 58 games.
Brooks Lee is another player who may not reach the Nationals, having received interest throughout the top of the draft and as high as the Orioles at #1. He has some of the best bat to ball skills in the entire class, striking out at just a 13.6% clip as a sophomore and then dropping it below 10% this year despite rarely getting much to hit. Lee was a very aggressive hitter early in his career, regularly chasing pitches out of the zone but still finding ways to make things happen and rarely swinging and missing. This year, he dialed it back significantly and forced pitchers to come to him, then punished them on the rare occasions that they did. The California native also possesses plus power from both sides of the plate, which is a scary thought for someone who makes as much contact as he does. He's really filled out since high school and looks like a physical specimen with plenty of compact strength in his 6'2" frame. On defense, he's a high IQ player that makes all the routine plays, though if he slows down at all as he ages, he'll be forced over to third base where his arm will still play. Despite being a college player, Lee has enough interest throughout the top of the draft that I expect he will require at least full slot value.

2B Jace Jung, Texas Tech. My rank: #8.
2022: 14 HR, .335/.481/.612, 5 SB, 42/59 K/BB in 61 games.
Jace Jung has received interest throughout the back half of the top ten, and he's every bit the hitter that Gavin Cross, Kevin Parada, and Brooks Lee are. He has absolutely demolished Big 12 pitching while at Texas Tech, slashing .336/.472/.653 with 35 home runs and far more walks (108) than strikeouts (87) in 117 games over the past two seasons. Jung has always been a very patient hitter that is happy to spit on junk out of the zone, which is mostly what he saw in college, forcing pitchers to come to him or simply taking his walks instead. Like Lee above him here, he punishes pitchers when they do come into that zone, with strong pitch recognition that allows him to put the barrel on the ball with regularity and drive it out to all fields. He records high exit velocities that translate into plus power in games, and he should be a relatively quick mover through the minors. His defense is unremarkable, with the ability to play an adequate second base or third base but nothing flashy, and he could be forced to first base if he's surrounded by better defenders. Still, the bat will profile anywhere, with the potential for 25+ home runs annually with high on-base percentages that will have him hitting in the middle of the lineup with a high degree of confidence. If he goes fifth overall, I doubt he will require the full slot value to sign and Washington could use that money later in the draft.

RHP Brock Porter, Orchard Lake St. Mary's HS [MI]. My rank: #19.
Pitching up in Michigan, Brock Porter came on strong later in the spring when it finally warmed up, and he'll probably see a slight bump up from that month-plus-old #19 ranking when my final rankings come out before the draft. While Dylan Lesko has long been considered the best prep pitcher in this class, his recent Tommy John surgery has clouded his draft stock and signability and allowed Porter to move into contention to be the first prep pitcher drafted. Porter throws as hard as any teenager in the country, comfortably sitting in the mid 90's and reaching back for 99-100 at his hottest. With plenty of arm strength, the Detroit-area high schooler holds that velocity deep into starts, and he gets some life on the pitch as well. Unlike most prep power pitchers, his go-to offspeed is a plus changeup with a ton of movement down in the zone, leaving high school hitters helpless and likely to do the same in pro ball. His breaking balls are a bit behind the fastball and changeup, but they've ticked up this spring with his curveball showing nice depth and his harder slider showing late snap. It's a truly enviable four pitch mix that is only trending upwards, and his clean, athletic delivery lends itself well to starting in the future even if it needs some minor touchups. While he's not pinpoint, the 6'4" righty fills up the strike zone and when you throw that hard, that's often enough. He's committed to Clemson and while high school pitchers are always expensive, I suspect that if the Nationals reach down the board a little bit for Porter, they can still get him to sign for well below slot value. He's older for a high school prospect having already turned 19, but the present stuff is so loud that that shouldn't matter too much.

Second Round Targets (pick #45, slot value $1.73 million)

Talking about the second round is just guesswork, but we know how the Nationals like to draft and we can at least highlight some options. I'll start with some money savers first in the case that Mike Rizzo goes above slot to land a player like Elijah Green or Jackson Holliday.

LHP Parker Messick, Florida State. My rank: #26.
2022: 3.38 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 144/18 K/BB in 98.2 innings.
I would love if the Nationals took Parker Messick in the second round, even if that #26 ranking has probably slipped a little since my May rankings update. Messick fits the Nationals' mold as a power conference performer with advanced pitchability and the ability to move quickly through the minors. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball, but it plays up because he hides the ball well from a deceptive delivery and because he can locate it. Messick flips in a couple of average breaking balls that he can land for strikes or use to generate chases, while his changeup has flashed plus and helps him rack up the strikeouts. Lastly, he's a dogged competitor on the mound that goes right after hitters with confidence.

RHP Jonathan Cannon, Georgia. My rank: #73.
2022: 4.02 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 68/12 K/BB in 78.1 innings.
Here is another arm that fits the same mold as a pitchability guy with strong performance in a power conference. Jonathan Cannon does not have loud stuff, but gets it done with some of the best command in the entire class having walked fewer than four percent of his opponents this spring. The lanky, 6'6" righty sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, having touched 97 in the past, but it's fairly straight and he needed to add a cutter this spring to get more movement and keep hitters off the fastball. He flashes an above average slider and changeup, and because he's constantly in pitcher's counts and hitting his spots, they play up. The Atlanta-area native turns 22 on Day Three of the draft and won't likely command a huge signing bonus in this spot, and he should move quickly through the minors as a #4 starter type.

RHP Ben Joyce, Tennessee. My rank: #110.
2022: 2.23 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 53/14 K/BB in 32.1 innings.
Ben Joyce isn't exactly the same type of pitcher as Messick or Cannon, but he still seems like a guy the Nationals would like given that they have not been shy about jumping on power conference relievers like Holden Powell, Reid Schaller, and Michael Kirian in the past. His #110 ranking is also not representative of where he is today, having moved up perhaps forty or so spots when I redo my rankings. If you watch college baseball, you know Ben Joyce. The 6'5" righty sits comfortably in the 101-103 range with his fastball, hitting 105 at one point this spring and completely overwhelming hitters when he's around the zone. The fastball plays up even farther because of the extension and angle he gets, making it virtually impossible to hit unless you sit on both the fastball and the location. He also shows a hard, upper 80's slider with some nice snap, but he struggles to locate it and it mostly plays up because hitters have to be ready for the fastball. The Knoxville native should move quickly as a reliever and would likely come at a discount here in the second round.

Others: RHP Connor Staine (Central Florida), C Logan Tanner (Mississippi State), OF Clark Elliott (Michigan), SS Nick Morabito (Gonzaga HS, DC), C Malcolm Moore (McClatchy HS, CA)

The above group represents some names the Nationals could look at to save some money if they went over slot on Jackson Holliday or Elijah Green, but now let's look at some splurge options if they instead go below slot on a guy like Gavin Cross, Jace Jung, or Brock Porter.

RHP Walter Ford, Pace HS [FL]. My rank: #31.
It's hard to find a better projection play than Walter Ford. He reclassified from the 2023 class so he won't turn 18 until the offseason, but already possesses a ton of athleticism and room to add good weight to his rangy 6'3" frame. Scouts love the way he moves on the mound at such a young age, and I'm sure the Nationals would love to get him into their development system and see what they can create. The fastball sits low to mid 90's for now, touching 97 with downward plane and promising to add more velocity in the future. While it's not the flat approach angle teams look for nowadays, the Nationals are more traditional and might be less concerned with that, especially considering he gets high spin rates and some hop on the pitch. Ford also spins a slider and changeup, with the former flashing above average, but both (in addition to his command) need more consistency. Ford needs a lot of development and the Nationals would have their work cut out for them, but few pitchers offer more upside in this draft. Committed to Alabama where he would be draft eligible again at just 20 years old, he'll almost certainly require a big over slot bonus in this spot.

RHP JR Ritchie, Bainbridge Island HS [WA]. My rank: #37.
JR Ritchie is a good picture of what Walter Ford might look like in a year and a half, because that's how much older he is. He's another athletic right hander, standing an inch shorter at 6'2", with plenty of projection remaining. His fastball sits in the same range, low to mid 90's with a peak around 97, also showing some ride and hop but mostly typical fastball movement. Ritchie's age and polish shine through with his secondaries, as he flashes plus with his slider while also showing good feel for his curveball and changeup. The Seattle-area native moves very well on the mound and throws strikes, and he also stands out as someone who really understands the game and will certainly work hard to maximize his potential. Committed to UCLA, he'll be eligible again as a sophomore in 2024 and will require more than slot value to sign here.

3B Tucker Toman, Hammond HS [SC]. My rank: #69.
Tucker Toman has seen quiet but consistent helium throughout the spring, and it could make him an over slot option for the Nationals in the second round. Toman is a switch hitter that takes whippy, powerful hacks that are very conducive to tapping game power, though for now, his left handed swing is quicker and more powerful than his right handed swing. In addition, he recognizes pitches well and gets his barrel to them with consistency, giving him the look of an all-around hitter that should transition fairly smoothly to pro ball. He's not athletic enough for shortstop but may have enough arm for third base, or he could be pushed to an outfield corner. Regardless, the Nationals would be buying the upside in his bat. Committed to LSU, he would require a sizable bonus to sign here.

Others: RHP Cole Phillips (Boerne HS, TX), OF Roman Anthony (Stoneman Douglas HS, FL), OF Henry Bolte (Palo Alto HS, CA), LHP Noah Schultz (Oswego East HS, IL), RHP Blade Tidwell (Tennessee)

2022 MLB Draft: Ten Options for the Nationals at Pick #5 (April Update)

Before the start of the season, I pulled ten options for the Nationals at the fifth overall pick. While of course players' stocks have moved in all different directions since then, things have remained *fairly* unchanged in terms of who is in play at the top of the draft. I dove a little bit into their draft history in that original article, so instead we can skip straight into who could conceivably be under consideration two months later. Considering Mike Rizzo's recent statement that he wants to shake up player development in this system, it's hard to say exactly which direction they will go.

I'm going to start by making a note on the three players that I see locking themselves in as the top three prospects. Georgia prep bats Druw Jones and Termarr Johnson as well as Cal Poly shortstop Brooks Lee, in my opinion, are in a class of their own and have some daylight before the next group. That doesn't mean that they'll go first, second, and third overall, but there's a good chance all three are off the board in the first four picks and it's hard to say which could end up slipping through the cracks. If I had to guess, it would probably be Johnson, so I'll highlight him but leave off Jones and Lee (but if any of the three are available, I'd highly advise Washington to draft him). As a quick summary, Jones is the son of Hall of Fame candidate Andruw Jones, bringing a ridiculous combination of athleticism and polish to the field you just don't often see. A plus-plus runner, he has plenty room to add weight to his frame and already shows plus power to go with strong plate coverage and plays a mean center field. Meanwhile, Lee also shows elite bat to ball skills and this year is showing much more restraint on pitches outside the zone, patching up the biggest question mark scouts had about his game. He also shows plus power and is slashing .401/.503/.693 as of this writing.

Below are ten players the Nationals are likely considering, with their rank on my most recent top 75 in parentheses as well as, for college players, their stats through April 17th.

2B Termarr Johnson, Mays HS [GA] (#3)
I don't think Termarr Johnson will be available here. One of Baltimore, Arizona, Texas, or Pittsburgh seems likely to fall in love with him, especially if Druw Jones and Brooks Lee are off the board at that point. But if he does reach #5, Washington should be all over him. Johnson is one of the best pure hitters to come through the high school ranks in years, with some calling him the best they've ever seen. He handles the strike zone like a seasoned MLB veteran, spitting on breaking balls and other pitches he doesn't like while consistently barreling up everything thrown in his ample hitting zone. Despite standing just 5'9", his combination of a keen eye and elite bat to ball skills allows him to take big, healthy hacks from the left side, producing plus power. That kind of bat certainly has the Orioles considering him with the first overall pick. The only questions in his profile are size and athleticism, as the other two top hitters in the high school class, Jones (6'4", 180) and Elijah Green (6'3", 225), are freak of nature-type athletes and Jackson Holliday (6'1", 180) has blossomed physically as well. Johnson (5'9", 190) projects more as a steady second baseman who can make all the routine plays, but won't be winning and Gold Gloves. Still, we have plenty of recent history with defensively-limited hitters going in the top couple of picks, highlighted by 2020 first overall pick Spencer Torkelson, so I don't think that should be an issue. Believe it or not, he remains uncommitted which conventionally lead you to believe he won't be as expensive as someone like Jones, Green, or Dylan Lesko, but he's so talented that there is bound to be a bidding war for his services and he won't come cheap.

OF Gavin Cross, Virginia Tech (#4)
2022: 8 HR, .352/.439/.680, 4 SB, 14/17 K/BB in 30 games.
Cross entered the season as the #6 player on my board and now has hit well enough to push himself to #4, putting him right in range for the Nationals at #5. He's a hard-hit machine that sprays deep fly balls, screaming line drives, and hot shot ground balls all around the field. Even when he swings over pitches, he still pounds them into the ground with such force that they turn into high choppers that take a while to come down. This is a power bat through and through. The Bristol, Tennessee native has always tracked pitches well out of the hand, but an aggressive approach led to a somewhat unsightly 48/17 strikeout to walk ratio last year (a 20.5% strikeout rate). This year, he has done a much better job laying off those pitches just out of the zone and focusing on maximizing damage on pitches in the zone, matching last year's walk total already while cutting his strikeout rate in half to just 9.5%. Now that he has patched up that last hole in his profile, he's a much more complete hitter and the Nationals will likely strongly consider him with the fifth overall pick, perhaps ahead of every other college bat (of which there are plenty) except Lee. His defensive profile has raised this year as well, seamlessly moving from right field to center field and showing the ability to potentially stick there. If his larger 6'3", 210 pound frame does ultimately force him back to right, he's shown enough this year to convince evaluators he'll still be above average at that position.

C Kevin Parada, Georgia Tech (#5)
2022: 18 HR, .380/.471/.778, 5 SB, 19/21 K/BB in 37 games.
Kevin Parada just missed this list before the season, but he's improved is stock significantly this spring despite already being considered a consensus first round bat. Always known as a well-rounded hitter with a professional approach and above average power, he's taken a step forward on both sides of that equation this spring. He cut his strikeout rate from a solid 16.9% a year ago to a very strong 10.2% this year, while also improving his walk rate from 7.0% to 11.2%. Tacking on some strength helped his previously above average power play up to easy plus this spring, perhaps double plus depending on who you ask, and it's playing to all fields consistently, not just the pull side. His defensive ability remains a bit of a question mark, with so-so athleticism and arm strength, but he's known by area scouts to possess a very strong work ethic and many are confident he will put in the work to stick behind the plate. He's pushed to the front of an extremely strong college catching class even if he's not a surefire lock to stay at the position, mostly because he's arguably the best hitter in all of college baseball. To boot, he's draft-eligible as a sophomore and younger than the other college names on this list, not turning 21 until after the draft. If the Nationals believe he will eventually improve to an average defender, there's no denying the bat and he could very easily be the pick at fifth overall.

RHP Dylan Lesko, Buford HS [GA] (#6)
In the past, I think Mike Rizzo would have been all over an arm like Dylan Lesko, and even with the evolving development philosophy in the system, Rizzo will still likely strongly consider the Atlanta-area righty. In a class extremely short on college pitching, the high schooler has established himself as the consensus top pitching prospect at either level and will probably be the only arm in play at pick #5 unless a prep lefty like Noah Schultz, Jackson Ferris, or Brandon Barriera is willing to take a big discount. Many evaluators consider Lesko to be the best prep pitching prospect in years, an honor he has really driven home this spring. The 6'2" righty sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and can touch the upper 90's with ease, while his changeup is arguably the best in the class with ludicrous life. Some scouts have nitpicked his ability to spin a breaking ball, but he has always shown high spin rates on his curve and slider (indicating attainable room for improvement) and this spring they have been more consistent. They're above average pitches most of the time and are trending towards plus. He's a great athlete that repeats his delivery well, fills up the strike zone with all four pitches, and has some projection left to boot. There is tremendous risk associated with high school righthanders and he recently came down with a little bit of soreness in his arm, so the Nationals' scouting department will be following that development very closely. But if they deem him healthy, it's really hard to look away from an eighteen year old that checks every single box. He's committed to Vanderbilt and would be a very expensive sign, even this high in the draft.

2B Jace Jung, Texas Tech (#7)
2022: 10 HR, .379/.527/.714, 4 SB, 24/42 K/BB in 39 games.
If the Nationals decide that all they care about in this spot is the bat, then Jace Jung might be high on their list. After hitting .337/.462/.697 as a sophomore, he's somehow improved in all three measures of the triple slash while dropping his strikeout rate from 17.0% to 12.8% and increasing his walk rate from 18.6% to 22.3%. He's gotten very little to hit all spring, but continues to show an extremely disciplined approach at the plate and when he has gotten his pitch, he hasn't missed it. In addition to his patience, he continues to show plus power to all fields and looks like arguably the safest bet to become and impact hitter in the college class (again, perhaps except for Lee). He plays second base for Texas Tech right now and would be a decent, Daniel Murphy-like defender there, or he could switch over to third base and be good enough there as well. Either way he won't be winning any Gold Gloves, but it's nice to have at least a little versatility from a top tier bat that can stick on the dirt.

C Daniel Susac, Arizona (#8)
2022: 7 HR, .385/.436/.627, 0 SB, 28/11 K/BB in 36 games.
Daniel Susac has followed a very similar path to Kevin Parada. While Parada was clearly the better prospect at the time, both drew significant draft interest out of their respective California private schools in 2020 (Loyola for Parada, Jesuit for Susac) and instead headed to school. Now after pushing their names into the first round conversation as freshmen, both have improved their stock further this spring and make the Nationals' short list after just missing it at the beginning of the spring. While Parada is relatively old for a sophomore with his August birthday and therefore draft-eligible, Susac is the age of a college junior with a May birthday and doesn't quite get the extreme age advantage of Parada, but he's still relatively young for a college-eligible player. He shows plus power and excellent batted ball metrics from his long limbed, 6'4" frame and has been an extra base hit machine in Tucson, tallying 60 in 97 career games so far. While he's a very free swinger, he makes a ton of contact and has still managed to drop his strikeout rate from 17.7% last year to 15.6% this year, a very reasonable number. The Sacramento-area product has also improved considerably behind the plate as a strong framer with a strong arm. It's really hard to find catchers with that combination of power, bat to ball ability, and defense, so really the only question mark in his profile is that free swinging approach. If he was striking out over 20% of the time, it might be more worrisome, but given the consistent hard contact he has made against strong competition in the Pac-12, the fact that he rarely walks is more of an afterthought in the profile. I would prefer Parada in this spot but Susac has made a very good case for himself.

OF Elijah Green, IMG Academy [FL] (#9)
Long a headliner for this prep class, Elijah Green has been talked about as high as first overall in the past and more recently has endured rumors he could fall out of the top ten. Despite possessing the loudest physical tools in the entire class, the inconsistency of his hit tool is currently leaving evaluators with very split opinions. He showed well on the showcase circuit, but came out this spring in a bit of a funk and swung and missed at an alarming rate if we're going by the context of the top ten picks, then more recently, has righted the ship and looks as locked in as ever. So that leaves evaluators to decide – is Green a streaky hitter who will always deal with slumps, or has he turned a corner and is that slow start just a blip on an otherwise stellar track record? If the Nationals believe the latter, then they should be all over the Orlando native at pick #5. As most are well aware of by now, he possesses massive raw power unparalleled anywhere in the high school class, power he has gotten to against good pitching in the past. Not just a slugger, he can absolutely fly on the bases with plus-plus speed that makes him a weapon in center field as well. And oh yeah, he has a cannon right arm to boot. If you want to imagine his ceiling, think of Aaron Judge with Victor Robles speed. That's really, really hard to pass up if you believe in his hit tool. He's committed to Miami and I imagine he will be quite expensive to sign.

SS Jackson Holliday, Stillwater HS [OK] (#11)
I'll reserve the last three spots on this list for potential money savers, mostly so it doesn't read like a plain old top ten list. Jackson Holliday, the son of former All Star Matt Holliday, has been flying up boards faster than anybody this spring. A few months ago, he was seen as more of a second round type. Over the summer, Holliday showed an advanced approach at the plate, spraying deep line drives around the park by choosing good pitches and connecting with a clean, leveraged swing. It was a very nice profile, but scouts wanted to see him fill out his frame a little bit more (I've seen him listed as short as 5'11" and as tall as 6'1" in different sources) before projecting him as a true impact player. Well, he came out this spring looking much more physical and the results have been phenomenal, just raking against Oklahoma high school pitching and hitting some impressive home runs along the way. On top of that, he's a strong defender with a plus arm with a good chance to stick at shortstop, further increasing chances he could continue to move up. Right now, pick #5 seems just a little bit rich, but he's trending up and by July could be more in play here, especially if the Nationals want a shortstop. He probably won't require full slot value here despite a commitment to play for both his uncle and father at Oklahoma State, so he could help the Nationals go above slot later in the draft.

LHP Brandon Barriera, American Heritage HS [FL] (#13)
There are three lefties jockeying for position behind top prep pitching prospect Dylan Lesko, and they are Brandon Barriera, Jackson Ferris, and Noah Schultz. None will likely be in play at the fifth overall pick on talent alone, but if the Nationals want a pitcher and Lesko is off the board (or they don't want to splurge on his high price tag), they could reach down the board a little bit for one of these three and save some money in the process. I chose to highlight Barriera, a bulldog competitor down in South Florida who recently made it known he would be wrapping up his high school season early to focus on the draft. A bit undersized at a skinny 6'1", he possesses some of the loudest stuff in the class in a low to mid 90's fastball, a wicked slider, and a relatively advanced changeup. Coming from an uptempo delivery, he pounds the strike zone relentlessly and while his control is ahead of his command, he projects to stay in the rotation long term. He really stands out for his competitive demeanor on the mound, always looking to prove doubters wrong. A Vanderbilt commitment means he won't come cheap, but at pick #5 he should still help the Nationals save a little money and Vanderbilt commits have been used in that regard in the past (see Ian Anderson, third overall in 2016).

3B Cam Collier, Chipola JC (#16)
2022: 7 HR, .333/.429/.525, 5 SB, 30/24 K/BB in 48 games.
Cam Collier probably isn't a top ten prospect at this point, so it will take a strong finish to his JUCO season to vault into consideration at pick #5, and he'll also likely need to take a discount. He could be that guy, though, as one of the best pure hitters in this class especially when you take his age into account. Collier should be a high school junior, but not only did he reclassify, he went the Bryce Harper route and skipped both his junior and senior seasons at Mount Paran Christian HS in the Atlanta area in order to enroll early at Chipola JC in Florida. Despite being just 17 years old while playing against mostly 18, 19, and 20 year olds, he got off to a red hot start when his season began in January and was one of the spring's first risers. He's been a little up and down since then but the overall numbers remain great and he's hitting .556 over his last seven games, so if Collier can show that he's turned a corner and is now truly settling in, he'll be in a great spot come July. He doesn't stand out for one individual tool, instead showing feel for the. game advanced beyond his years and the ability to do a little bit of everything. His professional approach at the plate is the reason he's taken so well to older pitching, and there is some natural power here to all fields that he taps without selling out. Though he's not the springiest athlete in the world, his strong arm should help him stick at third base and provide some defensive value. This is the kind of bat that could reach the majors at twenty years old if everything breaks right. He's committed to Louisville and if he heads there, will be draft eligible again as a twenty year old junior in 2025, so he has a lot of leverage. This early in the draft, though, I'd still expect him to take a sizable discount even if he finishes strong enough to warrant the selection.

Other Options
OF Chase DeLauter, James Madison (#10)
3B Jacob Berry, Louisiana State (#12)
LHP Noah Schultz, Oswego East HS [IL] (#14)
LHP Jackson Ferris, IMG Academy [FL] (#15)
OF Jordan Beck, Tennessee (#22)

Some second round options
It's very hard to predict who a team will take in the first round, especially in April, and therefore it's near impossible to guess who they'll take in the second round. So instead, I'll take a look at a few names I'd like to see the Nationals consider with the 45th overall pick.

LHP Parker Messick, Florida State (#24)
2022: 5-2, 2.93 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 94/12 K/BB in 55.1 innings.
I am very bullish on Parker Messick, and while his #24 ranking on my board may indicate he would be unlikely to reach the Nationals, he's ranked #48 by MLB Pipeline, #55 by Baseball America, and #71 by Prospects Live, so the industry definitely views him more as a second rounder. The reason I am bullish is simple, and that's because Messick can really, really pitch. He's an old school guy without big stuff, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball while adding a curveball, slider, and changeup. Both breaking balls flash above average while the changeup flashes plus, giving him plenty of weapons with which to attack hitters. However, the key to his success his pitchability, pounding the strike zone with confidence and swagger while effectively mixing pitches and changing speeds. Furthermore, everything plays up because he hides the ball extremely well, making him extremely difficult to pick up. Despite averaging a ranking of #58 between the three outlets I mentioned, I think he'll be gone within the top fifty picks due to the lack of college pitching in this class and I would love if the Nationals were the team to take him.

RHP Andrew Dutkanych, Brebeuf Jesuit HS [IN] (#26)
Andrew Dutkanych is an interesting pitcher that I think will thrive in the right development system. I'm not sure if that's Washington, but I'd rather have him on my side than not. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and touches 97, and while it doesn't quite have elite movement metrics, there's plenty of velocity there to make up for it. His best pitch is a short, tight slider that gives hitters fits, while his curveball and changeup are a bit behind the fastball and slider. Everything plays up because he's an aggressive pitcher that pounds the strike zone and refuses to be beat, and I think that kind of presence will serve him well in pro ball. The Indianapolis native also shows good command for a high schooler and is athletic on the mound, portending to a future in the starting rotation. He's committed to Vanderbilt and will be an expensive sign in the second round.

SS Jett Williams, Rockwall-Heath HS [TX] (#28)
This is another fun one, as Jett Williams would probably be a surefire first rounder if it weren't for his short stature at 5'7". However, anybody looking at the size and comparing him to Nick Madrigal would be mistaken, because his game is much more explosive, more similar to Dustin Pedroia. Williams takes big hacks from the right side to produce above average power, but he keeps it under control and doesn't let it affect his hit tool. He finds the barrel consistently and has done so against good pitching, giving me confidence he'll be an impact hitter down the road. The Dallas-area native also plays a good shortstop and could stick there in the long run, with a strong arm and good athleticism to handle the position. He's also gotten looks in center field and has impressed there with plus speed and the aforementioned arm strength, adding some versatility to the profile. I honestly doubt he'll be available at pick #45 and if he is, it will be expensive to buy him out of a Mississippi State commitment, but the glut of high school shortstops with similar skillsets in the first round/comp round range (Jackson Holliday, Mikey Romero, Cole Young) could push him down.

LHP Bryce Hubbart, Florida State (#33)
2022: 6-1, 2.82 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 66/13 K/BB in 51 innings.
It's not just Parker Messick creating headlines in Tallahassee. While not quite Rocker-Leiter, Bryce Hubbart makes Messick-Hubbart the most fearsome one-two punch in college baseball right now as they've combined for a 2.88 ERA and 160 strikeouts to 25 walks in 106.1 innings. Hubbart, like Messick, doesn't quite light up the radar guns with his low 90's fastball, but it's an invisiball with tremendous riding action that hitters just can't seem to pick up (and he's hit 96 in the past as well). He adds a pair of breaking balls in a curveball and a sweepier slider that have both been inconsistent (the slider more so than the curveball), but they flash plus at their best and he also has a solid changeup at his disposal. Despite an uptempo delivery, the skinny 6'1" lefty has improved his control and is filling up the strike zone more often in 2022, dropping his walk rate from 9.5% a year ago to 6.0% this spring. Hubbart is also a student of the game who understands and has worked to incorporate new developments in pitching development. If the Nationals can help him reach his peak velocity more often and get more consistent with his breaking stuff, I think they could have a legit impact starter here.

OF Justin Crawford, Bishop Gorman HS [NV] (#37)
Carl Crawford's son is one of the toolsiest players in this year's class, a notch below Elijah Green but still extremely impressive. Justin has had some first round buzz this spring and may not be available at pick #45, but he would be a great get if he is still on the board. As you'd expect from someone whose father stole 480 bases in a fifteen year big league career, the younger Crawford is a plus-plus runner who can change games with his speed. With a rangy 6'3" frame, he also has the chance to grow into plus power and he's been showing it off more often this spring. My main concern is with his hit tool, especially around offspeed pitches which he struggled with over the summer, but he's been better in that regard this spring and has shown enough to warrant a role of the dice early in the draft. There is a ton of upside here and I think it would be worth buying him out of his Louisiana State commitment, though it will be expensive.

2022 MLB Draft: Ten early options for the Nationals at pick #5

We're entering a new era of Nationals baseball, with the newest generation of fans perhaps not used to picking so early in the draft. From 2012-2020, they never picked higher than sixteenth (Lucas Giolito, 2012), then in 2021 moved up to eleventh. In 2022, they'll be picking in a range more familiar to older fans, with their first top five pick since they made Bryce Harper their second of back to back first overall picks in 2010. Harper was part of an extremely successful run from 2009-2012 that also saw them take Stephen Strasburg (1st overall, 2009), Drew Storen (10th, 2009), Anthony Rendon (6th, 2011), and Giolito (16th, 2012) with first round picks. Since then, the 2010's were a bit of rough sledding with Erick Fedde (18th, 2014) and Carter Kieboom (28th, 2016) being the only two first rounders to make any kind of impact on the big league club, and Nationals first rounders since 2013 have actually combined for -0.4 fWAR in that timeframe.

With the lack of recent success from early picks, coupled with the constant trading of prospects during the Nationals' many playoff runs and several high profile international signings floundering, the farm system has fallen precipitously and was actually ranked dead last by Baseball America prior to the 2021 season. The deadline selloff that year, as well as a breakout from Cade Cavalli and high profile additions in Brady House and Christian Vaquero, helped bump Washington up to 26th out of 30 in the 2022 version of that list, but there is still a ways to go. It's clear that the system's traditional player development strategy has fallen behind other, more progressive systems, and for that reason Mike Rizzo is shaking things up going forward. For that reason, it's very hard to peg what direction the Nationals will go in 2022, and it might be easier to simply list out the best prospects in the draft, all of whom figure to have a chance to wear the Curly W. Before we dive in, let's take a quick look back at the Nationals five most recent first round picks:

2021: SS Brady House, Winder-Barrow HS, GA (11th overall)
2020: RHP Cade Cavalli, Oklahoma (22nd overall)
2019: RHP Jackson Rutledge, San Jacinto CC (17th overall)
2018: RHP Mason Denaburg, Merritt Island HS, FL (27th overall)
2017: LHP Seth Romero, Houston (25th overall)

Brady House broke a streak of four consecutive pitchers taken in the first round and a streak of six consecutive first rounds selecting a pitcher. He's the first hitter the Nationals had taken to begin a draft since Kieboom in 2016, when they also selected college righty Dane Dunning one pick later. The one demographic the Nationals have really avoided with that first pick is a college bat, with Rendon in 2011 being the most recent, but there will be a bevy of options available this year that could cause that to change. Given the already-shallow college pitching class that has been further battered by injuries, as well as teams' usual reluctance to gamble on high school pitching at the very top of the draft, the available options are likely pointing to Washington taking a hitter with the fifth overall pick. There are three absolute studs at the very top of the prep bat class if they want to double up after taking House last year, while the college bats provide the deepest group of high-end talent of any demographic in the class. Let's explore some options, with their ranking on my current board in parentheses.

2B Termarr Johnson, Mays HS [GA] (#1)
If the draft were today, it would be highly unlikely for Termarr Johnson to make it past the first couple of picks, but high schoolers can be unpredictable with their bonus demands and we have a long spring ahead of us. So if other bats overtake him or if he starts asking for an astronomical number, Johnson could be available at pick #5. There are no two ways about it – TerJohn is a special, special hitter. Despite being nearly a year younger than much of his competition that consists of an oddly old group of top high school prospects, he has stood out with the best combination of polish and power we have seen in a long time. He takes extremely professional at bats, rarely chasing pitches he doesn't like even with an eye for the strike zone well beyond his years. When he does get his pitch, he can find the barrel with his eyes closed if he wants to with exceptional plate coverage and hand eye coordination. That level of confidence in the box allows him to rip off ferocious hacks from the left side without sacrificing his hit tool, giving him plus power despite a stocky 5'9" frame that might not look the part. For those familiar with last year's class, you can imagine Kahlil Watson's build, power, and swing (perhaps toned down just a hair) combined with more than a full grade better hit tool. On the defensive side, the Atlanta native shows a smooth and quick glove that profiles well at second base, though he probably lacks the explosive physical tools for shortstop in the long run. One of the Orioles, Diamondbacks, Rangers, or Pirates will probably pick him up before the Nationals come around at pick #5 if he keeps hitting like he does, but if he slips through, it would be hard for Washington to pass him over. He surprisingly remains uncommitted, so it remains to be seen how his bonus demands shape up and affect his market.

OF Druw Jones, Wesleyan HS [GA] (#2)
Termarr Johnson goes to school just west of downtown Atlanta, but up in the northeastern suburbs less than 25 miles away, we have another talent with equal if not greater upside in Druw Jones. The son of longtime Braves great and deserving future Hall of Famer Andruw Jones, Druw fits right at the top of the class as well and could also be gone before Washington selects. He is a supreme athlete that has steadily added more and more polish to his game, putting him fully in contention for the top overall spot on my board. He has an ideal frame at 6'4" with long arms and legs and plenty of room to add strength, something teams absolutely love to see early in the draft. A right handed hitter, he has plus raw power and loves to turn on pitches, driving them impressive distances with great strength and leverage in his swing. Despite a pull-centric approach, he shows great plate coverage with those long arms and strong barrel accuracy giving him the ability to pull pitches on the outer half of the plate with authority as well. He does show the ability to go the other way with authority already, but for now, that's usually not his approach. To top it off, Jones has strong plate discipline and pitch recognition and does not chase often. As a whole, the package at the plate makes him a tremendous ball of clay for the Nationals' pro development staff to get their hands on, and once you combine the strength, athleticism, and plate discipline befitting of the sone of a major leaguer with some tweaks to his overall approach and swing path, you have MVP upside. Not just a hitter, Jones shines on defense as well, with plus-plus speed helping him track down virtually anything hit in his direction in center field. As you'd expect given his father's defensive prowess, he's also polished out there beyond what you'd expect from most high schoolers. Throw in a strong arm and he has a chance to win Gold Gloves in center field. Jones is committed to Vanderbilt and will be an expensive sign, which could enable him to drop to the Nationals at pick #5.

OF Elijah Green, IMG Academy [FL] (#5)
Rounding out the Big Three prep bats is Elijah Green, perhaps the most physically gifted high schooler we've seen in a long time. While Termarr Johnson is only 5'9" and Druw Jones still has plenty of room to grow into his 6'4" frame, Elijah Green has already filled out his 6'3" frame with 225 pounds of fast-twitch muscle. The son of former NFL tight end Eric Green, Elijah brings that kind of football athleticism to the baseball field and it manifests most prominently in some of the best raw power in the class, easily plus if not plus-plus. He takes big hacks from the right side to get the most out of that power, dropping some absolute bombs that leave scouts adding exclamation marks to their reports. In addition to his jaw dropping power, he's also a plus-plus runner that can make things happen on the bases, giving him true 30-30 upside in the majors. While he certainly has a healthy uppercut in the box, Green stays balanced up there and for years has shown the ability to tap his power in games, making him one of the most famous names in the 2022 prep class for a while now. He's especially potent down in the zone, where he can really go down and lift the ball, but lately pitchers have found holes in his swing with fastballs up in the zone as well as with well-placed breaking balls that dive out of the zone away from him. How the Orlando-area native adjusts this spring will dictate whether he remains in play at the top of the draft or slips a little bit, and scouts will have plenty of opportunity to evaluate him playing on the most talented high school program in the nation, the IMG Academy boarding school outside of Tampa. Defensively, his speed will help him stick in center field, while his plus arm will make him a true weapon and can help him compete for Gold Gloves if he can get a little more polished out there with his reads and routes. He's committed to Miami, but if he shows well enough this spring to be in play when the Nationals pick at #5 overall, that shouldn't be an issue.

RHP Dylan Lesko, Buford HS [GA] (#10)
The Atlanta area is consistently one of the top talent producing metros in the country, but 2022 is on another level. Already boasting Termarr Johnson and Druw Jones, who in my opinion are the two best prospects in this entire class for now, the ATL also gives us the near-consensus top pitching prospect in the prep class (and perhaps the entire draft) in Dylan Lesko, just twenty miles northeast of Jones' Wesleyan School and forty miles northeast of Johnson's Mays High School (yeah, the ATL is absolutely massive). It's crowded near the top of the prep pitching class, but Lesko has done just enough to provide some daylight between himself and the next tier. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and can get into the upper 90's, with good extension down the mound helping give that fastball a little extra hop. Lesko's bread and butter plus changeup with excellent diving action that can even be effective if he misses up in the zone, while he also adds two breaking balls. He throws his curveball more often than his slider, and while it's still a work in progress with inconsistent shape, he gets high spin rates on it that give it plenty of upside if the Nationals' staff gets their hands on it. The 6'2" righty has a sturdy frame and a clean delivery that helps him fill up the strike zone, generally doing a very good job of spotting his pitches to both sides of the plate. It's not so much of a "wow, I've never seen that before" profile as it is one that checks all of the boxes you look for in a premium prep pitching prospect, and if he stays healthy and continues pounding the strike zone with big league stuff like he has throughout his high school career, he could very well be in play at pick #5. Another factor that could push him up the board to Washington is the poor college pitching class, so if the Nationals want a true impact arm, he may be the best and possibly only option. As with Druw Jones, they'll also have to contend with an expensive Vanderbilt commitment.

SS Brooks Lee, Cal Poly (#3)
2020-2021: 10 HR, .342/.384/.626, 3 SB, 34/18 K/BB in 55 games.
If the Nationals are going to take the first college hitter in the first round since 2011, there are tons of options but Cal Poly shortstop Brooks Lee might be the best at this point. A top two rounds talent out of San Luis Obispo High School in 2019, he instead headed to school to play for his dad and a massive sophomore season vaulted him to the top of the class. He immediately stands out for his pure feel for the barrel, which is arguably the best in the entire college class. Lee is an aggressive hitter that frequently expands his zone, but his barrel accuracy is so elite that he still rarely swings and misses and can do plenty of damage outside of the strike zone. When he connects, he shows above average raw power that he consistently taps in games, with the chance to grow into true plus power from his strong 6'1" frame once he incorporates a little more loft into his swing. On the defensive side, he's a heady defender that can make all the routine plays at shortstop but may be forced to move to third base as he fills out his frame and slows down a tick. He seems like exactly the kind of player the Orioles would love to get their hands on with the first overall pick, especially if he's willing to sign below slot value, but given the glut of position player talent at the top of this draft there's a very good chance he's available at pick #5. If he can tighten his strike zone a little bit in 2022 while continuing to tap his power, he could make sense for Washington as a potential prime Daniel Murphy-type hitter, bringing the added benefit of being a switch hitter and providing better defense.

OF Chase DeLauter, James Madison (#4)
2020-2021: 7 HR, .385/.488/.657, 14 SB, 24/34 K/BB in 42 games.
The Nationals also have a hometown option if they want to go that route, which I think would be really cool. Chase DeLauter grew up just over the Blue Ridge from the DC area in Martinsburg, West Virginia, just over sixty miles northwest of the White House. He's absolutely torn the cover off the ball at JMU, ripping .385/.488/.657 over 42 games to make scouts take notice, but it was his performance on the Cape (.298/.397/.589) against elite competition that really vaulted him up boards similar to New Mexico State's Nick Gonzales a few years ago, though they're very different players. DeLauter is listed at an intimidating 6'4", 235 pounds, and he looks it in the box. He has a very loose, effortless uppercut in the box that reminds me somewhat of James Wood from last year's draft, producing easy loft and playing well to his body type. It's not the most traditional swing path and his pure bat to ball skills are probably closer to average than plus, but he's an extraordinarily disciplined hitter that works counts with precision until he gets his pitch to hit. Despite facing a weaker schedule at JMU, that plate discipline held up extremely well on the Cape where he saw a big step up in competition, continuing to walk more (21) than he struck out (18) in 34 games. This is a true power hitter who is completely unfazed by premium stuff and whose small school should not be held against him. He's also a good runner that may be able to make it work in center field for a little while, though as he slows down he'll probably move to right field where his strong arm will play. To top it off, DeLauter is extremely young for the class and won't turn 21 until October, much like Jud Fabian a year ago. He'll be tested right away with a series against Florida State during the opening weekend, where he'll face two of the best lefties in the country in Parker Messick and Bryce Hubbart. How he fares against those two and the tough FSU staff as a whole will be closely watched, and if he performs like he's capable in that series and throughout the season against JMU's Colonial schedule, he'll very much be in play at pick #5.

OF Gavin Cross, Virginia Tech (#6)
2020-2021: 11 HR, .345/.415/.621, 9 SB, 48/17 K/BB in 51 games.
The Nationals have had a bit of UVA flavor lately between Ryan Zimmerman, Sean Doolittle, and briefly Mark Reynolds, but in 2022 they have an opportunity to flip across the rivalry and bring in a Hokie. Gavin Cross grew up in Bristol, Tennessee, just minutes over the border with Virginia, which makes him a quasi-hometown pick as well. He's actually a bit of a cross between Brooks Lee and Chase DeLauter in that he combines Lee's aggressiveness and pitch recognition with DeLauter's power and size, making his at bats somewhat of a laser show. He crushes baseballs with massive exit velocities on a scarily consistent basis, regularly driving them out to all fields for true plus power that plays in games. While he is aggressive, his pitch recognition and bat to ball skills are very strong and he makes a lot of hard contact outside the zone. While you might think that better pitching would exploit this, he has performed in the ACC and he hit a scorching .455/.474/.879 over eleven games with the Collegiate National Team, where he faced some of the best arms in the country. He's not quite as quick as DeLauter and probably won't sniff center field in pro ball, he'll be just fine in right with a cannon arm. I've mentioned this every time I've written about him, but the whole package really reminds me of Juan Soto minus his generational plate discipline (which of course is a big part of what makes Juan Soto Juan Soto). Cross has the size, frame, and swing of his Nationals counterpart, and his strong pitch recognition harkens to Soto as well. If he can tighten up the strike zone a little bit and show more of a patient approach at the plate in 2022, he should be in play for Washington at #5.

2B Jace Jung, Texas Tech (#7)
2020-2021: 25 HR, .322/.457/.678, 5 SB, 60/67 K/BB in 75 games.
In 2018, Texas Tech third baseman Josh Jung went eighth overall to the in-state Rangers, and in 2022, the Nationals could help his younger brother beat that position. It's hard to know what direction Mike Rizzo will go given how he will be changing the strategy this year, but out of everyone on this list, Jung probably feels the most like a National. He probably has the most balanced profile of any college hitter this year, and like I've mentioned before it's a very deep class in that regard so that's no small honor. He's extremely patient in the box and recognizes pitches well, enabling him to consistently do damage against strong competition. There is at least above average power in his 6' frame, which he taps extremely consistently in games because he's always finding the barrel. Some quibble with the San Antonio native's unique load, in which he cocks his bat back towards the backstop, but I like it because it puts him in a good position to hit and brings with it very little wasted movement. The overall product is a hitter that can produce 20-30 home runs annually with high on-base percentages and hit near the top of a lineup, and there's a pretty high floor as well. Jung isn't a strong defender, with just enough glove for second base or just enough arm for third base depending on which you want to stretch, but you're buying the bat here. There's not much he can do to build off his tremendous 2021 season, but if he can just repeat it, he'll be in play at pick #5.

RHP Landon Sims, Mississippi State (#13)
2020-2021: 6-0, 1.82 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 123/22 K/BB in 69.1 innings.
It's a very shallow college pitching class that was initially led by a trio of SEC righthanders in Arkansas' Peyton Pallette, Tennessee's Blade Tidwell, and Mississippi State's Landon Sims. However, a shallow pitching class got shallower when Pallette went down with Tommy John surgery and Tidwell was shut down with shoulder soreness, leaving Sims as the clear leader despite having never started a game at the college level. Instead, he's served as the Bulldogs' closer where anyone who watches college baseball at all has likely seen him. He'll transition to the rotation this spring after the departures of Will Bednar and Christian MacLeod, where he has a chance to really push himself up boards in a big way. It's the most explosive stuff in amateur baseball, bar none, that makes the Atlanta-area native special. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, touching 97, but its movement is perhaps even more impressive than its velocity with tremendous carry that makes it nearly impossible to square up. His slider is just as good, a devastating breaker with nasty late bite, and the two pitches helped him strike out 46.9% (!) of the hitters he faced this past season despite going up against a strong SEC and NCAA Tournament schedule. For the most part, he's relied on those two pitches to get out, but he's been working on his changeup in preparation for his rotation move and the pitch is already looking very promising. Sims is a fire breathing competitor and an absolute bulldog when he comes in to close out games, but if the Nationals are going to draft him fifth overall, they're going to do so with conviction that he will be a starter. He commands the ball much better than you'd expect with his kind of stuff, which will bode well for that transition to the rotation this spring, and if his stuff is anywhere close to being as explosive as it is out of the bullpen, the sturdy 6'2" righty could pull it off. Watch to see how he holds up the second and third time through the order this year to see whether he's worth a shot at #5.

SS Carter Young, Vanderbilt (#16)
2020-2021: 16 HR, .268/.347/.522, 10 SB, 101/35 K/BB in 79 games.
If he wants to go fifth overall, Carter Young has more work to do than anybody else on this list, including Landon Sims and his transition to the rotation. Young was trending towards this part of the draft after hitting .328 in his shortened freshman season (albeit without much power in a small sample size) and coming out of the gate hot again in 2021, but a shoulder injury in May scuttled his momentum and he was still dealing with lingering effects after he returned in June. That second half slump in 2021 hurt his outlook, but he's fully healthy heading into 2022 and will look to build his stock back up. Young is a switch hitter that taps plus raw power in games with a big, healthy hack, with a mature all-fields approach that helps him handle high end stuff. However, that big swing also leads to some swing and miss, an issue that snowballed after his injury when he wasn't able to cut loose as effectively. In 2022, he'll have to not only get back to his pre-injury self, but cut down further on the swing and miss to prove he belongs at the very top of the class. Working in his favor is his defense, with both the range and the arm strength to profile as a plus defender at shortstop. Not many shortstops boast the kind of bat he shows at his best, and the Nationals would love it if he could put it all together this spring and cut his strikeout rate to a tolerable level. If he does, it will be one of the better all-around profiles in the class.

Other Dark Horse Candidates

LHP Brandon Barriera, American Heritage HS, FL (#15)
2B Robert Moore, Arkansas (#17)
LHP Jackson Ferris, IMG Academy, FL (#20)
3B Cam Collier, Chipola JC (#22)
OF Justin Crawford, Bishop Gorman HS, NV (#38)