1-16: SS Ed Howard, Mount Carmel HS (IL)
2-51: LHP Burl Carraway, Dallas Baptist
3-88: OF Jordan Nwogu, Michigan
4-117: LHP Luke Little, San Jacinto CC
5-147: RHP Koen Moreno, Panther Creek HS (NC)
This is a pretty balanced draft class for the Cubs, and I think I like it overall. There's a lot of upside to play with here, and while there is significant risk in many of the picks, I don't think it's a crazy boom/bust class overall. Of course, the two highlights of the class are Chicago native Ed Howard and 6'8" fireballing lefty Luke Little, but the other three names are worthy of intrigue as well. I'm interested to see how this class turns out.
Full index of team reviews here
1-16: SS Ed Howard, Mount Carmel HS, IL (my rank: 21)
Ed Howard is one of the most likable players in the class, having played shortstop for the famed Jackie Robinson West Little League team that went to the Little League World Series in 2014. Six years later, he's a graduate of Mount Carmel High School in Chicago's Woodlawn neighborhood on the South Side. Some guys, you just like them the more you watch them play, and Howard is one of those. A gifted, natural athlete, he glides around the field and makes everything look easy out there. He's going to stick as a shortstop with natural instincts, arm strength, and range. At the plate, he's a balanced hitter with a good approach, the ability to make consistent hard contact, and some moderate present power. It's not the flashiest offensive profile at this point, but he's still filling out his 6'2" frame and his natural bat speed and feel for the barrel project to have him hitting for more and more impact as he develops and adds loft to his right handed stroke. That might point to 15-20 home runs per season with good on-base percentages, perhaps in somewhat of a Dansby Swanson profile with a bit more consistency. With good defense at shortstop, that's an all-around great profile. He signed at slot for $3.75 million instead of heading to Oklahoma for college. Pre-draft profile here.
2-51: LHP Burl Carraway, Dallas Baptist (my rank: 84)
College relievers haven't had the most appealing track record lately, but the ease of projection and lack of necessary development always gets teams to bite early. That's the case with Burl Carraway, the top reliever in the class who should fly through the minors. The College Station, Texas native has been dominant at Dallas Baptist over the past two seasons, posting a 2.47 ERA and an 89/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 innings for the Patriots. In 2020, he struck out 17 of the 37 batters he faced (46%). Carraway pitches bigger than his 6' frame, using a plus mid 90's fastball that gets a ton of riding life and misses barrels consistently. He adds in a plus curveball with great depth and power, and he can go to either pitch for his strikeouts consistently. However, he's also a mediocre strikethrower, with a high effort delivery that will for sure keep him in the bullpen and which has led him to walk 31 batters in 51.1 innings in his career. He doesn't quite need to get all the way to average command to succeed in the majors, but if the Cubs want an impact reliever, they'll at least have to get him close. If he can land his pitches in the zone more frequently, he has the stuff, and not to mention the bulldog bullpen mentality, to pitch in the major in the very near future. Personally, I'm not a big fan of drafting college relievers this early not only because of the lack of ceiling, but because the floor isn't as high as it appears. Teams often find successful relievers by accident just by converting starters they found in the 14th round, so biting this early seems unnecessary to me. That said, none of this is Carraway's fault, because his stuff and mentality are legitimate. They also saved money here, as his $1.05 million signing bonus was about $390,000 below slot, allowing the Cubs to go above slot later in the draft. If it breaks right, they might have found their closer of the future. Pre-draft profile here.
3-88: OF Jordan Nwogu, Michigan (my rank: 117)
This is definitely one of the more interesting players in the draft. Nwogu had three different types of scholarship offers coming out of Pioneer High School in Ann Arbor, between football, baseball, and academic. He actually took the academic scholarship and ended up at Michigan for computer engineering, but he's just as much braun as he is brains. He's done nothing but absolutely rake for the Wolverines, slashing .334/.430/.545 with 20 home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a 96/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 career games, perhaps the best hitter on the surprise Michigan team that went all the way to the College World Series Finals in 2019. Nwogu is a physical beast at 6'3" and 235 pounds, showing both speed and power. He's been an extremely consistent hitter for the Wolverines, driving the ball around the field and over fences, drawing walks, and stealing bases. However, his swing is pretty awkward, as his quick hands get the barrel to the ball really quickly but he has virtually no load at all, putting his hands in somewhat of an awkward hitting position. He's made it work to this point and brings a ton of offensive upside, perhaps 20-25 home runs annually with decent on base percentages if he can improve his pitch recognition a little bit. Defensively, his plus speed gives him a chance to stick in center field, but he's not the most natural defender and might be forced over to left. The last player who hasn't signed, he's looking at a $678,600 slot value, but the Cubs only have a little under $540,000 left in their bonus pool and he might have to take a slight discount.
4-117: LHP Luke Little, San Jacinto CC (my rank: 93)
Oh boy is this a fun one. As we've all heard by now, Luke Little is a 6'8" lefty who hit 105 with his fastball during a quarantine bullpen. And that wasn't a fluke, as he's consistently hit triple digits in games and sat 101-103 in that famous bullpen session. I have to commend his catcher, because I think trying to catch that would have sent most of us to the ICU. Little's fastball isn't straight, either, coming from a crossfire delivery that gives it great angle and makes it not only hard to catch up to, but to square up. He has a slider as well that has flashed plus, but it's inconsistent and tends to play closer to average. Behind the slider are a curveball and changeup, which both need significant work. Throughout his career, Little has struggled immensely to throw strikes, as he hadn't proven he could repeat his delivery and looked very uncoordinated on the mound. In the shortened 2020 season, he showed a cleaner delivery and improved strike throwing, but there is still considerable work to be done. The good news is that he's very young for a college sophomore and doesn't turn 20 until August, which to me means he might just need time to grow into his massive body. I think it's a long shot to project him as a starter, but if he grows into his body as expected, a triple digit lefty reliever with a refined slider and better command would be a sight to behold. He signed for $492,700, right at slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
5-147: RHP Koen Moreno, Panther Creek HS, NC (unranked)
For their final pick, the Cubs went out to the Raleigh-Durham high school ranks and grabbed right hander Koen Moreno for a big over slot deal. Moreno, who checks in at 6'2", is fairly new to pitching but already shows plenty of talent the Cubs are happy to get their hands on. His fastball currently sits around 90, but he's been steadily adding velocity and he's been up as high as 94 at times. He adds a slurvy breaking ball that shows great depth and shape, but it needs to add power to be effective in pro ball. There's a changeup as well, but as with most high schoolers, you need to use your imagination to project it. The Cubs are buying Moreno's athleticism and loose arm, projecting him to add power to his stuff as he fills out, rather than letting him get to East Carolina and pitch his way to a higher draft position. He throws enough strikes to be comfortable with the stuff, and he could take some big leaps forward in pro ball once the Cubs start working with him. His $900,000 signing bonus, which bought him out of that ECU commitment, was $532,100 above slot value.
Undrafted: OF Bradlee Beesley, Cal Poly (unranked)
A product of San Leandro in California's East Bay region, Beesley has been a consistent, if unspectacular, performer for four years at Cal Poly, slashing .286/.353/.378 with four home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 103/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 180 games. He's also hit well for two years in the elite Cape Cod League, proving his consistency further. He probably projects more as a fourth or fifth outfielder than as a starter, but he's a good runner that will stick in center field and get on base at a good rate, albeit without a ton of power. As a senior sign with great feel for the game, he could move quickly through what's left of the minor leagues.
Undrafted: SS Scott McKeon, Coastal Carolina (unranked)
McKeon is another Raleigh-Durham native, though he bounced from Brunswick CC over to Coastal Carolina and is four years older than Koen Moreno. He's done nothing but hit over two seasons with the Chanticleers, slashing .344/.407/.500 with seven home runs and a 68/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 games. He's got some wiry strength that was helping him tap a little more power in 2020, and while he'll never be a true slugger, the hope is that he can get close to average power in pro ball. He's a good runner that does pick up a lot of extra base hits, and while there isn't a ton of swing and miss, there's a little more than you would like out of a smaller senior sign like McKeon. He likely has the glove to stick at shortstop, which would take the most pressure off his bat and give him the best path to starting, but with Javier Baez entrenched at the position and Ed Howard coming up behind him, McKeon is more likely looking at a utility infield projection.
Undrafted: 1B/RHP Matt Mervis, Duke (unranked)
Here's a two-way player to track, even if he doesn't have a ton of upside. Mervis is a product of Georgetown Prep High School on the doorstep of Washington, DC, and he's improved considerably throughout his time at Duke. He's hit more than he's pitched, slashing .277/.378/.455 with nine home runs and a 52/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 71 games while also putting up a 1.74 ERA and a 10/6 strikeout to walk ratio in 10.1 innings over the last two seasons. At 6'4", he produces a lot of power from a quick left handed swing and was showing better plate discipline in 2020, profiling as perhaps a power hitting 1B/DH platoon type. On the mound, he shows a low 90's fastball and profiles best as a reliever, especially if he's going to keep hitting. The command is so-so.
Showing posts with label Jordan Nwogu. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jordan Nwogu. Show all posts
Friday, July 3, 2020
Friday, June 5, 2020
Spencer Torkelson vs Austin Martin: The 1-1 Discussion
Last year, the Orioles gave some thought to players like Bobby Witt Jr. and Andrew Vaughn, but for the most part, it was a forgone conclusion that they would select Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman first overall, and they did. In 2020, while Arizona State first baseman Spencer Torkelson has emerged as the clear frontrunner, Vanderbilt infielder/outfielder Austin Martin remains very much in the conversation, and it's certainly an interesting one. You have two players who are similar enough to cleanly compare as fellow college position players, but different enough to contrast as guys with very different skill sets. With that, let's dive into what the thought process between these two could look like for the Tigers.
The Tigers' Position
Having to decide between two or more great players at 1-1 is a great problem to have. The current state of the system is very pitching-heavy, led by a "big three" of Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Tarik Skubal, with Mize having been the first overall pick in the 2018 draft. Now the MLB draft is very different from its NFL and NBA counterparts for a lot of reasons, but perhaps the biggest is this: you don't draft for need. If the Tigers believed the best player available was a pitcher like Asa Lacy or Emerson Hancock, they absolutely should have drafted one of the two, regardless of how pitching-heavy the system was. But the good news for the Tigers is that Torkelson and Martin are generally considered better players than Lacy and Hancock, so they can fill easily a need while still taking the best player available.
The Case for Spencer Torkelson
Position: 1B. 2020 Stats: 6 HR, .340/.598/.780, 15/31 K/BB.
My original profile written here
Spencer Torkelson has the best bat in the class, period. Over two-plus years at Arizona State, he cracked 54 home runs while slashing .337/.463/.729 with more walks (110) than strikeouts (104) across 129 games. The power is double plus, playing to all fields, against velocity and against good offspeed stuff, and with wood bats. The contact ability is plus as well, as Torkelson is adept at recognizing offspeed pitches, getting the barrel to the ball, and keeping his strikeouts down. There is no question that he is going to hit and hit for power in pro ball and in the majors. To boot, he's young for the class and won't turn 21 until August.
While Austin Martin is a no-doubt future plus hitter, Torkelson's bat is better. The quickest, easiest, and most robust way to get ROI on your top prospect is for him to hit, and Torkelson will do that. Martin is going to provide more defensive value, especially if he can stick at shortstop, but sometimes you just have to avoid the urge to get too cute and check all the boxes. There is a generational power prospect right there for the taking; just do it.
The Case for Austin Martin
Position: IF/OF. 2020 Stats: 3 HR, .377/.507/.660, 2/10 K/BB, 3 SB.
My original profile written here
Torkelson doesn't have a monopoly on the whole "being a special hitter" thing. Martin cut his strikeout rate from 16.8% as a freshman to 10.5% as a sophomore to a minuscule 2.9% as a junior – just two K's in sixteen games. Typically, that kind of contact is reserved for slap hitters or players who otherwise just kind of spray line drives around the field with little hope for double digit home run totals, but Martin doesn't fit that profile. He is a legitimate impact hitter who doesn't settle for weak contact, driving the ball with authority to all fields and over fences. He's hit 13 home runs in 81 games since the start of 2019, all while slashing .389/.490/.614 with just 36 strikeouts. While he doesn't project to be a true power hitter and certainly not Torkelson-esque in home run output, he should be good for anywhere from 15-25 home runs annually, all while putting up high on-base percentages in the .400 range. Alex Bregman had a remarkably similar profile in college, and he hit 41 home runs in 2019.
Martin is a hitting machine while also providing significantly more defensive value than Torkelson. Having watched Martin play various positions around the diamond, scouts have seen plenty to imply he could be an above average defender at shortstop. He has been surrounded by better defenders throughout his career, so he hasn't had the chance to prove it, but regardless, Martin will be providing value on both sides of the ball. Martin is the more well-rounded player, with a real chance of providing just as much offensive value as Torkelson with defense to boot. Don't let Torkelson's power distract from the fact that Martin is a special hitter who will have no trouble putting up big numbers against major league pitching with some speed to boot.
Other Options
LHP Asa Lacy, Texas A&M: The best pitcher in the class, Lacy is 14-5 with a 2.07 ERA and a 224/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 148 innings in his career at Texas A&M. He's big, he's mean, and he's left handed, which helps make his nasty four pitch mix play up with improving command to boot. Out of all the other options beyond Torkelson and Martin, Lacy seems like the "frontrunner among the dark horses" to go first overall. While that probably doesn't mean much given that the Tigers seem to be locking in on Tork, it is a testament to Lacy's immense upside combined with very little risk. Full profile here.
2B Nick Gonzales, New Mexico State: There are some that would argue that the only difference between Nick Gonzales and Austin Martin, at least offensively, is who they've played against. He is a career .399/.502/.747 hitter with 37 home runs and more walks (89) than strikeouts (79) in 128 games at New Mexico State. He hit .432/.532/.773 in 2019 then .448/.610/1.155 in 2020, and he also won the Cape Cod League MVP to prove his bat was for real. Still, the fact that he hasn't proved it day in and day out against SEC competition like Martin has, plus slightly worse defense, means that Martin remains a little bit ahead. His most likely landing spots are either the Royals at #4 or the Blue Jays at #5. Full profile here.
RHP Emerson Hancock, Georgia: Hancock entered the 2020 season as an early favorite to go first overall, drawing comparisons to 2018 first overall pick Casey Mize after putting up a 1.99 ERA as a sophomore. His best attribute is his command, which helps his very good four pitch arsenal play up significantly. Not just a finesse pitcher, Hancock can hit 99 and all three of his offspeed pitches flash plus, giving him an extremely well-rounded profile. However, while the players listed above continued to push their stock forward this year, Hancock remained more or less in the same spot after a couple of up-and-down outings against Richmond and Georgia Tech, and some question his lack of a true, wipeout offspeed pitch. For that reason, he has fallen just behind Lacy, and he is perhaps equally likely to end up going anywhere from fourth to seventh overall. Full profile here.
OF Zac Veen, Spruce Creek HS [FL]: Veen has steadily risen throughout the past calendar year, going from a fringe first rounder to a potential top ten pick to now having his name discussed as high as #4 to the Royals. The top high school prospect in the class, Veen has tremendous power projection in his 6'4" frame, with a beautiful left handed swing that figures to tap every bit of it without selling out. While he has shown some minor swing and miss concerns, they're not a huge deal and Veen's advanced plate discipline gives plenty of hope that they will never be an issue. Still, the college bats are much more proven than Veen and he would be a stretch for the Tigers at 1-1. Full profile here.
Michiganders for the Later Rounds
It's always fun to see guys go to their hometown team, and while no Michiganders are in the running for the first round at all (the closest geographically are Ed Howard of Chicago and Dillon Dingler of Massillon, Ohio), there is a lot of talent available for their later picks.
RHP Jeff Criswell, Michigan (hometown: Portage): Criswell is the top prospect among Michigan natives, a Portage native (near Kalamazoo) turned Wolverines starter. He holds a 2.88 ERA over three years in Ann Arbor and brings a solid three pitch mix highlighted by a mid 90's fastball, a good slider, and a fading changeup. There have been some command questions and he hasn't always been the most consistent pitcher, but with that three pitch mix, a 6'4" frame, and a track record in the Big Ten, he profiles as a solid second round arm. If he's still available for the Tigers' pick at #62, he could be a good fit. Full profile here.
OF Jordan Nwogu, Michigan (hometown: Ann Arbor): A graduate of Pioneer High School just down the road from Michigan's campus, Nwogu is actually on an academic scholarship for computer engineering, not an athletic one. That hasn't stopped him from being a career .334/.430/.545 hitter with 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases over 125 games for the Wolverines, showing one of the better power/speed combinations in the class. He's big and athletic at a listed 6'3", 235 pounds, though his swing is a bit awkward and he's fairly raw on both sides of the ball. He could come into play for the Tigers' picks at #102 and #132.
2B/C Zavier Warren, Central Michigan (hometown: Southfield): A product of Groves High School between Southfield and Birmingham in the Detroit suburbs, Warren is a guy who has just hit and hit wherever he's gone. He slashed .363/.498/.571 with eight home runs as a sophomore at Central Michigan in 2019, then hit well on the Cape as well. He's actually kind of the opposite of Nwogu, as he doesn't have a ton of power or speed but he just steadily gets the job done. Warren is a very patient hitter who hits a lot of line drives and who could be a utility infielder or decent regular at the big league level. He also has a little bit of experience behind the plate, which could seriously boost his value if he ends up moving back there and sticking. Like Nwogu, he figures into picks #102 and #132 for Detroit.
RHP Mason Erla, Michigan State (hometown: Cass City): The Thumb isn't known for producing a lot of baseball players, but Mason Erla has steadily risen from the small town of Cass City, about 50 miles northeast of Flint. A fairly unheralded recruit, he was solid but unspectacular over his first three years at Michigan State and went undrafted as a redshirt sophomore in 2019. That will change in 2020, as a huge uptick in his velocity helped him post a 1.04 ERA and a 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings this year. He now sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a solid slider/changeup combination and throws strikes with all three, though on the down side he'll turn 23 in August and might be ticketed for relief. He joins Nwogu and Warren as being in play at #102 and #132.
LHP Sam Weatherly, Clemson (hometown: Howell): Weatherly grew up in Howell, roughly halfway between Detroit and Lansing on I-96, but headed south to Clemson for college. He was a well-known recruit, but command issues kept him from really succeeding over his first two years with the Tigers. He still struggled to throw strikes in 2020, walking 14 in 22.2 innings, but he posted a 0.79 ERA and struck out 43 in that span and leapt up draft boards. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's but his bread and butter is an exceptional slider that's among the best left handed breaking balls in the class. His command could push him to the bullpen if he doesn't start throwing more strikes, but even small improvements could make him a very effective starter. If the Tigers are going to grab him, he probably makes the most sense at pick #102 if he's still available.
OF Joey Wiemer, Cincinnati (hometown: Temperance): We'll finish off with Joey Wiemer, who grew up in Temperance, just over the border from Toledo, Ohio. He headed down I-75 for school, and he's been a bit of a conundrum for scouts ever since. Standing 6'5" with long arms, long legs, and long hair, he's hard to miss on the baseball field. He sets up with an even more outlandish batting stance with lots of hand movement and bat wiggle, and it has contributed to an unremarkable .264/.379/.408 career line with twelve home runs and 35 stolen bases over 122 games for the Bearcats. He's shown pretty good plate discipline despite everything going on in his stance and swing, and the hope is that pro coaching could help him leap forward and reach his potential. He makes most sense at pick #132.
The Tigers' Position
Having to decide between two or more great players at 1-1 is a great problem to have. The current state of the system is very pitching-heavy, led by a "big three" of Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Tarik Skubal, with Mize having been the first overall pick in the 2018 draft. Now the MLB draft is very different from its NFL and NBA counterparts for a lot of reasons, but perhaps the biggest is this: you don't draft for need. If the Tigers believed the best player available was a pitcher like Asa Lacy or Emerson Hancock, they absolutely should have drafted one of the two, regardless of how pitching-heavy the system was. But the good news for the Tigers is that Torkelson and Martin are generally considered better players than Lacy and Hancock, so they can fill easily a need while still taking the best player available.
The Case for Spencer Torkelson
Position: 1B. 2020 Stats: 6 HR, .340/.598/.780, 15/31 K/BB.
My original profile written here
Spencer Torkelson has the best bat in the class, period. Over two-plus years at Arizona State, he cracked 54 home runs while slashing .337/.463/.729 with more walks (110) than strikeouts (104) across 129 games. The power is double plus, playing to all fields, against velocity and against good offspeed stuff, and with wood bats. The contact ability is plus as well, as Torkelson is adept at recognizing offspeed pitches, getting the barrel to the ball, and keeping his strikeouts down. There is no question that he is going to hit and hit for power in pro ball and in the majors. To boot, he's young for the class and won't turn 21 until August.
While Austin Martin is a no-doubt future plus hitter, Torkelson's bat is better. The quickest, easiest, and most robust way to get ROI on your top prospect is for him to hit, and Torkelson will do that. Martin is going to provide more defensive value, especially if he can stick at shortstop, but sometimes you just have to avoid the urge to get too cute and check all the boxes. There is a generational power prospect right there for the taking; just do it.
The Case for Austin Martin
Position: IF/OF. 2020 Stats: 3 HR, .377/.507/.660, 2/10 K/BB, 3 SB.
My original profile written here
Torkelson doesn't have a monopoly on the whole "being a special hitter" thing. Martin cut his strikeout rate from 16.8% as a freshman to 10.5% as a sophomore to a minuscule 2.9% as a junior – just two K's in sixteen games. Typically, that kind of contact is reserved for slap hitters or players who otherwise just kind of spray line drives around the field with little hope for double digit home run totals, but Martin doesn't fit that profile. He is a legitimate impact hitter who doesn't settle for weak contact, driving the ball with authority to all fields and over fences. He's hit 13 home runs in 81 games since the start of 2019, all while slashing .389/.490/.614 with just 36 strikeouts. While he doesn't project to be a true power hitter and certainly not Torkelson-esque in home run output, he should be good for anywhere from 15-25 home runs annually, all while putting up high on-base percentages in the .400 range. Alex Bregman had a remarkably similar profile in college, and he hit 41 home runs in 2019.
Martin is a hitting machine while also providing significantly more defensive value than Torkelson. Having watched Martin play various positions around the diamond, scouts have seen plenty to imply he could be an above average defender at shortstop. He has been surrounded by better defenders throughout his career, so he hasn't had the chance to prove it, but regardless, Martin will be providing value on both sides of the ball. Martin is the more well-rounded player, with a real chance of providing just as much offensive value as Torkelson with defense to boot. Don't let Torkelson's power distract from the fact that Martin is a special hitter who will have no trouble putting up big numbers against major league pitching with some speed to boot.
Other Options
LHP Asa Lacy, Texas A&M: The best pitcher in the class, Lacy is 14-5 with a 2.07 ERA and a 224/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 148 innings in his career at Texas A&M. He's big, he's mean, and he's left handed, which helps make his nasty four pitch mix play up with improving command to boot. Out of all the other options beyond Torkelson and Martin, Lacy seems like the "frontrunner among the dark horses" to go first overall. While that probably doesn't mean much given that the Tigers seem to be locking in on Tork, it is a testament to Lacy's immense upside combined with very little risk. Full profile here.
2B Nick Gonzales, New Mexico State: There are some that would argue that the only difference between Nick Gonzales and Austin Martin, at least offensively, is who they've played against. He is a career .399/.502/.747 hitter with 37 home runs and more walks (89) than strikeouts (79) in 128 games at New Mexico State. He hit .432/.532/.773 in 2019 then .448/.610/1.155 in 2020, and he also won the Cape Cod League MVP to prove his bat was for real. Still, the fact that he hasn't proved it day in and day out against SEC competition like Martin has, plus slightly worse defense, means that Martin remains a little bit ahead. His most likely landing spots are either the Royals at #4 or the Blue Jays at #5. Full profile here.
RHP Emerson Hancock, Georgia: Hancock entered the 2020 season as an early favorite to go first overall, drawing comparisons to 2018 first overall pick Casey Mize after putting up a 1.99 ERA as a sophomore. His best attribute is his command, which helps his very good four pitch arsenal play up significantly. Not just a finesse pitcher, Hancock can hit 99 and all three of his offspeed pitches flash plus, giving him an extremely well-rounded profile. However, while the players listed above continued to push their stock forward this year, Hancock remained more or less in the same spot after a couple of up-and-down outings against Richmond and Georgia Tech, and some question his lack of a true, wipeout offspeed pitch. For that reason, he has fallen just behind Lacy, and he is perhaps equally likely to end up going anywhere from fourth to seventh overall. Full profile here.
OF Zac Veen, Spruce Creek HS [FL]: Veen has steadily risen throughout the past calendar year, going from a fringe first rounder to a potential top ten pick to now having his name discussed as high as #4 to the Royals. The top high school prospect in the class, Veen has tremendous power projection in his 6'4" frame, with a beautiful left handed swing that figures to tap every bit of it without selling out. While he has shown some minor swing and miss concerns, they're not a huge deal and Veen's advanced plate discipline gives plenty of hope that they will never be an issue. Still, the college bats are much more proven than Veen and he would be a stretch for the Tigers at 1-1. Full profile here.
Michiganders for the Later Rounds
It's always fun to see guys go to their hometown team, and while no Michiganders are in the running for the first round at all (the closest geographically are Ed Howard of Chicago and Dillon Dingler of Massillon, Ohio), there is a lot of talent available for their later picks.
RHP Jeff Criswell, Michigan (hometown: Portage): Criswell is the top prospect among Michigan natives, a Portage native (near Kalamazoo) turned Wolverines starter. He holds a 2.88 ERA over three years in Ann Arbor and brings a solid three pitch mix highlighted by a mid 90's fastball, a good slider, and a fading changeup. There have been some command questions and he hasn't always been the most consistent pitcher, but with that three pitch mix, a 6'4" frame, and a track record in the Big Ten, he profiles as a solid second round arm. If he's still available for the Tigers' pick at #62, he could be a good fit. Full profile here.
OF Jordan Nwogu, Michigan (hometown: Ann Arbor): A graduate of Pioneer High School just down the road from Michigan's campus, Nwogu is actually on an academic scholarship for computer engineering, not an athletic one. That hasn't stopped him from being a career .334/.430/.545 hitter with 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases over 125 games for the Wolverines, showing one of the better power/speed combinations in the class. He's big and athletic at a listed 6'3", 235 pounds, though his swing is a bit awkward and he's fairly raw on both sides of the ball. He could come into play for the Tigers' picks at #102 and #132.
2B/C Zavier Warren, Central Michigan (hometown: Southfield): A product of Groves High School between Southfield and Birmingham in the Detroit suburbs, Warren is a guy who has just hit and hit wherever he's gone. He slashed .363/.498/.571 with eight home runs as a sophomore at Central Michigan in 2019, then hit well on the Cape as well. He's actually kind of the opposite of Nwogu, as he doesn't have a ton of power or speed but he just steadily gets the job done. Warren is a very patient hitter who hits a lot of line drives and who could be a utility infielder or decent regular at the big league level. He also has a little bit of experience behind the plate, which could seriously boost his value if he ends up moving back there and sticking. Like Nwogu, he figures into picks #102 and #132 for Detroit.
RHP Mason Erla, Michigan State (hometown: Cass City): The Thumb isn't known for producing a lot of baseball players, but Mason Erla has steadily risen from the small town of Cass City, about 50 miles northeast of Flint. A fairly unheralded recruit, he was solid but unspectacular over his first three years at Michigan State and went undrafted as a redshirt sophomore in 2019. That will change in 2020, as a huge uptick in his velocity helped him post a 1.04 ERA and a 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings this year. He now sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a solid slider/changeup combination and throws strikes with all three, though on the down side he'll turn 23 in August and might be ticketed for relief. He joins Nwogu and Warren as being in play at #102 and #132.
LHP Sam Weatherly, Clemson (hometown: Howell): Weatherly grew up in Howell, roughly halfway between Detroit and Lansing on I-96, but headed south to Clemson for college. He was a well-known recruit, but command issues kept him from really succeeding over his first two years with the Tigers. He still struggled to throw strikes in 2020, walking 14 in 22.2 innings, but he posted a 0.79 ERA and struck out 43 in that span and leapt up draft boards. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's but his bread and butter is an exceptional slider that's among the best left handed breaking balls in the class. His command could push him to the bullpen if he doesn't start throwing more strikes, but even small improvements could make him a very effective starter. If the Tigers are going to grab him, he probably makes the most sense at pick #102 if he's still available.
OF Joey Wiemer, Cincinnati (hometown: Temperance): We'll finish off with Joey Wiemer, who grew up in Temperance, just over the border from Toledo, Ohio. He headed down I-75 for school, and he's been a bit of a conundrum for scouts ever since. Standing 6'5" with long arms, long legs, and long hair, he's hard to miss on the baseball field. He sets up with an even more outlandish batting stance with lots of hand movement and bat wiggle, and it has contributed to an unremarkable .264/.379/.408 career line with twelve home runs and 35 stolen bases over 122 games for the Bearcats. He's shown pretty good plate discipline despite everything going on in his stance and swing, and the hope is that pro coaching could help him leap forward and reach his potential. He makes most sense at pick #132.
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