1-16: SS Ed Howard, Mount Carmel HS (IL)
2-51: LHP Burl Carraway, Dallas Baptist
3-88: OF Jordan Nwogu, Michigan
4-117: LHP Luke Little, San Jacinto CC
5-147: RHP Koen Moreno, Panther Creek HS (NC)
This is a pretty balanced draft class for the Cubs, and I think I like it overall. There's a lot of upside to play with here, and while there is significant risk in many of the picks, I don't think it's a crazy boom/bust class overall. Of course, the two highlights of the class are Chicago native Ed Howard and 6'8" fireballing lefty Luke Little, but the other three names are worthy of intrigue as well. I'm interested to see how this class turns out.
Full index of team reviews here
1-16: SS Ed Howard, Mount Carmel HS, IL (my rank: 21)
Ed Howard is one of the most likable players in the class, having played shortstop for the famed Jackie Robinson West Little League team that went to the Little League World Series in 2014. Six years later, he's a graduate of Mount Carmel High School in Chicago's Woodlawn neighborhood on the South Side. Some guys, you just like them the more you watch them play, and Howard is one of those. A gifted, natural athlete, he glides around the field and makes everything look easy out there. He's going to stick as a shortstop with natural instincts, arm strength, and range. At the plate, he's a balanced hitter with a good approach, the ability to make consistent hard contact, and some moderate present power. It's not the flashiest offensive profile at this point, but he's still filling out his 6'2" frame and his natural bat speed and feel for the barrel project to have him hitting for more and more impact as he develops and adds loft to his right handed stroke. That might point to 15-20 home runs per season with good on-base percentages, perhaps in somewhat of a Dansby Swanson profile with a bit more consistency. With good defense at shortstop, that's an all-around great profile. He signed at slot for $3.75 million instead of heading to Oklahoma for college. Pre-draft profile here.
2-51: LHP Burl Carraway, Dallas Baptist (my rank: 84)
College relievers haven't had the most appealing track record lately, but the ease of projection and lack of necessary development always gets teams to bite early. That's the case with Burl Carraway, the top reliever in the class who should fly through the minors. The College Station, Texas native has been dominant at Dallas Baptist over the past two seasons, posting a 2.47 ERA and an 89/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 innings for the Patriots. In 2020, he struck out 17 of the 37 batters he faced (46%). Carraway pitches bigger than his 6' frame, using a plus mid 90's fastball that gets a ton of riding life and misses barrels consistently. He adds in a plus curveball with great depth and power, and he can go to either pitch for his strikeouts consistently. However, he's also a mediocre strikethrower, with a high effort delivery that will for sure keep him in the bullpen and which has led him to walk 31 batters in 51.1 innings in his career. He doesn't quite need to get all the way to average command to succeed in the majors, but if the Cubs want an impact reliever, they'll at least have to get him close. If he can land his pitches in the zone more frequently, he has the stuff, and not to mention the bulldog bullpen mentality, to pitch in the major in the very near future. Personally, I'm not a big fan of drafting college relievers this early not only because of the lack of ceiling, but because the floor isn't as high as it appears. Teams often find successful relievers by accident just by converting starters they found in the 14th round, so biting this early seems unnecessary to me. That said, none of this is Carraway's fault, because his stuff and mentality are legitimate. They also saved money here, as his $1.05 million signing bonus was about $390,000 below slot, allowing the Cubs to go above slot later in the draft. If it breaks right, they might have found their closer of the future. Pre-draft profile here.
3-88: OF Jordan Nwogu, Michigan (my rank: 117)
This is definitely one of the more interesting players in the draft. Nwogu had three different types of scholarship offers coming out of Pioneer High School in Ann Arbor, between football, baseball, and academic. He actually took the academic scholarship and ended up at Michigan for computer engineering, but he's just as much braun as he is brains. He's done nothing but absolutely rake for the Wolverines, slashing .334/.430/.545 with 20 home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a 96/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 career games, perhaps the best hitter on the surprise Michigan team that went all the way to the College World Series Finals in 2019. Nwogu is a physical beast at 6'3" and 235 pounds, showing both speed and power. He's been an extremely consistent hitter for the Wolverines, driving the ball around the field and over fences, drawing walks, and stealing bases. However, his swing is pretty awkward, as his quick hands get the barrel to the ball really quickly but he has virtually no load at all, putting his hands in somewhat of an awkward hitting position. He's made it work to this point and brings a ton of offensive upside, perhaps 20-25 home runs annually with decent on base percentages if he can improve his pitch recognition a little bit. Defensively, his plus speed gives him a chance to stick in center field, but he's not the most natural defender and might be forced over to left. The last player who hasn't signed, he's looking at a $678,600 slot value, but the Cubs only have a little under $540,000 left in their bonus pool and he might have to take a slight discount.
4-117: LHP Luke Little, San Jacinto CC (my rank: 93)
Oh boy is this a fun one. As we've all heard by now, Luke Little is a 6'8" lefty who hit 105 with his fastball during a quarantine bullpen. And that wasn't a fluke, as he's consistently hit triple digits in games and sat 101-103 in that famous bullpen session. I have to commend his catcher, because I think trying to catch that would have sent most of us to the ICU. Little's fastball isn't straight, either, coming from a crossfire delivery that gives it great angle and makes it not only hard to catch up to, but to square up. He has a slider as well that has flashed plus, but it's inconsistent and tends to play closer to average. Behind the slider are a curveball and changeup, which both need significant work. Throughout his career, Little has struggled immensely to throw strikes, as he hadn't proven he could repeat his delivery and looked very uncoordinated on the mound. In the shortened 2020 season, he showed a cleaner delivery and improved strike throwing, but there is still considerable work to be done. The good news is that he's very young for a college sophomore and doesn't turn 20 until August, which to me means he might just need time to grow into his massive body. I think it's a long shot to project him as a starter, but if he grows into his body as expected, a triple digit lefty reliever with a refined slider and better command would be a sight to behold. He signed for $492,700, right at slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
5-147: RHP Koen Moreno, Panther Creek HS, NC (unranked)
For their final pick, the Cubs went out to the Raleigh-Durham high school ranks and grabbed right hander Koen Moreno for a big over slot deal. Moreno, who checks in at 6'2", is fairly new to pitching but already shows plenty of talent the Cubs are happy to get their hands on. His fastball currently sits around 90, but he's been steadily adding velocity and he's been up as high as 94 at times. He adds a slurvy breaking ball that shows great depth and shape, but it needs to add power to be effective in pro ball. There's a changeup as well, but as with most high schoolers, you need to use your imagination to project it. The Cubs are buying Moreno's athleticism and loose arm, projecting him to add power to his stuff as he fills out, rather than letting him get to East Carolina and pitch his way to a higher draft position. He throws enough strikes to be comfortable with the stuff, and he could take some big leaps forward in pro ball once the Cubs start working with him. His $900,000 signing bonus, which bought him out of that ECU commitment, was $532,100 above slot value.
Undrafted: OF Bradlee Beesley, Cal Poly (unranked)
A product of San Leandro in California's East Bay region, Beesley has been a consistent, if unspectacular, performer for four years at Cal Poly, slashing .286/.353/.378 with four home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 103/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 180 games. He's also hit well for two years in the elite Cape Cod League, proving his consistency further. He probably projects more as a fourth or fifth outfielder than as a starter, but he's a good runner that will stick in center field and get on base at a good rate, albeit without a ton of power. As a senior sign with great feel for the game, he could move quickly through what's left of the minor leagues.
Undrafted: SS Scott McKeon, Coastal Carolina (unranked)
McKeon is another Raleigh-Durham native, though he bounced from Brunswick CC over to Coastal Carolina and is four years older than Koen Moreno. He's done nothing but hit over two seasons with the Chanticleers, slashing .344/.407/.500 with seven home runs and a 68/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 games. He's got some wiry strength that was helping him tap a little more power in 2020, and while he'll never be a true slugger, the hope is that he can get close to average power in pro ball. He's a good runner that does pick up a lot of extra base hits, and while there isn't a ton of swing and miss, there's a little more than you would like out of a smaller senior sign like McKeon. He likely has the glove to stick at shortstop, which would take the most pressure off his bat and give him the best path to starting, but with Javier Baez entrenched at the position and Ed Howard coming up behind him, McKeon is more likely looking at a utility infield projection.
Undrafted: 1B/RHP Matt Mervis, Duke (unranked)
Here's a two-way player to track, even if he doesn't have a ton of upside. Mervis is a product of Georgetown Prep High School on the doorstep of Washington, DC, and he's improved considerably throughout his time at Duke. He's hit more than he's pitched, slashing .277/.378/.455 with nine home runs and a 52/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 71 games while also putting up a 1.74 ERA and a 10/6 strikeout to walk ratio in 10.1 innings over the last two seasons. At 6'4", he produces a lot of power from a quick left handed swing and was showing better plate discipline in 2020, profiling as perhaps a power hitting 1B/DH platoon type. On the mound, he shows a low 90's fastball and profiles best as a reliever, especially if he's going to keep hitting. The command is so-so.
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