1-15: RHP Mick Abel, Jesuit HS (OR)
3-87: SS Casey Martin, Arkansas
4-116: RHP Carson Ragsdale, South Florida
5-146: OF Baron Radcliff, Georgia Tech
The Phillies lost their second round pick after signing Zack Wheeler, but still pulled in a very high upside draft class. They went aggressive with their first two picks, pulling in arguably the top high school pitcher in the country and a fringe-first round talent, before rolling the dice on a couple of trajectory picks in the final two rounds. There is a lot of risk here, with each pick bringing a wide gap between their ceiling and floor, but each pick has a chance to provide a lot of impact and the Phillies. Additionally, they picked up a ton of talent in the undrafted free agent market, mostly high upside but definitely adding to the statistical probability that some will break through.
Full index of team reviews here.
1-15: RHP Mick Abel, Jesuit HS, OR (my rank: 11)
When scouting high school pitchers, the most basic traits scouts look for are present stuff, projection, and feel for pitching. Usually, these kids will stand out in one or two areas and teams will mold the rough edges from there, but in 2020, one high schooler had all three. The right-now stuff is pretty great. Abel sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and was running it into the upper 90's in bullpens this spring, and his full array of secondary pitches is just as impressive. He throws a plus slider with late, hard bite, adds an already solid curveball that he's still refining his feel for, and finishes it off with a very good changeup. Then you have the projection, as he has a very projectable, 6'5" frame that promises (and has steadily delivered) more velocity, as well as a repeatable delivery. Lastly, we have feel for pitching, which Abel has in spades. He's a plus strike thrower that hits his spots consistently, tunneling his four pitches off each other really well, changing hitters' eye levels, and keeping them off balance. As far as prep pitchers go, it's a pretty complete profile, though high school right handers are an extremely risky demographic early in the draft. The warning factors are minimal with Abel, with perhaps the biggest qualm being the fact that he hasn't proven he can hold his velocity over a full season, but as he adds strength to his big frame, evaluators expect him to do so. The Phillies love what they're getting here out of the Portland, Oregon native, and expect to develop him into a true ace so long as he stays healthy. Abel signed for $4.08 million, which was about $190,000 above slot. Pre-draft profile here.
3-87: SS Casey Martin, Arkansas (my rank: 33)
One of the biggest surprises in the draft was seeing Casey Martin fall from his projected comp round range all the way to the third round, though he did sign for second round money. The Lonoke, Arkansas native has been a productive, if a bit erratic, performer at Arkansas, slashing .311/.393/.545 with 30 home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 157/66 strikeout to walk ratio across 143 career games. Despite a smaller 5'11" frame, Martin shows above average raw power from the right side with an explosive swing and good hand eye-coordination that enables him to find the barrel more than you'd think. He's also an easy plus runner that has earned some plus-plus grades, which enabled him to pick up 38 doubles and three triples in his Razorbacks career in addition to his 24 stolen bases. The drawback here is that he plays the game at a very fast pace, likely a natural outgrowth of being a smaller kid from a smaller town leading an SEC team. His very aggressive approach at the plate has given him a career 23.8% strikeout rate, and at 31% this year, it hasn't exactly been improving. So even though he does have that natural ability to find the barrel despite an all-out swing, he still lacks the pitch recognition and patience needed to make it work in pro ball. It's a similar story on defense, as he clearly has the ability to stick at shortstop, but he isn't as reliable on the routine plays as he is on the highlight reel ones. Slowing the game down a bit could help him tremendously on both sides of the ball, and while calming his swing down might impact the power a little bit, he's still plenty strong enough to profile for 15-20 home runs a year even so. While pro ball is a different animal than college ball, the SEC is no joke and the fact that he's produced so loudly there is encouraging and he might need to add less polish than is apparent. I think a good comp here is Danny Espinosa, though Espinosa is a bit more consistent on the defensive end and Martin is a little faster. If shortstop doesn't work out, his speed could suit him well in center field. His $1.3 million signing bonus was $610,700 above slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
4-116: RHP Carson Ragsdale, South Florida (unranked)
A lanky kid coming out of the Tampa-area high school ranks, Carson Ragsdale was fairly unremarkable over the first two years of his career, putting up a 4.34 ERA and a 40/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.1 innings, then went down with Tommy John surgery and missed the 2019 season. Returning as a redshirt junior in 2020, he turned a lot of heads with a 2.84 ERA and a 37/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 19 innings, including a ten strikeout, one walk performance against Florida in his final start of the season. He's a huge guy at 6'8", showing a low 90's fastball that has bumped as high as 96 at times, as well as an above average curveball with good depth down in the zone. He struggled to find the strike zone early in his college career, but he was doing a much better job of throwing strikes in 2020, though his ability to accurately hit spots can still be erratic. Still, that's progress. With a pretty simple delivery, a durable frame, and improved strike throwing, there's a chance he could stick as a starter, but he'll have to keep trending up with that command as well as refine his changeup in order to do so. As a reliever, his fastball could sit closer to the mid 90's and he could get a little more consistent with his curve. As a redshirt junior, he already turned 22 in May, so he's a little older. He signed for $225,000, which was $272,500 below slot.
5-146: OF Baron Radcliff, Georgia Tech (unranked)
This is a fairly similar pick to Casey Martin, though Radcliff is a bit more trajectory than track record. He wasn't quite ready for college ball when he hit Georgia Tech's campus as a freshman, striking out about half the time, but he's cleaned it up a little bit and has been pretty productive over the past two seasons, slashing .257/.401/.515 with 15 home runs and a 91/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 74 games. Radcliff possesses tremendous raw power in his 6'4" frame that enables him to completely obliterate a baseball when he squares one up, and in those 15 home runs you'll find some absolute tape measure shots. It also means that he doesn't have to fully square the ball up to send it out of the yard. He's also a patient hitter that draws a lot of walks, but the swing and miss in his game also means that he strikes out a lot when he gets into those deep counts. Radcliff has been steadily improving in that regard, going from perhaps a 25-30 hit tool as a freshman to a 40 as a junior, but he still has a ways to go with his pitch recognition and execution. In the fifth round, especially since they under slotted him, I think it's worth the gamble, hoping that the steady progress he's made throughout his GT career will continue into pro ball and he could become a valuable platoon hitter. Radcliff is also a good runner, though center field might be a bit of a stretch. He signed for $100,000, which was $271,600 below slot.
Undrafted: RHP Noah Skirrow, Liberty (unranked)
Skirrow is a 6'3" right handed pitcher out of Liberty who has flashed impressive stuff. At times, he's been into the mid 90's with his fastball and has sat in the low 90's for long stretches at a time. However, there have been other times where he's dipped down into the upper 80's, and that's where he was for most of the 2020 season. He's shown both a curveball and a slider that have been a bit more consistent than his fastball velocity, which have enabled him to put up good numbers everywhere he's gone. His frame, ease of delivery, and four pitch mix should conceivably point to a career in the rotation, but the fact that he's been inconsistent with his velocity is slightly worrisome. The Phillies will hope to get him more consistently at the upper band of that velocity, but if he continues to fluctuate, he'll get pushed to the bullpen. On the bright side, his July birthday makes him relatively young for a college junior, so he has more time to develop.
Undrafted: RHP Billy Sullivan, Delaware (unranked)
This has a chance to be a really interesting pick for Philadelphia. He's a hometown guy who attended St. Mark's High School in the Wilmington area, and he was actually drafted by the Phillies in the 28th round back in 2018. He ended up at Delaware and had a fantastic freshman season, going 7-3 with a 2.97 ERA and a 95/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 72.2 innings, but he fell victim to Tommy John surgery two starts into his sophomore season and hasn't pitched since. Everything starts with the fastball for Sullivan, as he can sit in the mid 90's and has hit triple digits in the past. His low three quarters arm slot also puts some run on the ball and makes it extremely difficult to square up, even when it's not located precisely. Some might peg him as a reliever due to that lower arm slot in addition to longer arm action with a bit of wrist curl, though we're mostly going off what we saw as a freshman and a lot of these kids look like relievers at that point in their career. If the Phillies want to be patient, they could help him get more consistent with his secondary pitches and his command, and he does show some feel for both with a good changeup, a decent breaking ball, and the ability to fill up the zone (though not necessarily to hit spots). Definitely interesting upside here.
Undrafted: LHP Jake McKenna, Ocean City HS, NJ (unranked)
This one is pure upside. Another hometown kid, the Phillies plucked McKenna out of Ocean City High School out on the Jersey Shore, getting him to sign for just $20,000 instead of heading to St. John's. He's a huge, 6'6" lefty with two decent pitches for now, but the ceiling is definitely there. His fastball currently sits in the upper 80's, touching 91 at best, but he gets good downhill plane on the ball that makes it difficult to square up. He also adds a decent curveball that ranges from below average to average, though I like the shape he puts on it because it doesn't pop out of his hand. His delivery is mediocre and will need to be smoothed out considerably, perhaps even reworked, so you could easily see him getting more consistently into the low 90's down the road, especially as he fills out that huge 6'6" frame. It's a project, no doubt, but one the Phillies are happy to take on.
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