RHP Mick Abel, Jesuit HS [OR]
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DoB: 8/18/2001. Commitment: Oregon State
Mick Abel is your classic lanky high schooler that looks like a future ace if you dream hard enough. Fortunately, you don't have to dream that hard to see it in Abel, who has firmly established himself in the top tier of high school arms with Jared Kelley and Nick Bitsko. He mowed down quality opponents over the summer and was ready to completely shut down Portland-area hitters when the season shut down on him. Oregon hasn't produced a high school prospect of this caliber in a long time, though the Portland area did produce Adley Rutschman after he went down to Corvallis and raked for three years at Oregon State, where Abel is committed to play.
It's classic projection here. Abel stands at 6'5" and is listed south of 200 pounds, giving him plenty of room to grow into his lanky frame and add velocity and durability. For now, his velocity is inconsistent, though he has shown the ability to sit in the mid 90's for long stretches at a time and he has reportedly been in the upper 90's in bullpen work this spring. Add 20-30 pounds of good weight, and he could be consistently touching the upper 90's and sitting around 95-96 when it's all said and done. Abel's best secondary pitch is his slider, which has excellent late bite to it down in the zone and which can get consistently into the mid 80's. He also adds a curveball, which he throws less often and which can soften up at times, but it has good shape to it and he just needs to tighten it up so that it can play off his slider, which has more lateral movement. His changeup is also advanced for a high schooler with nice fade off the plate, and it looks like a fastball coming out of his hand and generates a lot of swings and misses.
Abel has very good command for a high school pitcher, especially one that's so lanky. It's not just his fastball that he can spot, as he does a great job of locating that slider down and away from righties and the changeup down and away from lefties. He can lose his release point occasionally, which can cause the ball to sail up and inside to right handed hitters, but that's really nitpicking. It's above average command for now with a good chance to end up plus. One area for Abel to work is on his durability, as he started to sit closer to 90 towards the end of the summer. This isn't uncommon in high school pitchers, especially for string beans like Abel, and adding good weight should mitigate the problem. He will turn 19 in August, making him a little older than most of his peers, which is something to keep in mind but ultimately but it shouldn't affect his stock.
Overall, it's clear ace upside. Abel has the velocity, secondary pitches, and command to succeed at the highest level. Throw that onto a projectable 6'5" frame and the sky is the limit. While there is some rawness in his game, he's been improving quickly and he's way ahead of most projection arms. As arguably the top high school pitcher in the class, Abel has a real shot at going in the top ten picks, but he also comes with more risk than probably any other player you'll see mentioned in top ten conversations just due to the fact that he's a high school right hander. Teams are reportedly trying to play it safe this year by emphasizing track record, which works against high schoolers like Abel, but the upside is so immense that he still probably doesn't slide out of the top half of the first round unless signability becomes a big factor.
Summer game footage
More summer game footage
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