OF Garrett Mitchell, UCLA
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DoB: 9/4/1998. B/T: L/R
2020 Stats: 0 HR, .355/.425/.484, 5 SB, 3/6 K/BB in 15 games
I was a big fan of Mitchell coming out of Orange Lutheran High School in 2017, the same school that produced Gerrit Cole, and I ranked him 38th on my draft list that year while MLB Pipeline and Baseball America ranked him 54th and 62nd, respectively. After two-plus years at UCLA, he has emerged as perhaps the most gifted player in the 2020 class. After an unremarkable freshman season, he showed off his ability with a .349/.418/.566 line, six home runs, and 18 stolen bases in 62 games in 2019, and he kept on hitting with a .355/.425/.484 line through 15 games in 2020.
In recent memory, there hasn't been a player with Mitchell's combination of polish, raw power, and speed to come through the draft. He can flat out put on a show in batting practice, with the ability to hit the ball as far as anyone in the college game. Mitchell can run, too, with his plus-plus speed serving him well both on the bases and in center field. Throw in a strong arm, and he's the toolsiest player in this draft class. He also makes consistent hard contact against high level pitching in the Pac-12, which should enable him to continue to hit for high averages in pro ball. Mitchell's plate discipline has improved steadily throughout his college career, with his strikeout rate dropping from 22.6% as a freshman to 14.0% as a sophomore and down to 4.1% in a small sample as a junior. Meanwhile, his walk rate improved from 6.2% to 9.2% to 8.2% over the same span, further implying progress in that area.
One thing that leaves scouts wanting more is the discrepancy between Mitchell's raw power and his game power. We all know that his raw power is outstanding, but it has played much more to the gaps (24 doubles and 15 triples in 121 career college games) than it has over the fence (just six home runs in that span and none in 15 games in 2020). Mitchell's line drive approach has worked well for him in college, but in order to justify himself as a top five pick, scouts wanted more proof that he'll be able to turn those doubles and triples into home runs at the next level, and unfortunately he won't get a chance to do that in 2020. They also want to see him get a bit more patient at the plate, as his walk rates have remained low throughout college and he will be better off being a bit more selective against pro pitching in order to really tap that power.
A smaller but present concern that some teams with Mitchell is the fact that he has Type 1 diabetes. Personally though, I'm not concerned about that. He has proven more than capable of managing it so far in his college career, and players like Sam Fuld, Brandon Morrow, and Mark Lowe have all had success with the condition. I may be a bit biased in all this because my fiancée is a Type 1 diabetic as well and she once won a horse jumping competition with extremely high blood sugar, but I stand firm.
Mitchell's range of outcomes in pro ball are wider than the typical high level college player. It's possible that pro coaching could unlock that game power and make him an annual 30-30 threat, especially with the consistent feel for the barrel and hitting in general he's shown so far. That five tool projection gives him a tremendous ceiling, and it's what puts him close to the top tier of draft prospects this year. However, the fact that he remains unproven in several areas of his game clouds that projection a bit, just enough to knock him just out of that first tier of players in this class. That ceiling makes him a virtual lock to go in the top half of the first round, though he's dropped a bit closer to the middle of the first round than the very front. He was a bit of a dark horse candidate to go first overall to the Tigers, though now without the opportunity to tap that game power nor the opportunity to show he can manage the diabetes over another 60-70 game season, that won't happen.
Batting practice and game footage with the US College National Team
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