1B Spencer Torkelson, Arizona State
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DoB: 8/26/1999. B/T: R/R
2020 Stats: 6 HR, .340/.598/.780, 2 SB, 15/31 K/BB in 17 games
When the sports world went dark, Spencer Torkelson occupied the number one spot on my top draft prospects list and it looks like he'll stay there for the foreseeable future (*update, I've since gone back and forth on the two for a while). Now looking like the favorite to go first overall, he draws a lot of comparison the White Sox' Andrew Vaughn. Both Torkelson and Vaughn come from Pac-12 programs, put up ridiculous numbers there, play first base, are similarly built, bat and throw right handed, possess plus raw power and strong plate discipline, and even grew up just a couple towns apart in Sonoma County, California. While Vaughn might have stronger plate discipline, Torkelson has him beat in the power department, and they both are likely to become impact bats at the major league level.
Torkelson's value is drawn from the bat. He hit .351/.446/.707 with 23 home runs as a sophomore at Arizona State in 2019, then was following that up with a .340/.598/.780 line through 17 games in 2020 when the season shut down. He possesses plus-plus power that enables him to hit the ball out of any park to any field, but he gets to it with a simple right handed swing that helps all of it play up in games. That gives him easy 40 home run upside, and he should post high on-base percentages as well. He's a very patient hitter who walked in 14.2% of his plate appearances in 2019 then bumped it up to a ridiculous 37.8% in 2020 as teams refused to pitch to him. Defensively, he can at least provide some value as a solid first baseman, maybe not a Gold Glover but one who can make all of the routine plays. Additionally, because he won't turn 21 until August, he's one of the younger college players available this year, the cherry on top of a great offensive profile.
There are very few downsides to Torkelson's profile. He strikes out at a reasonable clip, 15.6% in 2019 and 18.3% in 2020, but it's not nearly enough to be worried about his hit tool. While he'll have to hit to provide value as a first baseman, the risk remains very low as he's a virtual lock to hit at a high level. There is no question it's one of the best bats to come around in years.
I think his most probable outcome as a player is something along the lines of Pete Alonso's rookie year as a first baseman who can anchor a lineup with big raw power and get to it consistently. While that may not be the most exciting upside as a first overall pick, I would say he has a much better chance of reaching that upside than the typical early draft prospect has of reaching his own upside. It's exciting think about what he could do in the middle of a big league lineup, and the Tigers' offense-starved system could really use a bat like that to get things going. If they decide to go another route, I don't see how the Orioles could pass up his bat at pick #2.
Batting practice video
Game footage
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