Nick Gonzales and the Importance of the Cape Cod League

Another massive game on Sunday, in which he hit for the cycle against Iona while tacking on an extra home run to make it a five hit day, added another feather to the cap of New Mexico State second baseman Nick Gonzales' incredible start to his season. Through eight games, the Tucson, Arizona native is slashing .567/.698/1.433 with seven home runs, three doubles, a triple, 26 RBI, 17 runs scored, and just four strikeouts to ten walks and three hit by pitches. Throw in an equally incredible sophomore season, and in 63 games since the start of 2019, these are Gonzales' numbers:

23 HR, 106 RBI, .448/.554/.852, 34 K, 55 BB, 14 HBP

Now, there are caveats to those numbers. The first is that New Mexico State plays in the Western Athletic Conference, which brings a fairly weak in-conference schedule. Meanwhile, Presley Askew Field sits nearly four thousand feet above sea level, and the dry desert air combines with the elevation to give the park a Coors Field-like effect – without the humidifier. Still, you could tell me that Carlos Beltran was sitting in the dugout banging a trash can on offspeed pitches, and those numbers would still be extremely impressive. 

Even before the summer, he was a first round prospect. However, projecting him required a lot of assumptions because you don't truly get to see a hitter's skill level when he's playing in Coors Field against mediocre competition with a metal bat. You could sell a scouting director on the first round – Gonzales has an exceptionally quick swing from the right side of the plate and finds the barrel with almost laughable consistency, and his work ethic, as detailed here by Baseball America (subscription required), is off the charts. But convincing the higher ups to spend a top ten pick on a kid as unproven as Gonzales would be tough.

Enter the Cape Cod League. Fortunately for Nick, there was a place he could go to push all of those doubts aside, and perhaps no player had more to prove with wood bats in a neutral environment against professional-caliber competition. Long story short, he hit .349/.445/.599 with eight home runs and a 29/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games, taking home the MVP award in the process. Suddenly, all the caveats were lifted and Gonzales became a potential top five pick.

The truth is the Cape Cod League serves as a fantastic opportunity for players across competition levels from Division III to the SEC, just so long as they're prepared to compete with the best amateur players in the country. But for Nick Gonzales, it allowed him to prove to evaluators what he already knew about himself: that yes, his video game numbers at New Mexico State are indicative of a potential All Star who can hit for power and average in the big leagues. There's no question that Gonzales is a special hitter. As I mentioned before, there might not be a player in amateur baseball, even Vanderbilt's Austin Martin or Arizona State's Spencer Torkelson, who finds his barrel more consistently and more easily than Nick Gonzales, no matter the level of competition. He has gains to make with his defense at second base and at this point he doesn't profile as a 30+ home run bat like Torkelson, but it is really easy to see him hitting 20-25 home runs per year with on-base percentages approaching .400. 

There's not much more he can prove against New Mexico State's weak schedule and in their homer-happy home park, but they do travel to College Station the weekend of March 6th to take on Asa Lacy and Texas A&M. Lacy is jostling with Gonzales for position inside those top five picks, and those at bats will be must-see TV. Had Gonzales not played on the Cape, they would be easily the most important at bats of his amateur career in terms of his draft stock. They'll still be watched closely by evaluators and certainly remain a great opportunity for Gonzales, Lacy, and other A&M arms like Christian Roa, but thanks to the Cape Cod League, we already know exactly who Gonzales is as a hitter, and we like it.