1-4: LHP Asa Lacy, Texas A&M
CBA-32: SS Nick Loftin, Baylor
2-41: RHP Ben Hernandez, De La Salle HS (IL)
3-76: OF Tyler Gentry, Alabama
4-105: LHP Christian Chamberlain, Oregon State
5-135: RHP Will Klein, Eastern Illinois
When Heston Kjerstad and Max Meyer went second and third overall to the Orioles and Marlins, respectively, the Royals found themselves with an incredible choice at fourth overall: Austin Martin, the best all-around player in the draft, or Asa Lacy, by most accounts the best pitcher in the class. Having had huge success with their 2018 draft class full of college pitchers, they went with Lacy here, and they're hoping to see similar success. Behind Lacy, the Royals went over slot to bring in shortstop Nick Loftin, then went under slot the rest of the way. Ben Hernandez and Tyler Gentry bring nice upside, while Christian Chamberlain and Will Klein at the back of the draft are opposites on the mound to finish it out. I think it's a nice class, though I'm not too thrilled with the back half of the class, even considering they went under slot. However, they did make up for that with a fantastic run through the undrafted free agent market and were the only team to pick up a player who placed in my pre-draft rankings. One interesting geographic note here is that five of the six players were drafted out of the Central Time Zone (plus three of the top four UDFA signings), keeping it regional for the Royals. Yet another theme here was youth, as Lacy, Chamberlain, and Klein are all young for college juniors and Gentry is slightly on the younger side as well (though Hernandez is older for a high schooler).
Full index of team reviews here.
1-4: LHP Asa Lacy, Texas A&M (my rank: 3)
Choosing between Austin Martin and Asa Lacy at fourth overall was a best case scenario for the Royals, and they ended up with the arm. Lacy was a projectable lefty coming with top three rounds potential coming out of Tivy High School in Kerrville, Texas in 2017, but he bet on himself and headed to Texas A&M to grow his game. That's exactly what happened, and between his sophomore and junior seasons, Lacy went 11-4 with a 1.84 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 176/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 112.2 innings. The first thing you notice from the imposing 6'4" lefty is that he's big and Hill Country mean on the mound, aggressively attacking hitters with equally big stuff. The fastball sits comfortably in the mid 90's and tops out at 98, really exploding out of his hand with a heavy front shoulder pull right before release. Next comes a wipeout slider that stands out equally for its upper 80's velocity and its tremendous depth, sending hitters spinning. He adds a solid curveball that can flash above average as well and usually plays at least average, and his changeup isn't seen often but flashes plus when he does throw one. His command has steadily improved from below average in high school to average as a sophomore to perhaps a bit above average as a junior, giving scouts full confidence he can make the most of his nasty stuff. Now that he's throwing more strikes, it's really hard to find many holes in his profile. He has the velocity, wipeout breaking ball, full arsenal, command, size, track record, and perhaps most importantly, bulldog mentality to become a true impact starter, perhaps even an ace. In the Mariners writeup, I described Emerson Hancock as the most complete pitcher in the class due to his better command and mastery of mixing his four pitches, but Lacy is really close in that regard and has an even higher ceiling. His $6.67 million signing bonus was just about $6,000 above slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
CBA-32: SS Nick Loftin, Baylor (my rank: 28)
For their next pick, the Royals went back to Texas and grabbed Baylor's Nick Loftin, a three year performer for the Bears who slashed .313/.371/.481 with 14 home runs and a 48/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 career games. The Corpus Christi native has long been known for his elite bat to ball skills, but he's been finding the barrel more and more throughout his time in Waco and slashed a career-high .544 in the shortened 2020 season. The added power was apparent when he blasted a home run off LSU starter Landon Marceaux that left Houston's Minute Maid Park over the train tracks. That's not too shabby for a contact hitter. There are some slight concerns that his power increase in 2020 came with a slight bump in his slight swing and miss, but it was so low beforehand and remained low enough this year that I'm not concerned about it. That's a true plus hit tool and even if he settles for fringe-average power, we could be talking a high on-base guy that can knock 10-15 home runs a year in a middle of the road projection. As a consistent defender at shortstop who gets the job done, that will definitely play, though the presence of Bobby Witt Jr. in this farm system (another Texan from the Fort Worth suburbs) might bump Loftin to second base. That's okay, because he still has the bat to profile there and should be well above average at the position. At his absolute floor, Loftin will still be a valuable utility infielder, but I expect much more than that and the Royals do too. His $3 million signing bonus was about $742,700 above slot value, so they're completely bought in. Pre-draft profile here.
2-41: RHP Ben Hernandez, De La Salle HS, IL (my rank: 63)
By ranking him 63rd, I was a bit higher on Ben Hernandez than MLB Pipeline (#72) and Baseball America (#86), but it seems like the Royals liked him even more than I did. Because they got him under slot here, I will endorse it. Hernandez attended high school on the South Side of Chicago just blocks from the White Sox' Guaranteed Rate Field, and he's most well known for having the best changeup in the high school class. It has tremendous fade to the arm side and that sent prep hitters flailing and will continue to freeze batters in pro ball and beyond. Far from a one trick pony, he also has an above average fastball that sits in the low 90's and can bump as high as 95, jumping out of his hand from a natural motion. He commands the two pitches well and can tunnel them off each other, and if he adds a little bit of fastball velocity, it won't just be the changeup that's deadly. For now, his curveball is below average, with nice shape at times but not enough power to really be a swing and miss pitch. If he leaves it up, it's a home run ball in the minors. Still, between the velocity, changeup, command, and a sturdy 6'2" frame, he has plenty of starter traits right now and so long as he stays healthy, he's pretty low risk as far as high school pitchers go. To get the most out of him, though, the Royals will really want to refine that curveball into at least an average pitch, and his age does work against him a little bit, having turned 19 a few weeks after the draft. Committed to a smaller program in the University of Illinois-Chicago, he instead signed with the Royals for $1.45 million, about $360,000 below slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
3-76: OF Tyler Gentry, Alabama (my rank: 142)
This was probably my least favorite pick the Royals made, even though they got him under slot (barely). Tyler Gentry grew up in the Memphis area and began his career at Walters State CC on the other side of Tennessee, then transferred to Alabama as a sophomore and hit .310/.378/.552 with 13 home runs and a 51/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. After a so-so summer in the Cape Cod League, he burst out of the gate with a .429/.554/.750 slash line, four home runs, and a much more balanced 10/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games to start the 2020 season. After striking out in 21.4% of his plate appearances as a sophomore and 26.5% of the time on the Cape, he dropped that number to 13.5% in 2020, albeit against a weak non-conference schedule. His best tool is above average raw power that comes to him naturally from a simple right handed swing, and he's tapped that power consistently everywhere he's gone, including the Cape (though it played more to the gaps than over the fence there). However, he has an extremely aggressive approach that led to those big strikeout totals listed above, and since his 2020 competition was relatively weak, I don't necessarily buy the better plate discipline just yet. Fortunately, his strikeout concerns come more from chasing bad pitches than they do from swinging through hittable pitches, so the Royals believe they can pull together his hit tool if they just work with him on his pitch recognition. Either way, he might not move as quickly through the minors, at least at first, as other college bats. Gentry is also a good runner who might be able to handle center field and should at least be above average in right field, helping his overall profile. I'm not completely sold on his ability to handle pro pitching, but there is nice upside here as a 25-30 home run bat with workable on-base percentages and solid defense. He signed for $750,000, which was $68,200 below slot value.
4-105: LHP Christian Chamberlain, Oregon State (unranked)
Chamberlain just barely missed my rankings, riding a breakout junior season to a fourth round selection. He put up a 3.69 ERA and a 106/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 innings as a reliever over his first two seasons at Oregon State, then successfully transitioned to the rotation with a 0.82 ERA, a 0.77 WHIP, and a 34/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 innings this year. That wasn't just beating up on mediocre competition, as it included a 12 strikeout, no run performance against a loaded Mississippi State lineup. He's undersized at 5'10", but he brings big stuff. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's at best, though later in his starts it can tick down a little. He also brings an above average curveball with two plane break, as well as a solid changeup. All three pitches play up from a funky delivery with long arm action, as he hides the ball well behind his back thigh before bringing it back up for the release. All that movement means the command is so-so, as he's generally around the zone but doesn't hit his spots as consistently as you'd like. I see him more as a reliever, especially in this system that's already deep in starting pitching, where his fastball could sit more consistently in the mid 90's and his curve could add a little power. Given his ability to miss bats consistently, which he has shown against quality lineups as well, I could see him being a really interesting bullpen arm. As a bonus, the Reno, Nevada native only turns 21 a few days after this is set to go out. He signed for $450,000, which was about $104,300 below slot.
5-135: RHP Will Klein, Eastern Illinois (unranked)
While Christian Chamberlain is a 5'10" lefty, Will Klein is the exact opposite as a huge 6'5" righty. Klein grew up just down the street from Indiana University in Bloomington, but headed across the state line to Eastern Illinois for college. As you might expect, he's a power arm with a huge fastball that sits in the low to mid 90's as a starter and can touch 99 in relief, and his power breaking ball is an above average pitch as well. However, even though his changeup and command took steps forward in 2020, they both need further work to be workable in pro ball. He's a decent starting pitching prospect that could work his way into a #4-ish role with further refinement, but we already know how it plays in the bullpen (better) and this system has a ton of starting pitching anyways. The stuff goes from solid to very good in the bullpen and he doesn't have to worry about his changeup, which lets him get away with that fringy command a bit more. Klein signed for $200,000, which was $214,000 below slot value.
Undrafted: C Kale Emshoff, Arkansas-Little Rock (my rank: 150)
The Royals really cleaned up in the undrafted free agent market, and they were the only team to sign a player who cracked rankings. Kale Emshoff also gives them a second Corpus Christi native in this draft cycle, joining Baylor's Nick Loftin, though Emshoff headed out of state to catch for UALR. He didn't hit much as a freshman in 2017 and was solid in 2018, but he missed the 2019 season with Tommy John surgery. Returning as a redshirt junior in 2020, he got off to a white hot start, slashing .417/.527/.800 with seven home runs and an 11/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games. He produces a plus power from a 6'2" frame that he got to with incredible ease in 2020, and he proved it against advanced pitching with a home run off Cardinals draftee Ian Bedell in the fall. He's worked to cut down the swing and miss in his game and better control the zone, which was apparent in 2020, and even though he turned 22 in May, it's coming together as quite the offensive package. The fact that he can stick at catcher makes the bat look a lot more valuable, and though he's a so-so defender overall, he should be able to stick back there with a little refinement. The ultimate projection is that of a bat-first backup catcher who you can slot into the lineup without sacrificing much offense, with the chance to hit his way into a starting role if he continues the hot hitting we saw this spring. For just $20,000 in the undrafted free agent market, this is a huge win for the Kansas City organization.
Undrafted: OF Tucker Bradley, Georgia (unranked)
Chickamauga, Georgia isn't the world's largest city as an outer suburb of Chattanooga, but it produced two of the Georgia Bulldogs' top players this year in Padres over slot third rounder Cole Wilcox and Royals signee Tucker Bradley. Bradley hit .303/.359/.360 with three home runs over his first two-plus seasons with the Bulldogs, though he missed most of his junior season with a shoulder injury and returned as a redshirt junior this year. Much like Emshoff, he returned from that injury in a big way, slashing .393/.525/.738 with six home runs and a 3/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games in the shortened season, and while it was a pretty weak schedule overall, he did go 5-14 with two home runs in a weekend series against Georgia Tech. He's been much more of a line drive hitter throughout his career in Athens, but he started tapping into some real power in 2020 while maintaining excellent plate discipline. Given that he's an ordinary defender in the outfield who could be decent in right field or solid average in left field, the bat will have to carry him, but scouts have long loved his ability to find ways to impact the game. He's a high baseball-IQ player who does the little things right, and that baseball karma seemed to manifest itself with the increased impact he showed in 2020. It's probably a bit optimistic to project him as a full time player, but he has the all-around bat to profile as a solid fourth outfield type. Another good find in the UDFA market.
Undrafted: C Saul Garza, Louisiana State (unranked)
Garza grew up in the Rio Grande Valley in the southern tip of Texas, then raked at Howard CC before transferring to LSU in 2019. He put up a strong first season in Baton Rouge with a .303/.358/.476 line and five home runs, but ran into some bad BABIP luck with a .229/.321/.479 with three home runs to start the 2020 season. He generates solid raw power from a quick right handed swing, power which he still got to even as his numbers dipped a little in 2020. A decent defender, he should be able to stick behind the plate and that certainly helps his bat profile a little better, but his bat will have to push him past other catchers within the system because his glove won't. It's an interesting backup catcher profile, especially if he continues to tap power in pro ball. Like most of the other undrafted free agents the Royals picked up, he's already 22.
Undrafted: RHP John McMillon, Texas Tech (unranked)
McMillon is yet another Texan to go with Lacy, Loftin, Emshoff, and Garza, growing up in Jasper and heading 500 miles across the state to Texas Tech. Holding a career 3.41 ERA and a 189/110 strikeout to walk ratio over 145.1 career innings, he has very clear strengths and weaknesses. The 6'3" righty can get up to triple digits with his explosive fastball, and his slider has nice hard, downward bite that routinely misses bats. However, there is a lot of rocking around and back and forth weight transfer in his delivery that makes it hard for him to stay on line to the plate, giving him well below average command. For that reason, he's almost certainly a reliever at the next level, a role he has a lot of experience in at Texas Tech anyways. If the Royals can calm down his delivery a little bit and get his command closer to average, the power fastball/slider combination will play really well late in games.
LHP A.J. Block, Washington State: 2-1, 3.25 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 34/5 K/BB in 27.2 IP
1B Matt Schmidt, Michigan: 1 HR, .212/.333/.364, 0 SB, 17/6 K/BB in 12 games
RHP Chase Wallace, Tennessee: 1-1, 3.50 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 18/7 K/BB in 18 IP
No comments:
Post a Comment