In my opinion, this is the best system in the minors – the Padres might have an argument if Brendan McKay had thrown one more inning in the majors, but he sits at 49 heading in 2020, keeping him technically a rookie. This system is just so deep everywhere you look, and I think that starts with the infield. Wander Franco is just 18 years old and already tackled High A with flying colors, making him arguably the best prospect in baseball at any position, while guys like Vidal Brujan, Xavier Edwards, and Greg Jones all have star potential as well. The outfield doesn't have any of those true stud prospects, but Josh Lowe and Randy Arozarena lead a deep group that's bound to have more than a few guys pan out. On the mound, McKay and the long-injured Brent Honeywell are major league ready arms with ace upside, while guys like Shane McClanahan, Shane Baz, JJ Goss, Seth Johnson, and Resly Linares ooze with upside as well. Behind them, there's a whole group of less well-known arms that broke out in 2019, most notably Joe Ryan, Tommy Romero, and Michael Plassmeyer. The amount of talent here is just unreal.
Affiliates: AAA Durham Bulls, AA Montgomery Biscuits, High A Charlotte Stone Crabs, short season Hudson Valley Renegades, rookie level Princeton Rays, complex level GCL and DSL Rays
Catcher
- Ronaldo Hernandez (2020 Age: 22): Hernandez has hit his way up through the minors, including knocking 21 home runs in 2018, though the pitcher-friendly Florida State League might have sapped his offense a bit as he slashed .265/.299/.397 with nine home runs and a 65/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 games at High A Charlotte. He has high upside at the plate, given his great ability to make contact and his explosive right handed swing. He gets the ball in the air, but he does need to add actual loft to his swing rather than just hitting the bottom of the ball to tap his power more often against advanced pitching. He's young enough to make those adjustments, and certainly talented enough given that he's so adept at making contact and maintains such an explosive swing. Defensively, he has a strong arm and is otherwise capable behind the plate, taking some pressure off his bat (not that it needs to be off), and overall he has the ceiling of a starting catcher who can hit 20-25 home runs per season. He'll just need to shake off an up and down 2019.
- Brett Sullivan (2020 Age: 26): Sullivan was a 17th round pick out of Pacific in 2015, but he's hit at every stop along the way in the minors and now looks like a nice backup option in the near future. In 2019, he slashed .280/.333/.459 with ten home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 48/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 102 games at AA Montgomery, showing a power/patience/speed combination you don't typically see in a catcher. He's got some nice power from the left side, and he manages the strike zone extremely well and is tough to strike out, which has helped his power play up. Defensively, he's decent behind the plate but is also athletic enough to handle almost any position on the field except shortstop and of obviously pitcher. The Rays won't let him hold back Hernandez, who is easily the superior prospect, but Sullivan has the chance to hit his way onto the major league club as a versatile C/IF/OF super-utility type with some power.
- Keep an eye on: Rene Pinto, Chris Betts
Corner Infield
- Brendan McKay (2020 Age: 24): I'm going to list McKay twice. Drafted as the fourth overall pick out of Louisville in 2017, McKay's arm is ahead of his bat at this point, as he slashed just .200/.298/.331 with five home runs and a 51/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games at AA Montgomery and AAA Durham. Additionally, he homered and singled in ten at bats in the majors, striking out twice and walking once. He generates plus power from a leveraged left handed swing, and he's controlled the strike zone exceptionally well throughout his career until he reached the upper minors in 2019. However, he hasn't quite gotten to that power as much as he would have liked to in pro ball, as he's hit too many ground balls to truly tap it. I'm sure that could easily be remedied if he gave up pitching and focused on hitting. Of course, given that he's a better pitcher than hitter, that won't happen, nor should it. I wouldn't expect him to hit like Shohei Ohtani in the majors, but he could be a nice bench or platoon bat that only has to worry about staying fresh against right handed pitchers. Or, it might just be time that he needs instead of specialized focus, and he could end up as a legitimate high on-base power hitter. I'd expect the former projection though for the DH.
- Kevin Padlo (2020 Age: 23-24): Padlo was a Rockies' fifth round pick out of a Southern California high school back in 2014, and he came over to the Rays in the Jake McGee/Corey Dickerson trade in 2016. He broke out offensively in 2019, slashing .265/.389/.538 with 21 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 116/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at AA Montgomery and AAA Durham, which is huge given that he's a corner infielder who needs to hit to provide value. Padlo has the power to hit the ball out of any park and the patience to draw plenty of walks and get his pitch to hit, though he also has some swing and miss in his game that makes it difficult for him to profile as a long term starter at first or third base. The Rays don't have any true roadblocks at either of those positions, but they also have a lot of depth that might make it difficult to break through. He does crush left handed pitching, which on a team like the Rays that loves to mix and match, might actually be better for his overall outlook than if he hit both lefties and righties equally.
- Keep an eye on: Jim Haley, Dalton Kelly, Jake Guenther
Middle Infield
- Wander Franco (2020 Age: 19): I typically go in order from top of the minors to bottom, but being that Franco is the second coming of Fernando Tatis Jr. and likely the top prospect in baseball, he'll earn the first spot in the middle infield section even from A ball. Franco was signed out of the Dominican Republic for $3.8 million in 2017, and that's already looking like an absolute bargain. He tore up the rookie level Appalachian League to the tune of a .351/.418/.587 line in 2018 at an age when most Dominican signees are still on the island, then in 2019, he slashed .327/.398/.487 with nine home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 35/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at Class A Bowling Green and High A Charlotte. Franco has top of the scale plate discipline that has enabled him to walk significantly more than he's struck out at every level despite being significantly younger than his competition the whole time, and his elite feel for the barrel enables him to make hard contact in virtually every at bat. For now, he's more of a line drive hitter, but he played the entire 2019 season at just 18 years old and his explosive hands and bat make it easy to project him for at least above average power if not better. Defensively, he has a strong arm but it's unclear where he'll end up in the infield, but given that he's just a teenager, he does have plenty of time to refine his actions at shortstop. Overall, that's about as complete of a skill set as you can have for a teenager, and it's easy to project him as hitting anywhere from 15 to 30 home runs per season with on-base percentages north of .400 and some stolen bases to boot. He probably starts 2020 in AA, but if he hits as expected, there's a non-zero chance he could force his way onto the big league roster by the end of the season.
- Vidal Brujan (2020 Age: 22): While Franco deservedly gets most of the hype as the potential shortstop of the future, but Vidal Brujan gives the Rays another elite middle infield prospect coming through the ranks. Listed at just 5'9" and 155 pounds, he's a little guy who originally signed for a paltry $15,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2014, but his combination of speed and feel for the barrel has slowly pushed him to the national prospect discussion. In 2019, Brujan slashed .277/.346/.389 with four home runs, 48 stolen bases, and a 61/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 99 games at High A Charlotte and AA Montgomery, giving him 103 stolen bases over the past two seasons and putting him within arm's reach of the majors. He employs an extremely quick bat and great feel for the barrel from the left side, enabling him to hit for high averages, avoid strikeouts, and most importantly, get the ball in play so he can get the most out of his elite speed. He's not much of a power hitter and never will be, but he has enough strength to be an extra base threat who can drop the ball into the gap and run wild on the bases. Defensively, he's a little small for shortstop but he plays a very good second base, and he could hit his way into a starting role by the end of 2020. Overall, that's the upside of 5-10 home runs per season, high on-base percentages, and a ton of stolen bases with good defense.
- Taylor Walls (2020 Age: 23-24): Walls grew up in southern Georgia, but as a 2017 third round pick out of Florida State, he earns the title of a semi-hometown player. He hit well against younger competition in 2018 (.304/.393/.428 in Class A) before a more challenging assignment in 2019, where he slashed .270/.343/.452 with ten home runs, 28 stolen bases, and a 79/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 games at High A Charlotte and AA Montgomery. Originally much more of a pure contact hitter in college and in Class A, he originally struggled with swing and miss when trying to hit for power but the Rays have helped him change that and become more of a complete hitter. Walls retains the strong plate discipline he's always had, though he's begun to lift the ball more and successfully tap some extra base and home run power without sacrificing his on-base percentage. Overall, it's a little bit too light of an offensive package to profile as a starter, especially with Franco and Brujan in this organization, but his defensive versatility gives him a good shot at becoming a very useful utility infielder in the near future.
- Lucius Fox (2020 Age: 22-23): Fox originally signed with the Giants for $6 million out of the Bahamas in 2015, then came over in the Matt Moore trade in 2016. However, his bat has failed to materialize at this point, and in 2019 he slashed .221/.331/.327 with three home runs, 39 stolen bases, and a 104/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at AA Montgomery and AAA Durham. He's a very patient hitter than can draw walks, after which he can use his elite speed to steal a bunch of bases, including at least 25 in each of the past four seasons and 123 in total. He has good bat to ball skills, though to this point he's failed to hit for any kind of impact and likely won't ever hit enough to start full time. Given his speed and his great infield defense, he does profile well as a quality utility infielder who can control the strike zone and steal a bunch of bases. Fox also comes with some upside if he can make more hard contact.
- Xavier Edwards (2020 Age: 20-21): Originally a Padres' 2018 competitive balance pick out of high school in Broward County, Edwards was sent back home to Florida in the Tommy Pham deal this offseason and gives the Rays another big time middle infield prospect. He proved to be remarkably advanced in his first full season, slashing .322/.375/.396 with a home run, 34 stolen bases, and a 54/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games between Class A and High A, showing exceptional feel for the barrel and the strike zone along the way. At a skinny 5'10", it's hard to project him for much power, but Edwards makes such easy, consistent, hard contact that he should hit plenty of doubles and triples that can be stretched with his elite speed. Originally a 50/50 shortstop who may have to move to second base, he's improved and now looks like he'll be able to remain at short, as his range helps him make up for an average arm. Together, I'd project him as a starting shortstop in most organizations, though he'll probably have to either push Wander Franco over to third base or out-hit Vidal Brujan to start in this one. I think it's doable, with the former outcome more likely.
- Greg Jones (2020 Age: 22): Jones is an interesting one. A well regarded prospect coming out of a Raleigh-area high school in 2017, he instead opted to attend UNC Wilmington, where he was eligible as a sophomore because he was a year old for his class. Originally viewed as more of a second or third rounder, he got hot late in the spring and shot up draft boards at the last second, landing with the Rays at pick #22 in the first round of 2019. He continued his hot hitting in pro ball, slashing .335/.413/.461 with one home run, 19 stolen bases, and a 56/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games at short season Hudson Valley. He still has a fair amount of swing and miss in his game, but it's been decreasing and he's been finding the barrel more and more consistently. There's not a ton of home run power unless he beefs up a little bit and changes his approach, but he has the exceptional speed to profile well as a high on-base guy who hits 5-15 home runs per season. Defensively, there are questions as to whether he'll stick at shortstop, especially given all the talent there in this organization, but he could end up an above average center fielder with that elite speed.
- Keep an eye on: Miles Mastrobuoni, Tristan Gray, Tyler Frank, Zach Rutherford, Ford Proctor, Nick Sogard, Alejandro Pie
Outfield
- Randy Arozarena (2020 Age: 25): *Copied from the Cardinals' system review, as Arozarena came over in the Tommy Pham deal:* "Arozarena was a highly touted Cuban import who signed for $1.25 million in in 2016, then broke out in upper minors in 2019. This year, he slashed .344/.431/.571 with 15 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 71/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 92 games at AA Springfield and AAA Memphis, then hit .300/.391/.500 with a home run and a pair of stolen bases in a 19 game debut with the Cardinals. At 5'11", he doesn't have a ton of raw pop, but he knows how to get to it and has hit double digit home runs all three years in the minors. That's more due to his feel for the barrel, which has enabled him to limit his strikeouts and consistently make hard contact, leading to high batting averages, albeit without a ton of walks." The Rays like to mix and match a lot of their players, which will give Arozarena the chance to compete for a major league role right away, and in all he projects for about 15 home runs per season, a few stolen bases, and solid, batting average-driven on-base percentages.
- Josh Lowe (2020 Age: 22): The younger brother of current Rays first baseman Nate Lowe, Josh was a first round pick out of an Atlanta-area high school back in 2016 but took some time to get things figured out in pro ball. After slashing just .238/.322/.361 in High A in 2018, he broke out with a strong .252/.341/.442 line as well as 18 home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a 132/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at AA Montgomery in 2019. Always a great athlete, he's struggled to find the barrel consistently and hit for impact in pro ball, and it took until 2019 for him to start to change that. He still comes in with great speed and defense, which in addition to his draft stock, buys his bat time, and if he can continue to tap that power in 2020 and beyond, he could be a fringe starter. The next step will probably be cutting down on some of his swing and miss, but he's in a better spot this year than he was last year. The Rays are still hoping they have their center fielder of the future, but a career as a fourth outfielder remains a distinct possibility.
- Moises Gomez (2020 Age: 21): Gomez is a very high ceiling, low floor type who could really turn out to be something special. Signed for just $40,000 out of Venezuela in 2015, he put himself on the map with a huge 2018 (19 HR, .280/.328/.503 in Class A) before struggling in 2019 with a .220/.297/.402 slash line, 16 home runs, and a 164/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at High A Charlotte. Though he's just 5'10", he packs a lot of strength into his shorter frame which in turn generates a lot of raw power from the right side, which he has gotten to consistently. However, he struggles with contact, often chasing breaking balls out of the zone and racking up high strikeout totals. The good news is he's still young, only having turned 21 at the end of the 2019 season, with plenty of time to refine his approach. He has the chance to become a 20-30 home run bat, but there's also a good chance he ends up as a fourth outfielder or a platoon guy if pitchers can keep exploiting his approach.
- Cal Stevenson (2020 Age: 23): *Copied from the Astros system review after Stevenson was traded for Austin Pruitt:* Stevenson was a tenth round pick out of Arizona by the Blue Jays in 2018, then hit a sensational .369/.511/.523 with 21 stolen bases in his pro debut. He skipped Class A entirely and was traded to the Astros as part of the mid-season Derek Fisher/Aaron Sanchez deal, slashing .288/.388/.384 with five home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 65/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games between the two High A affiliates. He manages the strike zone exceptionally well, perhaps better than any hitter in this system, and that enables him to be an on-base machine day in and day out. He lacks impact at the plate, which is why is on-base skills are so critical, but his feel for the strike zone helps him find the barrel more often than not and hit for high averages. Stevenson is also a strong defender in center field and can steal a base, giving him a fourth outfielder projection.
- Niko Hulsizer (2020 Age: 23): Niko Hulsizer put up some absolutely ridiculous numbers at Morehead State, which is one of the most hitter-friendly venues in college baseball, including knocking 27 home runs in just 59 games as a sophomore in 2017. He made some adjustments as a sophomore to become a more complete hitter and landed in the 18th round with the Dodgers, then came over to the Rays for Adam Kolarek in 2019. Between the two organizations, he slashed .258/.366/.525 with 21 home runs and a 123/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 games between Class A, High A, and some complex level rehab work, showing off his big raw power as well as significant swing and miss. There's no question about who Hulsizer is as a hitter, as his explosive, all out right handed swing can make the ball jump off his bat in ways typically reserved for those blue chip prospects. He's also a patient hitter who is more than willing to draw a walk, a trait which has helped his power play up against pro pitching. He'll need to cut down on his swing and miss going forward, but Hulsizer is already looking like a late round gem and he could work his way up as a power hitting bench bat.
- Tanner Dodson (2020 Age: 22-23): Dodson was a two way player at California, and one year after selecting Brendan McKay out of Louisville, the Rays grabbed Dodson in the second competitive balance round in 2018 and sent him out playing both ways. Strictly talking about his hitting here, he was successful in his pro debut, slashing .273/.344/.369 in 49 games, but he was hurt for most of 2019 and hit just .250/.286/.350 with a 10/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games at High A Charlotte. Unless he were to give up pitching, which I see as less likely than the hitting, it's hard for me to see him developing into an impact hitter, but he does control the strike zone very well with strong bat to ball skills and good speed, so a fourth outfield profile fits really well. The switch hitter also carries his strong pitching arm to the outfield, which makes him above average out there, and I think he can remain a hitter up to the majors while he pitches.
- Nick Schnell (2020 Age: 20): Schnell was a compensation pick out of an Indianapolis-area high school in 2018, though he didn't quite break out in his first full pro season as optimistically hoped, slashing .265/.325/.448 with five home runs and an 84/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League, at rookie level Princeton, and at Class A Bowling Green. It's not the worst thing in the world that Schnell came away from the season with just five home runs, as he was considered a bit raw anyways, as are most Midwestern high school kids. The Rays are no stranger to developing projects, and the hope is that they can revamp his approach at the plate to help him tap his considerable raw power more often, as swing and miss was a significant issue this past year. The good news is that he hit the ball hard when he did make contact, adding 14 doubles and six triples in those 55 games, and he's a good runner and a solid defender that isn't just a one dimensional player. He retains his significant upside, but it might take a bit of time and some luck to get there.
- Keep an eye on: Ryan Boldt, Carl Chester, Izzy Wilson, Garrett Whitley, Ruben Cardenas, Grant Witherspoon, Shane Sasaki
Starting Pitching
- Brendan McKay (2020 Age: 24): Look who's back, it's Brendan McKay from the corner infield section (though technically he's a DH). The 2017 fourth overall pick out of Louisville projects much better on the mound at this point, and in 2019 he posted a 1.10 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP, and a 102/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.2 innings at AA Montgomery and AAA Durham, as well as a 5.14 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 56/16 strikeout to walk ratio in 49 major league innings. Because the major league rookie qualifier is 50 innings, McKay technically remains a prospect. He's an extreme pitchability left hander that sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, which he can morph into a cutter, and he adds a power curve and a changeup to go with them. Nothing really stands out as plus on its own, except potentially his curve when he stays on top of it really well, but he commands everything masterfully and, just as importantly, knows how to use his pitches to play off each other. Sometimes it's hard to project a pitchability guy like McKay as an ace, but you really never know given just how masterful he is at deploying his stuff, and it's quality stuff at that. I'd probably peg him as a number two long term.
- Brent Honeywell (2020 Age: 25): Honeywell was an elite prospect that was supposed to make an impact on the Rays' 2018 rotation right out of the gate, so while it's disappointing that we're still writing about him as a prospect here after the 2019 season, he retains his high upside. A competitive balance pick out of the Tennessee community college ranks in 2014, he dominated his way through the minors and by 2017 he had a career 2.88 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 458/93 strikeout to walk ratio over 416 innings. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2018 season, then a major setback in his rehab knocked out his 2019 season as well. He has as deep an arsenal as any player in the minors, coming in with five pitches led by a low to mid 90's fastball and an excellent screwball that just keeps dropping and dropping. His slider has some nice, late bite, his changeup adds excellent fade, and he can toss in a curveball as well. Honeywell's command was really good before the injuries, but unfortunately it's hard to say with confidence what it will look like when he returns. Overall, he has ace upside if he returns like the pitcher he was in 2017, with the ability to make the baseball move in virtually any direction while commanding it.
- Shane McClanahan (2020 Age: 23): Not only is McClanahan one of the top pitching prospects in a deep system, he's also a hometown guy. After graduating from Cape Coral High School down near Fort Myers, he attended USF and ended up getting picked in the compensation round in 2018. He looked excellent in his brief pro debut that year (seven shutout innings, 13 K's), then continued the great pitching into 2019 with a 3.36 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 154/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 120.2 innings at Class A Bowling Green, High A Charlotte, and AA Montgomery. It's been really interesting to watch his progression since Tommy John surgery wiped out his freshman season in 2016, as he was more of a thrower than a pitcher in college that relied on his mid to upper 90's fastball. His rawness was apparent at the start of the 2019 season, as he had a 3.40 ERA and a 74/31 strikeout to walk ratio against younger competition in Class A, but he took off with the promotion to High A with a 1.46 ERA and a 59/8 strikeout to walk ratio. The difference was in the command, as for the first time in his career, McClanahan was able to locate his pitches and make them play up and off each other rather than just saying "here's 100, hit it." He now sits in the low to mid 90's but can hit the upper 90's if he wants, adding an improving slider as well as a very good changeup that can play well off his fastball. If the gains he made with his command are sustained, he could be average or better in that regard, as well. He has less relief risk than he did a year ago, now with the chance to become a #2 starter if he can sharpen his breaking ball a bit more or improve his command a bit further. At present, though, he's still got some work to do and looks more like a #4 or a power reliever.
- Joe Ryan (2020 Age: 23-24): A seventh round senior sign out of Cal State Stanislaus in 2018, Ryan turned in one of the best pitching performances of any minor leaguer in 2019 and emerged as a true rotation prospect. After a nice 3.72 ERA and 51/14 strikeout to walk ratio in his pro debut, he came out in 2019 with a 1.96 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 183/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 123.2 innings at Class A Bowling Green, High A Charlotte, and AA Montgomery, the 183 strikeouts finishing second to only Kris Bubic's (Royals) 185. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a big, looping curveball with a lot of downward movement as well as a changeup, whileh is command has taken a big step forward in pro ball. That command is key, because it's enabled him to locate his pitches and make them play really well off each other, and it (in addition to a velocity bump) is what turned him from an unremarkable senior sign to the minors' #2 strikeout guy. Going forward, he'll need to refine his changeup a bit more, but he has the chance to be a #4 starter in Tampa.
- Tommy Romero (2020 Age: 22-23): Romero has flown a bit under the radar amid impressive pitching performances from bigger name prospects, but the Mariners' 15th round pick in 2017, who came over in the Alex Colome/Denard Span deal, has also been lights out. He's another Floridian who grew up in the Fort Lauderdale area before attending Eastern Florida State, and in 2019 he put up a 2.15 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 104/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 125.1 innings at High A Charlotte as well as one start at AA Montgomery. He's a 6'2" righty with average stuff, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and adding a curve, slider, and changeup, but he gets good extension on his pitches that helps them play up in addition to good command. He's likely more of a #4 or #5 starter, especially in this system, but you can't argue with the dominance he's had and we'll see how he handles the upper minors in 2020.
- Michael Plassmeyer (2020 Age: 23): Plassmeyer was a fourth round pick by the Mariners out of Missouri in 2018, then came over in the Mike Zunino/Mallex Smith deal after the season. 2019 was a breakthrough year, as he posted a 1.91 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 109/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 innings at Class A Bowling Green, High A Charlotte, and AAA Durham, making him one of quite a few Rays arms with sub-2.50 ERA's. He's seen a slight velocity bump in pro ball, now sitting just above 90, and it plays up from his three quarters arm slot. That slot also gives him a good, two-plane diving curveball, as well as a nice fading changeup, and he hits his spots very well. He doesn't have the highest upside in the system, but he has a good shot at being a #4 or #5 starter in the relatively near future.
- Shane Baz (2020 Age: 20-21): Baz was the Pirates' first round pick out of a Houston-area high school in 2017, then came over to the Rays as the player to be named later in the Chris Archer deal. Brought along slowly, he finally reached full season ball in 2019 and was successful, posting a 2.99 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and an 87/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.1 innings at Class A Bowling Green. He came into pro ball with a deep, five pitch arsenal, but the Pirates and Rays have refined him down to three, as he now sits in the mid 90's with his fastball while adding a great, sharp slider and a good changeup. The command has been a tick below what was originally expected, but given that he was already young for a high school draftee anyways, I don't think the Rays are overly worried about it at this point. He retains a high baseball IQ that will enable his stuff to consistently play up, and while he's been brought along cautiously so far, we have to expect the kid gloves will come off soon and he could start to race towards the majors as a potential future top of the rotation guy. He just has to improve that command back to average or a tick above.
- Drew Strotman (2020 Age: 23): Strotman was a fourth round pick out of St. Mary's in 2017, and his pro career got off to a hot start before he went down with Tommy John surgery in 2018. He returned late in 2019 to post a 4.50 ERA, a 1.71 WHIP, and a 24/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings between rehab work in the complex level Gulf Coast League and High A Charlotte, which was successful just in the fact that he was able to get on the mound. He's more of a back-end starter than a high ceiling prospect, coming in with a low to mid 90's fastball, a slider, curve, and changeup, and he does a good job of throwing strikes with all of his pitches. Durability is the key here, but with a sturdy 6'3" build and with all the guys who have gotten Tommy John, I wouldn't call it a huge issue just yet. Look for him to move quickly once he's healthy.
- Resly Linares (2020 Age: 22): The Rays have brought Linares along slowly, and a season ending forearm strain in his second start of 2019 slowed that down even further. He's a projectable 6'2" with easy low 90's velocity and a nice, sharp curve, as well as a changeup, and he commands everything decently well. He has all the building blocks to become an impact #3 starter, but coming back and proving he's healthy in 2020 will be the first step. I liked Linares coming into the season and I still do, and the injury just makes him more of a sleeper than a big name prospect.
- John Doxakis (2020 Age: 21): Doxakis was a second round pick out of Texas A&M in 2019, and after dominating the SEC, he posted a 1.93 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 31/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 32.2 innings at short season Hudson Valley. Despite standing 6'4", he only throws about 90, adding a good slider and a changeup. What makes him so good is the deception in his delivery in addition to his command, causing all of his pitches to play up. There's also the chance that the Rays can add a tick or two to his velocity and get him consistently into the low 90's, which would help raise his ceiling from the current #4 or #5 starter he's projected as. Either way, he'll likely move quickly as someone who understands pitching and how to get hitters out.
- Seth Johnson (2020 Age: 21): Johnson was a light hitting infielder in the North Carolina junior college ranks, then a switch to the mound changed his career. Transferring to Campbell, he opened eyes immediately with his talented arm, and by the end of his first season as a pitcher in 2019 he was a competitive balance. In his pro debut, he put up a 2.12 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 16/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 innings between the complex level Gulf Coast League and rookie level Princeton, setting himself up to hopefully take another big step forward in 2020. Johnson sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full array of inconsistent secondary pitches, though with additional refinement, he could have multiple weapons at his disposal. He also does a good job of throwing strikes, which is a big boon for someone new to pitching, and the Rays are buying his fresh arm and advanced feel for spinning a breaking ball. He's an upside pick, not a safety pick, and he'll probably take some time to develop.
- JJ Goss (2020 Age: 19): Goss was a Rays' competitive balance pick out of a Houston-area high school in 2019, then posted a 5.82 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 16/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 innings in the complex level Gulf Coast League. He's 6'3" righty that checks all the boxes you want to see in a young pitcher, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball while adding a very good slider and a fairly advanced changeup with a loose, projectable arm. He also does a good job of throwing strikes for his age, and together that gives him a very favorable projection as a #2 or a #3 starter with less risk than the typical high school arm. I really like this selection at #36 overall, especially considering the Rays didn't have to go above slot, and he could move fairly quickly for a teenager.
- Keep an eye on: Sam McWilliams, Paul Campbell, Faustino Carrera, Austin Franklin, Easton McGee, Zack Trageton, Ben Brecht, Evan McKendry, Taj Bradley, Sandy Gaston
Relief Pitching
- Peter Fairbanks (2020 Age: 26): A ninth round pick out of Missouri in 2015 who missed all of 2018 with Tommy John surgery, Fairbanks is an older prospect who came over from the Rangers for Nick Solak in 2019. Between the two organizations, he had a 4.53 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 70/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 43.2 innings at High A, AA, and AAA, and he also put up a 6.86 ERA and a 28/10 strikeout to walk ratio across 21 major league innings. He has extremely short arm action but still throws in the mid to upper 90's, adding a hard downer slider that stands out more for its velocity than its movement. The 6'6" righty is unlikely to end up a closer considering his fringe-average command as well as the lack of a true plus breaking ball, but the velocity should help him be a valuable bullpen piece out of the gate in 2020.
- Phoenix Sanders (2020 Age: 24-25): Sanders is a hometown guy, as he grew up in Gainesville before attending USF and getting drafted in the tenth round as a senior in 2017, one round before his teammate Shane McClanahan joined the Rays organization. In 2019, he reached the upper minors and posted a 1.92 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 68/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 innings at AA Montgomery and AAA Durham, putting him on the doorstep of pitching for his hometown team. He's a smaller guy at 5'10", sitting in the low 90's with his fastball while adding a really nice breaking ball with late movement as well as a changeup. He also does a good job of throwing strikes, though he profiles more as a middle reliever than as a set-up man or a closer.
- Riley O'Brien (2020 Age: 25): A money saving senior sign, O'Brien was an eighth round pick out of the College of Idaho in 2017 but has just been getting guys out since he had a velocity bump in pro ball. In 2019, O'Brien put up a 3.16 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 107/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.2 innings at High A Charlotte and AA Montgomery, mostly on the power of a wicked slider. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, but it's that slider that really helps him pick up a ton of swings and misses in any count. He also throws in a changeup, but his command is below average and that can cause his stuff to play down, and given the tremendous pitching depth in this system, it will probably force him to the bullpen. Given that he'll be 25 in February, that might not be the worst move, and it should accelerate his path to the bigs and help him become a power fastball/slider late inning reliever.
- Tanner Dodson (2020 Age: 22-23): You already read about Dodson as an outfielder, but he's probably an even better prospect as a pitcher. The Cal product shut down the New York-Penn League in his pro debut in 2018 (1.44 ERA, 25/5 K/BB), though he missed most of 2019 with injuries and finished with a 5.29 ERA, a 2.18 WHIP, and a 15/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 innings at High A Charlotte. He has a funky delivery that produces mid to upper 90's fastballs as well as sharp sliders and good fading changeups, and he typically throws enough strikes to make it all play up. Unless he were to give up hitting, I think it's strictly a relief-only profile, though he has shown the ability to go multiple innings. Getting back to full health should get him back on the fast track to the majors, as he's an advanced hitter as well, and he could be a useful part of both the Rays' bullpen and outfield going forward. If he were to give up hitting and focus exclusively on pitching, he has closer upside.
- Graeme Stinson (2020 Age: 22-23): Stinson is a complete wild card. A potential top ten pick coming into his junior season at Duke, he instead lasted just five starts before going down with a hamstring injury and never throwing another pitch for the Blue Devils. He's had his best success as a reliever, but the transition to the rotation was a disaster, with the Rays taking a chance on him in the fourth round in 2019. He has a powerful left arm, one that can sit in the low to mid 90's when he's healthy, and his power slider is already one of the best in the Rays's system. While the Rays could conceivably use a pro conditioning regimen to help him work back into the rotation, his most likely path forward is as a reliever, where his fastball/slider combination could be deadly. He does a decent job of throwing strikes and he brings high upside for a fourth round college draftee.
- Keep an eye on: Anthony Banda, Jack Labosky, Tyler Zombro, Tobias Myers, Simon Rosenblum-Larson
Saturday, January 25, 2020
Thursday, January 23, 2020
2020 Prospect Depth Chart: San Diego Padres
The Padres have depth everywhere you look, and on top of that, they have those kinds of impact prospects you want leading the way at most positions. MacKenzie Gore is of course one of the top pitching prospects in the game, possessing all of the qualities you look for in a prospect with the stuff, command, and competitiveness to profile at the top of the rotation. Behind him, Luis Campusano's breakout makes him one of the game's top catching prospects, while guys like Luis Patino, Taylor Trammell, Gabriel Arias, Hudson Potts, and Ryan Weathers keep working their ways up and look like they could be future stars. Then there's 2019 first round pick CJ Abrams, whose electric pro debut meant the Padres could feel comfortable trading Xavier Edwards, and Joey Cantillo, who came out of nowhere to have one of the finest statistical seasons in the minors. If pitchers like Pedro Avila, Anderson Espinoza, and Mason Thompson can make healthy returns in 2020, that would be big.
Affiliates: AAA El Paso Chihuahuas, AA Amarillo Sod Poodles, High A Lake Elsinore Storm, Class A Fort Wayne TinCaps, short season Tri-City Dust Devils, complex level AZL and DSL Padres
Catcher
- Luis Campusano (2020 Age: 21): A second round pick out of high school in Augusta, Georgia in 2017, Campusano turned in a fairly ordinary first full season in 2018 (.288/.345/.365) before breaking out in 2019. This past season, he hit 15 home runs and slashed .325/.396/.509 with a 57/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at High A Lake Elsinore, numbers that remain great even when accounting for the California League bump. He packs a lot of strength into his 5'10" frame that enables him to hit for good power, but he really began to figure out pro pitching and was virtually impossible to strike out in 2019. That's huge, because given the raw power in his bat, he could hit for even more over the fence pop in 2020 and threaten for 20-25 home runs annually in the bigs if he decides to become a bit more of a free swinger. Defensively, he'll stick behind the plate with his strong arm, but he's a bat-first prospect that could push Francisco Mejia back to the outfield down the road.
- Blake Hunt (2020 Age: 21): While Campusano has blasted forward, Hunt has sort of flown under the radar, though the fellow 2017 draftee who went 30 picks later out of high school in Santa Ana fits nicely as a glove-first counterpart. In 2019, he slashed .255/.331/.381 with five home runs and a 67/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 games at Class A Fort Wayne, like Campusano proving to be difficult to strike out but not hitting for nearly as much impact. He retains some power potential in his 6'3" frame, but at this point he's looking more like a glove-first backup who can provide a lot of value on defense. With Campusano's bat-first profile, they should make a solid duo in the majors down the road.
- Logan Driscoll (2020 Age: 22): Sneaking up behind Campusano and Hunt will be Logan Driscoll, taken in the second competitive balance round out of George Mason University in 2019. In his pro debut, he hit a strong .268/.340/.458 with three home runs and a 23/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 39 games at short season Tri-City, and he showed solid enough defense to project long term behind the plate. He's got some power and natural feel for the barrel in his 6'1" frame, and his strong plate discipline in college carried over to pro ball. That power/plate discipline combination should make him a net positive as a hitter, so long as the power plays up, though he has a long term projection as a backup catcher because he doesn't necessarily excel in any particular area.
- Keep an eye on: Jalen Washington, Juan Fernandez
Corner Infield
- Hudson Potts (2020 Age: 21): Similar to the Braves, whom I wrote up before the Padres, the one place this system lacks a ton of depth is in the corner infield. As I wrote for the Braves, that's quite alright, because middle infielders can often be shifted over here anyways. Additionally, Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado should have those spots locked down for a long time. Potts is the one standout in this group, a 2016 first round pick out of high school in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, and in 2019 he slashed .240/.302/.423 with 17 home runs and a 131/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 111 games between AA Amarillo and complex level rehab work. He's an advanced hitter that could be an all-around asset at the plate, one who can find the barrel consistently against advanced pitching while using his strength and leverage to put up good power numbers. Very young for his class when he was drafted back in 2016, the Padres have pushed him aggressively anyways and the results have been more good than bat, with three straight seasons of at least 17 home runs and 23 doubles. The plate discipline has been so-so, but that's likely attributable to his age, as he played all of 2019 at just 20 years old in AA. My guess is he'll probably need a bit more seasoning in the upper minors, but he could develop into a 20-25 homer bat in the near future. I'm not quite sure where he'll play, because his natural third base is going to be occupied for a long time by Machado, but he could fit in at second base if he improves his range a little bit.
- Keep an eye on: Jason Vosler, Brad Zunica, Sean Guilbe
Middle Infield
- Jake Cronenworth (2020 Age: 26): Cronenworth was originally a Rays seventh round pick out of Michigan back in 2015, and he worked his way up slowly as a light hitting infielder. The juiced AAA balls did wonders for him in 2019, as he slashed .329/.422/.511 with ten home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 64/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 games between AAA and complex level rehab, and after the season he was shipped to San Diego in the Tommy Pham/Hunter Renfroe deal. Cronenworth has always done a great job of controlling the strike zone and making for a tough at bat, but he began to hit for more impact in 2019 as he regularly found the barrel and the gaps. He profiles well as a utility infielder, though the bat might be just a bit too light to start full time. Additionally, the Rays actually tried him out as a reliever as well in 2019, and he responded with 7.2 shutout innings (with two unearned runs) and a 9/8 strikeout to walk ratio over seven appearances. He sits in the mid 90's and adds a really good curveball and cutter, though his command is still a work in progress. His future is mostly as a hitter, but he should be a serviceable reliever as well in 2020 if he can get more consistent with that command.
- Owen Miller (2020 Age: 23): A third round pick out of Illinois State in 2018, Miller has just flat out hit his way into the middle of the Padres future. After slashing .336/.386/.460 and hitting his way up to Class A in his pro debut, he skipped High A entirely and slashed .290/.355/.430 with 13 home runs and an 86/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at AA Amarillo in 2019. Hitting like that in AA less than a year out of the mid major Missouri Valley Conference, where he faced schools like Valparaiso and and Evansville, speaks volumes to his natural feel for the game. Miller doesn't have a ton of raw pop, but he finds the barrel so consistently and so easily that it plays up, and when you combine that with strong defense at second base and adequate defense at shortstop, he's a dark horse candidate to be the long term starter at the former position for San Diego. Expect Miller up in the majors as a utility infielder at some point in 2020 before challenging for that second base spot in 2021.
- Gabriel Arias (2020 Age: 20): The Padres signed Arias for $1.9 million out of Venezuela in 2016, and they've pushed him aggressively while letting him learn to hit pro pitching on the fly. After a couple of seasons with reasonably unremarkable numbers, he broke out in 2019 by slashing .302/.339/.470 with 17 home runs and a 128/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at High A Lake Elsinore as a teenager. He has an extremely quick bat from the right side that produces plenty of power, and he's gotten to it consistently against older pitching, showing his great feel for hitting in general. For now, he has a very aggressive approach that limits his walks and leads to some swing and miss, but he's also been young for his levels and those K/BB numbers should hopefully get a little closer together as he matures. Shortening his bat path might help as well, as his quick hands help him make up for a little bit of bat curl before the pitch but that might be more difficult against higher velocity at the higher levels. Arias is also a great defender that will stick at shortstop, giving him a profile as an all-around contributor. He won't unseat Fernando Tatis, but he could slide over to second base and win Gold Gloves there if he can beat out Owen Miller.
- Eguy Rosario (2020 Age: 20): As with most of their young prospects, the Padres pushed Rosario aggressively early, but when he hit .239/.307/.363 as an 18 year old in High A in 2018, they allowed him to repeat the level. The results were much better in 2019, when Rosario was a seasoned veteran at 19 years old, as he slashed .278/.331/.412 with seven home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 103/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games at High A Lake Elsinore. He's a little guy at a listed 5'9" and 150 pounds, but he packs a lot of strength in there to hit for some gap power that played as over the fence power in the hitter-friendly California League. He also has a very advanced approach for his age that enabled him to reach High A at 18 years old, and he brings some speed as well that has given him 86 stolen bases in 406 games overall. Rosario has more of a utility infield projection, but he's young enough to continue developing and make himself into more of an impact prospect with a nice season in AA in 2020.
- Tucupita Marcano (2020 Age: 20): Marcano is a really interesting prospect. The Venezuelan product slashed .270/.323/.337 with two home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 45/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 111 games at Class A Fort Wayne in 2019, but he has still walked far more times in his pro career (99) than he has struck out (76). He's really skinny at 6' tall and is more of a slap hitter than anything else, but he finds the barrel so easily that he might be the most difficult player to strike out in the entire system. Set to play the entire 2020 season at 20 years old, he has time to fill out his frame and add more strength, which could help him tap some gap power and maybe some over the fence pop, which will likely be the difference in him ultimately earning a starting spot or not down the road. He fits better at second base than at shortstop, but his ability to stick as an infielder does give him a little bit of extra time to find his power. A move up to the hitter-friendly California League in 2020 could help in that regard.
- CJ Abrams (2020 Age: 19): Abrams was one of the top high schoolers in the 2019 draft, and the Padres picked him up out of the Atlanta area with the sixth overall pick before turning him loose in the complex level Arizona League, where he slashed .401/.442/.662 with three home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 14/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 32 games. Abrams also earned a late promotion to Class A Fort Wayne, where picked up a single, a double, and a stolen base between two games. He shows an exciting combination of speed, athleticism, and feel for the barrel, which enabled him to hit his way up to full season ball just a couple months out of high school. There's also some power potential in his 6'2" frame, as he has room to fill out as well as the great hit tool that can help him maximize whatever he does have. It's an exciting, true leadoff potential, as Abrams could hit 10-20 home runs annually with high on-base percentages and plenty of stolen bases. Defensively, he may be able to stick at shortstop, but he could be a strong defender at second.
- Keep an eye on: Ivan Castillo, Esteury Ruiz, Allen Cordoba, Jordy Barley, Yeison Santana, Reginald Preciado
Outfield
- Taylor Trammell (2020 Age: 22): Trammell was a Reds competitive balance pick out of an Atlanta-area high school in 2016, then he got shipped to San Diego in the three team Trevor Bauer/Yasiel Puig/Franmil Reyes deal in 2019. Between the two organizations, he slashed .234/.340/.349 with ten home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 122/67 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 games in AA, which was a bit of a step back but also not overly worrisome for a 21 year old at that level. Trammell is an exceptionally talented player who can impact the game in a variety of ways, including with a patient approach, some raw power, plenty of speed, and good range in the outfield. Even now, a few years out of high school, he remains a bit raw, but his overall abilities and work ethic have helped him get up into the upper minors. The Padres are hoping to squeeze out that last little bit of refinement in the bat to help him make more consistent hard contact, after which he could realize his ceiling of 15-20 home runs a year, solid on-base percentages, and plenty of stolen bases.
- Edward Olivares (2020 Age: 24): Olivares broke out with a big year in the Blue Jays system in 2017, and the Padres picked him up for Yangervis Solarte after the season. He hit well in 2018 and broke out with his best year yet in 2019, slashing .283/.349/.453 with 18 home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 98/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at AA Amarillo. He's really begun tapping his power in games, and he adds a lot of speed that has enabled him to pick up 76 stolen bases over the last three seasons and play good defense in center field. It might be a bit more of a utility projection than Trammell, who was his teammate at Amarillo, just because he has less projection in his bat as he's set to turn 24 in spring training. In all, it's probably 10-15 home runs a year with decent on-base percentages and plenty of stolen bases.
- Tirso Ornelas (2020 Age: 20): Ornelas is a hometown guy for the Padres, as he grew up just across the border in Tijuana, but while the organization has been patiently waiting for him to break out, it just hasn't happened yet. While the numbers weren't quite there from a pure production standpoint, he showed excellent plate discipline while playing against much older competition in 2017 and 2018, which had the team excited to see what 2019 could bring. Unfortunately, he hit just .217/.303/.279 with one home run and a 113/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games between High A Lake Elsinore and a brief demotion to the complex level Arizona League to get back on track, which didn't really work. He's an extremely advanced hitter that understands the strike zone and advanced pitching well beyond his years, but despite a strong build at 6'3", he hasn't hit for much impact yet. He's only set to turn 20 in spring training, giving him plenty of time to figure things out, but the Padres would like to see at least some impact start to come out of his talented bat. Defensively, he has the makings of being a solid right fielder, though he's nothing special out there. It will be the bat that will have to wake up.
- Hudson Head (2020 Age: 19): The Padres made a huge gamble on Head, a solid high school prospect out of San Antonio, by giving him a third round record $3 million to keep from attending Oklahoma. He fell well outside of MLB.com's, Baseball America's, and my own top 100 due to his lack of a track record, but the Padres must have seen something they liked because this is a massive amount of money to take out of a draft pool. In his pro debut, Head slashed .283/.383/.417 with a home run and a 29/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 32 games in the complex level Arizona League, which is definitely a solid start for the 18 year old. He has tapped some significant raw power in high school, though it's unproven against higher level pitching, and his speed and athleticism enable him to play a strong center field. If all goes right, the Padres are hoping to get a fairly similar player to Taylor Trammell, and that pro debut was a step in the right direction, but there is a lot of investment riding on that happening.
- Joshua Mears (2020 Age: 19): Mears went in the second round out of a Seattle-area high school in 2019, though he signed for a third of the money that Hudson signed for a round later. Though he was supposed to be raw coming in, he slashed .253/.354/.440 with seven home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 59/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games in the Arizona League, getting to his power frequently while drawing his fair share of walks. Mears is a 6'3" slugger with some of the best raw power in a system more geared towards speed and on-base percentage, though as an 18 year old kid without a lot of experience against advanced pitching, his ability to make contact and tap his power in games remains raw. That's why, despite a relatively high strikeout rate, it was nice to see him hit those seven home runs and tap it a little bit in pro ball. The Padres will get to work refining that hit tool with him in spring training, with the hope that he'll eventually hit 25-30 home runs or more annually. Despite his size, he's an adequate defender who could play left or right field.
- Keep an eye on: Michael Gettys, Jeisson Rosario, Grant Little, Michael Curry, Ismael Mena
Starting Pitching
- MacKenzie Gore (2020 Age: 21): Gore was the third overall pick coming out of high school in rural southeastern North Carolina in 2017, and after a solid if unspectacular 2018, he broke out in a huge way in 2019 to establish himself as one of the top prospects in the game. Between High A Lake Elsinore and AA Amarillo, he posted a 1.69 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 135/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 innings, and if you take out one rough start on July 19th, the ERA and WHIP drop to 1.11 and 0.76, respectively. In essence, aside from one start, the 20 year old was untouchable. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a whole set of secondaries, all of which can be plus pitches. His curveball has really good shape and his slider is a second distinct breaking ball that dives to his glove side, while his changeup has improved as well to the point where it can be an out pitch. He also throws strikes with all of his pitches, and his competitiveness on the mound makes everything play up. That's an ace projection if he can stay healthy, because he really checks all of the boxes you're looking for in a young pitcher – he's even left handed. I doubt Gore will open 2020 in the big league rotation, but he could be up at some point during the year and once he's up, he should stick.
- Adrian Morejon (2020 Age: 21): Morejon was a well regarded prospect coming out of Cuba, signing for $11 million in 2016, and he's worked his way up as one of the better pitching prospects in the system. In 2019, he posted a 4.25 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 44/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 innings at AA Amarillo, then got knocked around with a 10.13 ERA and a 9/3 strikeout to walk ratio in eight major league innings before shoulder problems ended his season in August. There's no question about his stuff, as his fastball sits in the mid 90's while his curveball has some wicked two plane break. He also adds a pair of changeups with nice diving and fading action, and his command is good enough to make it all work. The problem here has been durability, as he's not the biggest guy at six feet tall and he has yet to throw more than 65.1 innings in a season. He has both the stuff and command to be a #2 or #3 starter at the major league level, but if he can't stay healthy, he might be forced to the bullpen. Set to turn just 21 years old at the start of spring training, Morejon already has all of the pieces in place except for that pesky durability, but of course none of it matters if he can't stay healthy. At the least, he should be an impact lefty reliever.
- Michel Baez (2020 Age: 24): Baez, another Cuban who signed for a big bonus in 2016 ($3 million), has followed Morejon's development path but he's a very different pitcher. Three years older and eight inches taller, he stands 6'8" and also sits in the mid 90's with his fastball. His go to breaking ball is a slider, though he also has a curve and a changeup, though all together the arsenal is a bit inconsistent. That spreads to his command, which comes and goes, and ultimately it's hard to say whether he'll be able to stick in the rotation. In 2019, Baez posted a 2.00 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 38/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings at AA Amarillo, then went up to the majors and put up a 3.03 ERA and a 28/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 29.2 innings in relief. Even though Baez has proven more durable to this point, I'd project Morejon as the better prospect because he's a much more complete pitcher at a younger age, but Baez does retain a high ceiling. There's a good chance he ends up a power reliever, where his 6'8" height would also be a big boon.
- Ronald Bolanos (2020 Age: 23): Yet another Cuban signed in 2016, Bolanos went for $2 million but has flown a bit more under the radar in the shadows of Morejon and Baez. That changed in 2019, when he broke out and posted a 3.66 ERA, a a 1.24 WHIP, and a 142/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 130.1 innings at High A Lake Elsinore and AA Amarillo, and he also put up a 5.95 ERA and a 19/12 strikeout to walk ratio in 19.2 major league innings. The 6'3" righty sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a whole set of secondary pitches, and while none of them stand out as true out pitches, he mixes them effectively and gets some deception in his delivery to help them play up. He also throws his share of strikes, and in all he projects as a #4 or #5 starter. However, he's proven more durable than Morejon and more consistent than Baez, so he might actually have the highest floor as a starter of the trio.
- Luis Patino (2020 Age: 20): Patino, in my opinion, is easily the second best pitching prospect in this system behind MacKenzie Gore. Signed for $120,000 out of Colombia in that same 2016 class that featured the trio of Cubans above him here, he's younger than all of them and has easily the most complete profile. In 2019, he posted a 2.57 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 123/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 94.2 innings at High A Lake Elsinore and AA Amarillo, despite not turning 20 until after the season. Patino has a lightning quick right arm, but the ball still seems to explode even quicker out of his hand and it sits in the low to mid 90's. He also adds a distinct slider and curveball as well as a changeup, and he commands all of it pretty well for someone his age. Patino needs to get more consistent with his all around game, but at just 20 years old, he's far more advanced than most arms his age and it all boils down to this; that's a special right arm, one with as much talent as you'll see anywhere. He doesn't throw as hard, but his athleticism and quick arm kind of remind me of Yordano Ventura.
- Pedro Avila (2020 Age: 23): Avila was originally a Nationals prospect who came over for Derek Norris in 2016, though 2019 was a bit of a lost season as he posted a 5.25 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 31/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings between AA Amarillo and some complex level rehab. However, he did make his MLB debut in April, where he threw 5.1 strong innings against the Diamondbacks, but he missed a big chunk of the season with elbow problems. When healthy, he sits in the low 90's with his fastball but gets really nice, late bite on his curveball and gets good fade on his changeup, and the throws just enough strikes with all three pitches in order to make them play up. Healthy now, he just needs to prove he can remain in and around the zone consistently in the bigs, though his lighter velocity might push him to the bullpen where he could add a tick or two. He's just about ready now, even post-injury, but this is a stacked system and there are quite a few arms ahead of him for rotation spots.
- Reggie Lawson (2020 Age: 22-23): Lawson went in the second competitive balance round out of high school in 2016, and he's a semi-local kid from Victorville, up in the desert north of San Bernardino. He's worked his way up one level at a time, though he missed most of 2019 with elbow problems and finished with a 5.20 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP, and a 36/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.2 innings at AA Amarillo. No worries, because Lawson did return for the Arizona Fall League and looked really good in eleven innings. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a big dropping curveball as well as a changeup, and with workable command, he definitely has the ability to start. The curve can look plus and the changeup can look above average at times, though both lack consistency and he does run the risk of becoming a fastball/curveball reliever, especially in this deep system. Despite this, you have to feel like Lawson is one or two adjustments away from breaking through, even after a few pro seasons, so I wouldn't give up on him as a starter just yet. He just has to get more consistent, which of course is easier said than done.
- Ryan Weathers (2020 Age: 20): Weathers garnered a lot of attention as one of the most advanced high school arms in the class in 2018, and the Padres grabbed him with the seventh overall pick out of a rural Middle Tennessee high school. In his first full season, he posted a 3.84 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 90/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 innings at Class A Fort Wayne, a very strong performance for a kid straight out of high school. Weathers sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a sharp curve and a very advanced changeup, all of which he commands very well. That all gives him less of the boom/bust profile that you see in most high school arms, as he's more like a college arm in that you know what you're getting and you just have to teach him to execute in pro ball. Weathers doesn't come with a ton of ceiling, but he has a very good shot at becoming an innings-eating #3 starter.
- Joey Cantillo (2020 Age: 20): Cantillo, a 16th round pick out of high school in Hawaii in 2017 who was born one day after Weathers in December 1999, was a little known teenage prospect coming into the season who didn't throw particularly hard or have great offspeed stuff. That changed in 2019, though, as he was one of the minors' biggest surprises by posting a 2.26 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and a 144/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.2 innings at Class A Fort Wayne and High A Lake Elsinore. The 6'4" lefty only sits around 90 with his fastball, sometimes bumping higher, and adds a full set of secondaries that he mixed well enough to miss a ton of Midwest League bats in 2019. He does a good job of throwing strikes and gets most of his outs with his changeup, and everything plays up because he can effectively mix his four pitches. Cantillo still has a lot of work to do, namely adding velocity and sharpening one or both of his breaking balls, but you can't argue with the numbers and Class A hitters were simply dumbfounded by the then-19 year old's stuff.
- Anderson Espinoza (2020 Age: 22): It's been three and a half years since Espinoza last threw a pitch on a professional mound, but that only speaks to how talented he is to still have his name on this list. Forearm problems kept him off the mound for most of 2017, then surgery late in the year wiped out the rest of the season as well as his 2018 season. A second Tommy John surgery knocked him out for the 2019 season as well, so fingers crossed that 2020 is the year. Back when he was pitching, Espinoza showed a low to mid 90's fastball as well as a curve and a changeup, and all three could be plus pitches. His command was also really good for an 18 year old, which will hopefully help him as he gets back on the found for the first time in ages. Espinoza has everything to prove and we don't know what kind of pitcher he will be when he gets back, whether he'll stick in the rotation or not, etc., but the good news is he was so young when he got hurt that he only turns 22 in spring training, making him the same age as most 2019 college draftees.
- Keep an eye on: Jacob Nix, Jerry Keel, Lake Bachar, Aaron Leasher, Caleb Boushley, Osvaldo Hernandez
Relief Pitching
- Steven Wilson (2020 Age: 25): Wilson was an eighth round pick out of Santa Clara in 2018, but as a redshirt senior who was old for his class, he had already turned 24 by the end of his pro debut and carried a 7.88 ERA at that. However, things changed in a big way in 2019, when he posted a 2.67 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and an 86/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 innings at High A Lake Elsinore and AAA El Paso, two very hitter-friendly environments. A starter back at Santa Clara, he's seen a velocity bump in relief and now sits comfortably in the mid 90's with his fastball, adding a slider and a cutter on top of it. The slider has great diagonal movement while the cutter can run to the glove side, and with his armside running fastball, he's a power arm that can make his pitches move essentially in any direction he wants them to. His command is decent and it hasn't hurt him in the minors, though in the majors he'll probably want to take a little step forward there if he wants to be more than a middle reliever.
- Henry Henry (2020 Age: 21): Of course, how can we not talk about the kid named Henry Henry here. Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2015, Henry transitioned to a full time reliever this year and put up a 3.32 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and an 80/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.1 innings at Class A Fort Wayne, a nice step forward from what he was doing in the rotation. He possesses easy velocity in the low to mid 90's, and he adds a nice curveball with two plane break. For now, what stands out is Henry's ability to throw strikes, his biggest improvement from 2018 to 2019, as well as the ease with which he throws. It's not out of the realm of possibility to see another velocity bump, as he'll play all of 2020 at 21 years old and now has a full year in the bullpen under his belt. Probably more of a middle relief profile, but it's fun to track a kid with a name like Henry Henry.
- Mason Thompson (2020 Age: 22): Thompson was an over slot third round pick out of an Austin-area high school in 2016, though he's struggled to stay healthy and has just 159.1 pro innings under his belt in four seasons. In 2019, he posted a 7.24 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, and a 25/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.1 innings between High A Lake Elsinore and complex level rehab work, though elbow problems bothered him mid season. Given that his injury history goes back to high school Tommy John surgery, it's probably pretty clear that he won't hold up in a starting role and he'll probably get run out as a reliever eventually. Thompson is extremely tall, standing 6'7", and that helps him get good angle on his pitches and run his fastball into the mid 90's. However, all of his secondary pitches lack consistency and his command collapsed as he battled injuries this year. He has shown strike throwing aptitude in the past and his slider has some nice, late break, so there is potential for him to take a big step forward in the bullpen.
- Keep an eye on: David Bednar, Elliot Ashbeck, Mason Fox, Dylan Coleman, Ignacio Feliz
Affiliates: AAA El Paso Chihuahuas, AA Amarillo Sod Poodles, High A Lake Elsinore Storm, Class A Fort Wayne TinCaps, short season Tri-City Dust Devils, complex level AZL and DSL Padres
Catcher
- Luis Campusano (2020 Age: 21): A second round pick out of high school in Augusta, Georgia in 2017, Campusano turned in a fairly ordinary first full season in 2018 (.288/.345/.365) before breaking out in 2019. This past season, he hit 15 home runs and slashed .325/.396/.509 with a 57/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at High A Lake Elsinore, numbers that remain great even when accounting for the California League bump. He packs a lot of strength into his 5'10" frame that enables him to hit for good power, but he really began to figure out pro pitching and was virtually impossible to strike out in 2019. That's huge, because given the raw power in his bat, he could hit for even more over the fence pop in 2020 and threaten for 20-25 home runs annually in the bigs if he decides to become a bit more of a free swinger. Defensively, he'll stick behind the plate with his strong arm, but he's a bat-first prospect that could push Francisco Mejia back to the outfield down the road.
- Blake Hunt (2020 Age: 21): While Campusano has blasted forward, Hunt has sort of flown under the radar, though the fellow 2017 draftee who went 30 picks later out of high school in Santa Ana fits nicely as a glove-first counterpart. In 2019, he slashed .255/.331/.381 with five home runs and a 67/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 games at Class A Fort Wayne, like Campusano proving to be difficult to strike out but not hitting for nearly as much impact. He retains some power potential in his 6'3" frame, but at this point he's looking more like a glove-first backup who can provide a lot of value on defense. With Campusano's bat-first profile, they should make a solid duo in the majors down the road.
- Logan Driscoll (2020 Age: 22): Sneaking up behind Campusano and Hunt will be Logan Driscoll, taken in the second competitive balance round out of George Mason University in 2019. In his pro debut, he hit a strong .268/.340/.458 with three home runs and a 23/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 39 games at short season Tri-City, and he showed solid enough defense to project long term behind the plate. He's got some power and natural feel for the barrel in his 6'1" frame, and his strong plate discipline in college carried over to pro ball. That power/plate discipline combination should make him a net positive as a hitter, so long as the power plays up, though he has a long term projection as a backup catcher because he doesn't necessarily excel in any particular area.
- Keep an eye on: Jalen Washington, Juan Fernandez
Corner Infield
- Hudson Potts (2020 Age: 21): Similar to the Braves, whom I wrote up before the Padres, the one place this system lacks a ton of depth is in the corner infield. As I wrote for the Braves, that's quite alright, because middle infielders can often be shifted over here anyways. Additionally, Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado should have those spots locked down for a long time. Potts is the one standout in this group, a 2016 first round pick out of high school in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, and in 2019 he slashed .240/.302/.423 with 17 home runs and a 131/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 111 games between AA Amarillo and complex level rehab work. He's an advanced hitter that could be an all-around asset at the plate, one who can find the barrel consistently against advanced pitching while using his strength and leverage to put up good power numbers. Very young for his class when he was drafted back in 2016, the Padres have pushed him aggressively anyways and the results have been more good than bat, with three straight seasons of at least 17 home runs and 23 doubles. The plate discipline has been so-so, but that's likely attributable to his age, as he played all of 2019 at just 20 years old in AA. My guess is he'll probably need a bit more seasoning in the upper minors, but he could develop into a 20-25 homer bat in the near future. I'm not quite sure where he'll play, because his natural third base is going to be occupied for a long time by Machado, but he could fit in at second base if he improves his range a little bit.
- Keep an eye on: Jason Vosler, Brad Zunica, Sean Guilbe
Middle Infield
- Jake Cronenworth (2020 Age: 26): Cronenworth was originally a Rays seventh round pick out of Michigan back in 2015, and he worked his way up slowly as a light hitting infielder. The juiced AAA balls did wonders for him in 2019, as he slashed .329/.422/.511 with ten home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 64/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 games between AAA and complex level rehab, and after the season he was shipped to San Diego in the Tommy Pham/Hunter Renfroe deal. Cronenworth has always done a great job of controlling the strike zone and making for a tough at bat, but he began to hit for more impact in 2019 as he regularly found the barrel and the gaps. He profiles well as a utility infielder, though the bat might be just a bit too light to start full time. Additionally, the Rays actually tried him out as a reliever as well in 2019, and he responded with 7.2 shutout innings (with two unearned runs) and a 9/8 strikeout to walk ratio over seven appearances. He sits in the mid 90's and adds a really good curveball and cutter, though his command is still a work in progress. His future is mostly as a hitter, but he should be a serviceable reliever as well in 2020 if he can get more consistent with that command.
- Owen Miller (2020 Age: 23): A third round pick out of Illinois State in 2018, Miller has just flat out hit his way into the middle of the Padres future. After slashing .336/.386/.460 and hitting his way up to Class A in his pro debut, he skipped High A entirely and slashed .290/.355/.430 with 13 home runs and an 86/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at AA Amarillo in 2019. Hitting like that in AA less than a year out of the mid major Missouri Valley Conference, where he faced schools like Valparaiso and and Evansville, speaks volumes to his natural feel for the game. Miller doesn't have a ton of raw pop, but he finds the barrel so consistently and so easily that it plays up, and when you combine that with strong defense at second base and adequate defense at shortstop, he's a dark horse candidate to be the long term starter at the former position for San Diego. Expect Miller up in the majors as a utility infielder at some point in 2020 before challenging for that second base spot in 2021.
- Gabriel Arias (2020 Age: 20): The Padres signed Arias for $1.9 million out of Venezuela in 2016, and they've pushed him aggressively while letting him learn to hit pro pitching on the fly. After a couple of seasons with reasonably unremarkable numbers, he broke out in 2019 by slashing .302/.339/.470 with 17 home runs and a 128/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at High A Lake Elsinore as a teenager. He has an extremely quick bat from the right side that produces plenty of power, and he's gotten to it consistently against older pitching, showing his great feel for hitting in general. For now, he has a very aggressive approach that limits his walks and leads to some swing and miss, but he's also been young for his levels and those K/BB numbers should hopefully get a little closer together as he matures. Shortening his bat path might help as well, as his quick hands help him make up for a little bit of bat curl before the pitch but that might be more difficult against higher velocity at the higher levels. Arias is also a great defender that will stick at shortstop, giving him a profile as an all-around contributor. He won't unseat Fernando Tatis, but he could slide over to second base and win Gold Gloves there if he can beat out Owen Miller.
- Eguy Rosario (2020 Age: 20): As with most of their young prospects, the Padres pushed Rosario aggressively early, but when he hit .239/.307/.363 as an 18 year old in High A in 2018, they allowed him to repeat the level. The results were much better in 2019, when Rosario was a seasoned veteran at 19 years old, as he slashed .278/.331/.412 with seven home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 103/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games at High A Lake Elsinore. He's a little guy at a listed 5'9" and 150 pounds, but he packs a lot of strength in there to hit for some gap power that played as over the fence power in the hitter-friendly California League. He also has a very advanced approach for his age that enabled him to reach High A at 18 years old, and he brings some speed as well that has given him 86 stolen bases in 406 games overall. Rosario has more of a utility infield projection, but he's young enough to continue developing and make himself into more of an impact prospect with a nice season in AA in 2020.
- Tucupita Marcano (2020 Age: 20): Marcano is a really interesting prospect. The Venezuelan product slashed .270/.323/.337 with two home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 45/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 111 games at Class A Fort Wayne in 2019, but he has still walked far more times in his pro career (99) than he has struck out (76). He's really skinny at 6' tall and is more of a slap hitter than anything else, but he finds the barrel so easily that he might be the most difficult player to strike out in the entire system. Set to play the entire 2020 season at 20 years old, he has time to fill out his frame and add more strength, which could help him tap some gap power and maybe some over the fence pop, which will likely be the difference in him ultimately earning a starting spot or not down the road. He fits better at second base than at shortstop, but his ability to stick as an infielder does give him a little bit of extra time to find his power. A move up to the hitter-friendly California League in 2020 could help in that regard.
- CJ Abrams (2020 Age: 19): Abrams was one of the top high schoolers in the 2019 draft, and the Padres picked him up out of the Atlanta area with the sixth overall pick before turning him loose in the complex level Arizona League, where he slashed .401/.442/.662 with three home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 14/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 32 games. Abrams also earned a late promotion to Class A Fort Wayne, where picked up a single, a double, and a stolen base between two games. He shows an exciting combination of speed, athleticism, and feel for the barrel, which enabled him to hit his way up to full season ball just a couple months out of high school. There's also some power potential in his 6'2" frame, as he has room to fill out as well as the great hit tool that can help him maximize whatever he does have. It's an exciting, true leadoff potential, as Abrams could hit 10-20 home runs annually with high on-base percentages and plenty of stolen bases. Defensively, he may be able to stick at shortstop, but he could be a strong defender at second.
- Keep an eye on: Ivan Castillo, Esteury Ruiz, Allen Cordoba, Jordy Barley, Yeison Santana, Reginald Preciado
Outfield
- Taylor Trammell (2020 Age: 22): Trammell was a Reds competitive balance pick out of an Atlanta-area high school in 2016, then he got shipped to San Diego in the three team Trevor Bauer/Yasiel Puig/Franmil Reyes deal in 2019. Between the two organizations, he slashed .234/.340/.349 with ten home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 122/67 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 games in AA, which was a bit of a step back but also not overly worrisome for a 21 year old at that level. Trammell is an exceptionally talented player who can impact the game in a variety of ways, including with a patient approach, some raw power, plenty of speed, and good range in the outfield. Even now, a few years out of high school, he remains a bit raw, but his overall abilities and work ethic have helped him get up into the upper minors. The Padres are hoping to squeeze out that last little bit of refinement in the bat to help him make more consistent hard contact, after which he could realize his ceiling of 15-20 home runs a year, solid on-base percentages, and plenty of stolen bases.
- Edward Olivares (2020 Age: 24): Olivares broke out with a big year in the Blue Jays system in 2017, and the Padres picked him up for Yangervis Solarte after the season. He hit well in 2018 and broke out with his best year yet in 2019, slashing .283/.349/.453 with 18 home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 98/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at AA Amarillo. He's really begun tapping his power in games, and he adds a lot of speed that has enabled him to pick up 76 stolen bases over the last three seasons and play good defense in center field. It might be a bit more of a utility projection than Trammell, who was his teammate at Amarillo, just because he has less projection in his bat as he's set to turn 24 in spring training. In all, it's probably 10-15 home runs a year with decent on-base percentages and plenty of stolen bases.
- Tirso Ornelas (2020 Age: 20): Ornelas is a hometown guy for the Padres, as he grew up just across the border in Tijuana, but while the organization has been patiently waiting for him to break out, it just hasn't happened yet. While the numbers weren't quite there from a pure production standpoint, he showed excellent plate discipline while playing against much older competition in 2017 and 2018, which had the team excited to see what 2019 could bring. Unfortunately, he hit just .217/.303/.279 with one home run and a 113/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games between High A Lake Elsinore and a brief demotion to the complex level Arizona League to get back on track, which didn't really work. He's an extremely advanced hitter that understands the strike zone and advanced pitching well beyond his years, but despite a strong build at 6'3", he hasn't hit for much impact yet. He's only set to turn 20 in spring training, giving him plenty of time to figure things out, but the Padres would like to see at least some impact start to come out of his talented bat. Defensively, he has the makings of being a solid right fielder, though he's nothing special out there. It will be the bat that will have to wake up.
- Hudson Head (2020 Age: 19): The Padres made a huge gamble on Head, a solid high school prospect out of San Antonio, by giving him a third round record $3 million to keep from attending Oklahoma. He fell well outside of MLB.com's, Baseball America's, and my own top 100 due to his lack of a track record, but the Padres must have seen something they liked because this is a massive amount of money to take out of a draft pool. In his pro debut, Head slashed .283/.383/.417 with a home run and a 29/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 32 games in the complex level Arizona League, which is definitely a solid start for the 18 year old. He has tapped some significant raw power in high school, though it's unproven against higher level pitching, and his speed and athleticism enable him to play a strong center field. If all goes right, the Padres are hoping to get a fairly similar player to Taylor Trammell, and that pro debut was a step in the right direction, but there is a lot of investment riding on that happening.
- Joshua Mears (2020 Age: 19): Mears went in the second round out of a Seattle-area high school in 2019, though he signed for a third of the money that Hudson signed for a round later. Though he was supposed to be raw coming in, he slashed .253/.354/.440 with seven home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 59/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games in the Arizona League, getting to his power frequently while drawing his fair share of walks. Mears is a 6'3" slugger with some of the best raw power in a system more geared towards speed and on-base percentage, though as an 18 year old kid without a lot of experience against advanced pitching, his ability to make contact and tap his power in games remains raw. That's why, despite a relatively high strikeout rate, it was nice to see him hit those seven home runs and tap it a little bit in pro ball. The Padres will get to work refining that hit tool with him in spring training, with the hope that he'll eventually hit 25-30 home runs or more annually. Despite his size, he's an adequate defender who could play left or right field.
- Keep an eye on: Michael Gettys, Jeisson Rosario, Grant Little, Michael Curry, Ismael Mena
Starting Pitching
- MacKenzie Gore (2020 Age: 21): Gore was the third overall pick coming out of high school in rural southeastern North Carolina in 2017, and after a solid if unspectacular 2018, he broke out in a huge way in 2019 to establish himself as one of the top prospects in the game. Between High A Lake Elsinore and AA Amarillo, he posted a 1.69 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 135/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 innings, and if you take out one rough start on July 19th, the ERA and WHIP drop to 1.11 and 0.76, respectively. In essence, aside from one start, the 20 year old was untouchable. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a whole set of secondaries, all of which can be plus pitches. His curveball has really good shape and his slider is a second distinct breaking ball that dives to his glove side, while his changeup has improved as well to the point where it can be an out pitch. He also throws strikes with all of his pitches, and his competitiveness on the mound makes everything play up. That's an ace projection if he can stay healthy, because he really checks all of the boxes you're looking for in a young pitcher – he's even left handed. I doubt Gore will open 2020 in the big league rotation, but he could be up at some point during the year and once he's up, he should stick.
- Adrian Morejon (2020 Age: 21): Morejon was a well regarded prospect coming out of Cuba, signing for $11 million in 2016, and he's worked his way up as one of the better pitching prospects in the system. In 2019, he posted a 4.25 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 44/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 innings at AA Amarillo, then got knocked around with a 10.13 ERA and a 9/3 strikeout to walk ratio in eight major league innings before shoulder problems ended his season in August. There's no question about his stuff, as his fastball sits in the mid 90's while his curveball has some wicked two plane break. He also adds a pair of changeups with nice diving and fading action, and his command is good enough to make it all work. The problem here has been durability, as he's not the biggest guy at six feet tall and he has yet to throw more than 65.1 innings in a season. He has both the stuff and command to be a #2 or #3 starter at the major league level, but if he can't stay healthy, he might be forced to the bullpen. Set to turn just 21 years old at the start of spring training, Morejon already has all of the pieces in place except for that pesky durability, but of course none of it matters if he can't stay healthy. At the least, he should be an impact lefty reliever.
- Michel Baez (2020 Age: 24): Baez, another Cuban who signed for a big bonus in 2016 ($3 million), has followed Morejon's development path but he's a very different pitcher. Three years older and eight inches taller, he stands 6'8" and also sits in the mid 90's with his fastball. His go to breaking ball is a slider, though he also has a curve and a changeup, though all together the arsenal is a bit inconsistent. That spreads to his command, which comes and goes, and ultimately it's hard to say whether he'll be able to stick in the rotation. In 2019, Baez posted a 2.00 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 38/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings at AA Amarillo, then went up to the majors and put up a 3.03 ERA and a 28/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 29.2 innings in relief. Even though Baez has proven more durable to this point, I'd project Morejon as the better prospect because he's a much more complete pitcher at a younger age, but Baez does retain a high ceiling. There's a good chance he ends up a power reliever, where his 6'8" height would also be a big boon.
- Ronald Bolanos (2020 Age: 23): Yet another Cuban signed in 2016, Bolanos went for $2 million but has flown a bit more under the radar in the shadows of Morejon and Baez. That changed in 2019, when he broke out and posted a 3.66 ERA, a a 1.24 WHIP, and a 142/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 130.1 innings at High A Lake Elsinore and AA Amarillo, and he also put up a 5.95 ERA and a 19/12 strikeout to walk ratio in 19.2 major league innings. The 6'3" righty sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a whole set of secondary pitches, and while none of them stand out as true out pitches, he mixes them effectively and gets some deception in his delivery to help them play up. He also throws his share of strikes, and in all he projects as a #4 or #5 starter. However, he's proven more durable than Morejon and more consistent than Baez, so he might actually have the highest floor as a starter of the trio.
- Luis Patino (2020 Age: 20): Patino, in my opinion, is easily the second best pitching prospect in this system behind MacKenzie Gore. Signed for $120,000 out of Colombia in that same 2016 class that featured the trio of Cubans above him here, he's younger than all of them and has easily the most complete profile. In 2019, he posted a 2.57 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 123/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 94.2 innings at High A Lake Elsinore and AA Amarillo, despite not turning 20 until after the season. Patino has a lightning quick right arm, but the ball still seems to explode even quicker out of his hand and it sits in the low to mid 90's. He also adds a distinct slider and curveball as well as a changeup, and he commands all of it pretty well for someone his age. Patino needs to get more consistent with his all around game, but at just 20 years old, he's far more advanced than most arms his age and it all boils down to this; that's a special right arm, one with as much talent as you'll see anywhere. He doesn't throw as hard, but his athleticism and quick arm kind of remind me of Yordano Ventura.
- Pedro Avila (2020 Age: 23): Avila was originally a Nationals prospect who came over for Derek Norris in 2016, though 2019 was a bit of a lost season as he posted a 5.25 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 31/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings between AA Amarillo and some complex level rehab. However, he did make his MLB debut in April, where he threw 5.1 strong innings against the Diamondbacks, but he missed a big chunk of the season with elbow problems. When healthy, he sits in the low 90's with his fastball but gets really nice, late bite on his curveball and gets good fade on his changeup, and the throws just enough strikes with all three pitches in order to make them play up. Healthy now, he just needs to prove he can remain in and around the zone consistently in the bigs, though his lighter velocity might push him to the bullpen where he could add a tick or two. He's just about ready now, even post-injury, but this is a stacked system and there are quite a few arms ahead of him for rotation spots.
- Reggie Lawson (2020 Age: 22-23): Lawson went in the second competitive balance round out of high school in 2016, and he's a semi-local kid from Victorville, up in the desert north of San Bernardino. He's worked his way up one level at a time, though he missed most of 2019 with elbow problems and finished with a 5.20 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP, and a 36/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.2 innings at AA Amarillo. No worries, because Lawson did return for the Arizona Fall League and looked really good in eleven innings. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a big dropping curveball as well as a changeup, and with workable command, he definitely has the ability to start. The curve can look plus and the changeup can look above average at times, though both lack consistency and he does run the risk of becoming a fastball/curveball reliever, especially in this deep system. Despite this, you have to feel like Lawson is one or two adjustments away from breaking through, even after a few pro seasons, so I wouldn't give up on him as a starter just yet. He just has to get more consistent, which of course is easier said than done.
- Ryan Weathers (2020 Age: 20): Weathers garnered a lot of attention as one of the most advanced high school arms in the class in 2018, and the Padres grabbed him with the seventh overall pick out of a rural Middle Tennessee high school. In his first full season, he posted a 3.84 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 90/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 innings at Class A Fort Wayne, a very strong performance for a kid straight out of high school. Weathers sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a sharp curve and a very advanced changeup, all of which he commands very well. That all gives him less of the boom/bust profile that you see in most high school arms, as he's more like a college arm in that you know what you're getting and you just have to teach him to execute in pro ball. Weathers doesn't come with a ton of ceiling, but he has a very good shot at becoming an innings-eating #3 starter.
- Joey Cantillo (2020 Age: 20): Cantillo, a 16th round pick out of high school in Hawaii in 2017 who was born one day after Weathers in December 1999, was a little known teenage prospect coming into the season who didn't throw particularly hard or have great offspeed stuff. That changed in 2019, though, as he was one of the minors' biggest surprises by posting a 2.26 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and a 144/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.2 innings at Class A Fort Wayne and High A Lake Elsinore. The 6'4" lefty only sits around 90 with his fastball, sometimes bumping higher, and adds a full set of secondaries that he mixed well enough to miss a ton of Midwest League bats in 2019. He does a good job of throwing strikes and gets most of his outs with his changeup, and everything plays up because he can effectively mix his four pitches. Cantillo still has a lot of work to do, namely adding velocity and sharpening one or both of his breaking balls, but you can't argue with the numbers and Class A hitters were simply dumbfounded by the then-19 year old's stuff.
- Anderson Espinoza (2020 Age: 22): It's been three and a half years since Espinoza last threw a pitch on a professional mound, but that only speaks to how talented he is to still have his name on this list. Forearm problems kept him off the mound for most of 2017, then surgery late in the year wiped out the rest of the season as well as his 2018 season. A second Tommy John surgery knocked him out for the 2019 season as well, so fingers crossed that 2020 is the year. Back when he was pitching, Espinoza showed a low to mid 90's fastball as well as a curve and a changeup, and all three could be plus pitches. His command was also really good for an 18 year old, which will hopefully help him as he gets back on the found for the first time in ages. Espinoza has everything to prove and we don't know what kind of pitcher he will be when he gets back, whether he'll stick in the rotation or not, etc., but the good news is he was so young when he got hurt that he only turns 22 in spring training, making him the same age as most 2019 college draftees.
- Keep an eye on: Jacob Nix, Jerry Keel, Lake Bachar, Aaron Leasher, Caleb Boushley, Osvaldo Hernandez
Relief Pitching
- Steven Wilson (2020 Age: 25): Wilson was an eighth round pick out of Santa Clara in 2018, but as a redshirt senior who was old for his class, he had already turned 24 by the end of his pro debut and carried a 7.88 ERA at that. However, things changed in a big way in 2019, when he posted a 2.67 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and an 86/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 innings at High A Lake Elsinore and AAA El Paso, two very hitter-friendly environments. A starter back at Santa Clara, he's seen a velocity bump in relief and now sits comfortably in the mid 90's with his fastball, adding a slider and a cutter on top of it. The slider has great diagonal movement while the cutter can run to the glove side, and with his armside running fastball, he's a power arm that can make his pitches move essentially in any direction he wants them to. His command is decent and it hasn't hurt him in the minors, though in the majors he'll probably want to take a little step forward there if he wants to be more than a middle reliever.
- Henry Henry (2020 Age: 21): Of course, how can we not talk about the kid named Henry Henry here. Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2015, Henry transitioned to a full time reliever this year and put up a 3.32 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and an 80/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.1 innings at Class A Fort Wayne, a nice step forward from what he was doing in the rotation. He possesses easy velocity in the low to mid 90's, and he adds a nice curveball with two plane break. For now, what stands out is Henry's ability to throw strikes, his biggest improvement from 2018 to 2019, as well as the ease with which he throws. It's not out of the realm of possibility to see another velocity bump, as he'll play all of 2020 at 21 years old and now has a full year in the bullpen under his belt. Probably more of a middle relief profile, but it's fun to track a kid with a name like Henry Henry.
- Mason Thompson (2020 Age: 22): Thompson was an over slot third round pick out of an Austin-area high school in 2016, though he's struggled to stay healthy and has just 159.1 pro innings under his belt in four seasons. In 2019, he posted a 7.24 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, and a 25/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.1 innings between High A Lake Elsinore and complex level rehab work, though elbow problems bothered him mid season. Given that his injury history goes back to high school Tommy John surgery, it's probably pretty clear that he won't hold up in a starting role and he'll probably get run out as a reliever eventually. Thompson is extremely tall, standing 6'7", and that helps him get good angle on his pitches and run his fastball into the mid 90's. However, all of his secondary pitches lack consistency and his command collapsed as he battled injuries this year. He has shown strike throwing aptitude in the past and his slider has some nice, late break, so there is potential for him to take a big step forward in the bullpen.
- Keep an eye on: David Bednar, Elliot Ashbeck, Mason Fox, Dylan Coleman, Ignacio Feliz
Monday, January 20, 2020
2020 Prospect Depth Chart: Atlanta Braves
Despite the Braves' 2017 bonus trimming scandal as well as trades for guys like Kevin Gausman, Shane Greene, and Mark Melancon, they retain one of the strongest systems in the majors on the backs of their excellent pitching and outfield depth. On the mound, there's a whole slew of big league ready arms in Kyle Wright, Ian Anderson, Bryce Wilson, Tucker Davidson, and co., and their group of young outfielders might be the best in the game – defensive wizard Cristian Pache and the all-around Drew Waters are ready to join Ronald Acuna in arguably the most exciting young outfield in the game, while guys like Greyson Jenista, Trey Harris, Justin Dean, and Michael Harris provide a nice second wave a bit lower down. They also have a pair of nice catchers in Shea Langeliers and William Contreras, but the one place this system seems a bit shallower is in the infield, where Braden Shewmake looks like the only legitimate impact prospect. Now, the repercussions from that 2017 scandal can be seen a bit in the lower minors, where the Braves are a bit shallower than in the upper minors, but there's so much talent closer to the big leagues that that isn't really a problem yet.
Affiliates: AAA Gwinnett Stripers, AA Mississippi Braves, High A Florida Fire Frogs, Class A Rome Braves, rookie level Danville Braves, complex level GCL and DSL Braves
Catcher
- Alex Jackson (2020 Age: 24): The sixth overall pick of the 2014 draft out of high school in the San Diego area, Jackson came over from the Mariners in the Max Povse/Rob Whalen deal of 2016 and in 2019 he hit .229/.313/.533 with 28 home runs and a 118/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 games at AAA Gwinnett and was hitless in 13 major league at bats. Jackson has a ton of power, but not much else. He struggles with contact and strikes out a lot, and he's just barely passable behind the plate. Based on the power alone, he should be the first man up if either Travis d'Arnaud or Tyler Flowers gets hurt, though he'll never be a full time starter behind the plate – if he somehow taps his power enough to warrant a starting role, he'll probably be moved to the outfield.
- William Contreras (2020 Age: 22): The younger brother of Cubs catcher Willson Contreras, William has a shot to be the Braves' catcher of the future and he slashed .255/.315/.354 with six home runs and an 84/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at High A Florida and AA Mississippi in 2019. That was a small step back from his 2018 numbers (.285/.347/.436, 11 HR), but he was also a 21 year old catcher reaching the upper minors, so there's a lot of slack to give. He puts the bat on the ball really easily, which gives him a high floor, and he's developed some power as he's matured. A sound defender behind the plate, it's currently more of a backup profile than that of a true starter, but he's young enough and a competent enough hitter that he could conceivably tap a little more power and change that.
- Shea Langeliers (2020 Age: 22): Contreras will have to earn that starting spot, because coming up right behind him is Shea Langeliers, who was the ninth overall pick out of Baylor in 2019. Aggressively pushed to Class A Rome in his debut, he slashed .255/.310/.343 with a pair of home runs and a 55/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games, though he was hitting better towards the end of the season as he gained his footing. Langeliers has some power in his right handed swing, and with solid average plate discipline, he projects as an average hitter overall. That's okay, because the Braves drafted him for his glove. It's just about impossible to run on Langeliers and his cannon arm, and he adds exceptional receiving skills behind the plate too, giving him Gold Glove potential back there. So if he hits at all, that will be enough. Langeliers is also a big time asset because this organization loves to draft and develop young pitching, and having a guy like Langeliers to work with those kids could be huge.
- Keep an eye on: Logan Brown
Corner Infield
- Bryce Ball (2020 Age: 21-22): If there's one place where this system isn't deep, it's in the corner infield, but that's the place where you're the most okay with not having a ton of prospects. Last year, the Braves picked up third baseman CJ Alexander in the 20th round and he hit .352/.429/.495 in his pro debut before dropping to .117/.245/.180 this year (yikes), but Bryce Ball finds himself in a very similar spot to where Alexander was a year ago. The Braves took Ball in the 24th round out of Dallas Baptist in 2019, and he went on to absolutely obliterate opposing pitchers in his pro debut by slashing .329/.395/.628 with 17 home runs and a 50/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games at rookie level Danville and Class A Rome. At a hulking 6'6" and 235 pounds, Ball is limited to first base, but with the way he hit in his pro debut, that might not be a problem. He has tremendous raw power to all fields, and he got to it consistently both in the Appalachian League and in the more advanced South Atlantic League, though higher level pitching began to expose his approach just a little bit. I'm really interested to see what he does in his first full season in 2020, where he won't turn 22 until July since he was young for his class, and he could make himself a legitimate power prospect in a hurry.
- Keep an eye on: CJ Alexander
Middle Infield
- Wendell Rijo (2020 Age: 24): For someone who is set to play all of 2020 at just 24 years old, Rijo has been around the block and then some. He originally signed with the Red Sox out of the Dominican Republic for $625,000 in 2012, then was traded to Milwaukee for Aaron Hill in 2016. In 2018, it was on to the Yankees, and in 2019, the Braves picked him up in the AAA phase of the Rule 5 Draft, which only forces him to stick on the AAA roster, not the major league one. This past season, he slashed .258/.325/.438 with 13 home runs and an 89/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 games between High A, AA, and AAA, showing an all-around, ready-now, utility infield profile. He doesn't have much power but is adept enough at making regular, hard contact to hit for decent averages in the majors. He makes up for a weaker arm with good defense in the infield, and while second base is his most natural position, he can handle shortstop or third base if needed. The Braves aren't too deep in the infield at the major league level, so he has a good shot to hit his way into a utility role at some point in 2020.
- Braden Shewmake (2020 Age: 22): The Braves took Shewmake in the first round out of Texas A&M in 2019, and he rewarded them by slashing .300/.371/.425 with three home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 40/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games at Class A Rome and AA Mississippi. The Braves drafted Shewmake for his advanced bat, and he didn't disappoint by handling the strike zone extremely well and finding the barrel consistently in that pro debut. He's a lanky 6'4", but it remains to be seen whether he taps any power. He's a solid enough defender, performing adequately at shortstop, though he'll likely move over to second base in the future. That's a utility infield projection at worst, though it may be tough for him to break into that middle infield between Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies as a starter. He could end up sliding to third base, where the Braves don't have a clear long term answer, though his bat might be just a bit stretched there. The overall offensive projection is probably 5-15 home runs annually, depending on how much power he taps, with high on-base percentages and a few stolen bases.
- Beau Philip (2020 Age: 21): Philip, a second round pick out of Oregon State in 2019, is more of an upside play than a safe bet, especially for a day one college draftee. A community college transfer who missed some time in the spring with hamstring problems, we only got to see him for 44 games at the Division I level and he struggled in his pro debut, slashing .193/.297/.280 with four home runs and a 51/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games at rookie level Danville. Fortunately, he was very young for a college draftee and will play all of 2020 at 21 years old, giving him additional time to tap into his considerable talent. He packs a little bit of power into his 6' frame and was consistently finding the gaps in college, though it looks like he'll need to refine his approach a bit to continue to do so in pro ball. He's a competent defender that should be able to handle shortstop and he has a utility infield profile if it all clicks, but he does have the potential to surprise us and become more.
- Keep an eye on: Riley Unroe, Riley Delgado, AJ Graffanino, Greg Cullen, Vaughn Grissom
Outfield
- Cristian Pache (2020 Age: 21): Pache has always been a truly elite defender, but the book on him used to be "if he can hit at all, he'll be a valuable player." Formerly a light hitting teenager who went homerless in his first two pro seasons, he began to "hit at all" in 2018 when he slashed .279/.307/.410 in High A and AA, and he continued that over to 2019 when he slashed .277/.340/.462 with 12 home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 122/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at AA Mississippi and AAA Gwinnett. With Pache, everything begins with his defense. Between his speed, arm, and instincts, I don't think it gets much better, and I don't think Braves fans have seen anything like it since Andruw Jones. At the plate, he has plenty of wiry strength but he used to be a gap hitter – now, he's learning to drive the ball more and in addition to his 12 home runs in 2019, he hit 36 doubles and nine triples. Set to play all of 2020 at just 21 years old, a couple weeks younger than Juan Soto, he could conceivably turn some of those doubles and triples into home runs as he continues to grow, and while he projects for about 10-15 home runs a season for now, he could bump that number up to 15-20. Pache also controls the zone well enough to post decent on-base percentages, and he'll probably push Ender Inciarte out of the center field spot at some point in 2020.
- Drew Waters (2020 Age: 21): I've been a big fan of Waters as a prospect ever since he was at Etowah High School in Woodstock, and his hometown Braves picked him up in the second round in 2017. He's hit everywhere he's gone while the Braves have pushed him aggressively, and in 2019 he slashed .309/.360/.459 with seven home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 164/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 134 games at AA Mississippi and AAA Gwinnett. To me, it's a really interesting profile with a lot to pick apart. The switch hitter is a free swinger with an explosive swing from both sides of the plate, and while that has led to ugly K/BB numbers, he's also been very young for the levels he's played and and he'll spend all of 2020 at 21 years old. It also hasn't inhibited his ability to make consistent hard contact, as he's hit 79 doubles and 18 triples over the past two seasons – that is a LOT. A line drive-oriented approach has kept him from tapping into his home run power in games, with just 20 home runs in 298 career minor league games, though I think he'll begin to tap it as his plate discipline catches up with his feel for the barrel, and he could hit 15-20 a year. Waters is also a gifted defender who has the ability to stick in center field and be an asset, but with Mr. Pache already polishing his Gold Gloves in his mind, Waters will probably end up at a corner, and most likely unseating Nick Markakis at some point in 2020. Get excited for that Acuna-Pache-Waters outfield, it's going to be fun.
- Greyson Jenista (2020 Age: 23): Jenista was a second round pick out of Wichita State in 2018, and in 2019 he slashed .233/.318/.349 with nine home runs and a 145/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at High A Florida and AA Mississippi. It was a bit of a disappointing season after a strong pro debut in 2018, and with the aforementioned Acuna-Pache-Waters outfield of the future in Atlanta, it's hard to see him finding a starting spot. That said, Jenista is a very competent hitter with a patient approach and a track record of hitting, though he's had a difficult time tapping the considerable raw power in his 6'3" frame and explosive swing. Perhaps allowing him to repeat AA in his age-23 season in 2020 could help him get back on his feet as a hitter, and if it all clicks he could be one of the better fourth outfielders in the game as an all-around contributor.
- Trey Harris (2020 Age: 24): Drew Waters isn't the only Atlanta native trying to work his way into the Braves outfield. Harris graduated from McEachern High School in Powder Springs before attending Missouri, where he had an unremarkable career and ended up an unheralded 32nd round pick in 2018. However, he's opened a lot of eyes with an excellent first full season in 2019, where he slashed .323/.389/.498 with 14 home runs and a 91/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at Class A Rome, High A Florida, and AA Mississippi. Always one of the shortest guys on the field at 5'8", Harris packs a lot of strength into his stocky frame and uses an explosive swing to generate good power, and his great feel for the barrel enables it to play above average in games. While he doesn't walk a whole lot, he avoids strikeouts very well for a 5'8" kid swinging for the fences, giving him the opportunity to continue producing as he works through the upper minors and eventually into the majors. An average defender, he's like Jenista in that he'll have a tough time breaking into the starting three in that outfield, but he's also put himself in a great position to counter Jenista's left handed bat with his right handed bat as a bench option down the line.
- Justin Dean (2020 Age: 23): Dean is a semi-hometown player who grew up in Mauldin, which is in the Greenville, South Carolina area, and the Braves drafted him in the 17th round out of Lenoir-Rhyne University in North Carolina in 2018. He's rewarded them so far, and in 2019 he slashed .284/.386/.431 with nine home runs, 47 stolen bases, and a 115/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at Class A Rome. The one guy on the field smaller than Trey Harris, Dean stands just 5'6", but he plays a lot bigger. His elite speed is his best attribute, but his patient approach at the plate and natural feel for finding the barrel enable him to utilize it often. He's unlikely to ever be a full time starter in Atlanta, but his combination of speed and gap power make him a really intriguing option as a fourth outfielder down the line. In order to get there, he'll have to cut down on his swing and miss a bit.
- Michael Harris (2020 Age: 19): Make that three young outfielders from the ATL trying to work their way into the Braves outfield – Harris, of no relation to Trey, attended Stockbridge High School in the southern suburbs and was drafted in the third round in 2019. Considered a bit of a project at the time he was drafted, he tore through the complex level Gulf Coast League in his pro debut and slashed .349/.403/.514 with a pair of home runs, five stolen bases, and a 20/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 31 games. That was enough to skip over rookie level Danville entirely and head straight to Class A Rome, where he slumped a bit with a .183/.269/.232 line, three stolen bases, and a 22/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 22 games. Even with the tough run through Class A, it's a very successful debut for a kid who was supposed to take some time to adjust, and because he'll only turn 19 in spring training, he comes with really high upside. Harris is more of a slap hitter for now, but there's enough strength in his 6' frame and quickness in his left handed swing (it looks like the Braves have had him give up switch hitting) to project some power down the road. Combined with his speed and defense, he's a sleeper to become a real contributor in Atlanta, though there's a ton of outfield depth in this system and he has a lot of guys to overtake in the depth chart.
- Keep an eye on: Tyler Nelsony, Jefrey Ramos, Stephen Paolini
Starting Pitching
- Kyle Wright (2020 Age: 24): It feels weird to say someone is "somehow still a prospect" when he was only drafted in 2017, but it feels that way for Wright, the fifth overall pick out of Vanderbilt that year. Somewhat of a hometown guy having grown up just north of Huntsville, Alabama, Wright raced through the minors and reached the majors in 2018, though he spent most of 2019 at AAA Gwinnett and posted a 4.17 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 116/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 112.1 innings. Between two major league stints, he has a 7.71 ERA, a 1.83 WHIP, and a 23/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.2 innings, and the Braves are obviously still patiently waiting for him to break through. Wright is incredibly talented, sitting in the mid 90's with his fastball and adding two distinct, swing and miss breaking balls in a curve and a slider, as well as a changeup that has taken a step forward in pro ball and become a weapon. At this point his control (throwing strikes) is ahead of his command (locating his pitches within the zone), which has caused him to get hit much harder in the majors than his stuff dictates he should. He's still young, set to play all of 2020 at 24 years old, but Wright has not made that last jump to truly executing the nuances of the game that separates the good from the great pitchers. We'll try again in 2020 – I'd project the 6'4" righty more as a #3 starter than an ace at this point, but really any outcome is still possible.
- Bryse Wilson (2020 Age: 22): Another southerner, Wilson grew up in Hillsborough near Durham, North Carolina, and like Wright he remains rookie eligible despite reaching the majors in 2018. In 2019, he posted a 3.42 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 118/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 innings at AAA Gwinnett, and between his two short stints in the majors, he has a 7.00 ERA and a 22/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings. Standing a stocky 6'1", Wilson is a power arm that tosses a low to mid 90's fastball while adding a tight slider and a changeup, all of which he can command decently well. He hasn't been quite consistent enough with that breaking ball or his command to stick in the majors just yet, but a few minor adjustments will help the 22 year old get to where he needs to be. Ultimately, he lacks the ceiling of some of the other arms in this system, but he profiles well as a #4 or #5 guy who can eat innings effectively.
- Ian Anderson (2020 Age: 21-22): Anderson was the third overall pick in 2016 out of high school in the Albany, New York area, and he's pitched extremely effectively while he's climbed the minors more slowly than most Braves arms, whom they tend to push aggressively. In 2019, Anderson posted a 3.38 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 172/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 135.2 innings at AA Mississippi and AAA Gwinnett, though he was much more effective at the lower level (2.68 ERA, 147/47 K/BB) than at the higher one (6.57, 25/18). The 6'3" righty has seen Wright and Wilson struggle to stick in the majors to this point, and both he and the Braves are hoping that isn't the case this time. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and flashes a plus curveball with hard, downward break, though it can soften up at times. He also throws a good changeup that gives him a third weapon, and while his command can waver, it didn't prove to be an issue at all until he reached AAA in 2019. I'm pretty confident in his stuff, so the key to avoiding the bumpy starts experienced by Wright and Wilson will be his command and whether he can hit his spots enough to keep the ball off major league barrels. Regardless, he's very young and won't turn 22 until May, so even if it takes him a year or two to figure it out, he finds himself in a great position to become a future #2 or #3 starter.
- Tucker Davidson (2020 Age: 24): The Braves picked up Davidson in the 19th round in 2016 out of the West Texas junior college ranks, and that's turned out to be an extremely savvy move. Davidson broke out in 2019 with a 2.15 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 134/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 129.2 innings at AA Mississippi and AAA Gwinnett, as his secondary stuff has gotten more consistent. The 6'2" lefty gets good angle on his low to mid 90's fastball, and his curveball has started to bite more while his changeup looks like an average pitch. The command is slowly ticking in the right direction as well, looking average at this point, and together it's painting a back-end starter picture in the near future. There are a few names ahead of him for the open 2020 rotation spots, but a strong spring and continued strong performance in AAA to start the season could get him some looks this year.
- Kyle Muller (2020 Age: 22): Muller was the Braves' second round pick out of a Dallas high school in 2016, one round after Anderson, and he looks like he's starting to figure it out. The 6'6" lefty put up a 3.14 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 120/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.2 innings at AA Mississippi in 2019, coming in with a lot of similarities to Anderson. A bit taller and broader, Muller also has a low to mid 90's fastball, though his curve and changeup are a bit lighter than Anderson's. He does get good downer action on that curveball, but it doesn't flash plus as often as Anderson's, and his command is a bit shakier. Given those command problems, he'll probably join Wilson as a #4 or #5 starter in the long run, though he does have the stuff to be more of a #3 if he can lock down the strike zone a bit better. Given the starting pitching depth in this system, there's also a non-zero chance he ends up as a power fastball/curveball lefty reliever in the long run.
- Jasseel De La Cruz (2020 Age: 22-23): Originally signed out of the Dominican Republic back in 2015, De La Cruz has always had upside but he finally began to make real progress towards it in 2019, when he had a 3.25 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 121/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 innings at Class A Rome, High A Florida, and AA Mississippi. The 6'1" righty has a low to mid 90's fastball that can seem to get on hitters quicker than that, and he's gotten more consistent with his slider, changeup, and command in 2019. That said, given the depth of starting pitching in this system, the overall package remains just a bit light for De La Cruz to have more than a 50/50 shot at starting at this point, so further refinement overall is still needed. The good news is that he certainly took a step in the right direction in 2019 as he found his arm slot and release point more consistently, and he's young enough that he could still make the necessary adjustments to become a useful starter.
- Freddy Tarnok (2020 Age: 21): Tarnok was a high risk, high upside third round pick out of a Tampa-area high school in 2017, and he's shown mixed results in pro ball while maintaining that high ceiling. In 2019, he put up a 4.75 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 91/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 106 innings between High A Florida and some complex level rehab work, which isn't too shabby for a kid who's only been pitching for a couple of years. The Braves love Tarnok's loose athleticism and projectable 6'3" frame, and he now sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball while adding a nice curve with some depth as well as a changeup. Tarnok needs to sharpen those offspeed pitches a bit further, and his command remains fringe-average, so further refinement is certainly needed. He's still young, set to play all of 2020 at 21 years old, and he's on enough of an upward trajectory that the Braves are confident he'll be able to make those adjustments. He still comes with the same risk/reward profile he had as a high schooler, but he's further along down the line and has significant development under his belt at this point.
- Ricky DeVito (2020 Age: 21): DeVito was up and down during his time at Seton Hall, and the Braves pounced in the eighth round in 2019 to see if they can straighten him out. In his pro debut, DeVito posted a 3.44 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 35/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 36.2 innings in the complex level Gulf Coast League and at rookie level Danville and Class A Rome. At his best, he throws a low to mid 90's fastball, a good curveball, and a solid changeup with average command, giving him the upside of a #3 or #4 starter. However, frequently in 2019, he threw closer to 90 and his secondary stuff flattened out a bit while his command wavered. Mechanical inconsistency was likely a major factor, and the Braves, who are no strangers to developing young pitching, will look to get that ironed out first. DeVito was young for a college junior and won't turn 22 until the end of the 2020 season, giving the Braves a little extra time to tinker with him, but ultimately there's reliever risk here if he doesn't get significantly more consistent with his stuff.
- Jose Olague (2020 Age: 21): Here is a deep sleeper for you. Olague was an under the radar signing out of Mexico in 2017, and he pitched well in the Dominican Summer League in 2018 before skipping straight over the Gulf Coast League as well as the Appalachian League. Heading straight to Class A Rome in 2019, Olague responded well with a 4.02 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 68/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 innings. That scouting report says it all, as Olague is an extreme pitch to contact type of pitcher who gets his outs by generating weak contact on pitchers' pitches. He sits around 90 with his fastball and adds a couple breaking balls, but he places them right where he wants them and is adept at avoiding barrels. He'll have a really small margin for error going forward, but it will be interesting to see if he can add any velocity or sharpen any of his secondary stuff and emerge as a legitimate starting pitching candidate.
- Keep an eye on: Nolan Kingham, Hayden Deal, Odalvi Javier, Alan Rangel
Relief Pitching
- Huascar Ynoa (2020 Age: 21-22): Originally a Twins prospect, Ynoa came over in the Jaime Garcia deal in 2017 and finally reached the bigs in 2019. Overall, he had a 5.09 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a 110/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.1 innings between High A Florida, AA Mississippi, and AAA Gwinnett, though his two big league outings included a strong performance against the Twins and a nightmare one in Milwaukee. Developed as a starter to this point, his future is most likely in the bullpen, where he can hope for a velocity bump and more consistent secondaries. Ynoa already sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, which seems to jump out of his hand, and he has some nice finish on his slider and changeup. The command has wavered significantly, so the hope is that will matter less if he moves to the bullpen and dials his fastball consistently into the mid 90's and sharpens his slider a bit. A successful transition could make him an important part of the Atlanta bullpen in 2020.
- Patrick Weigel (2020 Age: 25-26): It's been a long time coming for Weigel, who was a seventh round pick out of Houston in 2014, but he's finally knocking on the door to the majors. In 2019, returning from Tommy John surgery, he posted a 2.73 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 71/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 innings at AA Mississippi and AAA Gwinnett, splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen. He'll probably fit better in the latter going forward, where his low to mid 90's fastball sees a nice bump towards the mid to upper 90's and he can focus on one of his two decent breaking balls. At 6'6' and 240 pounds, his imposing presence will also work well in that role, and he could be a multi-inning weapon in the near future, though likely not a closer.
- Daysbel Hernandez (2020 Age: 23): Hernandez stands at a stocky 5'10", but that doesn't stop him from overpowering hitters. In 2019, the Cuban defector posted a 1.71 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 70/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.2 innings at High A Florida, mostly on the strength of a hard running, mid to upper 90's fastball. That alone was too much for Florida State League hitters to handle in 2019, but the key going forward will be further refining his hard slider that stands out more for its upper 80's velocity than its actual movement. He also shows a solid changeup, but he doesn't use it much in games. His command is also improving, and in the end he profiles as a middle reliever with set-up upside.
- Kasey Kalich (2020 Age: 22): The Braves picked Kalich up out of Texas A&M in the fourth round in 2019, three rounds after his teammate Braden Shewmake, and he had a strong pro debut with a 1.25 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 24/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 21.2 innings, mostly at Class A Rome. The 6'3" righty should move quickly on the back of his mid 90's fastball and improving slider. He's got the velocity, so sharpening that slider just a bit more while continuing to remain around the zone will be the keys to fulfilling that quick-mover projection. If it all goes right, he could be up in the bigs by 2021 as a potential set-up man.
- Keep an eye on: Thomas Burrows, Kurt Hoekstra, Troy Bacon, Trey Riley, Ryan Shetter, Victor Vodnik, Tyler Owens
Affiliates: AAA Gwinnett Stripers, AA Mississippi Braves, High A Florida Fire Frogs, Class A Rome Braves, rookie level Danville Braves, complex level GCL and DSL Braves
Catcher
- Alex Jackson (2020 Age: 24): The sixth overall pick of the 2014 draft out of high school in the San Diego area, Jackson came over from the Mariners in the Max Povse/Rob Whalen deal of 2016 and in 2019 he hit .229/.313/.533 with 28 home runs and a 118/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 games at AAA Gwinnett and was hitless in 13 major league at bats. Jackson has a ton of power, but not much else. He struggles with contact and strikes out a lot, and he's just barely passable behind the plate. Based on the power alone, he should be the first man up if either Travis d'Arnaud or Tyler Flowers gets hurt, though he'll never be a full time starter behind the plate – if he somehow taps his power enough to warrant a starting role, he'll probably be moved to the outfield.
- William Contreras (2020 Age: 22): The younger brother of Cubs catcher Willson Contreras, William has a shot to be the Braves' catcher of the future and he slashed .255/.315/.354 with six home runs and an 84/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at High A Florida and AA Mississippi in 2019. That was a small step back from his 2018 numbers (.285/.347/.436, 11 HR), but he was also a 21 year old catcher reaching the upper minors, so there's a lot of slack to give. He puts the bat on the ball really easily, which gives him a high floor, and he's developed some power as he's matured. A sound defender behind the plate, it's currently more of a backup profile than that of a true starter, but he's young enough and a competent enough hitter that he could conceivably tap a little more power and change that.
- Shea Langeliers (2020 Age: 22): Contreras will have to earn that starting spot, because coming up right behind him is Shea Langeliers, who was the ninth overall pick out of Baylor in 2019. Aggressively pushed to Class A Rome in his debut, he slashed .255/.310/.343 with a pair of home runs and a 55/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games, though he was hitting better towards the end of the season as he gained his footing. Langeliers has some power in his right handed swing, and with solid average plate discipline, he projects as an average hitter overall. That's okay, because the Braves drafted him for his glove. It's just about impossible to run on Langeliers and his cannon arm, and he adds exceptional receiving skills behind the plate too, giving him Gold Glove potential back there. So if he hits at all, that will be enough. Langeliers is also a big time asset because this organization loves to draft and develop young pitching, and having a guy like Langeliers to work with those kids could be huge.
- Keep an eye on: Logan Brown
Corner Infield
- Bryce Ball (2020 Age: 21-22): If there's one place where this system isn't deep, it's in the corner infield, but that's the place where you're the most okay with not having a ton of prospects. Last year, the Braves picked up third baseman CJ Alexander in the 20th round and he hit .352/.429/.495 in his pro debut before dropping to .117/.245/.180 this year (yikes), but Bryce Ball finds himself in a very similar spot to where Alexander was a year ago. The Braves took Ball in the 24th round out of Dallas Baptist in 2019, and he went on to absolutely obliterate opposing pitchers in his pro debut by slashing .329/.395/.628 with 17 home runs and a 50/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games at rookie level Danville and Class A Rome. At a hulking 6'6" and 235 pounds, Ball is limited to first base, but with the way he hit in his pro debut, that might not be a problem. He has tremendous raw power to all fields, and he got to it consistently both in the Appalachian League and in the more advanced South Atlantic League, though higher level pitching began to expose his approach just a little bit. I'm really interested to see what he does in his first full season in 2020, where he won't turn 22 until July since he was young for his class, and he could make himself a legitimate power prospect in a hurry.
- Keep an eye on: CJ Alexander
Middle Infield
- Wendell Rijo (2020 Age: 24): For someone who is set to play all of 2020 at just 24 years old, Rijo has been around the block and then some. He originally signed with the Red Sox out of the Dominican Republic for $625,000 in 2012, then was traded to Milwaukee for Aaron Hill in 2016. In 2018, it was on to the Yankees, and in 2019, the Braves picked him up in the AAA phase of the Rule 5 Draft, which only forces him to stick on the AAA roster, not the major league one. This past season, he slashed .258/.325/.438 with 13 home runs and an 89/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 games between High A, AA, and AAA, showing an all-around, ready-now, utility infield profile. He doesn't have much power but is adept enough at making regular, hard contact to hit for decent averages in the majors. He makes up for a weaker arm with good defense in the infield, and while second base is his most natural position, he can handle shortstop or third base if needed. The Braves aren't too deep in the infield at the major league level, so he has a good shot to hit his way into a utility role at some point in 2020.
- Braden Shewmake (2020 Age: 22): The Braves took Shewmake in the first round out of Texas A&M in 2019, and he rewarded them by slashing .300/.371/.425 with three home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 40/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games at Class A Rome and AA Mississippi. The Braves drafted Shewmake for his advanced bat, and he didn't disappoint by handling the strike zone extremely well and finding the barrel consistently in that pro debut. He's a lanky 6'4", but it remains to be seen whether he taps any power. He's a solid enough defender, performing adequately at shortstop, though he'll likely move over to second base in the future. That's a utility infield projection at worst, though it may be tough for him to break into that middle infield between Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies as a starter. He could end up sliding to third base, where the Braves don't have a clear long term answer, though his bat might be just a bit stretched there. The overall offensive projection is probably 5-15 home runs annually, depending on how much power he taps, with high on-base percentages and a few stolen bases.
- Beau Philip (2020 Age: 21): Philip, a second round pick out of Oregon State in 2019, is more of an upside play than a safe bet, especially for a day one college draftee. A community college transfer who missed some time in the spring with hamstring problems, we only got to see him for 44 games at the Division I level and he struggled in his pro debut, slashing .193/.297/.280 with four home runs and a 51/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games at rookie level Danville. Fortunately, he was very young for a college draftee and will play all of 2020 at 21 years old, giving him additional time to tap into his considerable talent. He packs a little bit of power into his 6' frame and was consistently finding the gaps in college, though it looks like he'll need to refine his approach a bit to continue to do so in pro ball. He's a competent defender that should be able to handle shortstop and he has a utility infield profile if it all clicks, but he does have the potential to surprise us and become more.
- Keep an eye on: Riley Unroe, Riley Delgado, AJ Graffanino, Greg Cullen, Vaughn Grissom
Outfield
- Cristian Pache (2020 Age: 21): Pache has always been a truly elite defender, but the book on him used to be "if he can hit at all, he'll be a valuable player." Formerly a light hitting teenager who went homerless in his first two pro seasons, he began to "hit at all" in 2018 when he slashed .279/.307/.410 in High A and AA, and he continued that over to 2019 when he slashed .277/.340/.462 with 12 home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 122/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at AA Mississippi and AAA Gwinnett. With Pache, everything begins with his defense. Between his speed, arm, and instincts, I don't think it gets much better, and I don't think Braves fans have seen anything like it since Andruw Jones. At the plate, he has plenty of wiry strength but he used to be a gap hitter – now, he's learning to drive the ball more and in addition to his 12 home runs in 2019, he hit 36 doubles and nine triples. Set to play all of 2020 at just 21 years old, a couple weeks younger than Juan Soto, he could conceivably turn some of those doubles and triples into home runs as he continues to grow, and while he projects for about 10-15 home runs a season for now, he could bump that number up to 15-20. Pache also controls the zone well enough to post decent on-base percentages, and he'll probably push Ender Inciarte out of the center field spot at some point in 2020.
- Drew Waters (2020 Age: 21): I've been a big fan of Waters as a prospect ever since he was at Etowah High School in Woodstock, and his hometown Braves picked him up in the second round in 2017. He's hit everywhere he's gone while the Braves have pushed him aggressively, and in 2019 he slashed .309/.360/.459 with seven home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 164/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 134 games at AA Mississippi and AAA Gwinnett. To me, it's a really interesting profile with a lot to pick apart. The switch hitter is a free swinger with an explosive swing from both sides of the plate, and while that has led to ugly K/BB numbers, he's also been very young for the levels he's played and and he'll spend all of 2020 at 21 years old. It also hasn't inhibited his ability to make consistent hard contact, as he's hit 79 doubles and 18 triples over the past two seasons – that is a LOT. A line drive-oriented approach has kept him from tapping into his home run power in games, with just 20 home runs in 298 career minor league games, though I think he'll begin to tap it as his plate discipline catches up with his feel for the barrel, and he could hit 15-20 a year. Waters is also a gifted defender who has the ability to stick in center field and be an asset, but with Mr. Pache already polishing his Gold Gloves in his mind, Waters will probably end up at a corner, and most likely unseating Nick Markakis at some point in 2020. Get excited for that Acuna-Pache-Waters outfield, it's going to be fun.
- Greyson Jenista (2020 Age: 23): Jenista was a second round pick out of Wichita State in 2018, and in 2019 he slashed .233/.318/.349 with nine home runs and a 145/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at High A Florida and AA Mississippi. It was a bit of a disappointing season after a strong pro debut in 2018, and with the aforementioned Acuna-Pache-Waters outfield of the future in Atlanta, it's hard to see him finding a starting spot. That said, Jenista is a very competent hitter with a patient approach and a track record of hitting, though he's had a difficult time tapping the considerable raw power in his 6'3" frame and explosive swing. Perhaps allowing him to repeat AA in his age-23 season in 2020 could help him get back on his feet as a hitter, and if it all clicks he could be one of the better fourth outfielders in the game as an all-around contributor.
- Trey Harris (2020 Age: 24): Drew Waters isn't the only Atlanta native trying to work his way into the Braves outfield. Harris graduated from McEachern High School in Powder Springs before attending Missouri, where he had an unremarkable career and ended up an unheralded 32nd round pick in 2018. However, he's opened a lot of eyes with an excellent first full season in 2019, where he slashed .323/.389/.498 with 14 home runs and a 91/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at Class A Rome, High A Florida, and AA Mississippi. Always one of the shortest guys on the field at 5'8", Harris packs a lot of strength into his stocky frame and uses an explosive swing to generate good power, and his great feel for the barrel enables it to play above average in games. While he doesn't walk a whole lot, he avoids strikeouts very well for a 5'8" kid swinging for the fences, giving him the opportunity to continue producing as he works through the upper minors and eventually into the majors. An average defender, he's like Jenista in that he'll have a tough time breaking into the starting three in that outfield, but he's also put himself in a great position to counter Jenista's left handed bat with his right handed bat as a bench option down the line.
- Justin Dean (2020 Age: 23): Dean is a semi-hometown player who grew up in Mauldin, which is in the Greenville, South Carolina area, and the Braves drafted him in the 17th round out of Lenoir-Rhyne University in North Carolina in 2018. He's rewarded them so far, and in 2019 he slashed .284/.386/.431 with nine home runs, 47 stolen bases, and a 115/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at Class A Rome. The one guy on the field smaller than Trey Harris, Dean stands just 5'6", but he plays a lot bigger. His elite speed is his best attribute, but his patient approach at the plate and natural feel for finding the barrel enable him to utilize it often. He's unlikely to ever be a full time starter in Atlanta, but his combination of speed and gap power make him a really intriguing option as a fourth outfielder down the line. In order to get there, he'll have to cut down on his swing and miss a bit.
- Michael Harris (2020 Age: 19): Make that three young outfielders from the ATL trying to work their way into the Braves outfield – Harris, of no relation to Trey, attended Stockbridge High School in the southern suburbs and was drafted in the third round in 2019. Considered a bit of a project at the time he was drafted, he tore through the complex level Gulf Coast League in his pro debut and slashed .349/.403/.514 with a pair of home runs, five stolen bases, and a 20/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 31 games. That was enough to skip over rookie level Danville entirely and head straight to Class A Rome, where he slumped a bit with a .183/.269/.232 line, three stolen bases, and a 22/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 22 games. Even with the tough run through Class A, it's a very successful debut for a kid who was supposed to take some time to adjust, and because he'll only turn 19 in spring training, he comes with really high upside. Harris is more of a slap hitter for now, but there's enough strength in his 6' frame and quickness in his left handed swing (it looks like the Braves have had him give up switch hitting) to project some power down the road. Combined with his speed and defense, he's a sleeper to become a real contributor in Atlanta, though there's a ton of outfield depth in this system and he has a lot of guys to overtake in the depth chart.
- Keep an eye on: Tyler Nelsony, Jefrey Ramos, Stephen Paolini
Starting Pitching
- Kyle Wright (2020 Age: 24): It feels weird to say someone is "somehow still a prospect" when he was only drafted in 2017, but it feels that way for Wright, the fifth overall pick out of Vanderbilt that year. Somewhat of a hometown guy having grown up just north of Huntsville, Alabama, Wright raced through the minors and reached the majors in 2018, though he spent most of 2019 at AAA Gwinnett and posted a 4.17 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 116/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 112.1 innings. Between two major league stints, he has a 7.71 ERA, a 1.83 WHIP, and a 23/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.2 innings, and the Braves are obviously still patiently waiting for him to break through. Wright is incredibly talented, sitting in the mid 90's with his fastball and adding two distinct, swing and miss breaking balls in a curve and a slider, as well as a changeup that has taken a step forward in pro ball and become a weapon. At this point his control (throwing strikes) is ahead of his command (locating his pitches within the zone), which has caused him to get hit much harder in the majors than his stuff dictates he should. He's still young, set to play all of 2020 at 24 years old, but Wright has not made that last jump to truly executing the nuances of the game that separates the good from the great pitchers. We'll try again in 2020 – I'd project the 6'4" righty more as a #3 starter than an ace at this point, but really any outcome is still possible.
- Bryse Wilson (2020 Age: 22): Another southerner, Wilson grew up in Hillsborough near Durham, North Carolina, and like Wright he remains rookie eligible despite reaching the majors in 2018. In 2019, he posted a 3.42 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 118/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 innings at AAA Gwinnett, and between his two short stints in the majors, he has a 7.00 ERA and a 22/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings. Standing a stocky 6'1", Wilson is a power arm that tosses a low to mid 90's fastball while adding a tight slider and a changeup, all of which he can command decently well. He hasn't been quite consistent enough with that breaking ball or his command to stick in the majors just yet, but a few minor adjustments will help the 22 year old get to where he needs to be. Ultimately, he lacks the ceiling of some of the other arms in this system, but he profiles well as a #4 or #5 guy who can eat innings effectively.
- Ian Anderson (2020 Age: 21-22): Anderson was the third overall pick in 2016 out of high school in the Albany, New York area, and he's pitched extremely effectively while he's climbed the minors more slowly than most Braves arms, whom they tend to push aggressively. In 2019, Anderson posted a 3.38 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 172/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 135.2 innings at AA Mississippi and AAA Gwinnett, though he was much more effective at the lower level (2.68 ERA, 147/47 K/BB) than at the higher one (6.57, 25/18). The 6'3" righty has seen Wright and Wilson struggle to stick in the majors to this point, and both he and the Braves are hoping that isn't the case this time. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and flashes a plus curveball with hard, downward break, though it can soften up at times. He also throws a good changeup that gives him a third weapon, and while his command can waver, it didn't prove to be an issue at all until he reached AAA in 2019. I'm pretty confident in his stuff, so the key to avoiding the bumpy starts experienced by Wright and Wilson will be his command and whether he can hit his spots enough to keep the ball off major league barrels. Regardless, he's very young and won't turn 22 until May, so even if it takes him a year or two to figure it out, he finds himself in a great position to become a future #2 or #3 starter.
- Tucker Davidson (2020 Age: 24): The Braves picked up Davidson in the 19th round in 2016 out of the West Texas junior college ranks, and that's turned out to be an extremely savvy move. Davidson broke out in 2019 with a 2.15 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 134/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 129.2 innings at AA Mississippi and AAA Gwinnett, as his secondary stuff has gotten more consistent. The 6'2" lefty gets good angle on his low to mid 90's fastball, and his curveball has started to bite more while his changeup looks like an average pitch. The command is slowly ticking in the right direction as well, looking average at this point, and together it's painting a back-end starter picture in the near future. There are a few names ahead of him for the open 2020 rotation spots, but a strong spring and continued strong performance in AAA to start the season could get him some looks this year.
- Kyle Muller (2020 Age: 22): Muller was the Braves' second round pick out of a Dallas high school in 2016, one round after Anderson, and he looks like he's starting to figure it out. The 6'6" lefty put up a 3.14 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 120/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.2 innings at AA Mississippi in 2019, coming in with a lot of similarities to Anderson. A bit taller and broader, Muller also has a low to mid 90's fastball, though his curve and changeup are a bit lighter than Anderson's. He does get good downer action on that curveball, but it doesn't flash plus as often as Anderson's, and his command is a bit shakier. Given those command problems, he'll probably join Wilson as a #4 or #5 starter in the long run, though he does have the stuff to be more of a #3 if he can lock down the strike zone a bit better. Given the starting pitching depth in this system, there's also a non-zero chance he ends up as a power fastball/curveball lefty reliever in the long run.
- Jasseel De La Cruz (2020 Age: 22-23): Originally signed out of the Dominican Republic back in 2015, De La Cruz has always had upside but he finally began to make real progress towards it in 2019, when he had a 3.25 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 121/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 innings at Class A Rome, High A Florida, and AA Mississippi. The 6'1" righty has a low to mid 90's fastball that can seem to get on hitters quicker than that, and he's gotten more consistent with his slider, changeup, and command in 2019. That said, given the depth of starting pitching in this system, the overall package remains just a bit light for De La Cruz to have more than a 50/50 shot at starting at this point, so further refinement overall is still needed. The good news is that he certainly took a step in the right direction in 2019 as he found his arm slot and release point more consistently, and he's young enough that he could still make the necessary adjustments to become a useful starter.
- Freddy Tarnok (2020 Age: 21): Tarnok was a high risk, high upside third round pick out of a Tampa-area high school in 2017, and he's shown mixed results in pro ball while maintaining that high ceiling. In 2019, he put up a 4.75 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 91/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 106 innings between High A Florida and some complex level rehab work, which isn't too shabby for a kid who's only been pitching for a couple of years. The Braves love Tarnok's loose athleticism and projectable 6'3" frame, and he now sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball while adding a nice curve with some depth as well as a changeup. Tarnok needs to sharpen those offspeed pitches a bit further, and his command remains fringe-average, so further refinement is certainly needed. He's still young, set to play all of 2020 at 21 years old, and he's on enough of an upward trajectory that the Braves are confident he'll be able to make those adjustments. He still comes with the same risk/reward profile he had as a high schooler, but he's further along down the line and has significant development under his belt at this point.
- Ricky DeVito (2020 Age: 21): DeVito was up and down during his time at Seton Hall, and the Braves pounced in the eighth round in 2019 to see if they can straighten him out. In his pro debut, DeVito posted a 3.44 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 35/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 36.2 innings in the complex level Gulf Coast League and at rookie level Danville and Class A Rome. At his best, he throws a low to mid 90's fastball, a good curveball, and a solid changeup with average command, giving him the upside of a #3 or #4 starter. However, frequently in 2019, he threw closer to 90 and his secondary stuff flattened out a bit while his command wavered. Mechanical inconsistency was likely a major factor, and the Braves, who are no strangers to developing young pitching, will look to get that ironed out first. DeVito was young for a college junior and won't turn 22 until the end of the 2020 season, giving the Braves a little extra time to tinker with him, but ultimately there's reliever risk here if he doesn't get significantly more consistent with his stuff.
- Jose Olague (2020 Age: 21): Here is a deep sleeper for you. Olague was an under the radar signing out of Mexico in 2017, and he pitched well in the Dominican Summer League in 2018 before skipping straight over the Gulf Coast League as well as the Appalachian League. Heading straight to Class A Rome in 2019, Olague responded well with a 4.02 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 68/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 innings. That scouting report says it all, as Olague is an extreme pitch to contact type of pitcher who gets his outs by generating weak contact on pitchers' pitches. He sits around 90 with his fastball and adds a couple breaking balls, but he places them right where he wants them and is adept at avoiding barrels. He'll have a really small margin for error going forward, but it will be interesting to see if he can add any velocity or sharpen any of his secondary stuff and emerge as a legitimate starting pitching candidate.
- Keep an eye on: Nolan Kingham, Hayden Deal, Odalvi Javier, Alan Rangel
Relief Pitching
- Huascar Ynoa (2020 Age: 21-22): Originally a Twins prospect, Ynoa came over in the Jaime Garcia deal in 2017 and finally reached the bigs in 2019. Overall, he had a 5.09 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a 110/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.1 innings between High A Florida, AA Mississippi, and AAA Gwinnett, though his two big league outings included a strong performance against the Twins and a nightmare one in Milwaukee. Developed as a starter to this point, his future is most likely in the bullpen, where he can hope for a velocity bump and more consistent secondaries. Ynoa already sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, which seems to jump out of his hand, and he has some nice finish on his slider and changeup. The command has wavered significantly, so the hope is that will matter less if he moves to the bullpen and dials his fastball consistently into the mid 90's and sharpens his slider a bit. A successful transition could make him an important part of the Atlanta bullpen in 2020.
- Patrick Weigel (2020 Age: 25-26): It's been a long time coming for Weigel, who was a seventh round pick out of Houston in 2014, but he's finally knocking on the door to the majors. In 2019, returning from Tommy John surgery, he posted a 2.73 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 71/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 innings at AA Mississippi and AAA Gwinnett, splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen. He'll probably fit better in the latter going forward, where his low to mid 90's fastball sees a nice bump towards the mid to upper 90's and he can focus on one of his two decent breaking balls. At 6'6' and 240 pounds, his imposing presence will also work well in that role, and he could be a multi-inning weapon in the near future, though likely not a closer.
- Daysbel Hernandez (2020 Age: 23): Hernandez stands at a stocky 5'10", but that doesn't stop him from overpowering hitters. In 2019, the Cuban defector posted a 1.71 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 70/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.2 innings at High A Florida, mostly on the strength of a hard running, mid to upper 90's fastball. That alone was too much for Florida State League hitters to handle in 2019, but the key going forward will be further refining his hard slider that stands out more for its upper 80's velocity than its actual movement. He also shows a solid changeup, but he doesn't use it much in games. His command is also improving, and in the end he profiles as a middle reliever with set-up upside.
- Kasey Kalich (2020 Age: 22): The Braves picked Kalich up out of Texas A&M in the fourth round in 2019, three rounds after his teammate Braden Shewmake, and he had a strong pro debut with a 1.25 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 24/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 21.2 innings, mostly at Class A Rome. The 6'3" righty should move quickly on the back of his mid 90's fastball and improving slider. He's got the velocity, so sharpening that slider just a bit more while continuing to remain around the zone will be the keys to fulfilling that quick-mover projection. If it all goes right, he could be up in the bigs by 2021 as a potential set-up man.
- Keep an eye on: Thomas Burrows, Kurt Hoekstra, Troy Bacon, Trey Riley, Ryan Shetter, Victor Vodnik, Tyler Owens
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