Showing posts with label Michael Harris. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Michael Harris. Show all posts

Saturday, October 8, 2022

2022 Dugout Edge MLB Awards

American League MVP

Winner: OF Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
Stat line: 62 HR, .311/.425/.686, 16 SB, 207 wRC+, 11.4 fWAR in 157 games
All due respect to Shohei Ohtani, seriously. I cannot emphasize enough how incredible he is, and if he hits and pitches at a high level every year, I have no problem with him winning the MVP every year. It should take a truly historic season to top an ace pitcher/middle of the order hitter, and unfortunately for Shohei, that's just what Aaron Judge provided this year. We all know his 62 home runs are the most by a hitter since Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa hit 73 and 64, respectively, in 2001, as well as the most home runs ever by an American League hitter. But not only that, his .686 slugging percentage was the highest in a non-shortened season since J.D. Martinez slugged .690 in 2017, while his 1.111 OPS was the highest since prime Albert Pujols reached 1.115 in 2008. What's more is that he did all this in a year where offense was down across the board, so his 207 wRC+ made him the first member of the 200 club since Barry Bonds in 2004. Throw in very solid outfield defense, and Aaron Judge's 11.4 fWAR was the seventeenth highest total in MLB history, again the highest since Barry Bonds in 2004. Only eight different players – Bonds, Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle, Ty Cobb, and Honus Wagner – have ever topped that number, and only Bonds and Mantle did so since integration. Overall, he led the American League this year in home runs, RBI (131), runs scored (133), walks (111), total bases (391), on-base percentage (.425), slugging percentage, OPS, wRC+, and WAR, and many of those weren't even close. Judge hit for tremendous power and got on base at a top-of-the-league clip in a year where offense was down across the board, threw in solid outfield defense and 16 stolen bases, and put up an all time great season. Shohei Ohtani is unbelievable, but there is no denying what Aaron Judge did this year is legendary.

Runner-up: RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
Stat line: 34 HR, .273/.356/.519, 11 SB, 142 wRC+, 3.8 fWAR in 157 games
Stat line: 15-9, 2.33 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.40 FIP, 219/44 K/BB in 166 innings
I am of the belief that if Shohei Ohtani plays at this level every year, then he should win the MVP every year, and he would have this year if Aaron Judge didn't hit 62 home runs and throw up eleven-plus WAR. A year ago, he deservedly won the AL MVP after posting a 3.18 ERA over 130.1 innings and a 151 wRC+ over 158 games as a hitter. This year, he dropped that ERA nearly a run to 2.33, threw 35.2 additional innings, and maintained nearly the same wRC+ at 142 over 157 games as a hitter. All told, he was probably even better this year than he was last year. Just isolating his bat, he was the American League's seventh best hitter by wRC+, ahead of stars like Rafael Devers (141), Carlos Correa (140), Jose Ramirez (139), Alex Bregman (136), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (132). His 34 home runs also placed third in the league and despite spending all that time on the mound, he still stepped to the plate 666 times, ninth most in the AL. And he still found the time to steal eleven bases. Flip over to the mound, and his numbers were perhaps even more impressive. He accumulated 5.6 fWAR as a pitcher, good for third in the AL behind Justin Verlander (6.1) and Kevin Gausman (5.7), while his 2.33 ERA finished fourth and his 2.40 FIP came in second. So we are talking about perhaps a top ten hitter and a top five pitcher in the league – nobody will ever do that again. In fact, if some player comes around and so much as posts an ERA in the 4's with a league average bat, that would be incredible, but we wouldn't see it that way because Ohtani has spoiled us.

Honorable mention: 2B Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
Stat line: 28 HR, .300/.387/.533, 18 SB, 164 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 141 games
I went back and forth, back and forth on this third spot between Jose Altuve and Jose Ramirez, who had extremely similar seasons as all-around well above average hitters with some speed and solid if unspectacular gloves on the infield dirt. Altuve was clearly the better hitter, as he finished 20, 32, and 19 points, respectively, ahead of Ramirez in the three triple slash categories of batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage, while his 164 wRC+ dwarfed Ramirez's very respectable 139. However, Ramirez also played in 16 more games than Altuve, missing just five Guardians games to Altuve's 21. I initially leaned Altuve due to the bat, moved over to Ramirez when I looked closer and decided that his 16 extra games were enough to overcome the offensive gap, then came back to Altuve when I looked at how their production was spread out throughout the year. Ramirez came out of the gate extremely hot, slashing .342/.411/.722 in April and holding a .288/.368/.576 slash line through the first half, but he gradually slowed down throughout the season as his OPS dropped in every month besides October and he hit just .269/.339/.439 in the second half as his teammates stepped up to put the finishing touches on the AL Central title run. Altuve, meanwhile, was a non-factor in April as he missed time with a hamstring injury and didn't hit much when he was on the field, but once he got over that and found his groove, there was no turning back. From May onwards, he was one of the best hitters in baseball as he slashed .310/.396/.554 and picked up all 6.6 of his fWAR – the third most in baseball in that stretch, behind only Aaron Judge's 10.4 and Paul Goldschmidt's 6.8. Wins in April count just as much as wins in September, but there's something to be said about momentum. Altuve was a non-factor in April and was excellent from May onwards, while Ramirez was exceptional to start the season and gradually slowed down.

Others
3B Jose Ramirez (Guardians): 29 HR, .280/.355/.514, 20 SB, 139 wRC+, 6.2 fWAR in 157 games
DH Yordan Alvarez (Astros): 37 HR, .306/.406/.613, 1 SB, 185 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 135 games
RHP Justin Verlander (Astros): 1.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 2.49 FIP, 185/29 K/BB in 175 innings
3B Alex Bregman (Astros): 23 HR, .259/.366/.454, 1 SB, 136 wRC+, 5.5 fWAR in 155 games
2B Andres Gimenez (Guardians): 17 HR, .297/.371/.466, 20 SB, 140 wRC+, 6.1 fWAR in 146 games

National League MVP

Winner: 3B Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals
Stat line: 30 HR, .293/.358/.533, 5 SB, 151 wRC+, 7.3 fWAR in 148 games
If you look at the raw offensive numbers for Nolan Arenado, you may not be overly impressed. His .381 wOBA would not stand out in most seasons, but offense was down across MLB in 2022 and it actually came out to the fourth best mark in the National League, and just barely behind Manny Machado's third place .382. He didn't actually lead the NL in any individual stat, but in addition to finishing fourth in wOBA he was also second in fWAR, third in slugging percentage, third in doubles, fourth in wRC+, fourth in OPS, and fifth in extra base hits (73). He did all that while finishing with the third lowest strikeout rate in the league at 11.6%, behind only contact artists Jeff McNeil and Nico Hoerner – in fact, you can throw in Miguel Rojas right behind him and the other three names in the top four combined for just 25 home runs to his 30. Arenado's combination of power and elite ability to put the ball in play was not matched this year, and that's all just in the bat. We all know that he is also one of the best defensive third basemen in the game, sucking up everything that comes his way at the hot corner and turning surefire infield singles or down the line extra base hits into outs at first base. Per Statcast, his 15 outs above average were second among all NL third basemen behind only Pittsburgh's Ke'Bryan Hayes, if you want confirmation. Take that bat in a down year for offense combined with the elite glove, and you can make a pretty strong case that no National League player was better than Nolan Arenado in 2022.

Runner-up: 3B Manny Machado, San Diego Padres
Stat line: 32 HR, .298/.366/.531, 9 SB, 152 wRC+, 7.4 fWAR in 150 games
One man did have a nearly identical season to Arenado, and that's Manny Machado. Like Arenado, Machado is an elite defensive third baseman that provides significant value with his glove. His eight outs above average at the hot corner were fourth in the NL, but because Arenado nearly doubled him in that category, he gets the edge despite nearly identical offensive stats (his 11.6% strikeout rate to Manny's 20.7% also helps). Mchado actually beat Arenado by five points in batting average and eight points in on-base percentage while falling two points short in slugging percentage, which gave him a one point advantage in the all-encompassing stats of wOBA (.382) and wRC+. It also meant that Manny led the NL in fWAR while finishing third in wRC+, third in wOBA,third in OPS, fourth in batting average, fourth in slugging percentage, and fifth in total bases (307). Overall, it was one of the best all-around seasons in the NL, but his excellent defense vs Arenado's elite defense and his higher strikeout rate contributed to him falling just short in my book.

Honorable mention: 1B Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals
Stat line: 35 HR, .317/.404/.578, 7 SB, 177 wRC+, 7.1 fWAR in 151 games
Paul Goldschmidt was the single best hitter in the National League this year, and I don't think there are any two ways around it. He led the league in wRC+, wOBA (.419), slugging percentage, and OPS, all by a very healthy margin, and finished second in total bases (324), second in on-base percentage, third in hits (178), third in batting average, fourth in extra base hits (76), and fifth in home runs. He was so good, in fact, that I very nearly put him ahead of defensive whizzes Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado, though his being limited to first base does hurt his value just a little. Goldschmidt did look like the favorite for much of the season and was slashing .338/.423/.633 on August 27th, but his bat quieted a bit towards the finish line and he hit just .229/.325/.349 over his final 31 games, allowing Arenado and Machado to overtake him.

Others
1B Freddie Freeman (Dodgers): 21 HR, .325/.407/.511, 13 SB, 157 wRC+, 7.1 fWAR in 159 games
RHP Sandy Alcantara (Marlins): 2.28 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 2.99 FIP, 207/50 K/BB in 228.2 innings
OF Mookie Betts (Dodgers): 35 HR, .269/.340/.533, 12 SB, 144 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 142 games
C J.T. Realmuto (Phillies): 22 HR, .276/.342/.478, 21 SB, 128 wRC+, 6.5 fWAR in 139 games
2B Jeff McNeil (Mets): 9 HR, .326/.382/.454, 4 SB, 143 wRC+, 5.9 fWAR in 148 games

American League Cy Young

Winner: RHP Justin Verlander, Houston Astros
Stat line: 18-4, 1.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 2.49 FIP, 185/29 K/BB in 175 innings
Justin Verlander may have thrown just the sixteenth most innings in the American League this year, behind names like Jordan Lyles and Nick Pivetta, but those 175 innings were some of the most dominant we have seen in some time. In fact, only two live ball era pitchers have EVER had a lower ERA and a lower WHIP while throwing that many innings in a season: Greg Maddux in 1995 (1.63 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 209.2 IP) and Pedro Martinez in 2000 (1.74 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 217 IP). That's it, that's the list. For my money, that is plenty enough to award him the AL Cy Young Award. He may not be striking out as many batters as he used to, with his 27.8% rate (sixth best in the AL) actually by far his lowest mark with the Astros, but pinpoint command meant he walked just 4.4% of his opponents, third best in the league. He was untouchable from start to finish this season, allowing three or fewer earned runs in 26 of his 28 starts and allowing one or zero earned runs in 20 of 28. He also never walked more than three batters in a start, walked more than two just twice, and walked one or zero in 21 of 28 starts. His worst ERA in any month was 2.27, while his worst WHIP was 1.01. That ERA would have finished fourth in the AL and that WHIP would have finished sixth. Just unbelievable stuff from the 39 year old future first ballot Hall of Famer.

Runner-up: RHP Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox
Stat line: 14-8, 2.20 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.10 FIP, 227/78 K/BB in 184 innings
So Dylan Cease led the entire American League with 78 walks and a 10.4% walk rate, which isn't ideal, but he actually did almost everything else well. He finished second in ERA, second in strikeouts, second in opponents' batting average (.190), third in games started, and third in strikeout rate (30.4%), and he did all of that despite playing in front of one of the worst defenses in the AL that did him no favors. So he walked a lot of guys, but he stranded most of them on base and did pretty much everything else as well as you could. And even though he was a bit wild, he only hit three batters, the fifth fewest among the 22 qualified starters in the AL. It's a low ERA, high strikeout, large sample season that is comfortably behind Justin Verlander's but in my opinion just a touch better than everyone else in the league. To this point in his career, he has now dropped his ERA and WHIP in each of his four major league seasons.

Honorable mention: RHP Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
Stat line: 15-9, 2.33 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.40 FIP, 219/44 K/BB in 166 innings
We already talked about Shohei Ohtani's pitching in the AL MVP section, and in my opinion he had the third best season of any AL pitcher this year, bat notwithstanding. Not only did he blast 34 home runs with a .356 on-base percentage as a hitter, but he was a legitimate ace and the best pitcher on the west coast. He led the American League in strikeout rate (33.2%), finished second in FIP, third in strikeouts, fourth in ERA, and fifth in WHIP, and additionally only allowed two unearned runs so he didn't allow errors to hurt him. He had ten different double digit strikeout games, kept the ball in the ballpark with just 14 home runs allowed (fourth fewest among qualified AL starters), and pitched like an ace nearly every time he went out there.

Others
RHP Shane Bieber (Guardians): 2.88 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 2.87 FIP, 198/36 K/BB in 200 innings
RHP Alek Manoah (Blue Jays): 2.24 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 3.35 FIP, 180/51 K/BB in 196.2 innings
LHP Shane McClanahan (Rays): 2.54 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 3.00 FIP, 194/38 K/BB in 166.1 innings
RHP Emmanuel Clase (Guardians): 1.36 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 1.98 FIP, 77/10 K/BB in 72.2 innings
LHP Nestor Cortes (Yankees): 2.44 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 3.13 FIP, 163/38 K/BB in 158.1 innings

National League Cy Young

Winner: RHP Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins
Stat line: 14-9, 2.28 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 2.99 FIP, 207/50 K/BB in 228.2 innings
Sometimes, old fashioned is better. Sandy Alcantara led all of Major League Baseball in innings pitched by 23.2 over second place Aaron Nola, with his 228.2 representing the highest total for any pitcher since David Price threw 230 innings for the 2016 Red Sox. Additionally, his six complete games (five of the nine inning variety) doubled second place Framber Valdez's total of three this year, and again represented the highest total since Chris Sale's six for the 2016 White Sox. Alcantara's shortest start this year was 4.2 innings, and he completed seven innings in 22 of his 32 starts. But you don't get the Cy Young Award just for throwing a bunch of innings, and Alcantara pitched like an ace throughout. Not only was he on the mound far more than anybody else this season, he also finished second in the NL in ERA, fourth in strikeouts, fifth in FIP, and sixth in WHIP. That kind of dominance over such a large sample is just too easy a choice for this award.

Runner-up: RHP Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
Stat line: 11-13, 3.25 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 2.58 FIP, 235/29 K/BB in 205 innings
Aaron Nola's 3.25 ERA may have been just the thirteenth best in the National League, but it was an otherwise exceptional season. Pitching in front of an poor Phillies defense that finished 29th out of 30 teams in terms of outs above average and in a hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, his 2.58 FIP (second in the NL) and 2.74 xERA (per Statcast) point to significant bad luck, mostly owing to that bad defense behind him. And yet he still threw the most innings in MLB by pitchers not named Alcantara, led all NL pitchers in fWAR (6.3) and walk rate (3.6%), and finished third in strikeouts, third in games started, and fourth in WHIP. It was about as well as you could expect anybody to pitch on their own, and if you swapped any other pitcher into his circumstances, I'm not sure you would have seen better numbers from anybody.

Honorable mention: RHP Carlos Rodon, San Francisco Giants
Stat line: 14-8, 2.88 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 2.25 FIP, 237/52 K/BB in 178 innings
Carlos Rodon found himself in a similar position to Aaron Nola, pitching in front of the third worst defense in the majors in San Francisco. In fact, if you take his defense out of it, his 2.25 FIP led all of Major League Baseball, so he controlled the three true outcomes better than anybody. In addition to leading the league in FIP, he also led the NL in strikeout rate (33.4%) and finished second in strikeouts (237), second in fWAR (6.2), sixth in ERA, and ninth in WHIP. He had eleven double digit strikeout games and was overall just a bat missing machine, which is exactly what the Giants needed given their relative inability to field the baseball.

Others
LHP Max Fried (Braves): 2.48 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.70 FIP, 170/32 K/BB in 185.1 innings
RHP Corbin Burnes (Brewers): 2.94 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 3.14 FIP, 243/51 K/BB in 202 innings
RHP Edwin Diaz (Mets): 1.31 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 0.90 FIP, 118/18 K/BB in 62 innings
RHP Spencer Strider (Braves): 2.67 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 1.83 FIP, 202/45 K/BB in 131.2 innings
RHP Ryan Helsley (Cardinals): 1.25 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 2.34 FIP, 94/20 K/BB in 64.2 innings

American League Rookie of the Year

Winner: C Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles
Stat line: 13 HR, .254/.362/.445, 4 SB, 133 wRC+, 5.3 fWAR in 113 games
Adley Rutschman and Julio Rodriguez are so neck and neck, with fWAR assigning them both the same value at 5.3 and bWAR giving Rodriguez a 6.0 to 5.2 edge. You really can't go wrong with either here, and I'm only choosing Rutschman because you can't have two rookies of the year. Rutschman played 19 fewer games than Rodriguez and fell 13 points behind in wRC+, but he was also one of the better defensive catchers in baseball. The Orioles as a team had a 3.97 ERA this year, but that was down to 3.79 with Rutschman behind the plate versus 4.39 with Robinson Chirinos. He didn't only help the pitching staff, he helped the whole team. The Orioles were 16-24 (.400 WPCT) when he got called up, then went 67-55 (.549 WPCT) from there on out. To come in and immediately improve not only a pitching staff, but a team like that is even more impressive as a 24 year old rookie, and his presence is looking to kickstart an era that could bring the best Orioles teams since the Jim Palmer/Eddie Murray golden era of the 1970's and early 1980's. Rutschman isn't just notable for his glove, though, as his 133 wRC+ shows he brings a serious bat as well. His .362 on-base percentage would have been fourteenth best in the American League and his 13.8% walk rate sixth best if he had enough at bats to qualify, while his 35 doubles clocked in at thirteenth. Obviously those numbers won't blow you away, but again, this is a 24 year old rookie whose glove and clubhouse presence have already helped transform a team.

Runner-up: OF Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners
Stat line: 28 HR, .284/.345/.509, 25 SB, 146 wRC+, 5.3 fWAR in 132 games
Like I mentioned, Julio Rodriguez is equally deserving of the Rookie of the Year Award, and Adley Rutschman only beat him by a hair. Rodriguez's season was very different than Rutschman's, but just as impressive. He played in 19 more games, hit 15 more home runs, and posted a wRC+ 13 points higher, just about making up for Rutschman's prowess behind the plate. And don't forget about Rodriguez's glove, because even though center field might not be quite as important as catcher, his seven outs above average came in thirteenth among American League outfielders. In what was a down year for hitters, his 146 wRC+ was the fifth best in the entire AL, behind only Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, and Yandy Diaz (yep, Yandy Diaz quietly finished at 146). His 5.3 overall fWAR finished ninth in the league, just edging Rutschman. Rodriguez played the entire season at just 21 years old, in a very pitcher-friendly home stadium, and early in the season was the recipient of some of the worst called strike luck in recent memory, but you would't know that from his final numbers that included a 25-25 season. And we can't forget the show he put on at the Home Run Derby, either. He'll likely be worth every penny of that mega contract he signed with Seattle.

Honorable mention: OF Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians
Stat line: 6 HR, .298/.373/.400, 19 SB, 124 wRC+, 4.4 fWAR in 147 games
It's a two horse race for the AL Rookie of the Year this year, but let's not forget about Cleveland outfielder Steven Kwan. An elite contact bat, he was one of just five qualified American League hitters to draw more walks than strikeouts, and his 9.4% strikeout rate was the second lowest in the league behind only Luis Arraez. His .373 on-base percentage was also ninth best in the league, so overall Kwan was just relentless about putting the ball in play and getting on base. The power wasn't quite there, but he did add significant value on defense with eight outs above average, good for eighth among AL outfielders. He fits in perfectly with Cleveland's contact-first style of play, and his big rookie season deserves recognition in the shadows of Adley Rutschman and Julio Rodriguez.

Others
RHP Jhoan Duran, Twins: 1.86 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 2.52 FIP, 89/16 K/BB in 67.2 innings
RHP George Kirby, Mariners: 3.39 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.99 FIP, 133/22 K/BB in 130 innings
RHP Joe Ryan, Twins: 3.55 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 3.99 FIP, 151/47 K/BB in 147 innings
SS Jeremy Peña, Astros: 22 HR, .253/.289/.426, 11 SB, 102 wRC+ in 136 games
LHP Brock Burke, Rangers: 1.97 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 3.30 FIP, 90/24 K/BB in 82.1 innings

National League Rookie of the Year

Winner: RHP Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves
Stat line: 11-5, 2.67 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 1.83 FIP, 202/45 K/BB in 131.2 innings
The NL Rookie of the Year Award will come down to two Braves, and I think Spencer Strider gets the edge. He accrued the fifth most fWAR (4.9) of any National League pitcher this year, rookie or not, enough to earn the #6 spot on my NL Cy Young ballot. Though he only threw 131.2 innings, he was one of just six NL pitchers to record 200 strikeouts this year while his 38.3% strikeout rate and 1.83 FIP led the NL (min. 130 innings) by a huge margin ahead of second place Carlos Rodon's 33.4% and 2.25, respectively. He actually began the year in the Atlanta bullpen and made eleven relief appearances with a 2.22 ERA and a 37/11 strikeout to walk ratio in April and May, but jumped to the rotation at the end of the month and never looked back. He recorded his first double digit strikeout game in his third start and pitched the game of the year on September 1st, when he allowed jut two hits and no walks over eight shutout innings against the Rockies, striking out 16 along the way. Now Strider did walk 8.5% of his opponents, the ninth highest mark in the NL among pitchers who threw at least 130 innings, but if he can get that down, the league could have its next true ace.

Runner-up: OF Michael Harris, Atlanta Braves
Stat line: 19 HR, .297/.339/.514, 20 SB, 136 wRC+, 4.8 fWAR in 114 games
Like Spencer Strider, Michael Harris didn't play enough to qualify for rate-based stats, but he was so great once he did come up in late May that he deserves a good long look for the NL Rookie of the Year Award. I gave it to Strider because I see him fitting much better into the down ballot Cy Young discussion than Harris fits in the down ballot MVP discussion, but it is fairly close. Harris came one home run short of a 20-20 season despite missing a third of the season, and his .514 slugging percentage topped Julio Rodriguez for the best among MLB rookies (min. 100 games played) while his .297 batting average fell just behind Steven Kwan's .298 and his .853 OPS fell just behind Rodriguez's .854. He was also a very strong defender whose seven outs above average were enough to finish fourth among all NL outfielders. It's a pretty similar season overall to Rodriguez (in 18 fewer games), who got much more media attention.

Honorable mention: LHP Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds
Stat line: 4-7, 3.66 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.90 FIP, 131/39 K/BB in 103.1 innings
It was a forgettable season in Cincinnati, but four rookie pitchers had seasons to remember. Nick Lodolo was perhaps the best among them and earns the third spot on my NL Rookie of the Year ballot, but Hunter Greene was right there behind him while Alexis Diaz was the best rookie reliever in the NL and Braxton Ashcraft made it to one hundred innings as well. Lodolo earns this spot despite throwing 22.1 fewer innings than Greene over five fewer starts because when he was on the mound, he was better. His 3.66 ERA, 3.90 FIP, and 1.25 FIP all compare very favorably to league averages, as the 24 year old gave the Reds 103.1 very effective innings in the rotation right off the bat. He got better as the season went along, too, and figures to stick around near the top of that Reds rotation for a very long time.

Others
RHP Hunter Greene (Reds): 4.44 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 4.37 FIP, 164/48 K/BB in 125.2 innings
RHP Alexis Diaz (Reds): 1.84 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 3.32 FIP, 83/33 K/BB in 63.2 innings
2B Brendan Donovan (Cardinals): 5 HR, .281/.394/.379, 2 SB, 129 wRC+ in 126 games
1B Joey Meneses (Nationals): 13 HR, .324/.367/.563, 1 SB, 156 wRC+ in 56 games
OF Seiya Suzuki (Cubs): 14 HR, .262/.336/.433, 9 SB, 116 wRC+ in 111 games

American League Reliever of the Year

Winner: RHP Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians
Stat line: 1.36 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 1.98 FIP, 77/10 K/BB in 72.2 innings
If you want to talk untouchable, then Emmanuel Clase is a great place to start. Opponents hit a paltry .167/.200/.225 against him as virtually nobody could barrel his triple digit cutter from start of the season to finish. His 28.4% strikeout rate was strong but not elite, but when hitters did make contact, it was weak contact galore as they wound up with a barrage of weak ground balls. He didn't walk anybody, either with just a 3.7% walk rate, so you really just had to get lucky to reach base. In fact, his longest stretch of consecutive appearances allowing a baserunner was just three appearances. In other words, he never went four games without posting at least one perfect appearance.

Others
RHP Jason Adam (Rays): 1.56 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 2.86 FIP, 75/17 K/BB in 63.1 innings
RHP Andres Muñoz (Mariners): 2.49 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 2.04 FIP, 96/15 K/BB in 65 innings
RHP Jhoan Duran, Twins: 1.86 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 2.52 FIP, 89/16 K/BB in 67.2 innings

National League Reliever of the Year

Winner: RHP Edwin Diaz, New York Mets
Stat line: 1.31 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 0.90 FIP, 118/18 K/BB in 62 innings
There were some great relievers in the National League this year, dare I say a deeper group than in the American League, but Edwin Diaz ultimately made this an easy choice. The man ran a 1.31 ERA as he allowed just nine runs in 62 innings, but even more impressive was a 0.90 FIP that represents the fourth lowest mark of all time (min. 50 innings) behind only 2012 Craig Kimbrel (0.78), 2003 Eric Gagne (0.86), and 2014 Aroldis Chapman (0.89). He was certainly helped by striking out 118 of the 235 batters he faced, good for a 50.2% strikeout rate that made him the third pitcher ever to strike out more than half the hitters he faced (min. 50 innings) after 2014 Chapman (52.5%) and 2012 Kimbrel (50.2%). Yeah, that'll play.

Others
RHP Ryan Helsley (Cardinals): 1.25 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 2.34 FIP, 94/20 K/BB in 64.2 innings
RHP Evan Phillips (Dodgers): 1.14 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 1.94 FIP, 77/15 K/BB in 63 innings
RHP Devin Williams (Brewers): 1.93 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.01 FIP, 96/30 K/BB in 60.2 innings

Thursday, July 18, 2019

2019 Draft Review: Atlanta Braves

First five rounds: Shea Langeliers (1-9), Braden Shewmake (1-21), Beau Philip (2-60), Michael Harris (3-98), Kasey Kalich (4-127), Stephen Paolini (5-157)
Also notable: Ricky DeVito (8-247), Tyler Owens (13-397), Joey Estes (16-487)

After failing to sign first rounder Carter Stewart in 2018, the Braves got the ninth overall pick this year in addition to their regular first round pick at #21, and they used them on two of the best college position players in Texas in Baylor's Shea Langeliers and Texas A&M's Braden Shewmake. They also signed several underslot deals early on, saving about $1.5 million between Langeliers and second rounder Beau Philip, and they spread that extra money around on several hard to sign high schoolers on Day Three. In fact, with $125,000 as the de facto slot value in rounds 11-40, the Braves signed four different players to bonuses above $250,000 in those rounds and a fifth at at just a hair under $200,000. They love to draft and develop young pitching, and it has worked out for them with guys like Mike Soroka, Kolby Allard, Ian Anderson, Kyle Muller, Joey Wentz, and Bryse Wilson coming through the pipeline, so guys like Tyler Owens and Joey Estes will hope to join that group down the line. It's a high risk draft given all the high schoolers, but they hope that those early picks will mitigate some of that.

1-9: C Shea Langeliers (Baylor, my rank: 11)
Adley Rutschman was the clear best catcher (and near-consensus best player) in this year's draft as someone who was exceptional on both sides of the ball, but Shea Langeliers might actually be the better defender. The Dallas-Fort Worth area native has an absolute cannon behind the plate, and his exceptional defensive actions behind the plate make him a safe bet to not only stick as a catcher but provide serious positive value back there. Given how the Braves love to draft and develop young pitching, having Langeliers there to work with those kids will be an added bonus. However, his bat isn't as sure of a thing as his glove, especially as a top ten pick here. He had a big freshman season at Baylor and slashed .313/.388/.540, but that line dropped to .252/.351/.496 as a sophomore and a broken hand early in his junior season this year clouded his draft status. He bounced back very nicely and finished the year with a .308/.374/.530 line, ten home runs, and a 29/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games, including an incredible showing against Nebraska-Omaha in the NCAA regional in Los Angeles where he picked up five hits, including a single, a double, and three home runs, in six at bats. Overall, his 14% strikeout rate was fairly low, though so was his 8.7% walk rate, and his numbers across the board were more good than great. He has some power but may need some minor mechanical changes to tap into it more, though with average plate discipline and feel for the barrel, he ultimately projects for 15-20 home runs annually with middling on-base percentages if his bat develops as expected. His glove, though, will take a ton of pressure off that bat. He signed for $4 million, which was $950,000 below slot, and he's slashing .203/.294/.324 with a home run and a 19/9 strikeout to walk ratio through 19 games at Class A Rome.

1-21: SS Braden Shewmake (Texas A&M, my rank: 40)
I remain a bit skeptical of this pick, but not as much as I was a month ago due to Braden Shewmake's hot start in the Class A South Atlantic League. Shewmake gives the Braves a second straight Texas college position player, as well as a second straight kid from DFW; Langeliers grew up in Keller on the Fort Worth side, while Shewmake comes from Wylie on the Dallas side. Oh, and they were born one day apart in November of 1997 in the same DFW metroplex. Anyways, Shewmake has been a consistent performer all three seasons down at Texas A&M, and he capped it off by slashing .313/.374/.474 with six home runs and a 27/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games this season. He finds the barrel extremely easily, as evidenced by just a 9.6% strikeout rate against tough competition this season, tending to spray line drives around the field with occasional over the fence pop. At 6'4", he's still projectable and could add additional power, but too often this season I felt that he lacked the ability to truly impact the ball consistently, especially given his size. I think the key to success for Shewmake as a first round pick will be developing that power, because otherwise he projects as a utility infielder with solid on-base percentages. He's also not a lock to stay at shortstop, as he's not the steadiest defender and may have to move to second or third base. His makeup and leadership are reportedly plusses, so that should help him maximize his ability. Shewmake signed at slot for $3.13 million, and he's off to a torrid .358/.404/.509 start with a home run and an 18/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games with Langeliers at Rome.

2-60: SS Beau Philip (Oregon State, unranked)
At 60th overall, Beau Philip was actually the first player drafted that I did not have ranked on my pre-draft list. The Sacramento-area native transferred from San Joaquin Delta College to Oregon State this season, then slashed .311/.369/.486 with five home runs and a 36/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games for the Beavers. Philip is an athletic kid with some solid raw tools, though with only 44 Division I games under his belt, he doesn't quite have the track record that some would like to see. He doesn't hit for a ton of power, but he's good at driving the ball into the gaps and he has enough speed to make things happen on the bases. That also helps him out defensively, where he has a strong arm and should be either a solid shortstop or a very good defensive third baseman. Overall, he hasn't really put it all together, but with his talent and age (he doesn't turn 21 until October, making him extremely young for the class), the Braves hope that pro refinement can make him a competent utility infielder or even a fringe starter who could hit for solid on-base percentages and ten or so home runs per season with positive defensive value. He signed for $697,500, which was $462,500 below slot, and he's slashing .123/.247/.233 with two home runs, three stolen bases, and a 20/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 19 games at rookie level Danville.

3-98: OF Michael Harris (Stockbridge HS [GA], unranked)
After three straight college picks from major programs, the Braves turned back to their own back yard to grab high schooler Michael Harris out of Stockbridge High School on the south side of the Atlanta suburbs. Jeff Francoeur (Parkview HS, 2002), Brian McCann (Duluth HS, 2002), and Jason Heyward (Henry County HS, 2007) were all early draft picks as high schoolers from the Atlanta area that went on to star for the Braves, and Drew Waters (Etowah HS, 2017) is on the way as well while Lucas Sims (Brookwood HS, 2012) didn't quite work out. Harris was actually a two-way player in high school, but the Braves are betting on his offensive upside and will stick him in center field. Offensively, he's a switch hitter whose swing is a bit quicker from the right side than the left, but he has some power in his quick hands. He's going to need mechanical refinements in both of his swings, as he lacks much extension at this point and also has his fair share of swing and miss. He'll be a project, but he has high upside as a potential power/speed guy who can play a good center field. Committed to Texas Tech, he instead signed for $547,500, which was $43,600 below slot, and he's slashing .383/.453/.468 with a pair of stolen bases and a 12/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 13 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League.

4-127: RHP Kasey Kalich (Texas A&M, unranked)
Going back to College Station, the Braves took Shewmake's teammate Kasey Kalich in the fourth round. The South Texas native from Victoria began his collegiate career at Blinn College but transferred down the road to A&M for his sophomore season this year, where he posted a 3.18 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 51/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 innings out of the bullpen. Though he's a sophomore, he turned 21 in April and was draft-eligible this year, and he uses his mid 90's fastball and solid slider to generate a ton of swings and misses. He'll have to refine that slider a bit in pro ball to get more bite on it, but his loose arm and present velocity give the Braves something to work with and gives him the upside of a solid set-up man. The command isn't pinpoint, but it shouldn't be an issue going forward. He signed for $347,500, which was $99,900 below slot, and he has a 1.69 ERA, a 1.88 WHIP, and an 8/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 5.1 innings between the Gulf Coast League and Rome so far.

5-157: OF Stephen Paolini (St. Joseph's HS [CT], unranked)
Stephen Paolini, a high schooler in Trumbull, Connecticut, was little-known on draft day and there isn't much information available on him anywhere. He's a 6'2" outfielder with some leverage in his left handed swing, though he'll need mechanical refinements to help him get to his power more consistently. Matt Powers over at Talking Chop wrote that Paolini "is a plus runner who should hit for some power." Together, it looks like the Braves are hoping that pro coaching can help him grow into a power/speed threat who can play center field, not too unlike third rounder Michael Harris. Committed to Elon, he signed for $597,500, which was $264,200 above slot, and he's slashing .159/.283/.159 with a 13/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 11 games in the Gulf Coast League.

8-247: RHP Ricky DeVito (Seton Hall, my rank: 130)
Ricky DeVito was dominant as a sophomore at Seton Hall in 2018, posting a 1.88 ERA and a 67/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 starts, then he went on to put up a 2.45 ERA and a 35/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 29.1 innings in the elite Cape Cod League that summer. He entered 2019 with a chance to push himself into the first round conversation with a good spring, but DeVito ultimately took a step back as a junior this year. The Staten Island native put up a 3.92 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and a 68/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 64.1 innings, looking great some days but getting hit hard on others. DeVito used a low to mid 90's fastball and a good curveball and changeup for his big 2018, but his velocity was down a tick in 2019 and his command took a step back as he struggled to keep his mechanics together consistently. From the Braves' perspective, getting him back to being consistent with those mechanics should help his stuff tick back up in pro ball, where he could be a #4 starter, and not turning 21 until August gives him a bit of extra time. However, he's trending in the wrong direction as it stands and he carries reliever risk if he can't figure out his command. DeVito signed for $167,500, which was $1,400 above slot, and he has a 5.79 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a 13/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 9.1 innings between the Gulf Coast League and Danville.

13-397: RHP Tyler Owens (Trinity Catholic HS [FL], unranked)
Tyler Owens is a high schooler from Ocala, Florida, who brings premium velocity from a short stature. Despite standing only 5'10", he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can blow it by hitters when he wants to. He's also got a slider and a changeup, though both lack the consistent finish that he will ultimately need in pro ball. Owens does a good job of transferring his power from his legs to his arm, but ratcheting a fastball up to 94-95 from a 5'10" frame still requires some effort regardless. It's kind of a reliever profile, but the Braves will hope to get his secondaries refined enough to get him into the back of a rotation. Owens was committed to Florida but signed for $547,500, which counted for $422,500 against the Braves' bonus pool, and he has a 4.76 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 5/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 5.2 innings between the Gulf Coast League and Danville.

16-487: RHP Joey Estes (Paraclete HS [CA], unranked)
Going well overslot again, the Braves grabbed Joey Estes from high school in Lancaster, California in the 16th round. He's a 6'2" righty with a live arm that produces running low 90's fastballs as well as a solid breaking ball with good depth, and he has shown feel for a changeup with some fade. Like a lot of kids his age, he needs to get more consistent with his mechanics and get more extension in his delivery as well as get more consistent with his arm slot, but he's got the talent and the Braves will hope to bring it out of him consistently. There is significant reliever risk here, though he also doesn't turn 18 until October and is very young for a high school senior. Committed to Long Beach State, he signed for $500,000, which counted for $375,000 against the Braves' bonus pool.