Showing posts with label Dean Curley. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dean Curley. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 23, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Cleveland Guardians

Full list of draftees

I always enjoy writing the Guardians' draft review because they always draft interesting players, and this year was no different. With four of the top seventy picks, including three picks in a seven pick span at #64, #66, and #70, they also had more draft capital than most other teams in the back of the first round. Usually a team to chase athletic, up-the-middle contact hitters, they pivoted this year to take hulking sluggers in both the first and fourth rounds as part of a class that began with six hitters in their first seven picks. After successfully injecting significant offensive upside into their system, they pivoted to pitching beginning in the sixth round and took eleven pitchers with their final fifteen picks, giving their lauded pitching development system plenty more clay to work with. Interestingly, there are a lot of buy-low candidates in this class (beginning with first rounder Jace LaViolette), a profile Cleveland has targeted with some frequency lately.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-27: OF Jace LaViolette, Texas A&M
Slot value: $3.38 million. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #23. MLB Pipeline: #20. Baseball America: #17.
Few teams draft as consistently on-brand as the Guardians, yet this first pick went against virtually everything they've ever targeted. Besides being known for drafting and developing a ton of arms, Cleveland's type is very well known when it comes to position players – young (often prep), up the middle talent with strong bat to ball even at the expense of some power. Jace LaViolette is, well, not that. Standing all of 6'6", 230 pounds, he showed up to his first fall practice in College Station back in 2022 and virtually from day one stood out as a potential superstar. He lived up to the hype, blasting 21 home runs to set a Texas A&M freshman record in 2023 before cranking it up a notch with 29 home runs and a .305/.449/.726 slash line in 2024. Widely considered a frontrunner for the first overall pick entering the season, he instead took a step back in 2025, dropping to "just" 18 home runs while his batting average fell to .258. LaViolette is a big, tall slugger. It's a tremendously forceful left handed swing that has produced plus-plus raw power in the past, though it played closer to "just" plus in 2025, and he can send the ball out to any part of any ballpark. Still, he prefers to go to the pull side with a swing designed to lift the ball to right field. Many try, but LaViolette overwhelmingly succeeds at doing so – a skill that is highly correlated to major league slugging success. This will enable him to tap every bit of his prodigious raw power in games going forward. The big issue here, of course, is strikeouts. They were already a concern in 2024, when he struck out 24.2% of the time, and he actually rose to 25.2% in 2025. That's high. The Houston-area product offsets the swing and miss a bit with an extremely patient approach that forces pitchers to come into the zone and led to a sky high 21.8% walk rate in 2025, but pro pitchers will pound him in the zone and his below average bat to ball skills will be tested. Cleveland does not need him to be a .300 hitter. Rather, he needs to make just enough contact to get the ball up in the air and run into his fair share of home runs. There are many similarities to Yankees prospect Spencer Jones, another towering left handed slugger who struggled mightily with swing and miss. Jones, who was drafted in a similar spot at #25 overall out of Vanderbilt in 2022, has been extremely streaky in the minors but has been red hot in 2025, now knocking on the door of Yankee Stadium. Also similarly to Jones, LaViolette is a very good defender for his size. He runs well underway once he gets that big frame moving and looks to be above average in right field, where his strong arm will be an asset as well. There has been some talk about him getting a shot in center field, where he saw the bulk of his time in College Station the past two seasons, and sticking there would be a very nice bonus to the profile. All in all, there is 30-40 home run upside here with high on-base percentages if he can clean it up inside the strike zone, with a high side outcome looking something like a more athletic Adam Dunn (likewise a Houston-area native).

2-64: SS Dean Curley, Tennessee
Slot value: $1.38 million. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #35. MLB Pipeline: #60. Baseball America: #39.
Dean Curley is another very interesting buy low pick. A Southern California native, he immediately hit his way into the Tennessee starting lineup as a freshman (though the age of a college sophomore), positioning himself as a potential first round pick in 2025. He got off to a hot start and his name started coming up in top ten conversations, but he faded just a little bit as the season wore on and scouts seemed to sour on his projections. Personally, I still see a very solid prospect here and I think he is great value in the back of the second round. Curley has a big league frame at 6'3", 220 pounds, maintaining a lean build while packing on plenty of strength. He channels that strength into a simple, efficient right handed swing that produces above average raw power, a grade that could get to plus as he continues to fill out. A patient hitter, he manages the strike zone well and regularly puts himself in counts where he can do damage, helping project for a potential average hit tool even if the pure bat to ball is a tick below. Much was made about his uneven sophomore season, but at the end of the day he still increased his home run total (12 to 14), improved each leg of his slash line (.285/.386/.502 to .315/.435/.531), and improved both his strikeout (17.5% to 16.0%) and walk (11.6% to 15.3%) rates over what was praised as a strong freshman campaign. Offensively, Curley projects as a potential 20+ home run hitter with middling on-base percentages. Defensively, there are question marks. He moves well for his size and has the athleticism and more than enough arm strength to handle any position on the field, including shortstop where he played almost every game in 2024 and saw some time in 2025. However, the biggest shadow on his 2025 season may have been a case of the yips. He routinely struggled to make basic throws and often looked like the game had sped up on him, which was not the case in 2024. The game will only get faster in professional baseball and he'll need to sink or swim if he wants to remain an infielder. The Volunteers moved Curley around to second and third base in an effort to get him more comfortable, and we'll ultimately see what the Guardians choose to do. If it really was just a one time case of the yips that can be cured with an offseason of low stakes training, he may very well end up a big league shortstop in the Willy Adames mold.

CBB-66: OF Aaron Walton, Arizona
Slot value: $1.32 million. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #144. MLB Pipeline: #161. Baseball America: #154.
Aaron Walton really, really quietly snuck up draft boards late, and even though I had him ahead of MLB Pipeline and Baseball America, I felt that I was probably under-ranking him and at least in terms of draft position that seems to be the case. He began his career at Samford and while he didn't set the world on fire, he showed enough for the Bulldogs to earn a transfer opportunity most of the way across the country at Arizona. It was there in Tucson that he blossomed into the day one pick he became, putting up better numbers against a tougher Big 12 schedule than he ever did against Samford's SoCon schedule. Walton lacks a carrying tool but does everything well. A relatively patient hitter, he will take his walks but doesn't miss an opportunity to put the ball in play, leading to a high on-base profile. The swing does get steep, but he adjusts well in and out of the zone and shows strong plate coverage. He's listed at the same 6'3", 220 pound height and weight as Dean Curley above him, and while he can't quite match Curley's above average power, he shows some thump from the right side and brings that power when he turns on pitches. In all, it's a profile that could produce 10-15 home runs annually with high on-base percentages. The Nashville-area product is just an average runner but he plays hard in center field and has a good chance to stick there, unless pushed off by a quicker defender. The median projection here is that of a fourth outfielder that can handle all three outfield positions and add some length to the bottom of the lineup, but the upside is an every day jack of all trades who hits a few spots below the middle of the lineup.

CBB-70: RHP Will Hynes, Lorne Park SS [ON]
Slot value: $1.19 million. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #163. Baseball America: #166.
Will Hynes was the first player drafted this year that had not been on my radar, and most publications had him pegged a few rounds later. While he may have flown under the radar here in the States, he was the talk of the town for Canadian scouts who saw his stuff take a step forward this spring. The fastball now sits in the low 90's and touches 95 at peak, playing above its velocity with significant running action that could make it a heat-seeking missile against right handed hitters as he adds more velocity. He is steadily gaining more feel for a high spin slider with nice sweep, average to above average much of the time but flashing plus at its best when he gets good finish on it. Hynes also throws a changeup with parachute action that has been inching forward, looking average for now with more in the tank down the line. The 6'2" righty has a very clean, easy delivery that helps him show above average command for a high school pitcher and should enable him to naturally add velocity as he fills out. Born triple sevens on 07/07/07, he's young for the class and has that much more time to grow as a pitcher. While Hynes might not have the explosive stuff or the same high upside as other high school draftees in the same draft range, the Toronto-area native comes more pro ready than most and could grow into a mid-rotation starter. He had been committed to Wake Forest and while the Guardians drafted him earlier than many expected, it was rumored to be a firm commitment and he still may be expensive.

3-101: OF Nolan Schubart, Oklahoma State
Slot value: $759,400. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #98. MLB Pipeline: #126. Baseball America: #63.
I mentioned that first rounder Jace LaViolette was virtually the opposite of Cleveland's archetype, but Nolan Schubart might be even more extreme in that direction – at least LaViolette is a solid athlete with a chance to play center field early in his career. Like LaViolette, Schubart stepped onto campus already a highly touted prospect, then produced a huge freshman season in 2023 before setting the world on fire in 2024 with 23 home runs and a ridiculous .370/.513/.838 slash line. There's an argument to be made that opposing pitching coaches had a bigger circle around his name than any other hitter in the Big 12. Like LaViolette, 2025 was a bit of a step back from a production standpoint and while he had been projected comfortably inside the top fifty picks entering the season, he ultimately fell outside the top one hundred. Schubart, of course, stands out for his power. He blasted 59 home runs in three seasons in Stillwater with monster, plus-plus raw juice that he gets to every bit of in games. It all comes from a burly 6'5", 225 pound frame that generates elite bat speed and ridiculous torque, enough to send this baseball 517 feet to the opposite field. He's a very patient hitter that has drawn 139 walks over three years and 164 games, forcing pitchers to come into the zone and helping him put up a .464 on-base percentage in that span. Unfortunately, pitchers do have success when they hit their spots in the zone. His pure bat to ball is well below average, leading to elevated strikeout totals. He has a tendency to lean over the plate as the pitch is delivered to really channel everything he has into crushing the baseball, which can cause him to get tied up when he's not on time. The projection here is that of a potential 30+ home run hitter but with low batting averages. Joey Gallo is always the classic comp here, though something like Jack Cust is also possible if he can scare pitchers out of the zone enough and take his walks. Schubart will have to make contact because he provides little to no defensive value. He's a lumbering, well below average runner for which playing a fringy left field will be a best case scenario, with first base or full time DH a real possibility. If he can recapture some of what he showed in 2024, the Guardians will be just fine with him at DH. He hails from the small town of Durand, Michigan, sitting between Flint and Lansing but Cleveland fans will be relieved to know he left the state for Oklahoma State rather than attend Michigan.

4-132: 3B Luke Hill, Mississippi
Slot value: $561,400. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #135. MLB Pipeline: #98. Baseball America: #105.
While Jace LaViolette and Nolan Schubart bring extreme power-over-everything profiles, Luke Hill bears more in common with Aaron Walton as a more balanced, steady profile. Yet another highly regarded prep prospect, he began his career at Arizona State and hit well as a freshman, then transferred back closer to home to attend Ole Miss for his sophomore and junior seasons. While his 2024 was a bit quieter, he stepped things up in 2025 and emerged as one of the better all-around prospects in the region. He is a very professional hitter that walked more than he struck out in both seasons in Oxford, leading to a .459 on-base percentage against tough competition in 2025. He has solid bat to ball as well, making for an overall above average hit tool. There is some present strength in his sturdy 6'1" frame and which helps him produce average raw power at peak, though his simple right handed swing and level approach lead to fringier power in games and he'll likely top out at 10-15 home runs per season in the majors. The defensive profile is similar to the offensive one, with average tools across the board including a steady glove and moderate arm strength. With average speed, he should make all the plays at the hot corner and he has just enough arm to stick over there. He can also handle second base if needed. Overall, the Baton Rouge native projects as a steady utility infielder though he will be stretched at shortstop.

6-192: LHP Nelson Keljo, Oregon State
Slot value: $325,100. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #182. Baseball America: #350.
Jesuit High School in Portland, Oregon has become a pitching factory as of late, producing two recent first round picks in Mick Abel (2020) and Noble Meyer (2023). Sandwiched between the two of them (and teammates with both) in the 2022 graduating class was Nelson Keljo, himself a highly regarded prep pitcher drawing scouts of his own in his draft year. Keljo made it to Oregon State anyways, where he pitched out of the bullpen to strong results (especially in 2024) before moving to the rotation in 2025. He was more good than great, and the Guardians grab him here in the sixth round. The 6'4" lefty has a big arm, sitting low 90's and touching as high as 97 in short stints with riding life that makes the pitch play above its velocity and jump on hitters. He mixes in an average slider with downward plane, though he prefers to gas hitters up with the fastball to get strikeouts. Keljo also throws a solid changeup that has taken a step forward in Corvallis, now looking like a potential above average offering with further refinement. He's a big guy that uses his height more than his athleticism to work down the mound, and after running a respectable 7.3% walk rate out of the bullpen in 2024, that number ballooned to 12.9% in 2025. If he is to remain a starter, Keljo will need rein that command back in as well as bring his secondary stuff along if he wants to start. The good news is that the Cleveland organization is a great place to do that, or he could let his fastball tick up and lean on it in a bullpen role.

9-282: LHP Ryan Prager, Texas A&M
Slot value: $197,200. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #170. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #177.
Ryan Prager has taken a bit of a circuitous route to get here. A relatively unheralded prospect as an underclassman at Texas A&M, unlike many other names in this Guardians class, he spent his freshman season in the rotation before missing his sophomore year with Tommy John surgery. Returning in 2024, he burst onto the scene as one of the most dominant arms in the SEC and, despite lacking big stuff, found himself drafted in the third round by the Angels. However, the two sides could not come to a deal and Prager became the top unsigned college prospect to return to school, where he had large NIL deals lined up. Unfortunately, both he and the rest of the Aggies had a disappointing season, watching his ERA inflate by over a run while his strikeout rate dropped from 31.2% to 20.9% and his walk rate rose from 5.0% to 6.0%. In 2024, Prager pitched with a fastball around 90 that topped out around 94, lacking big velocity but playing up with ride through the zone. That fastball often lived in the upper 80's in 2025. He throws an average slider and a straight changeup, helping round out an arsenal that can really play up due to his plus command of the baseball. However, his struggles to miss bats this season highlight the small margin of error these light stuff-arms work with, as just a small step backward bumped him from the third to the ninth round. Set to turn 23 in October, he'll look to add that tick back to his stuff and perhaps become a back-end starter. The 6'3" lefty is plenty physical and figures to be durable in whatever role he takes on.

14-432: SS Anthony Silva, Texas Christian
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #439.
Anthony Silva represents another buy-low draft pick. One of the top prep prospects in the state of Texas in 2022, he withdrew from the draft in order to attend TCU and at first the move looked to pay off as he hit .330/.416/.471 as the Horned Frogs' starting shortstop as a freshman in 2023. Entering his draft-eligible sophomore season as a potential first round pick, he instead took a step backwards and found his name discussed more in the third to fifth round range. He instead elected to return to school, where he ranked two spots behind Ryan Prager as the #3 unsigned college prospect, but unfortunately did not have the bounce back season he was hoping for in 2025. Silva has shown to be an average hitter over the past two seasons. He's patient at the plate, but pitchers have attacked him in the zone more often due to his lack of impact and he falls behind in counts too often. There is solid bat to ball, enough to keep his strikeouts reasonable, though it has regressed as his strikeout rate rose from just 12.5% as a freshman to a combined 18.1% over the past two seasons. Always wiry and skinny, a portion of Silva's draw as a prospect stemmed from the projection in his 6'2" frame that could help him grow into average or better power in time. That power never materialized and the seven home runs he hit as a freshman remains his career high, and at the point he projects to average about ten home runs per season at the big league level. The San Antonio native still brings value on defense, where he projects to stick at shortstop. Depending on when you saw him, you could have seen a steady, fluid defender with plenty of range to be an above average defender there, though he has been just a bit stiffer over the past couple seasons. Overall, if Silva can recapture his freshman magic, he has a shot to be a high contact utility man at the big league level. He turned 22 shortly after the draft.

15-462: RHP Evan Chrest, Florida State
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #315.
Evan Chrest burst onto the scene with a huge freshman season as Jacksonville's ace, but he took a step back in his sophomore season as his strikeout rate dropped and his ERA more than doubled. Florida State still came calling, and he came out with three strong midweek starts (including one against his former team) before leaving his fourth start with an elbow injury, ending his season. Chrest sits in the low 90's with his fastball and touches 95 at peak, not overwhelming velocity but enough. The fastball plays up due to riding life through the zone and a low release, causing it to jump on hitters and sneak over bats at the top of the zone. He throws both a true sweeping slider and a tighter cutter, while his changeup shows nice fade to the arm side and gives him a fourth reliable pitch. He's a good athlete that repeats his delivery well and shows above average command when healthy, giving him a real chance to start. On the flip side, he'll need to prove that health coming back from his elbow injury and at an even six feet tall, he's not the largest starting pitcher in the world. The Tampa native could see his stuff take a step forward in the bullpen, though that would feel like a waste of his deep arsenal. The Guardians are certainly a good organization for him to sneak up on analysts and come out as a late draft success story.

Tuesday, January 28, 2025

2025 MLB Draft: Ten candidates to go first overall

For the second consecutive season, the Washington Nationals have won the MLB Draft Lottery, and for the third straight year they have positioned themselves for a top-two pick. They were ineligible to claim that number one overall pick last year and wound up selecting Seaver King tenth overall, but this time they'll do so for the first time since selecting Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper first overall in back to back drafts in 2009 and 2010. There is no clear frontrunner at this point, with bats Ethan Holliday and Jace LaViolette seemingly separating themselves as the most famous prospects in the draft for now, but pure hit tool questions are present for both. Behind them, two college arms have risen to the top of a shallow class in that regard, while Holliday narrowly leads an incredibly deep class of high school bats.

LHP Jamie Arnold, Florida State. My rank: #1.
Between Jamie Arnold and Tyler Bremner, the clear cut top two college arms in this class, Bremner is the more traditional prospect while Arnold brings a more unique, new school profile. That would seemingly make Bremner the more likely target for Washington, a more traditional organization, but Arnold has been so good that he's certainly worth keeping an eye on and he has pushed to the top of my draft board. In a year where offense was up across the board, Arnold seemingly missed the memo and went 11-3 with a 2.89 ERA and 159 strikeouts, the latter of which was far and away the highest total of any underclassman in the country – the next best sophomore was Wofford righty Zac Cowan, whose 124 strikeouts came while pitching against weaker competition in the SoCon as opposed to Arnold's ACC schedule. The stuff here is dynamite. Arnold's low to mid 90's fastball peaks at 97, impressive velocity for a lefty in its own right. His best pitch is a plus slider that dives across the plate with a foot of sweeping action, sending ACC hitters flailing and likely to make even MLB hitters look foolish when he snaps it right. While he primarily relies on the fastball and slider, his changeup has made strides and is looking like a solid average pitch with above average flashes and could be a game changer if it continues to improve. Everything plays up out of Arnold's hand due to his sidearm delivery, creating an ultra low release height that creates a very uncomfortable at bat for hitters. The low release point puts more run and sink on his fastball than ride, but it's still effective both up and down in the zone. Meanwhile, the 6'1" lefty has one more trait that makes him a unicorn, and that's his command. If it's tough enough facing a sidearming lefty with a fastball up to 97 and a devastating slider, he compounds that by pounding the strike zone and walking just 5.8% of his opponents last year, a feat virtually unheard of from his profile. The Tampa native has true ace upside if he can continue to develop on a normal path.
What the Nationals will look for in 2025: The book is straightforward here. The fastball and slider are good to go. Arnold's biggest focus should be refining his changeup, as continuing its positive trajectory by upping its usage in 2025 and truly incorporating it into his arsenal will make him a complete pitcher. I believe he can do it. Then of course, command is always the last X factor. Arnold has the command right now, so he'll simply need to avoid taking a step back in that regard in 2025. Though it's not the profile the Nationals look for, a three pitch lefty with explosive stuff and above average command will be hard for Mike Rizzo to overlook.

OF Jace LaViolette, Texas A&M. My rank: #2.
At this point, Jace LaViolette appears to be the very slight frontrunner as the best prospect in the class. A superstar since his very first days on campus at Texas A&M, he has done nothing but blast fifty home runs and slash .297/.433/.683 in 132 games for the Aggies so far, all before he could legally buy a drink. If the Nationals want an impact bat at the top of the draft, they should look no further. The power is unquestionable. Standing 6'6", LaViolette's left handed swing is naturally geared towards lofting balls to the pull side while his extra large frame provides the power to send balls rocketing off his barrel. While the swing is more pull-oriented, he has more than enough power to leave the park to any field at any time, and his 29 home runs in 2024 were the most by any non-draft-eligible college hitter last year. The Houston-area native is a patient hitter who also led all underclassmen with 64 walks last season, helping him spit on breaking balls and get that fastball he loves to crush. LaViolette's primary weakness is against quality offspeed in the zone, with his long levers causing some swing and miss issues that led to an elevated 24.3% strikeout rate last year. No matter how much power you have, striking out a quarter of the time makes it tough to get drafted in the first round, let alone first overall. Last year, only two first rounders ran strikeout rates of 20% or higher – #12 pick Braden Montgomery (20%) and #22 pick Vance Honeycutt (27.5%). LaViolette is a solid runner underway, though at his size he lacks the quick twitch first step to play center field and likely settles into right field, where he should be an above average defender with an above average arm. These days many tall college sluggers get compared to Aaron Judge, but it's an apt comp for LaViolette with the caveat that he bats left handed. As it stands today, no hitter in this draft has a better chance to anchor a big league lineup as an MVP-caliber bat.
What the Nationals will look for in 2025: The power is there. The approach is there. He's gotten opportunities to play center field while in college and while proving he could stick there would go a long way towards slotting him into the first overall pick, that does seem a bit unlikely and the Nationals are probably more or less comfortable projecting him as a right fielder. That leaves the hit tool as the primary barometer here. If he can continue to keep the chases down and cut down the in zone swing and miss, getting his strikeout rate under about 20% or preferably even lower would be the best thing he could do for his chances to go first overall.

RHP Tyler Bremner, UC Santa Barbara. My rank: #3.
It's a very different profile, but Tyler Bremner is every bit as talented as Jamie Arnold and as a more traditional starting pitcher, he probably fits the Nationals' mold a little better. Bremner was one of the better pitching prospects in Southern California in 2022, but made it to campus at UC Santa Barbara and broke out for an excellent 2024 in which he went 11-1 with a 2.54 ERA and a 104/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.2 innings. The fastball sits mid 90's and touches 98, a tick harder than Arnold, coming in with a ton of riding life out of a relatively low release point. He throws a plus slider that works between a sweeper and more of a gyro pitch, getting the type of break he needs for the situation. A separator here from Arnold, though is his changeup. While Arnold is mostly a fastball/slider guy right now, Bremner might have the best changeup in the draft with massive drop that just dives under bats with ease. Listed at 6'2", 190 pounds, he's big enough to handle a starter's workload and repeats his delivery well, helping him pound the strike zone with average command and above average control. It's an extremely well-rounded profile with no holes, with a high probability of becoming a mid-rotation starter or better.
What the Nationals will look for in 2025: Bremner already has a chance for three plus pitches, so there's nothing on the to-do list there. Like most college pitchers, he'll just need to focus on the two classics – stay healthy and stay in the strike zone. Having already thrown 144 innings over two years in Santa Barbara thus far, health hasn't been an issue yet, and his 6.4% career walk rate is plenty low enough to satisfy a picky front office. Fine tuning his command within the zone while maintaining his high end stuff could get him over the hump to the first overall pick.

SS Ethan Holliday, Stillwater HS [OK]. My rank: #4.
Three years ago, Jackson Holliday was the first overall pick of the 2022 draft, but younger brother Ethan enters his senior season at Stillwater High School in Oklahoma as a much better prospect. Jackson entered the 2022 draft cycle with more of an early second round projection, then came out for his senior year looking significantly more physical and put up a fantastic season to push his way to the top of the draft. Ethan, however, is already there and the 1-1 spot is well within reach. First off, he has four inches and fifteen-plus pounds on his older brother, leading to a very different profile. While Jackson was a hit-over-power type who grew into his pop, Ethan easily projects for plus power with a powerful left handed swing that naturally lofts the ball to make use of his imposing 6'4" frame. Having grown up around the game with a pair of Oklahoma State head coaches in his family and an MLB All Star father, Holliday's high baseball IQ is apparent on the field. He controls the strike zone well and taps his power in games, though at this point his long levers can create some swing and miss in the zone. At the top of the draft, defensive value is important, and Ethan provides that as well. A shortstop at present, he shows the same polish and baseball IQ on the dirt with smooth actions and a strong arm, though his size and lack of first step quickness will likely push him to third base in the long run. He'll still be solid to above average at the hot corner. While some prospect fatigue may have set in at this point, it would be perfectly reasonable for Holliday to match his older brother's draft position on his way to belting 30+ home runs annually to go with solid on-base percentages with a strong glove on the left side of the infield.
What the Nationals will look for in 2025: Holliday's biggest obstacle may be prospect fatigue at this point, having been closely followed since his freshman year of high school, which was also his brother's senior year. No one is questioning the power, but he'll have to make more contact than perhaps others in his position to stop that prospect fatigue from creeping up. More evaluators have questioned his pure bat to ball over the past six months ago, and while he won't face the toughest competition in northern Oklahoma, he'll want to keep the swing and miss to a minimum. Additionally, it will be helpful to show a little more athleticism to give hope he can stick at shortstop.

RHP Seth Hernandez, Corona HS [CA]. My rank: #6.
No high school right handed pitcher has ever gone first overall, and with NIL drawing more talent to college and teams pivoting just a little bit away from pitchers early in the draft, it seems less likely than ever to happen. Over the past seventeen years, the Nationals have drafted just one high school pitcher, Mason Denaburg (2018), in the first round. Seth Hernandez, though, has a chance to be the best high school pitching prospect since Jackson Jobe in 2021, and for that reason it's not out of the question that he ends both of those droughts. It's a huge right arm that sits in the mid 90's and reached triple digits over the summer, though the pitch stands out more for its velocity than its movement. His breaking ball is still searching for its identity, ranging from slurvy curveball to a cuttery sweeper to more of a bullet slider. At this point, that's the lone hole in his profile. Similar to Tyler Bremner, he throws a devastating changeup with late diving action that leaves high school hitters helpless, a true separator for a teenage pitcher. Though he's up there tickling triple digits, Hernandez has a smooth, athletic delivery with little wasted movement and nice extension down the mound. That lets him pound the strike zone with reasonably solid command, which should hold as he continues to fill out. The Southern California native has top of the rotation upside if he puts it together.
What the Nationals will look for in 2025: Health and command are evergreen checkboxes in this section for any pitcher, and of course Hernandez needs to stay healthy and throw his share of strikes. The big opportunity here, though, will be his breaking ball. His fastball and changeup are already both plus pitches, so finding a more consistent slider and/or curveball could make him a truly complete pitching prospect. At present, he probably belongs more in the 5-10 range on talent (bonus demands notwithstanding).

SS Eli Willits, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS [OK]. My rank: #7.
We're going to talk about Jackson Holliday again. While his younger brother, Ethan, is arguably the most famous name in this draft and has his sights set on 1-1, it's actually Eli Willits who shares the most similarities to the Orioles' shortstop of the future. Willits, like Holliday, is the son of a former major leaguer and current college coach, Reggie Willits, and lives in rural Oklahoma. With a similar average frame that isn't quite physically mature yet and a game predicated more on polish than present physicality, extending further similarities to Holliday. Holliday came out for his senior season in 2022 looking more physical than he had in the past, and early indications are that Willits may be in the same boat which is creating significant heat for the prep infielder. He's a switch hitter with a very simple swing from both sides of the plate, using his excellent plate coverage to go with the pitch and drive the ball with authority to all fields consistently. This has enabled him to be one of the top performers on the showcase circuit for a long time despite playing against much older competition – he only turned 17 in December, making him a full year younger, even a year in a half in some cases, than most of his counterparts. The power isn't quite there yet, as he's listed at just 165 pounds for now and needs to really turn on and crank the ball to get it out. That's where the age comes in again, with the hope that his youth brings significant added physicality going forward. Similar to his offense, he brings a polished glove at shortstop with above average arm and range to give him a good shot to stick at the premium position. He's also quick enough to play center field if needed, but the Nationals likely won't need that with much more depth in the grass than the dirt.
What the Nationals will look for in 2025: Jackson Holliday entered his senior season with a strikingly similar profile to Eli Willits, then came out looking much more physical in the spring. It appears Willits is tacking on physicality as well, so if added impact and over the fence power comes this spring as well, he could follow the exact same path to the first overall pick. He's set to play his entire pro debut at 17 years old, so the power should be coming. Proving he can stick at shortstop, which is not unlikely, will also help.

SS Aiva Arquette, Oregon State. My rank: #11.
The top prospect in a loaded Oregon State lineup that also includes Trent Caraway (#26), Gavin Turley (#33), and Dallas Macias (unranked), Aiva Arquette is a scout favorite who seems to be a "pick to click" for many. A highly regarded high school prospect from the Honolulu area, he put up a strong sophomore season at Washington in 2024 (12 HR, .325/.384/.574) then raised his profile further by hitting .291/.357/.437 on the Cape and impressing evaluators as he improved throughout. Clocking in at 6'4", 220 pounds, he has a big league body right now and has seen his on-field production steadily improve to match. He channels that size into above average power which he taps naturally with the ability to drive the ball in the air with authority. His approach is somewhat aggressive, which has led to subpar strikeout to walk ratios in Seattle and on the Cape, but he makes plenty of contact despite a swoopier right handed swing and is trending hard in the right direction. His bigger size might make shortstop a tough sell, but he has the mobility and arm strength to play an above average third base down the road. Similar to his offense, scouts have been impressed by the progress he's made with his glove and some believe he can stick at shortstop. With his glove and bat both trending hard in the right direction, he has a chance to turn himself into an above average all around hitter with the defense to stick on the left side of the infield and a track record of hitting through high school, college, and summer leagues.
What the Nationals will look for in 2025: Arquette may not be the flashiest option at the top of the draft, but if he cuts his chases in 2025, the strikeout rate will likely follow and he'll have a very productive season in Corvallis. Additionally, continuing to show well at shortstop will up his value if the Nationals believe he can stick there. If Arquette does go first overall, he would likely be an under-slot option due to a lower ceiling.

LHP Cameron Appenzeller, Glenwood HS [IL]. My rank: #15.
Glenwood High School just outside of Springfield, Illinois has produced numerous major leaguers, most notably former Nationals star Jayson Werth. If Mike Rizzo wants another Glenwood alumnus, Cameron Appenzeller could be an interesting option. As mentioned under Seth Hernandez, the Nationals have taken just one high school pitcher in the first round over the past seventeen years, but it can always happen. Appenzeller is a 6'6" lefty, which will already make scouts sit up and take notice. The fastball isn't overwhelming, sitting in the low 90's and peaking around 94, and he works between both a four and two seam. He has a nice, deep slider with plenty of sweep that he shows good feel for, working it to both sides of the plate and understanding how to deploy it to get the best results. His changeup gives him a third solid option with nice fade. Appenzeller does not sell out for velocity, instead using an athletic, free and easy delivery to help him pound the strike zone with better command than most high school pitchers. His low three quarters arm slot creates a tough look for hitters, with a low, wide release point and an east-west profile. He's not quite a top ten pick at this point, but he could get there quickly as soon as the Southern Illinois weather warms up this spring with all the ingredients to become an ace.
What the Nationals will look for in 2025: Command is always the X factor, and while he shows good command for a high school arm, Appenzeller of course has a long ways to go in that regard like any teenager. In order to vault into the 1-1 conversation, though, he'll need to add significant velocity to his fastball and power to his breaking ball. With plenty of projection, that could certainly happen if he comes out a little more filled out this spring. Those strength gains would also allow the velocity to come naturally so that he can keep pounding the strike zone with his low effort delivery. Appenzeller has ace upside if he adds power across his arsenal.

SS Dean Curley, Tennessee. My rank: #18.
We're moving farther away from the current contenders for the first overall pick, but I'm a believer in Dean Curley's skill set and I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit his way to the top. It's not easy to barge into Knoxville and claim the starting shortstop role as a freshman, but Curley did just that and hit .285/.386/.502 in 67 games last year. Having turned 19 while he was still in high school, he entered school the age of a college sophomore and will be draft-eligible and age-appropriate this year. He's a lean, physical 6'3" with an efficient right handed swing that causes the ball to jump off his bat with eye-popping exit velocities, lending to above average power.  Meanwhile, he's a disciplined hitter that makes contact at a high rate, which kept his strikeout rate to a reasonable 17.5% as a freshman and which will likely help him lower it further in 2025. Together, as he fills out his still-projectable frame, he has a chance to become an above average hitter with above average power. He doesn't have quite as much juice as last year's eighth overall pick and former Volunteer Christian Moore, and he's a better pure hitter, but his balanced bat could help him break out in a similar way in 2025. To this point, Curley has shown well at shortstop with the requisite instincts and mobility to go with a cannon right arm. Most projections have him moving to third base in time, where like Aiva Arquette he'll fit better given his size and lack of explosive athleticism.
What the Nationals will look for in 2025: I don't think there is one specific X factor for Curley. Last year, his under-the-hood numbers were better than his surface numbers, and he'll look for the latter to catch up to the former in 2025. The Nationals don't necessarily need major leaps from Curley in any one area, rather they'll look for him to elevate his game by about a half grade or so in all aspects - power, contact, defense, and overall athleticism. I'm a believer that Curley can do that.

RHP Chase Shores, Louisiana State. My rank: #38.
If the draft were today, Chase Shores may not even go in the first round, but he may have the best chance of any non-first round prospects at this point to push himself into consideration at the top of the draft. Shores was a well-known prospect out of high school in West Texas, then showed well to start his freshman season at LSU in 2023. Unfortunately, he went down with Tommy John surgery after seven appearances and missed his entire sophomore season, so he enters 2025 with just 18.1 innings under his belt. However, his huge stuff gives him every chance to vault forward. Listed at a massive 6'8", 245 pounds, he comes with as much arm strength as any pitcher in the class, capable of sitting in the mid to upper 90's for innings at a time and touching as high as 102 back in high school. The slider has big potential, too, with his best flashing plus with hard two-plane snap, though it can be inconsistent. His changeup plays well off his fastball and could be an above average pitch with increased usage, giving him a chance for three above average to plus pitches. The delivery is a bit raw at this point, but it's important to note that he hasn't had much chance to work on it since coming to campus. He showed fringy command in his brief stint in 2023.
What the Nationals will look for in 2025: To put it simply, everything. They'll want to see him come back healthy, first and foremost, and shoulder a full season's load. Then, they'll look to see if he has ironed out his delivery now that he's healthy and hopefully work to average or better command. Above average command would of course be a long shot, but the stuff is so loud that he might still be a National with average command if everything else breaks right. If that slider that has ranged between average and plus can come out more consistently plus this spring, and if the changeup can emerge as consistently above average, then he might be just fine with average command and a fastball approaching triple digits. It's a long to-do list, but Shores has very little mileage on his arm since coming to Baton Rouge and a clean bill of health could be just what the doctor ordered.

Other Options
#5 3B Xavier Neyens, Mount Vernon HS [WA]
#8 OF Cam Cannarella, Clemson
#9 SS/RHP Billy Carlson, Corona HS [CA]
#13 OF Sean Gamble, IMG Academy [FL]
#16 LHP/1B Kruz Schoolcraft, Sunset HS [OR]