Thursday, September 7, 2017

Minor League Awards

With the minor league season coming to a close, it's time to hand out the awards for the best hitters and pitchers. Please note that this is not based on prospect status, but on performance. Performance in different levels will be weighed roughly the same to allow the awards to expand outside of just AA and AAA, though players from higher levels will get a closer look. Some general minor league information: the levels are, from highest to lowest, AAA, AA, High A, Class A, Short Season A, Rookie, and complex (GCL, AZL, DSL, VSL). The California League (one of three leagues in High A) is extremely hitter-friendly and gives a Coors Field-type effect to players' stats, while the Pacific Coast League (one of two leagues in AAA) and Pioneer League (one of two Rookie leagues) are also very hitter-friendly. The Florida State League (one of three leagues in High A) is very pitcher-friendly, and the Texas League (one of three leagues in AA) and Midwest League (one of two leagues in Class A) also lean pitcher-friendly. Most others are relatively neutral. I'll also reference my 2015, 2016, and 2017 draft rankings a fair amount. The way I weight them is like this: 2015 was just a learning year, one where I made my first list through trial with no error yet to learn from. 2016 was my warm-up year, the one where I had been through a year of rankings but still didn't have much error to learn from. 2017 was my first real year.

Minor League Hitter of the Year

Winner: Bo Bichette (Blue Jays Class A and High A): 14 HR, 74 RBI, .362 AVG, 22 SB, 181 wRC+
If you want to see some crazy numbers, look no further than Blue Jays prospect Bo Bichette. One of two Jays' teenagers/sons of MLB stars to post huge breakout seasons (see Vladimir Guerrero Jr.), the son of Dante Bichette has blown every expectation out of the water. Drafted in the second round (66th overall) out of a Florida high school in 2016, I liked his swing but had just enough doubt in his ability to tone it down that I ranked him 77th. As it turns out, he'd be a top ten or even top five pick if the draft happened again. Bichette tore up the complex-level Gulf Coast League immediately following his signing in 2016 (.427/.451/.732 in 22 games) and picked up right where he left off in 2017. Less than a year after graduating high school, the 19 year old was assigned to Class A Lansing in the Midwest League, where he absolutely ripped the cover off the ball, slashing .384/.448/.623 with 32 doubles, three triples, and ten home runs in 70 games, adding in 12 stolen bases in 15 tries to boot. This added up to a ridiculous .476 wOBA and a 201 wRC+, forcing the Jays to move their budding star to High Class A Dunedin in the tough Florida State League. There, he turned a bit more human (until you remember he's still 19 years old), slashing .323/.379/.463 with nine doubles, a triple, four home runs, and ten stolen bases in 40 games. Combined, he finished his season slashing .362/.423/.565 with 41 doubles, four triples, and 14 home runs, giving him 59 extra base hits in 110 games to go along with 22 stolen bases and a very high OBP. If he can begin to turn those doubles into home runs, Bichette has a very good chance to be an All Star at the next level.

Runner-Up: Austin Hays (Orioles High A and AA): 32 HR, 95 RBI, .329 AVG, 5 SB, 164 wRC+
It may just be Hays' first full pro season, but he's already made a mockery out of three different levels. After being drafted in the third round (91st overall) out of Jacksonville University in 2016, he slashed .336/.386/.514 with four home runs in a 38 game debut in the New York-Penn League. To start the season, he was handed an aggressive assignment to High Class A Frederick, where he did nothing but rake. Over 64 games, he slashed .328/.364/.592 with 16 home runs, posting a .422 wOBA and a 167 wRC+ for the Keys. Promoted to AA Bowie two weeks before his 22nd birthday and barely a year after he was drafted, he put up virtually the same numbers, slashing .330/.367/.594 with 16 home runs, a .418 wOBA, and a 161 wRC+ over 64 games. That's a combined 32 home runs and an OPS of .958 this season for the Daytona Beach native. As I was writing this paragraph, the Orioles called him up to the major leagues, where he could be a significant piece in the Baltimore lineup in time. I ranked him 117th in my 2016 rankings, 26 spots below where the Orioles took him, and I admittedly overlooked his offensive capability. I noted his quick swing and his knack for making contact, but I was worried about his balance and power projection and those now seem like they won't be issues. Hays' one spot for improvement offensively this year is in his patience, as he walked in just 4.4% of his plate appearances. Going forward, that will be important, and his lack of OBP skills could turn him into a Yulieski Gurriel type hitter at the next level.

Honorable Mention: Ronald Acuna (Braves High A, AA, and AAA): 21 HR, 82 RBI, .325 AVG, 44 SB, 155 wRC+
Acuna is one of this year's biggest breakout stars, and his huge season has put him at or near the top of every updated prospect list out there. He was profiled a few weeks ago in my Minor League Watch, and with good reason. The 19 year old has played at three levels this year and has actually improved at each stop. He slashed .287/.336/.478 (.370 wOBA, 135 wRC+) in 28 games at High Class A Florida in the tough Florida State League, then slashed .326/.374/.520 (.404 wOBA, 159 wRC+) in 57 games at AA Mississippi, followed by a .344/.393/.548 line (.413 wOBA, 162 wRC+) in 54 games at AAA Gwinnett. He's getting better and better with each promotion, and the best part is that he's still a teenager. Even his strikeout rate dropped from 31.7% at High A to 23% at AA and 19.8% at AAA, while his walk rates have remained mostly steady (6.3%, 7.4%, 7.0%). He's probably a bit too raw to play in the majors today, as he needs to continue to make progress on his approach, but every arrow points towards "future superstar" for Acuna. I haven't even mentioned that he stole 44 bases this year, albeit while being caught 20 times.

Others: Rhys Hoskins (PHI AAA: 29 HR, 91 RBI, .284 AVG, 4 SB, 166 wRC+), Ryan McMahon (COL AA and AAA, 20 HR, 88 RBI, .355 AVG, 11 SB, 157 wRC+), Jeremy Barfield (BOS AA and AAA, 28 HR, 76 RBI, .293 AVG, 1 SB, 161 wRC+), Nick Senzel (CIN High A and AA, 14 HR, 65 RBI, .321 AVG, 14 SB, 164 wRC+)

Even when you don't include Rhys Hoskins' incredible first month in the majors, he was having a special season, slashing .284/.385/.581 with 29 home runs over 115 games at AAA Lehigh Valley. Those look like pretty good numbers on the surface, but when you adjust for the fact that the International League tends to lean a tad pitcher-friendly, you get an excellent 166 wRC+, better than both Hays (164) and Acuna (155). Combine his 26 MLB games and the man has 41 home runs with a .291/.395/.614 line over 141 games. Ryan McMahon slashed .326/.390/.536 with six home runs in 49 games at AA Hartford before a promotion to AAA Albuquerque, where he caught fire in the hitter-friendly environment. In 70 games, the 22 year old slashed .374/.411/.612 with 14 home runs and 23 doubles, earning a promotion to the major leagues for the Rockies. Jeremy Barfield spent most of 2017 with AA Portland, where he slashed .288/.359/.584 with 27 home runs in the pitcher-friendly environment. He got a brief, three game promotion to AAA Pawtucket, where he cracked five hits, including a home run, in eleven at bats while walking four times in the series against Rochester. Lastly, Nick Senzel was picked second overall by the Reds in 2016 out of the University of Tennessee, and so far, he's lived up to the billing. Starting the season at High Class A Daytona in the Florida State League, he slashed .305/.371/.476 with four home runs and 26 doubles in 62 games. Promoted to AA Pensacola, he caught fire, slashing .340/.413/.560 with ten home runs over 57 games, and if it weren't for an injury at the end of the season, he might have earned a call-up to the big club in September.

Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Winner: Jon Duplantier (ARI Class A and High A): 12-3, 1.39 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 165/42 K/BB
After overlooking Austin Hays and being conservative with Bo Bichette, I had better luck with the pitchers in my 2016 rankings. Jon Duplantier, then with Rice University, ranked 45th in my rankings before the 2016 draft due to his nasty stuff, but he lasted until pick 89 (3rd round) due to shoulder concerns. Turns out my optimism paid off, as Duplantier has absolutely dominated this season. Starting off at Class A Kane County, he completely overmatched his opponents, going 6-1 with a 1.24 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP, striking out 78 and walking just 15 in 72.2 innings for the Cougars. Promoted to High Class A Visalia in the extremely hitter-friendly California League, he seemingly forgot that he was in a hitters' paradise and went 6-2 with a 1.56 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP, this time striking out 87 and walking 27 in 63.1 innings. Combined, that's a 1.39 ERA and a very strong 34.1 strikeout percentage. In his 25 games, all but one of which lasted at least 5 innings, he never allowed more than three earned runs in any start and allowed either zero or one earned run in 19 of the 25. I noted before the 2016 draft that health aside, Duplantier's ticket to a big league rotation would be improving his command, and it looks like he has made progress there. Total batters faced/walk percentage data isn't available for Duplantier's time at Rice, but we can look at the slightly inferior walks per nine innings. In his junior year at Rice in 2016, he walked 3.81 per nine, but that fell to 1.86 at Class A this year. It jumped back up to 3.84 at High A, but that's in a very hitter-friendly environment following a promotion so we can give him the benefit of the doubt. He still has work to do on his command, but he has become one of the lone bright spots in a very barren Diamondbacks farm system.

Runner-Up: Corbin Burnes (MIL High A and AA): 8-3, 1.67 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 140/36 K/BB
Two pitchers, two wins for my 2016 draft rankings. I ranked the then-St. Mary's pitcher 48th due to his athleticism, velocity, and promising offspeed stuff, but industry concerns about the future development of said offspeed pitches as well as questions about his durability dropped him to the fourth round, where the Brewers took him 111th. Apparently, those offspeed pitches came along like I predicted, as he absolutely dominated the mid minors this year. Starting off in High Class A Carolina, he couldn't have been any better, going 5-0 with a 1.05 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP over ten starts, striking out 56 and walking 16 in 60 innings. Promoted to AA Biloxi, the 22 year old was still great, going 3-3 with a 2.10 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP, this time striking out 84 and walking just 20 in 85.2 innings. On August 21st, in a AA game against Mobile (Angels AA), he tossed eight shutout innings on just two hits and two walks, striking out eight BayBears while throwing just 94 pitches. He should be in the big league rotation, assuming there is space, by next season. Combined with his 2.02 ERA in 2016, he now has a career 1.74 ERA through 181.1 minor league innings. 

Honorable Mention: Jack Flaherty (STL AA and AAA): 14-4, 2.18 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 147/35 K/BB
Flaherty, a 2014 first round pick out of the same California high school that produced Lucas Giolito and Max Fried, broke out this year in a big way. His first three pro seasons were pretty good (including a 2.84 ERA at Class A Peoria in 2015), but 2017 was something else entirely. Beginning his season at AA Springfield, he completely shut down Texas League competition by going 7-2 with a 1.42 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 62/11 strikeout to walk ratio in 63.1 innings. Promoted to AAA Memphis in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, he became more human but still put up very dominant numbers considering the league production, going 7-2 (again) with a 2.74 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and an 85/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 85.1 innings. That earned him a promotion to the big club, and he made his MLB debut with the Cardinals on September 1st. Overall, 2017 could not have gone any better for the 6'4" righty, who added a few miles per hour to his fastball and sharpened his offspeed pitches this year. Throw in Luke Weaver (MLB), Alex Reyes (MLB/AAA), Zac Gallen (AAA), Dakota Hudson (AAA), and Austin Gomber (AA), and aside from the Braves, the Cardinals may have the best crop of advanced young pitching in baseball. 

Others: Tyler Mahle (CIN AA and AAA: 10-7, 2.06 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 138/30 K/BB), Rogelio Armenteros (HOU AA and AAA: 10-4, 2.04 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 146/38 K/BB), Joey Lucchesi (SD High A and AA: 11-7, 2.20 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 148/33 K/BB), Merandy Gonzalez (MIA Class A and High A: 13-3, 1.66 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 103/26 K/BB)

Tyler Mahle had possibly the best single month of any pitcher this year, starting off his season 4-0 with a 0.55 ERA and a 0.52 WHIP over five April starts for AA Pensacola, including a perfect game against Mobile (Angels AA). Over 14 AA starts, he ultimately finished 7-3 with a 1.59 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and an 87/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 innings before being promoted to AAA Louisville. There, he succeeded again, finishing 3-4 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over ten starts, striking out 51 and walking 13 in 59.1 innings before earning a call-up to the Reds at the end of August. Rogelio Armenteros broke out in a huge way in 2017, starting off by dominating the Texas League by going 2-3 with a 1.93 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP over 14 games (10 starts), striking out 74 and walking 19 in 65.1 innings for AA Corpus Christi. Promoted to AAA Fresno in the tough Pacific Coast League, he was just as good, going 8-1 with a 2.16 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, striking out 72 and walking 19 in 58.1 innings. On August 26th, the Cuban native shut down Tacoma (Mariners AAA) through eight innings, allowing just one hit and one walk while striking out eight. Joey Lucchesi was drafted in the fourth round out of Southeast Missouri State in 2016, and began the year in the extremely hitter-friendly California League. No worries, as he went 6-4 with a 2.52 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP over 14 starts for High Class A Lake Elsinore, striking out 95 and walking just 19 in 78.2 innings. At AA San Antonio, he went 5-3 with a 1.79 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP, striking out 53 and walking 14 in 60.1 innings. Lastly, we have Merandy Gonzalez, who broke out this year with a huge season in the mid minors. Starting with Class A Columbia in the Mets organization, Gonzalez went 8-1 with a 1.55 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP, striking out 65 and walking 13 in 69.2 innings. That performance earned him a call-up to High Class A Port St. Lucie, but he was traded to the Marlins at the deadline in the A.J. Ramos deal and finished out the season at High Class A Jupiter. Between Port St. Lucie and Jupiter, both in the Florida State League, he put up more excellent numbers, going 5-2 with a 1.78 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, striking out 38 and walking 13 in 60.2 innings. The combined ERA of 1.66 tempted me to rank him higher, but I kept him seventh due to the pitcher-friendly nature of the Florida State League as well as his low strikeout rate in that league (15.4%).

Friday, September 1, 2017

Astros Bolster Rotation With Justin Verlander

Astros get: Justin Verlander (10-8, 3.82 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 176/67 K/BB, Age 34)
Cash and a player to be named later

Tigers get: Franklin Perez (6-3, 3.02 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 78/27 K/BB at High Class A and AA, Age 19)
Jake Rogers (18 HR, 70 RBI, .263 AVG, 14 SB at Class A and High Class A, Age 22)
Daz Cameron (14 HR, 73 RBI, .271 AVG, 32 SB, 128 wRC+ at Class A, Age 20)

This trade is great for both sides. Detroit has made it clear that they are in a rebuild, having already dealt J.D. Martinez, Justin Wilson, Alex Avila, and Justin Upton (today), and the Astros are trying to get over the hump and win their first World Series Championship. The Astros (80-53) are the team to beat in the relatively weak American League this year, with the Indians (76-56) and Red Sox (76-58) proving to be closer to "generally good" than "powerhouse." The story isn't quite the same in the NL, as both the Dodgers (91-41) and Nationals (81-52), as well as potentially the red-hot Cubs (73-60) would fit the "powerhouse" label. The Astros have gotten where they are almost entirely by a first-rate offense which leads the majors virtually every offensive category, including wOBA (.351), wRC+ (123), and good old fashioned runs scored (735). MVP frontrunner Jose Altuve (.355/.414/.565) is backed up by All Stars Carlos Correa (.320/.400/.566) and George Springer (.290/.368/.540), as well as big bats Alex Bregman (.287/.360/.483), Yulieski Gurriel (.293/.324/.476), and Josh Reddick (.303/.347/.467), among others. What has kept them from being the AL's Dodgers, however, has been pitching.
Dallas Keuchel (11-3, 2.91 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) has been the ace at the front of the Houston rotation, but Lance McCullers (7-3, 3.92 ERA), Charlie Morton (10-6, 3.88), Mike Fiers (8-9, 4.55), and Collin McHugh (2-2, 3.25) have been more good than great behind him. With the addition of former Cy Young Justin Verlander, the team is now ready for a World Series run. In my opinion, he's the one piece this team needed to get over the hump into the "elite" category. Verlander may not be the same pitcher he was in his prime, but the 34 year old is in fact still better than people give him credit for. He had a huge bounce-back season in 2016 (16-9, 3.04 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 254/57 K/BB), one that very nearly netted him a second AL Cy Young Award. Though he put up pretty uninspiring numbers in his first 17 starts (5-5, 4.96 ERA, 1.52 WHIP), he's gotten back to his 2016 form over his last 11, going 5-3 with a 2.31 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. He's gone at least six innings and allowed two runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts, and Astros fans should be thrilled to have him. After this season, he still has two years and $56 million left on his contract, with a $22 million vesting option for the 2020 season if he finishes in the top five of the Cy Young voting in 2019. With what the city of Houston has gone through over the past week, I'll be rooting for the Astros until they (hopefully) square off against the Nationals in the World Series.

The Tigers rebuild really got a boost with this trade, as they picked up three quality prospects for their ace. Right hander Franklin Perez is both the youngest and the closest to the big leagues, reaching AA this season at the age of 19. The 6'3" Venezuelan began the season at High Class A Buies Creek despite his young age, yet he still dominated, going 4-2 with a 2.98 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP, striking out 53 and walking 16 in 54.1 innings. Promoted to AA Corpus Christi, he has continued to pitch well against older competition, going 2-1 with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP, striking out 25 and walking 11 in 32 innings. He has a moving low to mid 90's fastball and a plus curveball, as well as a slider and a changeup that will round out a starter's arsenal. He immediately supplants 2016 draftee Matt Manning (or 2017 draftee Alex Faedo, depending on who you ask) as the Tigers' top prospect, bringing ace potential with a relatively high floor. Catcher Jake Rogers was drafted in the third round out of Tulane in 2016 as a glove-first catcher, showing a weak bat in his pro debut in 2016 (.233/.341/.377 in Short Season ball and Class A), exactly as expected. However, he seems to have turned a switch in 2017, with his bat beginning to catch up to his big league-caliber glove. Starting at Class A Quad Cities, he slashed .255/.336/.520 over 27 games, earning a promotion to High Class A Buies Creek. There, over 83 games, he slashed .265/.357/.457 and even stole 13 bases, bringing his season's home run total to 18 and establishing himself as a legitimate prospect, not just a potential back-up. The 22 year old still hasn't hit quite enough to be considered a future Yadier Molina, but his stock is up and he could be a starting catcher in the major leagues. Lastly, we have Daz Cameron, the 20 year old who came to the Astros as a competitive balance pick in 2015 out of high school in Georgia, though he could have been a top 20 pick if it weren't for signability. Mike Cameron's son struggled in his first two seasons of pro ball and missed time to a hand injury, but he seems to have gotten back on track at Class A Quad Cities this year. Over 120 games, he is slashing .271/.349/.466 with 14 home runs and 32 stolen bases, showing the kind of five tool potential that netted him a $4 million signing bonus. Though he has the tools, he still needs to cut back on his 21.1% strikeout rate if he wants to reach his potential.

Angels Acquire Justin Upton, Brandon Phillips

Angels Acquire: Justin Upton (28 HR, 94 RBI, .279 AVG, 10 SB, 137 wRC+, Age 30)
Cash considerations

Tigers Acquire: Grayson Long (8-8, 2.69 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 125/42 K/BB at High Class A and AA, Age 23)
Future considerations

Angels Acquire: Brandon Phillips (11 HR, 52 RBI, .291 AVG, 10 SB, 96 wRC+, Age 36)
Cash considerations

Braves Acquire: Tony Sanchez (4 HR, 40 RBI, .272 AVG, 1 SB, 94 wRC+ at AAA, Age 29)

The Angels swung two trades on the last day to acquire players who could be eligible for the postseason, acquiring a power bat to slot behind Mike Trout and a second baseman to play across from dark horse MVP candidate Andrelton Simmons. With the American League Wild Card races still wide, wide open entering the season's final month, the Angels find themselves at 69-65, just 1.5 games back of the Twins for the second Wild Card. Mike Trout (.327/.459/.667) has shouldered almost all of the Angels' offensive production this year, and by bringing in Justin Upton, not only do the Angels get to move the light-hitting Ben Revere (.261/.298/.336) to the bench, they get to add much needed protection behind Trout in the lineup. Perhaps he should be the one happiest about this trade, as he has walked in 23.6% of his plate appearances while pitchers look for other, more human batters to face. Now, teams may not be as thrilled about facing Upton with a runner on first as they were for an aging Albert Pujols (.232/.278/.387), so Trout should get more pitches to hit. Upton (.279/.362/.542) is quietly having a career year, posting a career high .542 slugging percentage despite playing in a pitchers' park. After 2017, he has four years and $88.5 million remaining on his contract, but he can opt out after the season if he chooses, which would make him a one month (plus potentially postseason) rental. Because of this possibility, the Upton trade was clearly a win-now move.

The Angels also picked up 16 year veteran Brandon Phillips as an upgrade over Cliff Pennington (.267/.328/.352) at second base. The 36 year old Phillips was having a pretty good season for his hometown Atlanta Braves, slashing .291/.329/.423 with adequate defense for a middle infielder in his mid-30's. Phillips will be a free agent after the season, so like (potentially) Upton, this is a one month rental plus the postseason. If he gets a big hit that helps the Angels sneak into the Wild Card, he'll have done his job for LA.

In return for Upton:
Going to Detroit, who is in the early stages of a rebuild, is AA pitcher Grayson Long, one of the lone bright spots in a still-dim Angels farm system. Long was drafted in the third round out of Texas A&M in 2015, and while he was limited to 84.2 innings over his first two pro seasons, he's had a breakthrough season in 2017. Starting with three starts at High Class A Inland Empire, he posted a 4.50 ERA and a 14/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 12 innings, which is a credible performance for the very hitter-friendly California League. Quickly promoted to AA Mobile, he's been one of the best starters in the Southern League, going 8-6 with a 2.52 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP, striking out 111 and walking 38 in 121.2 innings. He'll probably start next season in AAA, and could easily be called up with a few strong performances and the right opening in the Detroit pitching staff. In fact, with rosters expanding now that we're in September, he could find himself in Detroit this year if they're feeling aggressive with their new arm. Right now, the 23 year old projects pretty easily as a solid back-end starter, one who could fall back on relief it that doesn't work out. He relies more on pitchability than pure stuff, though his low 90's fastball does have good movement and he's shown flashes of a pretty good slider.

In return for Phillips:
The Angels only acquired one month of a 36 year old second baseman, so the return to Atlanta will be understandably small. AAA catcher Tony Sanchez has played in the majors before, appearing in 51 games for the Pirates from 2013-2015 and slashing .259/.303/.378 with four home runs. However, the former fourth overall pick out of Boston College has never lived up to expectations and almost certainly never will, but he does provide catching depth for Atlanta. He will likely see time with the major league club in September, having slashed .272/.355/.374 with four home runs in the admittedly hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League this year. With Tyler Flowers just going on the DL, Kurt Suzuki has moved into a bigger role and David Freitas was just called up to be his back-up. With rosters expanding, it makes perfect sense to bring Sanchez along with him.