The Cubs employed an interesting strategy here, drafting a ton of post-hype prospects that all had the potential to go much higher had their 2023 seasons gone differently, whether that be due to injury or poor performance. As such, it's a class full of bounce-back candidates that have been in the prospect spotlight before. Otherwise, this is a position player-heavy class that also pulled in a trio of high upside prep bats for reasonable signing bonuses. Of course, the show is owned by Matt Shaw, whose $4.85 million signing bonus was more than triple what anybody else in the Cubs' class got.
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Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.
1-13: SS Matt Shaw, Maryland {video}
Slot value: $4.85 million. Signing bonus: $4.85 million.
My rank: #19. MLB Pipeline: #16. Baseball America: #13. Prospects Live: #23.
Sometimes, players slip down your draft board a little bit and Matt Shaw ended up at #19 on mine, though in hindsight I regret not putting him a few slots higher. Shaw is an excellent all around player. He has been a serious contributor for three years now at Maryland, and he put together his best season yet in 2023 by slashing .341/.445/.697 with 24 home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 42/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. And if you don't buy those numbers because Maryland plays in an extreme hitters' park and the Big Ten has a bit lower competition than other major conferences, he also raked last summer in the elite Cape Cod League to the tune of a .348/.434/.571 slash line and six home runs in 44 games, earning the league's MVP award. So long story short, Shaw can play. He sets up from a closed off stance that reminds me a bit of Giancarlo Stanton (though he's seven inches shorter), but extends his arms well with excellent feel for the barrel that helps him drive the ball with authority to all fields. Though he's just 5'11", that helps him show sneaky above average power that he taps consistently in games and against good pitching. He'll expand the zone a bit, but does adjust well and walked more than he struck out in 2023, with strong bat to ball skills helping to limit his swing and miss. He describes himself as a guess hitter, but given his performance on the Cape, it's safe to say he's a very effective guesser. Overall, it's an above average hit tool with above average power, which you'll take every time. The Western Massachusetts native is also a solid defender – he probably won't stick at shortstop, but he's athletic enough with plenty of speed to handle second base and his bat will profile plenty well there. Shaw brings a twitchy, athletic physical profile from that smaller frame with high baseball IQ and a long track record of performance that makes him a fairly safe bet to be a long-term contributor, even if he lacks a plus tool. The Cubs have pushed him aggressively and he has lived up to the challenge so far, slashing .382/.427/.647 with five home runs and a 14/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games between the Arizona Complex League, High A South Bend, and AA Tennessee.
2C-68: RHP Jaxon Wiggins, Arkansas {video}
Slot value: $1.1 million. Signing bonus: $1.4 million ($300,500 above slot value).
My rank: #124. MLB Pipeline: #103. Baseball America: #85. Prospects Live: #219.
Jaxon Wiggins had serious helium this fall and was trending towards the top two rounds, but he went down with Tommy John surgery right before the season started and never got the chance to build his stock. While national outlets and my rankings backed off him, the Cubs never did and they gave him close to the slot value for the #58 pick to sign here at #68. If any team loves hard throwing college arms, it's the Cubs, so Wiggins certainly fits their draft tendency. He never quite found consistency at Arkansas, posting a 6.17 ERA and a 110/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 innings over his two seasons there, but was picked by many as a breakout candidate in 2023 before his injury. Wiggins has a ton of arm strength, sitting comfortably in the mid 90's with his fastball, touching triple digits in short stints, and getting explosive riding life at times making it a plus-plus pitch at its best. His changeup is his best secondary pitch, flashing above average at its best paying very well off his fastball, while his slider is fringy and needs work. The stuff can be inconsistent, with the fastball straightening out at times and the changeup not always getting that fade that he wants. He also hasn't proven his command quite yet, as it was below average in the past potentially stemming from having to make up a lot of ground late in his overhand delivery. He smoothed it out and was looking better in that regard this past fall, and the Cubs are buying into those improvements. Standing 6'6", Wiggins is extremely projectable and has a ton of upside between his arm strength and the movement he flashes at his best. If he can hold his command together, find a reliable breaking ball, and get more consistent with his fastball and changeup movement, he has a chance to be a real impact starter.
3-81: SS Josh Rivera, Florida {video}
Slot value: $872,400. Signing bonus: $725,000 ($147,400 below slot value).
My rank: #79. MLB Pipeline: #87. Baseball America: #60. Prospects Live: #103.
Virtually every major public board ranked Josh Rivera ahead of Jaxon Wiggins, but he signed for just about half the money here as a senior sign and personally I love the pick. Rivera was a well known name as a prep at the famed IMG Academy, but he made it to campus at Florida and turned in three unremarkable seasons to fall to the fringes of draft conversations. Opting to return for his senior season, he finally put it all together and slashed .348/.447/.617 with 19 home runs and a 35/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 games, bringing his draft stock roaring back to higher than it had ever been before. Rivera may be set to turn 23 in October, but he's plenty advanced so the age is no concern for me or most evaluators. He employs a keen eye at the plate and controls the strike zone very well, taking professional at bats through the grind of SEC play and adjusting like he's been there before. His ability to choose good pitches combined with his strong innate feel for the barrel allow him to take big right handed swings and produce average power, which he began tapping consistently in games by hitting more home runs in 70 games in 2023 (19) than he did in 134 games over his first three seasons (16). He is also a very advanced defender with tremendous feel for the infield, though his pure athleticism may limit him to second or third base in the long run once he gets pushed off shortstop by a springier, more explosive defender. This may be more of a utility profile than an every day profile, but now that he's figured everything out, he's a high probability big leaguer that could move very quickly and does have a shot to hit near the bottom of an MLB lineup every day. Moving quickly already, he's slashing .253/.292/.422 with two home runs and a 21/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 games between the Arizona Complex League and High A South Bend.
4-113: RHP Will Sanders, South Carolina {video}
Slot value: $591,800. Signing bonus: $600,000 ($8,200 above slot value).
My rank: #87. MLB Pipeline: #135. Baseball America: #65. Prospects Live: #73.
Will Sanders is another interesting prospect who has seen his stock bounce around a bit. He was excellent over his first two seasons at South Carolina and established himself as a potential first round pick according to some evaluators, but took a bit of a step back in 2023 with a 5.46 ERA and a 77/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 62.2 innings. He sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 98 at peak, though the fastball gets straight from a high release point and got hit much more than its velocity would dictate. He stands out for his feel for his secondary stuff, with a late biting slider that flashes plus at best and a nice curve that looks like it could be an above average pitch in its own right when he comes through it. He rounds out his arsenal with an above average changeup, giving him the deep, big league arsenal teams look for. The 6'6" righty repeats his delivery and pounds the strike zone, though he wasn't as fine with his locations in 2023 which led to him getting hit over the plate. If the Cubs can help him find ways to create more deception with his fastball and get a little more consistent with his offspeed stuff, he has mid-rotation upside. I never really bought into the first round hype he got coming into the season, but I'm certainly intrigued here in the fourth round and I think the Cubs may have found very nice value.
5-149: C Michael Carico, Davidson {video}
Slot value: $416,900. Signing bonus: $400,000.
My rank: #113. MLB Pipeline: #110. Baseball America: #127. Prospects Live: #80.
This is a pretty unique profile right here. Michael Carico was not much of a prospect at all as recently as the winter of 2021-2022, but he broke out for an unbelievable sophomore campaign that spring by slashing .406/.559/.843 with 21 home runs over 54 games. He came in 2023 with huge expectations, but missed most of the season with a wrist injury and slashed .350/.514/.688 with seven home runs and a 14/17 strikeout to walk ratio over just 21 games. If Carico has one outlier trait, it's his plate discipline. He never, ever chases, in fact running the lowest chase rate of any college hitter on my draft board at just 13%. That's elite. When he does swing, he rarely misses and finds the barrel with almost alarming consistency, at least if you're the other team it's alarming. There are questions about how that approach will play up against more advanced pitchers that attack the zone with higher level stuff, as Carico played in the more middling Atlantic 10 Conference, but there's not much more he could have done to this point against the competition he had. The raw power was well below average in 2023 around that wrist injury, but with 28 home runs and 27 doubles in just 75 games the past two seasons, he's certainly maximized that modest raw power into above average game power. That's another area that is a question mark heading into pro ball, where he'll switch to wood bats and his already modest exit velocities could suffer more. Carico is a solid athlete that needs more refinement if he wants to stick behind the plate, but the quickness and catcher's frame are there. It's really hard to know what to make of the offensive profile given his injury, weaker competition, and low exit velocities, but his elite approach and ability to maximize his power give him every shot to make it work. If that profile translates to pro ball, he won't necessarily need to stick behind the plate to be an impact bat at the major league level, but if he stumbles at all in his offensive development, being able to go back and handle the catcher's position would be really helpful as he ascends the ranks. To boot, the North Carolina native is very young for a college junior and didn't turn 21 until almost two months after the draft. So far, he's slashing .188/.409/.375 with one home run and an even 4/4 strikeout to walk ratio over seven games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Myrtle Beach.
6-176: OF Alfonsin Rosario, P27 Academy [SC] {video}
Slot value: $325,600. Signing bonus: $325,600.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #241. Prospects Live: #318.
The Cubs went for upside here in the sixth round, signing Alfonsin Rosario away from a Chipola commitment for slot value. Rosario is another big, 6'6" slugger that makes those around him take notice when he steps on the field. He has a big, powerful right handed swing that can produce impressive exit velocities, though his approach is raw and will need to be cleaned up. He chases frequently and can get frozen by good breaking balls in the zone, and his big swing does lead to swing and miss. Still, the size and huge bat speed are tantalizing. Rosario also shows off a howitzer for an arm in the outfield, easily reaching third base on a line from right field and profiling as plus-plus in that regard, though he can work on accuracy. The Cubs will need to be patient with the star youngster, who is a bit old for a high school senior (turned 19 in June) after transferring to school in the United States from his home in the Dominican Republic. So far, he's slashing .250/.364/.286 with an 8/4 strikeout to walk ratio over nine games in the Arizona Complex League.
7-206: SS Yahil Melendez, B You Academy [PR] {video}
Slot value: $254,500. Signing bonus: $400,000 ($145,500 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
Yahil Melendez was not ranked on any major public boards, but the Cubs liked what they saw and gave him fifth round money here in the seventh round to sign away from a Rice commitment. Only set to turn 18 almost two months after the draft, he's extremely young for the class and at 6'3", 165 pounds, he's extremely projectable as well. It's a long term play where the Cubs can get him into their player development system early and shape the kind of player he can become. Melendez has a smooth left handed swing that promises to add significant power as he fills out, and at present he makes plenty of all fields contact. He's got some range at shortstop and a strong arm to boot, though he has a slower arm stroke and will need to tighten that up in order to stick at the premium position. He's more than fourteen months younger than Alfonsin Rosario and like Rosario, he'll require some patience. He's slashing .237/.256/.342 with a 16/1 strikeout to walk ratio over ten games in the Arizona Complex League.
11-326: OF Zyhir Hope, Colonial Forge HS [VA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $400,000 ($250,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #276. Prospects Live: #137.
The Cubs went for more upside here in the eleventh round, giving Zyhir Hope the same fifth round-caliber signing bonus that Yahil Melendez got. Hope has a quick bat from the left side, shooting line drives around the field with some sneaky power to his pull side when he turns on it. The approach can get raw and he hasn't shown particularly well in his limited looks against more advanced pitching, but the Cubs are willing to be patient and see if they can bring the whole package together over time. Hope is a plus-plus runner that will wreak havoc on the bases, so he has a shot to play center field as well. Throw in an above average arm that can get into the low 90's on the mound, and you've got a pretty exciting all around talent. The early returns are strong, as Hope is slashing .286/.419/.543 with three home runs and a 13/8 strikeout to walk ratio through eleven games in the Arizona Complex League.
12-356: 2B Carter Trice, North Carolina State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: #207. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #249. Prospects Live: unranked.
Carter Trice gives the Cubs an interesting prospect with a lot of upside who couldn't quite put it together this year. He began his college career at Old Dominion, where he hit .324/.411/.620 with 31 home runs over two seasons, then transferred to NC State as one of the better incoming transfers to the ACC. However, he never really found his footing with the Wolfpack and lost his starting spot during the season, finishing with a .248/.348/.479 line, six home runs, and a 34/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games. The Cubs are buying low here, hoping he can recapture his former greatness. Just 5'11", Trice is a twitchy athlete with an explosive right handed swing, naturally getting great leverage on the ball to help tap above average power when he connects. He's an aggressive hitter that swung and missed at a high clip even at ODU, and that whiff tendency finally caught up to him at NC State where he ran a strikeout rate over 25%. At this point, his ability to handle advanced pitching is a real question mark, but the upside is great if he can. Defensively, the Richmond-area native's above average speed helps him profile well at all three outfield positions, with the chance to play center field that would really help his profile. It's a bit boom or bust, but if he booms, Trice could become a low average, power hitting outfielder in Chicago, and his age is a bonus as he didn't turn 21 until more than a month after the draft. So far, he's slashing .296/.406/.556 with one home run and an 11/5 strikeout to walk ratio over ten games in the Arizona Complex League but has not yet earned the call to full season ball.
18-536: 3B Brian Kalmer, Gonzaga {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $50,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #315. Prospects Live: unranked.
Okay, I'm cheating a little bit with this one because even though this writeup is supposed to be a draft review, I know Brian Kalmer is off to a hot start in the Cubs' organization. Kalmer began his career at Arizona State, but played just 19 games over two seasons and transferred to Wabash Valley JC in southeastern Illinois, not far from Evansville, Indiana. The move proved to be a huge success as he earned NJCAA Division I Player of the Year honors by slashing .421/.486/.736 with 20 home runs in 68 games, then transferred to Gonzaga where he continued to rake to the tune of a .358/.454/.682 line, 15 home runs, and a 56/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games. He's a big, lumbering right handed hitter with above average power based more on pure strength than explosiveness, and with 35 home runs over the past two seasons, he has really begun to tap it in games. He does come with swing and miss concerns, striking out in 23.3% of his plate appearances this past spring, though he has become a more selective hitter as he's developed. Defensively, he'll probably move to first base in the long term, which will put a lot of pressure on his bat. Already 23 years old, he'll move quickly and could be a platoon bat/pinch hitter in the near future. As I mentioned, he's off to a hot start in the Cubs' system, slashing .347/.418/.632 with seven home runs and a 25/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Myrtle Beach.
20-596: 3B Drew Bowser, Stanford {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: #203. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #231. Prospects Live: #389.
Drew Bowser's profile certainly has holes, but this is a really nice find at the end of the draft. He was a famous high school prospect at Harvard-Westlake HS in Los Angeles, where he was teammates with current Cubs prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong. While PCA was a first round pick in the 2020 draft, Bowser priced himself out and went unselected as he was set on attending Stanford. He made an immediate impact on campus, slashing .302/.361/.487 as a true freshman in 2021, but his batting average and on-base percentage dropped each year and he finished with just a .270/.342/.512 line, 14 home runs, and an 81/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games in 2023. Bowser has massive raw power from the right side, the product of a strong 6'4" frame and the ability to fling the barrel through the zone with ease. However, he has struggled against higher level pitching (career .181/.278/.234 hitter on the Cape) and struck out at a monstrous 29.8% rate in 2023, with an aggressive approach and a swoopy swing that cause plenty of whiffs both inside and outside the zone. Bowser is a highly intelligent player that made the transition from high school to college ball seamlessly a couple years ago (and only struck out 17.4% of the time in the process), so the Cubs believe that potential is in him and you don't find his kind of raw power every day. Bowser also has plenty of arm to play third base, but his footwork and glovework aren't all that quick or smooth and he'll have to work hard to remain at that position and avoid a fate at first base, where pressure will mount on his bat to return. So far, he is slashing .295/.367/.386 with a 21/5 strikeout to walk ratio through 13 games in the Arizona Complex League.
