Showing posts with label Eli Willits. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Eli Willits. Show all posts

Friday, December 12, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Washington Nationals

Full list of draftees

The Nationals picked first overall for the first time since taking Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper in back to back drafts in 2009 and 2010, and they did so more or less on the fly after firing General Manager Mike Rizzo shortly before the draft. In Mike DeBartolo's sole draft at the helm, he continued Rizzo's strategy of pouring money into the first several picks before paying pennies to the handful in the back half of day two. In fact, Washington gave $85,000 combined to their five picks from rounds six through ten after giving out five straight bonuses of at least $2 million to start the draft. Preps were the early focus here, with four high schoolers receiving a combined $15.2 million at the top of the draft. Interestingly, DeBartolo heavily favored power bats, grabbing the all time home run leaders at both Mississippi State (Hunter Hines, 70) and Oregon (Jacob Walsh, 59) as well three more guys who came close South Carolina's Ethan Petry (54), Wright State's Boston Smith (51), and Butler's Jack Moroknek (31). Interestingly, Washington also drafted four hulking first basemen in Petry (6'4", 235 pounds), Hines (6'3", 210), Walsh (6'4", 225), and Juan Cruz (6'5", 240), They can't all play, so whoever provides the most thump will be the one to lift himself up to the majors.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-1: SS Eli Willits, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS [OK]
Slot value: $11.08 million. Signing bonus: $8.2 million ($2.88 million below slot value).
My rank: #2. MLB Pipeline: #5. Baseball America: #3.
With their first pick, the Nationals went all-in on a young shortstop from a small town in Oklahoma, and they got him at a big discount. Eli Willits' $8.2 million signing bonus, while the third largest in the class behind Ethan Holliday ($9M, Rockies) and Kade Anderson ($8.8M, Mariners), represented just over the value of the #5 pick and netted the Nationals nearly $3 million in savings, the largest under slot bonus of the entire draft. Willits is a stud and has a chance to grow into a star. The son of former Angels outfielder Reggie Willits, Eli brings the mature feel for the game you'd expect from a coach's son at an extremely young age. Having reclassified up into the 2025 class, he was the age of a high school junior and anywhere from six months to a year and a half younger than the rest of his high school graduating class. Still, he can play with the best of them. He is a switch hitter who repeats a simple operation in the box from both sides of the plate, enabling him to execute his attack plan as consistently as anybody at that age. His accurate barrel shoots line drives around the field and has constantly performed not just against elite competition on the showcase circuit, but against much older elite competition on the showcase circuit. The innate confidence in the box at his age is uncanny. For now, his power plays closer to fringy as he focuses on line drives and hitting for average, but again, he is just seventeen years old (still, as I write this nearly five months after the draft) and has plenty of room and time to grow into his 6'1" frame. The Nationals will move him at his pace, allowing him to grow into his body and learn to elevate the ball more as the power comes. That should help him project for 15-20 home runs per season, perhaps more if he shifts his approach to become power conscious, but the real draw is that he could flirt with .400 on-base percentages at the big league level. With his above average speed, he has a classic leadoff profile with the power to fill that role in today's modern game. Willits plays shortstop and should stick there, with a polished glove and above average arm that help him steadily make all of the plays that come his way. There are four above average or better tools here combined with the baseball IQ to make all of it play up, and the power is coming too. The kid from tiny Fort Cobb, Oklahoma (population 518, some sixty miles southwest of Oklahoma City) should grow into a steady leader that will pace the Nationals for years to come.

2-49: OF Ethan Petry, South Carolina
Slot value: $1.98 million. Signing bonus: $2.09 million ($105,800 above slot value).
My rank: #64. MLB Pipeline: #59. Baseball America: #36.
With millions in potential over slot money to play around with, the Nationals dipped just a little into that pot to bring in one of the best college sluggers of the past couple seasons. Ethan Petry garnered significant draft interest at Cypress Creek High School in the Tampa suburbs, but made it to campus at South Carolina where you could say things went pretty well. He blasted five home runs in his first seven games as a Gamecock and finished his freshman year with 23 while hitting .376/.471/.733 across 63 games and being named Perfect Game's National Freshman of the Year. While he couldn't quite match that success in 2024, he still hit 21 home runs and put up a .471 on-base percentage, then shoulder problems ended his 2025 season early as he finished his South Carolina career with 54 home runs and an impressive .336/.462/.661 slash line over 168 games. Listed at 6'4" and 235 pounds, Petry looks every bit of the slugger he is. Using a no-nonsense operation in the box, he just chucks the barrel at the baseball and sends it soaring, effortlessly showing plus-plus power with elite exit velocities to back up his home run totals. He gets the ball in the air consistently and always seems to be finding the barrel, making for one of the more daunting at bats in the country for pitchers. For that reason, Petry has rarely seen good pitches to hit especially over the last two seasons, helping him run high walk rates despite a propensity to chase. The bat to ball is average, so if he can stay in the strike zone more consistently (which should be easier as pro pitchers give him more to hit), he has a chance to hit for decent averages and strong on-base percentages with all those home runs. In fact, he demolished Cape Cod League pitching in 2024 to the tune of a .360/.480/.760 slash line with 11 home runs in 31 games, so between the Cape and the SEC he is no stranger to elite pitching. Though he was drafted as an outfielder, Petry is a well below average athlete who doesn't run much and will be limited to first base at best, if not to DH later in his career. There is something of a Pete Alonso comp here if he can put it all together and keep the strikeouts down.

3-80: RHP Landon Harmon, East Union HS [MS]
Slot value: $1.01 million. Signing bonus: $2.5 million ($1.49 million above slot value).
My rank: #41. MLB Pipeline: #48. Baseball America: #65.
Two years ago, the Nationals dropped a massive bonus on prep arm Travis Sykora in the third round, which has worked out very well so far. They did it again here with savings from Eli Willits, handing Landon Harmon roughly the value of the #39 pick to sign here at #80 rather than attend Mississippi State. The upside here is hard to match, especially in the third round. This is a profile led by an electric fastball, one that sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 99 at peak with cutting action. While the shape is fairly ordinary, he does come from a low release that puts flat plane on the pitch and helps it zip over bats. He has yet to find much consistency with his breaking stuff, though his slider has flashed plus at its best with nasty late snap and could become a true putaway weapon as he hones his feel for the pitch. His curveball can get slurvy but has the makings of an average pitch. Similarly, his changeup has shown nice run at times, but he can drop his arm and give hitters a better look. Above all, the 6'5" righty is an explosive athlete with one of the more impressive deliveries in the prep class. He moves extremely well on the mound with an elastic delivery that efficiently generates power and will be very conducive to even further strength gains as he fills out that extremely projectable frame. The command is not yet pinpoint, but he stays around the zone pretty well considering how electric his arm is, and he should get to average command as he works up. While far from a finished product, Harmon has exceptional building blocks to develop into a frontline starter at the big league level. The Nationals will move him slowly, fine tuning his offspeed stuff and helping him put on weight to potentially start touching triple digits. Like Willits, he comes from a small town in northeastern Mississippi and should rocket forward in the Nationals' system, much like Sykora.

4-111: RHP Miguel Sime Jr., Poly Prep HS [NY]
Slot value: $687,800. Signing bonus: $2 million ($1.31 million above slot value).
My rank: #92. MLB Pipeline: #86. Baseball America: #88.
With the other half of their savings from Eli Willits, Washington roped in an arm just as electric as Landon Harmon. A Queens native coming from the Brooklyn prep ranks, Miguel Sime completely shut down New York City high school pitching to nearly a comical degree with his blazing fastball. Coming in even harder than Harmon's, it sits mid to upper 90's and set an MLB Draft League record by touching 101 miles per hour. With its riding action, it comes in like a rocket ship and could be an 80 grade pitch when all is said and done. For now, as with Harmon, it's the fastball that carries the profile. His breaking ball is still searching for its identity working between slider and curveball shape, flashing plus at its best with hard bite down but frequently backing up into a fringy offering. He has shown some aptitude for a fading changeup, and while it will need significant refinement, he does have a nice foundation. The 6'4" righty is already extremely physical and clocks in at 235 pounds as an eighteen year old, so while he may lack much projection at this point, the arm strength is already off the charts. Washington will work to help him streamline a delivery that features some effort and head whack and long arm action in the back, which often impacts his command especially inside and outside. There is of course significant reliever risk considering the command and his lack of consistent secondary pitches, but the upside is tremendous as a triple digit flamethrower who has shown flashes of quality secondary stuff. The Nationals will move him slowly and work on one thing at a time as he climbs the rungs. Previously committed to LSU, his $2 million signing bonus roughly fit in with the slot value for Ethan Petry's #49 pick.

5-142: SS Coy James, Davie County HS [NC]
Slot value: $508,900. Signing bonus: $2.5 million ($1.99 million above slot value).
My rank: #69. MLB Pipeline: #94. Baseball America: #49.
The over slot bonuses keep on flowing, and this time Washington went back to the prep shortstop demographic for Coy James. To pry him away from Ole Miss, they hit him with the same $2.5 million signing bonus they gave third rounder Landon Harmon, close to the value of the #39 pick and roughly five times the slot value for the #142 pick. James, for whatever reason, has driven a wide discrepancy in opinions over the course of the draft cycle. He's fairly raw, but the tools are there. The North Carolina native has strong bat to ball that enables him to get to balls all over and outside the zone, shooting line drives with authority to all fields. While he's not huge at a pretty standard 6', 185 pounds, James packs plenty of strength into his skinnier frame to show average power when he stays within himself, with a tight right handed swing that wastes little movement. He can also let loose and turn on the ball for above average power if he chooses to, though he is borrowing from his contact ability when he does that. James does have a relatively aggressive approach at the plate that causes his offensive profile to play down at times, which was the case last summer on the showcase circuit after standing out as a potential first rounder early in his high school career. At this point, there are many directions he could develop in offensively, from an aggressive power-over-hit guy who can crush 20+ home runs per season with low on-base percentages to more of a balanced profile with 10-15 home runs per season and higher batting averages. That would seem to be Jonathan Schoop or Danny Espinosa (offensively) at one end or perhaps a Chris Taylor/Starlin Castro deal on the other. Defensively, opinions are split on James as well. Washington drafted him as a shortstop, though not all scouts agree that he has the quickness to stick at that key position depending on the day they saw him. He has good hands in the dirt and enough arm to make the left side of the infield work, though the profile may fit better at second or third base especially when sharing a draft class with Eli Willits. There are some who like him better in the outfield, where he may end up in a corner. To me, the most likely outcome is that of a bat-first second baseman who relies on power and contact to drive an offensive profile that won't feature a ton of walks.

6-171: C Boston Smith, Wright State
Slot value: $386,700. Signing bonus: $50,000 ($336,700 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Just about out of bonus pool money, it came time to save and for Washington that began with sixth rounder Boston Smith. Above all else, power is the name of the game here. He has clubbed 45 home runs in 113 games over the past two seasons at Wright State, including smashing the single season Wright State and Horizon League records with 26 home runs in 2025, a total that tied Reds fourth rounder Mason Neville (Oregon) for the NCAA Division I lead. In all, he hit .332/.500/.774 as he led the Raiders to a regional appearance in Nashville. Unsurprisingly, Smith has plus power that plays up in games because he gets on plane with the ball early and builds his swing to launch the ball to the pull side. He primarily works in the air to right field and shoots line drives up the middle, an approach that played extremely well in the Horizon League against admittedly mediocre pitching. A very disciplined hitter, he walked over 20% of the time in 2025 and carried that into the MLB Draft League, where he hit .226/.391/.434 with an 18.8% walk rate with wood bats. The pure bat to ball is below average and pro pitchers will attack Smith inside the strike zone, where he'll have to keep making quality contact as he faces better and better stuff. That will be the primary key in his development. In a really tough early season eleven game stretch of games against Auburn, Miami, Ole Miss, and NC State, he hit .270/.413/.351 with just one home run and a 32.6% strikeout rate. Behind the plate, the Dayton-area product showcases a strong arm that threw out nine of 24 attempted stolen bases in the Draft League. While he was exclusively a catcher for the Raiders this spring, he has seen time all over the field including at shortstop and stole sixteen bases for them this year. In all, Smith brings power, patience, and defensive versatility to the team, but as a senior sign who has not shown a mastery of the all important in-zone contact metric against better pitching, he'll need to clean that aspect of his game up quickly.

10-291: 1B Hunter Hines, Mississippi State
Slot value: $193,800. Signing bonus: $5,000 ($188,800 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Hunter Hines is a case study in how draft stock can fluctuate. He was not exactly the centerpiece of Mississippi State's 2021 recruiting class, but he burst onto the scene with a huge freshman year in 2022 in which he slashed .300/.393/.600 with 16 home runs for the Rebels, earning Freshman All-American honors from some outlets and making a name for himself in the SEC practically overnight. He blasted 22 more home runs in 2023 and was named First Team All-SEC as a sophomore, then entered his junior season as a potential top-five rounds pick. He hit 16 more home runs, but swing and miss caught up to him and he went undrafted despite ranking well on some boards. Hitting exactly 16 home runs for the third time in four years in 2025, Hines failed to rebuild his draft stock and signed with the Nationals for just $5,000 as a senior sign. In the end, he ended up breaking Rafael Palmeiro's forty year old Mississippi State home run record and finished with 70 bombs and 221 RBI in 228 games. Obviously, the calling card is power. Listed at 6'3", 210 pounds, he looks every bit of it and clobbers baseballs with great force, showing plus power that he has gotten to both in SEC games and with wood bats in the Cape Cod League, where his thirteen regular season home runs in 2023 set the league's single season record. He's a pull hitter that loves to launch the ball in the air, an approach that has worked well for him so far but may start to crack in pro ball. Hines is an aggressive hitter who, despite being a premier power threat and Mississippi State's all time home run record, holds a modest 11.7% career walk rate that admittedly reached a career-high 13.2% in 2025. Still, that is primarily a factor of pitchers not giving him much to hit rather than patience on his part. Hines also has below average bat to ball and has struck out in over a quarter of his at bats over his four years, though again he had modest improvement to 24% in 2025. The Jackson-area native will need significant polish all around his hit tool if he wants to tap that power in pro ball, furthering the gains he's made with discipline outside the zone while making more contact in the zone. He has enough power that he should be able to employ a more contact-oriented approach while still bringing thump, but it's a long way to go for a senior sign who turned 23 at the start of this offseason. He's also a non-athlete who will be limited to first base and potentially DH down the line, a position he'll have to fight off against Ethan Petry and Jacob Walsh in this draft class as well as many others in the Nationals' system. If Hines can clean up his hit tool, he has a chance to be a platoon bat in the mold of Matt Adams at his best.

11-321: OF Jack Moroknek, Butler
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($50,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #396.
You don't see many 22 year olds sign above slot value, but Jack Moroknek has only played two years of college ball and had a transfer commitment to Texas in hand to push up his price. He did not appear in a college game until 2024, when he was already nearly 21 years old, but in the last two seasons he has demolished Big East pitching to the tune of 31 home runs and a .350/.427/.646 slash line over 109 games. He started off the 2025 season red hot, hitting .494/.537/1.037 with a dozen home runs through his first 21 games, and while he couldn't quite maintain that pace, the impression had been made. Moroknek has plus-plus raw power from a violent left handed operation in which he brute forces baseballs into the atmosphere. While power is certainly the calling card, the bat to ball is sneaky here. He is a very aggressive hitter who would not allow Big East pitchers to pitch around him, attacking balls in the shadow zone just outside the strike zone and doing so with success. Despite the chase-heavy approach, he ran a moderate 16.2% strikeout rate and showed the ability to get to balls all around the plate. He was, unsurprisingly, at his best inside the strike zone where he rarely let a strike get by him, doing some of the best damage in the country when pitchers came into his wheelhouse. The Indianapolis-area native has a pull-heavy approach that features an exaggerated step in the bucket, so while it has been no issue at all against Butler's relatively weak schedule, pro pitchers will be more apt to take advantage and draw him out of that wheelhouse. Moroknek's combination of power and bat to ball is nonetheless impressive and gives the new regime plenty to work with, so if he can shore up the approach a little bit, he could seriously outplay his draft position as an everyday lineup option. He has almost exclusively played the corners at Butler and figures to stay that way in pro ball, slotting into left or right field depending on where the Nationals need him.

12-351: LHP Ben Moore, Old Dominion
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #237. Baseball America: #243.
Round twelve saw the Nationals pull in a local kid from Frederick County, one who grew up less than ten miles away from current Nationals infielder Trey Lipscomb. A graduate of Linganore High School about nine miles east of Frederick, Ben Moore has had an up and down career at Old Dominion down in Virginia. Immediately a trusted reliever as a freshman, he was lights out as a sophomore in 2024 (2.68 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 39/11 K/BB) before intriguing scouts with a loud fall ahead of his junior season. A move to the rotation did not go as well as hoped as his ERA ballooned to 6.64 ERA, his WHIP to 1.66, his strikeout rate dropped from 27.7% to 19.1%, and his walk rate jumped from 7.8% to 10.4% in 2025. Still, Washington saw what he could do at his best and wants the talented lefty on their side. Moore sits in the low 90's as a starter and can reach back for 97 in short stints out of the bullpen, coming in with sinking action from a high slot. He works his above average slider around the zone well with nice finish, while his changeup is more of a third pitch. Moore has shown average command on his best days but has lost it on others, especially when trying to stretch out deeper into games, so it probably profiles as fringy right now. The 6'4" lefty is built like a big league starter and does not throw with a lot of effort, aiding his chances at starting, but he'll need to learn to repeat his delivery a bit better and his arm slot does have the tendency to wander, anywhere from straight over the top to low three quarters. While that can be something some amateur pitchers do in order to mess with hitters' sight lines (I'm guilty of it myself, having once finished off a save in a men's league game by dropping to submarine), you don't see it much in pro ball. If Moore can get more consistent with his command and bring his changeup along, he has a chance to be a back-end starter, or in the bullpen he could live in the mid 90's and let his sinker/slider combination go to work.

13-381: RHP Tucker Biven, Louisville
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #347.
Tucker Biven is a big arm to give the Nationals a buy-low opportunity. A three year contributor on the Louisville pitching staff, he has made 63 appearances (nine starts) during his time with the Cardinals and earned stints with the US Collegiate National Team and in the Cape Cod League. The stuff is absolutely there. His fastball sits low 90's as a starter and can touch 97 in short stints, coming in with plenty run and sink to avoid hard contact. He has a hard upper 80's slider that stands out more for its power than its movement, showing the tendency to back up at times but at others looking like a reliable weapon. He adds a curveball and changeup that he uses less, but with the way the ball runs out of his hand, the Nationals should be able to at least help bring the changeup along. The 6'1" righty is very physical and looks the part of a big league pitcher, and while he lacks projection, he should be durable enough to handle a full season in the majors. With a late arm and some effort in his delivery, Biven is more control over command, attacking hitters in the zone to stay ahead in the count rather than pinpointing his pitches to the corners. That led to a concerningly low 17.9% strikeout rate in 2025, often getting hit when he left pitches over the plate and lacking the command or quality offspeed stuff to get too many chases down out of the zone. To develop as a starter, the local Louisville-area native will need to get more consistent with his secondary stuff and deepen the arsenal overall, which in turn will help him miss more bats in the zone. Getting on time with his delivery and sharpening that command a touch would also go a long way. More likely, he looks like a sinker/slider reliever who can sit mid 90's in short stints and provide a quality bullpen arm for Washington.

15-441: 1B Jacob Walsh, Oregon
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Jacob Walsh gives the Nationals a third power hitting first baseman. After earning some Freshman All-American looks in 2022, he blasted sixteen, eighteen, and nineteen home runs over the past three seasons. He actually set Oregon's all time home run record halfway through his junior season, then played his senior season and finished with 59, nearly double Tanner Smith's previous record of 31. Additionally, he has improved as a hitter every season, bumping his slash line from .241/.302/.500 as a sophomore to .254/.348/.548 as a junior to .332/.435/.651 this year as a senior. Previously an extremely aggressive hitter, he has toned down his approach to simply moderately aggressive and bumped his walk rate from 7.8% as a freshman to 11.6% as a junior to 13.0% as a senior. Staying in the strike zone has helped him tremendously improve his contact rates, so his strikeout rate had a corresponding drop from 29.4% to 26.2% to 18.1%. That helps him improve from a 30 grade hit tool to more of a 40, which is playable with the power he possesses. Listed at 6'4", 225 pounds, Walsh generates tremendous torque with his left handed swing to lift and launch baseballs deep into the night, stinging line drives at equally impressive rates that might leave opposing first and second basemen getting set a few steps back out of self preservation. Even with his improvement, it's unlikely that Walsh possesses the approach and bat to ball to play every day in the big leagues at a position like first base where the offensive bar is very high, profiling more as a platoon bat that can torch right handed pitchers. I compared Hunter Hines to Matt Adams, and I think a very similar projection applies for Walsh. Unlike Hines and Ethan Petry, the other big swinging first basemen drafted earlier, Walsh is a fairly lithe defender around the bag and should be a net positive there. The Las Vegas native is a pretty good athlete for his size and stole eight bases in 2025, showing the defensive awareness to make numerous impressive plays along the first base wall and dugout during his time in Eugene. At first base, it's all about who provides the most impact in the lineup, but showing a slicker glove than most can only help.

16-471: LHP Levi Huesman, Vanderbilt
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
A second hometown lefty for this class, Levi Huesman brings a high prospect pedigree that is admittedly short on results. A native of Hanover, Virginia about half an hour north of Richmond, Huesman was the top prospect in the state while at Hanover High School but ultimately headed south to Coastal Carolina rather than go pro. While he quickly earned a prominent role on the Chanticleers pitching staff as a freshman, he proved far too hittable and struggled to a 9.36 ERA and transferred to Vanderbilt. In Nashville, he didn't see the mound much over his two years but improved significantly from his sophomore (6.00 ERA, 21.7% / 16.7% K/BB) to his junior (2.81 ERA, 29.9% / 6.0% K/BB) seasons. Huesman stood out for his flat low 90's fastball as a freshman, though at the time his lack of projection was noted as a minor concern. His velocity has largely remained the same three years later, topping out around 96 in short stints, and it has proven hittable when he falls behind in the count. His slider has become a real weapon, coming in with mid 80's velocity and hard, late sweep to miss a ton of bats, and he uses it liberally. He can also turn it over into a curveball in the mid to upper 70's, but the slider is clearly his bread and butter. As was the case three years ago, his changeup remains a fringier option. At this point, the 6' lefty looks like a full time bullpen option as he has neither started a game nor thrown more than two innings at a time since 2023, pitching just 28 innings combined over the last two seasons. Slight of stature, he'll instead be a slider-heavy lefty in the Nationals organization who can hopefully find more success with his flat fastball in a big league development program. Huesman throws from a low slot and has improved his command significantly during his time in college, so if those command gains hold, he could be a quality lefty option in future Nationals bullpens.

Thursday, July 3, 2025

2025 MLB Draft: Evaluating the Nationals' Options at the Top

The 2025 MLB Draft is upon us, and for the first time since 2010, the Nationals possess the first overall pick. It appears that two frontrunners have emerged – Oklahoma high school shortstop Ethan Holliday and LSU lefty Kade Anderson – but nothing is ever certain in the draft. By my count, without having inside information, there are likely about five other names the Nationals are likely considering at the top. It's a class without a clear top prospect, as none of the draft's biggest names has done enough to separate himself this spring and every prospect comes with some sort of blemish, however small. We'll explore the seven options below.

SS Ethan Holliday, Stillwater HS [OK]
Throughout the draft process, Ethan Holliday has been one of if not the most famous name in the class, and certainly so on the high school side. The son of former All Star Matt Holliday and brother of 2022 first overall pick and current Orioles second baseman Jackson Holliday, Ethan is a frontrunner to join his brother at the top. While his 2024 was more good than great, causing him to slip closer to the middle of the top ten prospects, he reasserted himself at the top with a strong spring blasting home runs left and right against Oklahoma high school pitching. Holliday stands out first and foremost for his power, easily plus from an ultra physical 6'4" frame reminiscent of his father. He's also a disciplined hitter with plenty of experience against top arms, though there is just enough swing and miss inside the strike zone to give some evaluators pause. Given the prodigious left handed power and a glove that will be enough to stick on the left side of the infield, likely at third base, it's clear that the Nationals aren't too concerned. He may not fly through the minors as quickly as his brother but he figures to be a star in the not-too-distant future. Brady House is at the beginning of his journey to establish himself as the team's long term answer at third base, but that's no reason to shy away from Holliday. One major factor here may be cost, as he does figure to be one of the most expensive players on the board with an Oklahoma State commitment in hand, where his uncle Josh is the head coach.

LHP Kade Anderson, Louisiana State
While Holliday has been in 1-1 discussions for years, Kade Anderson has only pushed his way into the middle of the conversation very recently. He may not be the best at any individual thing, steady performance capped with a complete game shutout in the College World Series Finals have proven that the sum of the parts rival any pitcher in the class. Listed at 6'2", 185 pounds, he's not small but still isn't the most physical arm in the class. Instead of reaching back for 100, he is content sitting in the low 90's with riding action from an otherwise normal fastball profile. His curveball has tremendous snap and keeps hitters off balance to say the least, while his newer cutter/slider has worked extremely well in addition. Anderson's changeup has also taken a step forward, giving him a full four pitch arsenal which he has great feel for. The command is also above average, which when combined with strong feel for pitching and ability to execute gives him the look of a frontline starter. With a classic starting pitching profile and a track record of performance in the SEC, Anderson is *exactly* how you would draw it up when looking for Mike Rizzo's dream pitcher at the top of the draft. He has been compared to unassuming but quietly dominant lefty aces like Cole Hamels and Max Fried. He is every bit as likely as Holliday to be the Nationals' pick at the top of the draft.

SS Eli Willits, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS [OK]
Ironically, Ethan Holliday isn't the only son of a Major Leaguer, small town Oklahoma high school shortstop on the Nats' radar for their first pick. While Holliday and Anderson are the frontrunners, Eli Willits may represent the next most likely pick and was actually invited to Nationals Park for a pre-draft workout. While not quite as tooled up as his Stillwater counterpart, Willits represents a more balanced profile that leaves scouts unable to find holes. As you'd expect from the son of Reggie Willits, he brings a high baseball IQ to the field despite being one of the youngest players in the class. Willits is a switch hitter with an approach at the plate well beyond his years, boasting a long track record of showcase performance under his belt and little fear of older pitching. Standing 6'1", he has some power but doesn't project to be a slugger, with 15-20 home runs per season looking more likely alongside high on-base percentages. It's a similar story at shortstop, where he is a sound defender and figures to stick until a twitcher, more explosive defender pushes him to third base. His Oklahoma commitment (where he would play for his father) figures to make him an expensive sign, but likely a bit cheaper than Holliday.

RHP Seth Hernandez, Corona HS [CA]
Seth Hernandez is right there with Willits in terms of the top non-Holliday or Anderson frontrunners. No high school right handed pitcher has ever been the first overall pick, but Hernandez is no ordinary high school righty and the Nationals do seem to have some interest. Simply put, he's how you draw it up. Standing 6'4", he's an athletic specimen who could be an early draft pick as a shortstop if he wasn't such a good pitcher. The fastball has hit 100 several times and comfortably sits in the mid to upper 90's, already giving him the look of a big league pitcher. His feel for spin was previously a bit of a knock against him, but he's sharpened up his breaking balls this spring and now looks to have a plus curveball and above average slider. The changeup has always been a weapon, giving him a full arsenal of big league pitches. While the command isn't pinpoint, Hernandez repeats his delivery well and hits his spots better than most high school arms, especially those with stuff as loud as his. High school pitchers, especially right handers, are among the riskiest picks you can make, but the Southern California product checks just about every box and will require much less development than most. He's committed to Vanderbilt and also figures to be expensive, but it seems that many of the teams picking immediately behind the Nationals are focused elsewhere and their main competition could come from teams picking outside the top five.

LHP Liam Doyle, Tennessee
If the Nationals go college pitcher, Kade Anderson is the clear frontrunner. However, Liam Doyle has arguably the loudest fastball in the country and I'm sure Mike Rizzo has checked in. The Angels, picking second, appear to be very interested and many mock drafts have him landing in Los Angeles. Doyle, a New Hampshire native, began his career at Coastal Carolina, transferred to Ole Miss for his sophomore year, then bounced to Tennessee as a junior this year. The fastball really ticked up and he wound up with one of the most eye popping seasons in the country, striking out a whopping 42.6% of his opponents on the way to an NCAA-second best 164 strikeouts, behind only Anderson's 180. The fastball steals the show in the mid 90's, peaking a 99, with explosive life through the zone that keeps hitters coming up empty even when they know it's coming. He has a traditional slider as well as more of a cutter, both above average pitches that will keep pro hitters off his fastball. While he doesn't use it as much, his splitter looks like it could be another solid pitch as he gains feel. While Anderson and Doyle both stand 6'2", Anderson is more of a string bean while Doyle brings a stockier build. He's not a great athlete and throws with some effort, creating some reliever risk, but pounded the zone with a solid 8.3% walk rate this year and held his velocity deep into starts. He could rocket to Nationals Park even though his edges are a littler rougher than Anderson's.

LHP Jamie Arnold, Florida State
A couple months ago, Jamie Arnold may have actually been a frontrunner for this spot alongside Ethan Holliday, but his star has faded just enough to push him closer to the back half of the top ten picks. Still, this is a loud profile and one the Nationals surely have watched closely all spring. Many a sidearming left hander has been compared to Chris Sale, and Arnold fits the bill. His low to mid 90's fastball reaches 97 at peak and runs hard to the arm side from his ultra low slot. The slider dives across the plate in the opposite direction, off the bat giving him two easy plus pitches that could get big league hitters out today. To reach his ceiling as a front of the rotation starter, he'll need to continue getting comfortable with his changeup, which is making progress but isn't quite at the level of consistency of his primary two pitches. Unlike most lefties with explosive stuff, the Tampa native also commands his arsenal very well, running a very solid 7.7% walk rate in 2025 and giving him a very well rounded profile. While he wasn't quite as electric down the stretch as some of the other college pitchers at the top of this class, his combination of stuff, deception, command, and handedness is hard to find. Arnold would likely be a bit cheaper than some of the names above him here and would enable the Nationals to spend big on a later pick.

SS Aiva Arquette, Oregon State
Aiva Arquette is more or less the consensus top college hitting prospect in the class, with significant heat linking him to the Mariners at #3 or potentially even the Angels at #2. However, after drafting fellow college infielder Seaver King with their first pick last year, the Nationals do appear to be looking elsewhere for their pick at #1. Still, for an organization that has really, really struggled to develop bats, we shouldn't look past the possibility of Washington getting something relatively big league ready in that department. Arquette had a fantastic year at Oregon State and looks the part of a well-rounded prospect with few holes and plenty of upside. Standing 6'4", he has plus power and got to it consistently in 2025 as he showed the ability to elevate with authority. The hit tool is probably closer to average than plus, as he showed some in-zone swing and miss and can chase occasionally, but there is nothing glaring in that department and he still got on base at a .461 clip this year (and a nice .357 looking back to the Cape Cod League in 2024). He's big for a shortstop, but has impressed scouts with his actions there this spring and figures to stick at least at the outset of his career. If not, he'd be a well above average third baseman. In all, this profile is not too dissimilar to a right handed Ethan Holliday, with a bit better defense and a slightly less polished approach relative to his age group. Like Arnold and potentially Doyle or Willits, he could be a bit cheaper and save the Nationals some money for later rounds.

Dark Horse Candidates
At this point, I have a hard time seeing the Nationals selecting a player not listed above. That said, there are a few that have likely at least been brought up in draft room conversations in Washington and could conceivably fit the bill. Shortstop Billy Carlson, a teammate of Seth Hernandez at Corona High School, is a strong athlete with an elite glove. He has grown into more and more impact as he's matured, though he might be more of a .260 hitter than a .300 hitter at maturity. There are some parallels to Masyn Winn here and he likely finds himself closer to the back of the top ten picks. Right hander Kyson Witherspoon had a fantastic season at Oklahoma, running his fastball up to 99 while showing real feel for spin and keeping the walks way down. The Nationals likely feel that they can get similar upside in a left handed package, and Witherspoon may fall out of the top ten picks. Auburn's Ike Irish has been pushing his way up boards as of late, showing arguably the most potent bat in all of college baseball. It's very real power combined with strong bat to ball that makes him a virtual lock to hit at a high level in the big leagues. However, as a part time catcher who may fit better in an outfield corner, he doesn't fit the up-the-middle profile the Nationals and most teams seek at the top of the draft. Shortstop JoJo Parker has been another buzzy name late in the process, wowing scouts in Southern Mississippi with one of the most complete offensive profiles in the country. He's physical, shows above average power, and hits everything thrown at him. Like Ethan Holliday, he may slide to third base, but the bat is for real. He may not get out of the top ten picks. Lastly, this would probably be the biggest stretch in this dark horse section but UC Santa Barbara righty Tyler Bremner has quietly re-emerged as a premium pitching prospect. A 1-1 candidate before the season, he slipped back towards the middle of the first round as his stuff looked more ordinary, but he got hot down the stretch and is back to looking like himself. It's plenty of fastball up to 98 while his changeup might be the best cambio in the class. Bremner's slider isn't quite the wipeout pitch you look for at the top of the draft, but he makes up for it with above average command and a solid pitcher's frame. It's a traditional profile that fits the Mike Rizzo mold, though he likely fits just outside the top ten picks.

Tuesday, January 28, 2025

2025 MLB Draft: Ten candidates to go first overall

For the second consecutive season, the Washington Nationals have won the MLB Draft Lottery, and for the third straight year they have positioned themselves for a top-two pick. They were ineligible to claim that number one overall pick last year and wound up selecting Seaver King tenth overall, but this time they'll do so for the first time since selecting Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper first overall in back to back drafts in 2009 and 2010. There is no clear frontrunner at this point, with bats Ethan Holliday and Jace LaViolette seemingly separating themselves as the most famous prospects in the draft for now, but pure hit tool questions are present for both. Behind them, two college arms have risen to the top of a shallow class in that regard, while Holliday narrowly leads an incredibly deep class of high school bats.

LHP Jamie Arnold, Florida State. My rank: #1.
Between Jamie Arnold and Tyler Bremner, the clear cut top two college arms in this class, Bremner is the more traditional prospect while Arnold brings a more unique, new school profile. That would seemingly make Bremner the more likely target for Washington, a more traditional organization, but Arnold has been so good that he's certainly worth keeping an eye on and he has pushed to the top of my draft board. In a year where offense was up across the board, Arnold seemingly missed the memo and went 11-3 with a 2.89 ERA and 159 strikeouts, the latter of which was far and away the highest total of any underclassman in the country – the next best sophomore was Wofford righty Zac Cowan, whose 124 strikeouts came while pitching against weaker competition in the SoCon as opposed to Arnold's ACC schedule. The stuff here is dynamite. Arnold's low to mid 90's fastball peaks at 97, impressive velocity for a lefty in its own right. His best pitch is a plus slider that dives across the plate with a foot of sweeping action, sending ACC hitters flailing and likely to make even MLB hitters look foolish when he snaps it right. While he primarily relies on the fastball and slider, his changeup has made strides and is looking like a solid average pitch with above average flashes and could be a game changer if it continues to improve. Everything plays up out of Arnold's hand due to his sidearm delivery, creating an ultra low release height that creates a very uncomfortable at bat for hitters. The low release point puts more run and sink on his fastball than ride, but it's still effective both up and down in the zone. Meanwhile, the 6'1" lefty has one more trait that makes him a unicorn, and that's his command. If it's tough enough facing a sidearming lefty with a fastball up to 97 and a devastating slider, he compounds that by pounding the strike zone and walking just 5.8% of his opponents last year, a feat virtually unheard of from his profile. The Tampa native has true ace upside if he can continue to develop on a normal path.
What the Nationals will look for in 2025: The book is straightforward here. The fastball and slider are good to go. Arnold's biggest focus should be refining his changeup, as continuing its positive trajectory by upping its usage in 2025 and truly incorporating it into his arsenal will make him a complete pitcher. I believe he can do it. Then of course, command is always the last X factor. Arnold has the command right now, so he'll simply need to avoid taking a step back in that regard in 2025. Though it's not the profile the Nationals look for, a three pitch lefty with explosive stuff and above average command will be hard for Mike Rizzo to overlook.

OF Jace LaViolette, Texas A&M. My rank: #2.
At this point, Jace LaViolette appears to be the very slight frontrunner as the best prospect in the class. A superstar since his very first days on campus at Texas A&M, he has done nothing but blast fifty home runs and slash .297/.433/.683 in 132 games for the Aggies so far, all before he could legally buy a drink. If the Nationals want an impact bat at the top of the draft, they should look no further. The power is unquestionable. Standing 6'6", LaViolette's left handed swing is naturally geared towards lofting balls to the pull side while his extra large frame provides the power to send balls rocketing off his barrel. While the swing is more pull-oriented, he has more than enough power to leave the park to any field at any time, and his 29 home runs in 2024 were the most by any non-draft-eligible college hitter last year. The Houston-area native is a patient hitter who also led all underclassmen with 64 walks last season, helping him spit on breaking balls and get that fastball he loves to crush. LaViolette's primary weakness is against quality offspeed in the zone, with his long levers causing some swing and miss issues that led to an elevated 24.3% strikeout rate last year. No matter how much power you have, striking out a quarter of the time makes it tough to get drafted in the first round, let alone first overall. Last year, only two first rounders ran strikeout rates of 20% or higher – #12 pick Braden Montgomery (20%) and #22 pick Vance Honeycutt (27.5%). LaViolette is a solid runner underway, though at his size he lacks the quick twitch first step to play center field and likely settles into right field, where he should be an above average defender with an above average arm. These days many tall college sluggers get compared to Aaron Judge, but it's an apt comp for LaViolette with the caveat that he bats left handed. As it stands today, no hitter in this draft has a better chance to anchor a big league lineup as an MVP-caliber bat.
What the Nationals will look for in 2025: The power is there. The approach is there. He's gotten opportunities to play center field while in college and while proving he could stick there would go a long way towards slotting him into the first overall pick, that does seem a bit unlikely and the Nationals are probably more or less comfortable projecting him as a right fielder. That leaves the hit tool as the primary barometer here. If he can continue to keep the chases down and cut down the in zone swing and miss, getting his strikeout rate under about 20% or preferably even lower would be the best thing he could do for his chances to go first overall.

RHP Tyler Bremner, UC Santa Barbara. My rank: #3.
It's a very different profile, but Tyler Bremner is every bit as talented as Jamie Arnold and as a more traditional starting pitcher, he probably fits the Nationals' mold a little better. Bremner was one of the better pitching prospects in Southern California in 2022, but made it to campus at UC Santa Barbara and broke out for an excellent 2024 in which he went 11-1 with a 2.54 ERA and a 104/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.2 innings. The fastball sits mid 90's and touches 98, a tick harder than Arnold, coming in with a ton of riding life out of a relatively low release point. He throws a plus slider that works between a sweeper and more of a gyro pitch, getting the type of break he needs for the situation. A separator here from Arnold, though is his changeup. While Arnold is mostly a fastball/slider guy right now, Bremner might have the best changeup in the draft with massive drop that just dives under bats with ease. Listed at 6'2", 190 pounds, he's big enough to handle a starter's workload and repeats his delivery well, helping him pound the strike zone with average command and above average control. It's an extremely well-rounded profile with no holes, with a high probability of becoming a mid-rotation starter or better.
What the Nationals will look for in 2025: Bremner already has a chance for three plus pitches, so there's nothing on the to-do list there. Like most college pitchers, he'll just need to focus on the two classics – stay healthy and stay in the strike zone. Having already thrown 144 innings over two years in Santa Barbara thus far, health hasn't been an issue yet, and his 6.4% career walk rate is plenty low enough to satisfy a picky front office. Fine tuning his command within the zone while maintaining his high end stuff could get him over the hump to the first overall pick.

SS Ethan Holliday, Stillwater HS [OK]. My rank: #4.
Three years ago, Jackson Holliday was the first overall pick of the 2022 draft, but younger brother Ethan enters his senior season at Stillwater High School in Oklahoma as a much better prospect. Jackson entered the 2022 draft cycle with more of an early second round projection, then came out for his senior year looking significantly more physical and put up a fantastic season to push his way to the top of the draft. Ethan, however, is already there and the 1-1 spot is well within reach. First off, he has four inches and fifteen-plus pounds on his older brother, leading to a very different profile. While Jackson was a hit-over-power type who grew into his pop, Ethan easily projects for plus power with a powerful left handed swing that naturally lofts the ball to make use of his imposing 6'4" frame. Having grown up around the game with a pair of Oklahoma State head coaches in his family and an MLB All Star father, Holliday's high baseball IQ is apparent on the field. He controls the strike zone well and taps his power in games, though at this point his long levers can create some swing and miss in the zone. At the top of the draft, defensive value is important, and Ethan provides that as well. A shortstop at present, he shows the same polish and baseball IQ on the dirt with smooth actions and a strong arm, though his size and lack of first step quickness will likely push him to third base in the long run. He'll still be solid to above average at the hot corner. While some prospect fatigue may have set in at this point, it would be perfectly reasonable for Holliday to match his older brother's draft position on his way to belting 30+ home runs annually to go with solid on-base percentages with a strong glove on the left side of the infield.
What the Nationals will look for in 2025: Holliday's biggest obstacle may be prospect fatigue at this point, having been closely followed since his freshman year of high school, which was also his brother's senior year. No one is questioning the power, but he'll have to make more contact than perhaps others in his position to stop that prospect fatigue from creeping up. More evaluators have questioned his pure bat to ball over the past six months ago, and while he won't face the toughest competition in northern Oklahoma, he'll want to keep the swing and miss to a minimum. Additionally, it will be helpful to show a little more athleticism to give hope he can stick at shortstop.

RHP Seth Hernandez, Corona HS [CA]. My rank: #6.
No high school right handed pitcher has ever gone first overall, and with NIL drawing more talent to college and teams pivoting just a little bit away from pitchers early in the draft, it seems less likely than ever to happen. Over the past seventeen years, the Nationals have drafted just one high school pitcher, Mason Denaburg (2018), in the first round. Seth Hernandez, though, has a chance to be the best high school pitching prospect since Jackson Jobe in 2021, and for that reason it's not out of the question that he ends both of those droughts. It's a huge right arm that sits in the mid 90's and reached triple digits over the summer, though the pitch stands out more for its velocity than its movement. His breaking ball is still searching for its identity, ranging from slurvy curveball to a cuttery sweeper to more of a bullet slider. At this point, that's the lone hole in his profile. Similar to Tyler Bremner, he throws a devastating changeup with late diving action that leaves high school hitters helpless, a true separator for a teenage pitcher. Though he's up there tickling triple digits, Hernandez has a smooth, athletic delivery with little wasted movement and nice extension down the mound. That lets him pound the strike zone with reasonably solid command, which should hold as he continues to fill out. The Southern California native has top of the rotation upside if he puts it together.
What the Nationals will look for in 2025: Health and command are evergreen checkboxes in this section for any pitcher, and of course Hernandez needs to stay healthy and throw his share of strikes. The big opportunity here, though, will be his breaking ball. His fastball and changeup are already both plus pitches, so finding a more consistent slider and/or curveball could make him a truly complete pitching prospect. At present, he probably belongs more in the 5-10 range on talent (bonus demands notwithstanding).

SS Eli Willits, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS [OK]. My rank: #7.
We're going to talk about Jackson Holliday again. While his younger brother, Ethan, is arguably the most famous name in this draft and has his sights set on 1-1, it's actually Eli Willits who shares the most similarities to the Orioles' shortstop of the future. Willits, like Holliday, is the son of a former major leaguer and current college coach, Reggie Willits, and lives in rural Oklahoma. With a similar average frame that isn't quite physically mature yet and a game predicated more on polish than present physicality, extending further similarities to Holliday. Holliday came out for his senior season in 2022 looking more physical than he had in the past, and early indications are that Willits may be in the same boat which is creating significant heat for the prep infielder. He's a switch hitter with a very simple swing from both sides of the plate, using his excellent plate coverage to go with the pitch and drive the ball with authority to all fields consistently. This has enabled him to be one of the top performers on the showcase circuit for a long time despite playing against much older competition – he only turned 17 in December, making him a full year younger, even a year in a half in some cases, than most of his counterparts. The power isn't quite there yet, as he's listed at just 165 pounds for now and needs to really turn on and crank the ball to get it out. That's where the age comes in again, with the hope that his youth brings significant added physicality going forward. Similar to his offense, he brings a polished glove at shortstop with above average arm and range to give him a good shot to stick at the premium position. He's also quick enough to play center field if needed, but the Nationals likely won't need that with much more depth in the grass than the dirt.
What the Nationals will look for in 2025: Jackson Holliday entered his senior season with a strikingly similar profile to Eli Willits, then came out looking much more physical in the spring. It appears Willits is tacking on physicality as well, so if added impact and over the fence power comes this spring as well, he could follow the exact same path to the first overall pick. He's set to play his entire pro debut at 17 years old, so the power should be coming. Proving he can stick at shortstop, which is not unlikely, will also help.

SS Aiva Arquette, Oregon State. My rank: #11.
The top prospect in a loaded Oregon State lineup that also includes Trent Caraway (#26), Gavin Turley (#33), and Dallas Macias (unranked), Aiva Arquette is a scout favorite who seems to be a "pick to click" for many. A highly regarded high school prospect from the Honolulu area, he put up a strong sophomore season at Washington in 2024 (12 HR, .325/.384/.574) then raised his profile further by hitting .291/.357/.437 on the Cape and impressing evaluators as he improved throughout. Clocking in at 6'4", 220 pounds, he has a big league body right now and has seen his on-field production steadily improve to match. He channels that size into above average power which he taps naturally with the ability to drive the ball in the air with authority. His approach is somewhat aggressive, which has led to subpar strikeout to walk ratios in Seattle and on the Cape, but he makes plenty of contact despite a swoopier right handed swing and is trending hard in the right direction. His bigger size might make shortstop a tough sell, but he has the mobility and arm strength to play an above average third base down the road. Similar to his offense, scouts have been impressed by the progress he's made with his glove and some believe he can stick at shortstop. With his glove and bat both trending hard in the right direction, he has a chance to turn himself into an above average all around hitter with the defense to stick on the left side of the infield and a track record of hitting through high school, college, and summer leagues.
What the Nationals will look for in 2025: Arquette may not be the flashiest option at the top of the draft, but if he cuts his chases in 2025, the strikeout rate will likely follow and he'll have a very productive season in Corvallis. Additionally, continuing to show well at shortstop will up his value if the Nationals believe he can stick there. If Arquette does go first overall, he would likely be an under-slot option due to a lower ceiling.

LHP Cameron Appenzeller, Glenwood HS [IL]. My rank: #15.
Glenwood High School just outside of Springfield, Illinois has produced numerous major leaguers, most notably former Nationals star Jayson Werth. If Mike Rizzo wants another Glenwood alumnus, Cameron Appenzeller could be an interesting option. As mentioned under Seth Hernandez, the Nationals have taken just one high school pitcher in the first round over the past seventeen years, but it can always happen. Appenzeller is a 6'6" lefty, which will already make scouts sit up and take notice. The fastball isn't overwhelming, sitting in the low 90's and peaking around 94, and he works between both a four and two seam. He has a nice, deep slider with plenty of sweep that he shows good feel for, working it to both sides of the plate and understanding how to deploy it to get the best results. His changeup gives him a third solid option with nice fade. Appenzeller does not sell out for velocity, instead using an athletic, free and easy delivery to help him pound the strike zone with better command than most high school pitchers. His low three quarters arm slot creates a tough look for hitters, with a low, wide release point and an east-west profile. He's not quite a top ten pick at this point, but he could get there quickly as soon as the Southern Illinois weather warms up this spring with all the ingredients to become an ace.
What the Nationals will look for in 2025: Command is always the X factor, and while he shows good command for a high school arm, Appenzeller of course has a long ways to go in that regard like any teenager. In order to vault into the 1-1 conversation, though, he'll need to add significant velocity to his fastball and power to his breaking ball. With plenty of projection, that could certainly happen if he comes out a little more filled out this spring. Those strength gains would also allow the velocity to come naturally so that he can keep pounding the strike zone with his low effort delivery. Appenzeller has ace upside if he adds power across his arsenal.

SS Dean Curley, Tennessee. My rank: #18.
We're moving farther away from the current contenders for the first overall pick, but I'm a believer in Dean Curley's skill set and I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit his way to the top. It's not easy to barge into Knoxville and claim the starting shortstop role as a freshman, but Curley did just that and hit .285/.386/.502 in 67 games last year. Having turned 19 while he was still in high school, he entered school the age of a college sophomore and will be draft-eligible and age-appropriate this year. He's a lean, physical 6'3" with an efficient right handed swing that causes the ball to jump off his bat with eye-popping exit velocities, lending to above average power.  Meanwhile, he's a disciplined hitter that makes contact at a high rate, which kept his strikeout rate to a reasonable 17.5% as a freshman and which will likely help him lower it further in 2025. Together, as he fills out his still-projectable frame, he has a chance to become an above average hitter with above average power. He doesn't have quite as much juice as last year's eighth overall pick and former Volunteer Christian Moore, and he's a better pure hitter, but his balanced bat could help him break out in a similar way in 2025. To this point, Curley has shown well at shortstop with the requisite instincts and mobility to go with a cannon right arm. Most projections have him moving to third base in time, where like Aiva Arquette he'll fit better given his size and lack of explosive athleticism.
What the Nationals will look for in 2025: I don't think there is one specific X factor for Curley. Last year, his under-the-hood numbers were better than his surface numbers, and he'll look for the latter to catch up to the former in 2025. The Nationals don't necessarily need major leaps from Curley in any one area, rather they'll look for him to elevate his game by about a half grade or so in all aspects - power, contact, defense, and overall athleticism. I'm a believer that Curley can do that.

RHP Chase Shores, Louisiana State. My rank: #38.
If the draft were today, Chase Shores may not even go in the first round, but he may have the best chance of any non-first round prospects at this point to push himself into consideration at the top of the draft. Shores was a well-known prospect out of high school in West Texas, then showed well to start his freshman season at LSU in 2023. Unfortunately, he went down with Tommy John surgery after seven appearances and missed his entire sophomore season, so he enters 2025 with just 18.1 innings under his belt. However, his huge stuff gives him every chance to vault forward. Listed at a massive 6'8", 245 pounds, he comes with as much arm strength as any pitcher in the class, capable of sitting in the mid to upper 90's for innings at a time and touching as high as 102 back in high school. The slider has big potential, too, with his best flashing plus with hard two-plane snap, though it can be inconsistent. His changeup plays well off his fastball and could be an above average pitch with increased usage, giving him a chance for three above average to plus pitches. The delivery is a bit raw at this point, but it's important to note that he hasn't had much chance to work on it since coming to campus. He showed fringy command in his brief stint in 2023.
What the Nationals will look for in 2025: To put it simply, everything. They'll want to see him come back healthy, first and foremost, and shoulder a full season's load. Then, they'll look to see if he has ironed out his delivery now that he's healthy and hopefully work to average or better command. Above average command would of course be a long shot, but the stuff is so loud that he might still be a National with average command if everything else breaks right. If that slider that has ranged between average and plus can come out more consistently plus this spring, and if the changeup can emerge as consistently above average, then he might be just fine with average command and a fastball approaching triple digits. It's a long to-do list, but Shores has very little mileage on his arm since coming to Baton Rouge and a clean bill of health could be just what the doctor ordered.

Other Options
#5 3B Xavier Neyens, Mount Vernon HS [WA]
#8 OF Cam Cannarella, Clemson
#9 SS/RHP Billy Carlson, Corona HS [CA]
#13 OF Sean Gamble, IMG Academy [FL]
#16 LHP/1B Kruz Schoolcraft, Sunset HS [OR]